Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 60 ) - Language, Truth & Logic ( 語言，真理與邏輯 ) - March, 1, 2011
The brilliant British philosopher Sir Alfred J. Ayer ( who advocates logical positivism ) once created a very simple approach to classifying the nature of all our statements into just two main categories. The first type concerns " expression of ideas " that do not relate to our real life experience. These are called " analytical statements ". They deal with logic ( including mathematical logic ) and rationale and, therefore, concern " relations of ideas " that are abstracted from the real world. The second type concerns " matters of fact " which Ayer called " empirical statements ". The latter type can be proved or disproved through our observational evidence. For example, the statement - the sun rises in the east - is an empirical statement. On the other hand, the statement - one plus one equals two - is an analytical statement that can only be proven right or wrong through logic ( in this case, mathematical logic ) but not through empirical facts. One further word of caution on " analytical statements " must be mentioned here. The basic assumptions behind " analytical statements " must be known before we can decide on their validity. In the last example, we have already implied that we are using the normal scale of 10 as our basis because if we were using the binary ( 2 ) scale one plus one will equal 10.
超卓的英國哲學家A.J. Ayer ( 埃雅 ），曾開創先河， 把我們所有言論，分為兩大類。第一類是有關主意和概念的言論，他稱之為純分析性的言論，是與現實無直接關係的， 只關乎邏輯和推理，是主意與概念之間的關係。第二類，是關乎現實的言論，他稱之為關乎事實的言論。這類言論可以用事實去證明其真偽。例如，太陽是從東方升起的。相反，一加一等於二，這是純分析性的言論，只可從邏輯 （ 數學邏輯 ）和推理證明其真偽。在這裡，我必須指出一點，有關純分析性的言論，我們要先弄清楚相關的明顯或背面的假定，才可正確判斷其真偽。以上述為例，我們已暗示使用十進制度，假若是二進制，一加一便等於十了。
Very often, we argue on crossed purposes because we fail to distinguish between the two types of statements thus applying the wrong reasoning method. Also, we may not have defined the terms we use properly or their underlying or implicit assumptions for that matter. The simple guide lines to avoid mixed up thinking or unnecessary arguments are two fold. Firstly, distinguish between the two types of statement. Secondly, apply the correct method of verifying them. That is to say applying the relevant facts to verify the truth or falsehood of " empirical statements " while applying the relevant logic to " analytical statements " after ascertaining all explicit and implicit assumptions. This will make us smart thinkers and a modern global citizen.
我們經常被捲入一些不必要的爭辯，多數是因為不能分辨二者，所以可能用了錯誤的分析方法。也許我們未清楚說明所用名詞或暗示式假設，引起無謂之爭論。其實 運用些簡單指引，便可化解問題。這些指引分為兩個層次，第一是把兩種言論分辨出來。第二是用相關的分析方法證明其真偽。前者用事實加以驗證，後者便用相關 邏輯推理，以定真假。這樣，我們便可以擁有醒目的思維，配為一個現代世界公民。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Monday, February 28, 2011
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 59 ) - Feb., 27, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 59 ) - Static and Dynamic Thinking ( 靜態和動態思維 ) - Feb., 27, 2011
Analyzing facts and figures is part and parcel of our daily thinking process. To think smart which is a prerequisite for a modern global citizen we must know something about these two terms. Static means seeing the facts as they stand and dynamic means anticipating the impact of related factors on those facts. Also, static implies seeing the situation as a picture at a single moment while dynamic requires the realizing the relevant trend by projecting into the future. Most of our daily analysis proves to be less effective in terms of predictive power and efficiency because they are static rather than dynamic.
分析事實和統計數據，是我們日常思考的一部分。作為現代世界世公民，我們必須擁有醒目的思維，如要這樣，我們需要了解靜態和動態的思維的分別。靜態是表示 以事實的表面意義和單方面加以分析， 動態思維就是考慮和預計其他相關因素在內。再者，靜態亦表示只看某一定點時間的情形，動態卻要估計和預測將來走勢及動向，作全面評估。我們通常對事物的分 析，多缺乏可靠和準確預測，主要是因為它們多是靜態的分析和考慮。
All statistics are by nature historical facts. Reliance on history normally gives a fair prediction of future events if and only if past circumstances hold true till the projected future point in time. Furthermore, statistics are not precise description of reality. Take this for example, an average middle aged American as the statistics say has an average annual income of US$65,000, 2.5 cars and 1.2 children. Obviously, no one can have 2.5 cars and 1.2 children. Therefore, blindly using statistics will reduce us to mechanical robots.
所有統計數據，都是歷史塵蹟。倚賴它們去預測未來，必須有賴於舊事或過往因素的有效性，才有機會作出正確的預測和分析。例如，統計數字顯示，一個普通的美 國中年人，平均年薪為＄65000美元，擁有2.5部汽車和1.2個子女。明顯地，沒有人會能擁有2.5部汽車和1.2個子女的。明顯地，沒有人會可能擁有 2.5部汽車和1.2個子女的。盲目地跟隨數字，只會令人變成機械人，不能變通。
To give you a more tangible example of dynamic analysis or planning, I will cite my own experience in my past voluntary work in China. During 2002 or thereabout my friends and I operated some sort of cooperative arrangement in northern Guangdong besides teaching the children English. We donated some money to set up a fund to make $1,000 interest free loans to farmers to raise chickens to supplement their income. They must repay the loan within a fixed period and the fund will continue to assist other farmers in the same way. Statistics show that the majority are self sufficient in food but so short of cash that their children cannot afford to pay for bus fares to attend classes. Many have to walk 4 hours on a round trip to and from school daily. Rather than handing out charity which is a passive and static way of assistance we decided to take a more dynamic approach to invite their participation in their own financial assistance. This will also give them the dignity of self help as well. So, everyone is happy and proud. Therefore, it is always wiser to think in a dynamic rather than a static manner.
