In the research conducted into many real world complex network
systems, scientists have discovered one very crucial point about any network. This point
is, in fact, a very pessimistic conclusion. Regardless of how meticulous designers have
been in the installation of safety devices in the most sophistcated of all networks such as
national defence computer networks or electricity grids that span entire continents, there
are bound to be some weak spots in any system that cannot be revealed until disasters
strike. Put it in another way, accidents of some unforeseeable nature may happen no
matter how hard scienitists try to anticipate and prevent their occurrence.
Nowadays, most networks have the highest possible tolerance against breakdowns. Despite this high standards in their design, it is a foregone conclusion that accidents could and will happen. In his book called “ Normal Accidents “, the social scientist Charles Perrow came to the same pessimistic conclusion based on the cascade effect which shows the inherent unpredictability in any system. The case studies supporting his conclusion ranged from the Three Mile Island nuclear accident to the Challenger Space Shuttle disaster.
In fact, a simple example will illustrate how inconspicuous some risk factors for a potential disaster can be. A few years back, there was a strange phenomenon that had boggled the minds of the United Kingdom electrical grid engineers for over a year after they had updated and improved their supply network. The problem was this. During certain days in the week the then newly updated electricity supply grid encountered some overload problems during off-peak hours in the evening with apparently no good reasons at all. So much demand for electricity arose during just 20 odd minutes that the grid engineers had to switch on the reserve units. At first, the engineers suspected a design fault in the computer program that runs the grid. After millions of dollars had been spent on reassessing the computer software they found no bugs. Then one shrewd mind in the middle management noticed that all these electricity supply crises mostly occurred during the soccer season.
Finally, a mundane reason was found to be the culprit. During the time out after the first half of every match the T.V.viewers started to scramble to put on their electrical kettles to make themselves a cup of coffee. This mad rush to make the best use of the time out led to a synchronised state being precipitated among the viewers that ultimately caused the cascade effect. A disastrous electrical blackout could have occurred resulting in great economic losses or even possible injuries to human life. Such seemingly inconspicuous reasons could hardly have come across the minds of the computer software program engineers during the designing stage of the electricity supply grid.
This real life episode has demonstrated beyond reasonable doubt that life is complicated and that no amount of planning is capable of providing an absolute guarantee against all possible contingencies. This is also a wake up call for arrogant complacency. Remember the Titanic disaster and the Uncertainty Principle in Quantum Theory. This latter mystical principle is sometimes applicable to the macro-world as well as the subatomic realm and has a lot of philosophical implications for our daily lives as well as in politics and
economics ( e.g. the impossible task of planned economies ).
Nowadays, most networks have the highest possible tolerance against breakdowns. Despite this high standards in their design, it is a foregone conclusion that accidents could and will happen. In his book called “ Normal Accidents “, the social scientist Charles Perrow came to the same pessimistic conclusion based on the cascade effect which shows the inherent unpredictability in any system. The case studies supporting his conclusion ranged from the Three Mile Island nuclear accident to the Challenger Space Shuttle disaster.
In fact, a simple example will illustrate how inconspicuous some risk factors for a potential disaster can be. A few years back, there was a strange phenomenon that had boggled the minds of the United Kingdom electrical grid engineers for over a year after they had updated and improved their supply network. The problem was this. During certain days in the week the then newly updated electricity supply grid encountered some overload problems during off-peak hours in the evening with apparently no good reasons at all. So much demand for electricity arose during just 20 odd minutes that the grid engineers had to switch on the reserve units. At first, the engineers suspected a design fault in the computer program that runs the grid. After millions of dollars had been spent on reassessing the computer software they found no bugs. Then one shrewd mind in the middle management noticed that all these electricity supply crises mostly occurred during the soccer season.
Finally, a mundane reason was found to be the culprit. During the time out after the first half of every match the T.V.viewers started to scramble to put on their electrical kettles to make themselves a cup of coffee. This mad rush to make the best use of the time out led to a synchronised state being precipitated among the viewers that ultimately caused the cascade effect. A disastrous electrical blackout could have occurred resulting in great economic losses or even possible injuries to human life. Such seemingly inconspicuous reasons could hardly have come across the minds of the computer software program engineers during the designing stage of the electricity supply grid.
This real life episode has demonstrated beyond reasonable doubt that life is complicated and that no amount of planning is capable of providing an absolute guarantee against all possible contingencies. This is also a wake up call for arrogant complacency. Remember the Titanic disaster and the Uncertainty Principle in Quantum Theory. This latter mystical principle is sometimes applicable to the macro-world as well as the subatomic realm and has a lot of philosophical implications for our daily lives as well as in politics and
economics ( e.g. the impossible task of planned economies ).
