Bitcoin: Price v hype - BBC NEWS

Bitcoin: Price v hype

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25332746

By Vanessa BarfordBBC News Magazine

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In today's Magazine

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Virtual currency Bitcoin has attracted increasing media attention over the past year. It's also soaring in value, with a single bitcoin surpassing $1,000 (£613) for the first time in November. So has the media hype driven the price hike?

To the average man in the street, Bitcoin is a complicated concept.

You might grasp what a typical currency is. The pound is influenced by a central bank - the Bank of England. When it puts up interests rates, or it's expected to, the value of the pound might subsequently go up.

If the Bank of England prints more money, or there is speculation that it will, the value's probably going to go down. Ultimately, the value's determined between buyers and sellers on the international markets.

Bitcoin's a bit different. There's no central bank. It's stateless. And the supply of Bitcoin is determined by an algorithm that allows computers around the world to "mine" the currency at a set rate per day. There's a limit - about 21m - to how many can ever be mined and no way to issue a flood of new Bitcoins and devalue those already in circulation.

The currency's value - according to about 60 exchanges around the world where Bitcoins are bought and sold - is volatile. Unlike with the dollar or the pound, prices can vary considerably from exchange to exchange, sometimes by as much as $200.

But compared with other currencies, Bitcoin's rise has been meteoric. One Bitcoin was worth $934 on the Tokyo-based Mt Gox exchange on 10 December - up from $14 at the beginning of the year. This Tokyo exchange now represents about 25% of Bitcoin trading, down from estimates earlier this year of about 80%, but remaining one of the largest.

At the same time, there has never been so much talk about virtual currency - in social media, in blogs and in the press. Depending on who you speak to, Bitcoin is either the currency of the future or the next big bubble.

Commentators have suggested a correlation between publicity and price rise before. In November, TechCrunch's Alex Wilhelm said Bitcoin's price had "never been worth more, or generated more headlines that I can recall. The two are likely connected" and the Financial Times' John Authers writes: "Time to take the Bitcoin bubble seriously."

It's hard to get a definitive measurement of Bitcoin's press coverage. But one crude and slightly unscientific way of measuring it is using media database Lexis Nexis. Searching for "bitcoin" across all English language news brought up 2,631 articles in November. This is up from 41 in January this year.

In online media and in blogs, Bitcoin came up 14,179 times in November in the US alone - up from 187 times in January, according to PR software company Cision UK.

So has Bitcoin's rising profile boosted its price?

Michael Jackson, a partner at venture capital firm Mangrove Capital Partners, says some changes in the price of Bitcoin have clearly been because of demand fuelled by media coverage.

He cites November's recent rise as an example. "There has for sure not been a single event that has economically justified a price increase of five times in any commodity - possibly ever - over 30 days other than pure speculation," he says.

On the surface, there seem to be some obvious correlations. But the caveat is that bursts of coverage have often stemmed from major events that would clearly have an impact on the value of the currency. Other outbreaks can't be traced to a particular event.

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Who invented Bitcoin?

• Mystery surrounds founder or founders of Bitcoin - 37-year-old Japanese man Satoshi Nakamoto named as original designer of software, but thought to be pseudonym for person or persons unknown
• Speculation that "Nakamoto" is British in origin, owing to British formatting in his or her work
• New Yorker investigation claimed Nakamoto was Irish computer scientist Michael Clear - he denies the allegations
• Smallest Bitcoin unit is called Satoshi in homage to founder

• Motherboard: Who Is Satoshi Nakamoto?

The closure of clandestine online marketplace Silk Road - which required users to pay for their transactions using Bitcoins and was famed for selling drugs and other illegal items - in October led to a surge in media coverage. While Bitcoin's price initially dropped, it quickly bounced back.

November saw an even greater spike in media coverage when a US Senate committee hearing unexpectedly said virtual currencies were a "legitimate financial service" with the same benefits and risks as other online payment systems. Bitcoin rocketed in value and broke the $1,000 mark just over a week later.

Garrick Hileman, an economic historian at the London School of Economics, thinks the "common denominator" in press hype and price hike tends to be when Bitcoin gets some regulatory attention.

"It might seem somewhat counterintuitive," says Hileman, noting the roots of Bitcoin's popularity in the difficulty of tracing transactions, "but on the whole regulation has seen the price of Bitcoin explode upwards. Publicity is a big driver of that."

He cites the price rise in April - which he thinks was largely attributable to regulatory guidance issued by the US Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, which oversees anti-money laundering efforts, as well as the Cypriot financial crisis - as another example. Media coverage also rose in both months.

But Bitcoin core developer Mike Hearn says most of the currency's price fluctuations are "self-fuelling".

"Sudden price movements attract the attention of the media, which writes about it, and that then causes more people to decide to get involved so the price goes up, so more people start speculating.

"This accelerates until it turns into a pure speculative bubble which then pops, leaving the price down from the peak but up from where it started," he says.

