North Korea's mystery ship: The curious case of the Hao Fan 6 - CNN

North Korea's mystery ship: The curious case of the Hao Fan 6

By Joshua Berlinger, CNN

Updated 0426 GMT (1226 HKT) December 8, 2017

Hong Kong (CNN)The United Nations brought down the hammer and that was it for the Hao Fan 6.

On October 10, the hulking, 460-foot (140 meter) cargo ship was banned from entering every single port across the globe, punished for violating sanctions on North Korea.

It was just south of South Korea the day the news was announced, according to tracking information by MarineTraffic. Its transponder pinged continuously until 11:17 p.m. Coordinated Universal Time, the data showed.

Then the Hao Fan 6 disappeared.

The Hao Fan 6 seen in South Korea in 2015.

The Hao Fan 6 seen in South Korea in 2015.

Fighter jets under sugar

The Hao Fan 6 was one of four ships the UN slapped with global port bans.

But it's not the first time North Korean ships have been sanctioned. The Jie Shun, one of the four banned ships, was caught by Egyptian authorities smuggling thousands of North Korean rocket-propelled grenades in 2016. Panamanian authorities detained the Chon Chon Gang in 2013 after finding MiG fighter jets, anti-aircraft systems and explosives hidden under bags of sugar.

Now, the net seems to have widened. The UN has recently passed resolutions blocking North Korea's ability to export goods like coal and metal ores -- big moneymakers for Pyongyang, that help fund everything from the lavish lifestyles of North Korea's elite to its rapidly advancing nuclear and missile programs.

"Shipping is the area that is in the most trouble now given the squeeze by the sanctions."

George Lopez, former UN Panel of Experts on North Korea member

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson renewed the call after North Korea tested a long-range ballistic missile in late November. He said the international community needs to take additional measures against the country, "including the right to interdict maritime traffic transporting goods to and from the DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea)."

"Shipping is the area that is in the most trouble now given the squeeze by the sanctions," said George Lopez, a former member of the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea who now teaches at the University of Notre Dame. "Once you're in a situation like you are in now, when there's virtually no exports allowed, then you get a chance to really interdict virtually everything."

The sanctions dovetail with US President Donald Trump's plan to quash North Korea's nuclear march by putting together a global coalition dedicated to cutting off North Korea's cashflow. The hope is to eventually get the hermit nation's leader, Kim Jong Un, to relinquish his nuclear arsenal in exchange for sanctions relief.

The US Treasury Department has gone even further than the UN, sanctioning 59 vessels for their dealings with North Korea. But independent North Korea watchers have identified as many as 180 ships connected to the hermit state, which begs the question: How many North Korean ships like the Hao Fan 6 are still roaming the high seas, bringing in cash for the Kim regime?

A ship crosses dry land

The Hao Fan 6's journeys in the weeks before the ban show the massive ship, which can transport 8,343 tons of cargo, appearing to travel on land across large swaths of South Korea.

These aren't errors. They're clues.

This map from Big Ocean Data shows the Hao Fan 6's routes for about the past two years. The lines crossing land show the ship would turn off its transponder, only to turn it on in a new location.

Most modern vessels are tracked using an Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponder. The International Maritime Organization stipulates large ships must have one on board.

Turn it off and a ship can hide from prying eyes or potential threats. Once turned back on, tracking data will show a big and unusual jump.

"There is little that can be done to prevent captains independently switching them off," Andrea Berger, a senior research associate who specializes in North Korea's weapons programs and sanctions at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, told CNN.

After going silent on October 10, the Hao Fan 6 didn't turn on its transponder for the rest of the month.

Berger said it's common for North Korean-linked vessels engaging in illegal behavior to turn off their transponders for periods of their voyage.

Experts say transponders are usually shut off if a ship is being threatened, often due to piracy.

Three trips to North Korea

The Hao Fan 6's historical data shows three visits to North Korea in 2016 and activity on traditional coal shipping routes.

Twice in the fall it was tracked near a North Korean port city, Nampo. The first time was September 27.

The Hao Fan 6 pinged these locations from January 1, 2014 to November 14, 2017.

The Hao Fan 6 next pinged on October 17. It was near Lanshan, a coastal city in China with a port and coal terminal. Tracking data shows the ship then headed back to Nampo. It was off the North Korean coast again on October 20. Then it went silent for days.

If the Hao Fan 6 was transporting coal, it would've been in violation of a UN Security Council Resolution passed in March 2016. The Security Council has passed multiple rounds of sanctions since, most recently in September this year.

