How a US-China trade war could hurt us all
Karishma Vaswani
Asia business correspondent
@BBCKarishma on Twitter
5 July 2018
Both sides may ramp up the rhetoric to such an extent neither can back down
What happens when the world's two biggest economies go to war?
Ok, so it's not a real war - but the US and China are at the beginning of a trade war - and no-one knows just how bad it could get.
So here's how a US-China trade war could hurt us.
Tit-for-tat
A list of Chinese products will be hit with a 25% tariff from Friday - effectively making them 25% more expensive for US consumers.
Technology goods like semiconductor chips assembled in China. They're found in consumer products used in everyday life such as televisions, personal computers, smartphones, and cars
A wide variety of products ranging from plastics, nuclear reactors and dairy-making equipment
According to the Petersen Institute of International Economics more than 90% of the products on the US tariffs list are made up of intermediate inputs or capital equipment. That means stuff that you need as raw material to make other products - so it could have a knock-on effect on many other goods too.
What the US really wants to target though are things produced under China's Made in China 2025 policy.
In retaliation to the US moves, China has hit these sectors:
American agriculture - hitting at American farmers and ranchers, a political vote bank that US President Trump relies on. Some 91% of the 545 products China is placing a tariff on are from the agriculture sector
The car sector - companies such as Tesla and Chrysler manufacture in the US and their products going into China would be affected
Medical products; coal; petroleum (but only marginally).
'Getting scary'
And while Beijing is really good at the chest-thumping, fist-wagging rhetoric, the reality on the ground is much more serious.
What is Beijing planning with its "Made in China 2025" programme?
"Our industry contacts in China have said things like 'seems pretty serious,' or 'this is getting scary', even 'I think there's a chance of things getting worse'," says Vinesh Motwani of Silk Road Research.
He's recently returned from a trip to the mainland, and as part of his research routinely talks to China-based firms to gauge business sentiment there.
These worries, he says, can translate into "increased caution and lower confidence" for businesses as they try to navigate the uncertainty ahead.
Which means: expansion plans could be put on ice. And if Chinese expansion is on hold that has a direct impact on the rest of us in Asia.
Shift manufacturing?
Obviously the US and China's economies are most at risk, although they're not the only ones.
According to DBS's chief economist Taimur Baig, an all-out trade war could shave 0.25% off the GDP of both economies this year. It gets much worse next year - with both countries seeing a reduction in growth of about 0.5% or more.
Mr Baig adds that "considering China grows at 6-7% and the US at 2-3%, we believe the damage would be greater to the US than on China".
But countries like South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan could all be affected too because of disruption to supply chains.
Why the US-China trade war will hit most of our pockets
China sources a lot of components that go into its finished goods from these other countries. As Nick Marro of the Economist Intelligence Unit points out, "any dent in China's export flows will inevitably affect" these other countries.
The case could be made for manufacturing to shift to these other countries - and for them to take advantage of selling to the US - but that shift would take time, and it's hard to see who could match China's scale.
Ultimately, the US consumer will end up paying more for these products.
China backlash
US firms operating in China could also face a "China backlash".
Elon Musk's electric car firm Tesla, for instance, has already highlighted just how important the Chinese market is to it.
But it imports all of its products to China and so would see a 25% tariff placed on its cars sold in China - on top of the 15% tax imported vehicles already face there.
This would inevitably push up prices for Tesla in China, making its vehicles less competitive than they already are, relative to others.
Sino-US tensions could also end up "delaying or preventing" Tesla's ability to release its full potential in China, according to Silk Road Research.
How bad can it get?
It's the question I ask every business person I meet, and the answer is typically always the same: nobody knows.
If history is any guide, then past trade wars have led to deep economic malaise. In particular the US Smoot-Hawley tariffs enacted in 1930 are thought to have inspired a trade war, and led to a massive decline in global trade.
