Thursday, January 22, 2015

ECB unveils massive QE boost for eurozone - BBC MEWS


The European Central Bank (ECB) will inject at least €1.1 trillion (£834bn) into the ailing eurozone economy.
The ECB will buy €60bn bonds each month from banks until the end of September 2016, or even longer, in what is called quantitative easing (QE).
QE in theory increases the supply of money, something that keeps interest rates low and encourages borrowing and therefore spending.
The news sent the euro to an 11-year low against the against the US dollar.
In late afternoon US trading the euro was down 2% at $1.1367. It also fell 1.1% against the pound to be worth 75.82, or €1.3187. It has lost 6% of its value so far this year.
Stalling
Record low eurozone rates have failed to boost the 19-country euro area.
The ECB also said it would keep eurozone interest rates at 0.05%, a record low.
Rates have been at that level since September 2014. 
ECB president Mario Draghi said the programme would begin in March.
Earlier this month, figures showed the eurozone was suffering deflation, creating the danger that growth would stall as businesses and consumers shut their wallets, as they waited for prices to fall.
Mr Draghi said the programme would be conducted "until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation", which the ECB has pledged to maintain at close to 2%.
Shares rose in response to the news and bond yields, which are linked to the amount governments pay to borrow, fell, particularly those of the weakest countries including Italy, Spain and Portugal.
QE graphic
Lowering the cost of borrowing should encourage banks to lend and eurozone businesses and consumers to spend more.
It is a strategy that appears to have worked in the US, which undertook a huge programme of QE between 2008 and 2014.
The UK and Japan have also had sizeable bond-buying programmes.
But some economists question what impact, longer term, this move can have. "Economically it is irrelevant but at least markets have had fun selling the euro and buying bank equities and peripheral bonds," said Alastair Winter, chief economist at Daniel Stewart.

Euro v US Dollar

LAST UPDATED AT 23 JAN 2015, 06:10*CHART SHOWS LOCAL TIMEEUR:USD intraday chart
€1 buyschange%
1.1320-
-0.00
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-0.37
'Sizeable' slack
Mr Draghi said the ECB's own programme had been taken because it was necessary to "address heightened risks of too prolonged a period of low inflation".
Mr Draghi said there had been a "large majority" on the ECB's governing council in favour of triggering the bond-buying programme now - "so large that we did not need to take a vote".
Up until now, the ECB has resisted QE, although Mr Draghi reassured markets in July 2012 by saying he would be prepared to do whatever it took to maintain financial stability in the eurozone, nicknamed his "big bazooka" speech.
Since then, the case for quantitative easing has been growing. 
In advance of the ECB's announcement, there had been speculation that the central bank would not actually buy any bonds itself, but would invite the central banks of eurozone member governments to do so.
line
Analysis: Nigel Cassidy, Europe business correspondent, Brussels
Arriving somewhat breathless for his news conference, thanks to broken lifts, Mr Draghi finally produced a QE package for Europe that received an initial thumbs-up from the financial markets. In cash terms, it was just slightly more than some were expecting - but not that much more. 
On the question of sharing some of the risks of his bond-buying spree with the 19 national banks, Mr Draghi came out fighting, saying such arrangements were quite normal and starting to sound irritated when his questioners kept bringing it up. Yet for many, the eurozone is not a true monetary union if its liabilities are not shared equally. 
It all showed that Germany's deep reservations about the dangers of printing money could not be overcome in Frankfurt. Yet once again, a European institution has reach an 11th hour compromise which will be considered and dissected by the markets over the next few days. 
line
In the event, Mr Draghi said only 20% of the new asset purchases would require national central banks to shoulder risks outside their own borders.
But he added: "The modalities, the amounts, the rules, the limits that you just asked me about have been decided here in Frankfurt. So the governing council is the sole decision-maker and the decisions are meant to affect monetary and financial conditions across the whole euro area."
'Shock and awe'
The Italian Finance Minister, Pier Carlo Padoan, welcomed Mr Draghi's "ambitious strategy", which he said was "good for Europe".
Speaking in Davos to BBC economics editor Robert Peston, he said it would "push away any risk of deflation" and provide "an injection of confidence to markets".
But he added that it was "just one element" of efforts to restore the eurozone's economic fortunes. Structural reforms and further single market integration were also necessary, he said.
"Mario Draghi has been left with little choice than to begin a more robust than expected quantitative easing programme in a bid to awake the economies of the eurozone from their slumber," said Dennis de Jong, boss of trading site UFX.com.
"This play is seen by many as the last roll of the dice for the beleaguered euro. QE has had some success in the US and UK, but with such a patchwork of economies and banking systems in the eurozone, the jury is very much out."
Nancy Curtin, chief investment officer of Close Brothers Asset Management, said: "European QE is set to start with a bang rather than a whimper, a fact that will be well received by investors. 
"However, the eurozone is far from out of the woods. Structural economic issues remain, and all eyes now turn to the Greek election, with concerns that the result may eventually lead to a default and exit from the monetary union - a move which could send shockwaves through investors in the eurozone."

