Wednesday, April 30, 2014

The Fragile Middle: millions face poverty as emerging economies slow - Financial Times

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/95fb1cca-c181-11e3-83af-00144feabdc0.html#axzz30KKsbal5

April 13, 2014 7:14 pm

The Fragile Middle: millions face poverty as emerging economies slow

By John Burn-Murdoch and Steve Bernard
Data show 2.8bn people in the developing world sit just above the poverty line, at risk of slipping back as economic growth in emerging markets slows
More than one-third of the world lives on between $2 and $10 a day, making this “fragile middle” the world’s biggest income group. Some 2.8bn people – 40 per cent of the world’s population – were earning $2-$10 a day in 2010, the latest year for which data are available from the World Bank’s income distribution database.

Adjusting for inflation and purchasing power, the share of those living below $2 per day has dropped markedly since 1981, from 70 per cent of those living in developing countries to two in five – but the bulk of those lifted out of poverty remain only just above the line. About 1.5bn people were earning between $2 and $4 a day in 2010, and this $2-$4 group has grown more quickly than any other across the income spectrum.

Trends in poverty reduction have differed markedly between countries. China’s economic prowess of recent decades has lifted millions above the $2 a day mark, but India has lagged behind the developing world average.
Source: PovcalNet: an online tool for measuring poverty produced by the Development Research Group of the World Bank

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

9 Countries That Hate America Most - TIME

9 Countries That Hate America Most

http://time.com/60466/9-countries-that-hate-america-most/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29

    
Mar. 31, 2014. A giant American flag is unfurled on the field during ceremonies before the start of the game between the Washington Nationals and the New York Mets at Citi Field in Flushing Meadows, New York.Justin Lane—EPA

International approval of U.S. leadership improved last year, rising from of 41% in 2012 to 46% in 2013. This ended a downward trend in U.S. approval ratings, which had consistently declined since 2009.
While people around the world tended to have positive opinions of U.S. leadership, residents of some countries had a negative impression of the United States. In five nations, more than two-thirds of those surveyed disapproved of the current administration, according to the latest U.S.-Global Leadership Project, a partnership between Meridian International Center and Gallup.
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Last year represented a major improvement for U.S. leadership, Ambassador Stuart Holliday, president and CEO of Meridian International Center, told 24/7 Wall St. There were several reasons for this, including a wind-down of America’s role in armed conflicts abroad. As a result, “The view that we are the major shapers of the world and our image as being the world’s policeman are fading,” Holliday said. An ongoing return to normalcy in the global economy, in which the United States plays an outsized role, has also helped, he added.
The United States has long-running political tensions with many nations that disapprove of the U.S. leadership. Among these is Iran, which has not had diplomatic relations with the U.S. since 1980, and whose nuclear ambitions and human rights violations are points of contention for the United States. In Pakistan, the U.S. has launched attacks against terrorists and insurgents inside the country. Most notable was the 2011 raid and killing of Osama bin Laden, which led to heightened tensions between the two nations.

Another potential reason for high disapproval of U.S. leadership is the relationship with Israel. The U.S. State Department notes America was the first country to recognize Israel in 1948, and that “Israel has become, and remains, America’s most reliable partner in the Middle East.” Countries with long-running disputes with Israel — such as Lebanon and the Palestinian territories — also disapprove of U.S. leadership.
Ambassador Holliday noted the situation in the Middle East is also influenced by a lack of clarity over U.S. policy goals and, to some extent, perceptions of the U.S. government’s support of Israel. This is driven in large part by a 24/7 news cycle that chronicles every twist and turn of the peace process, Holliday added.
Several of the countries that dislike American leadership the most have also undergone recent political upheavals. Mass demonstrations in Tunisia, for example, set the tone in 2011 for what came to be known as the Arab Spring. There has also been considerable political upheaval in Egypt following the forced resignation and trial of President Hosni Mubarak in 2011. Mubarak was long considered a stable ally of the United States.
However, while it may be easy to conclude disapproval of U.S. leadership is largely limited to the Middle East and North Africa, this is not always the case. Most notably, in Slovenia, 57% of residents disapproved of U.S. leadership — despite the fact that the country is both a major ally in NATO and a member of the European Union.
But what Slovenia has in common with a number of other countries that disapprove of American leadership is the citizens’ negative opinion of their country’s government. In 2012, less than one-quarter of Slovenians had confidence in their own government, and a similar number lacked faith in their judicial system, lower than in the vast majority of the countries in the same region. Similarly, less than one-third of Pakistan and Iraq residents had confidence in their governments.

America’s strong economy may also provoke resentment among residents of these countries. According to Jon Clifton, Managing Director of the Gallup World Poll, residents of many of these countries experience hardship and do not enjoy the kind of broad economic benefits seen in more developed countries. As a result, residents equate “U.S. leadership and the leadership of whatever the current economic order represents for them.”
GDP per capita in four of the nine countries that hate America the most was less than $10,000 last year. By contrast, U.S. gross domestic product totaled more than $50,000 per capita in 2013.
Limited access to basic needs may also add to the misery of the citizens in many countries that disapprove of the United States the most. Just 31% of Iraqis were satisfied with the quality of their drinking water in 2012, less than any of the 16 other peer countries in the Middle East and North Africa. In Slovenia, only 24% of residents said they were satisfied with the availability of good, affordable housing. This was less than in all but one other OECD nation.
To determine the countries that hate America most, 24/7 Wall St. relied on data from The U.S.-Global Leadership Project, a partnership between Gallup and the Meridian International Center. Gallup also provided data from a number of other indices it produced through polling in 2012. Additional economic information and estimates, including unemployment data, came from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 2013 World Economic Outlook. IMF figures on GDP per capita are given at purchasing-power-parity in order to show real differences in wealth. Data on life expectancy was provided by The World Bank.


These are the countries that hate America most.


Nine Countries That Hate America Most

By Alexander E.M. HessVince Calio and Thomas C. Frohlich April 10, 2014 8:35 am EDT

9. Tunisia
> Disapproval rating: 54.0%
> GDP per capita: $9,447 (90th highest)
> Unemployment: 16.7% (12th highest)
> Life expectancy: 75 years (tied for 47th highest)
Animosity towards the United States in Tunisia culminated in a 2012 ransacking of the U.S. embassy in Tunisia’s capital, Tunis, by Islamic radicals. The people of Tunisia took to the streets to protest their leadership and a high unemployment rate, which reached 18.3% in 2011. The attack on the U.S. embassy came roughly one year after the protesters succeeded in ousting the country’s then-president, Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali. Although the United States has been vocal in its support of democracy in Tunisia and has provided $400 million in financial aid to the country since 2011, more than half the population disapproves of U.S. leadership. As in many countries that have negative views of the United States, Tunisia’s economy is struggling and many of its people distrust the government. The vast majority of Tunisians believed that corruption was widespread throughout their government, according to a Gallup study in 2012, and only 20% believed the country’s economy was getting better.

8. Iran
> Disapproval rating: 56.0%
> GDP per capita: $12,804 (78th highest)
> Unemployment: 13.2% (18th highest)
> Life expectancy: 73 years (72nd highest)
Iran has long been at odds with the United States, most recently over Iran’s nuclear program. The two countries have not had diplomatic relations since 1980, when Iran took more than 50 Americans hostage at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. Additionally, policy analysts have credited European Union and U.S. sanctions for causing some of the country’s wide-ranging economic problems, with inflation among the chief concerns. Consumer prices in Iran rose 30.5% in 2012 and a world-leading 42.3% last year, according to IMF estimates. This had serious consequences for much of the population, just 53% of whom noted in 2012 they had enough money for shelter, the lowest of 17 countries in the region. Similarly, just 54% said they consistently had enough money for food that year, lower than all but one other peer nation. The effects of a poor economy may play a role in the residents’ distaste of America, with 56% disapproving of U.S. leadership.

7. Slovenia
> Disapproval rating: 57.0%
> GDP per capita: $27,417 (36th highest)
> Unemployment: 10.3% (33rd highest)
> Life expectancy: 80 years (tied for 23rd highest)
Slovenia — a former communist nation that separated from Yugoslavia in 1992 — has suffered from a years-long financial crisis. Fixing the country’s weak financial institutions has been enormously expensive, according to a 2013 report in the Economist. Gross government debt as a percentage of GDP rose from just 35% in 2009 to an estimated 71.5% last year. While the country has struggled to repair its financial system and return to economic growth, protests against corruption led to the ouster of Slovenia’s government last year. In 2012, less than a quarter of the population had confidence in their judicial system, worse than in all but one other country in the area. Among the nations with the highest disapproval ratings of U.S. leadership, Slovenia is unique in that it is a NATO member. The U.S. State Department also asserts the two nations have a strong relationship.

6. Egypt
> Disapproval rating: 57.0%
> GDP per capita: $6,553 (76th lowest)
> Unemployment: 13.0% (20th highest)
> Life expectancy: 71 years (82nd highest)
Gallup collected survey data in Egypt before the ousting of President Mohamed Morsi and prior to the U.S. aid cuts later in the year. More Egyptians may now disapprove of U.S. leadership than the 57% who disapproved at the time Gallup conducted the surveys in 2013. Political turmoil has continued to plague Egypt since protesters succeeded in overthrowing President Hosni Mubarak in 2011. Egyptian respondents frequently reported negative experiences — such as feeling sad, stressed, angry or experiencing physical pain. More than half said they were worried during much of the previous day in 2012, more than most other countries reviewed in the region. The U.S. Department of State currently advises U.S. citizens not to travel to Egypt due to instability and violence across the country.


Read more: Nine Countries That Hate America Most - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/special-report/2014/04/10/nine-countries-that-hate-america-most/#ixzz30GmAOLyg 


5. Iraq
> Disapproval rating: 67.0%
> GDP per capita: $7,132 (79th lowest)
> Unemployment: N/A
> Life expectancy: 69 years (57th lowest)
The United States and Iraq have a long history of conflict. The Gulf War in 1991 was followed by the Iraq War, which began in 2003 and lasted until U.S. forces left Iraq in December 2011. Although the war has ended, the U.S. State Department warned that traveling to the country is extremely dangerous because of civil unrest and threat of kidnappings and terrorist attacks. The long-running presence of the U.S. military and the years of conflict, during which hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, including civilians, died have likely contributed to negative opinions of Americans. The new government has struggled since the war began. Many citizens disapprove of the regime of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who was elected to office in 2010 under a free election overseen by the United States. As of 2012, however, Iraqis were less likely to express confidence in their national government, military or judicial system than citizens of peer nations, and just 30% believed their country had fair elections — lower than in any country in the region.

4. Yemen
> Disapproval rating: 69.0%
> GDP per capita: $2,348 (38th lowest)
> Unemployment: N/A
> Life expectancy: 63 years (38th lowest)
More than 100 Yemeni citizens have been detained at Guantanamo Bay over the years. The United States also has been concerned over terrorist activity in Yemen. It is therefore no surprise that the two countries have a strained relationship and that nearly 70% of survey respondents disapproved of U.S. leadership. Also, just 9% of Yemenite respondents approved of U.S. leadership, less than in any other country reviewed by Gallup. The country suffers from a very poor economy, with GDP per capita at just $2,348 last year, among the very lowest in the world. According to the World Bank, more than half of the country’s population lived in poverty as of 2012. U.S. citizens are currently under advisory from the U.S. State Department to avoid traveling to Yemen due to the extremely high security threat level.

3. Lebanon
> Disapproval rating: 71.0%
> GDP per capita: $15,832 (66th highest)
> Unemployment: N/A
> Life expectancy: 80 years (tied for 23rd highest)
Like many countries that disapprove of U.S. leadership, Lebanon has a long history of conflict with Israel. Hezbollah, a militant group and political party deemed a terrorist organization by the United States and European Union, has operated out of Lebanon for several decades. In February, Israeli forces bombed a Hezbollah convoy on the Syrian-Lebanese border. Hezbollah subsequently claimed responsibility for the roadside bombing of an Israeli patrol along the Lebanese-Israeli border in retaliation. The country is also strapped with debt. Its gross debt was nearly 143% of its GDP last year, the third highest in the world. According to a recent AP report, the country’s debt problem is compounded by corruption and a government unwilling to act. In 2012, 85% of residents stated that corruption was widespread, the most of any comparable country.

2. Pakistan
> Disapproval rating: 73.0%
> GDP per capita: $3,144 (48th lowest)
> Unemployment: 6.7% (47th lowest)
> Life expectancy: 66 (46th lowest)
While 73% of Pakistani respondents still disapproved of U.S. leadership in 2013, this was a six percentage points improvement over 2012. Relations with Pakistan have been tense since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States by al-Qaeda. Shortly after the attacks, the U.S. made Pakistan the base of its operations in its hunt for al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and the war on Afghanistan’s then-leadership, the Taliban. In 2009, a survey revealed that 59% of the Pakistani people viewed the United States as a bully and as a bigger threat than al-Qaeda. Further exacerbating the country’s negative view of the U.S. may be Pakistan’s struggling economy and poor governance. Just one in 10 Pakistanis said they lived comfortably on their incomes in 2012, according to Gallup, and only 23% of Pakistanis expressed confidence in their government.
1. Palestinian territories

> Disapproval rating: 80.0%
> GDP per capita: N/A
> Unemployment: N/A
> Life expectancy: 73 years (95th highest)
Four of five Palestinians disapproved of American leadership, by far the worst perception of the United States globally. One explanation for the country’s hostility toward the United States is Palestine’s conflict with Israel. Hamas, the organization that has effectively governed the Gaza Strip territory since 2007, is considered by the United States and European Union to be a terrorist organization. Possibly emphasizing the deep divides in the Palestinian territories, just 18% of respondents told Gallup the place they lived was a good place for racial and ethnic minorities in 2012, less than all but one other country in the region.


