Thursday, June 15, 2017

Mueller Examining Whether Trump Sought to Slow Flynn Probe - Bloomberg


Mueller Examining Whether Trump Sought to Slow Flynn Probe
by Chris Strohm
15 June 2017, 10:36 am AEST
The special counsel investigating Russia’s interference in the 2016 election plans to interview two top U.S. intelligence officials about whether President Donald Trump sought their help to get the FBI to back off a related probe of former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, according to three people familiar with the inquiry.
The move expands the scope of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. It had initially focused on Russia’s election meddling and whether any of Trump’s associates colluded with the effort. Now it appears Mueller is examining the president’s own conduct, which may include whether Trump tried to obstruct justice.
Mueller is seeking to interview Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and National Security Agency Director Mike Rogers, according to the people, who asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. Separately, Coats is scheduled to testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee in a closed session Thursday.
A spokesman for Trump’s outside lawyer reacted angrily Wednesday, accusing the Federal Bureau of Investigation of breaking the law by disclosing the information.
‘Outrageous’ Leak
“The FBI leak of information regarding the President is outrageous, inexcusable and illegal,” Mark Corallo, the spokesman for Trump’s legal team, said in an email.
Corallo didn’t elaborate on why he singled out the FBI as the source of information. Mueller’s decision to talk with the two officials was reported earlier by the Washington Post.
At a hearing last week of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Coats and Rogers refused to say whether they were asked by Trump to help impede an FBI investigation and suggested any response in a closed hearing would require consultations with White House lawyers on whether executive privilege should be invoked.
“To the best of my recollection, I have never been directed to do anything I believe to be illegal, immoral, unethical or inappropriate,” Rogers said at the hearing, without answering whether he was asked -- but not directed -- to back off.
Mueller’s plans emerged just a week after former FBI Director James Comey told the Senate Intelligence Committee that Trump pressed him in February to ease up on an investigation into Flynn. Flynn was forced to resign for misleading administration officials about his contacts with Russia’s U.S. ambassador.
Comey also said Trump repeatedly sought assurances that he wasn’t a target of the Russia investigation. Comey said he told the president on three occasions that he wasn’t personally under investigation.
But Comey suggested he expected Mueller would look into whether Trump’s efforts to intervene in the FBI inquiry amounted to obstruction of justice.
Trump said when he dismissed Comey on May 9 that the reason was the former FBI chief’s handling of the investigation into Democrat Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server. He cited the recommendation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions and his deputy, Rod Rosenstein. 
But days later he said in an NBC interview that he had decided to fire Comey before getting their input and he was thinking of “this Russia thing” when he did it.
“Regardless of recommendation, I was going to fire Comey knowing there was no good time to do it,” Trump told Lester Holt of NBC News in an interview broadcast May 11. “And in fact, when I decided to just do it, I said to myself -- I said, you know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made-up story.”
Shifting Reasons
Comey told senators on June 8 that Trump’s shifting explanations for dismissing him were “lies, plain and simple.” Trump and the White House disputed Comey’s description of the events.
Mueller was appointed special counsel after Comey’s firing. He’s been building a team of investigators for a wide-ranging inquiry into Russia’s meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign.
He met with the two top members of the Senate Intelligence Committee Wednesday to discuss preventing conflicts in their separate investigations into Russian election interference, and he’s set to meet with House Intelligence panel leaders in coming days.
Despite suggestions by a Trump friend in a television interview that the president was weighing dismissing Mueller as special counsel, the White House declared late Tuesday that there was no such plan.
“While the president has the right to, he has no intention to do so,” Trump spokeswoman Sarah Sanders told reporters.
A White House ethics waiver that allows chief strategist Steve Bannon to talk to his former employer Breitbart News is “problematic,” the top federal ethics official said in a letter Tuesday.
President Donald Trump’s appointees are required to sign an ethics pledge saying they’ll avoid particular matters involving former employees for two years. But the waiver, one of several pertaining to its staff members that the White House released May 31, allows staffers to “participate in communications and meetings with news organizations regarding broad policy matters.”
The unsigned, undated waiver could be applied retroactively -- essentially allowing staff members who violated an ethics pledge to avoid disciplinary action, wrote Walter Shaub, the director of the federal Office of Government Ethics.
Bannon ran Breitbart, a conservative media site, before he joined Trump’s campaign in 2016. The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
OGE doesn’t know whether there were any violations of the ethics pledge based on communications with news agencies -- by Bannon or anyone else, Shaub wrote in a June 13 letter responding to inquiries from four Democratic senators. The agency is preparing a full report about waivers Trump’s administration has granted, he said.
“As part of preparing that report, OGE will follow up with the White House and other agencies to request additional information, including whether they are aware of any violations of the ethics pledge,” Shaub wrote.
Overall, federal disclosures show that the Trump administration has issued 14 waivers for White House staff members, along with waivers or partial releases from ethics rules for at least 10 executive-branch officialsacross five agencies.
OGE published the waivers for all the agencies except the White House after Shaub issued a government-wide call for them on April 28. Earlier that month, he had complained to the New York Times that because of a lack of transparency, he had “no idea how many waivers have been issued.”
He tested the presidential waters for Donald Trump and then served as a campaign guard dog, threatening a reporter that he would “mess your life up.” Before long, he was swept up in the questions swirling around the administration and Russia.  
Michael Cohen, an integral part of Trump world for a decade, says he’s preparing to testify before the House intelligence committee on Sept. 5 about its investigation into Moscow’s interference in the U.S. election -- and he’s already fighting back.
“The liberal media has painfully learned that they cannot get under the skin of Donald Trump,” he said in an interview. “To continue this fake Russian narrative, they attack anyone and everyone who is close to the president who knows someone who has a connection to or is involved in any way shape or form to someone from the former Soviet Union. I still cannot figure out why they are obsessing over my relationships that existed in the Ukraine when the Ukraine and Russia are two separate countries who presently don’t even get along.”
For those who suspect that the Trump campaign and the Kremlin colluded, Cohen offers an alluring target. New York business filings list him as an officer of two family financial companies in Ukraine incorporated in 1998, and he and his younger brother were directors of International Ethanol of Ukraine, according to 2006 filings. Cohen visited Georgia in 2010 with the aim of building either a Trump hotel or residential tower on the Black Sea. His wife of 23 years is of Ukrainian extraction, he was long involved with a Ukrainian businessman in the rough-and-tumble New York City taxicab business and he was named in an uncorroborated dossier about Russian interference compiled by a former British spy.
Cohen has been quick and absolute in his denial of any inappropriate activity. He said his role in all three companies was to file legal paperwork for family members; none of the businesses got off the ground. And after the spy dossier was published, including a claim he had gone to Prague to meet a Russian, he tweeted a photo of his passport and said he’d never been to Prague.

