Saturday, May 6, 2017

Getting rich is largely about luck – shame the wealthy don’t want to hear it - Independent

Getting rich is largely about luck – shame the wealthy don’t want to hear it
A new report confirms how the rich become deluded about their talents, but also hints at a growing acknowledgement of inequality
The UK suffers from the highest levels of income inequality in Europe – partly because of the delusions of its rich. In countries where the rich have less, they tend to be less delusional, about themselves, about other people, about what is possible, and about why some become rich.
In the UK, it is unsurprising to read that an investment banker thinks £100m is a lot of money but “not a ridiculous amount of money”. In a report in The Guardian this week, we also heard that one particular banker is “fairly confident” that a driven and passionate individual could “start from zero and get to £100m within 20 years”.
However, there is hope. In the research report that kicked off this latest set of news stories, Katharina Hecht from the London School of Economics and Political Science found that one third of her sample of extremely rich people working in the City of London agreed that “the government should reduce income differences”. The sample is extremely small and this subset of the very rich has not been asked similar questions before, but what they say chimes with reports from the US last year, which implied attitudes among the extremely wealthy are beginning to change.
In 2016 in New York, 50 millionaires wrote to the state’s governor, Andrew Cuomo, asking him to increase their taxes because they thought economic inequalities had grown too high. The group included Abigail Disney, granddaughter of Walt Disney, and Steven Rockefeller, a fourth-generation member of that very wealthy family. The offspring of the rich at least know they did not bring in their riches, let alone create them out of thin air.
In truth, no one creates wealth out of the ether as the mythic phrase “wealth creator” suggests. Most wealth is appropriated from others, not made. Wealth can grow but only when it is well shared, not corralled into the hands of a few. Wealth growth rates are highest in countries that are more equitable than their neighbours.
Four years after the great financial crash, Michael Lewis, one of the most successful people ever to write about the financial industry tried to explain to a group of Princeton University graduates why most of his own and his audience’s success would be down to luck. The author of The Big Short and Moneyball told them that the odds would just be tipped a little in their favour if they were born with a silver spoon in their mouth:
People really don’t like to hear success explained away as luck – especially successful people. As they age, and succeed, people feel their success was somehow inevitable. They don’t want to acknowledge the role played by accident in their lives. There is a reason for this: the world does not want to acknowledge it either.
The world Lewis was talking about was not the whole world, but the world as seen by the elites in unequal counties. By “world” he really meant “America”, and in particular he was talking about the “American Dream” – the idea that anyone can make it if they try hard enough and are talented enough, no matter how economically unequal the society is they are competing in.
The American dream is a myth, just like the London investment banker’s fantasy. Those who make money are often not very talented at all. They were just lucky at the right points in their lives. They might have worked hard and often are driven and greedy, but thousands of others will have worked as hard as them, been just as greedy as them, and not consistently struck it lucky. Most often, those who make money had money given to them in the first place, through inheritance that increased their chances; but it is always down to luck. Don’t believe the myth of the nice, kind, gifted, self-made entrepreneur.
We live in a world in which those who have got to the top have got there not out of great merit, but because they often had a few unfair advantages to start with, such as being born male, white and rich, because they had many lucky breaks on the way up, and often because they were willing to stamp on others’ chances as they rose. The human world does not consist of just a few superior beings able enough to do the key things that need doing, and a lumpen mass of inferior beings who could never do these things and so should be penalised appropriately.

Danny Dorling is a Halford Mackinder professor of geography, University of Oxford. This article first appeared on The Conversation (theconversation.com)

Friday, May 5, 2017

In House Health Vote, Reince Priebus Sees a Much-Needed Reprieve - New York Times

