Monday, August 1, 2016

Donald Trump - What are his political beliefs ? - BBC News

Donald Trump is the frontrunner in the Republican race to be the presidential nominee for next year's election. What are his policies and beliefs?
1. Arab-Americans cheered the attacks on 9/11. Trump repeatedly claimed that on 11 September, 2001, there were thousands of Arab-Americans celebrating in New Jersey after two planes flew into the Twin Towers. He says such public demonstrations "tell you something" about Muslims living in the US. However, there are no media reports to back up the claim.
2. There should be surveillance on US mosques.Trump believes Muslims should be tracked by law enforcement as a counterterrorism initiative. He has walked back some comments about keeping a database on all American Muslims, but says he doesn't care if watching mosques is seen as "politically incorrect".
3. The US should use waterboarding and other methods of "strong interrogation" in its fight against the Islamic State. The candidate said that these methods are "peanuts" compared to the tactics used by the militants, such as beheadings. 
4. Trump would "bomb the hell" out of IS. He claims that no other candidate would be tougher on the Islamic State and he would weaken the militants by cutting off their access to oil.


5. Create a simpler tax code. Trump wants anyone who earns less than $25,000 (£16,524) to pay no income tax. They would submit nothing more than a single page tax form that reads "I win". He would lower the business tax to 15%. He would also allow multinational companies keeping money overseas to repatriate their cash at a 10% tax rate.
6. Hedge fund managers are "getting away with murder" under the current US tax code.Trump found common ground with Democrats like Senator Elizabeth Warren when he said that hedge fund managers and the ultra-wealthy do not pay enough taxes. However, after the campaign released specifics of his plan, analysts argued that hedge fund managers would actually get a tax cut along with the middle class.
7. He wants to build a "great, great wall" between the US and Mexico. In some of his earliest campaign comments, Trump suggested that Mexicans coming to the US are largely criminals. "They are bringing drugs, and bringing crime, and they're rapists," he said. A wall on the border, he claims, will not only keep out undocumented immigrants but Syrian migrants as well. He also believes that Mexico should have to pay for the wall, which a BBC analysis estimates could cost between $2.2bn and $13bn.
8. A mass deportation of the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants living in the US should go into effect. Despite criticism that this idea is both xenophobic and prohibitively expensive - the BBC estimates $114bn - Trump says his deportation plan is as achievable as it will be humane. In addition, his immigration reforms would end "birthright citizenship", the policy that grants the children of illegal immigrants citizenship so long as they are born on American soil. He does not support creating a new path to citizenship for undocumented workers. 
9. He and Vladmir Putin would "get along very well". In an interview with CNN, Trump said that Putin and Obama dislike one another too much to negotiate, but that "I would probably get along with him very well. And I don't think you'd be having the kind of problems that you're having right now".
10. In order to end mass shootings, the US should invest in mental healthtreatment. However, Trump does not believe that more gun control is the answer. In a position paper on gun rights, Trump revealed he has a concealed carry permit and that when it comes to gun and magazine bans, "the government has no business dictating what types of firearms good, honest people are allowed to own". He would also oppose an expansion of background checks.
11. China should be taken to task on a number of issuesin order to make trade with the US more equitable. If elected he says he will make China stop undervaluing its currency, and force it to step up its environmental and labour standards. He is also critical of the county's lax attitude towards American intellectual property and hacking. 
12. The Black Lives Matter movement is "trouble". Trump mocks former Democratic candidates like Martin O'Malley for apologising to members of the protest movement against police brutality and casts himself as a pro-law enforcement candidate. "I think they're looking for trouble," he once said of the activist group. He also tweeted a controversial graphic purporting to show that African Americans kill whites and blacks at a far higher rates than whites or police officers. However, the graphic cites a fictitious "Crime Statistics Bureau" for its numbers, and has been widely debunked using real FBI data.
13. Current unemployment statistics are wrong. Trump has said repeatedly that unemployment in the US is at 20% - once commenting it may be as high as 42% - despite the fact that the Bureau of Labor Statistics pegs the number at 5.1%. Trump says he doesn't believe that figure is real. 
