How to fund extra years alive
Living longer is a blessing. But how to fund extra years has emerged as a global conundrum, one that will not be solved with the pension systems now in place. Life spans have stretched by more than a decade since 1970, making lifetime income too costly for governments or corporations to guarantee. If trends continue, the number of poor or nearly poor seniors will double to 4.3 million by 2022, according to one study. Here is a peek inside the financial labs where experts are trying to find solutions.
Social Security
This bedrock benefit lifts 15 million seniors in the U.S. out of poverty each year and is the sole source of income for nearly 1 in 4 recipients. It’s not going away. But by 2033, payroll taxes will be enough to pay only 77% of promised benefits. “There is more energy than you might think” for benefit cuts and tax increases that favor those of lesser means, says Jared Bernstein, former economic adviser to Vice President Joe Biden. One possibility is raising or removing the cap on annual earnings subject to Social Security tax ($118,500). There would be pushback against means testing. Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders is among those on board.
Guaranteed retirement accounts
Imagine a new account, above and beyond Social Security, 401(k)s and private pensions. It would be professionally managed, giving savers access to the lowest fees and broadest diversification. Contributions would be required of all workers and taken from your paycheck. The money would be invested conservatively, untouchable through loans or early distributions, and upon retirement paid out as an annuity. “The 401(k) is a failure,” says Teresa Ghilarducci, professor of economics at the New School for Social Research. “We need a universal, mandated retirement-savings system.” She believes that these accounts could be a reality within a few years and that as workers came to value low fees and guaranteed income, these new accounts would either supplant 401(k) plans or force them to compete with lower costs and more guarantees.
401(K) annuities
The 401(k) may have life in it yet. The search is on for ways to seamlessly convert some or all of your 401(k) assets into guaranteed lifetime income without taking a lump sum and paying hefty fees to buy an immediate annuity. Treasury and the IRS recently cleared the way for target-date funds inside a 401(k) to make deferred annuities a default option. “But we are not yet where we need to be,” says Chip Castille, chief retirement strategist at BlackRock, which is pioneering 401(k) annuities. Look for remaining legal and other obstacles to phase out in the next few
Target income
Most investing is about maximizing returns. But an actively managed portfolio that over your entire working life seeks only to generate a reasonable target level of lifetime income upon retirement would hold more stable securities and shield you from what academics call sequence risk–the chance that you’ll suffer a big market hit at the worst time. Australian researcher Michael Drew has demonstrated that two identical savers with the same average annual returns can have vastly different wealth after 40 years–a spread of millions of dollars–just because one took their losses late in life when they had more to lose and little time to recover. Target-income funds “only take the amount of risk needed to reach the target, after which portfolio risk is lowered,” says Drew. Such a fund would naturally be light on stocks when the market is most volatile throughout your career–and have done its job, and be parked in safe securities, as you approach retirement and are most vulnerable.
Phased retirement
As we live longer, we should work longer. But you can start taking retirement-fund distributions before age 60 and collecting Social Security at 62. Normal retirement age, now 65 to 67, has risen much more slowly than life expectancies. Look for lawmakers to raise certain age thresholds, especially on the back end, like when you must start taking minimum distributions (70½) and stop accruing benefits by delaying Social Security (70). As barriers to working longer fall, formal programs that enable seniors to phase into retirement through part-time or less stressful jobs will take root. “There must be widespread resolve among employers and policymakers,” says Catherine Collinson, executive director at Aegon Center for Longevity and Retirement. Three-quarters of seniors want to keep working for reasons having nothing to do with financial concerns, and yet only a quarter say their employer has a program to help them retrain or downshift, the center found.
Saturday, April 30, 2016
Friday, April 29, 2016
Brexit latest briefing - Wall Street Journal
4:02 AM EST APR 29, 2016
The past week has been dominated by the fallout from President Barack Obama’s intervention in the U.K. referendum debate. Mr. Obama stepped in on the side of those arguing for the U.K. to stay in the European Union, arguing the U.K. would go to “the back of the queue” when it came to negotiating a trade agreement with Washington.
More experts weighed in on the economic arguments about exit. With polls showing the economic issue tending to favor the Remain campaign, those urging Brexit were expected to try to switch the debate toward immigration, which polls suggest is a stronger issue for them. Home Secretary Teresa May stepped in to the debate on the side of Remain, saying the U.K. shouldn’t quit the EU but should leave the European Court of Human Rights.
Here, in a nutshell, are the issues that dominated the past week.
* Obama Drama So he did it and came out for Bremain, saying “I don’t believe the EU moderates British influence in the world–it magnifies it.” He elaborated later that being at the back of the queue meant that a U.S.-U.K. trade deal could take as long as a decade to come into force. Some of the subsequent debate focused on whether a U.S. president would really say “queue” and whether that meant his talking points were written in Downing Street. Before Mr. Obama spoke, London Mayor Boris Johnson suggested the president might be, as a part-Kenyan, influenced by his “ancestral dislike of the British empire.” That kicked off a whole storm of its own. Many people for Leave argued that the president had misunderstood the issue, which was about getting back British sovereignty. The leading Democratic presidential contender, Hillary Clinton, backed the president. Republican contender Ted Cruz said the opposite of Mr. Obama, writing in The Times that the U.K. would be at “the front of the queue” for a trade deal. Here’s Simon Nixon’s take.
* May Courts Controversy Home Secretary Theresa May spelled out her reasons for staying in the EU. It was her questioning of British membership of the European Court of Human Rights that drew the most headlines. The ECHR, based in Strasbourg, is not an EU court, and the U.K. is subject to it as a signatory of the European Convention of Human Rights. While many get the two mixed up, the EU’s top court is the European Court of Justice, based in Luxembourg, with which Ms. May has less of a problem. There’s some irony here in the sense that the ECHR (unlike the EU) is a British creation dating back to 1950, born of the pan-European vision of Conservative Party icon Winston Churchill. The speech revived the debate about whether the U.K. could leave the ECHR but not the EU. Here’s Stephen Booth’s fence-sitting response.
* Better Off Out: Economists Most economists who have spoken out on the question say the U.K. is better off in the EU. But this week a group of eight British economistsput their case for leaving, saying growth will be faster outside than inside. The full report is here. Their vision of a faster-growing post-Brexit Britain is one where the country has embraced the free market. The economists depict the EU as a protectionist bloc, and believe exit will allow the U.K. to lower tariffs on imports, making goods cheaper. Money saved from the contribution to the EU budget should be used to cut income taxes. There would be a bonfire of regulations. Could such a vision come to pass? We asked this question a couple of weeks ago.
* Better Off In: Economists The latest organization to say it would be damaging is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Paris-based club of industrialized countries. Its boss Angel Gurria said “Leaving Europe would impose a Brexit tax on generations to come,” saying the losses were already starting. The central scenario had a loss by 2030 of £3,200 a year for every household. Here’s the paper.
* No Easy Way Out In this week’s Brussels Beat, we look at how legally the U.K. might go about leaving the EU. In broad terms, there are two ways: one is hard and the other is a nightmare. Here for the pro-EU Centre for European Reform, Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska drills deeper into the questions that surround Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the clause that most likely would have to be used to negotiate the U.K.’s departure.
The past week has been dominated by the fallout from President Barack Obama’s intervention in the U.K. referendum debate. Mr. Obama stepped in on the side of those arguing for the U.K. to stay in the European Union, arguing the U.K. would go to “the back of the queue” when it came to negotiating a trade agreement with Washington.
More experts weighed in on the economic arguments about exit. With polls showing the economic issue tending to favor the Remain campaign, those urging Brexit were expected to try to switch the debate toward immigration, which polls suggest is a stronger issue for them. Home Secretary Teresa May stepped in to the debate on the side of Remain, saying the U.K. shouldn’t quit the EU but should leave the European Court of Human Rights.
Here, in a nutshell, are the issues that dominated the past week.
* Obama Drama So he did it and came out for Bremain, saying “I don’t believe the EU moderates British influence in the world–it magnifies it.” He elaborated later that being at the back of the queue meant that a U.S.-U.K. trade deal could take as long as a decade to come into force. Some of the subsequent debate focused on whether a U.S. president would really say “queue” and whether that meant his talking points were written in Downing Street. Before Mr. Obama spoke, London Mayor Boris Johnson suggested the president might be, as a part-Kenyan, influenced by his “ancestral dislike of the British empire.” That kicked off a whole storm of its own. Many people for Leave argued that the president had misunderstood the issue, which was about getting back British sovereignty. The leading Democratic presidential contender, Hillary Clinton, backed the president. Republican contender Ted Cruz said the opposite of Mr. Obama, writing in The Times that the U.K. would be at “the front of the queue” for a trade deal. Here’s Simon Nixon’s take.
* May Courts Controversy Home Secretary Theresa May spelled out her reasons for staying in the EU. It was her questioning of British membership of the European Court of Human Rights that drew the most headlines. The ECHR, based in Strasbourg, is not an EU court, and the U.K. is subject to it as a signatory of the European Convention of Human Rights. While many get the two mixed up, the EU’s top court is the European Court of Justice, based in Luxembourg, with which Ms. May has less of a problem. There’s some irony here in the sense that the ECHR (unlike the EU) is a British creation dating back to 1950, born of the pan-European vision of Conservative Party icon Winston Churchill. The speech revived the debate about whether the U.K. could leave the ECHR but not the EU. Here’s Stephen Booth’s fence-sitting response.
* Better Off Out: Economists Most economists who have spoken out on the question say the U.K. is better off in the EU. But this week a group of eight British economistsput their case for leaving, saying growth will be faster outside than inside. The full report is here. Their vision of a faster-growing post-Brexit Britain is one where the country has embraced the free market. The economists depict the EU as a protectionist bloc, and believe exit will allow the U.K. to lower tariffs on imports, making goods cheaper. Money saved from the contribution to the EU budget should be used to cut income taxes. There would be a bonfire of regulations. Could such a vision come to pass? We asked this question a couple of weeks ago.
* Better Off In: Economists The latest organization to say it would be damaging is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Paris-based club of industrialized countries. Its boss Angel Gurria said “Leaving Europe would impose a Brexit tax on generations to come,” saying the losses were already starting. The central scenario had a loss by 2030 of £3,200 a year for every household. Here’s the paper.
* No Easy Way Out In this week’s Brussels Beat, we look at how legally the U.K. might go about leaving the EU. In broad terms, there are two ways: one is hard and the other is a nightmare. Here for the pro-EU Centre for European Reform, Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska drills deeper into the questions that surround Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the clause that most likely would have to be used to negotiate the U.K.’s departure.
Eurozone economy back to pre-crisis level - Financial Times
Eurozone GDP returns to pre-crisis levels
Strong French performance helps single currency area beat growth expectations
The eurozone economy began the year in stronger fashion than expected, as gross domestic product finally surpassed pre-crisis levels and grew by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter, helped by a relatively robust performance by France.
The eurozone figure, released by Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistical arm, showed growth at the fastest rate since the beginning of 2015, as overall economic output reached its highest level, above the first quarter of 2008.
It is also the first time since the beginning of 2011 that growth in the single currency area has outpaced economic expansion in the broader EU and the UK, which recorded growth of 0.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively.
The British government, which is facing an In/Out referendum on EU membership on 23 June, until recently emphasised the UK’s status as the fastest growing economy in the G7.
Analysts had expected growth of about 0.4 per cent in the eurozone — only a slight improvement on the 0.3 per cent figure recorded for the final three months of 2015.
The initial eurozone and wide EU GDP figures do not provide a breakdown of performance by member states.
However, national data from France showed that the region’s second-largest economy fuelled some of the momentum for the improved recovery.
France’s economy grew 0.5 per cent, outstripping economists’ expectations and adding to a recent run of improving fortune for Socialist President François Hollandein the build-up to next year’s elections.
The Spanish economy also beat expectations, growing by 0.8 per cent in the first three months of the year, despite the lack of a government and the prolonged political uncertainty.
The growth rate was the same as in the previous two quarters, defying expectations of a slight weakening of growth this year. Spain’s central bank had predicted growth of 0.7 per cent in the first three months of 2016.
In depth
Eurozone economy
News and analysis of the single currency bloc’s fragile recovery as it attempts to regain competitiveness in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis and its struggles with austerity
Friday’s preliminary figure for France is above the 0.3 per cent growth that the country — the eurozone’s second-biggest economy — recorded during the past three months of 2015. It was boosted by the biggest increase in household spending since 2004, according to Insee, the official statistics bureau.
While the figures will increase confidence in the region’s recovery, difficulties remain — including inflation, which fell in the year to April to minus 0.2 per cent from zero the previous month.
Eurostat said the core measure of inflation, which excludes items with more volatile prices such as food and energy goods, also fell — dipping from 1 per cent in March to 0.8 per cent. Both the headline and core figures were the lowest since February this year.
Unemployment remains in double figures, although it fell from 10.4 per cent in February to 10.2 per cent in March.
Economists welcomed the French growth data, which they said would boost Mr Hollande’s standing. “There is a stronger situation in the labour market and that will create strong momentum this year,” said Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Natixis Asset Management.”
He added: “It’s perfect timing for Hollande.”
The latest data come as Mr Hollande, the least popular president in France’s modern history, according to recent surveys, is trying to claw back support as he and his party prepare for next year’s presidential contest.
This week data showed that French unemployment in March saw the biggest monthly fall in 15 years.
The figure, the sharpest fall since 2000, more than made up for an increase in the jobless numbers in February and brought about the first quarterly fall since well before Mr Hollande took office in 2012.
Strong French performance helps single currency area beat growth expectations
The eurozone economy began the year in stronger fashion than expected, as gross domestic product finally surpassed pre-crisis levels and grew by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter, helped by a relatively robust performance by France.
The eurozone figure, released by Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistical arm, showed growth at the fastest rate since the beginning of 2015, as overall economic output reached its highest level, above the first quarter of 2008.
It is also the first time since the beginning of 2011 that growth in the single currency area has outpaced economic expansion in the broader EU and the UK, which recorded growth of 0.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively.
The British government, which is facing an In/Out referendum on EU membership on 23 June, until recently emphasised the UK’s status as the fastest growing economy in the G7.
Analysts had expected growth of about 0.4 per cent in the eurozone — only a slight improvement on the 0.3 per cent figure recorded for the final three months of 2015.
The initial eurozone and wide EU GDP figures do not provide a breakdown of performance by member states.
However, national data from France showed that the region’s second-largest economy fuelled some of the momentum for the improved recovery.
France’s economy grew 0.5 per cent, outstripping economists’ expectations and adding to a recent run of improving fortune for Socialist President François Hollandein the build-up to next year’s elections.
The Spanish economy also beat expectations, growing by 0.8 per cent in the first three months of the year, despite the lack of a government and the prolonged political uncertainty.
The growth rate was the same as in the previous two quarters, defying expectations of a slight weakening of growth this year. Spain’s central bank had predicted growth of 0.7 per cent in the first three months of 2016.
In depth
Eurozone economy
News and analysis of the single currency bloc’s fragile recovery as it attempts to regain competitiveness in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis and its struggles with austerity
Friday’s preliminary figure for France is above the 0.3 per cent growth that the country — the eurozone’s second-biggest economy — recorded during the past three months of 2015. It was boosted by the biggest increase in household spending since 2004, according to Insee, the official statistics bureau.