CNN asked Hugh Griffiths, the coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea -- the body charged with monitoring the enforcement and efficacy of sanctions on the hermit nation -- about the possibility the Hao Fan 6 was moving coal. He did not comment, but said it's vital that UN members fully implement Security Council resolutions.

"Part of that is very much paying close attention to vessels delivering coal," Griffiths said.

Coal has provided a crucial economic lifeline for Pyongyang. In 2015, coal exports netted nearly a billion dollars of revenue, according to UN data. Chinese companies were big buyers, as North Korean coal is close by and cheap.

North Korea's 2015 exports

Marshall Billingslea, the assistant secretary for terrorist financing at the US Treasury Department, in his testimony to the US Senate in September, used satellite imagery and AIS data to show three ships transporting illicit North Korean coal -- and turning off their AIS transponders while doing so -- while traveling between China and Russia.

More recently, Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, called for the global community to do more to crack down on North Korean sanctions violations.

"This Council has banned coal exports from North Korea. And yet, we have reports of the regime continuing to smuggle coal into neighboring Asian countries using deceptive tactics to mask the coal's origins," Haley told the United Nations shortly after the November North Korean missile test.

Two offices in Hong Kong

On paper, the Hao Fan 6 is owned by a Hong Kong-based company -- Trendy Sunshine Hong Kong Limited. The company's address is listed as the 10th floor of Hong Kong's Billion Centre, according to Equasis -- a shipping information database developed by European Union and French Authorities -- and publicly available corporate records provided to the Hong Kong government.

When CNN visited the building, Trendy Sunshine was not there. Instead, the office, with its gleaming marble foyer and glass walls overlooking Hong Kong's iconic Victoria Harbor, is the headquarters for SBC International, Trendy Sunshine's company secretary.

A sign for SBC International at Hong Kong's Billion Centre.

A sign for SBC International at Hong Kong's Billion Centre.

In Hong Kong, it's not illegal for companies to share an address with their company secretary. Hong Kong requires companies to have both a director and company secretary, but only the director has to be an actual person. Companies based outside Hong Kong that do business in the city do it in order to avoid incurring the cost of a new office.

But, it's also not an uncommon tactic for alleged sanctions evaders. A CNN investigation in October found that companies accused of helping North Korea evade sanctions create shell companies in Hong Kong due to the city's relatively lax oversight laws.

Businesses like SBC offer incorporation services to foreign companies. They sometimes work for thousands at a time -- SBC International's website says its staff of more than 400 service more than 400,000 clients. It has offices in Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Nanjing.

The Hao Fan 6's operator, Shen Zhong International Shipping, also shares an address with one of SBC International's four offices in Hong Kong. While a ship's operator doesn't own the vessel, it is in charge of managing the day-to-day operations, and hiring a captain and crew.

Responses from Hong Kong authorities and businesses

Hong Kong police and its Joint Financial Intelligence Unit would not comment.

The city's Information Services Department did not respond to an email.

The Hong Kong Marine Department said it does not have information on vessels that aren't Hong Kong-flagged. The Hao Fan 6 flies the flag of St. Kitts and Nevis.

The city's Trade and Industry Department said the issue does not fall under their purview.

SBC International did not respond to emails, calls and voicemails. CNN visited its headquarters, where a receptionist refused to answer questions or put us in touch with a manager. CNN called a number listed for the cement business owned by Yue Diangang, Trendy Sunshine's sole shareholder, but got an automated message saying the number did not exist.

SBC's sharing of addresses with Trendy Sunshine and Shen Zhong isn't a sign of wrongdoing in itself. But they are red flags.

"This is not what I would expect to see from a normal ship. This is more along the lines of what I would expect to see in a case where we already know something strange is going on," said Jessica Knight, the director of analysis at Sayari Analytics, a Washington-based firm that analyzes connections between businesses across the globe.

Trendy Sunshine has one sole owner and shareholder: Yue Diangang. According to Hong Kong corporate records, he is based in Rongcheng City in China's Shandong province. Knight and the Sayari Analytics team were only able to find one individual with that name in all of Shandong -- a cement trader.

It's odd that a cement trader is listed as the owner of a ship, instead of a person in the logistics or shipping industry.

"That is really weird," Knight said. "We're not seeing people behind these companies that I would expect to be behind these companies."