Monday, April 28, 2014

Facebook Reveals Which Countries Censor Citizens’ News Feeds - TIME

Facebook Reveals Which Countries Censor Citizens’ News Feeds



http://time.com/59567/facebook-countries-censor-report-india/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29

April 11, 2014
    
Facebook revealed that it has allowed the Indian government to censor the content its inhabitants are allowed to see on the social network 4,765 times between July and December 2013. Why? Indian legislation outlaws criticizing a religion or the state, so when government officials call blasphemy, Facebook investigates and eradicates.
“Facebook’s mission is to give people the power to share, and to make the world more open and connected,” Colin Stretch, Facebook’s general counsel, said in atransparency report that was released Friday. “Sometimes, the laws of a country interfere with that mission, by limiting what can be shared there.” If a country’s complaint is proven valid given local laws—Facebook’s next report may reveal how many times requests are denied—then Facebook removes the content for users only in that region.
This is the first time the social network has disclosed how often it allows governments to remove or restrict content for legal reasons. While India leads the pack, it was followed by Turkey, which restricted 2,014 pieces of content primarily because it defamed or criticized Ataturk or the Turkish state, which is illegal. Germany was allowed to censor 84 pieces of content because local laws prohibit Holocaust denial. That law also exists in France (80 restrictions) and Austria (78 restrictions).
A map chronicling how much was banned and why can be seen here.Facebook didn’t include information it would have removed anyway because it violated its community standards.
This isn’t the first time Facebook has offered up information on allowances it grants to governments. The company’s first Global Government Requests Report was released in August and disclosed how often it grants governments access to user data. That information was also included in the current July-Dec. report.
The United States was the leader in user information requests. It was granted 81% of its 12,598 requests for account details due to search warrants, subpoenas, emergency disclosures, and other official reasons. It was followed by the UK (granted 71% of its 1,906 requests), and India (granted 54% of its 3,598 requests).


This level of disclosure isn’t unheard of in the tech world. Twitter has been releasing this information for years.Between July 1 and December 31, Twitter withheld 191 tweets.

Sunday, April 27, 2014

Microsoft Closes $7.2 Billion Nokia Purchase - TIME

April 25, 2014
http://time.com/77160/microsoft-nokia/
Microsoft closed 0n Friday its $7.2 billion purchase of Nokia’s devices business, a move Microsoft claims will increase the profitability of its Windows smartphones and increase its share in a market dominated by Google, Samsung and Apple.
In its announcement, Microsoft touted a study showing that the company stands to grow the fastest among the leading smartphone operating systems. It also promised the deal would accelerate its share of smartphones in emerging markets.
Microsoft controls a fraction of the global smartphone market — as little as 3%, according to Business Insider.
When Microsoft announced the deal in September, it reported that the company would make around a $40 profit on each smartphone. That’s an increase over the $10 profits it’s making now, as the purchase means Microsoft will no longer have to pay development and marketing costs to Nokia. Reuters reported that the venture would not be fully profitable until fiscal year 2016, citing Microsoft data.

an in 1871 as a Finnish wood pulp mill, lost its title as thelargest smartphone maker in the world to Apple and Samsung.

Saturday, April 26, 2014

5 Fundamental Truths for Tech Companies - TIME

April 18, 2014

    http://time.com/68146/5-fundamental-truths-for-tech-companies/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29
Maybe that correction in technology stocks wasn’t such a bad thing after all. As tech companies have started the quarterly ritual of reporting earnings, the early indications are that, while many are still growing, they aren’t growing enough to meet the outsize expectations the market had built up.

So far, the flagship tech companies that have posted earnings bore few big surprises or disappointments. While several companies posted solid results, it wasn’t enough for the more hyped, overvalued stocks like Google. Others, like Intel, that were left out of last year’s tech rally performed much better.
It’s almost enough to make a fundamental investor believe the market hasn’t quite lost its head. There are several more weeks to earnings season to come, but if this week is any indication of what’s ahead, there are several trends emerging.

Internet companies are growing fast, just not fast enough.At Google, revenue excluding traffic acquisitions costs rose 23%. That’s a far cry from Facebook’s recent 63% growth but it’s still pretty impressive. According to RBC Capital, only two other large companies have maintained growth above 20% for 16 straight quarters: Amazon and Priceline. Being as big as Google and growing that fast is a tough act to keep up.
But for investors who have strongly associated Internet giants with growth, Google’s feat doesn’t impress much. The stock slid 4% Thursday after Google fell short of revenue and profit expectations. The growth simply wasn’t good enough to justify the stock’s lofty price. Even after its recent slump, Google shares are up 36% in the past year, pricing it at 29 times revenue.

Mobile is driving down ad prices, and it’s starting to be a problem. If there was one worrisome part of Google’s report, it was the decline in cost per clicks, the price charged for ads. CPC’s fell 9% at Google, a decline that has been accelerating for the past few quarters. In fact, Google’s CPC’s have been negative for a couple of years, around the time mobile ads began supplanting ads on the desktop Web.
Mobile is an opportunity and a problem for Google. It’s where the users are going, but it’s also, according to Google, a key reason why CPCs are in decline. Google may also be seeing lower CPCs from emerging markets and ads outside its own sites. The company plans to offer more detailed data on CPCs in coming quarters. Facebook has had better rates with its targeted ads in mobile feeds, but most other companies are struggling to see mobile ads pay.

The market is getting competitive for IT services. IBM’s stock dropped 3% after it said revenue fell 4% last quarter to $22.5 billion. For years, IBM was a stalwart leader in the market for managing IT services for other companies. But rivals like HP and Dell are getting aggressive on costs, and cloud computing is cutting IT costs in general, and it’s all taking its toll on IBM.
Revenue at IBM’s IT and outsourcing business fell 3%, its consulting division was flat and its server and storage business declined 23%. Software was a bright spot, rising 2%. IBM is still vowing to reach $20 in earnings per share next year, although some analysts notedearnings growth is coming from a lower tax rate and an aggressive buyback program.

Old school tech still has the ability to impress. Intel shares reached their highest level Thursday in nearly two years as itdelivered earnings slightly above Wall Street estimates, but showed the company is making a slow but sure move into chips powering tablets and mobile devices. That makes for a 23% rebound in Intel’s stock since last September.
Bulls and bears have been arguing over whether Intel can make the transition without eating into costs, which have been weighing on margins in recent quarters. Intel’s manufacturing prowess may be able to lower costs in the long run, while also pushing into new markets like sensor chips for the Internet of Things. So while Intel is still struggling in its legacy market for PC chips, it fighting for footing in growing markets.

Growth in Asian giants is outpacing US peers. For all of Marissa Mayer’s attempts to turn around Yahoo’s core business, investors still scour its earnings announcements for information on another company: Alibaba. Yahoo’s earnings from equity interests in Alibaba and Yahoo Japan rose to $301 million last quarter from $218 million a year ago.


China-based Alibaba was by far the big contributor to Yahoo’s equity earnings. Alibaba’s operating income rose 66% in its most recently reported quarter. Yahoo’s operating profit, by contrast fell 84%. And yet Yahoo’s stock has risen 6% since reporting earnings. Wags have joked that investors like Yahoo as a hedge fund better than an Internet company, and numbers like that show the truth behind the humor.

Friday, April 25, 2014

Why Buffett Should Vote ‘No’ on Coke - TIME

Why Buffett Should Vote ‘No’ on Coke

http://time.com/76556/warren-buffett-coke-buyback/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29

April 24, 2014
    
The discussion over inequality is all the rage these days, and it’s been given a new wrinkle with the hoopla over Warren Buffett’s abstention from a vote over Coke’s new compensation plan, which would award billions of dollars to Coke managers in Coke stock if they hit certain performance targets. Buffett told CNBC that he opposed the idea, but wouldn’t directly vote against it, because he loved the company, which was run by “great people” (which, it must be said, includes his son, who sits on the firm’s board). Traditionally, Buffett has opposed excessive corporate compensation, as well as the stock buyback plans that often fuel oversized packages, because, as he said in a 1999 letter to shareholders, “repurchases are all the rage, but are all too often made for an unstated and, in our view, ignoble reason: to pump or support the stock price.”