While the figures will increase confidence in the region’s recovery, difficulties remain — including inflation, which fell in the year to April to minus 0.2 per cent from zero the previous month.
Eurostat said the core measure of inflation, which excludes items with more volatile prices such as food and energy goods, also fell — dipping from 1 per cent in March to 0.8 per cent. Both the headline and core figures were the lowest since February this year.
Unemployment remains in double figures, although it fell from 10.4 per cent in February to 10.2 per cent in March.
Economists welcomed the French growth data, which they said would boost Mr Hollande’s standing. “There is a stronger situation in the labour market and that will create strong momentum this year,” said Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Natixis Asset Management.”
He added: “It’s perfect timing for Hollande.”
The latest data come as Mr Hollande, the least popular president in France’s modern history, according to recent surveys, is trying to claw back support as he and his party prepare for next year’s presidential contest.
This week data showed that French unemployment in March saw the biggest monthly fall in 15 years.
The figure, the sharpest fall since 2000, more than made up for an increase in the jobless numbers in February and brought about the first quarterly fall since well before Mr Hollande took office in 2012.
Thursday, April 28, 2016
Why Apple Needs To Do Something Huge Soon - TIME
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Posted: 26 Apr 2016 06:32 AM PDT
If Silicon Valley has anything resembling an action hero, it’s Apple.
Between the summer of ’83 and the summer of ’85, the company that many credit with defining personal computing as we understand it today saw its stock fall 76%. That would be a death sentence for most emerging-tech companies. But Apple – like Bond, Bauer, or Bourne – had a few tricks up its sleeve. The Super Bowl Macintosh ad that has since become an icon of iconoclasm, for one.
Sure enough, Apple had its revenge over enemies and doubters alike. The stock surged 881% in the following six years, while the Nasdaq rose a mere 69%.
Every good action hero has his or her inevitable sequel. Apple was no exception. Between 1991 and 1997, Apple lost 80% of its stock value – and this during a time when the Nasdaq Composite came close to tripling. Any Apple fanboy worth his weight in bile knows what happened next: Apple bought NeXT Software, bringing Steve Jobs back into the fold.
Then came the iPod, the iPhone, the iPad and a mere 21,000% increase in Apple’s market cap between 1997 and its peak of $134.54, reached about a year ago. It marked the end of a historic run. And since then, Apple bulls and bears alike have since been wondering: Is this the end of that great run, or just a pause before the next one starts?
The question has haunted Apple for years. Is there life after the iPhone? The iPad’s introduction in 2010, three years after the iPhone, was supposed to be a robust second act. But iPad sales are softening. Meanwhile, the Apple Watch, introduced last year, has yet to find a killer app to drive sales beyond hardcore fans and early adopters.
So where does that leave Apple? In something of a twilight zone. By no means will it tumble the way it did in the 1980s. But there’s no guarantee it will see the surges it has in the past any time soon. Apple’s stock thrives after it has released a product that appeals to the mainstream. That could be the iPhone 7, due out this fall. But it won’t be a new iPad, or an Apple Watch, or the elusive rumors of something more than the existing Apple TV, or even a new Macbook Pro. All of these will add to Apple’s ever growing revenue and profits, but only incrementally so. These are like an action hero recounting old victories: Bond re-defeating Blofeld, say, or Bauer keeping Nina out of the loop.
The analogies between Apple and action films die quickly because one exists in the realm of fantasy and the other in the very unforgiving world of investor expectations. But they also die hard (sorry) because Apple fanboys have fought so passionately for so long for the company’s over-achieving, underdog image. And because Apple in 2016 is, like any action hero worthy of a long life, in need of a new challenge.
Apple has long been an underdog in tech, largely because of its insistence on manufacturing hardware, rather than being mainly software-driven like Facebook or Google. As an underdog, it has long been subject to low valuations. Apple’s stock is valued around 11 times its earnings this year. Google’s stock is valued at twice that, and Facebook’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is nearly three times as high.
But unlike Google or Facebook, which can promise investors steady growth in both revenue and profit, Apple has a cyclical business. That is, its chief product — the iPhone — is released every two years. In the in-between years, Apple can only hope that incremental upgrades as well as sales in overseas markets like China will offset any cyclical lows.
 Apple Revenue
The chart above shows how Apple’s revenue growth slowed dramatically before the iPhone 6 was released. Thanks to the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus, Apple’s revenue grew in established markets as well as emerging ones like China, a happy ending that boosted Apple’s stock to new highs. All Apple needed was the perfect sequel.
And this brings us to the financial drama that has been playing out this quarter. A fifth of Apple’s market cap has been eaten away during the past year. China’s economy is slowing. And reports have emerged in recent weeks that iPhone sales fell in the first quarter of the year. The question is, just how far did they fall?
And more importantly, what is Apple going to do for its next act of growth? It’s not the Apple Watch, which has proven to be a triumph of design over everyday utility. It’s probably not the iPhone, which, with every release, seems less revolutionary and more iterative. And it’s not something radical like a car, which remains years away, if we’ll see it at all.
Apple CEO Tim Cook has hinted there are new products coming. If Apple’s earnings disappoint today, the sooner those new devices come, the better. Nobody begrudges an aging action hero a few gray hairs. It’s when you run out of tricks up your sleeve that the audience turns away.
Right now, Apple’s stock is trading around $105 a share, not far from where it was four year ago. Now is as good a time as any to do something heroic.
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Wednesday, April 27, 2016
China car sale up despite economic slow down - Economist
IF YOU believe that China’s economy is in trouble and that Chinese consumers are clinging tightly to their yuan, a visit to a local automobile dealership may make you think again. China has already roared past America to become the world’s biggest car market. In March sales of passenger cars zoomed again, by nearly 10% year on year. Shiny sport-utility vehicles (SUVs), the hottest items at this week’s biennial Beijing Auto Show (pictured), did even better: sales jumped by 46% in March from a year earlier. The car market is forecast to keep growing briskly for the rest of this decade (see chart, left).
The Chinese consumer is flashing his wallet elsewhere, too. China’s box-office revenues shot up by nearly 50% on a year earlier in 2015, to $6.8 billion. Cinema operators led by Wanda Group, an ambitious local conglomerate that recently bought Hollywood’s Legendary Entertainment, have poured money into expansion; the number of screens across China has been rising at 36% a year since 2011.
Related topics
* Asia
* China
After years of breakneck expansion, the smartphone market is peaking. Some firms still thrive: China’s Huawei, a telecoms giant, predicts that revenues from its consumer-devices division will rise by about 50% this year. But Xiaomi, an innovative electronics firm once seen as China’s answer to Apple, is losing steam. Apple’s own fortunes have dipped since a leap in revenues from greater China last year. As the market for devices matures, consumer spending is shifting to mobile services: data usage has grown at triple-digit rates since 2012.
The unrelenting march of e-commerce continues. In 2010, online shopping accounted for only 3% of total private consumption, but it now makes up 15%. Alibaba, which processes more sales on its ecommerce platforms than eBay and Amazon combined, saw annual Chinese revenues grow to 63 billion yuan ($9.7 billion) in 2015, a rise of nearly 40% compared with a year earlier. JD, its main local rival, saw revenues leap by nearly 58%.
The Chinese still are spending heavily abroad. International tax-free shopping by Chinese shot up 58% last year, according to a new report from Global Blue, a big operator of duty-free shops. Overall, Chinese tourists spent $215 billion on outbound travel last year, a rise of 53% on the previous year. Ctrip, a big online travel firm partly owned by Baidu, a Chinese internet search giant, saw its revenues jump by nearly half last year, to 10.9 billion yuan.
As with cars, screens and travel, so with consumption generally. All retail sales across the economy, adjusted for inflation, rose by 9.6% during the first quarter, compared with the same period a year ago. The services sector, which caters to the growing demands of the middle classes, has been rising by 8% a year in real terms since 2012 (see chart, right). Services made up 57% of economic output in the first quarter; electricity consumption in services rose by some 10%, but was flat for industry.
Not every market is as bouncy as it once was. A cooling economy and an official anti-corruption drive have squeezed luxury goods, sales of which fell by 2% year on year in 2015, to 113 billion yuan. But some firms are doing well. Rémy Cointreau, a premium liquor brand offering tamper-proof bottles on the mainland (they have “near field communications” tags that tell your smartphone if the booze has been diluted) saw global revenues rise nearly 10% last quarter and gave credit to “improving trends in greater China.” According to Bernard Arnault, the boss of LVMH, a French luxury goliath: “Analysts underestimate the Chinese economy…the fundamentals are good. Household spending is still increasing.”
The two Chinas Can consumption remain resilient given the troubles of the country’s state-dominated industrial economy, ranging from vast overcapacity to record levels of debt? One temporary source of comfort is the fact that the state sector may now itself be stabilising, thanks to a massive, debt-fuelled government stimulus. But greater reassurance comes the fact that even a big shakeout in heavy industry would be unlikely to derail the Chinese consumer. By one estimate, if 30% of capacity is slashed across China’s most bloated state industries, perhaps 3m workers will lose their jobs over the next three years. But thanks largely to the private sector, the country created 64m jobs between 2011 and 2015, with more than 13m of them coming in the past year alone.
The dynamism of the mostly-private consumer sector comes not from stimulus, argues Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia, an investment firm, but from strong income growth and low household debt. (Chinese household debt stands at about 40% of GDP, roughly half the level seen in America.) Real urban incomes rose by 5.8% in the first quarter. Willis Towers Watson, a consultancy, estimates that white-collar salaries are now significantly higher in China than in southeast Asia. That fuels a bristling optimism. A recent study by McKinsey, a consultancy, found that 55% of consumers in China are confident that their incomes will rise significantly over the next five years.
Many big firms seem willing to look past current clouds over China’s economy to brighter days ahead. Pepsi, an American snack-food firm, opened its first Quaker Oats manufacturing plant on the mainland in October, and has launched oat-based dairy drinks to cater to local tastes. It even wants to introduce Pepsi-branded smartphones in China. McDonald’s, a huge American hamburger chain, wants 1,250 outlets in the mainland over the next five years on top of the 2,200 it operates already.
America’s Walt Disney, an entertainment colossus, is set to open Shanghai Disneyland, a $5.5 billion theme park that is its biggest investment outside Florida, in June. Keen to experience such novelties as Peking-duck-topped, Mickey-Mouse shaped pizza, Chinese families are now eagerly snapping up entry tickets online. Starbucks, an American coffee chain, plans to add 500 outlets this year in China, including one at the entrance of the new Disney park. Howard Schultz, its boss, predicts it will be “Starbucks’ highest-grossing retail store overnight.”
Firms such as these are betting on the continued rise of the affluent middle class. By 2020, the number of households earning above $24,000 per year is expected to double to 100m, making up 30% of all urban households. They are also betting on free-spending youth. Consumption is rising at 14% a year among under-35s, twice the level of oldies. But above all, they are betting on the law of large numbers. A joint study, by the Boston Consulting Group, another consultancy, and AliResearch, the research arm of Alibaba, predicts that even if economic growth falls to only 5.5% per year (well below official claims of nearly 7% a year now), China’s consumer economy will expand over the next five years by some $2.3 trillion. No matter what the deficiencies in economic forecasts, that incremental gain would be bigger than the entire consumer economy in Britain or Germany today.
The Chinese consumer is flashing his wallet elsewhere, too. China’s box-office revenues shot up by nearly 50% on a year earlier in 2015, to $6.8 billion. Cinema operators led by Wanda Group, an ambitious local conglomerate that recently bought Hollywood’s Legendary Entertainment, have poured money into expansion; the number of screens across China has been rising at 36% a year since 2011.
Related topics
* Asia
* China
After years of breakneck expansion, the smartphone market is peaking. Some firms still thrive: China’s Huawei, a telecoms giant, predicts that revenues from its consumer-devices division will rise by about 50% this year. But Xiaomi, an innovative electronics firm once seen as China’s answer to Apple, is losing steam. Apple’s own fortunes have dipped since a leap in revenues from greater China last year. As the market for devices matures, consumer spending is shifting to mobile services: data usage has grown at triple-digit rates since 2012.
The unrelenting march of e-commerce continues. In 2010, online shopping accounted for only 3% of total private consumption, but it now makes up 15%. Alibaba, which processes more sales on its ecommerce platforms than eBay and Amazon combined, saw annual Chinese revenues grow to 63 billion yuan ($9.7 billion) in 2015, a rise of nearly 40% compared with a year earlier. JD, its main local rival, saw revenues leap by nearly 58%.
The Chinese still are spending heavily abroad. International tax-free shopping by Chinese shot up 58% last year, according to a new report from Global Blue, a big operator of duty-free shops. Overall, Chinese tourists spent $215 billion on outbound travel last year, a rise of 53% on the previous year. Ctrip, a big online travel firm partly owned by Baidu, a Chinese internet search giant, saw its revenues jump by nearly half last year, to 10.9 billion yuan.
As with cars, screens and travel, so with consumption generally. All retail sales across the economy, adjusted for inflation, rose by 9.6% during the first quarter, compared with the same period a year ago. The services sector, which caters to the growing demands of the middle classes, has been rising by 8% a year in real terms since 2012 (see chart, right). Services made up 57% of economic output in the first quarter; electricity consumption in services rose by some 10%, but was flat for industry.
Not every market is as bouncy as it once was. A cooling economy and an official anti-corruption drive have squeezed luxury goods, sales of which fell by 2% year on year in 2015, to 113 billion yuan. But some firms are doing well. Rémy Cointreau, a premium liquor brand offering tamper-proof bottles on the mainland (they have “near field communications” tags that tell your smartphone if the booze has been diluted) saw global revenues rise nearly 10% last quarter and gave credit to “improving trends in greater China.” According to Bernard Arnault, the boss of LVMH, a French luxury goliath: “Analysts underestimate the Chinese economy…the fundamentals are good. Household spending is still increasing.”
The two Chinas Can consumption remain resilient given the troubles of the country’s state-dominated industrial economy, ranging from vast overcapacity to record levels of debt? One temporary source of comfort is the fact that the state sector may now itself be stabilising, thanks to a massive, debt-fuelled government stimulus. But greater reassurance comes the fact that even a big shakeout in heavy industry would be unlikely to derail the Chinese consumer. By one estimate, if 30% of capacity is slashed across China’s most bloated state industries, perhaps 3m workers will lose their jobs over the next three years. But thanks largely to the private sector, the country created 64m jobs between 2011 and 2015, with more than 13m of them coming in the past year alone.
The dynamism of the mostly-private consumer sector comes not from stimulus, argues Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia, an investment firm, but from strong income growth and low household debt. (Chinese household debt stands at about 40% of GDP, roughly half the level seen in America.) Real urban incomes rose by 5.8% in the first quarter. Willis Towers Watson, a consultancy, estimates that white-collar salaries are now significantly higher in China than in southeast Asia. That fuels a bristling optimism. A recent study by McKinsey, a consultancy, found that 55% of consumers in China are confident that their incomes will rise significantly over the next five years.