One former owner

Trendy Sunshine took control of the Hao Fan 6 from a company called Zhejiang Haofan Shipping on February 24, 2017, Equasis records show.

That same day, Zhejiang Haofan Shipping transferred ownership of a different ship in its fleet, the Hao Fan 2, to a company called Advance Superstar (Hong Kong) Limited. Like Trendy Sunshine, Advance Superstar shares an address with a branch of SBC International.

Equasis records show Zhejiang Haofan currently owns only one ship: Hao Fan 3.

Like the Hao Fan 6, the Hao Fan 3's AIS data shows it making massive jumps -- it can be seen crossing land on South Korea and Japan, a sign its transponder was turned off.

This map from Big Ocean Data shows the Hao Fan 3's routes for the three months prior to November 27. The lines crossing land show the ship would turn off its transponder, only to turn it on in a new location.

Seeking comment from Zhejiang Haofan Shipping

CNN called and texted three numbers for different individuals connected with Zhejiang Haofan Shipping found by Sayari Analytics:

One belonged to shareholder Shen Zhongchang whose name shares the first two characters in Chinese (沈忠) with Shen Zhong International Shipping, the Hao Fan 6's operator. No one answered when CNN called a number listed for Shen multiple times.

A phone number listed for another shareholder was disconnected.

A third individual, Tang Honghui, said he no longer owns any stake in the Zhejiang Haofan Shipping and would not answer any other questions.

Though the Hao Fan 2 and 3 have not been caught doing anything wrong and have not been sanctioned by the United Nations or United States, both ships have been turning off their AIS transponders and sailing in the same areas as the Hao Fan 6 -- which Knight says is enough to warrant monitoring.

"You have the UN taking action against this vessel (the Hao Fan 6), saying that it's been engaged in this unacceptable behavior on behalf of North Korea, and at the same time there are two other vessels controlled by the same people that are still active," Knight said.

"You can show not only are they controlled by the same people but the people are not engaged in what appears to be normal commercial structures and normal activities," she said.

CNN texted Griffiths at the United Nations if his team was aware of the Hao Fan 2 and 3's potentially suspicious activity, but did not receive a reply.

Going in circles

More than a month after it went dark on October 10, the Hao Fan 6's signal pinged in the East China Sea. It was hundreds of kilometers away from its last location.

Then it went in circles for more than two weeks.

This could be a way to distract investigators, according to Lopez, the former Panel of Experts member. He said he had not seen anything like this before, though the panel was not as focused on North Korean shipping when he was a member.

Location tracking from Big Ocean Data shows the Hao Fan 6's position history from October 31 until December 4. The ship stopped sending its location in mid-October and restarted on November 13.

If the Hao Fan 6 tries to enter a law-abiding port, authorities would likely look at the ship manifest and route history before it requests to dock. Sketchy or incomplete traffic data would be a red flag, and the ship would likely run into problems with customs.

With nowhere to go, no port to call home and traveling with no apparent direction, the Hao Fan 6 now seems to be a drifter.

It's still going in circles.

The Party of Lincoln Is Now the Party of Predators - Intelligencer ( New York Magazine )

THE NATIONAL CIRCUS

December 7, 2017

The Party of Lincoln Is Now the Party of Predators

By

Frank Rich

Most weeks, New York Magazine writer-at-large Frank Rich speaks with contributor Alex Carp about the biggest stories in politics and culture. Today: Roy Moore and the Alabama Senate race, the repercussions of Weinstein’s fall, and Trump’s calculus on Jerusalem.

Though the Republican National Committee has restored funding for Alabama’s Roy Moore, Republican members of Congress — and even the committee’s own officials — are keeping their distance from party support. Is it better for the GOP if Moore wins or if he loses?

Even The Wall Street Journal editorial page, which sold its soul to Donald Trump after the election, said this morning that “you have to believe in magic to think this is going to end well for Republicans.” Anticipating the resignation of Al Franken, the editorial pleaded with its party, from Trump down, to disown Moore — if only because the departures of both Franken and John Conyers rendered moot the GOP’s main talking point to deflect any questions about the party’s embrace of Moore. But while the Democrats’ resignations have now ripped away that moral fig leaf, there’s zero chance the GOP will ditch Moore. Sure, some Republicans in Washington, including Mitch McConnell, have denounced Moore. But many of them have previously disowned Trump on multiple occasions — including, most pertinently, after the release of the Access Hollywood tape — only to fold soon after. The RNC’s renewed funding of Moore’s campaign tells you all you need to know about the Vichy Republicans. That’s an action that speaks louder than words. The GOP wants to add another vote to its slender Senate majority and will swallow anything required to get it.