Cohen, 50, resembles his boss with his in-your-face style, legions of Twitter followers and real estate deal-making history (he says he personally owns 115 apartments in New York City). For years, he held the title of special counsel to Trump. Today, he’s Trump’s “personal lawyer,” separate from White House counsel and from attorneys, including Marc Kasowitz, Trump has hired to handle Russia inquiries. To those who know the Trump cast of characters, Cohen fits a pattern.
“There’s a definite type that Trump has been drawn to through the years, and they’re people who share his kind of street sensibility,” said Marc Fisher, co-author of the recent biography “Trump Revealed” and senior editor at the Washington Post. “He likes tough guys, he likes people who he thinks shoot from the gut and are direct and don’t hold back in any way.”
Cohen grew up on Long Island and has the accent to prove it; after American University in Washington, and law school at Western Michigan University, he returned to New York to practice law. He married into a Ukrainian family and began buying taxi medallions. By 2003, campaigning for New York City Council, Cohen listed his occupation as “Businessman, Attorney and Community Activist” and ran a fleet of more than 200 taxis, according to a voter guide. (He lost.) 
Cabs were a good investment: Legal filings in a contractual dispute with his long-time partner, a polo-playing Ukrainian émigré named Simon Garber, show that he and his wife were pulling in $90,000 a month from their medallions in 2011. Other ventures weren’t as lucrative, like an unsuccessful $1.5 million investment in a Miami gambling cruise boat.
His enthusiasm for high-end real estate brought him to Trump. Over the years, Cohen and his family have owned apartments in Trump World Tower near the United Nations, as well as in Trump Palace on 69th Street and Trump Park Avenue. Trump’s oldest son, Donald Jr., recommended Cohen to his father after getting to know him through his investments, Cohen told The Real Deal in February.
The Apprentice
Cohen joined Trump on the upswing, as “The Apprentice” was turning the developer of troubled Atlantic City casinos into a world-wide reality TV phenomenon. His title at the Trump Organization was executive vice president and special counsel, and he served on the boards of the Miss Universe Organization and Trump Productions, as well as the Eric Trump Foundation. His legal work in-house hasn’t left much of a trace in the public record. But he has played a very public role in promoting Trump as a politician.
Cohen scouted in Iowa for Trump in 2011, and started a website to drum up interest in yet another makeover for the political candidate. He defended even his boss’s most controversial utterances in the 2016 race, including the suggestion that Mexicans crossing the border were “rapists.” Cohen called that “potentially and partially true.”
Not long after, he threatened a Daily Beast reporter trying to get a comment for a story about rape allegations Trump’s first wife, Ivana, made during their divorce and later retracted: “You write a story that has Mr. Trump’s name in it, with the word ‘rape,’ and I’m going to mess your life up ... for as long as you’re on this frickin’ planet ... you’re going to have judgments against you, so much money, you’ll never know how to get out from underneath it,” the Daily Beast quoted him as saying. 
‘I Apologized’
Cohen later partially apologized. In the interview with Bloomberg, he elaborated: “I apologized for my inarticulate statement, but I didn’t apologize for my reaction to a query that is disgraceful. I have tremendous admiration and affection for Mr. Trump and the family. To accuse him of such a heinous act was nothing more than a feeble attempt to malign his good name, reputation and thwart his presidential ambition. Clearly, it did not work.”
In February, The New York Times linked Cohen to a proposed peace plan for Ukraine aimed at getting the U.S. to lift sanctions against Moscow. The plan involved leasing Crimea to Russia for 100 years and was developed by Trump business associate Felix Sater and Ukrainian legislator Andrii Artemenko. The paper said Cohen delivered the proposal to the office of Michael Flynn’s, days before the former national security adviser was forced to resign over his own Russia contacts. Cohen says this account is wrong. He said he suggested in a brief encounter with Artemenko that Flynn might be an appropriate conduit, but he himself never read the proposal or delivered it to anyone.
At the end of May, he said House and Senate investigators requestedthat he voluntarily provide information to Congress on Russia. He refused, saying the whole issue was fake. After he was subpoenaed, he said he would cooperate.
The Russia cloud has not prevented Cohen from capitalizing on his Trump ties. In April, the law firm Squire Patton Boggs announced a strategic alliance with Michael D. Cohen & Associates, to continue building a “pre-eminent global public-policy offering.” Also in April, the Republican National Committeeannounced Cohen’s appointment as one of three new national deputy finance chairmen.
A group of almost 200 Democratic lawmakers sued to block President Donald Trump from taking any money from foreign states at his global businesses without getting Congressional approval first, claiming his acceptance of such benefits violates the Constitution.
It’s the latest shot at the Trump administration from Democrats on Capitol Hill, who on Tuesday pressed his Attorney General Jeff Sessions for information about his role in the probe into the Trump campaign’s links to Russia. It’s an issue the Democrats also brought up in the lawsuit.
As Trump “decides how to shape U.S. policy toward Russia, he may be influenced by his long-standing, though yet unrealized, desire to build housing and hotels in Russia,” the Democrats said.
Trump has stepped down from running his $3 billion empire but retained his ownership interests, a decision the lawmakers say violates the Foreign Emoluments clause in the U.S. Constitution that forbids the president from receiving payments or gifts from foreign governments without Congress’s approval.
The lawsuit lists a slew of such alleged benefits that the president has already received, including China’s approvals of Trump-business-related trademarks in the country, payments for hotel rooms and events and payments he gets from leases at Trump Tower, whose tenants include the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Abu Dhabi Tourism & Culture Authority, both of which are government-owned.
A White House official said Trump’s business interests don’t violate the constitutional clause and called the lawsuit politically motivated. The White House will review the complaint, but the official, who asked not to be named, said officials expect the Department of Justice will ask the judge to throw it out.
In a similar lawsuit filed in January by a Washington government-watchdog group, lawyers for the Justice Department said history shows the emoluments clause doesn’t apply to fair-market transactions, including hotel bills, golf club fees and office rents, like those in which Trump is engaged. The government’s response to that lawsuit cited business activity with foreign countries by presidents going back to George Washington.
“My skepticism borders on disbelief,” said Jonathan Turley, a professor at George Washington University Law School who has argued that Congress should have a greater right to sue over constitutional questions than courts generally allow. He also represented House Republicans in a lawsuit against President Barack Obama’s signature health-care law.
The fact that Congress hasn’t attempted to get information on the alleged emoluments "dramatically undermines the legal action," Turley said. “This is off-the-map in terms of a legally cognizable claim.”
Precedent generally holds that individual legislators can’t sue to enforce a law unless they’ve somehow been deprived of a vote. The Democrats say that’s happened because Trump failed to seek Congressional approval to keep the foreign payments.
Courts have rarely had the opportunity to define emoluments -- a key question in the debate over whether any aspect of Trump’s businesses activities might constitute violation of the clause.
Maryland and the District of Columbia sued earlier this week, claiming the president is violating both foreign and domestic emoluments clauses of the constitution with his businesses benefiting from his position.
The Democrats claim in their lawsuit that Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns -- he’s the first president in 40 years not to have done that -- and the complicated interconnections between the hundreds of business entities and shell companies in which he has a stake “makes it impossible to determine the full scope of the benefits he is currently accepting from foreign states.”
Tax Returns
If the lawsuit is allowed to proceed, the Democrats would likely press for the release of those returns as part of a document exchange ahead of trial.
Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal and Michigan Representative John Conyers led the lawsuit, backed by 29 other senators and 165 House members.
The Constitutional Accountability Center, a think tank and law firm “dedicated to fulfilling the progressive promise of our Constitution’s text and history,” represents the Democrats in court.
Trump has put his assets in a trust and put his two oldest sons in charge, but he has retained an ownership stake, prompting an outcry from the director of the Office of Government Ethics. Walter Shaub Jr. called the move “meaningless.”
Trump’s family business had said it would donate any profit derived from foreign government sources to the U.S. Treasury, but softened that pledge last month when it said it’ll just estimate the profit its hotels earn from foreign governments.
The company said in a pamphletshared with members of Congress that its effort might not capture every dollar spent by foreign officials at Trump’s hotels because looking into all patrons’ backgrounds would invade their privacy.
The Democrats’ complaint lists examples of several former presidents, including Abraham Lincoln, John F. Kennedy and Barack Obama, who took steps to comply with the Emoluments Clause. In the case of Kennedy, he declined to accept the honor of Irish citizenship in 1963 from the government of Ireland.
The Democrats also noted cases in which the activities of U.S. government employees or retirees were found to have fallen within the scope of the clause, including ’a NASA employee’s receipt of a $150 consulting fee for reviewing a Ph.D. thesis’ and ’a gift of photographs to U.S. military and civilian officers by a foreign prince.”
The case is Blumenthal v. Trump, 17-cv--01154, U.S. District Court, District of Columbia (Washington).




Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Donald Trump blocking accounts on Twitter 'violates US Constitution' - Independent

 Donald Trump blocking accounts on Twitter 'violates US Constitution'
The president has repeatedly sought to avoid criticism by banning people from his account
Donald Trump has caught 500,000 veterans in one of his recent blocking sprees.
The president has taken to blocking his critics on Twitter, apparently in an attempt to stop them from making him look bad. And now VoteVets – a political group campaigning on behalf of veterans – has alllegedly been caught up in that block.
"The Commander in Chief can block @VoteVets, the voice of 500k military veterans and families, but we will NOT be silenced," the group posted on Twitter, alongside an image of the message that shows when an account has been blocked.
The left-leaning group drew support from across the political spectrum, from veterans as well as others. VoteVets focuses on progressive politics but represents hundreds of thousands of veterans who live across the US.
The group has been critical of Mr Trump's policies, including his "Muslim ban". Some of the posts criticising those policies have included Mr Trump's handle, meaning that it may potentially have shown up on his phone – which presumably led to the block.
The group is just the latest in a huge number of people who have been blocked by the president, in what appears to be a new social media strategy. After a range of people took to criticising him on Twitter – including by replying to his posts, so that they showed to everyone who looked at them – he appears to have decided to block them so that they can't see any of his posts or reply to them.