Many big firms seem willing to look past current clouds over China’s economy to brighter days ahead. Pepsi, an American snack-food firm, opened its first Quaker Oats manufacturing plant on the mainland in October, and has launched oat-based dairy drinks to cater to local tastes. It even wants to introduce Pepsi-branded smartphones in China. McDonald’s, a huge American hamburger chain, wants 1,250 outlets in the mainland over the next five years on top of the 2,200 it operates already.
America’s Walt Disney, an entertainment colossus, is set to open Shanghai Disneyland, a $5.5 billion theme park that is its biggest investment outside Florida, in June. Keen to experience such novelties as Peking-duck-topped, Mickey-Mouse shaped pizza, Chinese families are now eagerly snapping up entry tickets online. Starbucks, an American coffee chain, plans to add 500 outlets this year in China, including one at the entrance of the new Disney park. Howard Schultz, its boss, predicts it will be “Starbucks’ highest-grossing retail store overnight.”
Firms such as these are betting on the continued rise of the affluent middle class. By 2020, the number of households earning above $24,000 per year is expected to double to 100m, making up 30% of all urban households. They are also betting on free-spending youth. Consumption is rising at 14% a year among under-35s, twice the level of oldies. But above all, they are betting on the law of large numbers. A joint study, by the Boston Consulting Group, another consultancy, and AliResearch, the research arm of Alibaba, predicts that even if economic growth falls to only 5.5% per year (well below official claims of nearly 7% a year now), China’s consumer economy will expand over the next five years by some $2.3 trillion. No matter what the deficiencies in economic forecasts, that incremental gain would be bigger than the entire consumer economy in Britain or Germany today.
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Spain 5 months without a government - New York Times
MADRID — Belgium famously sealed a dubious notoriety five years ago when it spent 589 days without an elected government. While Spain is not quite Belgium yet, it is getting there.
Spain has started its fifth month without a government, but it is very likely to spend six months or more in political limbo, many analysts now predict, as the Spaniards give the Flemings and Walloons a run for their money in the political discord category.
One word that seems to come up a lot these days when discussing politics is circo (or circus).
After an election in December produced no clear winner, scattering votes among the four main parties, those parties have failed to negotiate a governing coalition. As the politicians squabble incessantly, about the only consensus is that the country has entered uncharted waters.
Mariano Rajoy, the former prime minister, is clinging to his office as acting prime minister after turning down an offer from the king to form a government. His government ministers refuse to recognize the Parliament that resulted from the election or even deal with its lawmakers. The new Parliament has taken the government to court for not recognizing its legitimacy, while not recognizing the legitimacy of Mr. Rajoy, either.
That is where things stand.
It was not supposed to be this way. A new generation of party leaders had promised that the December vote would usher in a period of change and constitutional reform.
Instead, Spain is verging on constitutional crisis. The order of the day is institutional sclerosis, a lot of posturing and “generally a moment of great confusion,” said Rubén Amón, a columnist for El País, a Spanish newspaper.
“Politicians have given a very bad image in which all party leaders have put their own personal survival ahead of the general interest,” Mr. Amón said.
It is not as if public perceptions of the politicians could sink much lower in a country where virtually every party has been caught up in corruption scandals in recent years. But the nearly complete undermining of the public’s faith in its political institutions may be about the only thing achieved since the start of the year.
This month’s parliamentary debating was a case point. The session on April 6 was supposed to give lawmakers an opportunity to challenge Mr. Rajoy on why his government had backed a controversial European Union agreement to have Turkey take back unwanted refugees.
But humanitarian considerations quickly gave way to far more personal tensions between the leaders of Spain’s two emerging parties — Albert Rivera of Ciudadanos, or Citizens, and Pablo Iglesias of the far-left Podemos.
The two men, in their 30s, have presented themselves as a new generation of Spanish politician. But the new generation looked every bit like the old one, as they hurled accusations of cronyism.
It was part of what Luis María Anson, a veteran journalist, called “a depressing show” since the December election. Spanish politics, he argued in a recent column in the newspaper El Mundo, has become “a circus ring in which every day acrobatic leaders make ridiculous pirouettes to the stupefaction of citizens.”
Manuel de la Rocha Vázquez, an adviser to the Socialist party, suggested that the flamboyant sparring had become unavoidable in an era of round-the-clock news coverage.
Spain has started its fifth month without a government, but it is very likely to spend six months or more in political limbo, many analysts now predict, as the Spaniards give the Flemings and Walloons a run for their money in the political discord category.
One word that seems to come up a lot these days when discussing politics is circo (or circus).
After an election in December produced no clear winner, scattering votes among the four main parties, those parties have failed to negotiate a governing coalition. As the politicians squabble incessantly, about the only consensus is that the country has entered uncharted waters.
Mariano Rajoy, the former prime minister, is clinging to his office as acting prime minister after turning down an offer from the king to form a government. His government ministers refuse to recognize the Parliament that resulted from the election or even deal with its lawmakers. The new Parliament has taken the government to court for not recognizing its legitimacy, while not recognizing the legitimacy of Mr. Rajoy, either.
That is where things stand.
It was not supposed to be this way. A new generation of party leaders had promised that the December vote would usher in a period of change and constitutional reform.
Instead, Spain is verging on constitutional crisis. The order of the day is institutional sclerosis, a lot of posturing and “generally a moment of great confusion,” said Rubén Amón, a columnist for El País, a Spanish newspaper.
“Politicians have given a very bad image in which all party leaders have put their own personal survival ahead of the general interest,” Mr. Amón said.
It is not as if public perceptions of the politicians could sink much lower in a country where virtually every party has been caught up in corruption scandals in recent years. But the nearly complete undermining of the public’s faith in its political institutions may be about the only thing achieved since the start of the year.
This month’s parliamentary debating was a case point. The session on April 6 was supposed to give lawmakers an opportunity to challenge Mr. Rajoy on why his government had backed a controversial European Union agreement to have Turkey take back unwanted refugees.
But humanitarian considerations quickly gave way to far more personal tensions between the leaders of Spain’s two emerging parties — Albert Rivera of Ciudadanos, or Citizens, and Pablo Iglesias of the far-left Podemos.
The two men, in their 30s, have presented themselves as a new generation of Spanish politician. But the new generation looked every bit like the old one, as they hurled accusations of cronyism.
It was part of what Luis María Anson, a veteran journalist, called “a depressing show” since the December election. Spanish politics, he argued in a recent column in the newspaper El Mundo, has become “a circus ring in which every day acrobatic leaders make ridiculous pirouettes to the stupefaction of citizens.”
Manuel de la Rocha Vázquez, an adviser to the Socialist party, suggested that the flamboyant sparring had become unavoidable in an era of round-the-clock news coverage.
Monday, April 25, 2016
Why Intel Is Laying Off Thousands of Workers - TIME
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Posted: 22 Apr 2016 06:51 AM PDT
These days, it’s hard to conjure the sense of dread that the word “Wintel” inspired during the PC era. In the waning decades of the 20th Century, Wintel referred to the duopoly of Microsoft Windows and Intel’s x86 chips that, together, steamrolled competitors and dominated the tech landscape.
Of course, the Wintel platform still dominates the PC sector. But PCs aren’t what they used to be. Global shipments of desktops and laptops peaked at 365 million units five years ago and fell to 289 million in 2015. Meanwhile, combined sales of tablets and smartphones surged to about 1.7 billion units last year. In that context, Wintel dominates the way a trunkless statue of Ozymandias presides over an arid desert.
Microsoft and Intel saw the slowdown coming and tried to respond. Both companies watched their stocks trade sideways during the decade after the dot-com bust. Both struggled for years to find a foothold in the smartphone market. Both have named new CEOs over the past three years who vowed to upgrade their businesses to mine future areas of growth.
To date, Microsoft has had a more successful transition. Under Satya Nadella, the Redmond, Wash.-based firm engineered a bold restructuring, laying off thousands of workers last year and repositioning the company around growing markets like cloud computing. That has helped Microsoft improve its stock price by 93% in the past three years. During that time, Intel’s stock has risen 47%, underperforming the Nasdaq Composite’s 50% gain.
This isn’t to say that Intel is in trouble. But its transition from a dependence on an aging, still-profitable business of PC chips to more promising markets is taking longer than many had hoped. Intel has been pushing into growing areas like chips for data centers and the Internet of Things. And this week, CEO Brian Krzanich moved to speed up the transition by announcing 12,000 job cuts within the coming year.
“These are not changes I take lightly. We are saying goodbye to colleagues who have played an important role in Intel’s success,” Krzanich said in an email he sent to Intel’s 107,300 employees. “Today’s announcement is about accelerating our growth strategy.”
Krzanich describes that strategy as one that will “transform our company from a PC company to a company that powers the cloud and billions of smart, connected computing devices.” In short, a transition echoing the one Microsoft is also navigating. Call it the Wintel playbook for surviving in the 21st Century.
Sales of PC chips still make up more than half Intel’s revenue. Krzanich said that there are areas of the PC market Intel will continue to focus on, such as high-end laptops, gaming PCs and tablet/PC hybrids. For the past year or so, PC sales showed signs of stabilizing – that is, not growing, but not declining rapidly either. That changed this year, with shipments declining nearly 10% in the first three months.
In hindsight, Intel could have moved beyond the PC-chip business earlier. That highlights one difference with Microsoft, which reacted relatively quickly a decade ago, moving into enterprise and server software and paving the way for an early entry into the cloud.
Intel, by contrast, infamously passed on a chance to design the chips for Apple’s first iPhone, underestimating the potential of the smartphone market. Instead, chip designs from ARM Holdings became the standard. Some analysts believe a portion of the iPhone 7, expected this fall, may have Intel inside, although it may be too little too late. Global smartphone sales are also slowing as the market saturates.
Under Krzanich, Intel has been working to position itself in markets that promise future growth. Its data-center group saw revenue rise 9% to $4 billion, while its Internet of Things group saw revenue grow by 22% to $651 million. Last year, Intel paid $16.7 billion for Altera to ensure a foothold in the growing market for programmable chips. On an interview with CNBC this week, Krzanich said Intel will probably make more acquisitions to expand further beyond PCs.
The awkward transitions Intel and Microsoft are experiencing are almost a rite of passage for big tech companies as they age. IBM, Oracle and others have also had to embrace new cloud-based subscription models that are eating into their older businesses. And yet, true to the theory of disruptive innovation, they can’t abandon those old models too quickly, because they remain positive. The trick, if there is a trick, is timing the move from old to new just right.
Following Intel’s announcement of layoffs, analysts debated whether Intel’s timing is coming too late. A report from Stifel Nicolaus said the “workforce adjustment may have been overdue.” Another from MKM Partners argued they could boost profits in PC chips and allow for more investments in newer areas. Still another from Bernstein believed that, the layoffs notwithstanding, “the fundamentals of the company continue to deteriorate.”
Intel’s best hope may be Krzanich’s willingness to shake things up. A number of top executives who were Intel veterans have left the company this year, after Krzanich brought in an outsider – Murthy Renduchintala, who previously ran Qualcomm’s chip business – to oversee many of its products. On Tuesday, Krzanich said Renduchintala “is doing a complete review of all our products” to further the restructuring.
That may echo another bold change made by Microsoft, which required a shift in corporate culture to move into the future, embracing ideas that were alien during its years of PC dominance. That’s fitting, as the era of Wintel is over. And the two companies behind it are each feeling their own way into the future
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Sunday, April 24, 2016
Cruze and Kasici to jointly stop Trump - Wall Street Journal
In an unprecedented last-ditch effort to stop Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump, his two remaining rivals announced Sunday night they are divvying up the upcoming primary states to try to block the New York businessman’s path to the GOP nomination.
Top officials from the Ted Cruz and John Kasich campaigns announced the alliance in a pair of statements late Sunday night. The deal will keep Mr. Kasich, the Ohio governor, on the sidelines for Indiana’s May 3 primary, while Mr. Cruz, the Texas senator, won’t compete in contests in Oregon on May 17 and New Mexico on June 7.
“Our campaign will focus its time and resources in Indiana and in turn clear the path for Gov. Kasich to compete in Oregon and New Mexico, and we would hope that allies of both campaigns would follow our lead,” Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe said.
Mr. Kasich’s top strategist, John Weaver, made an explicit call for super PACs devoted to stopping Mr. Trump to follow the two campaigns’ lead.
“We will focus our time and resources in New Mexico and Oregon,” Mr. Weaver said. “We would expect independent third-party groups to do the same and honor the commitments made by the Cruz and Kasich campaigns.”
The Cruz-Kasich alliance marks a phase both candidates have resisted for months. Both men have rejected calls that they ask supporters to strategically back other candidates in order to stop Mr. Trump, who is the lone Republican with a statistical chance of winning the party’s nomination on the first ballot at the GOP’s national convention, to be held in July in Cleveland.
The agreement comes as Mr. Trump is in the midst of a successful run of states. He won 89 of New York’s 95 delegates on Tuesday and stands to carry all five northeastern states due to vote this week.
If the arrangement is successful, it stands to benefit both men. Mr. Cruz’s campaign is now arranged around the idea that he can clinch the GOP nomination on a second or third ballot at the convention, once delegates bound to Mr. Trump on the first vote become free to vote how they wish. Mr. Kasich’s hope is that not only does Mr. Trump fall short, but Mr. Cruz does too, and eventually Republican delegates choose him as the most electable candidate.
Republican candidates need 1,237 delegates at the party convention to become the presidential nominee.
Mr. Trump responded on Twitter Sunday night Messrs. Cruz and Kasich “are going to collude in order to keep me from getting the Republican nomination. DESPERATION!”
Mr. Trump’s spokeswoman didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The deal will also likely add fuel to Mr. Trump’s long-running argument that the presidential contest is “rigged” against him. Mr. Trump has for weeks claimed the GOP nominating rules are fixed to benefit other candidates.
Top officials from the Ted Cruz and John Kasich campaigns announced the alliance in a pair of statements late Sunday night. The deal will keep Mr. Kasich, the Ohio governor, on the sidelines for Indiana’s May 3 primary, while Mr. Cruz, the Texas senator, won’t compete in contests in Oregon on May 17 and New Mexico on June 7.
“Our campaign will focus its time and resources in Indiana and in turn clear the path for Gov. Kasich to compete in Oregon and New Mexico, and we would hope that allies of both campaigns would follow our lead,” Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe said.
Mr. Kasich’s top strategist, John Weaver, made an explicit call for super PACs devoted to stopping Mr. Trump to follow the two campaigns’ lead.
“We will focus our time and resources in New Mexico and Oregon,” Mr. Weaver said. “We would expect independent third-party groups to do the same and honor the commitments made by the Cruz and Kasich campaigns.”
The Cruz-Kasich alliance marks a phase both candidates have resisted for months. Both men have rejected calls that they ask supporters to strategically back other candidates in order to stop Mr. Trump, who is the lone Republican with a statistical chance of winning the party’s nomination on the first ballot at the GOP’s national convention, to be held in July in Cleveland.
The agreement comes as Mr. Trump is in the midst of a successful run of states. He won 89 of New York’s 95 delegates on Tuesday and stands to carry all five northeastern states due to vote this week.