The Party of Lincoln is now the Party of Predators. Maybe it always was: Do recall the histories of such GOP congressional leaders as Denny Hastert and Mark Foley. It should also be noted that a tolerance for sexual predation may be well on its way to becoming a majority plank among the GOP rank and file. While a new Quinnipiac poll finds that 77 percent of Democrats believe elected officials should resign in the face of multiple sexual harassment accusations, only 51 percent of Republicans do.

Moore has the wholehearted support of the Republican president, and if he is elected on Tuesday in Alabama (the likely outcome, I’d guess), the Senate will seat him no matter the posturing to the contrary. Among Republican elites, the only naysayers to Trump are either out of power (Mitt Romney) or not likely to face another election. In that latter category, even John McCain violated his professed principles about deficits and a “regular” legislative process to sign on to the tax bill that extravagantly rewards Republican donors. He and his colleagues will shed crocodile tears about the new sexual miscreant in the Senate chamber all the way to the bank.

According to the Times’ latest Harvey Weinstein reporting, the mogul’s reign of sexual harassment and assault relied not just on his own lawyers and investigators, but on a “complicity machine” of lower-level enablers that included the National Enquirer, agents at Creative Artists Agency, executives and assistants at Weinstein’s companies, and a wide web of managers, journalists, and business partners all incentivized to look the other way. Can the repercussions of Weinstein’s fall break up these kinds of networks, or is this just the way of doing business in Hollywood?This is the way of doing business not just in Hollywood but at every workplace where sexual harassment (and worse) is committed, tolerated, and covered up, from Congress to Fox News to NBC to The New Republic. The Times piece is a must-read, depressing as it is, because of its granular reporting of how sexual predators with power so easily enlist their own colleagues to enable their behavior, even when it rises to the level of the criminal. And not just colleagues, but prominent politicians (the Clintons), attorneys (David Boies), and corporate entities like C.A.A. and Disney. This is a story that is only just beginning to unravel, and until these kinds of networks are fully exposed, change will be incremental at best.

As I have written before, we still don’t know how NBC management can purport to have been ignorant of Matt Lauer’s behavior when it was clearly an open secret in its corporate ranks (and beyond). There has been no independent investigation of what went on — a step that even Fox News finally took to learn more about the sexual predation of Roger Ailes and Bill O’Reilly. Nor has NBC explained satisfactorily why it passed on airing the Trump Access Hollywood tape or Ronan Farrow’s findings about Weinstein; nor has it explained why it won’t lean on the producer Mark Burnett to release Apprentice outtakes that may contain additional evidence of the serial sexual assaults already confessed to by the man who is now president. What we do know — courtesy of ThinkProgress this week — is that NBC-Universal and its parent company, Comcast, have contributed at least $100,000 to the RNC so far for the 2017–18 election cycle, money that is now helping elect Roy Moore.

NBC is hardly alone. Congress owes us an accounting of every taxpayer-funded settlement in sexual-harassment cases beyond the two that have now surfaced (the Texas Republican congressman Blake Farenthold as well as Conyers). It doesn’t pass the smell test that no one in management at House of Cards knew about Kevin Spacey’s behavior. ABC News has remained silent on how its management somehow missed all the signs about Mark Halperin while he was in its employ.

Looking at the larger culture, we can see that this reckoning has only just begun and will take a long time. Imagine the harassment that is tolerated and covered up at less elite workplaces where the predators are not celebrities and the victims are working women or men, many of them minorities, with even less power than the victims at a Fox News or Miramax or NBC.

Donald Trump formally recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital yesterday, upending nearly 70 years of U.S. policy. Critics of the decision include the Pope, some of the most powerful U.S. allies, and, reportedly, Rex Tillerson and James Mattis. What does Trump gain here?

Trump’s most incendiary presidential actions are generally prompted by one or all of three underlying motives: (1) to pander to the one third of the country that is his unfailingly loyal base; (2) to distract from the Mueller investigation and all its attendant story lines; (3) to enable the kleptocratic enrichment of himself, his family, and Trump business enterprises. At the very least (1) and (2) are at work here.

