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June 10, 2015 3:33 am
Suu Kyi’s China trip a symbol of Myanmar power shifts
Michael Peel, Bangkok and Tom Mitchell, Beijing
Aung San Suu Kyi’s first trip to Beijing is not quite a historic piece of Nixon-to-China diplomacy. But it is a fresh sign of the former political prisoner’s pragmatic preparations for power — and a symbol of the interests she shares with the Middle Kingdom’s rulers at a rocky point in Sino-Myanmar relations.
Analysts say the visit, which begins later on Wednesday, is an effort by the two parties to show they can do business together ahead of likely big gains this year for Ms Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) in landmark Myanmar elections billed as cementing the country’s transition from military dictatorship.
China is a big investor in Myanmar and prizes the access it offers to the Indian Ocean, but tensions have emerged in areas ranging from the suspension of a large Beijing-backed dam project to conflict spillover at the countries’ shared border.
“This trip fills in a blank for both sides,” said Yun Sun, a senior associate at Washington’s Stimson Center think-tank. “If Aung San Suu Kyi were not to visit China, it would leave a spot on her credentials. And if you are China, you want to have at least a superficially good relationship with the potential future kingmaker of Myanmar.”
The Nobel peace laureate will spend five days in China at the invitation of the Communist party. Beijing has yet to confirm reports from Myanmar of talks with President Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, prime minister.
Ms Suu Kyi’s long-flagged visit comes months before nationwide elections in Myanmar, the first since the military dictatorship of almost half a century stepped down in favour of a quasi-civilian government in 2011.
Ms Suu Kyi’s trip comes weeks after Thura Shwe Mann, a former Myanmar junta number three who is now the speaker of parliament’s lower house, met President Xi in Beijing, noted Christian Lewis, an associate at Eurasia Group, the political risk analyst.
“The sequence of visits likely reflects the fact that Beijing sees Shwe Mann as the strongest candidate for Myanmar’s next president, but recognises the rising power and influence of Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD in legislative politics,” Mr Lewis said.
China’s relations with Myanmar were never better than when Ms Suu Kyi was a prisoner for 15 years in her own home and her then pariah state relied on its northern neighbour for investment and diplomatic support.
But Myanmar’s political opening has brought cooler relations with China, as gratitude for Beijing’s support mixes with anger at perceived abuses of its political and economic dominance.
Public protests led Myanmar’s government to stop work in 2011 on the Chinese–backed Myitsone dam in the north of the country, while villagers in the country’s north-west have faced violent security force crackdowns during years of rallies against the Chinese-operated Letpadaung copper mine.
China [will] want to have at least superficially good relationship with the future kingmaker of Myanmar
- Yun Sun, senior associate at Stimson Center
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China's own grievances were highlighted when its military last week launched rare live-ammunition exercises in a border region, close to where the Myanmar army is fighting with rebels on the other side of the frontier. Myanmar’s bombing of rebel positions had earlier spilled into China, killing villagers.
Perhaps the most sensitive aspect of Ms Suu Kyi’s visit is her status in the west as a pro-democracy figurehead of the kind jailed by China. Her fellow Nobel peace laureate, Liu Xiaobo, the only Chinese winner of the honour, is serving an 11-year sentence for “inciting subversion”.
But US and European observers hoping for a ringing critique of Beijing’s policies are likely to be as disappointed as they are in Ms Suu Kyi's reluctance to speak out for Myanmar's persecuted Rohingya people.
She has tended to avoid anti-Chinese rhetoric and, unlike many of her fellow Nobel Prize winners, has shied away more generally from condemning alleged human rights abuses around the globe.
“She certainly doesn’t want to be seen as anti-China, and I don’t see anything that suggests she actually is,” said Thant Myint-U, a historian and author who has worked with Myanmar’s government on its peace process to end more than 60 years of civil conflict. “Her concerns have always been very domestic.”
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June 10, 2015 3:33 am
Suu Kyi’s China trip a symbol of Myanmar power shifts
Michael Peel, Bangkok and Tom Mitchell, Beijing
Aung San Suu Kyi’s first trip to Beijing is not quite a historic piece of Nixon-to-China diplomacy. But it is a fresh sign of the former political prisoner’s pragmatic preparations for power — and a symbol of the interests she shares with the Middle Kingdom’s rulers at a rocky point in Sino-Myanmar relations.
Analysts say the visit, which begins later on Wednesday, is an effort by the two parties to show they can do business together ahead of likely big gains this year for Ms Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) in landmark Myanmar elections billed as cementing the country’s transition from military dictatorship.
China is a big investor in Myanmar and prizes the access it offers to the Indian Ocean, but tensions have emerged in areas ranging from the suspension of a large Beijing-backed dam project to conflict spillover at the countries’ shared border.
“This trip fills in a blank for both sides,” said Yun Sun, a senior associate at Washington’s Stimson Center think-tank. “If Aung San Suu Kyi were not to visit China, it would leave a spot on her credentials. And if you are China, you want to have at least a superficially good relationship with the potential future kingmaker of Myanmar.”
The Nobel peace laureate will spend five days in China at the invitation of the Communist party. Beijing has yet to confirm reports from Myanmar of talks with President Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, prime minister.
Ms Suu Kyi’s long-flagged visit comes months before nationwide elections in Myanmar, the first since the military dictatorship of almost half a century stepped down in favour of a quasi-civilian government in 2011.
Ms Suu Kyi’s trip comes weeks after Thura Shwe Mann, a former Myanmar junta number three who is now the speaker of parliament’s lower house, met President Xi in Beijing, noted Christian Lewis, an associate at Eurasia Group, the political risk analyst.
“The sequence of visits likely reflects the fact that Beijing sees Shwe Mann as the strongest candidate for Myanmar’s next president, but recognises the rising power and influence of Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD in legislative politics,” Mr Lewis said.
China’s relations with Myanmar were never better than when Ms Suu Kyi was a prisoner for 15 years in her own home and her then pariah state relied on its northern neighbour for investment and diplomatic support.
But Myanmar’s political opening has brought cooler relations with China, as gratitude for Beijing’s support mixes with anger at perceived abuses of its political and economic dominance.
Public protests led Myanmar’s government to stop work in 2011 on the Chinese–backed Myitsone dam in the north of the country, while villagers in the country’s north-west have faced violent security force crackdowns during years of rallies against the Chinese-operated Letpadaung copper mine.
China [will] want to have at least superficially good relationship with the future kingmaker of Myanmar
- Yun Sun, senior associate at Stimson Center
Tweet this quote
China's own grievances were highlighted when its military last week launched rare live-ammunition exercises in a border region, close to where the Myanmar army is fighting with rebels on the other side of the frontier. Myanmar’s bombing of rebel positions had earlier spilled into China, killing villagers.
Perhaps the most sensitive aspect of Ms Suu Kyi’s visit is her status in the west as a pro-democracy figurehead of the kind jailed by China. Her fellow Nobel peace laureate, Liu Xiaobo, the only Chinese winner of the honour, is serving an 11-year sentence for “inciting subversion”.
But US and European observers hoping for a ringing critique of Beijing’s policies are likely to be as disappointed as they are in Ms Suu Kyi's reluctance to speak out for Myanmar's persecuted Rohingya people.
She has tended to avoid anti-Chinese rhetoric and, unlike many of her fellow Nobel Prize winners, has shied away more generally from condemning alleged human rights abuses around the globe.
“She certainly doesn’t want to be seen as anti-China, and I don’t see anything that suggests she actually is,” said Thant Myint-U, a historian and author who has worked with Myanmar’s government on its peace process to end more than 60 years of civil conflict. “Her concerns have always been very domestic.”