In House Health Vote, Reince Priebus Sees a Much-Needed Reprieve

By GLENN THRUSH and MAGGIE HABERMAN
MAY 5, 2017
WASHINGTON — The Republican health care overhaul might never become law, but it has already changed the life of one American: Reince Priebus, who knew it was his best and perhaps last hope of becoming an empowered White House chief of staff.
President Trump placed much of the blame for his first, failed push to repeal the Affordable Care Act in March on Mr. Priebus, the harried and ambitious former Republican National Committee chairman. He told aides that he believed the damaging loss had resulted in no small part from Mr. Priebus’s too-rosy vote-count predictions and his too-cozy relationship with Speaker Paul D. Ryan, a fellow Wisconsinite.
After that defeat, Mr. Trump’s staff noticed that the president had adopted a practice of merging the two men’s names into one long “Ryan-ce,” according to several West Wing aides.
It is unlikely that Mr. Priebus — roundly regarded as a steady party leader but one of the least powerful White House chiefs of staff ever — would have been fired had the second repeal-and-replace plan not passed the House on Thursday. But he viewed it as a personal make-or-break moment, and interviews with two dozen West Wing aides and Republican officials confirmed that another big loss on health care would probably have been an unrecoverable blow to an already weakened Mr. Priebus.
He responded by texting, calling and buttonholing Republicans, especially Mr. Ryan — badgering him for weeks to bring some version of the bill to the floor and demanding votes despite being short of support, with an angry insistence that tested their two-Cheeseheads-are-better-than-one friendship.
Mr. Priebus’s push for a quick vote chafed some members of the White House staff. Several people on Mr. Trump’s team who were trying to lower expectations were annoyed to find out that Mr. Priebus was openly talking about forcing a vote this week. At times, Mr. Trump himself seemed a little puzzled by his aide’s vehemence, telling legislators, including Mr. Ryan, that while he wanted a win, he did not necessarily need a vote immediately.

And it was Mr. Ryan, not the president, who offered his friend a shout-out at Thursday’s spike-the-football celebration for a bill passed by one chamber of Congress. “I especially want to thank Reince Priebus,” he said as Mr. Trump looked on.

The House’s passage of the health bill was less a victory for Mr. Priebus than a reprieve. It bought him time for a badly needed reset after three chaotic months in a job that has often seemed to overwhelm him — and possibly would anybody else in his position.
“At first, I think Reince wanted to be the gatekeeper, the guy who has control of who comes in and out all day. But you can’t do that with Donald Trump — he won’t let you,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, an on-and-off Republican critic of Mr. Trump who speaks with Mr. Priebus often. “I think he’s learned to play a different role by necessity. He has to stick with organizing things. He has to be the connective tissue. I think he gets that.”
Even with a win, Mr. Priebus remains, at best, the third most powerful player in a top-heavy White House dominated by bigger personalities, a would-be gatekeeper desperately in search of a gate.
“It’s been the most dysfunctional White House in memory, and a lot of it is on Reince,” said Chris Whipple, a documentary filmmaker and author of “The Gatekeepers,” a new book chronicling White House chiefs of staff back to the Truman administration.
“Priebus has made rookie mistake after rookie mistake, and he started by making the biggest one of all: not insisting he be the first among equals,” Mr. Whipple said. “Fatal mistake. I’m not sure anybody could make that demand, but he didn’t even really try.”

“At some point, the president is either going to embrace failure or pick a grown-up, like a C.E.O. or maybe Mattis, as his chief,” he added, referring to Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.
The signature image of Mr. Trump’s first 100 days in office, people close to the president said, is that of Mr. Priebus standing just inside the open door of the Oval Office, agitated and rolling his eyes, as Mr. Trump beckons another seemingly random gaggle of aides, friends, family, visitors, reporters — even the White House decorator — in for an unstructured chat or, worst of all, policy discussions.
Mr. Priebus, who has said he has self-diagnosed obsessive-compulsive disorder, tried at first to restrict these interactions, often by keeping the president busy with ceremonial events like executive order signings and meetings with business leaders.
Over time, Mr. Trump bridled and demanded the unstructured time he had so valued as an executive at Trump Tower. Mr. Priebus, who initially outsourced the details of Oval Office scheduling and paper flow to a deputy, has now taken over those tasks himself. He has reduced the pace of public events and, like a Montessori teacher, modulates structured work time with the slack periods Mr. Trump craves.
In recent days, Mr. Priebus cut back on his stalking-butler tendency to hover over the president, realizing his antsy boss had grown resentful of his constant companionship. “What are you doing in here? Don’t you have health care to take care of?” Mr. Trump asked Mr. Priebus at one recent meeting around his desk, according to a senior White House official.
Mr. Priebus is increasingly focused on big-picture issues like improving the “interagency” process linking the West Wing to the federal bureaucracy. He has also tried to reduce what he calls inputs — the number of people talking to the president each day — to 20 or so from about 50, and to keep Mr. Trump to a tighter schedule through short, agenda-driven meetings: a suggestion made by many outside advisers he consulted, including John H. Sununu, the chief of staff to President George Bush.