再次以一個確實的例子和本人的體驗，以作說明。在2002年間，我和朋友在中國廣東北部山區，進行一些志願教育工作，給貧困學生教授英文，其間也做些扶貧 工作。照數據顯示，多數農民衣食自足，但現金短缺，引至學童要每天花四小時步行上學。我們便捐款成立基金，貸款為數$1000, 給與貧窮戶，作為養雞幫助家計，並定時償還，再次幫助其他人，令他們自力更生。這樣一來，我們便不只被動和消極地施捨他人，更加顧及他們的自尊，皆大歡 喜。這便是考慮其他因素和效益，動態的思維和分析了。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Analyzing facts and figures is part and parcel of our daily thinking process. To think smart which is a prerequisite for a modern global citizen we must know something about these two terms. Static means seeing the facts as they stand and dynamic means anticipating the impact of related factors on those facts. Also, static implies seeing the situation as a picture at a single moment while dynamic requires the realizing the relevant trend by projecting into the future. Most of our daily analysis proves to be less effective in terms of predictive power and efficiency because they are static rather than dynamic.
分析事實和統計數據，是我們日常思考的一部分。作為現代世界世公民，我們必須擁有醒目的思維，如要這樣，我們需要了解靜態和動態的思維的分別。靜態是表示 以事實的表面意義和單方面加以分析， 動態思維就是考慮和預計其他相關因素在內。再者，靜態亦表示只看某一定點時間的情形，動態卻要估計和預測將來走勢及動向，作全面評估。我們通常對事物的分 析，多缺乏可靠和準確預測，主要是因為它們多是靜態的分析和考慮。
All statistics are by nature historical facts. Reliance on history normally gives a fair prediction of future events if and only if past circumstances hold true till the projected future point in time. Furthermore, statistics are not precise description of reality. Take this for example, an average middle aged American as the statistics say has an average annual income of US$65,000, 2.5 cars and 1.2 children. Obviously, no one can have 2.5 cars and 1.2 children. Therefore, blindly using statistics will reduce us to mechanical robots.
所有統計數據，都是歷史塵蹟。倚賴它們去預測未來，必須有賴於舊事或過往因素的有效性，才有機會作出正確的預測和分析。例如，統計數字顯示，一個普通的美 國中年人，平均年薪為＄65000美元，擁有2.5部汽車和1.2個子女。明顯地，沒有人會能擁有2.5部汽車和1.2個子女的。明顯地，沒有人會可能擁有 2.5部汽車和1.2個子女的。盲目地跟隨數字，只會令人變成機械人，不能變通。
To give you a more tangible example of dynamic analysis or planning, I will cite my own experience in my past voluntary work in China. During 2002 or thereabout my friends and I operated some sort of cooperative arrangement in northern Guangdong besides teaching the children English. We donated some money to set up a fund to make $1,000 interest free loans to farmers to raise chickens to supplement their income. They must repay the loan within a fixed period and the fund will continue to assist other farmers in the same way. Statistics show that the majority are self sufficient in food but so short of cash that their children cannot afford to pay for bus fares to attend classes. Many have to walk 4 hours on a round trip to and from school daily. Rather than handing out charity which is a passive and static way of assistance we decided to take a more dynamic approach to invite their participation in their own financial assistance. This will also give them the dignity of self help as well. So, everyone is happy and proud. Therefore, it is always wiser to think in a dynamic rather than a static manner.
再次以一個確實的例子和本人的體驗，以作說明。在2002年間，我和朋友在中國廣東北部山區，進行一些志願教育工作，給貧困學生教授英文，其間也做些扶貧 工作。照數據顯示，多數農民衣食自足，但現金短缺，引至學童要每天花四小時步行上學。我們便捐款成立基金，貸款為數$1000, 給與貧窮戶，作為養雞幫助家計，並定時償還，再次幫助其他人，令他們自力更生。這樣一來，我們便不只被動和消極地施捨他人，更加顧及他們的自尊，皆大歡 喜。這便是考慮其他因素和效益，動態的思維和分析了。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 58 ) - Feb., 25, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 58 ) - Micro and Macro View ( 微觀與宏觀 ) - Feb., 25, 2011
To be a smart thinker we must avoid all fatal pitfalls in our reasoning process. Normally, one plus one equals two. However, there are exceptions to the rule. The difference between micro and macro situations is a case in point. Micro view generally refers to the individual unit's perspective while macro means from the point of view of the whole environment or group like society at large. For example, psychology is the study of individual behaviour and sociology concerns behaviours as a group. Similarly, microeconomics is the study of behaviour of an individual economic entity and macroeconomics concerns the working of the whole economy.
要有醒目的思維，我們必須避免思想上的誤差。在普通情況，一加一是會等於二，但是也有例外的情況。微觀與宏觀的不同角度，便是屬於這種例外了。微觀是指以個人單位的看法，而宏觀就是以整體或者社會的角度看事物。例如，心理學是有關個人行為思想。而社會學就是群體或社會性的行為和反應。同樣地，微觀經濟是有關經濟個體的行為和反應，宏觀經濟是關乎整體或整個社會的研究。
There is a well known phenomenon in economics called the " paradox of thrift ". On the individual level, the more a person saves the richer he or she becomes. On the contrary, if society as a whole decreases its total spending the whole economy becomes poorer due to the multiplier effect. As you save $100 from your usual weekend dining the restaurant in question loses $100 business. If more people are doing just that the restaurant owner will have to reduce the number of staff and related food supply. The sagged staff will in turn have to reduce their spending due to their job loss by cutting say, their usual weekend movie. As more unemployed people do that the theatre may have to close down creating more unemployed people who must again reduce their usual spending in turn. So, the initial reduction of your $100 can add up to $100 plus the reduced spending of the sagged restaurant workers plus that of the unemployed theatre staff and so on. This is the negative multiplier effect. To prevent this disastrous scenario from happening, the government must increase public spending in infrastructure construction or use tax reduction to prop up consumption ( fiscal measures ) or reduce interest rates to encourage more private consumption ( monetary measures ) to avoid an economic recession.
在經濟學上，有一個出名的現象，名叫「節約的反效果」。在微觀層面，一個人儲蓄越多，個人便越富有。相反地，在社會層面，如果總消費減少，便會產生倍數的經 濟收縮。原因是這樣的，當你少花費$100去吃一個週末晚餐時， 餐館便失去$100生意，多了人節約，餐館老闆可能要裁員。失業的人或者要節省而不再看週末電影，這樣一來，戲院老闆又要裁員自保。這樣一來，整個社會便 損失了不止原本的$100,並且加上餐館和戲院失業員工的減少花費，形成惡性循環，消費倍數減少。要避免這種損害，政府必須增加公共開支 （ 財政措施），或者以減少稅收來刺激經濟增長。減低利息 （ 金融措施），也可以刺激消費。
The lesson to be learned here is that more is different due to complex human behaviour and interaction. Therefore, things must not be viewed in isolation but must be put in the proper perspective of the whole situation. One citizen throwing one piece of rubbish is not a big problem ( micro view ) but everyone doing that will cost society billions of dollars disposing of rubbish ( the macro view ). Thus, we must think smart as modern global citizens.