Monday, January 19, 2015

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR DEVELOPS AN IMAGE PROBLEM - ANZ Bank research


AUD DEVELOPS AN IMAGE PROBLEM
  • With the RBA ( Reserve Bank of Australia ) back in play, domestic factors will once again become a critical element in determining the direction of the AUD.
  • The impact of domestic factors on the AUD will be greater than the sum of their parts as Australia starts to suffer from an image problem.
  • We downgrade our AUD forecasts for the end of 2015 from USD0.82 to USD0.74, and for the end of 2016 from USD0.80 to USD0.72. We also reassess our view on AUD/NZD and expect it to remain range bound around these historic lows.
    Overall, relative to last year, we think that the nuance around currency valuation dynamics will change and the question that will need to be raised is whether this is the year that the AUD undershoots fair value, and provides a net boost to the economy.
    We also think that the domestic economy will become a more important swing factor in the level of the currency this year as the RBA comes back into play after more than 12 months on the sideline.
    SHORT-TERM DYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT THE AUD IS FAIR, BUT FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTS CANNOT BE IGNORED
    Over both very short and medium-term time frames the AUD looks like it is trading at a level that aligns with model estimates.
    A more medium-term, static behavioural model suggests that the AUD has now declined sufficiently for the valuation gap that we highlighted last year to be largely closed.

This is another indication that we are trading at more fair levels, ie for the AUD to decline more rapidly than fundamentals in 2014 (and bring about the needed reversion) it had to disconnect from them. However, as we have now ‘caught up’, the future direction of the AUD has become far more contingent on the evolution of fundamentals.
As such, the AUD’s sensitivity to fundamentals is currently heightened, and this is likely to remain the case for much of the year.
This means that further moves in the AUD cannot be driven by valuation concerns. It will need to be driven by either a shift in fundamentals or because a case can be mounted that the AUD should be trading at a discount to what the fair value is suggesting.
SO, WHAT IS GOING TO DRIVE THE AUD FROM HERE?
All of this is not to say that the AUD is anywhere close to providing a positive competitiveness shock, or that a bullish case for the AUD can be mounted.

In fact, competitiveness concerns are a key reason why we remain in an environment in which downside overshoots to behavioural models remains a distinct possibility.
To remain short the AUD in the current environment one needs to identify something more compelling than international competitiveness.
CHANGING RATE DYNAMICS WILL CHANGE PERCEPTIONS...
Our new economic forecasts highlight that we expect the RBA to act more dovishly than the market is pricing, ie to cut rates in both March and May 2015. Current pricing suggests that the RBA will begin its easing cycle in the middle of the year, and likely cut twice. As such, the ANZ view has not been fully discounted into the market.
Further, our rates strategists are now forecasting that the bond spreads between rates for Australia and the US will compress to zero by the middle of this year (Figure 4), and for a short period actually turn negative, and this is certainly not a part of current consensus expectations.

These two factors together should be sufficient to drive the AUD to fresh lows. And while in a modelling sense this will only shave a couple of cents from fair value, we believe that for the AUD, this time, the impact of the shift will be greater than the sum of its parts.
...AND THE AUD WILL BE LEFT WITH AN IMAGE PROBLEM
We believe that the decline in term rates in particular will create an environment in which we can get an overshoot in the AUD relative to fair value.
To say that differently, we think that the market will begin to demand a higher risk premium to remain a buyer of Australian assets.
Over the past four years the risk premium on AUD assets has remained small (ie AUD assets have been viewed as safer investments than they were in the past) and has inadequately reflected the fact that the risks inherent in holding these assets have been rising.
Given this, it is increasingly likely that within our forecasts horizon we see a more rapid pricing of this risk premium.
Looking back, there were two key factors that investors used to justify the contraction in the risk premium. First, the Australian economy was growing more strongly than that of the US, and that its growth trajectory was tied to China, the core engine of global growth. And second, that the level of public debt was low, and that the yield that was on offer relative to that of other AAA credits was very attractive.
There is some potential that this is set to change. The Australian economy is now clearly underperforming, while the Chinese economy remains in the midst of a large and challenging structural adjustment.

Further, it needs to remember that the past four years have been the exception, not the rule. Prior to the crisis in Europe, the relationship between a country’s public debt situation and the level of its currency was of no concern.
What mattered were the levels of aggregate (private + household) debt and the size of the external liability that the country held (ie how much of the financing of the liability was at risk). On both of these count Australia scores far less flatteringly than on a simple measure of government indebtedness.
If, as ANZ Research expects, these broader issues come into focus, while at the same time the spread available on Australian government bonds (relative to the US) falls to zero, then we expect that the risk premium will widen once again, and the AUD will overshoot fundamentals.
This sort of deterioration in perception has occurred before. Around the year 2000, global investors were also dismissive of Australia’s fundamentals.

With a mining-based economy in a new technology driven world, Australia was seen as uncompetitive and ill-equipped to compete in the modern global economy.
Through that time the AUD traded consistently cheaply relative to fundamentals, and we think the episode demonstrates the importance of perception, and provides a reasonable blueprint for 2015.
By the end of 2015 we expect that the AUD will be trading at USD 0.74, and that in 2016, the prospects for a rebound look equally unlikely.

CONSEQUENCES FOR OUR VIEW ON AUD/NZD
While we continue to think that the relative economic divergence between the Australian and New Zealand economies is very well priced with the cross at 1.04, an overshoot for Australia that is driven by an image problem and more intangible factors means that the fundamentals are likely to be overlooked. This should keep the AUD/NZD around current levels for the foreseeable future.
Daniel Been
Daniel.Been@anz.com 

Saturday, January 17, 2015

9 Ways Daily Mindfulness Will Help You Succeed - TIME

http://time.com/3670202/daily-mindfulness/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29

    
Many of us are drawn to the peace and happiness promised by a life of mindfulness, but we often abandon it in our daily lives because practicing mindfulness can seem at odds with our desire to succeed.