That entails trying to cut the number of Oval Office meeting attendees from 15 to eight or fewer, according to an aide.
One small but significant recent victory: excluding Omarosa Manigault, the former “Apprentice” contestant and Trump favorite, from as many meetings as possible.
“The trains are now running on time,” said Thomas Barrack Jr., a close friend of Mr. Trump’s, reflecting a prevailing sense even among Mr. Priebus’s critics in the White House that the situation has improved.
That does not mean Mr. Priebus is entirely running things. He is often elbowed out by a half-dozen other West Wing players — chief among them Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who enjoys many of the powers exercised by a chief of staff (he has been described by friends as “a first among equals”), including a virtual veto over some hiring decisions. Mr. Priebus has half-joked that Mr. Kushner has “all the fun” but few of the responsibilities that burden him, according to one longtime Priebus confidant.
“Reince is fundamentally a nice Midwestern guy who is very concerned about not losing friends and not making enemies,” said Charlie Sykes, a veteran Republican operative and radio host in Wisconsin who has been friends with Mr. Priebus for two decades. “He is, at bottom, a pleaser. But he doesn’t want to fail.”
“One of the things that’s made him successful up until now is that he knows how to maintain friendships; he knows how to keep in touch with donors and key players,” Mr. Sykes said. “But I don’t know that he would be the one to crack the whip. At a certain point, you have to be willing to be confrontational and to lose friends. I think that’s very difficult for Reince.”
For all the talk of Mr. Priebus as a potentially moderating force, he has fed some of the president’s most self-destructive impulses, including reviewing a way to sue the news media and vigorously supporting Mr. Trump’s hunt for an order supposedly obtained by the Obama administration to allow the surveillance of Trump campaign officials.

But all of these stresses are worth it, Mr. Priebus has told friends.
One of the party’s most formidable fund-raisers, Mr. Priebus, who declined to be interviewed for this article, is accustomed to swallowing his pride to court richer, more powerful men. So he has a high pain threshold for a boss who still views him, in moments of candor, as a leader of the Republican political establishment that once tried to destroy Mr. Trump.
Mr. Priebus — whose allies say he has always been animated by proximity to power — is nothing if not resilient, however, and he is intent on forging alliances with anyone who can improve his internal standing. In recent weeks, he has tried to capitalize on the growing rift between Mr. Kushner and the White House chief strategist, Stephen K. Bannon.
At the height of the Kushner-Bannon spat last month, Mr. Trump instructed both men to “stop it” or face the boot, and delegated to Mr. Priebus the role of evenhanded mediator. Instead, Mr. Priebus interpreted that as a license to forge an alliance with Mr. Kushner, though the first son-in-law has felt free to use his veto power over the chief of staff, including siding with others to keep Mr. Priebus from promoting his preferred choices for his deputy, according to four West Wing aides.
Mr. Priebus has been reluctant to confront Mr. Bannon directly. But he has quietly sought to undermine Mr. Bannon’s agenda and temper his nativist impulses, and has happily assumed the role of establishment soother. At a dinner last week at the Hay-Adams Hotel with a number of prominent Republicans, including former Vice President Dick Cheney, Mr. Priebus assured the attendees that the North American Free Trade Agreement would not be undone the next day, as Mr. Bannon had sought to do, according to three people with knowledge of the interaction.
He has also bonded with Mr. Kushner and his wife, the president’s daughter Ivanka, over what they all see as Mr. Bannon’s hidden war against them in the news media, especially through Breitbart, the site Mr. Bannon used to run. Mr. Kushner was especially incensed by Breitbart’s speculation that Mr. Priebus would soon be replaced by his ally Gary D. Cohn, the National Economic Council chairman, two people close to him said.