從以上例子，我們可以得到以下教訓，就是多了互動單位和因素，結果完全會與單一因素不同。因此，分析事物必須整體和全面作考慮。一個人拋一點垃圾不成大問 題（ 微觀看法），每一個人都是垃圾蟲，便要社會支付數以千萬的費用來處理了（ 宏觀看法）。因此，作為今天的世界公民，我們必須擁有醒目的思維。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
To be a smart thinker we must avoid all fatal pitfalls in our reasoning process. Normally, one plus one equals two. However, there are exceptions to the rule. The difference between micro and macro situations is a case in point. Micro view generally refers to the individual unit's perspective while macro means from the point of view of the whole environment or group like society at large. For example, psychology is the study of individual behaviour and sociology concerns behaviours as a group. Similarly, microeconomics is the study of behaviour of an individual economic entity and macroeconomics concerns the working of the whole economy.
要有醒目的思維，我們必須避免思想上的誤差。在普通情況，一加一是會等於二，但是也有例外的情況。微觀與宏觀的不同角度，便是屬於這種例外了。微觀是指以個人單位的看法，而宏觀就是以整體或者社會的角度看事物。例如，心理學是有關個人行為思想。而社會學就是群體或社會性的行為和反應。同樣地，微觀經濟是有關經濟個體的行為和反應，宏觀經濟是關乎整體或整個社會的研究。
There is a well known phenomenon in economics called the " paradox of thrift ". On the individual level, the more a person saves the richer he or she becomes. On the contrary, if society as a whole decreases its total spending the whole economy becomes poorer due to the multiplier effect. As you save $100 from your usual weekend dining the restaurant in question loses $100 business. If more people are doing just that the restaurant owner will have to reduce the number of staff and related food supply. The sagged staff will in turn have to reduce their spending due to their job loss by cutting say, their usual weekend movie. As more unemployed people do that the theatre may have to close down creating more unemployed people who must again reduce their usual spending in turn. So, the initial reduction of your $100 can add up to $100 plus the reduced spending of the sagged restaurant workers plus that of the unemployed theatre staff and so on. This is the negative multiplier effect. To prevent this disastrous scenario from happening, the government must increase public spending in infrastructure construction or use tax reduction to prop up consumption ( fiscal measures ) or reduce interest rates to encourage more private consumption ( monetary measures ) to avoid an economic recession.
在經濟學上，有一個出名的現象，名叫「節約的反效果」。在微觀層面，一個人儲蓄越多，個人便越富有。相反地，在社會層面，如果總消費減少，便會產生倍數的經 濟收縮。原因是這樣的，當你少花費$100去吃一個週末晚餐時， 餐館便失去$100生意，多了人節約，餐館老闆可能要裁員。失業的人或者要節省而不再看週末電影，這樣一來，戲院老闆又要裁員自保。這樣一來，整個社會便 損失了不止原本的$100,並且加上餐館和戲院失業員工的減少花費，形成惡性循環，消費倍數減少。要避免這種損害，政府必須增加公共開支 （ 財政措施），或者以減少稅收來刺激經濟增長。減低利息 （ 金融措施），也可以刺激消費。
The lesson to be learned here is that more is different due to complex human behaviour and interaction. Therefore, things must not be viewed in isolation but must be put in the proper perspective of the whole situation. One citizen throwing one piece of rubbish is not a big problem ( micro view ) but everyone doing that will cost society billions of dollars disposing of rubbish ( the macro view ). Thus, we must think smart as modern global citizens.
從以上例子，我們可以得到以下教訓，就是多了互動單位和因素，結果完全會與單一因素不同。因此，分析事物必須整體和全面作考慮。一個人拋一點垃圾不成大問 題（ 微觀看法），每一個人都是垃圾蟲，便要社會支付數以千萬的費用來處理了（ 宏觀看法）。因此，作為今天的世界公民，我們必須擁有醒目的思維。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Financial Tsunami ( FT ) ( continued ) - ( 21 ) - Feb., 20, 2011
The Financial Tsunami ( FT ) ( continued ) - ( 21 ) - G20 in Paris ( ( 巴黎G20高峰會 ) - Feb., 20, 2011
( Report from BBC NEWS : http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12499214 )
First of all, I must express my deepest regret that the aftermath of the 2008 financial tsunami is still hindering the recovery of the world economy. This is my #21 blog post on the FT. Had there been better cooperation between the different economies in the world a full recovery should have been a reality by now.
首先，我想表達我的遺憾，因為2008年八月開始的金融海嘯餘波，到了兩年多的今天，仍現然持續，令世界經濟未能復元。這是我有關金融海嘯的第二十一篇部落格 （ BLOG ）文章。假若各國衷誠合作的話，世界經濟早已復甦了。
At the ongoing Paris meeting of G20 to deal with the aftermath of the 2008 financial tsunami members sadly failed to agree on targets to address economic imbalance. I list out below the various important issues under discussion :-
正在巴黎進行中的G20 峰會，可悲地又無法同意，如何調整經濟不平衡的目標。他們討論的主題如下:-
( 1 ) The exchange rate of the Yuan
人民幣的匯率
There is a continued call from the western countries to pressure China to revalue the Yuan. The RMB is by all standards undervalued but the true extent cannot be objectively determined unless it becomes a freely circulating currency which value could then be decided by supply and demand. This in turn would more fairly reflect the strength of a country's trading position. Despite the huge deficits accumulated by USA the dollar did not devalue accordingly because it is also a banker or reserve currency of most economies. Therefore, it is not solely China's fault that this is so. As numerous economic entities are holding assets in US dollars no one wants to see it fall drastically. If it really does this will again precipitate another financial tsunami. This is both a privileged and vulnerable position of a banker currency the advantage being higher purchasing power despite huge spending deficits and the disadvantage being less competitive in trade. As for the devaluation of the Yuan, there is not much room for devaluation without hurting her economy. This is so because China mainly depends on cheap labour to accumulate her surplus. The profit margin for such low value added production is but a few percentage points. Devaluing too much would completely wipe out her competitive edge over other developing economies. Anyway, by the current practice of money printing to finance her deficits USA is actually devaluing the dollar unilaterally. Mind you this is a fast track down to a third world country once people can find a replacement reserve currency. This is happening fast. Please see ( 2 ) below.
