Thursday, January 30, 2014

How Twitter Knows When You’re Depressed

How Twitter Knows When You’re Depressed


http://business.time.com/2014/01/27/how-twitter-knows-when-youre-depressed/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29

Scientists can now accurately predict if you have the blues—just by looking at your Twitter feed
FRANCE-TECHNOLOGY-BLOGGING-TWITTER-FEATURE
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With its 230 million regular users, Twitter has become such a broad stream of personal expression that researchers are beginning to use it as a tool to dig into public health problems. Believe it or not, a scientist out there might actually care about the sandwich you ate for lunch—even if most of your followers don’t.
“Our attitude is that Twitter is the largest observational study of human behavior we’ve ever known, and we’re working very hard to take advantage of it,” explains Tyler McCormick of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences at the University of Washington.
What if, for example, an artificial intelligence model could scan your Twitter feed and tell you if you’re at risk for depression? And what if you could receive notices from third parties, for instance, that warned you that you may want to seek help, just based on an automated scan of your tweets? Eric Horvitz, co-director of Microsoft Research Redmond has helped pioneer research on Twitter and depression. He says that could one day be a possibility.
“We wondered if we could actually build measures that might be able to detect if someone is severely depressed, just in publicly posted media. What are people telling the world in public spaces?” asks Horvitz. “You might imagine tools that could make people aware of a swing in mood, even before they can feel it themselves.”
Horvitz and a team of researchers helped develop a model that can scan tweets and predict depression in Twitter users, with an accuracy they claim to be 70%. Researchers say the system is still far from perfect. When the model scans your tweets, it misses some signals and doesn’t diagnose many people—about 30%—who really will get depression. And the system has a “false positive” issue, Horvitz said, causing it to incorrectly predict that healthy Twitter users will get depression in about 10% of cases.
The Microsoft team found 476 Twitter users, 171 of whom were seriously depressed. They went back into users’ Twitter histories as far as a year in advance of their depression diagnosis, examining their tweets for language, level of engagement, mentions of certain medications, and other factors, using computer models to sift through a total of 2.2 million tweets. By comparing depressed Twitter users’ feeds with the non-depressed user sample class, they came up with a method for predicting depression diagnoses before they happened. When they tested the model on a different set of Twitter users, it showed 70% accuracy in predicting depression before its onset.
Some tweets the scientists looked at in the depressed group pretty obviously indicate some level of emotional distress. For example, the study cited tweets like these from their depressed user group:
“Having a job again makes me happy. Less time to be depressed and eat all day while watching sad movies.”
“I want someone to hold me and be there for me when I’m sad.”
“‘Are you okay?’ Yes… I understand that I am upset and hopeless and nothing can help me… I’m okay… but I am not all right.”
Not all users’ feeds are so clear. Microsoft’s researchers looked at factors like the number of tweets users made per day, what time of day users tweeted, how often users interacted with each other, and what kind of language tweeters were using. For example, seemingly depressed tweeters were more likely to post messages late at night (between 9pm and 6am) compared with healthy tweeters, who were most active during the day and after work hours.
The team also noticed that certain isolated words in Twitter posts also were characteristic of depression. Words like anxiety, severe, appetite, suicidal, nausea, drowsiness, fatigue, nervousness, addictive, attacks, episodes, and sleep were used by depressed users, but more surprisingly, words like she, him, girl, game, men, home, fun, house, favorite, wants, tolerance, cope, amazing, love, care, songs, and movie could be indications of depression as well.
The volume of tweets mattered too, as did the percentage of exchanges—users who are depressed begin to tweet less, and tweet less at other people, indicating a possible loss of social connectedness, said Horvitz. Of course, just because a Twitter user makes a post that includes the word fatigue and house at 4am, that doesn’t mean they’re depressed. The Microsoft team’s classifier looked at users’ feeds over long periods of time and incorporated many factors. A second Microsoft study that focused more on broader populations using slightly different methods achieved similar results, determining depression in tweets with around 70% accuracy.
One area of public health where this kind of research could come in handy is in measuring public reactions to events. Tracking public Twitter feeds after profound or traumatic events could help scientists understand how we’re affected by the news. “We really didn’t used to have many tools available traditionally for that kind of fine-grained analysis,” says said Horvitz. “Now there’s a new direction for doing the science.”
McCormick, of the University of Washington, said part of the research he and his team is now doing will involve improving earlier Twitter depression models, by weeding out false or misleading data and figuring out areas where depression-related data is being underreported. His team has also identified a group of first-year students at a number of colleges across the country based on their Twitter feeds—hashtags, posts relating to orientation—and is following them for “red flags” that could indicate emotional issues.
A study by University of California San Diego will also build on that research. Funded by the federal government’s National Institute of Health, UCSD’s Michael Conway is creating models that will eventually track depression in communities and figure out how to apply mental health resources better assess public health. “The ultimate goal of this work is to provide a cost-effective, real-time means of monitoring the prevalence of depression in the general population,” Conway said in an email.
In a post-Snowden era, privacy is a major concern facing any kind of mass-data collection. The Twitter users in the Microsoft study permitted Horvitz and his team to examine their tweets, but a possible future in which computer programs  automatically sift through your tweets to make judgments on your health could understandably set off alarms with big data skeptics.
Conway’s team is looking at some of the tough ethical questions involved, by “investigating public attitudes towards the ethics of using social media for public health monitoring,” he says. “This ethical component of the work is particularly important given the evolving role of social media in society and concerns regarding the activities of the NSA.”
It may be some time before the research is developed enough for Twitter to warn individuals at risk for depression to seek help. Horvitz says part of what’s driven his research is the staggering number of suicides in the United States every year due to depression: 30,000. “If we can even save through interventions a few of those 30,000 people each year, it will make this research well worth it,” he said.