Tuesday, June 13, 2017

When Donald Trump and family decry ‘viciousness’ of modern politics, you know irony is dead - Washington Post

When Donald Trump and family decry ‘viciousness’ of modern politics, you know irony is dead
Eric and Ivanka bemoan 'ferocity' of Washington on Fox News, conveniently overlooking father's sharp tongue on the campaign trail
For the second time in a week, one of President Donald Trump'schildren took to the Fox News airwaves to complain about just how rough-and-tumble our political system is.
A few days after Eric Trumpdecried the political left as “not even people” over its “hatred” and treatment of his father, Ivanka Trump went on Fox and Friends on Monday morning and decried the “viciousness” of Washington.
“There's a level of viciousness that I was not expecting,” she said. “I was not expecting the intensity of this experience.”
Here's what Eric Trump said a few days ago on Sean Hannity's show:
“I've never seen hatred like this, and to me they're not even people. It's so, so sad, I mean morality is just gone, morals have flown out the window we deserve so much better than this as a country. You know it's so sad.”
This seems to be a talking point for the White House now. And it is ridiculous. Not because politics in Washington isn't vicious - it certainly can be and is - but because Ivanka and Eric Trump's father's political rise was marked by probably the nastiest and most bare-knuckled brand of public campaigning that we've seen in modern history
In case you've blocked out everything that happened between June 2015 and November 2016 (which=understandable), here is a quick refresher of the things Donald Trump did as a candidate:
  • Called his chief opponents “Lyin' Ted,” “Crooked Hillary” and “Little Marco”
  • Suggested “Lyin' Ted's” father may have taken part in the Kennedy assassination
  • Said he would put “Crooked Hillary” in jail when president
  • Seemed to allude to potential violence again and again and again
  • Continued his years-long effort to question the legitimacy of President Barack Obama's US birth and, by extension, his entire presidency
  • Appeared to mock a reporter's physical handicap
  • Suggested a judge was inherently biased against him because the judge was of Mexican heritage
  • Said John McCain wasn't a war hero because he was captured
The number of things Trump did that were apparently unprecedented as a candidate and would likely have sunken any other politician were so numerous that Philip Bump spotlighted 23 of them for The Fix - in June 2016, before Trump was even officially nominated by the GOP. Not all of them were vicious, mind you, but most of them were. Trump's campaign was marked by a kind of innuendo and even outright nastiness that we simply haven't seen in a very long time, if ever. It may have worked, but it was certainly nasty.
Which is what makes Eric and Ivanka Trump's comments over the past week so disingenuous. It's like the golf thing. In a vacuum, President Trump golfing so frequently as president isn't a bad thing. But when he spent years attacking Obama for golfing even less frequently than he does now and suggested presidents shouldn't spend so much time golfing, it makes his golfing blatantly hypocritical. It makes him look like he has no real moral centre or true system of beliefs.
Similarly, when you spend the better part of 17 months habitually breaking political norms with your unusually nasty campaign, you can't spend time during your presidency complaining about the nastiness of the political system that you will now oversee as president.
That's trying to have it both ways, which happens to be one of the few things the Trump White House is consistent about.

The Washington Post

Monday, June 12, 2017

How Trump Digs a Deeper Legal Hole When He Tweets - Bloomberg

How Trump Digs a Deeper Legal Hole When He Tweets
Violating the lawyer’s rule of thumb that clients remain quiet is rarely a good idea.
by Paul Barrett
12 June 2017, 6:00 pm AEST

U.S. President Donald Trump.  Photographer: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA
President Donald Trump can’t be stopped from tweeting and otherwise talking about the Russia investigation. But by continuing to expostulate, he risks not only incriminating himself but irritating the prosecutor overseeing the probe. 

Some observers speculated that the arrival of Trump’s personal lawyer, Marc Kasowitz, would spell the end of the president’s off-the-cuff comments. Not so. Whatever Kasowitz has told his longtime client, the president is still running his mouth. 