As one study points out, world trade fell by 66% from 1929 to 1934, while US exports and imports to and from Europe each also fell by about two-thirds.
While no one is saying we're there yet, businesses are getting more concerned than they have been in the past, especially because of all the uncertainty.
The tit-for-tat mentality between Beijing and Washington could just end up antagonising both sides to a point where they cannot climb down from their hostile positions for fear of losing face.
"You start with protectionism and isolationism," says Victor Mills, chief executive of Singapore's International Chamber of Commerce. "And then you don't just beggar your neighbour, you beggar yourself."
What many business people are hoping of course, is that this sound and fury is just the start of another series of negotiations.
But the worry is that if it's not - it will escalate, and everybody will be the poorer. And that includes you and me.
Friday, July 6, 2018
China hits back after US imposes tariffs worth $34bn - BBC News
July 6, 2018
China hits back after US imposes tariffs worth $34bn
Why the US-China trade war will hit most of our pockets
US tariffs on $34bn (£25.7bn) of Chinese goods have come into effect, signalling the start of a trade war between the world's two largest economies.
The 25% levy came into effect at midnight Washington time.
China has retaliated by imposing a similar 25% tariff on 545 US products, also worth a total of $34bn.
Beijing accused the US of starting the "largest trade war in economic history".
"After the US activated its tariff measures against China, China's measures against the US took effect immediately," said Lu Kang, a foreign ministry spokesman.
Two companies in Shanghai told the BBC that customs authorities were delaying clearance processes for US imports on Friday.
The American tariffs are the result of President Donald Trump's bid to protect US jobs and stop "unfair transfers of American technology and intellectual property to China".
The White House said it would consult on tariffs on another $16bn of products, which Mr Trump has suggested could come into effect later this month.
The US soya farmers taking on Trump
The imposition of the tariffs had little impact on Asian stock markets. The Shanghai Composite closed 0.5% higher, but ended the week 3.5% lower - its seventh consecutive week of losses.
Tokyo closed 1.1% higher, but Hong Kong fell 0.5% in late trading.
Hikaru Sato at Daiwa Securities said markets had already factored in the impact of the first round of tariffs.
Mr Trump has already imposed tariffs on imported washing machines and solar panels, and started charging levies on the imports of steel and aluminium from the European Union, Mexico and Canada.
He has also threatened a 10% levy on an additional $200bn of Chinese goods if Beijng "refuses to change its practices".
The president upped the stakes on Thursday, saying the amount of goods subject to tariffs could rise to more than $500bn.
"You have another 16 [billion dollars] in two weeks, and then, as you know, we have $200bn in abeyance and then after the $200bn, we have $300bn in abeyance. OK? So we have 50 plus 200 plus almost 300," he said.
The US tariffs imposed so far would affect the equivalent of 0.6% of global trade and account for 0.1% of global GDP, according to Morgan Stanley in a research note issued before Mr Trump's comments on Thursday.
Analysts are also concerned about the impact on others in the supply chain and about an escalation of tensions between the US and China in general.
China hits back after US imposes tariffs worth $34bn
Why the US-China trade war will hit most of our pockets
US tariffs on $34bn (£25.7bn) of Chinese goods have come into effect, signalling the start of a trade war between the world's two largest economies.
The 25% levy came into effect at midnight Washington time.
China has retaliated by imposing a similar 25% tariff on 545 US products, also worth a total of $34bn.
Beijing accused the US of starting the "largest trade war in economic history".
"After the US activated its tariff measures against China, China's measures against the US took effect immediately," said Lu Kang, a foreign ministry spokesman.
Two companies in Shanghai told the BBC that customs authorities were delaying clearance processes for US imports on Friday.
The American tariffs are the result of President Donald Trump's bid to protect US jobs and stop "unfair transfers of American technology and intellectual property to China".
The White House said it would consult on tariffs on another $16bn of products, which Mr Trump has suggested could come into effect later this month.