Go

Politics

In House Health Vote, Reince Priebus Sees a Much-Needed Reprieve

DOUG MILLS / THE NEW YORK TIMES
By GLENN THRUSH and MAGGIE HABERMAN
MAY 5, 2017
WASHINGTON — The Republican health care overhaul might never become law, but it has already changed the life of one American: Reince Priebus, who knew it was his best and perhaps last hope of becoming an empowered White House chief of staff.
President Trump placed much of the blame for his first, failed push to repeal the Affordable Care Act in March on Mr. Priebus, the harried and ambitious former Republican National Committee chairman. He told aides that he believed the damaging loss had resulted in no small part from Mr. Priebus’s too-rosy vote-count predictions and his too-cozy relationship with Speaker Paul D. Ryan, a fellow Wisconsinite.
After that defeat, Mr. Trump’s staff noticed that the president had adopted a practice of merging the two men’s names into one long “Ryan-ce,” according to several West Wing aides.
It is unlikely that Mr. Priebus — roundly regarded as a steady party leader but one of the least powerful White House chiefs of staff ever — would have been fired had the second repeal-and-replace plan not passed the House on Thursday. But he viewed it as a personal make-or-break moment, and interviews with two dozen West Wing aides and Republican officials confirmed that another big loss on health care would probably have been an unrecoverable blow to an already weakened Mr. Priebus.
B11370825.151252818.gif
He responded by texting, calling and buttonholing Republicans, especially Mr. Ryan — badgering him for weeks to bring some version of the bill to the floor and demanding votes despite being short of support, with an angry insistence that tested their two-Cheeseheads-are-better-than-one friendship.
Mr. Priebus with Stephen K. Bannon, right, and Stephen Miller at the White House last month. He has tried to capitalize on a rift between Mr. Bannon and Jared Kushner.
AL DRAGO / THE NEW YORK TIMES
Mr. Priebus’s push for a quick vote chafed some members of the White House staff. Several people on Mr. Trump’s team who were trying to lower expectations were annoyed to find out that Mr. Priebus was openly talking about forcing a vote this week. At times, Mr. Trump himself seemed a little puzzled by his aide’s vehemence, telling legislators, including Mr. Ryan, that while he wanted a win, he did not necessarily need a vote immediately.

And it was Mr. Ryan, not the president, who offered his friend a shout-out at Thursday’s spike-the-football celebration for a bill passed by one chamber of Congress. “I especially want to thank Reince Priebus,” he said as Mr. Trump looked on.

The House’s passage of the health bill was less a victory for Mr. Priebus than a reprieve. It bought him time for a badly needed reset after three chaotic months in a job that has often seemed to overwhelm him — and possibly would anybody else in his position.
“At first, I think Reince wanted to be the gatekeeper, the guy who has control of who comes in and out all day. But you can’t do that with Donald Trump — he won’t let you,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, an on-and-off Republican critic of Mr. Trump who speaks with Mr. Priebus often. “I think he’s learned to play a different role by necessity. He has to stick with organizing things. He has to be the connective tissue. I think he gets that.”
Even with a win, Mr. Priebus remains, at best, the third most powerful player in a top-heavy White House dominated by bigger personalities, a would-be gatekeeper desperately in search of a gate.
“It’s been the most dysfunctional White House in memory, and a lot of it is on Reince,” said Chris Whipple, a documentary filmmaker and author of “The Gatekeepers,” a new book chronicling White House chiefs of staff back to the Truman administration
“Priebus has made rookie mistake after rookie mistake, and he started by making the biggest one of all: not insisting he be the first among equals,” Mr. Whipple said. “Fatal mistake. I’m not sure anybody could make that demand, but he didn’t even really try.”

“At some point, the president is either going to embrace failure or pick a grown-up, like a C.E.O. or maybe Mattis, as his chief,” he added, referring to Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.
The signature image of Mr. Trump’s first 100 days in office, people close to the president said, is that of Mr. Priebus standing just inside the open door of the Oval Office, agitated and rolling his eyes, as Mr. Trump beckons another seemingly random gaggle of aides, friends, family, visitors, reporters — even the White House decorator — in for an unstructured chat or, worst of all, policy discussions.
Mr. Priebus, who has said he has self-diagnosed obsessive-compulsive disorder, tried at first to restrict these interactions, often by keeping the president busy with ceremonial events like executive order signings and meetings with business leaders.
Over time, Mr. Trump bridled and demanded the unstructured time he had so valued as an executive at Trump Tower. Mr. Priebus, who initially outsourced the details of Oval Office scheduling and paper flow to a deputy, has now taken over those tasks himself. He has reduced the pace of public events and, like a Montessori teacher, modulates structured work time with the slack periods Mr. Trump craves.
In recent days, Mr. Priebus cut back on his stalking-butler tendency to hover over the president, realizing his antsy boss had grown resentful of his constant companionship. “What are you doing in here? Don’t you have health care to take care of?” Mr. Trump asked Mr. Priebus at one recent meeting around his desk, according to a senior White House official.