I couldn’t agree more, and I wish he’d gone further and actually voted “No” to the Coke proposal. Pumping up corporate compensation with excessive stock deals fuels not only inequality but bad decision making (since executives are incentivized to do things that pump up prices in the short term but cut growth in the longer term.
Buy backs are a case in point. Even more than in the late 1999s, buybacks are all the rage right now. University of Massachusetts professor William Lazonick, who studies the effects of buybacks on corporate compensation and inequality, recently put out a paper showing that between 2003 and 2012, 449 of the S&P 500 companies gave out more than half of their earnings, some $2.4 trillion, on buying back shares of their own company. While this might seem like a vote of confidence, it’s hardly coincidental that his research shows that buybacks also tend to go hand-in-hand with lower future earnings and bull markets. Companies don’t buy back stock in down markets because they believe that the market has undervalued their great products and ingenuity; they do it in bull markets because they want to bolster their own pay at a time when underlying growth is sagging.
It’s a strategy being carried out today at companies like Apple, which just announced more share buybacks even as it announced lower earnings, and at Yahoo, which has offset an underwhelming growth story by buying back stock. It’s happening at Coke, too, and most of the country’s largest blue chip firms. It’s no wonder that execs want to be paid in stock – buybacks almost always bolster share prices over the short term, and investment income like stock makes you a lot richer than earned income from actual labor. It also decreases the amount of the economic pie that goes to labor versus management.

All this worries me. If you chart the rise of share buybacks against R&D spending in corporate America since the 1980s, the lines make a perfect X. We are very clearly bankrupting our future growth here. As Lazonick puts it, “Since the mid-1980s, corporations have funded the stock market rather than the market funding corporations.” Not to mention workers, or jobs (most large American corporations have had zero net job growth here at home over the last 30 years, even as corporate pay has risen to nosebleed levels). No wonder Thomas Pikkety’s book on inequalityand the triumph of capital over labor is at #1 on Amazon.

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Cities Where Americans Don’t Feel Safe - 24/7 Wall St. com

Cities Where Americans Don’t Feel Safe



By Alexander E.M. HessThomas C. Frohlich and Vince Calio April 18, 2014 3:33 am EDT

http://247wallst.com/special-report/2014/04/18/cities-where-americans-dont-feel-safe/2/
10. Fresno, Calif.
> Pct. feel safe at night: 57.2%
> Pct. without money for shelter: 14.1% (11th highest)
> Violent crime rate: 539.8 per 100,000 residents (58th highest)
> Poverty rate: 28.4% (5th highest)
> Population: 951,648 (74th highest)
Fresno had among the highest property crime rates in the nation in 2012, with 4,424 crimes per 100,000 residents. That year, there were nearly 730 motor vehicle thefts per 100,000 people in the area, the most out of all but three other metro areas in the United States. Fresno continues to struggle with high unemployment. In December 2013, the area’s unemployment rate was 12.4%, among the highest in the nation. Like most of the cities where people do not feel safe, Fresno also had a high poverty rate of more than 28%, one of the highest rates in America. The residents’ impression of their city was also quite poor as less than 48% believed their city was getting better, well below the national rate of 59.7%.

9. Huntington-Ashland, W.Va.-Ky.-Ohio
> Pct. feel safe at night: 56.7%
> Pct. without money for shelter: 9.6% (86th lowest)
> Violent crime rate: N/A
> Poverty rate: 18.3% (111th highest)
> Population: 364,665 (166th highest)
Like several metro areas where people felt unsafe, educational attainment rates were relatively low. Less than one in five Huntington-area residents had attained at least a bachelor’s degree as of 2012, considerably lower than the nationwide rate of nearly 30%. In contrast to other metro areas where residents did not feel safe, a relatively low proportion of respondents, 9.6%, said they did not have enough money for shelter in the past 12 months. However, a typical household in the area made just $39,160 in 2012, among the lowest incomes. And while nearly 60% of Americans thought the city they lived in was getting better last year, just 40% of Huntington residents told Gallup their city was improving, among the worst such assessments.

8. Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.
> Pct. feel safe at night: 56.3%
> Pct. without money for shelter: 13.7% (18th highest)
> Violent crime rate: 1056.8 per 100,000 (the highest)
> Poverty rate: 19.9% (76th highest)
> Population: 1,341,690 (59th highest)
Memphis had the nation’s highest violent crime rate in 2012, with 1,057 such crimes per 100,000 residents. That year, the area had 155 murders, or 11.5 per 100,000 people — among the highest rates in the nation. Incidents of aggravated assault and robbery were similarly prevalent as well. Nearly 20% of area residents lived below the poverty line in 2012, compared to slightly less than 16% nationally. Memphis residents were among the most likely Americans to state they lacked money for adequate shelter, with 13.7% saying so in 2012 and 2013. Despite all of this, many residents had strong evaluations of their own lives, as only residents in three other metro areas nationwide gave higher evaluations of their prospects in the next five years.

7. Fayetteville, N.C.
> Pct. feel safe at night: 56.0%
> Pct. without money for shelter: 12.7% (29th highest)
> Violent crime rate: 501.0 per 100,000 people (71st highest)
> Poverty rate: 19.7% (86th highest)
> Population: 377,864 (162nd highest)
Fayetteville residents were among the most likely to be victims of property crime. There were 5,359 property crimes and 1,827 burglaries per 100,000 residents in 2012, both the third highest rates nationwide. Violent crime was also a problem in the area. There were more than 500 violent incidents per 100,000 area residents in 2012, well above the national rate of 386.9 per 100,000. There were also 7.9 murders per 100,000 people in the area, versus 4.7 murders per 100,000 nationwide. Like many of the cities where residents felt unsafe walking at night, Fayetteville had a poverty rate well above the national rate of 15.9%.

6. Mobile, Ala.
> Pct. feel safe at night: 54.5%
> Pct. without money for shelter: 13.8% (16th highest)
> Violent crime rate: 552.1 per 100,000 (46th highest)
> Poverty rate: 21.1% (54th highest)
> Population: 414,233 (151st highest)
Mobile’s high violent crime rate in 2012 may be why so many residents felt unsafe at night. That year there were more than 550 violent crimes per 100,000 residents, more than in the vast majority of areas. The metro had 11.1 murders and voluntary manslaughters per 100,000 residents, among the highest rates in the country. The area also had 4,298.8 property crimes per 100,000 people in 2012, also among the highest in the country. Like many areas where residents feel unsafe at night, many residents in the area were also struggling to make ends meet, as 9% of Mobile’s households earned less than $10,000, one of the highest percentages in the country. Nearly 14% of Mobile’s population did not have enough money for shelter in the past year, among the worst rates in the nation.
5. Modesto, Calif.
> Pct. feel safe at night: 54.2%
> Pct. without money for shelter: 14.2%% (10th highest)
> Violent crime rate: 549.4 per 100,000 (48th highest)
> Poverty rate: 20.3% (64th highest)
> Population: 523,330 (124th highest)
With relatively high crime rates, Modesto residents are not likely to feel completely at ease walking alone at night. Motor vehicle theft was particularly bad in the area, with more than 780 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2012, second worst nationwide. Like many metro areas where people feel unsafe, Modesto’s economy has been strained in recent years. The unemployment rate was an abysmal 12.3% at the end of last year, among the highest rates nationwide. More than one in five residents lived in poverty in 2012, also among the highest rates in the nation. More than 14% of respondents said they had enough money for shelter at all times in the past 12 months, among the worst rates in the country.