Read more: How Twitter Knows When You’re Depressed | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2014/01/27/how-twitter-knows-when-youre-depressed/#ixzz2rshnTjWF

4 Reasons People Are Starting to Panic About Apple - TIME

4 Reasons People Are Starting to Panic About Apple

http://business.time.com/2014/01/28/apple-growth-fears/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29

Increasing competition and concerns over innovation are hurting Apple's stock price
The Apple logo is pictured at its flagship retail store in San Francisco
Robert Galbraith / REUTERS
The Apple logo is pictured at its flagship retail store in San Francisco, California January 27, 2014.
As the world’s most celebrated technology company, Apple is accustomed to lofty expectations. For years, it consistently exceeded them by introducing one breakthrough product after another. But lately, Apple has occasionally struggled to meet the expectations of Wall Street analysts and some investors. That was evident Monday as Apple reported quarterly earnings that disappointed, sending the company’s stock price tumbling. Slowing growth, increasing competition, and nagging fears over innovation have hung around the company’s neck for months.
Investor concern is being driven by four factors. First, Apple’s growth rate is declining, a fact that company CEO Tim Cook acknowledged last year. Last quarter, Apple reported sales of $57.6 billion, a 5.7% increase from one year ago. But as recently as January 2012, Apple’s sales were skyrocketing by more than 70%. What’s driving the company’s decreasing growth rate? For one thing, sales of the company’s flagship iPhone device are decelerating. Last quarter, Apple sold 51 million iPhones, well below Wall Street expectations of 55 million units. And in North America, iPhone sales actually decreased in 2013, Cook said on a post-report earnings call.
Second, Apple faces intensifying competition in the global smart phone space from Samsung, Huawei, LG and Lenovo, which have brought cheaper models to market, many powered by Google‘s Android operating system. Last year, the iPhone lost a significant percentage of its global market share, according to two new studies released Monday. In 2013, the iPhone accounted for 15.5% of the market, down from 19.4% in 2012, according to research firm Strategy Analytics. Meanwhile, Samsung’s market share increased from 30.4% to 32.3%. Huawei, LG and Lenovo also enjoyed market share gains.
“Apple remains strong in the high-end smartphone segment, but a lack of presence in the low-end category is costing it lost volumes in fast-growing emerging markets such as India,” analysts at Strategy Analytics wrote in their report. For now, Cook is standing firm. “Our objective has always been to make the best, not the most,” he said. “We’re willing to make any product that’s a great product. Where our line in the sand is, it’s making something that’s not fantastic.”
Third, Apple’s financial forecast disappointed Wall Street. For the current quarter, Apple projected revenue between $42 billion and $44 billion, below Wall Street expectations of $46 billion. In fact, if sales do not exceed $43.6 billion, that would amount to Apple’s first quarterly revenue decline since 2003. Again, remember that Apple’s revenue was growing by more than 70% as recently as two years ago.
This trend affects profit as well as revenue. Apple said that last quarter the company earned profit of $13.1 billion, unchanged from 12 months ago. Late last year, Apple reported its first profit decline in a decade. Apple’s disappointing sales outlook has raised fears that the company’s highly touted deal with China Mobile may not deliver the sales boost that Wall Street had hoped for.
China presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and challenge for Apple. China Mobile is the world’s largest wireless carrier with 760 million subscribers. To put that in perspective, that’s more than three times the number of U.S. users who subscribe to mobile services offered by AT&T and Verizon Wireless — combined. But early reports suggest that initial iPhone sales in China have been disappointing. Still, there’s reason for hope. It’s worth noting that Apple is currently only selling the iPhone on China Mobile in 16 cities. That’s expected to grow to 300 cities by the end of the year, according to the company.
Fourth, Apple’s relatively tepid earnings report has once again stoked concern about the company’s ability to deliver category-busting new products. Fears over the state of Apple’s famous innovation machine have been mounting steadily since the death of Apple co-founder Steve Jobs in October 2011. This is a highly controversial topic, because Apple has made impressive improvements to its existing product lines, and the iPhone and iPad are considered the gold-standard in their respective categories.
But the fact remains that Apple hasn’t launched an entirely new product since the 2010 debut of the iPad. On the conference call, Cook tried to reassure investors, hinting that new products could appear by the end of 2014, though he wouldn’t offer specifics. “Innovation is deeply embedded in everybody here,” Cook said. “We have zero issue coming up with things we want to do that we think we can disrupt in a major way. The challenge is always to focus on the very few that deserve all of our energy.”
There is a growing consensus on Wall Street that the company needs new products—like the oft-rumored iWatch wearable device or a new TV product—in order to jumpstart the company’s growth. Cook hinted that the company is looking at a mobile payments system that might allow people to make purchases on their Apple devices. “What we have gotten over the last year or so is impressive products, but they are really enhancements of current products and not necessarily the next new thing,” Jack Ablin, chief investment officer with BMO Private Bank, told Bloomberg. “Apple investors want the next new thing—that’s the catalyst that people are waiting for.”
It’s important to point out that as an absolute matter, Apple continues to post the kind of numbers that should be the envy of the technology world. The sheer scale of Apple’s business is staggering. The company’s market value is nearly half-a-trillion dollars, and it’s sitting on $145 billion in cash. From a technology and design perspective, the iPhone and the iPad remain the industry’s most celebrated devices. Cook is one of the most respected chief executives in corporate America. And, as a turn-around story, there simply never has been nor likely ever will be something like it. But as long as Apple continues to make incremental improvements to existing devices rather than release entirely new products, growth fears will persist. One blockbuster launch could change all that, and 2014 might be the year it happens.


Read more: 4 Reasons People Are Starting to Panic About Apple | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2014/01/28/apple-growth-fears/#ixzz2rsgmhtAp

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

4 Businesses Making a Killing on the Polar Vortex - TIME

4 Businesses Making a Killing on the Polar Vortex

Read more: Businesses That Boom During Cold Weather | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2014/01/29/businesses-that-boom-during-cold-weather/#ixzz2rnrjF74x


