Sunday, December 15, 2013

Will 2014 Finally, Really, Truly Bring an End to the Financial Crisis? TIME

Will 2014 Finally, Really, Truly Bring an End to the Financial Crisis?

Short answer: no. After five years of recession and joblessness, the global economy is looking much better, but plenty of problems linger

By Michael Schuman @MichaelSchumanDec. 13, 2013Add a Comment

Japan World Markets Dollar — Shuji Kajiyama / AP

Yes, it’s that time of year again. Opening presents under the Christmas tree. Battling crowds at the shopping malls. Making New Year’s resolutions we have no intention of keeping. And asking what has become a perennial question: Will the next year finally bring the financial crisis to a close?

Ever since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, a scarred world has been wanting a positive answer. Each year brings new hope; each year has seen that hope dashed. Will 2014 be any different?

Much recent economic news is cause for holiday cheer. In the U.S., the recovery seems to be picking up steam. Third-quarter GDP growth for the world’s largest economy was recently revised upward to an annual 3.6%, while a healthy job market in November dropped the unemployment rate to 7%, the lowest in five years. In the eurozone, the financial turmoil caused by its sovereign debt crisis has been quelled, along with its worst-ever recession, and next year the common-currency union looks poised to return to positive growth. China has so far dodged worries about an earth-rattling “hard landing,” with growth slower but still enviable. Even stodgy Japan has stirred to life, thanks to some unorthodox policymaking by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Overall, the IMF expects 2014 to see a hefty boost to world growth, to 3.6% from 2.9% this year.

There are other encouraging signs that the momentum can be sustained. A bipartisan budget deal reached this month by the U.S. Congress could alleviate some of the political uncertainty that has plagued the American economy. A recent agreement to cut trade-impeding red tape at the World Trade Organization – the first pact reached in its 18-year history – suggests that governments have become more willing to set aside parochial interests to boost global commerce.

Yet dangers remain. With the U.S. economy improving, the Federal Reserve will likely begin to scale back – or “taper” – its large bond-buying program aimed at stimulating growth. Unwinding such a massive and extreme policy will be unprecedented, and the consequences on global financial markets are thus uncertain. In mid-2013, the mere suggestion from the Fed that it may begin tapering sparked global chaos as money stampeded out of emerging markets that were thought to be risky, such as India and Indonesia, tanking their currencies and stock markets.

The world’s most advanced economies are also far from stable. In Japan, Abe must press ahead with tough reforms, such as liberalizing over-protected markets, in order for the country’s revival to gain speed. Europe, too, isn’t out of the woods just yet. Fears that the region could tumble into debilitating deflation have been on the rise. Even though sick economies like Italy and Spain have been on the upswing, they still suffer from huge spare capacity, while the performance of the supposedly healthier “core” economies, like France, remains tepid. That’s why research firm Capital Economics recently declared that in Europe “the crisis is not yet over.”

Just as worrying is the state of the world’s big emerging markets. Countries like China and India had shaken off the worst of the Great Recession and their growth helped prevent an even deeper downturn. But now they’ve fallen on hard times themselves. India is in the middle of its most severe slowdown in a decade, and with a general election looming in 2014 it is uncertain when squabbling politicians will restart the free-market reforms necessary to spur faster growth.

Policymakers in China are attempting to rein in rising debt while embarking on bold reforms that would open up financial markets and improve bloated state-owned enterprises – a complicated, politically sensitive process that could drag on the nation’s economic ascent. Investment bank Nomura projects that China’s GDP growth will slip under 7% in 2014. The last time that happened was 1990.

Most importantly, though, the top-line improvement in the global economy hasn’t completely trickled down to Main Street. Unemployment in the eurozone remains at a biting 12.1%, while more than 47 million Americans are stuck on food stamps, only marginally fewer than a year ago. Until the lives of all those who suffered during the financial crisis are repaired, it will be impossible to say it has truly ended.

An Investment In The Future - TIME

An Investment In The Future

By Susan CaminitiDec. 13, 2013Add a Comment

Some people spend their days thinking about how to get ahead in life. Then there are those, like Anna Maria Chávez, who focus on helping others move forward.

The CEO of Girl Scouts of the USA recalls as a little girl being awakened late at night by conversations her parents would have at the kitchen table with neighbors. “When people received a letter from the federal government or other agency, my parents would explain to them what it meant,” Chávez says. “Growing up, there was an emphasis on working toward solutions that could benefit as many people as possible.”