If the arrangement is successful, it stands to benefit both men. Mr. Cruz’s campaign is now arranged around the idea that he can clinch the GOP nomination on a second or third ballot at the convention, once delegates bound to Mr. Trump on the first vote become free to vote how they wish. Mr. Kasich’s hope is that not only does Mr. Trump fall short, but Mr. Cruz does too, and eventually Republican delegates choose him as the most electable candidate.
Republican candidates need 1,237 delegates at the party convention to become the presidential nominee.
Mr. Trump responded on Twitter Sunday night Messrs. Cruz and Kasich “are going to collude in order to keep me from getting the Republican nomination. DESPERATION!”
Mr. Trump’s spokeswoman didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The deal will also likely add fuel to Mr. Trump’s long-running argument that the presidential contest is “rigged” against him. Mr. Trump has for weeks claimed the GOP nominating rules are fixed to benefit other candidates.
Apple should pay more tax - Fortune
Posted: 22 Apr 2016 04:16 AM PDT
Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak thinks the company — and all other companies — should be paying a 50% tax rate.
Woz told the BBC that he doesn’t like the idea that Apple is not paying taxes the way he does as an individual, saying he was worried its tax practices may be “unfair.”
“I do a lot of work, I do a lot of travel and I pay over 50% of everything I make in taxes, and I believe that’s part of life and you should do it,” Wozniak said. Asked if Apple should be paying such a rate, he replied: “Every company in the world should.”
Not that Woz, who left Apple over three decades ago, can do anything about it.
“I would not have any power and I don’t think it would be right for me, Steve Wozniak, to try to influence how Apple handles it, and I would have no effect anyway,” he said. “They’re going to take the thing that saves the last little penny. Apple’s so huge they don’t have to give in to anything.”
Apple recently paid $348 millionto settle a dispute with the Italian tax authorities, over the way it funnelled Italian profits through an Irish subsidiary in order to minimize its taxes.
It could also face a bill for billions in back-taxes if the European Commission concludes that Ireland gave it preferential treatment with its tax deal there, in a way that amounted to illegal state aid.
The company (like others) has made use of complex arrangements involving Ireland and Bermuda to cut its tax bill.
However, Apple CEO Tim Cook recently said the accusation that it was avoiding taxes was “total political crap” and the idea of bringing profits back to the U.S. was not “reasonable” because it would “cost me 40% to bring it home.” He also claimed Apple is already the biggest corporate tax payer in the U.S.
This article originally appeared on fortune.com
Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak thinks the company — and all other companies — should be paying a 50% tax rate.
Woz told the BBC that he doesn’t like the idea that Apple is not paying taxes the way he does as an individual, saying he was worried its tax practices may be “unfair.”
“I do a lot of work, I do a lot of travel and I pay over 50% of everything I make in taxes, and I believe that’s part of life and you should do it,” Wozniak said. Asked if Apple should be paying such a rate, he replied: “Every company in the world should.”
Not that Woz, who left Apple over three decades ago, can do anything about it.
“I would not have any power and I don’t think it would be right for me, Steve Wozniak, to try to influence how Apple handles it, and I would have no effect anyway,” he said. “They’re going to take the thing that saves the last little penny. Apple’s so huge they don’t have to give in to anything.”
Apple recently paid $348 millionto settle a dispute with the Italian tax authorities, over the way it funnelled Italian profits through an Irish subsidiary in order to minimize its taxes.
It could also face a bill for billions in back-taxes if the European Commission concludes that Ireland gave it preferential treatment with its tax deal there, in a way that amounted to illegal state aid.
The company (like others) has made use of complex arrangements involving Ireland and Bermuda to cut its tax bill.
However, Apple CEO Tim Cook recently said the accusation that it was avoiding taxes was “total political crap” and the idea of bringing profits back to the U.S. was not “reasonable” because it would “cost me 40% to bring it home.” He also claimed Apple is already the biggest corporate tax payer in the U.S.
This article originally appeared on fortune.com
Saturday, April 23, 2016
Uber is killing taxi cab business - TIME
Posted: 21 Apr 2016 08:15 AM PDT
Business travellers are increasingly using ride-hailing services like Uber or Lyft, taking business away from traditional taxi companies and car rentals.
Ride-hailing services make up nearly half (46%) of all rides according to expense management company Certify, who reviewed more than 9 million receipts and expenses by corporate travellers. The number of trips taken with services like Uber and Lyft nearly doubled in 2016’s first quarter compared with the same period in 2015.
“Uber’s continued success and Lyft’s recent growth with the business travel market is really being driven by three factors: cost, convenience and customer satisfaction,” said Certify’s CEO Robert Neveu in a statement. “These ride-hailing services have perfected a model that allows employees to choose the kind of experience they want when traveling for business while also saving the company a great deal of money in the process.
According to Certify, the number taxicab rides fell from a 37% share for taxis in the beginning of 2014 to 14% today.
Business travellers are increasingly using ride-hailing services like Uber or Lyft, taking business away from traditional taxi companies and car rentals.
Ride-hailing services make up nearly half (46%) of all rides according to expense management company Certify, who reviewed more than 9 million receipts and expenses by corporate travellers. The number of trips taken with services like Uber and Lyft nearly doubled in 2016’s first quarter compared with the same period in 2015.
“Uber’s continued success and Lyft’s recent growth with the business travel market is really being driven by three factors: cost, convenience and customer satisfaction,” said Certify’s CEO Robert Neveu in a statement. “These ride-hailing services have perfected a model that allows employees to choose the kind of experience they want when traveling for business while also saving the company a great deal of money in the process.
According to Certify, the number taxicab rides fell from a 37% share for taxis in the beginning of 2014 to 14% today.
Bill Gates on technology - TED Talk
Tech for Teaching
Opening Minds on Ed Tech
By Bill Gates
| April 21, 2016
Every teacher deserves the chance to be phenomenal.
It’s easy to say, and I don’t know anyone who would disagree with the sentiment. But in the history of American education, this vision has proven hard to deliver on. Whenever I talk to teachers, one of their biggest concerns is that they don’t have the tools they need to do their best work. We see the same results in polls of teachers.
I’m optimistic that all of us who are passionate about education can solve this problem. One of the main reasons I’m so hopeful is that advances in technology will make it easier to give teachers the support they deserve. For example, teachers will be able to upload videos of themselves and get advice from their peers, watch the best teachers in the world at work, and get real-time feedback from their students. Software will also help identify which students are having trouble and adjust for their own learning style, leaving teachers more time to focus on the kids who need extra personal attention. (I wrote in more detail about how software will improve education worldwide in last year’s Annual Letter.)
Developers will play a key role in making these advances. I recently had a chance to talk with a number of the leading companies doing this work when I spoke at the ASU GSV Summit, an education-technology conference in San Diego, California. I encouraged them to work more closely with teachers to understand their needs, and to make sure their products deliver measurable results in the classroom. Technology can revolutionize the way teachers and students work together—but only if we base our approaches on evidence about what works.
Below you can read the transcript of my onstage Q&A. I also gave a speech. There’s a lot of exciting work going on in this field, and I definitely left San Diego feeling better than ever about the potential for technology to support teachers and students in a big way.
ASU GSV Q&A
QUESTION: You have concerns about the pace of change and about whether we’re making adequate impact quickly enough and I’m just curious if you have advice for the entrepreneurs out there as they think about it. How do we accelerate this pace and have bigger impact on the students?
BILL GATES: Well, in the K-12 area, the way the products are selected, the way money is budgeted for those, over time, that’s really got to change. We’ve got to free up more of the professional development money. We’ve got to get some example products that are clearly so successful that it really opens peoples’ minds to what the role of technology here is. I’d say we’re pretty early in that process.
There are a lot of teachers who are willing to be the pioneers in this area—that’s where we’ve gotten the adoptions so far. There are a lot of cases where we try and go beyond and get a district-wide adoption. We really have to look at why the uptake by the actual usage isn’t quite there, because then that creates something that other people hear about and they’re very, very reluctant.
We do have the benefit though—the digital tools now with the combination of PC, tablet, and cell phone. The three of those we’re close to universality. The idea that the connection was holding things back or access to a device is holding things back—those haven’t gone away, but particularly if some of the experience can be done on a small screen—then even when you get outside the United States the access levels are starting to be a lot higher.
There’s a very positive framework. There’s a sense of need, you know, as people look at those college residence numbers, they look at those completion numbers, and the whole cost equation, higher education is really staring at a tough set of constraints. So that should serve to drive the demand.
QUESTION: It feels to me like we’re hitting a proverbial tipping point in the embrace of personalization and a better understanding of what adapted means, personalized means. What do you see over the next five years? What’s your prognosis both in K-12 and for higher ed actually?
BILL GATES: Well, personalized learning is a fairly clear definition. But I think there are different things that come under that umbrella.
Math is the most straightforward because the idea of assessing knowledge very efficiently and saying, “OK, if you really can answer those questions, then we’ll move on to the other area.” That’s far more concrete than say, writing or history.
I was pretty amazed in my last visit to Summit to see how they have taken all the different areas and really given the students a sense of some degree of choice in what they’re doing and a real sense of what they need to get done.
The idea of an agency—where the student knows how much they have to get done, they’re making some selections there that really creates a different relationship between the student and teacher. So I’m hopeful that for math, we can get a very broad rollout of that within the next five years.
It does require the schools to be open-minded because when you go to those new classrooms’ locations, they’re not just in a typical classroom. They’ve been allowed to remodel some of that space. So the kids are moving around and it’s quite amazing. But there was an upfront investment there and a decision to get all the teachers engaged in that new model.
It’s a lot easier if you can do the current physical classroom teacher by teacher. Some stuff fits into that. But the biggest impact is where you can make changes in those things as well—it’s a school-wide way of doing things.
As you get up into higher-ed, it’s a lot more straightforward because then there’s an assumption that, largely, the student is motivated. The student knows what they’re doing. And it is there (in higher-ed), the interactivity, the personalization—particularly in the remedial courses where we’ve gone the furthest—that we’ve seen a dramatic payback in.
QUESTION: We have a section called “Tomorrowland” at the Summit this year. Do you think the embrace of these new technologies—virtual reality, augmented reality—are going to accelerate the adoption of personalized learning?
BILL GATES: Yes, I think virtual reality can make things more engaging. And there are certain things where you have more of a sense—even if you can't, say, build a car in the virtual world, you can sit there and put the pieces together and almost feel like you're doing far more than would be practical in the real world.
There's a lot of pedagogy about understanding the science and the math (principles) that really won't change much just because we put it in a virtual reality framework.
School is always about motivation. The material has been in the textbooks for a long time. In some subject areas, it hasn't even changed that much. If we can use it to draw people in, then that's incredibly valuable.
I'm just starting this for some of the videos I do—like where I go out to a refugee camp or to a developing country, to actually make a virtual reality movie. So people actually have a sense so they can see what it was like and look around and feel it.
And yes, we see it as we're creating those early stage things. We see a lot of engagement. And so combining that with the underlying concepts and not just having it be a distraction.
In learning science, there are a lot of things about—you make things too animated, too colorful, things like that—it often distracts from what you're really trying to get done, which is the attention to a few basic concepts. So I'm sure we'll be able to abuse virtual reality as well as we have ANY new technology that's out there.
I do think in terms of design, lots of engineering things, there's lots of places where it will play a practical role and hopefully draw people in.
And the cost—particularly where you're just taking the cellphone and repurposing that—we won't have to wait a whole decade before the accessibility is there for the lower-end versions of this. The higher-end versions—having an environment where you spend the $500-$1,000 and have it as a shared device—we should have that in a lot of locations as well.
QUESTION: One of the things I most admire about you and Melinda are that you’re proactive. You’re avid visitors. You visit schools. You’ve talked about some of them a number of times already. You visit schools. You visit universities. What’s the key takeaway you’ve seen in the most recent period in terms of your visits? What are you hearing from educators on the ground that you’re incorporating into your work?
BILL GATES: Well, it’s been very interesting to learn about who online (learning) is working for. And so far, a lot of the people who are engaged online are more of these adult students who are tougher because their scheduling is more difficult, but they’re easier because they come back for a reason. That is, they’re self-selected that, “OK I want to become a nurse.” “I want to get this engineering degree.”
And so, online, because it fits into that time flexibility and because they’re willing to persevere—that’s been the initial audience that that’s worked well for.
But there are people now, including ASU, who are using it for other cohorts. And they’re taking the very latest, which is far more engaging content than we’ve had in the past, and trying to make it work for everyone.
I think in education, there’s two types of visits you can do. When you get discouraged and don’t think that anything can happen—then you’ve got to go visit KIPP or Green Dot, or High Tech High, or Summit, and see classrooms—or Rocket Ship, which actually is doing some very interesting things.
Go to one where it all really came together: great teachers, a new approach, and you get reminded, “Wow—if we could do this for every student this would be phenomenal!” Then if you ever think, “Oh boy! This is great.” Then go and visit a college that has a 19 percent completion rate or go to an inner-city high school and get a sense of the disengagement that’s there and the amount of resources that’s just going to make sure that the environment is secure.
And so we have plenty of opportunity to see both of those. I do more visits to the ones that are doing well, because those are the best practices we want to spread.
My most recent trip this fall was to Appalachia and I thought that would be a mix. But because Kentucky has invested in their schools over the last 10 years, what we saw was mostly uplifting. These are public schools, very low-income kids, and the way those communities have come together around some of the new curriculum, better professional development, was really inspiring. So that gives you maybe a year or two of motivation you need to do it even more.
Opening Minds on Ed Tech
By Bill Gates
| April 21, 2016
Every teacher deserves the chance to be phenomenal.
It’s easy to say, and I don’t know anyone who would disagree with the sentiment. But in the history of American education, this vision has proven hard to deliver on. Whenever I talk to teachers, one of their biggest concerns is that they don’t have the tools they need to do their best work. We see the same results in polls of teachers.
I’m optimistic that all of us who are passionate about education can solve this problem. One of the main reasons I’m so hopeful is that advances in technology will make it easier to give teachers the support they deserve. For example, teachers will be able to upload videos of themselves and get advice from their peers, watch the best teachers in the world at work, and get real-time feedback from their students. Software will also help identify which students are having trouble and adjust for their own learning style, leaving teachers more time to focus on the kids who need extra personal attention. (I wrote in more detail about how software will improve education worldwide in last year’s Annual Letter.)
Developers will play a key role in making these advances. I recently had a chance to talk with a number of the leading companies doing this work when I spoke at the ASU GSV Summit, an education-technology conference in San Diego, California. I encouraged them to work more closely with teachers to understand their needs, and to make sure their products deliver measurable results in the classroom. Technology can revolutionize the way teachers and students work together—but only if we base our approaches on evidence about what works.
Below you can read the transcript of my onstage Q&A. I also gave a speech. There’s a lot of exciting work going on in this field, and I definitely left San Diego feeling better than ever about the potential for technology to support teachers and students in a big way.
ASU GSV Q&A
QUESTION: You have concerns about the pace of change and about whether we’re making adequate impact quickly enough and I’m just curious if you have advice for the entrepreneurs out there as they think about it. How do we accelerate this pace and have bigger impact on the students?