以西方國家為首的予會者，又再度要求人民幣貶值。確實地說， 人民幣的價值是偏低，沒有完全反映中國的經濟強化。至於確實低了多少，是十分難以確定，除非它是自由匯兌的貨幣，則可以由供應和需求決定其價值。這也可以 反映中國的貿易狀況。儘管美國累積了巨額赤字，但是美元仍沒有大幅貶值。這是因為它也擔當其他國家儲備貨幣的責任。因此，美元的偏高，不完全是中國的責 任。有很多經濟單位都擁有大量美元資產，沒有人希望它大幅貶值。如果這成為現實，更會導致全球災難性的金融大慘劇。作為儲備貨幣，有益處也有害處。益處在 巨大赤下也能夠保持購買力，害處在降低了競爭能力。就以人民幣貶值一事，其實它的貶值空間不大。原因是中國以廉價工資為優勢，高增值工業佔少數。邊際利潤只 有幾個百分比，大幅貶值會摧毀中國的競爭能力。其實，美國現行以印鈔票的方法去支付花費，已經是在單方面自行貶值美元了。可悲的是，這會令美國淪為第三世界國家，別人會更換其他貨幣為儲備，不再倚靠美元了。這會十分快成為事實的，請看以下（ 2 ）段。
( 2 ) Including the Yuan as a part of the IMF Special Drawing Rights ( SDR )
將人民幣加入為國際貨幣基金的特別提支權利中
This is a first step to using it as a reserve currency like the US Dollar. China may not like it at this point in time because her autocratic political system requires total control over everything. Anyway, it is not very feasible at this stage because it is not a freely circulating currency as yet. Special Drawing Rights are financial support provided by the International Monetary Fund to its members in case of financial emergency. Members contribute to the setting up of the reserve of SDR according to their agreed share. SDR are composed of various major currencies that are mostly freely circulating although this emergency asset is denominated in US dollars for accounting purposes. However, it is a good start to sideline the US dollar as the main reserve currency of the world which signifies a decline in the dominance of the US economy.
這是將人民幣變成一種儲備貨幣的第一步。中國在這個時刻，未必想這樣做。為因中國政府是要求在各個範疇都可加以控制的。而且，在人民幣未成為自由匯兌貨幣前，這做法意義不大。特別提付權，是國際貨幣基金給予成員國的緊急金融支援。富有成員各自提供金錢，以主要貨幣組成SDR。不過在原則上，這是降低美元在SDR 的比重， 是明智的做法。這也意味到美元地位的下降。
Apart from the discussion of revamp of the SDR some economists at the meeting have squarely put the blame on China for contributing to the 2008 financial tsunami by buying up US government bonds ( when bond prices are high the effective interest rate will be low because bonds are fixed monetary value debt instruments ) causing US interest rates to remain low thus culminating in the tsunami. While this is a contributing factor the root of the tsunami had actually originated from over spending in USA which was not in line with the corresponding increase in her productive efficiency. Excess speculation and more importantly illegal and unethical practices of some Wall Street gurus are the final straw that broke the camel's back. The evils of excessive speculation are now obvious in the drastic increase in food prices which is another looming catastrophe. Please see ( 3 ) below.
除將SDR改進外，有些經濟學家指控中國的大量購買美國政府債券，因而推低美國利息，是2008金融海嘯的懸凶。由於債券是固定價錢的債務，所以價錢越 高，回報利息便越低。雖然這是原因之一，但是更重要的因素是美國花費遠超過其生產效率，加以過分投機，和華爾街不良經紀的非法活動，才導致大災難。過度投機的禍害，可在飛漲的基本商品價格中看到。請看以下第（ 3 ）段。
( 3 ) The drastic increase in prices of basic commodities.
It is a good sign that G20 started to address the rapid increase in prices of basic commodities. While speculation is part and partial of a market or capitalistic economy it can be fatal at times. Speculation which involves buying and selling forward ( the futures market ) was originally meant to allowed consumers to cover their risk. For example, a Hong Kong citizen has bought a house in New York which he has to settle payment in six month. With the futures market in US dollars operating he or she can cover the exchange risk by booking the required amount of US dollars now. It is just like a kind of insurance. However, people can speculate purely on the future price without using the future US dollar contract for normal trading purpose. With the availability of financial leverage ( paying just a fraction of the total price of the future contract and paying interest on the balance owed ) and the prevailing low interest rate speculators can create what we call a lot of speculative demand on basic food commodities. That is the main reason for the sudden surge in food and petroleum prices apart from effects of natural disasters and political instability like the current crisis in the Middle East.
G20開始討論基本商品和食糧價格飛漲問題，這是一個好現象。雖然投機是市場經濟的一部分，但是在某種情況下，它是會致命的。投機是指買空賣空商品，本來是給 予消費者一個保險的安排。例如，一個香港人買了一所紐約的房子，要在六個月後付款。為了保險，他可以在期貨市場，以現在的匯率買下需要的美元，當然需要付 點費用，但可以保証不用將來付更高的匯率。不過有時，人們也可以為賺取利潤而投機的。如果利息低，人們更可以利用槓桿原理，或俗稱媽展(MARGIN)買 賣，只用價錢的少部分買更多的期貨。於是，這投機的需要，便構成了更多需求，引致基本商品價錢暴漲了。這便是近日，基本商品價錢飛升的主要原因。雖然，自 然災害和例如中東政治動蕩，都會影響物品價錢。
Although an ideal market should be totally free just like a full load of passengers on a cruise ship at sea ( who must be allowed to move around to enjoy their cruise ) there must , nevertheless, be some kind of safety precaution like asking passengers not to make a sudden rush to one side of the ship to avoid capsizing. Nothing is totally free in terms of action in this world. Therefore, some kind of restriction must be imposed on speculation of basic commodities that affect the lives of billions of global citizens. However, it must not be overdone to the point of creating artificially low prices which will not reflect the true demand needs and thus giving rise to short supply of a particular item. This will happen just like when governments are subsidizing the price of agricultural products for political reason leading to artificially low prices that will deter people from engaging in agricultural production. This will ultimately lead to a shortage of supply. We see this phenomenon in China where a lot of farm land is converted to real estate development thus leading to the need of more import of staple food items.