But it doesn’t have to be.
Here are nine simple ways that incorporating mindfulness into your busy work life can actually help you succeed:

  1. Forgive and forget. Workplace politics are draining, and a waste of time. Don’t let yourself get sucked into drama. Save your mental energy for your own success by forgiving those who slight you, forgetting who said what about whom, and moving on to more important things.
  2. Breathe before you blast. Try not to shoot off emails when you’re angry. Take a deep breath first and reflect on what’s behind your anger. Anger-driven emails almost always do more harm than good, to sender and receiver alike.
  3. Stop being ‘judgy.’ Mistakes are an opportunity to learn, not an excuse to look at yourself or others with negativity. Assessing mistakes from a neutral perspective allows you and your team to grow from them. Harping on them only serves to bring you (and those around you) down.
  4. Do what you want. Mindfulness gurus often talk about the idea of “intention.” But what does intention really mean? It means to make sure you know why you’re doing what you’re doing. And to do what you want. If you feel like you are wasting time in your current occupation, stop doing it and start something new.
  5. Salute the sun. Starting your morning with a quiet mind will help you be more effective throughout the day. Carve out time in the mornings — before the day’s madness ensues — to do a few sun salutations, eat a leisurely breakfast, go for a jog or engage in whichever activity helps you to still your mind.
  6. Salute your enemies. The word “namaste” means “I bow to the divine in you.” Having respect for your enemies will help you learn from their strengths and be more objective about your own weaknesses. So salute your enemies. You may find yourself with fewer of them if you do.
  7. Take victory in stride. It’s important to celebrate milestones. But don’t get addicted to them. If you let yourself become too attached to your victories, you will be less able to cope with defeat. And the ability to persevere through failure is essential to success.
  8. Sleep more. According to the Dalai Lama, “Sleep is the best meditation.” Get more of it.
  9. Enjoy the journey. Life is short, and you will spend most of it working. Work can either be depressing, or it can be an incredible ride. It’s up to you. The more you enjoy what you do, the better you will be at it.

Friday, January 16, 2015

Xiaomi hits back at copycat allegations - CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102343384

Xiaomi hits back at copycat allegations

Hitting back at critics that labeled Xiaomi an "Apple copycat", vice president of international operations Hugo Barra said the company has "grown up", pointing to its latest smartphone – the Xiaomi Note – as proof. 
The rising smartphone star unveiled its new flagship phablet, the Xiaomi Note, at a launch event in Beijing on Thursday, taking direct aim at Apple and Samsung's large-screen offerings. 
"We have been working on the Xiaomi Note for 3 years – this is a product that was not designed in response to the iPhone 6 Plus or Galaxy Note 4 – it's been in the making for some time," Barra told CNBC on Friday. 
"We've been able to build an industrial design team and mechanical hardware engineering team that have had time to do a lot of independent thinking – and this is the first product [that is a result of that]," he said. 
Copycat?
Pulling a classic Apple move, the budget smartphone maker launched a cryptic ad campaign in the lead up to Thursday's launch, building suspense among its burgeoning fan base. 
During the launch, the company also drew direct comparisons between the specifications of its new phablet and the iPhone 6 Plus.
When asked why Xiaomi went so specifically after Apple's phone, Barra said: "All of our executives are engineers, and our audience is also engineers, geeks, people who really love specs. The reality is whatever product we announced, the one thing people would do is look across the entire ecosystem and compare, so we might as well do it ourselves." 
Copycat or not, Xiaomi was a disruptive force in the smartphone market in the past year, leapfrogging Lenovo and LG to become the world's third largest smartphone marker behind Samsung and Apple. 
Xiaomi held a 5.3 percent share of the global smartphone market in the third quarter of 2014, trailing Samsung and Apple, who have 23.8 percent and 12.0 percent shares, respectively, according to IDC. 
Growing Xiaomi's empire
While Xiaomi is working to increase its foothold in emerging markets, Barra says it has no plans to enter developed markets at the moment. 
Xiaomi forayed into Indonesia and India in 2014 and is looking at launching in Brazil, Mexico, Thailand and Vietnam next. 
"Those are markets where our strategy works very well: high specification products that can sell at very affordable prices," he said. 
"Entering markets like the U.S. and Europe require being really ready. These are incredibly competitive markets where you really have to have your marketing polished up. I think it will take us a couple of years."
Ansuya HarjaniWriter, CNBC Asia

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Back to the Future? Oil Replays 1980s Bust - Wall Street Journal

http://www.wsj.com/articles/back-to-the-future-oil-replays-1980s-bust-1421196361?mod=e2fb

Rise of Shale Extraction Speeds Output and Changes Equation for Producers


The discovery of oil from shale rocks means that U.S. output is faster paced. Drilling and hydraulically fracturing a well takes weeks, not years. 
By 
RUSSELL GOLD
Jan. 13, 2015 7:46 p.m. ET

A surge of oil from outside of the Middle East flooded global energy markets. The world-wide thirst for crude didn’t keep up. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stood by and watched as oil prices fell and then fell more.
Welcome to the world of oil in 2015—a repeat in surprising ways of the story 30 years ago. Between November 1985 and March 1986, the price of crude plunged by 67%. Between June 2014 and today, crude prices have fallen by 57% and could well head lower. 
ENLARGE
After the mid-1980s bust, it took nearly two decades for oil prices to rebound to pre-bust levels and remain there. Energy executives are now haunted by the question: Will it take as long this time?
The answer may lie in one enormous difference between today and 30 years ago: the speed of shale.
Before U.S. energy companies figured out how to pull oil from shale formations, petroleum projects often took years to execute. Two decades passed between a fisherman spotting a colorful slick floating off the coast of Mexico and oil flowing from the giant Cantarell project off the Yucatan Peninsula. It took nine years and billions of dollars to get crude moving from the North Slope of Alaska to markets.
Today, the discovery and development of oil from shale rocks means that oil output is faster paced and near at hand—in Texas and North Dakota, Colorado, Oklahoma, Wyoming, even Ohio. Drilling and hydraulically fracturing a well takes weeks, not years. An expensive well costs $10 million, compared with the billions needed to drill offshore wells and build associated infrastructure. Moreover, expenditure of both time and money are falling fast.
The oil field investment cycle has shortened. Wildcatters in Texas discovered the Eagle Ford Shale in 2008. Within five years, it was pumping a million barrels a day—thanks to an influx of capital that paid for drilling thousands of new wells. Each well roars into life and then drops off fast. Without constantly drilling new wells, these oil fields will peter out.