BILL GATES: Well, in the K-12 area, the way the products are selected, the way money is budgeted for those, over time, that’s really got to change. We’ve got to free up more of the professional development money. We’ve got to get some example products that are clearly so successful that it really opens peoples’ minds to what the role of technology here is. I’d say we’re pretty early in that process.
There are a lot of teachers who are willing to be the pioneers in this area—that’s where we’ve gotten the adoptions so far. There are a lot of cases where we try and go beyond and get a district-wide adoption. We really have to look at why the uptake by the actual usage isn’t quite there, because then that creates something that other people hear about and they’re very, very reluctant.
We do have the benefit though—the digital tools now with the combination of PC, tablet, and cell phone. The three of those we’re close to universality. The idea that the connection was holding things back or access to a device is holding things back—those haven’t gone away, but particularly if some of the experience can be done on a small screen—then even when you get outside the United States the access levels are starting to be a lot higher.
There’s a very positive framework. There’s a sense of need, you know, as people look at those college residence numbers, they look at those completion numbers, and the whole cost equation, higher education is really staring at a tough set of constraints. So that should serve to drive the demand.
QUESTION: It feels to me like we’re hitting a proverbial tipping point in the embrace of personalization and a better understanding of what adapted means, personalized means. What do you see over the next five years? What’s your prognosis both in K-12 and for higher ed actually?
BILL GATES: Well, personalized learning is a fairly clear definition. But I think there are different things that come under that umbrella.
Math is the most straightforward because the idea of assessing knowledge very efficiently and saying, “OK, if you really can answer those questions, then we’ll move on to the other area.” That’s far more concrete than say, writing or history.
I was pretty amazed in my last visit to Summit to see how they have taken all the different areas and really given the students a sense of some degree of choice in what they’re doing and a real sense of what they need to get done.
The idea of an agency—where the student knows how much they have to get done, they’re making some selections there that really creates a different relationship between the student and teacher. So I’m hopeful that for math, we can get a very broad rollout of that within the next five years.
It does require the schools to be open-minded because when you go to those new classrooms’ locations, they’re not just in a typical classroom. They’ve been allowed to remodel some of that space. So the kids are moving around and it’s quite amazing. But there was an upfront investment there and a decision to get all the teachers engaged in that new model.
It’s a lot easier if you can do the current physical classroom teacher by teacher. Some stuff fits into that. But the biggest impact is where you can make changes in those things as well—it’s a school-wide way of doing things.
As you get up into higher-ed, it’s a lot more straightforward because then there’s an assumption that, largely, the student is motivated. The student knows what they’re doing. And it is there (in higher-ed), the interactivity, the personalization—particularly in the remedial courses where we’ve gone the furthest—that we’ve seen a dramatic payback in.
QUESTION: We have a section called “Tomorrowland” at the Summit this year. Do you think the embrace of these new technologies—virtual reality, augmented reality—are going to accelerate the adoption of personalized learning?
BILL GATES: Yes, I think virtual reality can make things more engaging. And there are certain things where you have more of a sense—even if you can't, say, build a car in the virtual world, you can sit there and put the pieces together and almost feel like you're doing far more than would be practical in the real world.
There's a lot of pedagogy about understanding the science and the math (principles) that really won't change much just because we put it in a virtual reality framework.
School is always about motivation. The material has been in the textbooks for a long time. In some subject areas, it hasn't even changed that much. If we can use it to draw people in, then that's incredibly valuable.
I'm just starting this for some of the videos I do—like where I go out to a refugee camp or to a developing country, to actually make a virtual reality movie. So people actually have a sense so they can see what it was like and look around and feel it.
And yes, we see it as we're creating those early stage things. We see a lot of engagement. And so combining that with the underlying concepts and not just having it be a distraction.
In learning science, there are a lot of things about—you make things too animated, too colorful, things like that—it often distracts from what you're really trying to get done, which is the attention to a few basic concepts. So I'm sure we'll be able to abuse virtual reality as well as we have ANY new technology that's out there.
I do think in terms of design, lots of engineering things, there's lots of places where it will play a practical role and hopefully draw people in.
And the cost—particularly where you're just taking the cellphone and repurposing that—we won't have to wait a whole decade before the accessibility is there for the lower-end versions of this. The higher-end versions—having an environment where you spend the $500-$1,000 and have it as a shared device—we should have that in a lot of locations as well.
QUESTION: One of the things I most admire about you and Melinda are that you’re proactive. You’re avid visitors. You visit schools. You’ve talked about some of them a number of times already. You visit schools. You visit universities. What’s the key takeaway you’ve seen in the most recent period in terms of your visits? What are you hearing from educators on the ground that you’re incorporating into your work?
BILL GATES: Well, it’s been very interesting to learn about who online (learning) is working for. And so far, a lot of the people who are engaged online are more of these adult students who are tougher because their scheduling is more difficult, but they’re easier because they come back for a reason. That is, they’re self-selected that, “OK I want to become a nurse.” “I want to get this engineering degree.”
And so, online, because it fits into that time flexibility and because they’re willing to persevere—that’s been the initial audience that that’s worked well for.
But there are people now, including ASU, who are using it for other cohorts. And they’re taking the very latest, which is far more engaging content than we’ve had in the past, and trying to make it work for everyone.
I think in education, there’s two types of visits you can do. When you get discouraged and don’t think that anything can happen—then you’ve got to go visit KIPP or Green Dot, or High Tech High, or Summit, and see classrooms—or Rocket Ship, which actually is doing some very interesting things.
Go to one where it all really came together: great teachers, a new approach, and you get reminded, “Wow—if we could do this for every student this would be phenomenal!” Then if you ever think, “Oh boy! This is great.” Then go and visit a college that has a 19 percent completion rate or go to an inner-city high school and get a sense of the disengagement that’s there and the amount of resources that’s just going to make sure that the environment is secure.
And so we have plenty of opportunity to see both of those. I do more visits to the ones that are doing well, because those are the best practices we want to spread.
My most recent trip this fall was to Appalachia and I thought that would be a mix. But because Kentucky has invested in their schools over the last 10 years, what we saw was mostly uplifting. These are public schools, very low-income kids, and the way those communities have come together around some of the new curriculum, better professional development, was really inspiring. So that gives you maybe a year or two of motivation you need to do it even more.
Friday, April 22, 2016
Paris Agreement on climate change to be signed on Earth Day - NBC News
As many as 170 countries are expected to sign the Paris Agreement on climate change Friday as the landmark deal takes a key step toward entering into force years ahead of schedule.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry joins dozens of world leaders for a signing ceremony that is expected to set a record for international diplomacy: Never have so many countries signed an agreement on the first available day. States that don't sign Friday have a year to do so.
Many now expect the climate agreement to enter into force long before the original deadline of 2020. Some say it could happen this year.
After signing, countries must formally approve the Paris Agreement through their domestic procedures. The United Nations says at least 13 countries are expected to do that Friday by depositing their instruments of ratification.
The agreement will enter into force once 55 countries representing at least 55 percent of global emissions have formally joined it. The United States and China, which together account for nearly 40 percent of global emissions, have said they intend to join this year.
"We definitely want to be in the first wave of ratifying countries," Maros Sefcovic, the energy chief for another top emitter, the 28-nation European Union, told reporters Thursday.
Countries that had not yet indicated they would sign the agreement Friday include some of the world's largest oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Nigeria and Kazakhstan, the World Resources Institute said Thursday.
The Paris Agreement, the world's response to hotter temperatures, rising seas and other impacts of climate change, was reached in December as a major breakthrough in U.N. climate negotiations, which for years were slowed by disputes between rich and poor countries over who should do what.
Under the agreement, countries set their own targets for reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The targets are not legally binding, but countries must update them every five years.
Already, states face pressure to do more. Scientific analyses show the initial set of targets that countries pledged before Paris don't match the agreement's long-term goal to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), compared with pre-industrial times. Global average temperatures have already climbed by almost 1 degree C. Last year was the hottest on record.
The latest analysis by the Climate Interactive research group shows the Paris pledges put the world on track for 3.5 degrees C of warming. A separate analysis by Climate Action Tracker, a European group, projected warming of 2.7 degrees C.
Either way, scientists say the consequences could be catastrophic in some places, wiping out crops, flooding coastal areas and melting Arctic sea ice.
The United States is a key concern for the Paris Agreement as other countries worry what the next president might do. Analysts say that if the agreement enters into force before President Barack Obama leaves office in January, it would be more complicated for his successor to withdraw from the deal, because it would take four years to do so under the agreement's rules.
"Walking away from the agreement would instantly turn the U.S. from a leader to a defector" with serious diplomatic consequences, Elliot Diringer of the U.S.-based Center for Climate and Energy Solutions think tank told reporters Thursday.
The Obama administration is expected to treat the deal as an executive agreement, which needs only the president's approval.
As the Paris Agreement moves forward, there is some good news. Global energy emissions, the biggest source of man-made greenhouse gases, were flat last year even though the global economy grew, according to the International Energy Agency.
Still, fossil fuels are used much more widely than renewable sources like wind and solar power.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry joins dozens of world leaders for a signing ceremony that is expected to set a record for international diplomacy: Never have so many countries signed an agreement on the first available day. States that don't sign Friday have a year to do so.
Many now expect the climate agreement to enter into force long before the original deadline of 2020. Some say it could happen this year.
After signing, countries must formally approve the Paris Agreement through their domestic procedures. The United Nations says at least 13 countries are expected to do that Friday by depositing their instruments of ratification.
The agreement will enter into force once 55 countries representing at least 55 percent of global emissions have formally joined it. The United States and China, which together account for nearly 40 percent of global emissions, have said they intend to join this year.
"We definitely want to be in the first wave of ratifying countries," Maros Sefcovic, the energy chief for another top emitter, the 28-nation European Union, told reporters Thursday.
Countries that had not yet indicated they would sign the agreement Friday include some of the world's largest oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Nigeria and Kazakhstan, the World Resources Institute said Thursday.
The Paris Agreement, the world's response to hotter temperatures, rising seas and other impacts of climate change, was reached in December as a major breakthrough in U.N. climate negotiations, which for years were slowed by disputes between rich and poor countries over who should do what.
Under the agreement, countries set their own targets for reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The targets are not legally binding, but countries must update them every five years.
Already, states face pressure to do more. Scientific analyses show the initial set of targets that countries pledged before Paris don't match the agreement's long-term goal to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), compared with pre-industrial times. Global average temperatures have already climbed by almost 1 degree C. Last year was the hottest on record.
The latest analysis by the Climate Interactive research group shows the Paris pledges put the world on track for 3.5 degrees C of warming. A separate analysis by Climate Action Tracker, a European group, projected warming of 2.7 degrees C.
Either way, scientists say the consequences could be catastrophic in some places, wiping out crops, flooding coastal areas and melting Arctic sea ice.
The United States is a key concern for the Paris Agreement as other countries worry what the next president might do. Analysts say that if the agreement enters into force before President Barack Obama leaves office in January, it would be more complicated for his successor to withdraw from the deal, because it would take four years to do so under the agreement's rules.
"Walking away from the agreement would instantly turn the U.S. from a leader to a defector" with serious diplomatic consequences, Elliot Diringer of the U.S.-based Center for Climate and Energy Solutions think tank told reporters Thursday.
The Obama administration is expected to treat the deal as an executive agreement, which needs only the president's approval.
As the Paris Agreement moves forward, there is some good news. Global energy emissions, the biggest source of man-made greenhouse gases, were flat last year even though the global economy grew, according to the International Energy Agency.
Still, fossil fuels are used much more widely than renewable sources like wind and solar power.
Thursday, April 21, 2016
Volkswagon's big fix for air pollution cars scandal - Fortune
.
This Is Volkswagen's Big Fix for Its 'Dirty Diesel' Scandal
Some customers will get $5,000 each.
Volkswagen AG and U.S. officials have reached a framework deal ahead of a Thursday court deadline offering to buy back hundreds of thousands of vehicles emitting up to 40 times legally allowable pollution, two sources briefed on the matter said Wednesday.
The German automaker is expected to tell a federal judge in San Francisco Thursday that it has agreed to offer to buy back up to 500,000 2.0-liter diesel U.S. vehicles that used sophisticated software to evade U.S. emission rules.
Volkswagen has also agreed to a compensation fund for owners, but it is not clear how much owners might receive, a person briefed on the matter said.
Volkswagen may also offer to repair polluting diesel vehicles if U.S. regulators approve the fix as workable at a future date, the sources said.
VW will pay cash compensation to owners who either sell their vehicles back or get them fixed, a source briefed on the matter said. Owners selling back their vehicles will get an additional cash payment on top of receiving the estimated value of the vehicles from before the emissions scandal became public in September 2015.
The compensation fund is expected to represent more than $1 billion on top of the cost of buying back the vehicles, a person briefed on the matter said.
Owners are expected to have around two years to decide whether to sell back vehicles or get them repaired. It is not clear whether VW will be allowed to resell vehicles they buy back, the source said.
A VW spokeswoman, the EPA and the Justice Department declined to comment Wednesday.
Separately, Germany’s Die Welt newspaper reported Wednesday that the deal to settle the case would involve it paying each affected customer $5,000. But a person briefed on the matter said no decisions on how individual compensation will be awarded have been made.
In December, VW said it was creating an independent claims program for owners of vehicles with excess emissions.
It named compensation expert Ken Feinberg, who administered funds for the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, BP Plc Deepwater Horizon oil spill and General Motors Co ignition switch crashes, to create and administer the program.
The framework deal with U.S. officials was reached after lengthy talks in recent days at the Washington law office of Robert Mueller, the former FBI director and court appointed mediator named to help settle more than 500 civil suits.
Some elements of the settlement are still being worked out and details are not expected to be announced Thursday at a court hearing.
A final settlement is also expected to include an environmental remediation fund to address excess pollution emitted by the vehicles since 2009. It is not clear if the deal will resolve the Justice Department’s civil suit filed in January against VW or if VW will agree to pay a civil penalty.
U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer in March gave VW until Thursday “to announce a concrete proposal for getting the polluting vehicles off the road.”
Breyer said in March the “proposal may include a vehicle buy-back plan or a fix approved by the relevant regulators that allows the cars to remain on the road with certain modifications.”
In September VW admitted to cheating on emissions tests for 11 million vehicles worldwide since 2009, which prompted VW Chief Executive Martin Winterkorn to resign.
VW still faces ongoing criminal investigations by the U.S. Justice Department and other prosecutors around the world.
This Is Volkswagen's Big Fix for Its 'Dirty Diesel' Scandal
Some customers will get $5,000 each.
Volkswagen AG and U.S. officials have reached a framework deal ahead of a Thursday court deadline offering to buy back hundreds of thousands of vehicles emitting up to 40 times legally allowable pollution, two sources briefed on the matter said Wednesday.
The German automaker is expected to tell a federal judge in San Francisco Thursday that it has agreed to offer to buy back up to 500,000 2.0-liter diesel U.S. vehicles that used sophisticated software to evade U.S. emission rules.
Volkswagen has also agreed to a compensation fund for owners, but it is not clear how much owners might receive, a person briefed on the matter said.
Volkswagen may also offer to repair polluting diesel vehicles if U.S. regulators approve the fix as workable at a future date, the sources said.