As reporting on the decision has made clear, a major component of the Trump base, the Evangelical right, led by its in-house representative Mike Pence, was the driver here. Evangelical Christians want to ensure that Jews remain in power in Jerusalem as a step toward the Second Coming. They see the provocative move of the American embassy as furthering that goal (which may prove to be far from the case). It tells you all you need to know about these lovely people that they clamor for an American embassy in Jerusalem, but back at home remain silent when Trump calls the alt-right stormtroopers of Charlottesville “very fine people” after they’ve chanted that “Jews will not replace us.”

Of course the announcement of the embassy move would fall on the day that Donald Trump Jr. was stonewalling investigators behind closed doors at the House Intelligence Committee. By coincidence, the Jerusalem announcement also served as a convenient distraction from the burning of Los Angeles, yet another example of the apocalyptic price America will pay for the Trump administration and GOP’s refusal to recognize or battle climate change.

Much was made by Republicans, not without reason, when Bill Clinton went on television to announce the American bombing of Sudan and Afghanistan at the height of the Lewinsky scandal. But how puny that Wag the Dog moment looks now when we have a president who thinks nothing of engulfing the world in war and environmental calamity to save himself from potential legal culpability on multiple fronts, from obstruction of justice and collusion with Russia to sexual assault.

Six Rules for Eating Dim Sum Like a Pro - Bloomberg

Six Rules for Eating Dim Sum Like a Pro

A top chef in Hong Kong tells all.

By Alex Millson

December 7, 2017, 8:00 AM GMT+11

The Dos and Don'ts of Dim Sum

The Dos and Don'ts of Dim Sum

A New Yorker going to Hong Kong for an authentic dim sum experience may walk away a little deflated: Largely gone are the traditional carts, loaded with delicately flavored bite-size dishes, that diners flag down as they pass by in many U.S. eateries. In the home of the cuisine, they’ve largely been relegated to history and replaced with à la carte menus.

What you’re guaranteed to see in both cities, however, are such traditional dishes as steamed buns stuffed with sticky-sweet pork, xiao long bao dumplings filled with scalding soup, and chewy chicken feet that will test the carnivorous mettle of the more timid meat-eaters. Sweet sits alongside savory, often in the same bite-size dish, washed down with plenty of jasmine tea.

Chef Chan Yan TakPhotographer: Paul Yeung/Bloomberg

The methods of presentation are changing, but the rules governing how you eat dim sum remain the same everywhere. We asked the world’s first Chinese cook to earn three Michelin Stars, Executive Chef Chan Yan Tak of Hong Kong’s Lung King Heen restaurant at the Four Seasons on what to do—and more importantly, what to avoid.

Nibble, don’t gobble

“It’s better to take small bites rather than eat a whole piece of dim sum in one gulp. The flavors are enjoyed more when consumed slowly. With xiao long bao [delicate pork dumplings filled with a piping-hot broth], pick them up just a bit below the very tip, where the dumpling skin folds together. It's best to take small bites and let the dumpling cool a bit between bites. Foreigners will often eat them in one bite and burn their mouths that way. The soup can be really hot.”

Go easy on the soy sauce

“Most kitchens prepare their dim sum seasoned, so you shouldn’t need extra, but it depends on how you like your food. Some like it saltier or spicier. Otherwise, dim sum should be well-seasoned on their own. I prefer to go light. I guess foreigners prefer stronger flavors. What they consider to be well-seasoned probably would be too salty or rich for our tastes. And what we like they probably think is too bland. The same goes for sweets. Some of our customers prefer their desserts to have less sugar.”

Xiao long bao. Photographer: Paul Yeung/Bloomberg

The spoon can be used for more than broth

“It’s best to use your spoon to give better support—lay the bone on the spoon and maneuver with your chopsticks. Bite off the meatier parts first and eat your way around the bone. Afterward, you can dispose of the bone on your plate. Fine dining restaurants will help you change plates after each course. If you dine in a dai pai dong [a traditional Hong Kong food stall], there’s really no etiquette. You can use your hands to eat and place the bone directly on the tablecloth. Just enjoy the food.”

Keep your chopsticks to yourself

“Don’t serve others with your chopsticks. It’s just as simple as this—some people might not want to share your saliva. You can always ask for another set for passing food to others. And don't play with your chopsticks—don't tap your teeth or poke inside your mouth with them. It’s fine to ask for a fork. Even some of the younger kitchen hands we have here can’t use chopsticks properly. We sometimes half-joke that we’ll need to test our new hires’ chopsticks skills.”