14. His net worth is $10bn. Based on Trump's 92-page personal financial disclosure form, Bloomberg calculated that the real estate mogul is worth about $2.9bn and Forbes put Trump's worth at $4bn. In response, Trump insisted in a press release that he is worth "in excess of TEN BILLION DOLLARS". He is self-funding his campaign and describes his start in the business world as a "small loan of a million dollars" from his father.
15. Veteran healthcare in the US needs a major overhaul. Trump wants to clear out the executive level in the Department of Veterans Affairs, saying that wait times for doctor visits have only increased after previous interventions failed. Thousands of veterans have died while waiting for care, he says. He will invest in the treatment of "invisible wounds" like post-traumatic stress disorder and depression. He would also increase the number of doctors who specialise in women's health to help care for the increasing number of female veterans.
16. Obamacare is a "disaster". Trump says he favours repealing the president's Affordable Care Act, which aims at extending the number of Americans with health insurance, but he believes that "everybody's got to be covered". A spokesman for Trump told Forbes that he will propose "a health plan that will return authority to the states and operate under free market principles". 
17. Climate change is just "weather". While Trump believes that maintaining "clean air" and "clean water" is important, he dismissed climate change science as a "hoax" and believes environmental restrictions on businesses makes them less competitive in the global marketplace. "I do not believe that we should imperil the companies within our country," he told CNN on the issue. "It costs so much and nobody knows exactly if it's going to work."
18. The world would be better off if Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddhafi were still in power. Trump told CNN that he believes the situation in both Libya and Iraq is "far worse" than it ever was under the two deceased dictators. While he concedes Saddam was a "horrible guy", he says he did a better job combating terrorists.
19. He would send back Syrian migrants seeking asylum in the US. He says that the Paris attacks prove that even a handful of terrorists posing as migrants could do catastrophic damage, and so he will oppose resettling any Syrians in the US, and deport those who have already been placed here.
20. Kim Davis should get another job. The Kentucky clerk became a conservative cause when she was jailed for refusing to issue marriage licences to gay couples because of her Christian faith. But Trump said: "I'm a very, very strong believer in Christianity and religion, but I will say that this was not the right job for her."
21. Muslims should not be admitted to the US. In a press release published in the wake of the terrorist attacks in San Bernardino, California, Trump wrote that he is "calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on". The release created a huge backlash, including a petition submitted to British Parliament demanding that Trump not be allowed into the country.
22. He is a "really nice guy". In Trump's most recent book, Crippled America, he writes that "I'm a really nice guy, believe me, I pride myself on being a nice guy but I'm also passionate and determined to make our country great again". The news site Gawker points out that he calls himself a "nice guy" throughout the book, and Trump repeated that self-assessment in his opening monologue on Saturday Night Live and in an interview with the Washington Post.
23. Tokyo and Seoul should build up nuclear arsenals. He has said Japan and South Korea should not rely on the US so much and would benefit from having their own weapons. Nuclear war between Japan and North Korea may be "terrible" but it would be "pretty quick".
24. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) is a "rip-off" because the US pays more than anyone else.
25. Doctors should be punished for administering abortions - or should they? In an interview with MSNBC, Mr Trump said that if abortion were to become illegal, women should be punished for obtaining them. He then retracted, saying the doctor would be responsible and he or she should be punished instead.
26. The Republican National Committee's rules are "stacked against him". He has called the delegate system "crooked" and "unfair". He has repeatedly clashed with the RNC over its nomination process and how it has treated his candidacy. He has called rules that allowed Senator Ted Cruz to gain more delegates than him in some states "rigged".
27. Hillary Clinton "destroyed" the women who accused her husband Bill of impropriety.
28. The federal minimum wage should be raised from its present level of $7.25/hour.
29. Former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was efficient at killing terrorists. "He was a bad guy - really bad guy. But you know what? He did well? He killed terrorists. He did that so good. They didn't read them the rights. They didn't talk. They were terrorists. Over."
30. Hillary Clinton bribed Attorney General Loretta Lynch with the promise of keeping her job if she became president, in return for escaping prosecution for the use of a private email when secretary of state. 
Assembled by Jessica Lussenhop and Ashley Gold.