VW will pay cash compensation to owners who either sell their vehicles back or get them fixed, a source briefed on the matter said. Owners selling back their vehicles will get an additional cash payment on top of receiving the estimated value of the vehicles from before the emissions scandal became public in September 2015.
The compensation fund is expected to represent more than $1 billion on top of the cost of buying back the vehicles, a person briefed on the matter said.
Owners are expected to have around two years to decide whether to sell back vehicles or get them repaired. It is not clear whether VW will be allowed to resell vehicles they buy back, the source said.
A VW spokeswoman, the EPA and the Justice Department declined to comment Wednesday.
Separately, Germany’s Die Welt newspaper reported Wednesday that the deal to settle the case would involve it paying each affected customer $5,000. But a person briefed on the matter said no decisions on how individual compensation will be awarded have been made.
In December, VW said it was creating an independent claims program for owners of vehicles with excess emissions.
It named compensation expert Ken Feinberg, who administered funds for the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, BP Plc Deepwater Horizon oil spill and General Motors Co ignition switch crashes, to create and administer the program.
The framework deal with U.S. officials was reached after lengthy talks in recent days at the Washington law office of Robert Mueller, the former FBI director and court appointed mediator named to help settle more than 500 civil suits.
Some elements of the settlement are still being worked out and details are not expected to be announced Thursday at a court hearing.
A final settlement is also expected to include an environmental remediation fund to address excess pollution emitted by the vehicles since 2009. It is not clear if the deal will resolve the Justice Department’s civil suit filed in January against VW or if VW will agree to pay a civil penalty.
U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer in March gave VW until Thursday “to announce a concrete proposal for getting the polluting vehicles off the road.”
Breyer said in March the “proposal may include a vehicle buy-back plan or a fix approved by the relevant regulators that allows the cars to remain on the road with certain modifications.”
In September VW admitted to cheating on emissions tests for 11 million vehicles worldwide since 2009, which prompted VW Chief Executive Martin Winterkorn to resign.
VW still faces ongoing criminal investigations by the U.S. Justice Department and other prosecutors around the world.
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
Russia succeeds in overturning Dutch court ruling on Yukos Oil arbitration - Bloomberg
Russia succeeded in its battle to overturn a $50 billion arbitration ruling, the biggest ever, after a Dutch court ruled that the panel of judges never should have reviewed the matter.
A district court in The Hague ruled that the tribunal misinterpreted a treaty that Russia signed but never ratified and wasn’t qualified to issue the award to the former owners of Yukos Oil Co., according to a copy of the judgment.
The victory for Russia may free up accounts and property belonging to state companies abroad that were frozen while GML Ltd., a holding company belonging to four former Yukos owners, attempted to collect the award. France froze about $1 billion in assets -- much of which was later released -- as it enforced a 2014 judgment. Russia’s legal team will file a motion to overturn asset seizures in Belgium and France, said Andrey Kondakov, the general director of the International Center for Legal Protection, which is coordinating Russia’s defense.
GML said it plans to appeal the decision.
“The Russian Federation was not bound by the provisional application of the arbitration regulations,” according to the ruling. “The Tribunal wrongly declared itself competent in the Arbitration to take cognizance of the claims and issue the ensuing award."
A district court in The Hague ruled that the tribunal misinterpreted a treaty that Russia signed but never ratified and wasn’t qualified to issue the award to the former owners of Yukos Oil Co., according to a copy of the judgment.
The victory for Russia may free up accounts and property belonging to state companies abroad that were frozen while GML Ltd., a holding company belonging to four former Yukos owners, attempted to collect the award. France froze about $1 billion in assets -- much of which was later released -- as it enforced a 2014 judgment. Russia’s legal team will file a motion to overturn asset seizures in Belgium and France, said Andrey Kondakov, the general director of the International Center for Legal Protection, which is coordinating Russia’s defense.
GML said it plans to appeal the decision.
“The Russian Federation was not bound by the provisional application of the arbitration regulations,” according to the ruling. “The Tribunal wrongly declared itself competent in the Arbitration to take cognizance of the claims and issue the ensuing award."
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
iPhone sales fell off a cliff last quarter - Fortune
Posted: 18 Apr 2016 07:21 AM PDT
Apple’s iPhone business had a rough first quarter, according to new data from research firm TrendForce.
Apple shipped 42 million iPhones in the first quarter, representing a 43.8% decline compared with the fourth quarter of 2015. It was also down more than 10 million units from the 55 million shipments Apple notched in the first quarter of 2015, according to TrendForce.
“Sales of iPhone 6s have been lackluster as the model lacks exciting new features,” the company said of Apple’s first quarter. TrendForce added that Apple itself has become “more conservative” with its smartphone inventory in preparation of launching its next handset.
Apple’s troubles in the first quarter provided it just 14.4% market share, down significantly from the 20.9% share it had secured in the fourth quarter. Apple had 19.9% market share in the first quarter of 2015.
The findings come on the heels of Apple announcing its latest iPhone, the iPhone SE. The device, which comes with a 4-inch screen, is designed to appeal to the midrange of the market and attract more customers who might be turning to cheaper devices in emerging markets. However, TrendForce, which has offices in Beijing and Shenzhen, says Apple’s latest handset could have some trouble attracting customers in the critical Chinese market.
“As the budget model, iPhone SE will support Apple’s overall shipments in the second quarter before the next major iPhone release,” TrendForce smartphone analyst Avril Wu said in a statement. “However, iPhone SE is going to face severe price competition from Chinese branded products in its target market, which is the mid-range device segment.”
Wu was bearish on Apple’s chances of success with the iPhone SE, projecting that the company will ship fewer than 15 million units this year.
The weak iPhone SE, combined with Apple’s own “conservative” handling of its supply chain, prompted TrendForce to project Apple would ship 213 million iPhones this year, down 10% compared with the previous year.
Despite the bearish outlook on Apple, TrendForce was surprised by Samsung’s success in the first quarter, saying that shipments “exceeded expectations” and reached 81 million units, a gain of 2.5% compared with the fourth quarter. Samsung’s shipments were, of course, boosted by its Galaxy S7 and Galaxy S7 Edge flagship devices, but nonetheless helped it take the top spot in the first quarter with 27.8% market share. The successful first quarter prompted TrendForce to raise its annual Samsung smartphone shipments to 316 million units, nearly matching its total shipments last year.
In addition, TrendForce noted that the first quarter was a solid one for Chinese companies, which combined to ship 125 million smartphones. It was the first time those companies, including Huawei, Lenovo, and Xiaomi, among others, combined to ship more smartphones than Apple and Samsung together. Huawei was the leading China-based smartphone maker during the first quarter.
“Huawei won’t be able to overtake Apple and become the No. 2 smartphone brand worldwide any time soon,” Wu said in a statement. “Still, the market share gap between Huawei and Apple are expected to narrow with each passing year.”
That said, this is just one quarter and it’s unknown at this point what Apple has up its sleeve for the rest of the year. The company is expected to launch the iPhone 7 later this year, which should come with a new design and several improved features. Apple has been doubted before, but one exciting new device could flip forecasts on their heads. Whether the iPhone 7 could be the device to do that remains to be seen.
Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the TrendForce report.
This article originally appeared on Fortune.com
Apple users I/D scam - The Independent
Apple users are receiving phishing messages designed to trick them into handing over their Apple ID passwords and other pieces of personal information.
People hit by the scam usually receive an unsolicited message which claims to come from Apple, urging them to immediately change their Apple ID password before it expires.
Victims are then directed to an unoffical but legitimate-looking website like AppleIDLogin.co.uk, where they are asked to input their username and password.
Anyone else received one of these Apple ID texts? Is it all above board or is it some kind of phishing scam?
After that, they are told their account has been locked for "security reasons," and are directed to enter other personal information like address and credit card details, in order to "unlock" the account, according to security expert Graham Cluley.
Of course, the site isn't genuine - it's all part of an elaborate phishing attack, designed to get users to hand over information which could be used by cybercriminals.
Many security-savvy people wouldn't be taken in by such a scheme, but the scammers have taken some measures to appear as real as possible, by using the recipient's real name in the text message and making their name appear in targets' phones as 'AppleInc'.
A number of Apple users appear to have been hit with the scam messages recently
There have been previous reports of this scam being carried out over emailbefore, but it appears to have reared its head once again.
Apple's phishing support page advises users to "never send credit card information, account passwords, or extensive personal information" to someone, unless they've fully verified the senders are who they say they are.
By carefully reading suspicious emails or texts and thinking critically about the message's claims, it should be easy to avoid such scams.
It also pays to look closely at the address bar of a website - if it's a genuine Apple site, 'Apple Inc', sometimes alongside a padlock, will appear in green on one side, depending on which browser you use.
It also helps to look at the URL itself - official Apple websites, like AppleID.Apple.com usually contain the company's actual domain. If you see something like AppleExpired.co.uk or AppleIDLogin.co.uk, you know something's amiss.
As usual, the best defence against phishing attacks is to stay vigilant and ignore or delete any messages that look even slightly suspicious. If you're still in doubt, contact the actual company directly, and they'll be able to verify whether there's any real problems or not.
People hit by the scam usually receive an unsolicited message which claims to come from Apple, urging them to immediately change their Apple ID password before it expires.
Victims are then directed to an unoffical but legitimate-looking website like AppleIDLogin.co.uk, where they are asked to input their username and password.
Anyone else received one of these Apple ID texts? Is it all above board or is it some kind of phishing scam?
After that, they are told their account has been locked for "security reasons," and are directed to enter other personal information like address and credit card details, in order to "unlock" the account, according to security expert Graham Cluley.
Of course, the site isn't genuine - it's all part of an elaborate phishing attack, designed to get users to hand over information which could be used by cybercriminals.
Many security-savvy people wouldn't be taken in by such a scheme, but the scammers have taken some measures to appear as real as possible, by using the recipient's real name in the text message and making their name appear in targets' phones as 'AppleInc'.
A number of Apple users appear to have been hit with the scam messages recently
There have been previous reports of this scam being carried out over emailbefore, but it appears to have reared its head once again.
Apple's phishing support page advises users to "never send credit card information, account passwords, or extensive personal information" to someone, unless they've fully verified the senders are who they say they are.
By carefully reading suspicious emails or texts and thinking critically about the message's claims, it should be easy to avoid such scams.
It also pays to look closely at the address bar of a website - if it's a genuine Apple site, 'Apple Inc', sometimes alongside a padlock, will appear in green on one side, depending on which browser you use.
It also helps to look at the URL itself - official Apple websites, like AppleID.Apple.com usually contain the company's actual domain. If you see something like AppleExpired.co.uk or AppleIDLogin.co.uk, you know something's amiss.
As usual, the best defence against phishing attacks is to stay vigilant and ignore or delete any messages that look even slightly suspicious. If you're still in doubt, contact the actual company directly, and they'll be able to verify whether there's any real problems or not.
Monday, April 18, 2016
Crude oil prices still volatile - CNBC
Crude markets are poised to become more volatile as Saudi Arabia flexes its muscles in the region and seeks to turn the screws on U.S. and Iranian oil production, Again Capital partner John Kilduff said Monday.
Negotiations to freeze crude production at January levels fell apartover the weekend after Iran snubbed the gathering and top oil exporter Saudi Arabia refused to follow through with the deal without Tehran's participation.
Kilduff pinned the aggressive stand on Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Ahead of the Doha meeting, the 30-year-old prince said Saudi Arabia could increase production by 1 million barrels per day.
The 30-year-old prince who is changing the world
"I think there's going to be one more beat down for prices that's really going to inflict the kind of pain the Saudis really want to [inflict] to the rest of the higher cost producers," Kilduff told CNBC's "Squawk Box."
OPEC's decision in 2014 to maintain high output levels rather than cut production to balance a market oversupplied by about 1.5 to 2 million bpd has been widely seen as a bid to pressure high-cost producers like U.S. shale oil drillers. U.S. production had surged through last year, contributing significantly to global oversupply.
The number of rigs in U.S. oil fields has fallen by nearly 80 percent from a peak of about 1,600 in October 2014 to roughly 350 last week. Oil production has fallen by about 600,000 bpd from a peak of nearly 9.7 million last year.
The Saudis are "not done with us yet. They are not done fixing our wagon yet," Kilduff said, referring to U.S. producers.
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*
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The Saudis are also targeting its regional rival Iran, which has ramped up oil exports after sanctions on the country were lifted, he said.
While a strike among oil workers in Kuwait is temporarily supporting oil prices, the downward pressures on crude futures will be "intense" as the Saudis compete for market share with other producers, he added.
The last key to the further pressure on oil prices could be slowdown in crude demand following the International Monetary Fund's downward revision to its world growth forecast last week, Kilduff said.
Negotiations to freeze crude production at January levels fell apartover the weekend after Iran snubbed the gathering and top oil exporter Saudi Arabia refused to follow through with the deal without Tehran's participation.
Kilduff pinned the aggressive stand on Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Ahead of the Doha meeting, the 30-year-old prince said Saudi Arabia could increase production by 1 million barrels per day.
The 30-year-old prince who is changing the world
"I think there's going to be one more beat down for prices that's really going to inflict the kind of pain the Saudis really want to [inflict] to the rest of the higher cost producers," Kilduff told CNBC's "Squawk Box."
OPEC's decision in 2014 to maintain high output levels rather than cut production to balance a market oversupplied by about 1.5 to 2 million bpd has been widely seen as a bid to pressure high-cost producers like U.S. shale oil drillers. U.S. production had surged through last year, contributing significantly to global oversupply.
The number of rigs in U.S. oil fields has fallen by nearly 80 percent from a peak of about 1,600 in October 2014 to roughly 350 last week. Oil production has fallen by about 600,000 bpd from a peak of nearly 9.7 million last year.
The Saudis are "not done with us yet. They are not done fixing our wagon yet," Kilduff said, referring to U.S. producers.
‹
*
‹
The Saudis are also targeting its regional rival Iran, which has ramped up oil exports after sanctions on the country were lifted, he said.
While a strike among oil workers in Kuwait is temporarily supporting oil prices, the downward pressures on crude futures will be "intense" as the Saudis compete for market share with other producers, he added.
The last key to the further pressure on oil prices could be slowdown in crude demand following the International Monetary Fund's downward revision to its world growth forecast last week, Kilduff said.
Sunday, April 17, 2016
Brazil president's impeachment - Financial Times
Brazil’s congress voted on Sunday evening to impeach President Dilma Rousseff, ushering in a new period of heightened political uncertainty in Latin America’s biggest country.
Pro-impeachment politicians erupted into cheers and patriotic songs when the vote tally reached 342 in favour of the motion — the two-thirds of the 513-seat lower house needed to approve the motion, compared with 126 against. The final result had yet to be counted.
The decision threatens to bring an abrupt end to 13 years of Ms Rousseff`s socialist Workers’ party, or PT, rule and allow her vice-president Michel Temer to form a new government.
The baton now passes to the senate, which analysts expect to open the formal impeachment process, essentially a political trial, in the first half of next month.
“Dilma has ruined our country,” said Ilmo Buzo, a fireman in São Paulo carrying a 3m-wide flag, who joined the hundreds of thousands of people who turned out to protest for and against impeachment across Brazil.