On Sunday morning, the president tweeted: “I believe the James Comey leaks will be far more prevalent than anyone ever thought possible. Totally illegal? Very ‘cowardly!’”
Two days earlier, during a testy Rose Garden press conference, he accusedComey of perjury during his testimony last Thursday before the Senate Intelligence Committee. In addition, Trump declared that the hearing failed to establish that he’d colluded with the Russians to manipulate the 2016 election or tried to stop the federal probe of whether Trump aides helped the Russians with their hacking. “No collusion. No obstruction. He’s a leaker,” Trump said, the last part referring again to Comey, whom Trump fired as FBI director in May. Asked if he’d testify under oath, Trump answered, “100 percent.”
So, why does this matter? First, there’s the attorney’s rule of thumb that a client anywhere in the vicinity of a criminal investigation ought to keep his trap shut. “It’s 100 percent clear that the rule in the normal criminal case is not a word from the client,” says Harry Litman, a former federal prosecutor who teaches at UCLA Law School and practices with the firm Constantine Cannon. “A president may have different political imperatives, but Trump’s tweet logorrhea does not reflect a well-thought-out strategy.”
Appearing on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina imagined warning Trump: “You may be the first president in history to go down because you can’t stop inappropriately talking about an investigation that, if you just were quiet, would clear you.” 
A talkative client runs the risk of intensifying prosecutorial scrutiny. In this case, the prosecutor is Special Counsel Robert Mueller. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that it’s highly unlikely Mueller saw the Comey hearing as exonerating Trump of obstruction of justice. To the contrary, Mueller is almost certainly investigating the related Michael Flynn and Comey-firing angles.
Flynn  probe: According to Comey, the president said in February that he hoped Comey would drop the part of the investigation focused on Flynn, the dismissed national security adviser. Three times during the Friday press conference Trump replied to questions by unreservedly denying he said any such thing to Comey. If Mueller finds Comey more credible on this point—and Comey says he’s turned over to Mueller contemporaneous notes of all his conversations with the president—Trump’s public denials make it more likely the special counsel will view the president as a liar.
Comey firing: Mueller will also explore whether Trump’s firing of Comey was part of an attempt to obstruct the investigation. Comey certainly thinks so, having testified, “I take the president at his word that I was fired because of the Russia investigation.” Trump himself provided the basis for Comey’s position. During a May 11 television interview, the president admitted that he was thinking about the Russia probe when he decided to oust Comey.
Trump, through his comments, has limited his lawyer’s maneuvering room. The “100 percent” promise means that if Mueller asks the president to testify under oath—and Mueller eventually will ask—the president has unilaterally disarmed himself from arguing that there’s some reason he shouldn’t have to be questioned under penalty of perjury.
Finally, there’s the squishier issue that Trump’s attempts to smear Comey may well bother Mueller on a personal level. When he was FBI director in the 2000s, Mueller worked with Comey, then the deputy U.S. attorney general. The Boston Globe observes: “The two men have had similar careers. Both have been top federal prosecutors. Both have been FBI directors. Several people who know both men say they respect each other.”
Mueller has a reputation for independence, and he’s not going to go after Trump to vindicate a former colleague. But even prosecutors are human beings. There’s simply no way that the president’s attempted assassination of Comey’s character can fail to color Mueller’s opinion of Trump’s credibility and stature. 
A caveat: Trump’s status as president probably protects him from criminal prosecution while he’s in office. And impeachment, the constitutionally enshrined method for removing a president, isn’t likely as long as Republicans control Congress. 
But let’s imagine Mueller develops evidence of wrongdoing by Trump. Let’s further imagine that after due deliberation, Mueller issues a report, say, next year. That report could come just in time to help shape the 2018 elections and the chances that a potential Democratic-controlled Congress does take a swing at impeachment, using the report as its guide.

The president may not be thinking about this possibility, but his lawyers should be.

Four BRICs don’t quite make a wall - Economist

Four BRICs don’t quite make a wall
Brazil, Russia, India and China have done even better than forecast—thanks mainly to China

EMERGING markets have been through a lot over the past four years. The “taper tantrum” in 2013 (prompted by fears of a change in American monetary policy); the oil-price drop in 2014; China’s botched devaluation of its currency in 2015; and India’s botched “demonetisation” of much of its own currency in late 2016 (removing high-value banknotes from circulation). But 2017 has started more brightly. Indeed, for the first time in two and a half years, the world’s four biggest emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China, known as the BRICs) are all growing at the same time.
Russia’s GDP bottomed out at the end of 2015 (using seasonally adjusted figures) after the longest recession since the 1990s. It has expanded at a gathering pace for the past three quarters. Higher oil prices have helped, though Russia cannot profit fully from the improved market by ramping up sales without violating the production limits that caused the market’s recovery.
During the collapse of the rouble in late 2014 and early 2015, it was easy to forget some of Russia’s economic strengths, such as its consistent trade surpluses and its substantial foreign-exchange reserves (which never fell below $300bn). As Russia has regained its footing, the rouble has rebounded, gaining 15% against the dollar over the past 12 months, making it one of the world’s best-performing currencies.
Brazil’s torment has been even more prolonged. Its economy contracted for eight consecutive quarters as commodity prices tumbled, a president was impeached and a corrupt political class was impugned. Brazil’s political scandals remain far from resolved, but at least the weather has improved. Generous summer rains in states like Bahia contributed to a bumper harvest of soyabeans and corn in the early months of the year. That helped Brazil’s GDP expand by 1% in the first quarter (an annualised pace of over 4%). Since bumper harvests cannot be repeated every three months, some economists fear GDP may shrink again in the second quarter, but many forecasters believe growth will be positive for 2017 as a whole.
Faster growth has not jeopardised price stability. Rather, inflation has eased in Brazil, just as in Russia and India. Whether lower inflation will allow Brazil’s central bank to make further big interest-rate cuts partly depends on a new political furore engulfing Michel Temer, the president. If that prevents the government from reforming social security and curbing fiscal excess, the central bank may be loth to soften its stance dramatically, lest fiscal indiscipline and monetary easing combine to weaken the currency and push up prices.
If inflation has been too high in recent years in Brazil, it has been too low in China. Thanks to downward pressure on prices and the currency, China’s economy actually shrank in dollar terms in 2016 for the first time in 22 years. But the deflationary threat has since receded and the yuan has strengthened this year against the greenback, as capital outflows have been tamed. Indeed, China’s central bank may have resumed adding to its foreign-exchange reserves, which increased by $24bn in May, having declined by about $1trn since their peak in 2014 as capital fled.