Donald Trump lied about Muslim mother not allowed to speak - Independent

Donald Trump claimed this Muslim woman wasn't allowed to speak. Of course she was - and she criticised him

His wife, if you look at his wife, she was standing there. She had nothing to say. She probably... maybe she wasn’t allowed to have anything to say. You tell me but plenty of people are saying that. 
She was extremely quiet. And it looked like she had nothing to say.

Ghazala Khan had a whole lot to say, actually.

In an interview with MSNBC on Saturday, she said: 
First of all I thank all America who listened from their heart to my husband’s and my heart, and I am so grateful for that. It was very nervous because I cannot [look at] my son’s picture. I cannot even come in the room where his pictures are. And that’s why when, I saw [his] picture [on the screen] I couldn’t take it. I controlled myself at that time. So it was – it is – very hard.

Addressing Trump's attack on her, she added:

Sacrifice - I don't think he knows the meaning of sacrifice, the meaning of the word. Because when I was standing there, all America felt my pain. Without saying a single word. Everybody felt that pain.

Mrs Khan's silence had been as a result of seeing her dead son's picture on the screen behind her.

That tends to quiet a parent, Donald Trump - in case you weren't aware.
She added:
I didn't feel anything except the pain. Mr Trump feel that pain and you will feel better. Please. I am very upset when I heard when he said that I didn't say anything. I was in pain. If you were in pain you fight or you don't say anything, I’m not a fighter, I can't fight. So the best thing I do was quiet.
Khizr Khan went on to praise his wife's support and contributions:
She was my coach. She was there. I was strengthened by her presence. Forty years of marriage has brought us in a position where we are strength for one another. 
I am much weaker than she is…so it was her strength that made me stand there and address a candidate for a majority party for the highest office in the country.

Sunday, July 31, 2016

What Donald Trump's former ghost writer says about him - Independent

The ghostwriter of Donald Trump's The Art of the Deal remarked earlier this week that "most negative things he says about others are actually describing him".
Tony Schwartz, who wrote the bestseller with Trump in 1987, said that people should bear that fact in mind when reading the Republican nominee's insults on Twitter.
And, well, Trump sure does like an insult. With the help of the New York Times' extensive collection of his outbursts, we've put together a list of bad things he's said about other people... with some slight edits:

1.

Donald Trump should not be given national security briefings in that he is a lose cannon with extraordinarily bad judgment and insticts.

2.

I'm unfit to serve as President of the U.S. My temperament is weak and my opponents are strong. BAD JUDGEMENT!

3.

Truly weird Donald Trump of New York reminds me of a spoiled brat without a properly functioning brain. He was terrible at DEBATE!

4.

Crooked Donald will NEVER be able to handle the complexities and danger of ISIS - it will just go on forever. We need change!

5.

I would be a disaster 

6.

Crooked Donald Trump, perhaps the most dishonest person to have ever run for the presidency

7.

I'm just a 3rd rate 'gotcha' guy!

8.

I'VE DEMONSTRATED A PENCHANT FOR SEXISM, so inappropriate!

9.

I have no idea what my strategy on ISIS is, and neither does ISIS (a good thing).

10.

I have a nasty mouth. 

11.

No focus, poor level of concentration

12.

Trump will NEVER Make America Great Again! 

13.

All I do is go on television is talk, talk, talk, but I'm incapable of doing anything.

14.

A world class LIAR

15.

A total phony and con man.

16.

A dopey clown

17.

One of the dumbest and worst candidates in the history of Republican politics

18

I have a major inferiority complex

19

Dumb as a rock

20

Donald Trump is terrible at business. The last thing our country needs!

21

I just realised that if you listen to Donald Trump for more than ten minutes straight, you develop a massive headache.

How Hillary Proved She’s an Economic Progressive - TIME


Posted: 29 Jul 2016 08:01 AM PDT

I couldn’t help but think last night, watching Hillary’s triumphant nomination acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, that she had finally felt the Bern. In sharp contrast to President Obama’s sunny speech the night before, which focused on mainly the good economic news about falling unemployment and high stock prices, Clinton managed to be both optimistic, and realistic. She said exactly what the progressive wing of the party wanted to hear: that she’s going to make creating better jobs with higher wages her number one priority while in office. And that she understands that our economic recovery, the weakest and longest of the post World War II era, has exacerbated an already growing wealth divide in which the richest Americans have done better than ever and the poorest are stuck in low-wage jobs..

By focusing on wage hikes, the economic struggles of millennials (the class of 2016 is the most indebted in history), and the divide between Main Street and Wall Street, she went some way towards bridging the divide in the party between centrists and progressives, the latter of whom feel Democrats took a wrong turn during the Clinton years. (I’d agree with them.) Earlier in the day, I moderated a panel touching on that topic at the DNC for the Roosevelt Institute, whose chief economist Joseph E. Stiglitz was one of those who argued in the 1990s (along with others in Bill Clinton’s administration, like former labor secretary Robert Reich) for a greater focus on the growth-destroying inequality rather than a continuation of Reagan-esque laissez-faire policies. The fact that the trickle down camp won is a key reason the 1990s boom didn’t last. Both Stiglitz and Clinton pollster Stan Greenberg argue that acknowledging all this in a message of economic realism would actually play better than straight-forward optimism amongst millennials, minorities, working moms and other groups that Clinton needs to court to get enough of a win to create a mandate for serious economic change. Certainly, it’s more in line with the felt experience of those voters.
Based on last night’s speech, it seems that Clinton has taken much of the progressive playbook to heart. She talked about the need to make sure that giant companies aren’t flying 35,000 feet above the problems of local populations, hording wealth abroad, while outsourcing jobs and profits. She talked about the need to create a financial system that lends to small business which create the majority of American jobs. “Too many dreams die in the parking lot of banks,” as she put it. She talked about making tuition free for not just the working class but also middle class students–something that’s crucial to creating more growth. Harvard academic work has shown that when the quality and availability of education outpaces technology, jobs are created. Unfortunately, that link has been broken since the 1970s. Fixing it is key to getting back to trend growth, and making sure the gig economy doesn’t become a zero sum game.
Of course, all this will require bipartisan support. But as Clinton made quite clear in her speech, bringing people with different ideas together under one tent is her wheelhouse. Last night at least, she went some way towards unifying her own party.