Hearn says this pattern has repeated itself several times, citing April's "huge press cycle" as an example. Coindesk Bitcoin Price Index charts Bitcoin soaring to more than $200 after a surge in media interest, then dropping sharply to $120 after the Mt Gox exchange was hit by hack attacks. Its value the increased again in the space of a week.

However, there are exceptions to the media-price correlation.

Media coverage on Lexis Nexis shot up to 2,548 mentions in May. It was the month that Silk Road was knocked offline by a cyberattack.

Bitcoin's price was not hit by volatility though.

Jackson believes the story was a "great general interest story - a kind of mysterious, James Bond story" - which captured the media's attention. But he says he is not convinced how much turnover the site was actually generating.

He says the whole market is driven by speculation not usage.

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How Bitcoins are valued

Like all currencies, Bitcoin's value is determined by how much people are willing to exchange it for.

To process Bitcoin transactions, a procedure called "mining" must take place, which involves a computer solving a difficult mathematical problem with a 64-digit solution.

For each problem solved, one block of bitcoins is processed. In addition the miner is rewarded with new bitcoins.

This provides an incentive for people to provide computer processing power to solve the problems.

To compensate for the growing power of computer chips, the difficulty of the puzzles is adjusted to ensure a steady stream of about 3,600 new bitcoins a day.

"If you look at the pound or a typical currency, there is movement all the time. But not many people are using Bitcoins to do real transactions.

"Since the value is purely driven by the demand from incoming investors, hoping to make a quick buck, rather than any utility, this growth seems close to a Ponzi scheme," he says.

There is also a small group of people that have huge vested interests in Bitcoin which are ramping up its value with stories of Bitcoin millionaires and its progress towards legitimacy, he argues.

There are currently about 11 million Bitcoins in existence, with some concentrated holdings, which explains why trading exchanges are more susceptible to media puffery than other currencies.

Jackson believes there is demand for a virtual currency - to enable people to pay for things and subscribe to content online without needing multiple different accounts, and to move or trade assets instantaneously without fees - and that existing regulation is adequate to support its use.

But he says Bitcoin's instability, untraceability and transaction irreversibility mean that it will never become the currency of the future in its current form.

"Media hype is creating buzz but we are a long way from it being a mainstream currency," he says.

Hileman says the history of alternative currencies "shouldn't give investors a lot of comfort, because they die" but the furore about Bitcoin is "the most exciting thing since the internet".

There has also been a tonal shift in media coverage, he argues. "There was a real hostility towards Bitcoin at the beginning. Now there are stories about Argentinean farmers using Bitcoin as a way of generating income for families," he says.

Buying Bitcoins while their price is so bubbly seems to be a gamble. TheEuropean Banking Authority has just issued a warning on the risks of virtual currencies, saying consumers using them as a means of payment are not protected by regulation.

But investing in companies that enable the ecosystem to develop could be a sensible use of a venture capitalist's money, Jackson muses.

Uncertainty after North Korea announces execution of leader's uncle - CNN

Uncertainty after North Korea announces execution of leader's uncle

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/13/world/asia/north-korea-uncle-executed/index.html?sr=fb121313northkorea930a

By Jethro Mullen and Tom Watkins, CNN

December 13, 2013 -- Updated 1558 GMT (2358 HKT)

In an image taken from footage shown by North Korea's KCTV and released by South Korea's Yonhap news agency on December 9, 2013, Jang Song-Thaek is reportedly being dragged away from his chair by two police officials during a meeting in Pyongyang. North Korea confirmed on December 9 that the powerful uncle of Kim Jong-Un, the nation's leader, had been removed. New reports from North Korea say that Jang has been executed.

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Jang Song Thaek: From adviser to 'traitor'

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STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• North Korea seems "not as stable as we thought," one analyst says
• Some observers warn a provocative move like a missile or nuclear test could follow
• Jang Song Thaek was married to Kim's aunt, was vice chairman of the top military body
• North Korea state media say Jang was convicted and executed

(CNN) -- As the shock sinks in of North Korea's extraordinary announcement of the execution of leader Kim Jong Un's uncle and former protector, government officials and analysts are trying to decipher what the brutal move means.

The ruthless disposal of Jang Song Thaek -- Kim's uncle by marriage who had, until recently, been regarded as the second-most powerful figure in the secretive, nuclear-armed nation -- has serious implications for North Korea, its neighbors and the United States, observers said.

But exactly what is going on inside the notoriously opaque North Korea regime remains as murky as ever.

"We don't have a clear sense of this at all," said Victor Cha, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who represented the United States in nuclear talks with North Korea.

Some saw the execution, which North Korean state media reported early Friday, as a chilling demonstration of total control by Kim, the young leader who came to power two years ago.

Chang: Regime like Richard III with nukes

N. Korean media: Kim's uncle 'worse than a dog'

North Korea: 'Unprecedented development'

Chang: Regime like Richard III with nukes

"I think what he's telling people -- the United States, South Korea, China, others -- is that he is his own man, that you are going to have to deal with him," said Philip Yun, executive director of the Ploughshares Fund, a nuclear nonproliferation group.