The US soya farmers taking on Trump
The imposition of the tariffs had little impact on Asian stock markets. The Shanghai Composite closed 0.5% higher, but ended the week 3.5% lower - its seventh consecutive week of losses.
Tokyo closed 1.1% higher, but Hong Kong fell 0.5% in late trading.
Hikaru Sato at Daiwa Securities said markets had already factored in the impact of the first round of tariffs.
Mr Trump has already imposed tariffs on imported washing machines and solar panels, and started charging levies on the imports of steel and aluminium from the European Union, Mexico and Canada.
He has also threatened a 10% levy on an additional $200bn of Chinese goods if Beijng "refuses to change its practices".
The president upped the stakes on Thursday, saying the amount of goods subject to tariffs could rise to more than $500bn.
"You have another 16 [billion dollars] in two weeks, and then, as you know, we have $200bn in abeyance and then after the $200bn, we have $300bn in abeyance. OK? So we have 50 plus 200 plus almost 300," he said.
The US tariffs imposed so far would affect the equivalent of 0.6% of global trade and account for 0.1% of global GDP, according to Morgan Stanley in a research note issued before Mr Trump's comments on Thursday.
Analysts are also concerned about the impact on others in the supply chain and about an escalation of tensions between the US and China in general.
Thailand cave rescue: Ex-navy diver dies on oxygen supply mission - BBC News
July 6, 2018
Thailand cave rescue: Ex-navy diver dies on oxygen supply mission
Saman Gunan, pictured here in the cave, lost consciousness in a passageway
A former Thai navy diver has died while taking part in efforts to rescue 12 boys and their football coach trapped in a flooded cave in Thailand.
Petty Officer Saman Gunan lost consciousness on his way out of the Tham Luang cave complex, where he had been delivering air tanks.
The boys have been trapped for nearly two weeks in a chamber in the cave.
They ventured in while the cave was dry but were caught out by a sudden deluge of rain, which flooded the system.
The group was found by British rescue divers after 10 days in the cave, perched on a rock shelf in a small chamber about 4km (2.5 miles) from the cave mouth.
Teams of Thai and international divers have since supplied them with food, oxygen and medical attention, but there are mounting concerns about the oxygen level in the chamber, which officials said had fallen to 15%. The usual level is 21%.
Locals long to see missing Thai cave boys
What are the rescue options?
On the surface, a huge military and civilian rescue operation is racing against the clock to bring the boys to safety. Heavy monsoon rains are expected on Sunday, threatening further flooding.
Officials had initially considered leaving the boys in the chamber to wait out the rainy season - which could have seen them trapped there for up to four months.
Even for experienced divers, the cave is dangerous
But Thailand's Navy Seal commander suggested on Thursday that the divers may now have little choice but to attempt a daring emergency rescue - fraught with danger for the boys, who are aged 11 to 16 and some of whom cannot swim.
"At first, we thought the children could stay for a long time... but now things have changed, we have a limited time," Rear Admiral Apakorn Yookongkaew said.
A death in the cave
The death of Saman - a highly trained diver - on Thursday underscored the danger of moving from the chamber to mouth of the cave, and raised serious doubts about the safety of bringing the boys out through the cramped, flooded passageways.
The diver died after losing consciousness in one of the passageways, said Passakorn Boonyaluck, deputy governor of the Chiang Rai region, where the cave is situated.
"His job was to deliver oxygen. He did not have enough on his way back," Mr Passakorn said.
He said that Saman's dive partner tried to revive him but could not, and his body was brought out of the cave.
The Brits behind the Thai cave boys search
Elon Musk offers to help
Saman, who was reportedly 38, had left the navy but returned to aid in the rescue operation. Said to be an avid runner and cyclist, he was part of the massive rescue operation launched after the group became stranded in the Tham Luang cave.
Officials said his funeral would be sponsored by the Thai king.