Will the resumption of growth in Brazil and Russia (and the return of “dollar growth” in China) breathe new life into the BRICs brand? The term was coined by Jim O’Neill, when he was chief economist of Goldman Sachs, and took on a life of its own. The countries’ leaders began holding an annual summit, inviting South Africa to join as an additional member. They also set up a development bank, with its headquarters in Shanghai but headed by an Indian, which now has operations in all five countries, having approved its first loan to Brazil in April. (Lord O’Neill has always felt that South Africa, a country of only 56m people with a GDP of less than $300bn, was too small to stand alongside his original quartet. And so far this year, the fifth member’s fortunes have diverged from the others’, as South Africa’s economy slipped into a recession in the first quarter.)
Having christened the BRICs in 2001, Goldman Sachs later sketched out their futures over the next five decades in a paper entitled “Dreaming with BRICs”, published in 2003. The investment bank then upgraded those growth projections in 2011 in light of the BRICs’ strong performance over the previous decade. That proved to be a mistake. Of the four economies, only China’s dollar GDP has kept pace with those optimistic 2011 projections (see chart). The others have fallen short of them by a combined $3trn.
A similar disappointment befell stockmarket investors. The BRIC equity index compiled by MSCI has lost 40% since its 2007 peak. In October 2015 Goldman Sachs folded one of its BRIC equity funds, meant for American investors, into a broader emerging-market product (“a more holistic solution in emerging-markets equity”, in its words). These setbacks seemed to vindicate the curmudgeonly sneer cited by Peter Tasker, of Arcus Investment, dismissing the BRICs as a “Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept”.
But if the BRICs have not sustained the euphoria of 2011, they have amply fulfilled the original “dream”, as articulated by Lord O’Neill in 2001 and quantified by his team two years later. Even after their recent tribulations, their combined GDP ($16.6trn) remains far greater than the Goldman team envisaged back in 2003 ($11.6trn). Only Russia has failed to live up to those early expectations. China has easily surpassed them. In Brazil, growth was slower than Goldman Sachs projected but the country’s real exchange rate appreciated further than they imagined, boosting its GDP in dollar terms.
Moreover, at some point after 2015, the BRICs became unmodish enough to count once again as good investments. Since Goldman Sachs closed its fund, the BRIC stockmarket index has gained almost 20%.
The trickiest problem for the BRIC concept may be its final consonant. China contributed about half of the club’s GDP in 2001 and now accounts for fully two-thirds of it. China is also home to most of the group’s biggest companies. Eight out of the ten largest stocks in the MSCI BRIC index are from China, including Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent (a tech trio that have their own acronym, BAT). As its markets grow and open up to capital inflows, China seems destined to become an asset class in its own right, one that is hard to contain in a “holistic” emerging-market fund, let alone a narrower four-country vehicle. The biggest threat to the BRIC idea may not be the quartet’s economic shortcomings but the singular success of its largest member.

This article appeared in the Finance and economicssection of the print edition under the headline "Awaking with BRICs"

Donald Trump state visit: Timing now in doubt after President 'voices protest fears' - Independent

Donald Trump state visit: Timing now in doubt after President 'voices protest fears'
The President does not want to visit the UK until the public supports him, sources say

Donald Trump has reportedly told Theresa May that he does not want to visit the UK soon for fear of large-scale protests against him.
Ms May invited Mr Trump to Britain seven days after his inauguration. Now he apparently wants to wait until the British public supports him coming.
The US President made the 

admission in a recent phone call to the Prime Minister, a Downing Street adviser who was present for the call told The Guardian. The aide said Ms May seemed surprised. 
Mr Trump – never a favouriteamong British voters – stoked outcry in recent weeks for attacking London Mayor Sadiq Khan in the wake of terrorist attacks in the city.
The President ridiculed Mr Khan’s calls for calm, and later condemned the Mayor’s “pathetic excuse” for his statements.
The comments drove even Ms May to say that Mr Trump was “wrong”. Some MPs – and Mr Khan himself – suggested she cancel Mr Trump’s visit to the UK.
“Show some bottle please PM,” David Lammy, senior Labour MP, tweeted. “Cancel the state visit and tell Trump where to get off.”
Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, has also expressed his support for cancelling the trip.
A spokesperson for Ms May, however, told Reuters that “the Queen extended an invitation to President Trump to visit the UK and there is no change to those plans”.
British police stopped sharing intelligence with the US about the Manchester terrorist attack after photos of the investigation were leaked to the media.
The Foreign Office was also reportedly upset with Mr Trump’s decision to remove the US from the Paris climate agreement.
Mr Trump did not visit the UK on his first foreign trip as President, choosing instead to visit Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the Vatican. He also attended summits in Italy and Belgium. The White House recently announced that his next foreign trip will include a visit Poland.
Businessman Woody Johnson has been named as the new US ambassador to the UK, but the President has yet to formally nominate him.
The Independent has contacted the White House for comment.


Sunday, June 11, 2017

Ireland's prime minister warns Theresa May over deal with DUP - Independent

Ireland's prime minister warns Theresa May over deal with DUP
Taoiseach Enda Kenny said the arrangement must not jeopardise the Good Friday Agreement

Ireland’s prime minister has issued a warning to Theresa May over her plans to do a deal with the DUP to prop up a Tory minority government.
Enda Kenny, who has been Taoiseach since 2011, said he had indicated his “concern” to the prime minister over the plan.
Mr Kenny suggested that the arrangement, if poorly handled, could jeopardise the peace process in Northern Ireland. 
He also raised concerns about the lack of a nationalist voice in favour of a united Ireland at Westminster – where the SDLP are now wiped out and Sinn Fein do not take their seats on principle.
He tweeted on Sunday: “Spoke with prime minister May - indicated my concern that nothing should happen to put Good Friday Agreement at risk, and [the] absence of nationalist voice in Westminster.”
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is the biggest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly and is currently engaged in a negotiations after the collapse of the powersharing administration that runs the Northern Ireland Executive. 

Mr Kenny is the outgoing Taoiseach and will soon be replaced by Ireland's Taoiseach-elect Leo Varadkar, who won a Fine Gael internal party election earlier this month.