4. Columbus, Ga.-Ala.
> Pct. feel safe at night: 54.2%
> Pct. without money for shelter: 14.8% (7th highest)
> Violent crime rate: 437.4 per 100,000 (99th highest)
> Poverty rate: 18.7% (102nd highest)
> Population: 304,291 (182nd highest)
Like in many of the cities in which people do not feel safe, 14.8% of Columbus residents said that they did not have enough money for adequate shelter within the past year, among the 10 worst rates in the country. A high percentage of people in the area struggled economically. The area’s median household income was less than $43,000 in 2012, versus more than $51,000 nationwide. Additionally, the area had one of the nation’s highest portions of residents on food stamps, at 20.6% that year. The region also had 166.3 robberies per 100,000 people in 2012, among the highest rates in the nation, and 4,778.6 property crimes per 100,000 people, worse than all but just five other metro areas in the country.

3. Stockton, Calif.
> Pct. feel safe at night: 52.2%
> Pct. without money for shelter: 12.5% (tied for 34th highest)
> Violent crime rate: 889.3 per 100,000 (6th highest)
> Poverty rate: 18.4% (108th highest)
> Population: 702,670 (97th highest)
Stockton had 889 incidents of violent crime for every 100,000 residents in 2012, higher than all but a handful of metro areas nationwide. That year, there were 89 murders, or 12.7 per 100,000 residents, among the highest rates in the nation. Cases of aggravated assault and robbery were also extremely frequent. Violent crime was such a problem in Stockton that year that the city’s police declared a policy of immediately dispatching officers only in cases of violent crimes and crimes in progress. The city of Stockton, which is currently working on plans to exit from bankruptcy, has lost police officers in recent years due to a combination of layoffs and retirements. At the end of 2013, 12% of the area’s workforce was unemployed. While this was down from 16% two years before, it was still among the worst unemployment rates in the nation.

2. Yakima, Wash.
> Pct. feel safe at night: 51.3%
> Pct. without money for shelter: 12.5% (tied for 34th highest)
> Violent crime rate: 349.4 per 100,000 (172nd highest)
> Poverty rate: 23.1% (29th highest)
> Population: 249,564 (178th lowest)
While Yakima residents often felt unsafe walking home alone at night, the area’s violent crime rate was actually lower than the national rate. Property crime, however, remains a problem. Despite Yakima County’s Crimestoppers grassroots organization, which encourages citizens to report crimes, the area had 1,217.7 burglaries per 100,000 people in 2012, and 673.2 car thefts per 100,000 people, both among the highest rates in the country. Like most metro areas in which residents do not feel safe walking alone at night, Yakima is struggling economically. Nearly one-quarter of the area’s residents had to rely on food stamps for at least part of 2012, and 23.1% of residents lived in poverty in 2012 — both among the worst rates in the country.

1. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas
> Pct. feel safe at night: 48.5%
> Pct. without money for shelter: 24.5% (the highest)
> Violent crime rate: 319.2 per 100,000 (160th lowest)
> Poverty rate: 34.5% (2nd highest)
> Population: 809,759 (90th highest)
McAllen was the only metro area in which less than half of all respondents felt safe walking home alone at night. This was despite the fact that McAllen actually had a lower violent crime rate than the United States overall in 2012, at just 319 incidents per 100,000 residents, versus 387 crimes for 100,000 residents nationally. However, violence along the border with Mexico remains a concern for many McAllen residents. The State Department warns against traveling to the neighboring city of Reynosa, Mexico, due to high levels of drug-related violence. Additionally, nearly 25% of residents stated they did not have enough money for adequate shelter at some point in the previous year, by far the most of any metro area. A lack of adequate shelter may be tied to the relatively low economic prosperity in the region. In 2012, 34.5% of residents lived below the poverty line, and the median household income was just $33,761, both among the worst in the nation.

By Alexander E.M. Hess, Thomas C. Frohlich and Vince Calio

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Photos Link Masked Men in East Ukraine to Russia - New York Times

Photos Link Masked Men in East Ukraine to Russia

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/21/world/europe/photos-link-masked-men-in-east-ukraine-to-russia.html?emc=edit_th_20140421&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=56381892&_r=0


KIEV, Ukraine — For two weeks, the mysteriously well-armed, professional gunmen known as “green men” have seized Ukrainian government sites in town after town, igniting a brush fire of separatist unrest across easternUkraine. Strenuous denials from the Kremlin have closely followed each accusation by Ukrainian officials that the world was witnessing a stealthy invasion by Russian forces.
Now, photographs and descriptions from eastern Ukraine endorsed by the Obama administration on Sunday suggest that many of the green men are indeed Russian military and intelligence forces — equipped in the same fashion as Russian special operations troops involved in annexing the Crimea region in February. Some of the men photographed in Ukraine have been identified in other photos clearly taken among Russian troops in other settings.
And Ukraine’s state security service has identified one Russian reported to be active among the green men as Igor Ivanovich Strelkov, a Russian military intelligence operative in his mid- to late 50s. He is said to have a long résumé of undercover service with the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian general staff, most recently in Crimea in February and March and now in and around the eastern Ukrainian city of Slovyansk.
“There has been broad unity in the international community about the connection between Russia and some of the armed militants in eastern Ukraine, and the photos presented by the Ukrainians last week only further confirm this, which is why U.S. officials have continued to make that case,” Jen Psaki, the State Department spokeswoman, said Sunday.
The question of Russia’s role in eastern Ukraine has a critical bearing on the agreement reached Thursday in Geneva among Russian, Ukrainian, American and European diplomats to ease the crisis. American officials have said that Russia would be held responsible for ensuring that the Ukrainian government buildings were vacated, and that it could face new sanctions if the terms were not met.


Ukraine Provides Evidence of Russian Military in Civil Unrest

The Ukrainian government provided these photographs last week to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Vienna. Ukraine says the photographs document that the armed men who have taken over government buildings in eastern Ukraine are Russian combatants. The State Department, which has also alleged Russian interference, says that the Ukrainian evidence is convincing.

The Kremlin insists that Russian forces are in no way involved, and that Mr. Strelkov does not even exist, at least not as a Russian operative sent to Ukraine with orders to stir up trouble. “It’s all nonsense,” PresidentVladimir V. Putin said Thursday during a four-hour question-and-answer session on Russian television. “There are no Russian units, special services or instructors in the east of Ukraine.” Pro-Russian activists who have seized government buildings in at least 10 towns across eastern Ukraine also deny getting help from professional Russian soldiers or intelligence agents.
But masking the identity of its forces, and clouding the possibilities for international denunciation, is a central part of the Russian strategy, developed over years of conflict in the former Soviet sphere, Ukrainian and American officials say.
John R. Schindler, a former National Security Agency counterintelligence officer who now teaches at the Naval War College, calls it “special war”: “an amalgam of espionage, subversion, even forms of terrorism to attain political ends without actually going to war in any conventional sense.”
And one country, Mr. Schindler noted in an article last year in which he coined the term, that particularly excels at special war is Russia, which carried out its first post-Soviet war to regain control of rebellious Chechnya back in 1994 by sending in a column of armored vehicles filled with Russian soldiers masquerading as pro-Moscow Chechens.