It’s no surprise, then, that public service has been a cornerstone of Chávez’s life. After earning an undergraduate degree from Yale and a law degree from the University ofArizona, she spent nearly a decade in federal government, including positions at the Small Business Administration and the Federal Highway Administration. Chávez’s time in government, coupled with her training as a lawyer, instilled the importance of deliberate and long-term decision-making. “I’m very passionate about the work I do, but I’m also a data-driven attorney and that’s what I use to make decisions,” she says. “I want to know what’s happening today and the long-term implications for anything I undertake.”

She has put that approach to good use since taking over the top spot at the Girl Scouts in 2011. The 101-year-old organization, with 2.3 million scouts and 890,000 adult volunteers, was facing challenges. Among the most urgent were declining enrollment and the need to stay relevant to a generation of young women with so many more options than ever before.

Trusting her belief in her deliberate, data-driven decision-making, Chávez turned to an organizational design firm. They got input from more than 12,000 people, inside and outside the Girl Scouts. “If we were going to position ourselves as the premier leadership organization for girls for the next 100 years, we needed to know what to focus on,” she says.

What emerged was the decision to build a technology platform within the Girl Scouts to better reach out to current members and alumnae. Chávez says the feedback also revealed how important it was to train and reward volunteers in order to minimize turnover. “Both of these issues have been the major focus of our organization since I started,” she says.

Chávez is also convinced the organization can play a vital role in leadership development for girls. “When someone thinks about the Girl Scouts, I want them to see it as an investment in their daughter or granddaughter,” she says. Chávez points to recent studies done by the Girl Scouts showing that women who participated in the organization as young girls grow up to have higher levels of education, make, on average, $12,000 more a year in salary, and vote more often than non-alumnae. “I want people to see the return on investment for their involvement and how they’re helping to shape future leaders,” she says.

Although she heads an organization that has been part of the lives of 59 million American women, Chávez still relies on the values instilled in her many years ago. “Whenever I’ve had the opportunity to do something significant, I’m always reminded of the quote ‘To whom much is given, much is expected,’” she says. “That’s how I try to live my life.”

Here’s How to Give the Perfect Gift This Holiday - TIME

Here’s How to Give the Perfect Gift This Holiday

http://business.time.com/2013/12/14/heres-how-to-give-the-perfect-gift-this-holiday/#ixzz2nYIdES9n

By Kit YarrowDec. 14, 20131 Comment

When holiday shopping, we defer to gift cards and items on wish lists because we think they’ll be appreciated—or at least not disappointing. But these gifts are rarely memorable. And they’re unlikely to get the gushing, “Oh my gosh, this is so thoughtful, how did you know?” response that gift givers would love to hear.

Everyone wants to give the perfect gift. But ultimately, and increasingly, we end up buying gift cards or items off of the recipient’s wish list. More than 80% of shoppers plan to purchase gift cards, and for the seventh year in a row, gift cards top the National Retail Federation’s list of most wanted gifts.

It’s understandable. In an era where entitlement often smothers gratitude, it’s harder than ever to nail the perfect gift. And with so much to choose from and pickier-than-ever recipients, at the very least we know a gift card or wish list item won’t cause eye-rolling, or move the recipient to re-gifting or selling the present online.

Though consumers say they want gift cards, for many the gift exchange feels like Santa’s simply doling out paychecks. Here’s how Bobby, one of the many consumers I talk to in my line of research, described last Christmas: “There were almost no boxes or wrapping. We all just gave each other gift cards and then thought about what we’d buy with them. My sisters both went online to start shopping.” Saundra put it this way, “I used to love getting cash from my grandparents, so I guess this is the same sort of thing, but the gift cards feel kind of boring — like it’s just about money, not about a gift.”

(MORE: The Worst Christmas Gifts of All Time)

While gift cards and wish list picks are never going to land in the worst gift ever category, there’s something missing in the transaction: relationship-fortifying thoughtfulness and the emotional boost that accompanies surprise.

For the benefit of anyone hoping to be a champion gift-giver, I asked people to share with me the most memorable, special, or just plain best gifts they’ve received over the years. Here’s what they said, categorized into different types of presents, and implicit in each story is a lesson that can be learned about what makes a gift truly great:

A Gift That Saves the Day
A basic household appliance as a thoughtful gift? Indeed. Mary Ann’s eyes welled up when she told me about the washing machine that her grandmother gave her. “My washer broke beyond repair and I was fretting about how I was going to get a new one,” she recalled. “My grammy, who was not rich, took me to Sears and told me to pick one out for my Christmas gift. It was so generous and so unexpected.”