雖然一個理想的市場是應絕對自由的，但是在某些情況下，恰當控制是無可厚非的。例如，一艘滿載乘客的海上郵輪，乘客是必須自由活動，才可以享受旅程的。不過，某些安全指引，如乘客不可全部同一時間衝往船的一邊，以防發生意外，這是可以理解的限制。在 這世界裏，是沒有百份百的自由這回事的。例如關乎千百萬人的基本生活需要，便有需要加以恰當的監管了。話需要說回來，這些控制卻不能過量，引致有關商品價 錢過低，令到生產者卻步，最後會變成供應短缺，這便壞了大事。中國的農地，多變為地產項目，這都是因為國家補貼農產品所至。
Hopefully, common sense will prevail in the Paris G20 meeting. All countries must work hand in hand sincerely to put the world economy on the right path to a full recovery. Most importantly, a world food crisis cannot be allowed to materialize.
希望G20的予會國家保持理性的態度，拿出誠意來攜手合作，令世界經濟返回復甦之路。最重要的是不能容許食糧危機，成為事實。
JKHC. ( 鄭冠合 )
( Report from BBC NEWS : http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12499214 )
First of all, I must express my deepest regret that the aftermath of the 2008 financial tsunami is still hindering the recovery of the world economy. This is my #21 blog post on the FT. Had there been better cooperation between the different economies in the world a full recovery should have been a reality by now.
首先，我想表達我的遺憾，因為2008年八月開始的金融海嘯餘波，到了兩年多的今天，仍現然持續，令世界經濟未能復元。這是我有關金融海嘯的第二十一篇部落格 （ BLOG ）文章。假若各國衷誠合作的話，世界經濟早已復甦了。
At the ongoing Paris meeting of G20 to deal with the aftermath of the 2008 financial tsunami members sadly failed to agree on targets to address economic imbalance. I list out below the various important issues under discussion :-
正在巴黎進行中的G20 峰會，可悲地又無法同意，如何調整經濟不平衡的目標。他們討論的主題如下:-
( 1 ) The exchange rate of the Yuan
人民幣的匯率
There is a continued call from the western countries to pressure China to revalue the Yuan. The RMB is by all standards undervalued but the true extent cannot be objectively determined unless it becomes a freely circulating currency which value could then be decided by supply and demand. This in turn would more fairly reflect the strength of a country's trading position. Despite the huge deficits accumulated by USA the dollar did not devalue accordingly because it is also a banker or reserve currency of most economies. Therefore, it is not solely China's fault that this is so. As numerous economic entities are holding assets in US dollars no one wants to see it fall drastically. If it really does this will again precipitate another financial tsunami. This is both a privileged and vulnerable position of a banker currency the advantage being higher purchasing power despite huge spending deficits and the disadvantage being less competitive in trade. As for the devaluation of the Yuan, there is not much room for devaluation without hurting her economy. This is so because China mainly depends on cheap labour to accumulate her surplus. The profit margin for such low value added production is but a few percentage points. Devaluing too much would completely wipe out her competitive edge over other developing economies. Anyway, by the current practice of money printing to finance her deficits USA is actually devaluing the dollar unilaterally. Mind you this is a fast track down to a third world country once people can find a replacement reserve currency. This is happening fast. Please see ( 2 ) below.
以西方國家為首的予會者，又再度要求人民幣貶值。確實地說， 人民幣的價值是偏低，沒有完全反映中國的經濟強化。至於確實低了多少，是十分難以確定，除非它是自由匯兌的貨幣，則可以由供應和需求決定其價值。這也可以 反映中國的貿易狀況。儘管美國累積了巨額赤字，但是美元仍沒有大幅貶值。這是因為它也擔當其他國家儲備貨幣的責任。因此，美元的偏高，不完全是中國的責 任。有很多經濟單位都擁有大量美元資產，沒有人希望它大幅貶值。如果這成為現實，更會導致全球災難性的金融大慘劇。作為儲備貨幣，有益處也有害處。益處在 巨大赤下也能夠保持購買力，害處在降低了競爭能力。就以人民幣貶值一事，其實它的貶值空間不大。原因是中國以廉價工資為優勢，高增值工業佔少數。邊際利潤只 有幾個百分比，大幅貶值會摧毀中國的競爭能力。其實，美國現行以印鈔票的方法去支付花費，已經是在單方面自行貶值美元了。可悲的是，這會令美國淪為第三世界國家，別人會更換其他貨幣為儲備，不再倚靠美元了。這會十分快成為事實的，請看以下（ 2 ）段。
( 2 ) Including the Yuan as a part of the IMF Special Drawing Rights ( SDR )
將人民幣加入為國際貨幣基金的特別提支權利中
This is a first step to using it as a reserve currency like the US Dollar. China may not like it at this point in time because her autocratic political system requires total control over everything. Anyway, it is not very feasible at this stage because it is not a freely circulating currency as yet. Special Drawing Rights are financial support provided by the International Monetary Fund to its members in case of financial emergency. Members contribute to the setting up of the reserve of SDR according to their agreed share. SDR are composed of various major currencies that are mostly freely circulating although this emergency asset is denominated in US dollars for accounting purposes. However, it is a good start to sideline the US dollar as the main reserve currency of the world which signifies a decline in the dominance of the US economy.
這是將人民幣變成一種儲備貨幣的第一步。中國在這個時刻，未必想這樣做。為因中國政府是要求在各個範疇都可加以控制的。而且，在人民幣未成為自由匯兌貨幣前，這做法意義不大。特別提付權，是國際貨幣基金給予成員國的緊急金融支援。富有成員各自提供金錢，以主要貨幣組成SDR。不過在原則上，這是降低美元在SDR 的比重， 是明智的做法。這也意味到美元地位的下降。
Apart from the discussion of revamp of the SDR some economists at the meeting have squarely put the blame on China for contributing to the 2008 financial tsunami by buying up US government bonds ( when bond prices are high the effective interest rate will be low because bonds are fixed monetary value debt instruments ) causing US interest rates to remain low thus culminating in the tsunami. While this is a contributing factor the root of the tsunami had actually originated from over spending in USA which was not in line with the corresponding increase in her productive efficiency. Excess speculation and more importantly illegal and unethical practices of some Wall Street gurus are the final straw that broke the camel's back. The evils of excessive speculation are now obvious in the drastic increase in food prices which is another looming catastrophe. Please see ( 3 ) below.