Russia’s flair for “maskirovka” — disguised warfare — has become even more evident under Mr. Putin, a former K.G.B. officer whose closest advisers are mostly from that same Soviet intelligence agency.
For nearly two months now, the shaky new Ukrainian government has been left to battle phantoms, first in Crimea and now in eastern Ukraine, where previously fringe pro-Russian political activists have had their fortunes lifted by small but heavily armed groups of masked men.
In the eastern city of Slovyansk, under the control of pro-Russian insurgents for more than a week now, the green men have worked hard to blend in with locals but have occasionally let the mask slip, apparently to send a clear message that any push to regain control by Ukrainian forces would risk bringing down the wrath of the Russian military.
A gradation of forces control the city and other areas now in the hands of separatist rebels, ranging from clearly professional masked soldiers and unruly groups of local men in camouflage, rifles slung over their shoulders, to teenage boys in sweatpants carrying baseball bats or hunting knives. At most times, only the local toughs are visible on the streets.
But when a woman sidled up to one of the masked gunmen in the city’s central square last week and asked where he was from, she got an answer that summed up Russia’s bedeviling and constantly shifting disguises. The gunman initially said he was “from Russia,” but when pressed, said coyly that he was “from New Russia,” a long-forgotten czarist-era term revived last week by Mr. Putin to describe a large section of eastern and southern Ukraine.
Asked by the woman what would happen if the Ukrainian Army attacked, he replied, “We have to stand for only 24 hours, to tend the fire, and after that, a one million man army will be here.”
When a Ukrainian armored column approached the town last Wednesday and then swiftly surrendered, a group of disciplined green men suddenly appeared on the scene and stood guard. Over the course of several hours, several of them told bystanders in the sympathetic crowd that they were Russians. They allowed themselves to be photographed with local girls, and drove an armored personnel carrier in circles to please the crowd.


“It’s hard to fathom that groups of armed men in masks suddenly sprang forward from the population in eastern Ukraine and systematically began to occupy government facilities,” Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, NATO’s top military commander, wrote in a blog post on the alliance’s website.“It’s hard to fathom because it’s simply not true. What is happening in eastern Ukraine is a military operation that is well planned and organized, and we assess that it is being carried out at the direction of Russia.”
His evidence, however, was mostly circumstantial: Pro-Russian gunmen “exhibit telltale military training and equipment”; they handle weapons like professional soldiers, not new recruits to a pickup “self-defense” force; they carry weapons and equipment that are primarily Russian Army issue, not gear “that civilians would be likely to be able to get their hands on in large numbers.” General Breedlove conceded that such points, taken alone, might not prove much, “but taken in the aggregate, the story is clear.”
Heightening skepticism of Russia’s denials is also the fact that Mr. Putin, after denyingany Russian link to the masked gunmen who seized government buildings in Crimea and blockaded Ukrainian military bases there, last week changed his story and said, “Of course, Russian servicemen did back the Crimean self-defense forces.”


More direct evidence of a Russian hand in eastern Ukraine is contained in a dossier of photographs provided by Ukraine to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, a Vienna-based organization now monitoring the situation in Donetsk and other parts of the country. It features pictures taken in eastern Ukraine of unidentified gunmen and an earlier photograph of what looks like the same men appearing in a group shot of a Russian military unit in Russia.
Continue reading the main story


One set of photographs shows what appears to be the same gunman in pictures taken in the Crimean annexation and more recently in Slovyansk. Another features a portly bearded man photographed in Slovyansk on April 14, wearing a camouflage uniform without insignia, but six years earlier, had been photographed during Russia’s invasion of Georgia with a Russian special forces patch on his left arm.
Another character in Ukraine’s case against Russia is Mr. Strelkov, the alleged military intelligence officer who Kiev says took part in a furtive Russian operation to prepare for the annexation of Crimea and, more recently, in insurgent action in Slovyansk.
No photographs have yet emerged of Mr. Strelkov, but the Security Service of Ukraine, the successor organization to what used to be Ukraine’s local branch of the K.G.B., has released a sketch of what it says is his face.
The security agency, known by its Ukrainian abbreviation S.B.U., first identified him publicly early last week after releasing an audio recording of what it said was a recording of an intercepted communication between Russian operatives in eastern Ukraine and their controller back in Russia.
In the recording, a man nicknamed “Strelok” — who the Ukrainian agency says is Mr. Strelkov — and others can be heard discussing weapons, roadblocks and how to hold on to captured positions in and near Slovyansk with a superior in Russia.
The superior, clearly anxious to keep Russia’s role hidden, can be heard ordering his men on the ground in Ukraine not to identify themselves and to find someone with a Ukrainian accent who can give an interview to a Russian television channel. It was very important, he added, to say on air that all the pro-Russian insurgents want is “federalization,” or constitutional changes to give eastern Ukraine more autonomy.

Military analysts say the Russian tactics show a disturbing amount of finesse that speak to long-term planning.
“The Russians have used very specialized, very effective forces,” said Jacob W. Kipp, an expert on the Russian military and the former deputy director of the United States Army’s School of Advanced Military Studies at Fort Leavenworth, Kan.
“They don’t assume that civilians are cluttering up the battlefield; they assume they are going to be there,” he said. “They are trained to operate in these kind of environments.”

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

E-cigarettes: no smoke without fear - Financial Times

E-cigarettes: no smoke without fear - Financial Times



April 17, 2014 1:21 pm

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/ed185b54-c5e0-11e3-a7d4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2zWQ5ionf

E-cigarettes: no smoke without fear


By Emma Jacobs and Duncan RobinsonAuthor alerts
E-cigarettes are big business. How did they start? How do they work? And what is big tobacco doing to protect its market share?
©Paul Zak
Entering his thirties, Umer Sheikh decided he’d had enough: it was time to give up cigarettes. As he resolved to quit his 20-a-day habit, he spotted an advertisement for an electronic cigarette, available from a Chinese company called Ruyan. It was 2006 and these strange contraptions – they looked more like assembly-kit plastic cigars than cigarettes – were an oddity. But, desperate for anything to ease his dependency on tobacco, he bought one for $200. It arrived and he took his first drag. “It was amazing,” he says. “It was guilt-free smoking.” A few hours later it broke. Sheikh sent off for another. That lasted a day. Nonetheless he was hooked.
Soon after this epiphany, in November 2006, the British government passed a law to ban smoking in virtually all enclosed public places in England from July 2007 (following Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales). For Umer, it was a light-bulb moment: he convinced his brother, Taz, of the business opportunity presented by e-cigarettes. The brothers already had an IT consultancy and software-development company based in Britain and Bangalore, and they shared an appetite for entrepreneurial risk – their parents ran their own retail company and took them to trade fairs and wholesalers at the weekend. If it had not been e-cigarettes, it would have been something else, reflects Taz: “We took a punt.”