“Many people out here today even voted for the PT once … we believed in them but they tricked us,” he said. “They promised to fight corruption but power corrupted them!”
Markets are expected to applaud the decision when they open tomorrow amid investor optimism that any new government led by Mr Temer’s centrist PMDB will better manage the economy than Ms Rousseff`s PT.
Dogged by a corruption scandal in Petrobras, the state-owned oil company, Ms Rousseff has presided over what is expected to be the country’s worst recession in more than a century, with the International Monetary Fund predicting a 3.8 per cent economic contraction in Brazil this year after a similar decline last year.
“We don’t have the right to deliver a country to our children that is worst than what we received from our parents,” said Jovair Arantes, a lawmaker from the minority PTB party who authored a special congressional report recommending impeachment.
Mr Temer has promised to adopt more orthodox economic principles, including a balanced budget and removing structural impediments to Brazil’s long-term fiscal health, such as the indexation of salaries, benefits and other payments to inflation.
But the decision by congress to pass the impeachment process after a marathon three-day session of speeches and behind-the-scenes politicking also threatens to increase political risk in Brazil.
The lower house of congress must now pass the impeachment process to the senate, which is expected by this Friday to install a special commission on the impeachment process.
The commission will have 10 days to submit its own report on the proposal, which will then be put to a vote in the senate on about May 11. If the senate votes by a simple majority of its 81 members to accept the motion, the formal impeachment trial will begin.
Brazil's Rousseff faces impeachment
Play video
Ms Rousseff will be suspended for up to six months and Mr Temer will take over as acting president.
If two-thirds of the senate’s 81 members vote to impeach her in a session expected by the opposition to be held in late June, Mr Temer will lead the country until the next elections in 2018.
During the coming month, however, Ms Rousseff will still be president and will be able to use her office to try to persuade the senate to reject the impeachment motion by offering jobs and other financial incentives, opposition politicians fear.
Mr Temer, meanwhile, could face further strikes and protests by the PT’s militant support base in trade unions and social movements.
The Petrobras investigation will also continue, with major construction companies involved in the scandal believed to be negotiating new plea bargains that could implicate further members of Mr Temer’s PMDB party who are already accused of corruption.
Pro-impeachment politicians erupted into cheers and patriotic songs when the vote tally reached 342 in favour of the motion — the two-thirds of the 513-seat lower house needed to approve the motion, compared with 126 against. The final result had yet to be counted.
The decision threatens to bring an abrupt end to 13 years of Ms Rousseff`s socialist Workers’ party, or PT, rule and allow her vice-president Michel Temer to form a new government.
The baton now passes to the senate, which analysts expect to open the formal impeachment process, essentially a political trial, in the first half of next month.
“Dilma has ruined our country,” said Ilmo Buzo, a fireman in São Paulo carrying a 3m-wide flag, who joined the hundreds of thousands of people who turned out to protest for and against impeachment across Brazil.
“Many people out here today even voted for the PT once … we believed in them but they tricked us,” he said. “They promised to fight corruption but power corrupted them!”
Markets are expected to applaud the decision when they open tomorrow amid investor optimism that any new government led by Mr Temer’s centrist PMDB will better manage the economy than Ms Rousseff`s PT.
Dogged by a corruption scandal in Petrobras, the state-owned oil company, Ms Rousseff has presided over what is expected to be the country’s worst recession in more than a century, with the International Monetary Fund predicting a 3.8 per cent economic contraction in Brazil this year after a similar decline last year.
“We don’t have the right to deliver a country to our children that is worst than what we received from our parents,” said Jovair Arantes, a lawmaker from the minority PTB party who authored a special congressional report recommending impeachment.
Mr Temer has promised to adopt more orthodox economic principles, including a balanced budget and removing structural impediments to Brazil’s long-term fiscal health, such as the indexation of salaries, benefits and other payments to inflation.
But the decision by congress to pass the impeachment process after a marathon three-day session of speeches and behind-the-scenes politicking also threatens to increase political risk in Brazil.
The lower house of congress must now pass the impeachment process to the senate, which is expected by this Friday to install a special commission on the impeachment process.
The commission will have 10 days to submit its own report on the proposal, which will then be put to a vote in the senate on about May 11. If the senate votes by a simple majority of its 81 members to accept the motion, the formal impeachment trial will begin.
Brazil's Rousseff faces impeachment
Play video
Ms Rousseff will be suspended for up to six months and Mr Temer will take over as acting president.
If two-thirds of the senate’s 81 members vote to impeach her in a session expected by the opposition to be held in late June, Mr Temer will lead the country until the next elections in 2018.
During the coming month, however, Ms Rousseff will still be president and will be able to use her office to try to persuade the senate to reject the impeachment motion by offering jobs and other financial incentives, opposition politicians fear.
Mr Temer, meanwhile, could face further strikes and protests by the PT’s militant support base in trade unions and social movements.
The Petrobras investigation will also continue, with major construction companies involved in the scandal believed to be negotiating new plea bargains that could implicate further members of Mr Temer’s PMDB party who are already accused of corruption.
Saturday, April 16, 2016
China record steel output - Bloomberg
China's Giant Steel Industry Just Churned Out Record Supply
Bloomberg News
April 15, 2016 — 12:16 PM AEST
Updated on April 15, 2016 — 5:43 PM AEST
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* Steel production rises in March, while quarterly figure drops
* `This is a significant increase,' says CRU Group's Bai
The world’s biggest steel producer pushed output to a record in March as mills in China fired up plants to take advantage of a price surge since the start of the year that’s rescued profit margins.
Output rose 2.9 percent to 70.65 million metric tons from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday. That’s the highest ever, according to data from state-owned researcher Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. Still, for the first quarter, supply fell 3.2 percent to 192 million tons.
The country’s steelmakers are ramping up output after cuts at the end of 2015 fueled a major price surge that has rippled out to world markets. The mills’ busiest-ever month came as figures showed that China’s economy stabilized, aided by a rebound in the property market. Last year, the country’s steel output shrank for the first time since 1981 as demand contracted and mills battled surging losses and too much capacity, and forecasters including Australia’s government expect a further decline in 2016.
“It’s normal to see higher output in March but this is a significant increase,” said Kevin Bai, a Beijing-based researcher at consultancy CRU Group. “Right now, the mills are making money. The market is still relatively tight and this has encouraged some producers to return.”
Surging Prices
The domestic price of benchmark hot-rolled sheet has surged 45 percent this year, while rebar futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange advanced 30 percent. The increase has aided mills’ profitability even as iron ore prices rallied 36 percent in 2016.
The steel rally will soon end as Chinese mills lift output and traders end a flurry of restocking, HSBC Holdings Plc analysts said in a note on Thursday. China accounts for about half of global supply, with output used in everything from cars to skyscrapers.
The rise in Chinese output in March, coupled with figures earlier this week that showed a 30 percent increase in export volumes, will be a further concern to a beleaguered global steel industry. China exported a record amount last year, triggering a rise in trade tensions, battering profits at world producers and forcing India’s Tata Steel Ltd. to offload its ailing U.K. business.
Floor Space
The gross domestic product figures showed Asia’s top economy grew 6.7 percent in the first quarter, in line with expectations. Major steel-using sectors showed improvement as new floor space under construction expanded 19.2 percent in the quarter on-year while automobile output rose 8.9 percent in March.
Most observers still expect China’s steel production and demand to drop this year as policy makers pivot away from heavy industry. Output will probably decline to 781 million tons this year from 806 million in 2015, according a projection from Australia, the world’s largest shipper of iron ore.
Steel rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 1 percent on Friday to trim its weekly advance to 4.7 percent, while iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped the most this month by 2.2 percent.
China’s aluminum industry, also the world’s biggest and facing overcapacity, followed a similar dynamic to steel in the first quarter. Production of primary aluminum rose 2.7 percent to 2.62 million tons in March from a year earlier, while output was 2 percent lower at 7.34 million tons for the three months. Aluminum was unchanged on the Shanghai Futures Exchange after posting its highest close in nearly seven months on Thursday.
Bloomberg News
April 15, 2016 — 12:16 PM AEST
Updated on April 15, 2016 — 5:43 PM AEST
Share on FacebookShare on WhatsApp
* Steel production rises in March, while quarterly figure drops
* `This is a significant increase,' says CRU Group's Bai
The world’s biggest steel producer pushed output to a record in March as mills in China fired up plants to take advantage of a price surge since the start of the year that’s rescued profit margins.
Output rose 2.9 percent to 70.65 million metric tons from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday. That’s the highest ever, according to data from state-owned researcher Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. Still, for the first quarter, supply fell 3.2 percent to 192 million tons.
The country’s steelmakers are ramping up output after cuts at the end of 2015 fueled a major price surge that has rippled out to world markets. The mills’ busiest-ever month came as figures showed that China’s economy stabilized, aided by a rebound in the property market. Last year, the country’s steel output shrank for the first time since 1981 as demand contracted and mills battled surging losses and too much capacity, and forecasters including Australia’s government expect a further decline in 2016.
“It’s normal to see higher output in March but this is a significant increase,” said Kevin Bai, a Beijing-based researcher at consultancy CRU Group. “Right now, the mills are making money. The market is still relatively tight and this has encouraged some producers to return.”
Surging Prices
The domestic price of benchmark hot-rolled sheet has surged 45 percent this year, while rebar futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange advanced 30 percent. The increase has aided mills’ profitability even as iron ore prices rallied 36 percent in 2016.
The steel rally will soon end as Chinese mills lift output and traders end a flurry of restocking, HSBC Holdings Plc analysts said in a note on Thursday. China accounts for about half of global supply, with output used in everything from cars to skyscrapers.
The rise in Chinese output in March, coupled with figures earlier this week that showed a 30 percent increase in export volumes, will be a further concern to a beleaguered global steel industry. China exported a record amount last year, triggering a rise in trade tensions, battering profits at world producers and forcing India’s Tata Steel Ltd. to offload its ailing U.K. business.
Floor Space
The gross domestic product figures showed Asia’s top economy grew 6.7 percent in the first quarter, in line with expectations. Major steel-using sectors showed improvement as new floor space under construction expanded 19.2 percent in the quarter on-year while automobile output rose 8.9 percent in March.
Most observers still expect China’s steel production and demand to drop this year as policy makers pivot away from heavy industry. Output will probably decline to 781 million tons this year from 806 million in 2015, according a projection from Australia, the world’s largest shipper of iron ore.
Steel rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 1 percent on Friday to trim its weekly advance to 4.7 percent, while iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped the most this month by 2.2 percent.
China’s aluminum industry, also the world’s biggest and facing overcapacity, followed a similar dynamic to steel in the first quarter. Production of primary aluminum rose 2.7 percent to 2.62 million tons in March from a year earlier, while output was 2 percent lower at 7.34 million tons for the three months. Aluminum was unchanged on the Shanghai Futures Exchange after posting its highest close in nearly seven months on Thursday.
Friday, April 15, 2016
Bank of England warning on Brexit - The Independent
The Bank of England has issued its starkest warning yet over the consequences of Brexit for the British economy, stating that the country would be likely to face a long period of uncertainty if it left the EU, that would dampen demand and impact on UK assets.
Minutes from the latest meeting of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee also state that the looming referendum is already having a dampening effect on the economy, noting that many major capital spending decisions and property transactions were being delayed, pending the outcome of the vote.
Its warning, which was roundly criticised by the Leave campaign, came as the former Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling, who presided over the UK’s response to the 2008 global financial crisis, said that “dark clouds” were again “gathering on our horizon” and slammed Brexit campaigners for “turning a blind eye to credible warnings of economic disaster”.
In its minutes, the Bank of England said that a vote to leave the EU would “result in an extended period of uncertainty about the economic outlook including about the prospects for export growth”.
“This uncertainty would be likely to push down on demand in the short run…(and) have significant implications for asset prices, in particular the exchange rate.”
In a further warning, the Lloyds Banking Group became the first commercial bank to speak out officially on the referendum, stating that a vote to leave would cause short-term “economic uncertainty”.
However, the Bank’s statement added that the decision was “a matter for the UK electorate” and that the long-term impact was “unclear” because of uncertainty over the UK’s future relationship with Europe in the event of Brexit.
The trio of economic warnings will be welcomed by the Government, which has made financial stability a key pillar of its argument for backing a Remain vote.
Brexit campaigners have branded the approach “Project Fear”. Conservative MP Philip Davies accused Bank of England governor Mark Carney of “diminishing himself” with the Bank’s latest statement.
And John Longworth, chairman of the official campaign group Vote Leave’s business council, criticised Lloyds for its former support for the UK joining the Euro, 20 years ago.
“They were wrong then and they are wrong now,” he said. “What right do multinationals have to lecture us? The EU may work for the handful of large multinational banks that can afford the reams of red tape, but it will be the dynamic SMEs that will benefit if we Vote Leave on 23 June.”
However, in his speech on the EU, Mr Darling, who chaired the Better Together campaign during the Scottish Referendum, condemned the Brexit camp for failing to explain what form a new deal with the EU would take, branding their campaign “Project Fantasy”.
“They can’t guarantee trade without tariffs, which would push prices up. They can’t guarantee investors won’t leave Britain, risking jobs. They can’t guarantee our service sector will have free access to Europe, hitting growth…They are offering a fantasy future where we keep all the benefits of being in Europe without being part of the single market,” he said.
With the official EU campaigning period beginning today economics and security remain the two key battlegrounds.
Downing Street, which has argued that remaining in the EU makes Britain safer, welcomed a vote in the European Parliament which will pave the way for the bloc’s 28 member states to share airline passenger name records data, to assist in the fight against international crime and terrorism.
The Prime Minister’s spokesperson said: “This is something we have been calling for for a long time, particularly in wake of the rise in terror attacks that we have seen.
“Today’s vote shows that Britain can benefit and be safer staying in a reformed EU.”
Downing Street insisted that were no guarantees that Britain would be able to gain access to the EU-wide data in the event of Brexit.
Minutes from the latest meeting of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee also state that the looming referendum is already having a dampening effect on the economy, noting that many major capital spending decisions and property transactions were being delayed, pending the outcome of the vote.
Its warning, which was roundly criticised by the Leave campaign, came as the former Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling, who presided over the UK’s response to the 2008 global financial crisis, said that “dark clouds” were again “gathering on our horizon” and slammed Brexit campaigners for “turning a blind eye to credible warnings of economic disaster”.
In its minutes, the Bank of England said that a vote to leave the EU would “result in an extended period of uncertainty about the economic outlook including about the prospects for export growth”.
“This uncertainty would be likely to push down on demand in the short run…(and) have significant implications for asset prices, in particular the exchange rate.”
In a further warning, the Lloyds Banking Group became the first commercial bank to speak out officially on the referendum, stating that a vote to leave would cause short-term “economic uncertainty”.
However, the Bank’s statement added that the decision was “a matter for the UK electorate” and that the long-term impact was “unclear” because of uncertainty over the UK’s future relationship with Europe in the event of Brexit.
The trio of economic warnings will be welcomed by the Government, which has made financial stability a key pillar of its argument for backing a Remain vote.