The search operation would go on, said Rear Adm Arpakorn. "I can guarantee that we will not panic, we will not stop our mission, we will not let the sacrifice of our friend go to waste," he said.
About 1,000 people are involved in the rescue operation, including navy divers, military personnel and civilian volunteers.
A buddhist monk leads an honour guard carrying PO Saman's coffin
A lack of oxygen
Authorities say there are concerns about falling oxygen levels in the chamber where the boys and their coach are trapped.
Oxygen was being depleted by the large number of people working inside the cave network, said the Chiang Rai Governor, Narongsak Osotthanakorn.
Authorities are now working to get a 5km (3 mile) cable into the cave to supply the group with air. They are also trying to feed a fibre optic cable through to the group, to connect them to their families for the first time in nearly two weeks.
What are the rescue options?
The boys are being regularly supplied with food and medical care, but there are grave concerns over heavy rainfall forecast for Sunday.
Authorities are trying to work out how best to bring the group to safety, with officials stressing they do not intend to take any risks with the boys' safety.
The military has been pumping water out of the cave but if it cannot hold the water level down, it will be left a stark reality: teaching the boys to use diving equipment and bringing them via a route which has already cost one trained diver his life.
Some local groups are searching in the hills for unknown entrances to the cave system, but none has yet been found.
If a rescue attempt fails, leaving the boys to wait out the rain brings with it another danger: that the sinkholes and streams in the hills above could flood the chamber completely.
Diver's death a blow to morale
Rescue operation leaders here say most of those involved have been trained to work in high risk environments, and to deal with eventualities like this.
They say the death of Saman won't impact on their mission. But there is a different atmosphere today in the makeshift village that's evolved at the cave's entrance, and the death of a former navy Seal highlights just how dangerous the route out of the cave remains.
It is unlikely the boys will be told about the death. One of the prime concerns here is to keep them not just physically but mentally strong.
Today, the priority is to connect the fibre optic cable that will allow the boys to speak to their families. It is hoped it will be a vital boost for the young boys, after two long weeks underground.
Thailand cave rescue: Ex-navy diver dies on oxygen supply mission
Saman Gunan, pictured here in the cave, lost consciousness in a passageway
A former Thai navy diver has died while taking part in efforts to rescue 12 boys and their football coach trapped in a flooded cave in Thailand.
Petty Officer Saman Gunan lost consciousness on his way out of the Tham Luang cave complex, where he had been delivering air tanks.
The boys have been trapped for nearly two weeks in a chamber in the cave.
They ventured in while the cave was dry but were caught out by a sudden deluge of rain, which flooded the system.
The group was found by British rescue divers after 10 days in the cave, perched on a rock shelf in a small chamber about 4km (2.5 miles) from the cave mouth.
Teams of Thai and international divers have since supplied them with food, oxygen and medical attention, but there are mounting concerns about the oxygen level in the chamber, which officials said had fallen to 15%. The usual level is 21%.
Locals long to see missing Thai cave boys
What are the rescue options?
On the surface, a huge military and civilian rescue operation is racing against the clock to bring the boys to safety. Heavy monsoon rains are expected on Sunday, threatening further flooding.
Officials had initially considered leaving the boys in the chamber to wait out the rainy season - which could have seen them trapped there for up to four months.
Even for experienced divers, the cave is dangerous
But Thailand's Navy Seal commander suggested on Thursday that the divers may now have little choice but to attempt a daring emergency rescue - fraught with danger for the boys, who are aged 11 to 16 and some of whom cannot swim.
"At first, we thought the children could stay for a long time... but now things have changed, we have a limited time," Rear Admiral Apakorn Yookongkaew said.
A death in the cave
The death of Saman - a highly trained diver - on Thursday underscored the danger of moving from the chamber to mouth of the cave, and raised serious doubts about the safety of bringing the boys out through the cramped, flooded passageways.
The diver died after losing consciousness in one of the passageways, said Passakorn Boonyaluck, deputy governor of the Chiang Rai region, where the cave is situated.
