Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 57 ) - Feb., 19, 2011

Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 57 ) - Selection Effect ( 選擇效應 ) - Feb., 19, 2011

Selection effect is the single most powerful factor that shapes our behaviour and human society at large. It is so overpowering and yet extremely subtle that we are influenced by it without our conscious knowledge. A simple example will illustrate my point. The most generally accepted idea in human society is the mystical concept of destiny ( although a small percentage of the population like yours truly do not abide by it ). I respectfully submit that this is the result of the selection effect. Say, a teenage girl meets a boy to whom she is instantly attracted in a subway train one day while getting to work. Let us say they strike up a conversation and become friends thus starting a romance. More likely than not, the girl will be completely convinced that destiny has a hand in their chanced meeting. What about other passengers on the same train ? Are they not equally arranged by destiny to be there with the girl ? Why doesn't the girl feel that destiny has also tied her to the other people on the train ? The short answer is that she chooses to like her boy. She has, in fact, " chosen her own destiny ". That is the subconscious working of the selection effect or the exercise of her free will. I am not against believing in destiny despite my own rejection of the concept but I am suggesting that there could be other factors at work. Blindly following the destiny concept could possibly result in self fulfilling prophecies or degenerate into superstition that could be harmful.

Besides the example of destiny, there are other harmful phenomena such as double standards, prejudice, extremism and numerous other human shortcomings that have to do with seeing things only from one's own perspective. They are all mainly the result of the selection effect. To avoid falling victim to this devastatingly harmful selection effect, it is advisable to look at things from different angles and not just from your own point of view.

選擇效應，是影響我們行為最強的單一因素。它甚至會影響整個社會的動向。它是十分強有力和極端含蓄的力量，令我們暗地裏受它影響而不自知。我可以用一個簡 單的例子加以說明。在人類社會中，最廣泛被接受的玄妙概念，就是有命運存在的說法（ 雖然有少部份人，包括本人在內, 不相信命運）。我沒有存心不敬地認為，命運之說，是選擇效應的結果。比例說，某天有一位少女，在上班時，在地鐵上和她一位鍾情的少年相遇。兩人互相傾慕而 交談起來，於是一段戀情便展開。在那位少女的角度看，她大多數都會認為是命運的安排。那麼她和其他同車的乘客，又是否有命運安排呢？為什麼她不會以命運之 說，來形容其他乘客呀！其實，她是對那位少年，作了她的個人選擇，認定了他是生命的一部分，亦即是說，那位女孩自己選擇了這般命運，不是命運安排她的生 命, 這是她自由意志的發揮才對。我並不反對別人相信命運，只不過認為有其他因素，推動所為命運之說。盲目地迷信命運，可能會導致有害的自行成真預言，那便十分 不幸了。

除了以上有關命運的例子，另外選擇效應的壞效果實在數不清，它們包括雙重標準，各色各樣的偏見，極端主義等，不勝枚舉。它們都是因為以自己和單一的角度看事物 所做成的惡果。而且都是由選擇效應所導致的。為避免受到它的禍害，我們必須從多方面分析事物，不要坐井觀天，卻要推己及人，便可享受海闊天空。

JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )