Top Posts on TIME Business: Donald Trump’s Pledge to Withdraw U.S. From TPP Opens the Door for China - TIME

Top Posts on TIME Business: Donald Trump’s Pledge to Withdraw U.S. From TPP Opens the Door for China

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Top Posts on TIME Business: Donald Trump’s Pledge to Withdraw U.S. From TPP Opens the Door for China

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Donald Trump’s Pledge to Withdraw U.S. From TPP Opens the Door for China Posted: 22 Nov 2016 12:38 AM PST As a former reality-TV star who sent more than 7,000 tweets over his campaign, it was somewhat fitting that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump took to social media Monday to outline the plan for his Administration’s first 100 days. And there was clear showmanship to his pledge, made during that 2.5-minute YouTube video, to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free-trade deal on his “first day” in office — remarks that provoked consternation among economists while presenting opportunities to rival superpower China. The TPP, which was signed in 2015 between a dozen countries that comprise 40% of the global economy but has yet to be ratified, was “a potential disaster for our country,” said Trump, adding that he would instead “negotiate fair bilateral trade deals that bring jobs and industry onto American shores.” Read More: How Donald Trump Could Remake Global Trade With a Pen Trump’s remarks will be especially disappointing for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who last week become the first foreign leader to sit down with the President-elect during a 90-minute meeting in New York City. Just hours before Trump’s YouTube clip Abe warned that TPP would be “meaningless” without the U.S. Economists were also downbeat about Trump’s announcement. Simon Rabinovitch, Asia economics editor at the Economist, told the BBC that “though Trump has called it a horrible deal, [TPP] was actually very good for the U.S.” Deborah Elms, executive director at the Asian Trade Center, said the decision was “very depressing news” and “means the end of U.S. leadership on trade and the passing of the baton to Asia.” That baton would be gleefully received by China, which was never a TPP signatory. Beijing instead advocates the rival Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade pact, which includes Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan and 12 other Asian countries — but not the U.S. Read More: Donald Trump Outlines Policy Plans for First 100 Days in Office While RCEP is essentially an extension of free trade under existing parameters, TPP included a raft of regulations that stood to bolster U.S. competitiveness. Proponents of the deal claimed it would enhance labor rights, install minimum wages, put state-owned enterprises and foreign and domestic private companies on an even keel, allow the free transfer of information and safeguard intellectual property rights. “TPP [would be] a good thing in the long run because it sets high standards for international trade and investment,” says Professor Larry Qiu of Hong Kong University’s School of Economics and Finance. He adds that what the world needs is not “more trade and investment … but higher-quality and better-ordered trade and investment.” The risk is that protectionist policies under Trump will allow China to supplant the U.S. as a key market, given the overall trend of ascendant Asian economies is for more free trade rather than less. Read More: Donald Trump Details Plan to Rewrite Global Trade Rules That said, economists in China were more confident than their peers elsewhere. “Trump’s isolationism is a challenge and opportunity for China and Chinese companies,” says Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher for the Institute for International Economics Research at China’s National Development and Reform Commission. “Maybe under the new economic polices issued by Trump, more Chinese companies will enter American market.” Certainly, the end of TPP sounds the death knell for outgoing President Barack Obama’s “pivot” or “rebalancing” to Asia. TPP was to be the economic element to a strategy to counter China’s rise through enhanced military, political and economic cooperation with regional allies. Speaking at a meeting of the APEC bloc in Lima, Peru, on Sunday, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the need “to continue our involvement in economic globalization … bringing about an Asia-Pacific economy with greater openness.” Read More: Donald Trump’s Victory Is Some of the Best Foreign News China Could Have Hoped For But the question remains over how far Trump’s protectionism goes, with the Republican’s stump pledge to impose 45% trade tariffs on Chinese goods raising the potential of U.S. trade wars with the world’s second largest economy. Zhang says that the 45% tariff is unlikely because the U.S. has a trade surplus with so many countries. “If Trump charges 45% on Chinese goods, what about the tariff for European countries, for Russia, and for Japan?” asks Zhang. “I don’t think Trump would do it. [And] of course, China would fight back. The world would be in chaos.” — With reporting by Yang Siqi / Beijing