"His job was to deliver oxygen. He did not have enough on his way back," Mr Passakorn said.
He said that Saman's dive partner tried to revive him but could not, and his body was brought out of the cave.
The Brits behind the Thai cave boys search
Elon Musk offers to help
Saman, who was reportedly 38, had left the navy but returned to aid in the rescue operation. Said to be an avid runner and cyclist, he was part of the massive rescue operation launched after the group became stranded in the Tham Luang cave.
Officials said his funeral would be sponsored by the Thai king.
The search operation would go on, said Rear Adm Arpakorn. "I can guarantee that we will not panic, we will not stop our mission, we will not let the sacrifice of our friend go to waste," he said.
About 1,000 people are involved in the rescue operation, including navy divers, military personnel and civilian volunteers.
A buddhist monk leads an honour guard carrying PO Saman's coffin
A lack of oxygen
Authorities say there are concerns about falling oxygen levels in the chamber where the boys and their coach are trapped.
Oxygen was being depleted by the large number of people working inside the cave network, said the Chiang Rai Governor, Narongsak Osotthanakorn.
Authorities are now working to get a 5km (3 mile) cable into the cave to supply the group with air. They are also trying to feed a fibre optic cable through to the group, to connect them to their families for the first time in nearly two weeks.
What are the rescue options?
The boys are being regularly supplied with food and medical care, but there are grave concerns over heavy rainfall forecast for Sunday.
Authorities are trying to work out how best to bring the group to safety, with officials stressing they do not intend to take any risks with the boys' safety.
The military has been pumping water out of the cave but if it cannot hold the water level down, it will be left a stark reality: teaching the boys to use diving equipment and bringing them via a route which has already cost one trained diver his life.
Some local groups are searching in the hills for unknown entrances to the cave system, but none has yet been found.
If a rescue attempt fails, leaving the boys to wait out the rain brings with it another danger: that the sinkholes and streams in the hills above could flood the chamber completely.
Diver's death a blow to morale
Rescue operation leaders here say most of those involved have been trained to work in high risk environments, and to deal with eventualities like this.
They say the death of Saman won't impact on their mission. But there is a different atmosphere today in the makeshift village that's evolved at the cave's entrance, and the death of a former navy Seal highlights just how dangerous the route out of the cave remains.
It is unlikely the boys will be told about the death. One of the prime concerns here is to keep them not just physically but mentally strong.
Today, the priority is to connect the fibre optic cable that will allow the boys to speak to their families. It is hoped it will be a vital boost for the young boys, after two long weeks underground.
Thursday, July 5, 2018
How Trump Went From ‘Fire and Fury’ to Dismissing North Korean Nuclear Advances - New York Times
How Trump Went From ‘Fire and Fury’ to Dismissing North Korean Nuclear Advances
By David E. Sanger
July 4, 2018
WASHINGTON — When the North Koreans were shooting off missile tests and detonating new, more powerful atomic bombs last year, President Trump responded with threats of “fire and fury” and ordered the military to come up with new, if highly risky, pre-emptive strike options.
But since the one-day summit meeting last month in Singapore, Mr. Trump has done an about-face, while the North’s nuclear program has continued. “Many good conversations with North Korea-it is going well!” he wrote Tuesday morning on Twitter.
Even the recent revelations of seemingly modest North Korean progress on missile technology and the production of nuclear fuel — including continued work on a new nuclear reactor that can produce plutonium — have not dimmed Mr. Trump’s enthusiasm. He argues that they mean little compared to the new tone of conversations, and that even though North Korea has not disassembled a single weapon, his mission should be judged a success.
It is that jarring reversal of tone that has led Mr. Trump’s critics to argue that he was taken in by Kim Jong-un, the North’s 34-year-old leader.