Faster-reacting shale production could help cut supply more quickly than in the past, restoring market balance without a decadeslong wait. The availability of so much new oil, housed in easy-to-tap shale formations, could also make price spikes less frequent.
But that doesn’t mean prices will rebound soon, or return to the triple-digit levels seen just months ago. Price pressure may need to remain on the U.S. oil industry and its lenders for months to rein in supply.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Monday it saw a “U-shaped” recovery with depressed prices until the market rebalances and prices rise in 2016. The firm said it expected U.S. crude to average $47.15 a barrel this year, down from a previous prediction of $73.75.
A year of low prices beats a decade, as far as the energy industry is concerned. But it is unclear exactly what will happen: shale-oil output has boomed only in the past five years—and faces its first downturn.
“No one has so far experienced what the actual consequences of a ‘stress test’ on U.S. production could be,” says Leonardo Maugeri, a scholar at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and a former top executive with the Italian oil giant EniSpA.
Even veteran oil traders are uncertain. “Sustained low prices will ultimately bring the market into balance,” Andrew Hall, who runs a $3 billion energy derivatives hedge fund, Astenbeck Capital Management LLC, wrote in a private letter to investors earlier this month which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. “But it is unclear how long that will take and what the new price equilibrium will be.”
Many economists and energy analysts believe that prices will probably rebound somewhat from current levels by the end of the year. The global benchmark for oil, currently $46.59, will “head back toward the $70 range and I suspect that will be sustainable for quite some time,” says Stephen P. A. Brown, an energy economist at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas and former economist with the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank.


The dollar increased in value in the early 1980s as the Federal Reserve wrung inflation out of the U.S. economy, but the Reagan Administration engineered a large devaluation in 1985 in agreement with other major economic powers. Between March 1985 and December 1987, the dollar lost 40% of its value against a basket of other major currencies. That stands in contrast to the current episode: The dollar rose more than 12% in 2014, compared with a basket of widely traded securities. 
During the last big supply-driven oil bust, demand had been muted for several years, in part because of conservation measures Americans embraced after the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s. The country adopted energy-efficiency standards for cars, while using oil to generate electricity fell out of favor.
Meanwhile, oil output outside OPEC grew rapidly. Production in the North Sea surged, as did output from China and Oman. Mexico began shipping more than one million barrels a day in 1981 from its Cantarell complex. Even the American oil industry had started pumping more oil from its high-cost oil fields.

Changing prices at a gas station in Toronto in February 1986. Between November 1985 and March 1986, the price of crude plunged by 67%. 
And so a glut developed. At first, as oil prices began retreating, Saudi Arabia tried to bolster prices by cutting its production, which fell from 10 million barrels a day in the early years of the decade to 2.3 million in August 1985, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Late that year, tired of losing market share to rising oil exporters, the Saudis threw in the towel and began pumping again—and so did the rest of OPEC.
Global oil prices went into free fall, declining from over $30 a barrel in November 1985 to nearly $10 by July 1986. The U.S. oil industry basically shut down. In late 1985, there were nearly 2,300 rigs drilling wells; a year later, there were barely 1,000.
Prices spiked upward a few years later, prompted by Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. But that didn’t last long, ending in 1991 once Operation Desert Storm pushed Iraq out of Kuwait and the fires set by retreating forces were put out. Afterward, prices remained low, bouncing between $15 and $25 until the end of the decade.
It wasn’t until about 2000 that supply began to struggle to keep up with rising demand. Global economic growth, especially in Asia, pushed demand for crude as the Chinese middle class began driving cars. Chinese oil imports, virtually nonexistent in 1985, have risen steadily ever since. On Tuesday, Chinese data hit a record of about seven million barrels a day.
Prices spiked in the summer of 2008, then plunged when the economy crashed and went into recession. But the price drop was brief and prices rebounded quickly. Today, demand for crude is growing, albeit slowly, around the world. The health of the global economy and Chinese appetite for fuel will have a significant impact on global and U.S. crude prices. An outside event—warfare or civil strife in a major crude-producing country—could raise prices again.
As in the past, Saudi Arabia is betting that low prices will force other producers to cut back. Falling prices will hurt U.S. output, but perhaps less than OPEC expected. The cost of producing oil from shale—especially in the new U.S. oil fields responsible for a huge upsurge in output—has been falling.
ConocoPhillips , a major U.S. oil producer, says it can make a profit on its U.S. shale wells as long as oil trades for more than $40 a barrel, a figure that has been falling in recent years. A Conoco spokesman said improved efficiency, better technology and a better understanding of the rocks helped the company reduce costs.

Which Oil Producers are Breaking Even?