B11370825.151252818.gif

That entails trying to cut the number of Oval Office meeting attendees from 15 to eight or fewer, according to an aide.
One small but significant recent victory: excluding Omarosa Manigault, the former “Apprentice” contestant and Trump favorite, from as many meetings as possible.
Mr. Priebus leaving Air Force One in West Palm Beach, Fla., in February. He is regarded as one of the least powerful White House chiefs of staff.
AL DRAGO / THE NEW YORK TIMES
“The trains are now running on time,” said Thomas Barrack Jr., a close friend of Mr. Trump’s, reflecting a prevailing sense even among Mr. Priebus’s critics in the White House that the situation has improved.
That does not mean Mr. Priebus is entirely running things. He is often elbowed out by a half-dozen other West Wing players — chief among them Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who enjoys many of the powers exercised by a chief of staff (he has been described by friends as “a first among equals”), including a virtual veto over some hiring decisions. Mr. Priebus has half-joked that Mr. Kushner has “all the fun” but few of the responsibilities that burden him, according to one longtime Priebus confidant.
“Reince is fundamentally a nice Midwestern guy who is very concerned about not losing friends and not making enemies,” said Charlie Sykes, a veteran Republican operative and radio host in Wisconsin who has been friends with Mr. Priebus for two decades. “He is, at bottom, a pleaser. But he doesn’t want to fail.”
“One of the things that’s made him successful up until now is that he knows how to maintain friendships; he knows how to keep in touch with donors and key players,” Mr. Sykes said. “But I don’t know that he would be the one to crack the whip. At a certain point, you have to be willing to be confrontational and to lose friends. I think that’s very difficult for Reince.”










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But all of these stresses are worth it, Mr. Priebus has told friends.
One of the party’s most formidable fund-raisers, Mr. Priebus, who declined to be interviewed for this article, is accustomed to swallowing his pride to court richer, more powerful men. So he has a high pain threshold for a boss who still views him, in moments of candor, as a leader of the Republican political establishment that once tried to destroy Mr. Trump.
At the height of the Kushner-Bannon spat last month, Mr. Trump instructed both men to “stop it” or face the boot, and delegated to Mr. Priebus the role of evenhanded mediator. Instead, Mr. Priebus interpreted that as a license to forge an alliance with Mr. Kushner, though the first son-in-law has felt free to use his veto power over the chief of staff, including siding with others to keep Mr. Priebus from promoting his preferred choices for his deputy, according to four West Wing aides.
Mr. Priebus has been reluctant to confront Mr. Bannon directly. But he has quietly sought to undermine Mr. Bannon’s agenda and temper his nativist impulses, and has happily assumed the role of establishment soother. At a dinner last week at the Hay-Adams Hotel with a number of prominent Republicans, including former Vice President Dick Cheney, Mr. Priebus assured the attendees that the North American Free Trade Agreement would not be undone the next day, as Mr. Bannon had sought to do, according to three people with knowledge of the interaction.
He has also bonded with Mr. Kushner and his wife, the president’s daughter Ivanka, over what they all see as Mr. Bannon’s hidden war against them in the news media, especially through Breitbart, the site Mr. Bannon used to run. Mr. Kushner was especially incensed by Breitbart’s speculation that Mr. Priebus would soon be replaced by his ally Gary D. Cohn, the National Economic Council chairman, two people close to him said.

ADVERTISEMENT: GUCCI









 
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Mr. Priebus is wounded by the speculation and is intensely protective of his image, forged over seven successful years at the Republican National Committee, of competence and effectiveness, even as some of his own colleagues question it.

He has spent so much time in the Oval Office that his own suite in the southwest corner of the White House remains much as his predecessor, Denis McDonough, left it, complete with its vintage World War II and Vietnam-era photographs of naval battles. His own desk is sparsely decorated and often covered with neatly arrayed note cards on which he has written, in fastidious red Sharpie, his daily to-do list or his talking points.
The wall opposite his standing desk features a triptych of flat-screen TVs tuned to basic cable, and he spends much of his day monitoring the chatter, especially the utterances of his fellow Republicans.
When Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, a Trump ally and the source of speculation as a future chief of staff, visited the White House recently, Mr. Priebus pulled him into the Roosevelt Room to complain about Mr. Christie’s less-than-helpful comments on TV.
“He’ll text you all the time,” Mr. Graham said. “It will be like, ‘Thanks,’ or ‘Why the hell did you say that?’”
Correction: May 5, 2017

An earlier version of this article misattributed a description of Jared Kushner as “a first among equals.” He was described as such by friends; he did not tell friends this.