Turning the enthusiasm of the meeting in Singapore into a concrete, verifiable agreement is now the job of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who is leaving Washington early Thursday for North Korea. It will be his third trip there, but the first to flesh out a timetable and a common understanding of what the Singapore commitment to “work toward denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” really means.
Complicating the task is this: Mr. Pompeo, a former C.I.A. chief who knows the details of the North Korean program intimately and has solicited plans for how to accomplish his goals, must show that he can get the North Koreans to go far beyond the agreement his predecessor once-removed, John Kerry, achieved in negotiations with Iran. Mr. Trump has called that deal a “disaster” for years and pulled out of it two months ago.
Now, it looms over Mr. Pompeo’s talks.
By engaging Mr. Trump in the process of “denuclearizing” the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kim may be calculating that the president would not dare walk away — especially after Mr. Trump noted before the summit meeting that “everyone thinks” he should win a Nobel Peace Prize, before modestly adding, “but I would never say it.”
Still, the test missile engine site that Mr. Trump told reporters was being dismantled still stands, satellite pictures show. And the C.I.A., among other agencies, has warned that the North’s strategy may now be to build up abilities that can be traded away later, hoping to maneuver Mr. Trump into accepting the country as a de facto nuclear power, and settle for concessions on the size and reach of Mr. Kim’s nuclear force.
Mr. Trump and his allies say that is nonsense; sanctions remain and Mr. Trump has not flinched from the goal of “complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization.”
“There’s not any starry-eyed feeling among the group doing this,” John R. Bolton, the national security adviser, insisted Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” saying that most of the major steps toward denuclearization could be taken in a year. In private, Trump administration officials say, Mr. Bolton’s view is the same as it was before he joined the administration: that the North Koreans will never entirely give up their program.
The big question is whether Mr. Kim is truly ready to change course or playing for time with Mr. Trump — as his father and grandfather did with the past four presidents.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump is in sales mode.
Frustrated by the series of reports that the North is chugging forward, despite its “denuclearization” pledge, Mr. Trump boasted in a tweet on Tuesday that there had been “no Rocket Launches or Nuclear Testing in 8 months. All of Asia is thrilled. Only the Opposition Party, which includes the Fake News, is complaining.”
Then, with a Trumpian flair, he added, “If not for me, we would now be at War with North Korea!”
Mr. Trump is at least partly right: There have been no missile or nuclear tests since November, a freeze that many, including some Democrats, said was a necessary first step. But a freeze and denuclearization are completely different things.
Mr. Kim retains all of his nuclear abilities, and thus his leverage. He can resume testing any time. Just a year ago, Rex W. Tillerson, then the secretary of state, called that position insufficient because it merely perpetuated an ability to strike that Mr. Trump had, until recently, characterized as intolerable.
But it also reveals, in perhaps the most critical national security crisis Mr. Trump faces, his tendency to conflate a good meeting with a good outcome. It is as if President John F. Kennedy, meeting with the Soviet Union’s Nikita Khrushchev for the first time in Vienna in 1961, had declared the Cold War solved. The Cuban missile crisis broke open 16 months later.
Mr. Kim has already accomplished something, too. The heat has been turned down drastically, and the United States has, unilaterally, suspended military exercises with South Korea.
The Obama administration’s Iran agreement shadows Mr. Trump’s talks with the North.
The president regularly calls Iran a major nuclear threat, even though it no longer has enough fuel to make a single nuclear weapon. Under the 2015 agreement, it shipped 97 percent of its nuclear material out of the country. And it never possessed nuclear weapons.
Yet Mr. Trump pulled out after concluding that the United States gave away too much in return for an agreement that would gradually allow the Iranians to resume production around 2030.
The stark contrast between how Mr. Trump talks about Tehran, while insisting that the North is “no longer a nuclear threat,” will become harder and harder to sustain if Mr. Pompeo cannot get Mr. Kim on a rapid denuclearization schedule.