Trump's Economic Agenda Is Almost Dead - Bloomberg

Trump's Economic Agenda Is Almost Dead

A once-in-a-generation opportunity is slipping away.
2

Saturday, June 10, 2017

Why Donald Trump’s Attempt to Go After James Comey Could Backfire - NBC News

POLITICS JUN 10 2017, 6:51 AM ET
Why Donald Trump’s Attempt to Go After James Comey Could Backfire
by ALEX SEITZ-WALD
Going after former FBI Director James Comey for leaking could backfire for President Donald Trump, experts warned Friday after Trump's personal attorney is said to be preparing to lodge a formal complaint.
As part of their broader effort to discredit Comey, Trump and his defenders have seized on his revelation that the former FBI director allowed a friend to share a memo detailing his conversation with the president to the press.
Comey told the Senate Intelligence Committee Thursday that he leaked the document in the hope it would trigger the appointment of a special prosecutor.
Despite so many false statements and lies, total and complete vindication...and WOW, Comey is a leaker!
A source close to Trump’s outside legal team said the president's personal attorney, Marc Kasowitz, will file a complaint regarding Comey’s leaked memo with the Department of Justice's Inspector General and the Senate Judiciary Committee.
But legal experts say it's impossible to find any obvious violation in Comey's behavior, arguing instead that Kasowitz's threat is more likely a meritless attempt to bully Comey — which could have unintended ramifications for Trump. 
"While Comey was criticized for his public comments during the campaign, none of them, nor the leaked memo, violates DOJ's rule prohibiting disclosure of information to the media,” said Stephen Gillers, an ethics expert at the New York University Law School. 
Meanwhile, Gillers added, "in no circumstance would the Judiciary Committee have jurisdiction to impose a penalty." 
It's unclear what rules exactly the complaint would accuse Comey of violating, since no known complaint was filed before the weekend. 
““They're going to compound the problem.””
Comey recorded details of his meetings with Trump in personal, unclassified memos, and he said he asked a friend to provide the contents to an unnamed reporter. Leaks generally involve classified information, which are protected by law. 
Kathleen Clark, an expert in government ethics at the University of Washington Law School, said there are a number of rules that protect the president's conversations with aides, but that none of them apply here. 
"We do have law that applies here and it's called the First Amendment. And unless there's any other law that prevents that speech, it's protected by the First Amendment,” Clark said. "I'm searching for any possible reasons it could be a problem and can’t find one." The First Amendment protects freedom of speech and the press. 
If the White House believed there were any rules prohibiting Comey from sharing his conversations with the president, they should have asserted that before his testimony, she said. Instead, they publicly waived executive privilege and let Comey’s testimony proceed. 
And it seems unlikely that Comey, who led the FBI as it pursued investigations into government leaks, and thus presumably knows the law here well, would incriminate himself on live TV while testifying before the U.S. Senate, Clark added. 
Kasowitz’s threat is "bluster," Clark said.
Going after former FBI Director James Comey for leaking could backfire for President Donald Trump, experts warned Friday after Trump's personal attorney is said to be preparing to lodge a formal complaint.
As part of their broader effort to discredit Comey, Trump and his defenders have seized on his revelation that the former FBI director allowed a friend to share a memo detailing his conversation with the president to the press.
Comey told the Senate Intelligence Committee Thursday that he leaked the document in the hope it would trigger the appointment of a special prosecutor.
Despite so many false statements and lies, total and complete vindication...and WOW, Comey is a leaker!

A source close to Trump’s outside legal team said the president's personal attorney, Marc Kasowitz, will file a complaint regarding Comey’s leaked memo with the Department of Justice's Inspector General and the Senate Judiciary Committee.
Pres. Trump: Comey Lied Under Oath 2:16
But legal experts say it's impossible to find any obvious violation in Comey's behavior, arguing instead that Kasowitz's threat is more likely a meritless attempt to bully Comey — which could have unintended ramifications for Trump.
"While Comey was criticized for his public comments during the campaign, none of them, nor the leaked memo, violates DOJ's rule prohibiting disclosure of information to the media,” said Stephen Gillers, an ethics expert at the New York University Law School.
Meanwhile, Gillers added, "in no circumstance would the Judiciary Committee have jurisdiction to impose a penalty."
It's unclear what rules exactly the complaint would accuse Comey of violating, since no known complaint was filed before the weekend.
““They're going to compound the problem.””
Comey recorded details of his meetings with Trump in personal, unclassified memos, and he said he asked a friend to provide the contents to an unnamed reporter. Leaks generally involve classified information, which are protected by law.
Kathleen Clark, an expert in government ethics at the University of Washington Law School, said there are a number of rules that protect the president's conversations with aides, but that none of them apply here.
"We do have law that applies here and it's called the First Amendment. And unless there's any other law that prevents that speech, it's protected by the First Amendment,” Clark said. "I'm searching for any possible reasons it could be a problem and can’t find one." The First Amendment protects freedom of speech and the press.
If the White House believed there were any rules prohibiting Comey from sharing his conversations with the president, they should have asserted that before his testimony, she said. Instead, they publicly waived executive privilege and let Comey’s testimony proceed.
And it seems unlikely that Comey, who led the FBI as it pursued investigations into government leaks, and thus presumably knows the law here well, would incriminate himself on live TV while testifying before the U.S. Senate, Clark added.
Kasowitz’s threat is "bluster," Clark said.
Play

He Said, He Said: Comey and Trump's Conflicting Statements 1:39
Richard Painter, the chief White House ethics lawyer in the George W. Bush administration and a frequent Trump critic, said Comey could be considered a witness in the ongoing investigation being led by special counsel Robert Mueller into alleged Russian meddling in last year's elections and related matters.
"The Department of Justice reports to the President of the United States. And the President of the United States is saying, 'you're going to be a witness against me? I'm going to open an investigation against you' — that's clearly witness intimidation, and that itself is obstruction of justice," Painter said.
"So they're going to compound the problem," he said.
Painter said he's never heard of a former government employee being investigated for sharing unclassified information, noting entire shelves could be filled with books written by former officials revealing the inner workings of the White House.
"It's the worst idea in the world," Painter said.