And it is not alone. The expense of getting oil from the Eagle Ford Shale fell by about 15%, or $7.50 a barrel, last year, despite intense competition for rigs, truck drivers and oil-field services, says Pers Magnus Nysveen, head of analytics for Rystad Energy, a Norway-based global oil consultant. Costs could fall another 10% to 15% this year as some financially weak companies pull back and competition for services lessens.
“The key driver here is improved efficiency,” Mr. Nysveen says.
Companies like EOG Resources Inc. are drilling better wells faster. EOG said recently it takes 4.3 days to drill its average well in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas, down from 14.2 days in 2012. What’s more, as it drills more of them, it has figured out how to locate wells to get the highest oil output.
Combining lowering costs and increasing output means that EOG says it can drill wells at $40 per barrel in North Dakota, South Texas and West Texas, while still earning a 10% return. We “pride ourselves on being a very efficient operator,” Billy Helms, EOG’s head of exploration, said at a recent industry conference.
Since oil prices began to fall, many companies have cut their capital spending plan for 2015 and the number of drilling rigs in the U.S. has fallen. But output has continued to increase.
Mike Rothman, president of Cornerstone Analytics, says that given the decreasing costs of drilling, it is not clear when shale output in the U.S. will fall.
“How quick will the response in shale oil be to this drop in prices? That is a big open question,” he says. “With shale, you are dealing with something very different.”

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Syriza turns Greek oligarchs from taboo subject to economic priority - Financial Times

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6c55d1ba-980b-11e4-84d4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3OmjXWDmr

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Kerin Hope — Athens
They are Greece’s best-known tycoons, admired and loathed in equal measure for their vast wealth and deep political connections. While ordinary Greeks call them “diaplekomenoi” (the entangled ones) or “davatzides” (pimps), economists call them oligarchs because of their grip on the country’s business life. 
However they are described, their role in Greek politics and society is under scrutiny ahead of this month’s election.


The far-left Syriza party, which is tipped to win a snap general election on January 25, has declared war on the oligarchs if it comes to power. George Stathakis, the party’s shadow development minister, told the Financial Times last week that Syriza would end the practice of governments handing out television licences for free to their political friends and review contentious privatisation sales. Tackling the oligarchs’ grip on the economy “will be a priority” he said.
Such comments already mark a change from form in Greece, where the oligarchs’ influence has long been felt but seldom discussed — at least publicly.
“The real enemy to market competition in Greece is the oligarchy, but it’s a taboo subject — politicians don’t discuss it and the media don’t write about it,” says Aristides Hatzis, a professor of law and economics at Athens University.
One reason is that Greece’s private television channels along with influential news websites and daily newspapers are in many instances controlled by oligarchs with editorial influence.
A US embassy cable released by WikiLeaks said: “Greece’s private media outlets are owned by a small group of people who have made or inherited fortunes . . . and who are related by blood, marriage or adultery to political and government officials and/or other media and business magnates.”
Taming such figures will not be easy: No member of the close-knit oligarch community has yet been toppled by Greece’s seven-year economic crisis, even though their media outlets are believed by some analysts to have racked up almost €2bn in unserviced loans from local banks as advertising revenues collapsed and handouts from state-controlled companies disappeared. 
Still, they appear to have been weakened by the country’s severe recession and the fiscal constraints imposed by international creditors. 
“They’re still powerful but their activities have been affected by recent efforts to clamp down on tax avoidance, for example through offshore companies,” Mr Hatzis said.
The oligarchs’ political influence also stands to suffer when new legislation requiring political parties to produce audited accounts is implemented. One Athens-based economist, who declined to be identified, said it would be harder in future for any who funded politicians to keep them “on the payroll”. 
Greece has a long tradition of businesses relying on political contacts to push through deals — and of politicians seeking handouts from business to boost their electoral chances. 
Mr Hatzis calls it “a small country where trust is lacking and the rule of law is not well enforced.”
The scale of such dealing grew in the 1990s as Greece’s economy took off on the back of market liberalisation required by the EU and increased funding from Brussels for infrastructure and technology projects. 
Big contracts for EU-backed projects were shared among a small group of bidders. But occasional dust-ups over the largesse could spill into politics, sometimes with disastrous consequences. 
In one case, Constantine Mitsotakis, a reformist prime minister, blamed Socrates Kokkalis, the founder of Intracom, a telecoms equipment producer, for instigating the fall of his government in 1993 over the prospective sale of Greece’s state telecoms company OTE to a French group that would have used its own equipment supplier — a charge Mr Kokkalis denied. 
Intracom continued to sell equipment worth billions of euros to OTE, while its sister company Intralot provided automated gaming systems for OPAP, the state gambling monopoly. 
Mr Kokkalis’s influence expanded through the launch of a popular radio station run by his wife and the acquisition of Greece’s top football team, Olympiakos.
George Papandreou, the former socialist premier who resigned in 2011, also claimed he was brought down by oligarchs after a finance ministry campaign to tackle widespread fuel smuggling revealed a Balkanwide scam that cost Greece €3bn a year in lost taxes. 
“Several prominent bankers and industrialists were among those determined to see me go,” he told the FT.
The current generation of oligarchs, already well past normal retirement age, are gradually handing over their day-to-day operations to younger family members while retaining their power over politicians through handouts to finance their election campaigns and arranging access to television coverage.
Costas Bacouris, head of the Greek arm of Transparency International, the anti-sleaze watchdog, believes that — as ever — the oligarchs will try to adapt to changing circumstances. 
“They continue to wield influence but they’re taking a wait-and-see position with regard to future political developments,” Mr Bacouris says. “My understanding is that a number of them have been making contact with Syriza but it’s not yet clear with what outcome.”
Top oligarchs
Vardis Vardinoyannis: the 81-year-old patriarch of a Cretan family that controls MotorOil Hellas, Greece’s second-largest oil refinery, as well as a tanker fleet, a bunkering operation on Crete, an oil and gas exploration company and a five-star Athens hotel. The Vardinoyannis group controls one private television station, Star, and holds a minority stake in another, Mega Channel.
Michalis Sallas: the 64-year-old chairman of Piraeus Bank, which has become the largest Greek lender by taking over the healthy assets of two failed Cypriot banks and a Greek state-controlled bank during the crisis. A founding member of the PanHellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok) and former econometrics professor at Athens Panteios university, he has kept close ties since the 1980s with successive Greek prime ministers.
Spiros Latsis: the 69-year-old son of John Latsis, a London-based shipping billionaire who funded the UK Conservative party. The Latsis group is a partner with the Greek state in Hellenic Petroleum, the country’s biggest oil refiner. Last year Lamda Developments, its property arm, won a concession to develop Hellenikon, the coastal site of the former Athens International Airport. Lamda and its partners, Fosun of China and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, made the only binding offer for the €5bn project, which a Syriza-led government may potentially cancel.
George Bobolas: the 86-year-old founder of Ellaktor, Greece’s leading construction company, who was accused by journalists and rivals in the 1980s of being a Soviet “agent of influence”. Mr Bobolas has always denied the allegation. The opposition Syriza party says it will review Ellaktor’s share of income from Attiki Odos, a profitable toll road to Athens airport if it comes to power. The Bobolas group is a minority shareholder in Mega Channel and controls Ethnos, a lossmaking daily newspaper. 
Dimitris Copelouzos: aged 64, Gazprom’s representative in Greece since the 1980s and founder of Copelouzos group, an energy and construction specialist. The group recently teamed up with the German airport operator Fraport to make the winning €1.2bn bid for a concession to operate 14 regional Greek airports that would drive the country’s tourist development over the next decade. Syriza has warned parliament may not ratify the deal.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Was Obama absence in Paris sign of US 'arrogance'? - BBC NEWS