Brexit campaigners have branded the approach “Project Fear”. Conservative MP Philip Davies accused Bank of England governor Mark Carney of “diminishing himself” with the Bank’s latest statement.
And John Longworth, chairman of the official campaign group Vote Leave’s business council, criticised Lloyds for its former support for the UK joining the Euro, 20 years ago.
“They were wrong then and they are wrong now,” he said. “What right do multinationals have to lecture us? The EU may work for the handful of large multinational banks that can afford the reams of red tape, but it will be the dynamic SMEs that will benefit if we Vote Leave on 23 June.”
However, in his speech on the EU, Mr Darling, who chaired the Better Together campaign during the Scottish Referendum, condemned the Brexit camp for failing to explain what form a new deal with the EU would take, branding their campaign “Project Fantasy”.
“They can’t guarantee trade without tariffs, which would push prices up. They can’t guarantee investors won’t leave Britain, risking jobs. They can’t guarantee our service sector will have free access to Europe, hitting growth…They are offering a fantasy future where we keep all the benefits of being in Europe without being part of the single market,” he said.
With the official EU campaigning period beginning today economics and security remain the two key battlegrounds.
Downing Street, which has argued that remaining in the EU makes Britain safer, welcomed a vote in the European Parliament which will pave the way for the bloc’s 28 member states to share airline passenger name records data, to assist in the fight against international crime and terrorism.
The Prime Minister’s spokesperson said: “This is something we have been calling for for a long time, particularly in wake of the rise in terror attacks that we have seen.
“Today’s vote shows that Britain can benefit and be safer staying in a reformed EU.”
Downing Street insisted that were no guarantees that Britain would be able to gain access to the EU-wide data in the event of Brexit.
Thursday, April 14, 2016
IMF down grades global outlook - Economist
IS THERE a global economic crisis on the horizon? Probably not. Is the world in danger of falling into recession? Not soon. Yet the IMF’s latest update of its forecasts is nevertheless resolutely downbeat. Speaking this week in Washington, DC, its chief economist, Maurice Obstfeld, outlined yet another downward revision to its prediction for global GDP growth. It is likely that the next revision will again be down. One of the big threats to the world economy, he said, is from “non-economic risks”—fund-speak for grubby politics. A world economy stuck in the doldrums, he cautioned, may be a perilous place politically.
The actual forecasts are far from horrible. The fund nudged down its estimate of global growth for 2016 from 3.4% to 3.2%. That is still a shade faster than in 2015. The revisions are broad-based: America, Europe and the emerging world as a bloc all saw similar downgrades (see chart). The forecast for sub-Saharan Africa was pared back the most, in large part because of a gloomier outlook for oil-rich Nigeria, the continent’s bigest economy. The recent recovery in crude prices will take some pressure off oil producers, but “we won’t be seeing prices at the $100 a barrel level for some time, if ever,” said Mr Obstfeld. Of biggish economies, only China escaped a downgrade. The fund is more confident than it was in January that stimulus measures there will work. But there is a concern about the quality of China’s growth, said Mr Obstfeld, as fresh credit is directed towards sputtering industries.
Related topics
* Europe
* World politics
* Chinese politics
* Asia-Pacific politics
* China
The scenario the fund seems most concerned about is a steady slide in global GDP growth that feeds on itself by discouraging investment, thereby exacerbating political tensions, which in turn make fixing the economy even harder. Brazil shows how a bad economy can be made worse by political paralysis. Low growth might add to the “rising tide of inward-looking nationalism” in the rich world, said Mr Obstfeld. Politics in America is moving against free trade. And there are various threats to Europe beyond the perennial problem of Greece. The refugee crisis has already put pressure on the European Union’s open-borders policy and there is a “real possibility” that Britain might leave the EU.
The IMF has some familiar remedies for the global economy: keep monetary policy loose, augment it with fiscal stimulus where possible and add some pro-growth reforms to the mix. Such action is needed to insure against the risks the fund identifies. But the world should also be making contingency plans for a co-ordinated response if a financial shock hits. “There is no longer much room for error,” said Mr Obstfeld, with a certain weariness.
From the print edition: Finance and economics
The actual forecasts are far from horrible. The fund nudged down its estimate of global growth for 2016 from 3.4% to 3.2%. That is still a shade faster than in 2015. The revisions are broad-based: America, Europe and the emerging world as a bloc all saw similar downgrades (see chart). The forecast for sub-Saharan Africa was pared back the most, in large part because of a gloomier outlook for oil-rich Nigeria, the continent’s bigest economy. The recent recovery in crude prices will take some pressure off oil producers, but “we won’t be seeing prices at the $100 a barrel level for some time, if ever,” said Mr Obstfeld. Of biggish economies, only China escaped a downgrade. The fund is more confident than it was in January that stimulus measures there will work. But there is a concern about the quality of China’s growth, said Mr Obstfeld, as fresh credit is directed towards sputtering industries.
Related topics
* Europe
* World politics
* Chinese politics
* Asia-Pacific politics
* China
The scenario the fund seems most concerned about is a steady slide in global GDP growth that feeds on itself by discouraging investment, thereby exacerbating political tensions, which in turn make fixing the economy even harder. Brazil shows how a bad economy can be made worse by political paralysis. Low growth might add to the “rising tide of inward-looking nationalism” in the rich world, said Mr Obstfeld. Politics in America is moving against free trade. And there are various threats to Europe beyond the perennial problem of Greece. The refugee crisis has already put pressure on the European Union’s open-borders policy and there is a “real possibility” that Britain might leave the EU.
The IMF has some familiar remedies for the global economy: keep monetary policy loose, augment it with fiscal stimulus where possible and add some pro-growth reforms to the mix. Such action is needed to insure against the risks the fund identifies. But the world should also be making contingency plans for a co-ordinated response if a financial shock hits. “There is no longer much room for error,” said Mr Obstfeld, with a certain weariness.
From the print edition: Finance and economics
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
New Facebook features coming - TIME
Posted: 11 Apr 2016 10:59 AM PDT
Facebook’s future ambitions will be on full display at the company’s annual F8 developer conference, taking place on April 12 and 13.
The Menlo Park, Calif. firm began life as a way for college students to connect. Over a decade later, it wants a slice of everything we do online, from booking airline flights to watching cat videos. After all, the more Facebook knows about our Internet behavior, the more attractive it looks to big-spending advertisers.
Facebook should make its future plans more clear at F8. Here’s what to expect from the conference.
Chat Bots
Messenger bots aren’t new — think SmarterChild, from the AIM days. But Facebook and other firms are betting they’ll see a big renaissance thanks to improved artificial intelligence and other factors. The firm is expected to announce new tools that will help businesses create their own “chatbots” for Facebook Messenger, which could handle customer service queries, process transactions or help with marketing campaigns.
Chatbots are already alive and well on Messenger performing a variety of tasks. Disney built a Miss Piggy bot that chats with fans of her Facebook Page in order to promote ABC’s Muppets show. Uber’s bot helps users hail rides from within Facebook’s app. And KLM Royal Dutch Airlines just launched the first airline bot.
Facebook’s hope is that chatbots will keep more users glued to its app, where it can profit from their attention. The firm won’t make money from bots right away. But if they take off, Facebook could start taking a slice of other companies’ transactions on the platform. That would help Facebook finally monetize e-commerce, which it has largely failed to do. For Messenger bots to succeed, Facebook will have to convince users it’s easier to chat with a robot than open up another app.
Live Video
Again, online live-streaming is not a new innovation. But Facebook’s massive scale is bringing new life to the format via Live, the company’s new instant broadcasting feature. Facebook unleashed a torrent of Live updates last week, including a world map showing livestreams as they’re happening and a video portal that makes it easier for people to find Live videos after they’ve disappeared from the News Feed.
Currently, Facebook’s Live videos can only be shot using a smartphone. Facebook may announce the ability to shoot using higher-quality cameras at F8, according to Recode. That could help the company entice more media companies, especially from the world of television, to commit significant resources to Live. Already some unusual videos have managed to attract large audiences. A BuzzFeed stream of a watermelon exploding under pressure from rubber bands gained 800,000 live viewers.
Virtual Reality
Facebook-owned Oculus VR just released its Rift virtual reality headset, so it’s likely Facebook will be crowing about VR’s potential to change the way we communicate. F8’s schedule includes multiple sessions dedicated to optimizing optimizing 360-degree video for the Rift, so it’s possible Facebook will sneak in an announcement or two related to the format.
Facebook’s future ambitions will be on full display at the company’s annual F8 developer conference, taking place on April 12 and 13.
The Menlo Park, Calif. firm began life as a way for college students to connect. Over a decade later, it wants a slice of everything we do online, from booking airline flights to watching cat videos. After all, the more Facebook knows about our Internet behavior, the more attractive it looks to big-spending advertisers.
Facebook should make its future plans more clear at F8. Here’s what to expect from the conference.
Chat Bots
Messenger bots aren’t new — think SmarterChild, from the AIM days. But Facebook and other firms are betting they’ll see a big renaissance thanks to improved artificial intelligence and other factors. The firm is expected to announce new tools that will help businesses create their own “chatbots” for Facebook Messenger, which could handle customer service queries, process transactions or help with marketing campaigns.
Chatbots are already alive and well on Messenger performing a variety of tasks. Disney built a Miss Piggy bot that chats with fans of her Facebook Page in order to promote ABC’s Muppets show. Uber’s bot helps users hail rides from within Facebook’s app. And KLM Royal Dutch Airlines just launched the first airline bot.
Facebook’s hope is that chatbots will keep more users glued to its app, where it can profit from their attention. The firm won’t make money from bots right away. But if they take off, Facebook could start taking a slice of other companies’ transactions on the platform. That would help Facebook finally monetize e-commerce, which it has largely failed to do. For Messenger bots to succeed, Facebook will have to convince users it’s easier to chat with a robot than open up another app.
Live Video
Again, online live-streaming is not a new innovation. But Facebook’s massive scale is bringing new life to the format via Live, the company’s new instant broadcasting feature. Facebook unleashed a torrent of Live updates last week, including a world map showing livestreams as they’re happening and a video portal that makes it easier for people to find Live videos after they’ve disappeared from the News Feed.
Currently, Facebook’s Live videos can only be shot using a smartphone. Facebook may announce the ability to shoot using higher-quality cameras at F8, according to Recode. That could help the company entice more media companies, especially from the world of television, to commit significant resources to Live. Already some unusual videos have managed to attract large audiences. A BuzzFeed stream of a watermelon exploding under pressure from rubber bands gained 800,000 live viewers.
Virtual Reality
Facebook-owned Oculus VR just released its Rift virtual reality headset, so it’s likely Facebook will be crowing about VR’s potential to change the way we communicate. F8’s schedule includes multiple sessions dedicated to optimizing optimizing 360-degree video for the Rift, so it’s possible Facebook will sneak in an announcement or two related to the format.
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
China hospitals ticket touts problem - Reuter
As day breaks, hundreds of patients wait to see doctors in a line that snakes around the Peking Union hospital in Beijing. Many will wait in vain - "scalpers" like Yu Wei have already illegally bought and sold appointment tickets for the day ahead.
Yu, 32, makes a living touting the tickets that Chinese hospitals sell in advance for consultations. His tickets will get a patient in front of a doctor in two days, he says, compared with a wait that can be up to a fortnight.
Dodging passing police patrols as part of his daily routine, Yu charges 850 yuan ($131) for a "special care" appointment ticket - almost three times the face value. He told Reuters he keeps 200 yuan from each sale, with the rest of the profit going to hospital insiders who he said help him secure the tickets.
"The city's upper middle class are always willing to pay this amount or even higher - as long as they can get an appointment," Yu said, speaking between frequent phone calls that he said came from would-be clients. In the background, other scalpers competed for custom, shouting out their prices.
The street crime casts light on the scale of the challenge President Xi Jinping faces as he looks to overhaul a creaking and underfunded public health system to deliver on a promise of affordable and accessible care for all.
In line with this drive, authorities have tried to crack down on healthcare corruption and police say they have detained some 240 scalpers in Beijing alone this year. Many patients and doctors say, though, the time-served practice is just a symptom of deeper issues: a dearth of doctors and low salaries meaning graft is endemic.
"Scalpers are a real headache for us," a spokeswoman for the Peking Union hospital surnamed Chen told Reuters by phone. "There's a crackdown on them, but it's a hard problem to cure."
The spokeswoman added the hospital and its doctors were victims of scalpers and were not involved in the practice.
DOZENS OF SCALPERS
A viral video earlier this year of a woman with her sick mother raging against scalpers brought a public outcry and calls for arrests and tough jail sentences. (here)
Authorities have promised to intensify their crackdown. But when Reuters visited hospitals in Shanghai and Beijing, dozens of scalpers operated in plain sight, loudly offering tickets for sale.
A spokesman at the Beijing city health department said police needed to "strengthen" their efforts, and it would take some time to see any real results. China's national health ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Feng Jianqi, a police officer involved in leading the crackdown on scalpers in Beijing, said the police could not resolve the issue alone. Part of the problem was that so many patients wanted to see the same doctors, he said.
"It's just not realistic to totally eradicate scalpers. It's just too hard," he told Reuters by phone.
The problem is acute for patients like Cao Dongxian. The middle-aged school teacher traveled to Beijing in May last year from his home in Shandong province after local doctors refused to carry out a risky intestinal cancer operation.
State insurance coverage is limited in China, meaning patients often have to pay a large part if healthcare costs themselves, especially those with major long-term diseases like cancer or diabetes.
Keen to avoid paying scalpers, Cao spent months queuing in hospital lines for repeat tests before doctors eventually said his cancer needed an urgent operation. Cao was then told he would have to begin queuing again: this time for a hospital bed.
"It was October by the time I got to have my operation ... more than four months," Cao said. "On top of that your body's in pain - it really hurts."
'MARKET PRICE'
In hindsight, Cao said he wished he had gone to scalpers straight away. Doctors also appear resigned to the practice, as wealth spreads in China and patients accept the reality that paying more will bring speedier treatment.
"(Basic) appointment fees don't reflect the economic value of doctors' skills and experience," said Wu Yuan, an eye doctor at the Peking University First Hospital in Beijing.
"Scalpers are simply selling the doctor's appointment at a price the market is prepared to pay," Wu said. He said the practice was routine but that he had no knowledge of any doctor involvement in ticket resales.
Even as China's hospitals suffer, the broader market for drugs and services is a lure for firms like e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding and hospital operator Phoenix Healthcare, attracted by a wider healthcare bill that is set to hit $1.3 trillion by 2020.
For patients like Cao or Zhang Pengyu, a 38-year-old realtor from the outskirts of Beijing, scalpers are source of frustration and anger, but sometimes a necessary evil.
He waited unsuccessfully for three nights to see an ear, nose and throat doctor at Beijing Tongren Hospital. He finally gave in to scalpers, paying 3,000 yuan for a 10-minute appointment that should have cost just 200 yuan.
"I wanted to queue myself and not pay so much money, but I just couldn't wait any more. I didn't have time," said Zhang.
(Reporting by SHANGHAI newsroom and Adam Jourdan; Additional reporting by Elaine Tan in MANILA and Natalie Thomas in BEIJING; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)
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