The Oil Industry Is Urging Donald Trump to Approve the Dakota Access Pipeline - TIME Business

The Oil Industry Is Urging Donald Trump to Approve the Dakota Access Pipeline Posted: 06 Dec 2016 12:41 AM PST (BISMARCK, N.D.) — Industry leaders are urging President-elect Donald Trump to make approval of the disputed Dakota Access oil pipeline a priority when he takes office next month, but a spokesman for Trump isn’t offering many clues about how the incoming president might act. Meanwhile, the leader of the Standing Rock Sioux is calling on pipeline opponents to leave a camp in southern North Dakota where they’ve been protesting for months, as dangerous winter weather sets in. Many are vowing to stay, however. Here’s a guide to the latest developments and key background about the protest: The Trump factor Two industry groups are calling on Trump to pave the way for the pipeline’s completion when he enters the White House in January. The requests come after the Army declined to issue a permit for the $3.8 billion pipeline to cross under a Missouri River reservoir in southern North Dakota near the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation. The American Petroleum Institute represents the U.S. oil and natural gas industry, and the MAIN Coalition is made up of agriculture, business and labor entities that benefit from Midwest infrastructure projects. Trump supports construction of the pipeline, spokesman Jason Miller told the Associated Press on Monday, but Miller wouldn’t say whether Trump would reverse the Army’s decision. Miller said the Trump administration will review the situation “and make the appropriate determination.” Trump holds stock in Energy Transfer Partners. Pipeline opponents worry that Trump’s investments could affect any decision he makes on the project as president. Easement denial The Army on Sunday said it would not approve an easement for a pipeline crossing beneath Lake Oahe, a Missouri River reservoir and the source of drinking water for the nearby Standing Rock Reservation. The Standing Rock tribe says the pipeline threatens its water and cultural sites. Assistant Army Secretary for Civil Works Jo-Ellen Darcy said her decision was based on the need to consider alternative routes. Dallas-based pipeline developer Energy Transfer Partners said the decision is politically motivated and that President Barack Obama’s administration is just delaying the matter until he leaves office. Protesters, who describe themselves as “water protectors,” say they have no plans to leave despite the Army’s decision and recent wintry storms. Standing Rock Chairman Dave Archambault said Monday that he doesn’t think there will be any developments for months and that people should go home. The origins Energy Transfer Partners got federal permits for the pipeline in July, about two years after it was announced. The pipeline is projected to move a half-million barrels of crude oil daily to an existing pipeline in Patoka, Illinois, for shipment to Midwest and Gulf Coast markets. Supporters say the pipeline will have safeguards against leaks, and is a safer way to move oil than trucks and trains, especially after a handful of fiery — and sometimes deadly — derailments of trains carrying North Dakota crude. The Standing Rock Sioux, whose reservation straddles the North Dakota-South Dakota border, have challenged the Army Corps of Engineers’ decision to grant permits at more than 200 water crossings. A federal judge in September denied the tribe’s request to block construction of the entire pipeline. Missing link The pipeline is largely complete except for the section under Lake Oahe, about a mile upstream of the reservation. The tribe argues putting the pipeline there could affect drinking water for more than 8,000 tribal members and millions downstream. The Corps of Engineers granted Energy Transfer Partners the permits needed for the crossing in July, but the federal government decided in September that further analysis was warranted given the tribe’s concerns. Then came Sunday’s decision from the Army, which oversees the Corps. The company responded by asking U.S. District Judge James Boasberg to declare that it has the right to lay pipe under Lake Oahe. The judge isn’t likely to issue a decision until January at the earliest. Obama raised the possibility of rerouting the pipeline in early November, and Archambault has said that would be acceptable to the tribe provided the new route isn’t near the reservation and doesn’t cross the Missouri River. But Energy Transfer Partners CEO Kelcy Warren told The Associated Press that that the pipeline won’t be rerouted and the company has no alternative than to stick to its plan.