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-30755237


By Anthony ZurcherEditor, Echo Chambers
Not pictured: US President Barack Obama
On Sunday, as more than a million marchers took to the Paris streetsand 44 heads of state joined arms on Boulevard Voltaire, there was one notable absence.

At least, the absence was noted by many of Barack Obama's critics, who slammed the US president for failing to attend the French unity demonstrations following the attack on the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo.
CNN's Jack Tapper said he was "ashamed" that Mr Obama, Vice-President Joe Biden or any other "high-level" US official failed to stand alongside leaders from the UK, Israel, the Palestinian authority, Germany and Jordan. 
"I get that the president visited the French Embassy in Washington and that Secretary of State John Kerry spoke in French, and I certainly understand that the American commitment to security in Europe rivals no other," he writes. "But with all due respect, those are politicians spending money that they didn't earn and sending troops whom they don't know."
He also cites leading Republicans for failing to take the opportunity to visibly demonstrate their support and wonders why.

"I hope it's not American arrogance, a belief that everyone should express shock when something bad happens to us but that our presence at an international rally is worth less than a ticket to the Green Bay game when the victims speak in accents we don't understand," he writes.
In a Monday afternoon press conference, White House spokesperson Josh Earnest said Mr Obama wished he could have attended, but the "onerous and significant" security preparations for a presidential visit require more than the 36-hour advance notice the White House received. 
He added, however: "It's fair to say that we should have sent someone with a higher profile." 
Mr Kerry, who is in India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, said: "The US has been deeply engaged with the people of France since this incident occurred", adding that he will travel to Paris later this week.
Politico's Edward-Isaac Devore isn't so sure about the security excuse, however.
"As a general rule, the Secret Service doesn't let either Obama or Biden be in the open air in areas that haven't had a full security sweep, and the White House tends to be mindful of having security precautions create distractions around events," he writes. "But a forceful president could dismiss such concerns to make a public point about terrorism."
The highest-level US representative at the French unity march on Sunday was Ambassador to France Jane Hartley
Besides, tweets Borzou Daragahi of the Financial Times, the world politicians didn't really lead the marchers through difficult-to-protect portions of Paris so much as join arms in a "photo op on an empty, guarded street".
According to Gateway Pundit's Jim Hoft, it's all just a question of priorities.
"The Obama administration sent three representatives to Michael Brown's funeral in Ferguson, Missouri," he writes. "But only the ambassador to France made the historic anti-terror march in Paris today."
The New York Daily News editorialised against the president, printing "You let the world down" on the front page of its Monday edition.

"This was a day to show up and to stand up, for the kind of march about freedom and courage and principles that this country has always done better than anyone," Daily News columnist Mike Lupica writes. "This is what the best and most noble of our marches on Washington must have looked like to the rest of the world."
Lupico concludes by pointing out that the US has a "complicated" relationship with France.
"Certainly there have been times when the leaders of France could have done better by us," he writes. "We should have done better by them on Sunday."
It was likely an oblique reference to the animosity that boiled over in US politics and the press as a result of French intransigence in the run-up to Iraq War in 2003. Many of the same conservative critics who today are blasting Mr Obama for failing to express solidarity with the French were cracking jokes about French cowardice and replacing "French" with "freedom" on congressional cafeteria items.
Twelve years is an eternity in politics, of course, and now the Obama administration is left facing a chorus of criticism - and not just from the usual voice on the right.
"I have been a fairly consistent supporter of President Obama's policies," writes Rick Ungar for Forbes. "However, President Obama's unwillingness to attend the Paris march is a personal failing on his part that I believe does damage to the pride and soul of the nation he leads."
As Jeffrey Goldberg of the Atlantic tweet: "It would have been nice to see the country whose birth was midwifed by France send its leader to stand with France today."
While the White House's intentions may be good, writes Bloomberg's Josh Rogin, it's just another example of how this administration can be tone deaf when it comes to "doing the small things that can make a big difference when it comes to maintaining relationships and showing respect".
"The White House often misses opportunities and lets poor optics overshadow positive contributions," he concludes.
Avoiding those kinds of unforced errors is pretty much what diplomacy is all about.