ALEX SEITZ-WALD

10 Industries Hiring Like Crazy This Summer - TIME Business

Posted: 08 Jun 2017 11:24 AM PDT

While summer is approaching rapidly, the summer job season has already taken off.
Job-hunting website Indeed on Thursday released findings from its Hiring Lab on summer-job postings, revealing which industries are hiring the most this summer.
Although school is out for the summer, the education field offered the most postings for summer jobs, including teacher, high school, elementary and art positions.
Many jobs also involved taking care of children in the social and recreational services, which ranked second in opportunities. Childcare, administrative, sales, hospitality, management, protective services, food and nurse job sectors also ranked among the top job categories. However, while hospitality came in sixth for overall summer job listings, they had the highest concentration of summer postings among all listings in that field, according to Indeed.
Many positions were related to summer activities such as pool managers, tour guide, camp managers, life guards and park rangers. The top ten, according to Indeed, are:
  1. Education 
  2. Social/Recreational Service 
  3. Childcare 
  4. Administrative 
  5. Sales 
  6. Hospitality 
  7. Management 
  8. Protective 
  9. Food 
  10. Medical Nurse 
Indeed’s findings looked at job postings with the work “summer” (excluding internships) from Jan. 1-June 1, 2017.

There’s Only One Woman on Forbes’ New List of the 100 Highest-Paid Athletes - TIME


Posted: 08 Jun 2017 08:45 AM PDT

Forbes‘ list of the 100 highest-paid athletes of 2017 is out and only one female is in the mix.
Tennis star Serena Williams, who recently won her 23rd Grand Slam singles tennis title in January while gestating life, earned $27 million over the last year, making her the highest-paid female athlete in the world.
But Williams clocked in at 51 on the 100-person list overall; another tennis star, Roger Federer, landed in the top ten earning more than double that Williams, at $64 million.
The ranking changed little from last year’s, though Maria Sharapova — who held the title of highest-paid female athlete for 11 years before Williams unseated her in 2016 — was noticeably missing. Sharapova, a frequent rival of Williams on the tennis court, was suspended from competing last year after testing positive for performance enhancing drugs.
Another pay-gap fact apparent in the list: Williams, regularly recognized as one of the greatest athletes of all time, has one of the lowest salaries on the entire list — Forbes says she made just $8 million in combined salary and winnings over the last year (compared to, say, soccer star Christiano Ronaldo’s $58 million). Her inclusion on the annual ranking is thanks, in large part, to $19 million in endorsements.
Below is the top 10 athletes on Forbes’ 2017 list:
1. Christiano Ronaldo ($93 million)
2. LeBron James ($86.2 million)
3. Lionel Messi ($80 million)
4. Roger Federer ($64 million)
5. Kevin Durant ($60.6 million)
6. Andrew Luck ($50 million)
7. Rory McIlroy ($50 million)
8. Stephen Curry ($47.3 million)
9. James Harden ($46.6 million)
10. Lewis Hamilton ($46 million)

U.S. seeks to dismiss lawsuit against Trump over foreign payments - Reuters

Fri Jun 9, 2017 | 10:34 PM EDT
U.S. seeks to dismiss lawsuit against Trump over foreign payments

By Dan Levine
The U.S. Department of Justice on Friday called for the dismissal of a lawsuit alleging President Donald Trump violated the constitution by accepting foreign payments at his hotels.
The lawsuit, filed in January, said Trump violates the Constitution's "emoluments" clause, which bars him from accepting gifts from foreign governments without congressional approval, by maintaining ownership over his business empire despite ceding day-to-day control to his sons.
In a filing in Manhattan federal court on Friday, the justice department argued that the plaintiffs in the case - an ethics non-profit, restaurant group and hotel events booker - do not have legal standing to sue. 
The government also said payments to Trump's hotels do not qualify as a violation of the emoluments clause, which is intended to cover personal services performed by the president.
By Dan Levine
The U.S. Department of Justice on Friday called for the dismissal of a lawsuit alleging President Donald Trump violated the constitution by accepting foreign payments at his hotels.
The lawsuit, filed in January, said Trump violates the Constitution's "emoluments" clause, which bars him from accepting gifts from foreign governments without congressional approval, by maintaining ownership over his business empire despite ceding day-to-day control to his sons.
In a filing in Manhattan federal court on Friday, the justice department argued that the plaintiffs in the case - an ethics non-profit, restaurant group and hotel events booker - do not have legal standing to sue.
The government also said payments to Trump's hotels do not qualify as a violation of the emoluments clause, which is intended to cover personal services performed by the president.
"Plaintiffs' broad-brush claims effectively assert that the Constitution disqualifies the president from serving as president while maintaining ownership interests in his commercial businesses," the department said in its court filing.
A spokesman for ethics watchdog Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, one of the plaintiffs, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The lawsuit said businesses such as hotel bookers are injured when foreign governments try to "curry favor" with Trump by favoring his own enterprises.
It said this had even occurred since Trump took office, when China granted him trademark rights after he pledged to honor the "One China" policy of his White House predecessors.
ALSO IN POLITICS
The DOJ on Friday said any payments to Trump's restaurants in New York, a city with 24,000 restaurants, have not caused enough specific harm to plaintiffs to give them the ability to sue.
U.S. District Judge Ronnie Abrams, an appointee of former Democratic President Barack Obama, oversees the litigation.


(Reporting by Dan Levine in San Francisco; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)