Keen to improve on the e-cigarette experience, the brothers hired two Chinese engineers to experiment with the technology. Instead of Ruyan’s three-piece version (made up of battery, vaporiser and liquid-filled cartridge) they came up with a device that used just two. That overcame the overheating problem which had made Umer’s original purchase break down.
At first, it was difficult to get retailers to stock their Gamucci e-cigarettes. “They hadn’t heard of electronic cigarettes and didn’t know where to position them – alongside traditional tobacco products or in the health section,” says Umer, blunter than his brother Taz, who speaks with the patter of a salesman. In 2008, at Gamucci’s first trade show – the NEC Birmingham spring fair, a business-to-business show for retail products – the brothers were sandwiched between a stall selling swords and another that was punting hemp-seed chocolate.
The breakthrough came when Genting Casinos, a UK gambling chain that had been hit by the smoking ban, agreed to stock their product. E-cigarettes allowed gamblers to “vape” (as inhaling the vapour from an e-cigarette is known) while remaining at the roulette wheels.
The way e-cigarettes work is that, as a user puffs on one end, a tiny electronic device heats up a nicotine cartridge, turning it into a vapour that is then inhaled, supposedly exposing only the smoker to nicotine. The remaining vapour evaporates without any smoke exposure to others. The products do not use tobacco.
©Kalpesh Lathigra

Umer (right) and Taz Sheikh of Gamucci: ‘We didn’t envisage it would be such a large industry’
Today, operating out of an office on the edge of the City of London packed with higgledy-piggledy piles of boxes, Gamucci is finalising a fundraising round of £20m. Last year its revenues were £5m. The company has signed a distribution deal with WH Smith and opened a “vaping lounge” at Heathrow airport. “We didn’t envisage it would be such a large industry,” says Taz. To bolster growth it has also hired former tobacco executives. Its chief executive, Tony Scanlan, spent nearly two decades at Rothmans International in a number of senior roles, including strategic new brands director.
Gamucci’s story mirrors the broader rise of e-cigarettes. In just a few years, the sector has become big business. According to financial services group Canaccord Genuity, global sales reached $3bn last year, a steep rise from $20m in 2008.
Big tobacco has muscled in, acquiring smaller players – among the first examples was US company Lorillard’s acquisition of Blu for $135m in 2012. But the arrival of tobacco companies has alarmed some public health experts who see their presence as a ploy to gain respectability and, paradoxically, to keep smokers hooked on cigarettes. It also raises a fundamental question: is this the greatest innovation in tobacco harm reduction or a way to keep consumers addicted to the stuff?

The pioneers
In 1963, Herbert A Gilbert, a Korean-war veteran from Beaver Falls, Pennsylvania, filed a patent for a “smokeless non-tobacco cigarette”. Gilbert is considered the inventor of the e-cigarette but he was no scientist. He had studied business administration and worked at his father’s scrapyard, dabbling in hobbyist projects (he also designed a plastic sled and a particle reduction machine). “I’m basically a logical guy,” he says, speaking by telephone from Florida.
At that time, “everyone smoked”. Gilbert got through two packets a day, a habit formed aged 13, when his father handed him a pipe to mark his passage to manhood. As the health risks started to become more widely known, he decided to tackle the issue. Yet he could not get anyone to bite. “I took it to tobacco and medical companies,” he says. “No one was interested.”
“They wanted to wait until the patent expired. [Tobacco companies] are smart, they protect their business interests. They could make a bigger profit on cigarettes – that’s what they’re interested in,” says Gilbert, adding that he has “no bad feelings”.
In fact, Gilbert was unable to persuade even himself of the merits of his own product. “I was like everyone else. I enjoyed smoking and it wasn’t bothering me even though I invented the e-cigarette.” He didn’t quit until 20 years ago when he caught pneumonia. Then he stopped through the traditional route: going cold turkey.
It took another four decades after Gilbert’s invention before someone else picked up the baton. In 2003, Hon Lik, a Chinese pharmacist, developed a version to kick his own habit after his father died of lung cancer. It was his company Ruyan’s products that Umer Sheikh tried in 2006. Gilbert stresses the similarities between Lik’s invention and his own. “Does it have a battery? Is it in a tube? If it has a bill, webbed feet and goes ‘quack quack’, it’s a duck.”
Today’s devices follow the same basic principle as Gilbert’s patent, with an atomiser heating the liquid mixture of nicotine, flavourings and dilutants. The so-called cig-a-likes, shaped like cigarettes, are disposable. Others look like miniature oboes: users refill the liquid and the thick, stainless steel tube lets “vapers”, as users are called, enjoy a longer battery life.
While improved technology by small e-cigarette producers was important to winning over consumers, ultimately it was the outlawing of smoking in public places that prompted the growing demand.


Enter big tobacco
In February, Vype, the e-cigarette owned by British American Tobacco (BAT), aired an advertisement on British television, almost 50 years after cigarette adverts were first banned. It shows an athletic young man and a glossy-lipped woman running through an urban streetscape, before leaping through a burst of vapour. “Experience the breakthrough”, declares the tagline, promising “pure satisfaction for smokers”.
In the foyer of BAT’s headquarters in a squat, modern office block overlooking the Thames in central London, crisp pamphlets extol the group’s dedication to “harm reduction” and tobacco-free devices – even though cigarettes were the main source of the FTSE 100 company’s £5.5bn in pre-tax profits in 2012.
Big tobacco’s emerging dominance in the market is “a natural progression”, explains Des Naughton, who is in charge of BAT’s next-generation products. “We understand smokers.” Naughton has spent his career in the tobacco industry, selling cigarettes in the Middle East, eastern Europe and South Korea. He speaks in the precise terms typical of tobacco executives, keen to soften their image.
BAT launched Vype, its first e-cigarette, online last summer and then distributed it to 10,000 shops across the UK. It comes in a cigarette-lighter- shaped case, which clicks back like a Zippo. The e-cigarette itself is a short white stick, with a brown, squidgy tip. “It’s deliberate to look like a cigarette,” says Naughton, before adding: “The line between a conventional cigarette and a nicotine product should be pretty clear.”
The tobacco industry has a poor record with new products that contain the addictive nicotine but not tobacco. RJ Reynolds, the US maker of Camel cigarettes, pumped $300m into a “smokeless” cigarette in the 1980s. Initial reviews were not good. Smokers complained it tasted like burning plastic, and it was canned a year after launch.
The sudden growth in e-cigarettes’ popularity took tobacco multinationals by surprise. Last year, Goldman Sachs described e-cigarettes as one of eight “creative destroyers” – alongside 3D printers and big data – for their potential to overturn the tobacco industry. Wells Fargo, the investment bank, predicts revenues from e-cigarettes could overtake tobacco sales in the US in less than a decade.
But the industry has been forced to meet swelling demand. All the big four – RJ Reynolds, Philip Morris International, Japan Tobacco International and Imperial Tobacco – now have e-cigarettes either on the market or in development.
Most of the innovation has not been in-house but from small private companies that have been acquired by the tobacco companies. (Gamucci declines to comment on whether it has been targeted but says that remaining independent for a few more years would boost its sale price.)
E-cigarettes could prove the tobacco industry’s salvation in advanced economies. While cigarette sales in emerging markets are growing, anti-smoking policies in the developed world mean that sales have fallen.
Although some small players, hoping to be bought out, see the increased presence of tobacco companies as potentially highly lucrative, others fear the increasingly aggressive tactics. Earlier this year, Hon Lik’s company, now owned by Imperial Tobacco, filed a lawsuit in California against nine e-cigarette rivals, alleging they had violated its patents. The case is expected to drag on for years. While large tobacco companies are used to – and can afford – expensive legal fights, the smaller independents are unlikely to survive against such firepower. Nor are the tobacco companies taking a big financial risk by entering the market: the cost of buying a small e-cigarette company and its intellectual property is dwarfed by the billions earned by the industry each year.
But the e-cigarette market is seen by some as a ruse by tobacco companies hoping to improve their public image at the same time as generating profits from sales of conventional cigarettes. The first retail customer for Imperial Tobacco’s e-cigarette, which launched in February, was Boots, the chemist founded by Quakers.
More important is the prospect of e-cigarettes being classed as medicines – or aids to help smokers quit – in the UK when planned regulations come into practice in 2016. By bringing e-cigarettes in line with nicotine patches and gum, the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency will apply rules around, for example, the purity of the nicotine in e-cigarettes. This will have the strange effect of tobacco companies producing a medically approved product and supplying the National Health Service. This, in turn, will be likely to mean that only those with serious financial firepower – such as BAT and Gamucci, which has its own factory and patent – will be able to afford to meet such regulations.