Thursday, May 4, 2017

Madeleine Albright condemns Donald Trump for saying he would be 'honoured' to meet Kim Jong-Un - Independent

Madeleine Albright condemns Donald Trump for saying he would be 'honoured' to meet Kim Jong-Un
'Honoured would definitely be the wrong way to discuss somebody who is keeping his people in poverty and starving and control,' says former Secretary of State

Maya Oppenheim @mayaoppenheim Wednesday 3 May 2017 17:10 BS

Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has condemned Donald Trump for saying he would be “honoured” to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un.

President Trump stoked controversy on Monday when he said he would meet with the supreme leader if it is “under the right circumstances”.

"If it would be appropriate for me to meet with him, I would absolutely, I would be honoured to do it," the President said in an interview with Bloomberg News. In a separate interview shortly beforehand he referred to Mr Kim as a “smart cookie” for being able to hold on to power in his country.

Albright, the first woman to become the US Secretary of State, said "honoured" was an inappropriate word to use to refer to a meeting with Mr Kim.

"A president doesn't go to a country without any preparation, and 'honoured' would definitely be the wrong way to discuss somebody who is keeping his people in poverty and starving and control," Albright said on CNN.

The Democrat argued the billionaire property developer was overly keen to develop personal relationships with world leaders without acknowledging the concrete political consequences they could have.

"I think that part of the issue is that President Trump seems to believe that he can have just one-on-one relationships. And maybe that's possible in business, but that is not something that is possible as president of the United States," she said. "This is not a matter of charming, by saying you're 'honoured' and he's a 'smart cookie.' "

Albright is one of the most high-profile American diplomats to have visited North Korea on official business and met with the former North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang in 2000. Nevertheless, no American President has yet to meet with the leader of North Korea during their tenure and the notion remains deeply controversial.

Tensions between the US and North Korea have drastically escalated in recent weeks as American and other intelligence agencies have suggested the country was preparing for a possible nuclear test. The Trump administration has said all options, including a military strike, are on the table.

What would a meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un look like?
White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer responded to Mr Trump’s bold claims about potentially meeting Mr Kim during a daily briefing, saying the conditions for a meeting between the pair “were not there yet”.

Mr Trump first offered to meet the North Korean leader during the election campaign last June in an attempt to emphasise the differences between him and his Democrat rival Hillary Clinton.

“What the hell is wrong with speaking? And you know what? It’s called opening a dialogue. It’s opening a dialogue,” he said at the time. “If he came here, I’d accept him, but I wouldn’t give him a state dinner like we do for China and all these other people that rip us off when we give them these big state dinners.”

He suggested he would serve Mr Kim and other visiting leaders “a hamburger on a conference table”.

Why Trump’s Budding Bromance With Xi Is Doomed - New York Times

Why Trump’s Budding Bromance With Xi Is Doomed

By JANE PERLEZ
MAY 3, 2017
BEIJING — President Xi Jinping of China and President Trump, despite vastly different personal styles, have several things in common.
They were both born to privilege. They both possess boundless self-confidence. Each seeks advice from a select inner circle, ignoring the big bureaucracies of his government.
Mr. Trump, not known for his effusive praise of world leaders, has talked up their relationship, saying in an interview on CBS’s “Face the Nation” last weekend that his relationship with China was “already acclaimed as being something very special, something very different than we’ve ever had.” He called Mr. Xi “a man that I’ve gotten to like and respect.”
But beneath the bonhomie, Chinese analysts say, fundamental differences of strategic interest are likely to undermine any personal ties Mr. Trump says he has forged with the Chinese leader. The romance, they say, may be more a short marriage of convenience.
Mr. Trump’s public effusiveness is barely reciprocated in China. The state-run media accords Mr. Trump polite coverage, much more so than it did President Barack Obama — a signal that the government, for the time being, would like the Chinese people to view the American president in a positive light.