Sunday, January 11, 2015

185 Powerful Verbs That Will Make Your Resume Awesome - TIME

http://time.com/3648812/verbs-resume-awesome/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29

Dec. 29, 2014
    

Led…
Handled…
Managed…
Responsible for…
Most resume bullet points start with the same words. Frankly, the same tired old words hiring managers have heard over and over—to the point where they’ve lost a lot of their meaning and don’t do much to show off your awesome accomplishments.
So, let’s get a little more creative, shall we? Next time you update your resume, switch up a few of those common words and phrases with strong, compelling action verbs that will catch hiring managers’ eyes.
No matter what duty or accomplishment you’re trying to show off, we’ve got just the verb for you. Check out the list below, and get ready to make your resume way more exciting.

You Led a Project

If you were in charge of a project or initiative from start to finish, skip “led” and instead try:
1. Chaired
2. Controlled
3. Coordinated
4. Executed
5. Headed
6. Operated
7. Orchestrated
8. Organized
9. Oversaw
10. Planned
11. Produced
12. Programmed

You Envisioned and Brought to Life a Project

And if you actually developed, created, or introduced that project into your company? Try:
13. Administered
14. Built
15. Charted
16. Created
17. Designed
18. Developed
19. Devised
20. Founded
21. Engineered
22. Established
23. Formalized
24. Formed
25. Formulated
26. Implemented
27. Incorporated
28. Initiated
29. Instituted
30. Introduced
31. Launched
32. Pioneered
33. Spearheaded

You Saved the Company Time or Money

Hiring managers love candidates who’ve helped a team operate more efficiently or cost-effectively. To show just how much you saved, try:
34. Conserved
35. Consolidated
36. Decreased
37. Deducted
38. Diagnosed
39. Lessened
40. Reconciled
41. Reduced
42. Yielded

You Increased Efficiency, Sales, Revenue, or Customer Satisfaction

Along similar lines, if you can show that your work boosted the company’s numbers in some way, you’re bound to impress. In these cases, consider:
43. Accelerated
44. Achieved
45. Advanced
46. Amplified
47. Boosted
48. Capitalized
49. Delivered
50. Enhanced
51. Expanded
52. Expedited
53. Furthered
54. Gained
55. Generated
56. Improved
57. Lifted
58. Maximized
59. Outpaced
60. Stimulated
61. Sustained

You Changed or Improved Something

So, you brought your department’s invoicing system out of the Stone Age and onto the interwebs? Talk about the amazing changes you made at your office with these words:
62. Centralized
63. Clarified
64. Converted
65. Customized
66. Influenced
67. Integrated
68. Merged
69. Modified
70. Overhauled
71. Redesigned
72. Refined
73. Refocused
74. Rehabilitated
75. Remodeled
76. Reorganized
77. Replaced
78. Restructured
79. Revamped
80. Revitalized
81. Simplified
82. Standardized
83. Streamlined
84. Strengthened
85. Updated
86. Upgraded
87. Transformed

You Managed a Team

Instead of reciting your management duties, like “Led a team…” or “Managed employees…” show what an inspirational leader you were, with terms like:
88. Aligned
89. Cultivated
90. Directed
91. Enabled
92. Facilitated
93. Fostered
94. Guided
95. Hired
96. Inspired
97. Mentored
98. Mobilized
99. Motivated
100. Recruited
101. Regulated
102. Shaped
103. Supervised
104. Taught
105. Trained
106. Unified
107. United

You Brought in Partners, Funding, or Resources

Were you “responsible for” a great new partner, sponsor, or source of funding? Try:
108. Acquired
109. Forged
110. Navigated
111. Negotiated
112. Partnered
113. Secured

You Supported Customers

Because manning the phones or answering questions really means you’re advising customers and meeting their needs, use:
114. Advised
115. Advocated
116. Arbitrated
117. Coached
118. Consulted
119. Educated
120. Fielded
121. Informed
122. Resolved

You Were a Research Machine

Did your job include research, analysis, or fact-finding? Mix up your verbiage with these words:
123. Analyzed
124. Assembled
125. Assessed
126. Audited
127. Calculated
128. Discovered
129. Evaluated
130. Examined
131. Explored
132. Forecasted
133. Identified
134. Interpreted
135. Investigated
136. Mapped
137. Measured
138. Qualified
139. Quantified
140. Surveyed
141. Tested
142. Tracked

You Wrote or Communicated

Was writing, speaking, lobbying, or otherwise communicating part of your gig? You can explain just how compelling you were with words like:
143. Authored
144. Briefed
145. Campaigned
146. Co-authored
147. Composed
148. Conveyed
149. Convinced
150. Corresponded
151. Counseled
152. Critiqued
153. Defined
154. Documented
155. Edited
156. Illustrated
157. Lobbied
158. Persuaded
159. Promoted
160. Publicized
161. Reviewed

You Oversaw or Regulated

Whether you enforced protocol or managed your department’s requests, describe what you really did, better, with these words:
162. Authorized
163. Blocked
164. Delegated
165. Dispatched
166. Enforced
167. Ensured
168. Inspected
169. Itemized
170. Monitored
171. Screened
172. Scrutinized
173. Verified

You Achieved Something

Did you hit your goals? Win a coveted department award? Don’t forget to include that on your resume, with words like:
174. Attained
175. Awarded
176. Completed
177. Demonstrated
178. Earned
179. Exceeded
180. Outperformed
181. Reached
182. Showcased
183. Succeeded
184. Surpassed
185. Targeted