Save-the-day gifts are, admittedly, often costly. But they don’t have to be. Candice thinks one of the best gifts she’s ever received was computer repair training from her son-in-law.

The Gift of Yourself
Similar to the computer help received by Candice, those who give presents that includes their personal time, effort, and participation get a leg up toward becoming top-notch gift-givers. “My wife gave me tickets to see my favorite band, Furthur,” shared Jason. “But the best part is that she agreed to go with me even though she’s not much of a fan. She went with a really good attitude and having her with me was the best gift she could have given me.”

(MORE: There’s a Good Reason Not to Give Your Loved Ones Special Gifts This Year)

Annetta’s sister spent a year crafting a custom-designed needlepoint pillow that Annetta says she will treasure her whole life. “She did all that work for me, and it’s beautiful,” she said. Several parents said their all-time favorite gifts were customized coupon books or gift certificates good for things like yard work on demand or simply kisses from their kids.

The Impossible, Un-Gettable Gift
Many of the adults I spoke with mentioned gifts they were given as children as among their lifetime favorites. Diana said she positively craved Gumby’s pal Pokey, and David said he begged Santa for a toy Colt 45 gun. Without funds of their own, they were at the mercy of their parents’ generosity because they couldn’t buy these toys themselves. The wanting of something that’s out of reach intensifies the experience of getting and solidifies memory. It also puts givers on par with Santa.

This idea explains why Mitch felt a similar level of joy when he got tickets to a sold-out sporting event from his best friend. The same is true for Patrice, whose mother gave her a one-of-a-kind family painting that she’d admired for years.

The Gift of Support
Helping a loved one ease into a potentially difficult transition can be a wonderful gift, sending a clear message that you support the recipient through and through. “My husband hadn’t been thrilled about what we’d been eating since I started on this health kick,” recalled Janice. “But he gave me a juicer! It was such an act of support.”

Similarly, Jeffrey’s parents bought him a warm winter coat, boots, gloves and a muffler as a means of supporting his moving to Chicago for a new job. According to Jeffrey, “It was a kind of a send-off kit and it meant a lot to me.”

The Thoughtful Never-Expected Gift
We’ve all explicitly asked for something we either needed or desperately wanted, and we’ve of course been forever grateful when those requests were answered. But nothing quite matches the gift giver who shows their knowledge and appreciation of another person by finding exactly the right present, without the recipient ever asking for it—or perhaps even thinking of it.

(MORE: It’s the Most Rant-Filled Time of the Years)

Surprise opens the memory gates, which is why such gifts are remembered fondly for years afterward. Sabrina, for instance, was both shocked and thrilled when her children all chipped in to buy her an airplane ticket to attend her high school reunion. At the time, Sabrina had no idea that her children were aware she’d been wrestling with the decision about whether or not to go.

Gifts for someone related to a favorite hobby can be terrific, but also so-so since the givers rarely understand and appreciate the subject matter as much as the recipient. Whiskey lover Todd, for instance, told me this of the scotch he’s often given for Christmas: “It’s appreciated but not what I’d call memorable.” Last year, however, a friend noticed that Todd had a special preference for scotches produced in one particular area of Scotland and gave him a bottle from that specific region. “Most people don’t know scotch well enough to know the difference,” said Todd. “He put some thought into it.”

I’ve spoken with golfers, knitters and motorcycle enthusiasts, all have similar stories: The best gifts are the ones that go beyond the obvious and are something truly unique to the tastes of the recipient. Like the gift that Robert’s daughter gave him – a tool for fishing golf balls out of water. “She remembered a story I told about hitting the water on three holes,” he said. “It was a cute gift … and thank god not another box of golf balls.”

The point of these anecdotes is that thinking deeply about what a recipient might like and searching down an unexpected treasure for that person is the sort of thoughtfulness and caring that signifies how much the individual means to you. It also strengthens the relationship between giver and recipient — the best, most valuable gift of all.

Kit Yarrow chairs the psychology department of Golden Gate University and was named the university’s 2012 Outstanding Scholar for her research in consumer behavior. She is a co-author of Gen BuY and is a frequent speaker on topics related to consumer psychology and Generation Y.

by Taboola

JKHC FORUM

Sunday, December 15, 2013