Who is Jang?

Jang, who was married to Kim's aunt, was vice chairman of North Korea's top military body and had often been pictured beside the young leader, who is believed to be around 30. He was considered to be the regent who secured Kim's assumption of power after the 2011 death of his father, Kim Jong Il.

But in a lengthy article foaming with outraged rhetoric, North Korea's official news agency on Friday accused Jang of trying to overthrow the state, describing him as "despicable human scum."

One big question is whether Kim acted out of strength, consolidating the power he has amassed over the past two years, or out of fear his uncle was building a rival force inside the regime.

Kim already removed the country's top general last year, Cha noted. By taking down Jang, he's axed a powerful figure from the country's dominant Workers' Party.

"It makes you wonder: If he's consolidating his power, what is he building it around?" Cha said. "He's basically attacking the two most important institutions in North Korea, which is the party and the military."

A U.S. official said, "Executing someone with Jang's pedigree would be a dramatic statement that Kim Jong Un intends to be ruthless in consolidating his control.

"The public airing of the power play under way -- which is highly unusual -- is probably sending shockwaves through North Korea's leadership cadre."

Provocative moves

Few analysts interpreted the execution, which took place days after the North had said Jang had been dramatically removed from his government posts, as a healthy sign.

"If two weeks ago, we thought that North Korea was somewhat stable, I think today people feel that it's not as stable as we thought it was," said Cha, author of "The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Future."

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Suh Sang-ki, a lawmaker in South Korea's governing Saenuri Party who sits on a parliamentary intelligence committee, said the decision to kill Jang suggests Kim's power is weaker than that of his father.

In a statement issued after a phone briefing from South Korea's National Intelligence Service, Suh said the execution appeared to be a pre-emptive effort to prevent any internal unrest over Jang's ouster.

Analysts said North Korea was likely to continue with the provocative moves under Kim that have strained its relations with South Korea, the United States and others.

"I think there's going to be a clear amount of brinksmanship," said Yun of the Ploughshares Fund. "I think if we continue to wait for him to do things, he's going to continue to shoot missiles, and he'll probably at some point decide to test a nuclear weapon."

Missile and nukes

North Korea carried out a long-range rocket launch a year ago and an underground nuclear test, its third so far, in February. The U.N. sanctions that followed were met by a barrage of threatening rhetoric from Pyongyang, directed at South Korea and the United States, which ratcheted up tensions in the region.

The situation has calmed since, and the North and South have resumed dialogue. The two sides have agreed to meet next week in their joint industrial zone on the North's side of the border.

But with the anniversary of Kim Jong Il's death, last year's rocket launch and now Jang's execution, Seoul is keeping a close eye on Pyongyang's actions, officials said.

The South Korean defense ministry said Friday that no unusual activities by the North Korean military had been detected.

"December has always been a month in which something happens with North Korea," Cha said. "And we're only halfway through it."

In Washington, a State Department official acknowledged having seen the report of Jang's execution. "While we cannot independently verify this development, we have no reason to doubt the official KCNA report," deputy spokeswoman Marie Harf said in a statement, referring to North Korea's state news agency.

"If confirmed, this is another example of the extreme brutality of the North Korean regime. We are following developments in North Korea closely and consulting with our allies and partners in the region," Harf added.

China, whose senior officials were considered to have close ties to Jang, described the recent developments as North Korea's "internal affairs."

Beijing hopes and believes that relations between the two countries "will continue (to) advance healthily and steadily," Hong Lei, a foreign ministry spokesman, said at a regular briefing Friday.

Opinion: How Kim Jong Un got rid of his uncle

'Worse than a dog'

The official North Korean report on the execution said a special military tribunal had been held Thursday against Jang, who was accused of trying to overthrow the state "by all sorts of intrigues and despicable methods."

It added, "All the crimes committed by the accused were proved in the course of hearing and were admitted by him."

Once his guilt was established, Jang was immediately executed, it said.

The KCNA report described Jang as a "traitor for all ages" and "worse than a dog," saying he had betrayed his party and leader.

Jang and his allies were accused of double-dealing behind the scenes, "dreaming different dreams" and selling the country's resources at cheap prices, thereby threatening North Korea's economic development, according to a KCNA statement this week.

"Jang desperately worked to form a faction within the party by creating illusion about him and winning those weak in faith and flatterers to his side," the statement said.

It also accused Jang of womanizing, drug use, gambling, eating at expensive restaurants and undergoing medical treatment in a foreign country.

Friday's KCNA report said Jang distributed pornographic pictures among his confidants and took at least 4.6 million euros ($6.3 million) "from his secret coffers and squandered it in 2009 alone."

Analysis: North Korean execution raises more questions than answers

CNN's Elise Labott, Jim Sciutto and Paula Hancocks, and journalist Yoonjung Seo contributed to this report.