Among foreign policy experts, however, there is skepticism that Mr. Trump’s flattery of Mr. Xi, and his reliance on the Chinese leader to bear down on North Korea over its nuclear program, will bring the results he wants.
Mr. Trump has said he would give Mr. Xi more on a trade deal if China — North Korea’s main trading partner and sole major ally — cracked down on its recalcitrant neighbor. “I think that, frankly, North Korea is maybe more important than trade,” Mr. Trump said last weekend.
In essence, the Trump administration is asking China to apply maximum economic pressure on the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, so that he will relinquish his nuclear arsenal, or at least agree to negotiate on Washington’s terms.
Analysts say Mr. Xi is likely to take steps to curb the activities of some Chinese companies that help North Korea with the foreign exchange it badly needs, but not all of them. They say he may even, at some point, shut down the oil supply from China that keeps the economy afloat — but if so, only for a short period.
Some analysts said Mr. Trump’s own predictability should not be taken for granted.
“He needs China to help implement what he wants on North Korea,” said Yan Xuetong, director of the Institute for International Relations at Tsinghua University. “It won’t work. Trump will change his attitude to China very soon. I don’t think he will be so nice to our president for very long. His policy toward China is not durable.”
Others noted that it would be against China’s national security interests to side with the United States against North Korea.
“I think this ends unhappily,” said Douglas H. Paal, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “In the end, China is not going to deliver North Korea on our doorstep. China will say: ‘We’ve done these things. What are you so upset about?’ ”

Mr. Trump, who likes to do business by phone, is acquiring a reputation for pestering Mr. Xi. He called the Chinese president four days after their summit meeting in Florida last month, saying afterward on Twitter that he had had “a very good call” with Mr. Xi about the “menace of North Korea.”
He called again on April 23. Mr. Paal said he was told by Chinese officials that after that call, Mr. Xi did not appreciate being treated like a midlevel official. Mr. Trump should realize that the Chinese president sets the framework for policies but cannot be expected to keep a checklist of tasks, the officials told him.
Still, Mr. Trump’s impulse to reach out to Mr. Xi is in the tradition of some of the smoothest moments of relations between the two countries, and it plays to China’s long-held preference to conduct policy through personal relationships.
“Chinese leaders have demonstrated over and over again that they like to operate through personal relationships — like Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai with Henry Kissinger,” said James Mann, a fellow in residence at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and the author of “About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship With China, From Nixon to Clinton.”
“It’s a matter of Chinese culture,” Mr. Mann said, “but it also serves their interests, because personalized diplomacy helps them overcome the idea that China should be treated by the same impersonal rules and policies that apply everywhere else.”
It is not unusual for a new American president to reach out to a foreign leader, even an adversarial one, in an attempt to break a pattern of the past.
Early in his tenure, President George W. Bush praised President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, saying he had “looked the man in the eye. I found him very straightforward and trustworthy — I was able to get a sense of his soul.”

Condoleezza Rice, the former secretary of state, later wrote in her memoir that Mr. Bush’s remark had made him appear gullible. “We were never able to escape the perception that the president had naïvely trusted Putin and then been betrayed,” she said.
Though they come from vastly different worlds, Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump were both born into privilege. Mr. Xi’s father, Xi Zhongxun, was a senior general under Mao during the civil war and helped the Communists come to power. Mr. Trump’s father, Fred C. Trump, was a major New York City builder who left a fortune to his son.
Both men rely on a small group of people to help craft their decisions. For Mr. Xi, Li Zhanshu and Wang Huning, two secretive officials who travel with him everywhere, are said to be the most influential.
For Mr. Trump, his daughter Ivanka, and her husband, Jared Kushner, outstrip everyone else. It is Mr. Kushner who has served as the go-between for Mr. Trump in his dealings with the Chinese. He has convinced his father-in-law of the importance of good relations with China, and encouraged him to play up the personal relationship with Mr. Xi, American analysts familiar with the arrangements said.
Mr. Xi has consistently shown contempt for Kim Jong-un and declined to meet with him, unlike Mr. Trump, who said Monday that he would meet with the North Korean leader if the circumstances were right.
But Mr. Xi’s remoteness from Mr. Kim should not be taken to mean that he will do what Mr. Trump wants and force North Korea to change its behavior, Chinese analysts said.

“There is no possibility for China to fix the situation,” said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. “That’s because China does not want a nuclear-armed enemy in North Korea.”
NYT