除將SDR改進外，有些經濟學家指控中國的大量購買美國政府債券，因而推低美國利息，是2008金融海嘯的懸凶。由於債券是固定價錢的債務，所以價錢越 高，回報利息便越低。雖然這是原因之一，但是更重要的因素是美國花費遠超過其生產效率，加以過分投機，和華爾街不良經紀的非法活動，才導致大災難。過度投機的禍害，可在飛漲的基本商品價格中看到。請看以下第（ 3 ）段。
( 3 ) The drastic increase in prices of basic commodities.
It is a good sign that G20 started to address the rapid increase in prices of basic commodities. While speculation is part and partial of a market or capitalistic economy it can be fatal at times. Speculation which involves buying and selling forward ( the futures market ) was originally meant to allowed consumers to cover their risk. For example, a Hong Kong citizen has bought a house in New York which he has to settle payment in six month. With the futures market in US dollars operating he or she can cover the exchange risk by booking the required amount of US dollars now. It is just like a kind of insurance. However, people can speculate purely on the future price without using the future US dollar contract for normal trading purpose. With the availability of financial leverage ( paying just a fraction of the total price of the future contract and paying interest on the balance owed ) and the prevailing low interest rate speculators can create what we call a lot of speculative demand on basic food commodities. That is the main reason for the sudden surge in food and petroleum prices apart from effects of natural disasters and political instability like the current crisis in the Middle East.
G20開始討論基本商品和食糧價格飛漲問題，這是一個好現象。雖然投機是市場經濟的一部分，但是在某種情況下，它是會致命的。投機是指買空賣空商品，本來是給 予消費者一個保險的安排。例如，一個香港人買了一所紐約的房子，要在六個月後付款。為了保險，他可以在期貨市場，以現在的匯率買下需要的美元，當然需要付 點費用，但可以保証不用將來付更高的匯率。不過有時，人們也可以為賺取利潤而投機的。如果利息低，人們更可以利用槓桿原理，或俗稱媽展(MARGIN)買 賣，只用價錢的少部分買更多的期貨。於是，這投機的需要，便構成了更多需求，引致基本商品價錢暴漲了。這便是近日，基本商品價錢飛升的主要原因。雖然，自 然災害和例如中東政治動蕩，都會影響物品價錢。
Although an ideal market should be totally free just like a full load of passengers on a cruise ship at sea ( who must be allowed to move around to enjoy their cruise ) there must , nevertheless, be some kind of safety precaution like asking passengers not to make a sudden rush to one side of the ship to avoid capsizing. Nothing is totally free in terms of action in this world. Therefore, some kind of restriction must be imposed on speculation of basic commodities that affect the lives of billions of global citizens. However, it must not be overdone to the point of creating artificially low prices which will not reflect the true demand needs and thus giving rise to short supply of a particular item. This will happen just like when governments are subsidizing the price of agricultural products for political reason leading to artificially low prices that will deter people from engaging in agricultural production. This will ultimately lead to a shortage of supply. We see this phenomenon in China where a lot of farm land is converted to real estate development thus leading to the need of more import of staple food items.
雖然一個理想的市場是應絕對自由的，但是在某些情況下，恰當控制是無可厚非的。例如，一艘滿載乘客的海上郵輪，乘客是必須自由活動，才可以享受旅程的。不過，某些安全指引，如乘客不可全部同一時間衝往船的一邊，以防發生意外，這是可以理解的限制。在 這世界裏，是沒有百份百的自由這回事的。例如關乎千百萬人的基本生活需要，便有需要加以恰當的監管了。話需要說回來，這些控制卻不能過量，引致有關商品價 錢過低，令到生產者卻步，最後會變成供應短缺，這便壞了大事。中國的農地，多變為地產項目，這都是因為國家補貼農產品所至。
Hopefully, common sense will prevail in the Paris G20 meeting. All countries must work hand in hand sincerely to put the world economy on the right path to a full recovery. Most importantly, a world food crisis cannot be allowed to materialize.
希望G20的予會國家保持理性的態度，拿出誠意來攜手合作，令世界經濟返回復甦之路。最重要的是不能容許食糧危機，成為事實。
JKHC. ( 鄭冠合 )
Friday, February 18, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 57 ) - Feb., 19, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 57 ) - Selection Effect ( 選擇效應 ) - Feb., 19, 2011
Selection effect is the single most powerful factor that shapes our behaviour and human society at large. It is so overpowering and yet extremely subtle that we are influenced by it without our conscious knowledge. A simple example will illustrate my point. The most generally accepted idea in human society is the mystical concept of destiny ( although a small percentage of the population like yours truly do not abide by it ). I respectfully submit that this is the result of the selection effect. Say, a teenage girl meets a boy to whom she is instantly attracted in a subway train one day while getting to work. Let us say they strike up a conversation and become friends thus starting a romance. More likely than not, the girl will be completely convinced that destiny has a hand in their chanced meeting. What about other passengers on the same train ? Are they not equally arranged by destiny to be there with the girl ? Why doesn't the girl feel that destiny has also tied her to the other people on the train ? The short answer is that she chooses to like her boy. She has, in fact, " chosen her own destiny ". That is the subconscious working of the selection effect or the exercise of her free will. I am not against believing in destiny despite my own rejection of the concept but I am suggesting that there could be other factors at work. Blindly following the destiny concept could possibly result in self fulfilling prophecies or degenerate into superstition that could be harmful.
Besides the example of destiny, there are other harmful phenomena such as double standards, prejudice, extremism and numerous other human shortcomings that have to do with seeing things only from one's own perspective. They are all mainly the result of the selection effect. To avoid falling victim to this devastatingly harmful selection effect, it is advisable to look at things from different angles and not just from your own point of view.