The public health debate

Corporate Accountability International (CAI), a US non-governmental organisation which runs high-profile public health campaigns, has spoken out against the tobacco industry for two decades. Its efforts – together with those of other anti-tobacco campaigners – helped bring about the World Health Organisation Framework Convention on Tobacco Control in 2003. This was the world’s first health treaty, and has now been signed by 168 countries, all agreeing to a ban on tobacco advertising and sales to minors, to restrictions on lobbying and to clear warnings on all cigarette packaging.
CAI sees e-cigarettes as a way to keep people hooked on the real thing. “We increasingly refer to and treat e-cigarette companies as the tobacco industry, because they have the same interests and tactics as the tobacco industry,” explains John Stewart, director of the group’s Challenge Big Tobacco Campaign in an email.
He says that the makers of e-cigarettes and tobacco products want to delay regulation and “confuse public perception”, by marketing e-cigs as both a cessation product and a “trendy new consumer product” that gets round smoking bans.
CAI also accuses the industry of glamorising cigarettes. E-cigarettes, it says, are being marketed using the same messages that tobacco companies used to sell conventional cigarettes in the 1950s and 1960s. In the US, Blu has been criticised for running print adverts that echo the rugged Marlboro Man, invoking the same types of images that were once used to portray smoking as cool.
As for the health benefits of e-cigarettes, Martin McKee, a professor of public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, is clear: there aren’t any. He believes the devices are renormalising smoking and providing tobacco groups with a way to buy credibility and access to politicians. “This is not a respectable industry, and the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control is very clear that governments should not be having discussions with the tobacco industry.”
Anna Gilmore, director of the Tobacco Control Research Group at Bath University, says: “If e-cigarettes are to work for public health by reducing smoking of tobacco, then they need to compete with cigarettes – impossible to achieve if the same companies are selling both products. Tobacco companies do not want e-cigarettes to cannibalise their existing cigarette market. Instead, they want dual use of cigarettes and e-cigarettes, which has no public health benefit.”
There have been no long-term health studies on the risk of these nicotine delivery devices because they have not been around long enough. McKee, however, does not think they are the great aid to quitting smoking that they are proclaimed to be. Many smokers are also buying e-cigarettes, he says, conning themselves that they are giving up but in fact are using both e-cigarettes and cigarettes, upping tobacco companies’ profits.
Not everyone in the health community agrees. The leading UK charity Action on Smoking and Health (Ash) says that e-cigarettes can help people quit tobacco. Clive Bates, a former head of Ash, who helped devise the WHO’s Convention, believes the scepticism is in large part ideological rather than evidence-based. “There is an unfamiliarity and suspicion of anything market-based,” he says. “The public health establishment has quite a strong command-and-control mentality. Its bread and butter is prohibition, coercion, taxation.”
The debate among health advocates is often vociferous. When researchers from the University of California’s Center for Tobacco Research and Education produced a report saying that using e-cigarettes increased the likelihood of experimenting with traditional cigarettes and a large number of vapers engaged in dual use, Bates called the report “false, misleading” and said that it had “damaging conclusions”. He also labelled the research group a “slurry gusher of black propaganda”.
The battle over e-cigarettes isn’t being fought solely between public health campaigners and big tobacco. When McKee wrote an article in the British Medical Journal, criticising the product placing and marketing of e-cigarettes and calling for their advertising to be banned, he was roundly attacked by vapers. He was shocked by the rapidity, hostility and scale of their reaction to the article when it was posted on the BMJ website. One vaper even created a web page with a picture of him framed to look like a Soviet leader.


Vapers fight back

Some of those who are devoted to e-cigarettes have become proselytisers for the products and how they have changed their lives. A small but especially passionate group of them can be found at vaping meet-ups, such as the one that happens on Saturday nights in the Star of Kings, a pub in King’s Cross in north London. When you enter, the smell is sweet: a mix of custard, crème brûlée and bubblegum. Tucked in the corner is the source of the aroma – a dozen vapers.
What brings them here is their shared enthusiasm for vaping and their curious, often home-made devices. These e-cigarettes look nothing like cigarettes, or even cig-a-likes. One middle-aged man in a baseball cap inhales from a modified 1980s Nintendo video game controller.
When it comes to regulation, the conversation soon becomes technical. The vapers are fearful that regulation going through the European parliament would dilute the concentrate of liquid nicotine in the cartridges used in their home-made contraptions to such a degree that the experience would be meaningless. Many enthusiasts such as these are so worried that they have become active in lobbying European politicians.
Social media campaigns have been fierce. In December last year, as The X Factor final approached, a Twitter campaign helped get the #EUecigban briefly to overtake #xfactor in the number of hourly tweets. The swell of protests by grass-roots lobbyists as well as the slicker lobbying pressure exerted by tobacco and e-cigarette companies helped to derail EU proposals for tight regulations of the products.
“If something is under threat, you go out and learn about it,” says vaper Sarah Jakes. She and her peers are impassioned because they say that without their electronic substitute they would not have been able to quit real cigarettes. Rebecca Taylor, the Liberal Democrat MEP for Yorkshire and Humber, took up the issue after being repeatedly pestered by vaping constituents. Along with a group of other MEPs, she managed to get the EU to water down regulations.
“I wrote a blog asking people what they thought. Within a month, I had 80 comments. I normally have about three.” Vapers are more vociferous than usual constituents, she admits, “but to say it’s an orchestrated campaign is absolute rubbish.”
Gilbert, meanwhile, fresh from a cruise celebrating his 83rd birthday, is working on a new project. He is helping John Cameron, the brother of film director James, to create a new brand of e-cigarette called Emperor. He has no truck with those who believe that they are the same as conventional ones. Although it was a long time coming, he could not be happier that his invention has finally come of age: “I can’t tell you how satisfying it is to see how many lives have been saved through e-cigarettes.”


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Regulation: tobacco or medicine?

Regulators view e-cigarettes either as a health threat or a cure – some want to regulate them as medicines, others to classify them as tobacco products with all the restrictions that this implies.
The UK has chosen medicinal regulation, meaning that any e-cigarette on sale from 2016 has to be approved by the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency, like any other drug. This has not stopped regulators in Wales from proposing a public “vaping” ban.
The EU, originally poised to go down the medicine route, has since opted for a mixed approach. There will be restrictions on ingredients and the strength of the nicotine. But advertising will also be restricted, as it is for tobacco products.
Meanwhile, documents seen by the Financial Times reveal that the World Health Organisation is pushing to regulate e-cigarettes as tobacco, which would curtail advertising and lead to heavy taxes. Other countries, including Brazil and Australia, have banned e-cigarettes entirely.
Regulation in the US – the largest market – varies. On a federal level, the Food and Drug Administration is yet to decide how to classify e-cigarettes. But local regulators in cities across the US are considering following the example of Los Angeles and banning “vaping” in public places, just like tobacco.
Emma Jacobs is a feature writer for the FT’s Business Life. Duncan Robinson is UK companies reporter for the FT.
This article has been amended to reflect the fact that Los Angeles has banned vaping in public places and is no longer only considering it.