Saturday, July 30, 2016

Consumer survey shows Clinton will win - Bloomberg

A new question added to the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers could turn out to be more accurate than ordinary opinion polls in predicting the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
In June and July, respondents to the monthly survey were asked who they expected to become the next president — rather than who they intended to vote forThe results belie the horse-race nature of the campaign that's being implied by most polls of voter intent.
58 percent of the households surveyed by the University of Michigan said they thought Hillary Clinton would emerge victorious, relative to just 37 percent for the real estate and reality TV mogul Trump. That presents a very different picture to aggregations of voter intention; as is shown by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEightwhich has Hillary Clinton's chances of winning the presidency at 53.3 percent versus Donald Trump at 46.7 percent.
report published by Ludwig Maximilians University Research Fellow Andreas Graefe in 2014 found that asking voters who they think will win has proved a better crystal ball than asking them which candidate they themselves are likely to support.

"Across the last 100 days prior to each of the seven U.S. presidential elections from 1988 to 2012, expectations provided more accurate forecasts of election winners and the final vote shares," he wrote, relative to benchmark methods like intention polls, prediction markets, expert judgments, and quantitative models. "Gains in accuracy were particularly large compared to intention polls: on average, expectations reduced the error of intentions by more than half."
Graefe explained that expectations-based surveys offer insight on both an individual's own voting intention, but also incorporate the information that person has on how other people in their family or social circles are likely to vote.
Richard Curtin, director of the Michigan survey of consumers, indicated that respondents who saw a Clinton victory as more likely had a "significantly higher" Expectations Index (+9.7 points).
However, respondents were generally agnostic as to which candidate would be better for their personal finances or the economy as a whole, despite immense differences in their platforms and rhetoric.
According to the report, when it comes to personal finances, most people said it shouldn't make a difference who ends up winning in November. While 25 percent said Clinton would be better and 26 percent said Trump, 48 percent thought there was little difference. The same goes for the economy as a whole, with 31 percent saying Clinton would be preferable and 30 percent naming Trump, while a higher share said they didn't see either having a significantly more positive impact than the other. 

It should be noted that most existing polling on the candidates predates this week's Democratic National Convention, whose effect on voter sentiment has yet to be fully assessed.

Friday, July 29, 2016

Donald Trump is leading in the polls - Intelligencer


Donald Trump Is Now Leading the Polls in the Race to Be World’s Most Powerful Person

By 


Republican National Convention: Day Four
Don't look now, but Cleveland worked for Donald Trump. Photo: John Moore/Getty Images
So, does a presidential candidate in a highly polarized environment get a "bounce" from a disorganized and divided convention that struck many of the nominee's enemies as reminiscent of certain 20th-century authoritarian spectacles? Apparently so. The first batch of post-convention polls universally shows Trump making gains. He now has a 0.2 percent lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average. But while some polls show a definite change in the two candidates' standing attributable to the convention, others suggest Trump was making gains going into Cleveland that simply continued (e.g., an L.A. Times/USC six-day poll showing Trump up 45-41).
The source of Trump's gains varies by poll. A CNN/ORC survey gives Trump a 48-45 lead (44-39 with third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein included), a six-point improvement over the mogul's performance in that outlet's last survey earlier this month. It shows the support for Trump spiking among independents and non-college-educated white voters (where he has a remarkable 62-23 lead). A CBS poll showing Trump up by one point indicates a slight consolidation of Republican and conservative votes for Trump, and a spike in HRC's unfavorables. According to that survey, at least, all of the Clinton-bashing in Cleveland had an effect, though the pollster did not ask if respondents wanted to "lock her up."
These findings will surprise some observers who thought this was one year when voters were so polarized that a convention "bounce" was unlikely, and will clearly shock Democrats who watched the show in Cleveland and found it repellent. Given the unhappy convention-eve developments on the Democratic side (Politico is running one of those "convention chaos" stories from Philadelphia that echoes the Cleveland coverage), the natural assumption that Clinton will get a corresponding or even superior bounce is in question, though Democrats do have a significant advantage in rhetorical firepower.
Whether they persist or not, Trump's post-convention gains are another sign that this is likely to be a close presidential race. That could be because of what the candidates are and are not doing, or simply because the country is so polarized that absolutely any nominees, however monstrous, are going to get in the neighborhood of 45 percent of the vote. It's also important to keep an eye on the "fundamentals"; the president's job approval rating has sagged a bit in recent weeks. There's no reason for any kind of Democratic panic at this point. But complacency about Trump being a self-destructive pushover is clearly no longer rational.