選擇效應，是影響我們行為最強的單一因素。它甚至會影響整個社會的動向。它是十分強有力和極端含蓄的力量，令我們暗地裏受它影響而不自知。我可以用一個簡 單的例子加以說明。在人類社會中，最廣泛被接受的玄妙概念，就是有命運存在的說法（ 雖然有少部份人，包括本人在內, 不相信命運）。我沒有存心不敬地認為，命運之說，是選擇效應的結果。比例說，某天有一位少女，在上班時，在地鐵上和她一位鍾情的少年相遇。兩人互相傾慕而 交談起來，於是一段戀情便展開。在那位少女的角度看，她大多數都會認為是命運的安排。那麼她和其他同車的乘客，又是否有命運安排呢？為什麼她不會以命運之 說，來形容其他乘客呀！其實，她是對那位少年，作了她的個人選擇，認定了他是生命的一部分，亦即是說，那位女孩自己選擇了這般命運，不是命運安排她的生 命, 這是她自由意志的發揮才對。我並不反對別人相信命運，只不過認為有其他因素，推動所為命運之說。盲目地迷信命運，可能會導致有害的自行成真預言，那便十分 不幸了。
除了以上有關命運的例子，另外選擇效應的壞效果實在數不清，它們包括雙重標準，各色各樣的偏見，極端主義等，不勝枚舉。它們都是因為以自己和單一的角度看事物 所做成的惡果。而且都是由選擇效應所導致的。為避免受到它的禍害，我們必須從多方面分析事物，不要坐井觀天，卻要推己及人，便可享受海闊天空。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Selection effect is the single most powerful factor that shapes our behaviour and human society at large. It is so overpowering and yet extremely subtle that we are influenced by it without our conscious knowledge. A simple example will illustrate my point. The most generally accepted idea in human society is the mystical concept of destiny ( although a small percentage of the population like yours truly do not abide by it ). I respectfully submit that this is the result of the selection effect. Say, a teenage girl meets a boy to whom she is instantly attracted in a subway train one day while getting to work. Let us say they strike up a conversation and become friends thus starting a romance. More likely than not, the girl will be completely convinced that destiny has a hand in their chanced meeting. What about other passengers on the same train ? Are they not equally arranged by destiny to be there with the girl ? Why doesn't the girl feel that destiny has also tied her to the other people on the train ? The short answer is that she chooses to like her boy. She has, in fact, " chosen her own destiny ". That is the subconscious working of the selection effect or the exercise of her free will. I am not against believing in destiny despite my own rejection of the concept but I am suggesting that there could be other factors at work. Blindly following the destiny concept could possibly result in self fulfilling prophecies or degenerate into superstition that could be harmful.
Besides the example of destiny, there are other harmful phenomena such as double standards, prejudice, extremism and numerous other human shortcomings that have to do with seeing things only from one's own perspective. They are all mainly the result of the selection effect. To avoid falling victim to this devastatingly harmful selection effect, it is advisable to look at things from different angles and not just from your own point of view.
選擇效應，是影響我們行為最強的單一因素。它甚至會影響整個社會的動向。它是十分強有力和極端含蓄的力量，令我們暗地裏受它影響而不自知。我可以用一個簡 單的例子加以說明。在人類社會中，最廣泛被接受的玄妙概念，就是有命運存在的說法（ 雖然有少部份人，包括本人在內, 不相信命運）。我沒有存心不敬地認為，命運之說，是選擇效應的結果。比例說，某天有一位少女，在上班時，在地鐵上和她一位鍾情的少年相遇。兩人互相傾慕而 交談起來，於是一段戀情便展開。在那位少女的角度看，她大多數都會認為是命運的安排。那麼她和其他同車的乘客，又是否有命運安排呢？為什麼她不會以命運之 說，來形容其他乘客呀！其實，她是對那位少年，作了她的個人選擇，認定了他是生命的一部分，亦即是說，那位女孩自己選擇了這般命運，不是命運安排她的生 命, 這是她自由意志的發揮才對。我並不反對別人相信命運，只不過認為有其他因素，推動所為命運之說。盲目地迷信命運，可能會導致有害的自行成真預言，那便十分 不幸了。
除了以上有關命運的例子，另外選擇效應的壞效果實在數不清，它們包括雙重標準，各色各樣的偏見，極端主義等，不勝枚舉。它們都是因為以自己和單一的角度看事物 所做成的惡果。而且都是由選擇效應所導致的。為避免受到它的禍害，我們必須從多方面分析事物，不要坐井觀天，卻要推己及人，便可享受海闊天空。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Poem - Ode to Chinese Valentine's Day - Feb, 17, 2011
Poem - Ode to Chinese Valentine's Day ( 頌元宵 ) - Poetry & Prose - ( 5 ) - Feb., 17 , 2011
元宵佳節慶團圓
Chinese Valentine means love and happiness forever.
緣份天賜喜鳳鑾
Destiny is gifted by heaven so blessed be all lovers.
鑾鳳和鳴共嬋娟
May they always be as one and stay true to each other.
眷顧萬家福壽全
Longevity, fortune and unity too, to all our brothers & sisters !
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
元宵佳節慶團圓
Chinese Valentine means love and happiness forever.
緣份天賜喜鳳鑾
Destiny is gifted by heaven so blessed be all lovers.
鑾鳳和鳴共嬋娟
May they always be as one and stay true to each other.
眷顧萬家福壽全
Longevity, fortune and unity too, to all our brothers & sisters !
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 56 ) - Feb., 17, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 56 ) - The Fallacy of Assumed Mutual Exclusivity ( 假定互相排斥的謬誤 ) - Feb., 17, 2011
This is a very common fallacy that affects most of our decisions. Ever so often we find ourselves opposing a proposal, say to allocate a portion of the public budget to the welfare of animals on the ground that we still have many poor citizens that need attention. Behind all such seemingly reasonable arguments there is the implicit assumption that the choices in question are mutually exclusive. This is called the fallacy of assumed mutual exclusivity meaning that we can only have one without the other or that things are all mutually exclusive when we are faced with a choice. This fallacy can lead to excuses that justify inaction while we are morally obligated to do something in the face of injustice. For example, we may feel that we are excused from helping others when we still have some unsolved problems of our own or that we need not help those worse off than us when we are not well off ourselves. This cannot be farther from the truth. It is just an excuse to dodge our moral responsibilities. Next time when we are faced with a choice beware of this very common fallacy that can lead us to wrong conclusions or the shunning of our moral responsibilities.