How you handle your chopsticks matters when having dim sumPhotographer: Paul Yeung/Bloomberg

Learn the secret codes

“When you want to say thank you, tap your index finger and your middle finger together on the table twice. That represents a bow. And if you run out of tea or hot water for your table, move the teapot lid aside and the waiter will come and give you a refill.”

Don’t over order. You can keep going back for more

“There’s no recommendation for how much you should order, just order as many dishes as it takes to satisfy you and keep ordering until you’re full. And don’t ask for a doggy bag. It makes a big difference when you steam dim sum for one minute more or one minute less. You should eat them hot. Their flavors will totally change if you warm them by microwave at home.”

— With assistance by Fion Li

North Korea won't start a war - Trump shouldn't launch an attack - Fox News

NORTH KOREA just in

North Korea won't start a war - Trump shouldn't launch an attack

Douglas Macgregor By Douglas Macgregor | Fox News

Facebook

US emerging as the leader in taking on the North Korea threat?

Hoover Institution Research Fellow Kiron Skinner on efforts to stop the mounting threat from North Korea.

Listen to the mainstream media and President Trump’s national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, and you would conclude that war on the Korean Peninsula is imminent, right?

You’d be wrong. The only way a war breaks out in Northeast Asia is if Washington starts it. Let me tell you why.

The 50-year war between North Korea and its neighbor South Korea is over. North Korea lost. Dictator Kim Jong Un now presides over a dying society in the North – a prison camp full of about 25 million miserable, starving people masquerading as a country. North Korea lags in economic terms somewhere behind Ethiopia.

In contrast, South Korea is an economic juggernaut; a nation of roughly 51 million with an economy larger than that of Russia, which has a population of about 144 million. In terms of per capita gross domestic product, South Korea ranks 31st in the world, while Russia ranks 68th and North Korea ranks nowhere.

Kim’s armed forces mirror his society’s tragic condition. They are an aging tribute to the Soviet forces of the 1970s. Any attempt to employ them against South Korea’s modern armed forces would end in devastating defeat for North Korea.

Kim also knows that missile attacks launched from his soil against the South Korea, Japan or the United States would result in the immediate and total destruction of his Stalinist regime.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has told Kim in very clear terms that if Kim launches an attack on his neighbors or the United States, he is on his own. The Chinese armed forces will stand by and watch as Kim’s regime is systematically annihilated.

To reiterate, the only way war breaks out in Northeast Asia is if the United States starts it. And this insight explains Kim’s strategy. His best chance of survival is to goad President Trump into attacking him. Then Beijing – despite the Chinese distaste for their North Korean neighbor – will be obligated to intervene to defend Kim’s regime.

With this point in mind, Kim has turned to Moscow, not Beijing, for help. Moscow sees Washington’s renewed interest in bringing down Kim as an opportunity. From Moscow’s perspective, North Korea is useful insofar as it can be leveraged in a high-stakes game to bring Washington into conflict with not only North Korea, but more importantly with China.

While China will not support North Korea in a war unleashed by the Kim regime, Beijing has said the Chinese Armed Forces will assist Kim if Washington attacks North Korea.

To promote conflict with China – something President Trump made less likely with his wise diplomacy toward China – Moscow is willing to provide just enough technical assistance to create the illusion of capability in North Korea.

The North’s recent missile launch is a case in point. The liquid-fueled rocket that North Korea launched into space recently lacked precision guidance, as well as a viable warhead. And, like its predecessors, the rocket broke up on reentry and crashed in pieces into the sea.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in summed up the 50-minute rocket test by saying it was not clear “whether the communist nation has in fact built nuclear weapons, let alone perfected its missile technology.”

For Washington, the right course of action is obvious. Don’t take the bait. As former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates warned some time ago: "Any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should have his head examined.”

The sole beneficiary of a conflict between the United States and China is Russia.

Like Serbia in 1914, North Korea is unpopular with virtually every nation in the world, including China. On the eve of World War I, the Guardian newspaper noted sarcastically that “if it were physically possible for Serbia to be towed out to sea and sunk there, the air of Europe would at once seem cleaner.” Most of the world would readily apply this description to North Korea

Of course, in 1914 not a single European statesman regarded Serbia as a country so important that every major power in Europe – and eventually the world – would go to war over its future. Yet, thanks to Russia’s decision to mobilize its armies and back Serbia, that’s exactly what happened.

My advice to President Trump is simple: Mr. President, Moscow is inciting Rocket Man. Don’t take the bait.