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Getty Images / Getty Images
Snow Plow Working
Cold weather isn’t great for the economy, as cancelled plane trips and snowed-in commuters causes billions of dollars in losses to businesses across the country. But not every company fears heavy snowfall and subzero temperatures. Some obvious businesses applauding the cold weather include ski resorts, snow removal and makers of cold weather clothing, but here are four types of businesses that are loving it:
1. Salt producers: Many of us know names like Morton Salt from our kitchen tables, but in fact 41% of salt sales in the U.S. go toward highway de-icing. And the cold weather and snow means business is booming. “We’re seeing demand for de-icing salt that’s simply unprecedented in recent memory,” salt-producing Cargill Inc. spokesman Mark Klein recently told The Wall Street Journal. 
2. Ice fishing: While the densely populated coasts of America may get their fish from nearby oceans, the midwest is all about ice fishing. $260 million worth of ice fishing gear was sold in 2012, according to the American Sportfishing Association, an 11 percent jump from the prior year. In places like Minnesota, the practice is evolving from a niche means of survival to a full-blown past time, a trend only boosted by recent cold snaps. According to the Minnesota Star Tribune, sporting goods companies are now selling high-tech “fish houses” that keep anglers warm out on the lake, and can run upwards of $30,000.
3. Natural gas: Natural gas prices have reached historic lows in recent years as the fracking boom has flooded the U.S. market with supply. But a cold snap, especially in the northeast, has allowed energy companies to charge sky-high prices for those wishing to heat their homes. Bloomberg’s Matthew Phillips writes in a recent post:
” On Jan. 22, thermostats in New York City bottomed out at 7 degrees, a day after the price to deliver natural gas into the city spiked to a record $120 per million British Thermal Units in the spot market on the outskirts of town. That’s about 30 times more expensive than what the equivalent amount of gas cost a hundred miles away in Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale, the biggest natural gas field in the U.S. and home to some of the lowest gas prices in the world.”
4. Plumbers: Cold temperatures mean busted pipes, a goldmine for plumbers. Max Hofmeyer, an Ohio-based plumber told Cincinatti.com that his business went from fielding 125 calls per week to more than 100 per day since the deep freeze set in, due to pipes bursting in the cold.“We’ve been bombarded by people mainly with frozen pipes,” Hofmeyer said. “People are literally crying over the phone.”


Read more: Businesses That Boom During Cold Weather | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2014/01/29/businesses-that-boom-during-cold-weather/#ixzz2rnrzsC84

Is China About To Plunge Into Financial Crisis? - TIME

Is China About To Plunge Into Financial Crisis?

Read more: Is China About To Plunge Into Financial Crisis? | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2014/01/28/is-china-about-to-plunge-into-financial-crisis/#ixzz2rnqUGhLW


China money
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Is China about to have its own Bear Stearns moment? I have been thinking a lot about this after reading a smart report released today by BofA Merrill Lynch Chinese economist Bin Gao, which looks at the recent debt restructuring at the China Credit Trust Co., a major Chinese financial institution. Just a few days ago, the Beijing based company was in danger of defaulting on a high risk, complex debt product. Then, suddenly, it managed to get its hands on enough money to restructure the half a billion-dollar deal and prevent the debt from going bad. Nobody knows who the investor was—the central government? a state owned bank? a worried Chinese billionaire? As if that wasn’t bad enough, the secret bailout comes at a time when intra-bank lending rates in China are rising (which means banks don’t trust each other), market volatility is increasing, and the value of risky debt products is plunging.
Sound familiar? That’s exactly what happened in the run up to the 2008 collapse of Bear Stearns in the U.S. Indeed, says Gao, “the bailout looks very much like the Bear Stearns moment.” The CCT problem isn’t the only red flag out there–over the last few months, there have been a number of investment projects that have gone bad in China, including debt issued by a coal mining company, and a provincial government real estate project. The risk of infrastructure projects going wrong and creating a domino effect of exploding debt, just as the subprime mortgage crisis did in the U.S., is something that TIME warned about over two years ago, in a cover story by Ken Miller entitled The China Bubble.
Are we at that moment now? Economic secrecy in China means it’s impossible to know for sure, but Ruchir Sharma’s column in the Financial Times today makes it clear that he thinks the Middle Kingdom is already in trouble. I’ve talked many times with Sharma, who heads up global macroeconomics for Morgan Stanley about the issues in China, and his metrics tell it best. The most reliable indicator of financial crisis is the pace of growth in debt (not the size, but the pace). Over the last five years, debt levels in China have increased by 71 percentage points. Looking back over the past 50 years, there are about 33 cases of countries with similar debt run-ups—22 of them plunged into a credit crisis, and all suffered a major economic slowdown. Needless to say, I’ll be watching this space very carefully.


Read more: Is China About To Plunge Into Financial Crisis? | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2014/01/28/is-china-about-to-plunge-into-financial-crisis/#ixzz2rnqgltRu