這是一種十分常見的思維謬誤。我們時常作出類似的決定，例如反對以公帑來改善動物福利。原因在認為仍然有很多貧困的公民需要照顧。在類似的決定後面，都包 含着假定兩者是不能共存的。即是說，我們假定只能在這兩個目標中二選其一。這樣的思維會給我們藉口去逃避道德上的責任，不去申張正義。比如，我們可能會認 為，未解決自己所有個人問題前，便沒有幫助其他人的責任。又或者，在自己未成為富翁前，不用幫助比較貧困的人。其實，這是離開真理十分遠的看法。這只會成 為令我們逃避道德責任的藉口吧了。下次我們要作出抉擇時，請小心提防和避免犯了這種謬誤。
JKHC
This is a very common fallacy that affects most of our decisions. Ever so often we find ourselves opposing a proposal, say to allocate a portion of the public budget to the welfare of animals on the ground that we still have many poor citizens that need attention. Behind all such seemingly reasonable arguments there is the implicit assumption that the choices in question are mutually exclusive. This is called the fallacy of assumed mutual exclusivity meaning that we can only have one without the other or that things are all mutually exclusive when we are faced with a choice. This fallacy can lead to excuses that justify inaction while we are morally obligated to do something in the face of injustice. For example, we may feel that we are excused from helping others when we still have some unsolved problems of our own or that we need not help those worse off than us when we are not well off ourselves. This cannot be farther from the truth. It is just an excuse to dodge our moral responsibilities. Next time when we are faced with a choice beware of this very common fallacy that can lead us to wrong conclusions or the shunning of our moral responsibilities.
這是一種十分常見的思維謬誤。我們時常作出類似的決定，例如反對以公帑來改善動物福利。原因在認為仍然有很多貧困的公民需要照顧。在類似的決定後面，都包 含着假定兩者是不能共存的。即是說，我們假定只能在這兩個目標中二選其一。這樣的思維會給我們藉口去逃避道德上的責任，不去申張正義。比如，我們可能會認 為，未解決自己所有個人問題前，便沒有幫助其他人的責任。又或者，在自己未成為富翁前，不用幫助比較貧困的人。其實，這是離開真理十分遠的看法。這只會成 為令我們逃避道德責任的藉口吧了。下次我們要作出抉擇時，請小心提防和避免犯了這種謬誤。
JKHC
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 55 ) - Feb., 16, 2011
Thoughts to You From Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 55 ) - Two Cheers for Democracy ! ( 為民主作兩次歡呼！) - Feb., 16, 2011
Democracy deserves only two cheers as the British author E.M. Forster rightly said. There is still something to be desired, namely, the assurance that each vote is conscientiously cast by the fully informed voter not under any pressure in the voting process. The first part of this worry concerns the individual while the second part is the result of external factors. Ultimately, all political and moral issues are dependent on the conscience of the individual. Not until each human being has learned to be fair and compassionate to everyone else can democracy earn the third and final cheer. To this end, an effective and unbiased education system seems to be the ultimate solution given sufficient time.
英國作家福斯特說得對:「為民主作兩次歡呼吧！」為因民主制度仍有不完善之處。即是說投票者有沒有憑良心和足夠資訊及知識去自由投票，不受到任何壓力下行使其投票權。前者是個人問題，而後者則是外來因素。最終而言，所有政治和道德問題，都是繫於個人的良知。直到每一個人都懂得以公平和憐憫心對待他人，民主才會贏得第三和最後的歡呼。為達到這目的，似乎需要一個有效和不偏不倚的教育制度，以及足夠的時間才成。
Democracy deserves only two cheers as the British author E.M. Forster rightly said. There is still something to be desired, namely, the assurance that each vote is conscientiously cast by the fully informed voter not under any pressure in the voting process. The first part of this worry concerns the individual while the second part is the result of external factors. Ultimately, all political and moral issues are dependent on the conscience of the individual. Not until each human being has learned to be fair and compassionate to everyone else can democracy earn the third and final cheer. To this end, an effective and unbiased education system seems to be the ultimate solution given sufficient time.
英國作家福斯特說得對:「為民主作兩次歡呼吧！」為因民主制度仍有不完善之處。即是說投票者有沒有憑良心和足夠資訊及知識去自由投票，不受到任何壓力下行使其投票權。前者是個人問題，而後者則是外來因素。最終而言，所有政治和道德問題，都是繫於個人的良知。直到每一個人都懂得以公平和憐憫心對待他人，民主才會贏得第三和最後的歡呼。為達到這目的，似乎需要一個有效和不偏不倚的教育制度，以及足夠的時間才成。
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Poem - Be My Valentine ! - Poetry & Prose - ( 4 ) - Feb., 14,2011
Poem ( 詩 ) - Be my Valentine ! 成為我的情人吧！ - Poetry & Prose - ( 4 ) - Feb., 14, 2011
Be my Valentine my friendly folks one and all
from today on and forever more.
請成為我的情人吧，我一群友善的朋輩，從今天起直到永遠！
Through thick and thin we'll march hand in hand
past life's challenging doors.
讓我們攜手同渡人生痛苦與厄困， 齊步衝破生命的挑戰吧。
Love me always as a friend or simply a human kind
never with apathy but compassion strong.
像朋友一般愛護着我，或許就像對每一個人應有的慈悲，卻不可對我冷漠呀！
Especially on Valentine's Day when the whole world is in love
so that nothing can go wrong.
特別是在情人節今天，世界總是充滿着愛，一切夢想都會成為現實之時。
( May all lovers be happy together and forever more ! )
( 但願天下有情人終成眷屬！)
Joseph K.H. Cheng
( 鄭冠合 )
Be my Valentine my friendly folks one and all
from today on and forever more.
請成為我的情人吧，我一群友善的朋輩，從今天起直到永遠！
Through thick and thin we'll march hand in hand
past life's challenging doors.
讓我們攜手同渡人生痛苦與厄困， 齊步衝破生命的挑戰吧。
Love me always as a friend or simply a human kind
never with apathy but compassion strong.
像朋友一般愛護着我，或許就像對每一個人應有的慈悲，卻不可對我冷漠呀！
Especially on Valentine's Day when the whole world is in love
so that nothing can go wrong.
特別是在情人節今天，世界總是充滿着愛，一切夢想都會成為現實之時。
( May all lovers be happy together and forever more ! )
( 但願天下有情人終成眷屬！)
Joseph K.H. Cheng
( 鄭冠合 )
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