Here’s What Paris Investigators Have Found So Far - Charlie Hebdo Massacre - Time

http://time.com/3662728/paris-terror-attack-investigation-latest/

Jan. 10, 2015
    

Gunman's girlfriend may not have been in the country at time of attacks


In the aftermath of a week of terror attacks across Paris that left 20 people dead, including the three gunmen, French investigators are still working to piece together the whereabouts of Hayat Boumeddiene, the girlfriend of one of the assailants and the only suspected co-conspirator thought to be alive still.
Although police now reportedly believe Boumeddiene was likely in Turkey at the time of the attacks, authorities are still searching for her in connection to the killings last week at satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo and then a kosher grocery store.Boumeddiene’s boyfriend, Amedy Coulibaly, was killed Friday when police stormed the Paris grocery store where he was holding at least 15 people hostage.
An unnamed source in the Turkish security forces told AFP that Boumeddiene arrived in Turkey on Jan. 2, five days before the deadly attack on Charlie Hebdo and a week before Coulibaly took hostages in the grocery store. Coulibaly also allegedly killed a policewoman on Thursday, and killed four civilians in the grocery store on Friday.
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS MARCH FOR VICTIMS IN FRANCE
Although details are still emerging, The Guardian reports that Boumeddiene may have crossed into Syria on Jan. 8 and did not use her return ticket booked for Jan. 9.
One of seven children, Boumeddiene was placed in foster care at a young age after her father was unable to care for the children after her mother died. She “married” Coulibaly in an unofficial ceremony which is not recognized by French law, in 2009. Boumeddiene was reportedly a devout Muslim, and is said to have lost her job at a supermarket because she insisted on wearing full religious attire.
Coulibaly is thought to be a co-conspirator of Chérif and Saïd Kouachi, the brothers who killed 10 journalists and 2 police officers when they broke into the offices of Charlie Hebdo and opened fire on Jan 7. It appears that the brothers were part of the same Islamist network, and Coulibaly and Chérif reportedly met in prison. Coulibaly’s attack on the grocery store coincided with the Kouachi brothers’ attack on a printing plant north of the city. Paris prosecutor François Molins said that there had been regular telephone contact (over 500 calls a year) between Boumeddienne and Izzana Hamyd, Chérif’s wife.

CNN reports that their affiliate BFMTV spoke to Coulibaly during the hostage situation and that he said he belonged to ISIS and had coordinated his attack on the kosher market with the Kouachi brothers’ attack on the printing plant. Al-Qaeda’s branch in Yemen said it directed Wednesday’s attack at Charlie Hebdo.

Saturday, January 10, 2015

5 Secrets to Achieving and Maintaining Work-Life Balance - TIME

http://time.com/3656061/5-work-life-balance-secrets/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29

    

In a world where more and more people find themselves working in roles that could be considered “always on” jobs, how do people achieve and maintain work-life balance and how do companies and leaders promote this way of life? It is a challenge to say the least.
Every day millions of people wrestle with these questions. At the same time, leaders wrestle with the solutions. It is a hard issue to reconcile because the answers vary.
As a manager and member of the leadership team at home-improvement network Porch.com, helping people find work-life balance is something important to me. It is something I didn’t always possess or believe in.
There were times when I was the poster child for bad-balance behavior. I once had a sign in my office that read “never leave for tomorrow what you can get done today.” I was king of the 3 a.m. emails and I wore my 20 hour days, seven days a week work ethic as a badge of honor. Then a funny thing happened. I realized that I could be a much better leader, employee, manager, husband and friend when I took the time to focus on achieving balance. I found that I was living a happier, healthier, and more productive Life. And my output wasn’t comprised.
To help entrepreneurs, managers, and employees strike the right balance, here are five ways to achieve and maintain life-work balance. There is no one size fits all approach, but hopefully, these tips will lead to productive discussions for managers and employees.
1. Be open about your needs. I believe that the first thing people need to do is identify what truly matters to them and communicate it. Don’t hide it and don’t expect others to guess what makes you feel balanced and fulfilled.
Do you need to leave work at 5 p.m. so you can have dinner with your family? Do you need to step away at 12 p.m. to attend a yoga class? Whatever your sweet spot is you need to find it and be transparent about it. Employees need to have an open dialogue with their managers and managers need to understand what works and what is possible. Different jobs require different approaches, but everyone can benefit from having an open and honest conversation about what balance means.
2. Respect boundaries. You cannot achieve your balance if you don’t respect the boundaries you have put in place. It will be hard in the beginning but you need to stick with it so you develop a routine and drive a culture and lifestyle of predictability. You will find that there is also something else you can do. There is always another email to reply to or a problem to work, but you need to PERSONALLY respect your boundaries. If you don’t then you can’t expect others to respect them.
3. Understand what really matters. Over the years I have seen too many people spend too much time working on things that don’t really matter. Time is the most valuable commodity in life: it is the one thing you cannot buy more of. So, don’t waste time. Focus on what really matters. What really moves the needle for the business? Are you working on priorities that drive the overall goals of the business or are you just making noise? Really scrutinize your day and max it out every hour, minute and second to focus on the most important outputs. For some this may require a high degree of planning and structure.
4. Embrace the off button. Pretty much every piece of technology has an off button, so use it. It is not easy and for many people this is the hardest thing to do. To get started, do it in phases. Don’t bring your cellphone to the dinner table. When you are on vacation, be on vacation. Don’t bring your tablet to the beach. Once you have done it a few times, it is easier to push the boundaries. When you unplug and step back you will start to experience one of life’s greatest treasures — perspective. You will think about problems you are wrestling with greater clarity. You allow yourself the freedom to be more analytical and less emotional when you step away and think vs. just diving in and responding in the moment.

5. Pace yourself. To have a long, healthy, productive, and happy life and career you need to understand the value of pace. There are times when you need to throttle up and there are times when you can throttle down. Self-awareness is crucial. Doing so will help you enjoy the journey as much as the destination.