And Mr. Pompeo will need to achieve an inspection regime that provides assurance — not only to intelligence agencies but also to the public in South Korea, Japan and the United States — that the North is not hiding weapons, missiles or production facilities. The C.I.A. and the Defense Intelligence Agency believe that, today, it is hiding all three. So far, Mr. Pompeo has said nothing about the details he intends to present, and Mr. Bolton suggested that stories about new intelligence on the North’s improving its nuclear abilities only imperiled the diplomatic process. As a television commentator and columnist, Mr. Bolton often repeated similar reports when it came to building his case about how to deal with Pyongyang and Tehran.
One thing is clear, however: The Trump administration has not uttered the phrase “complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization” in weeks, and Mr. Pompeo has also softened his tone. Some administration officials say that South Korea urged getting rid of the everything-must-be-dismantled-immediately approach. And South Korean officials say that while Mr. Kim might not surrender his entire program anytime soon, he might dismantle parts of it, reducing his readiness to go to war.
“Perhaps the biggest diplomatic problem the U.S. will face, if we can get North Korea to agree to fully denuclearize, will be the timing of that denuclearization and how we verify the component steps,” William Perry, the former defense secretary under President Bill Clinton, wrote this week in Politico Magazine.
Mr. Perry, who negotiated repeatedly with the North, cautioned that “these steps will be complex, will take many months, if not years, and will require intrusive verification procedures.”
“But the U.S. has negotiated agreements equally difficult with the Soviet Union, so we do have a positive precedent,” he wrote.
By David E. Sanger
July 4, 2018
WASHINGTON — When the North Koreans were shooting off missile tests and detonating new, more powerful atomic bombs last year, President Trump responded with threats of “fire and fury” and ordered the military to come up with new, if highly risky, pre-emptive strike options.
But since the one-day summit meeting last month in Singapore, Mr. Trump has done an about-face, while the North’s nuclear program has continued. “Many good conversations with North Korea-it is going well!” he wrote Tuesday morning on Twitter.
Even the recent revelations of seemingly modest North Korean progress on missile technology and the production of nuclear fuel — including continued work on a new nuclear reactor that can produce plutonium — have not dimmed Mr. Trump’s enthusiasm. He argues that they mean little compared to the new tone of conversations, and that even though North Korea has not disassembled a single weapon, his mission should be judged a success.
It is that jarring reversal of tone that has led Mr. Trump’s critics to argue that he was taken in by Kim Jong-un, the North’s 34-year-old leader.
Turning the enthusiasm of the meeting in Singapore into a concrete, verifiable agreement is now the job of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who is leaving Washington early Thursday for North Korea. It will be his third trip there, but the first to flesh out a timetable and a common understanding of what the Singapore commitment to “work toward denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” really means.
Complicating the task is this: Mr. Pompeo, a former C.I.A. chief who knows the details of the North Korean program intimately and has solicited plans for how to accomplish his goals, must show that he can get the North Koreans to go far beyond the agreement his predecessor once-removed, John Kerry, achieved in negotiations with Iran. Mr. Trump has called that deal a “disaster” for years and pulled out of it two months ago.
Now, it looms over Mr. Pompeo’s talks.
By engaging Mr. Trump in the process of “denuclearizing” the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kim may be calculating that the president would not dare walk away — especially after Mr. Trump noted before the summit meeting that “everyone thinks” he should win a Nobel Peace Prize, before modestly adding, “but I would never say it.”
Still, the test missile engine site that Mr. Trump told reporters was being dismantled still stands, satellite pictures show. And the C.I.A., among other agencies, has warned that the North’s strategy may now be to build up abilities that can be traded away later, hoping to maneuver Mr. Trump into accepting the country as a de facto nuclear power, and settle for concessions on the size and reach of Mr. Kim’s nuclear force.
Mr. Trump and his allies say that is nonsense; sanctions remain and Mr. Trump has not flinched from the goal of “complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization.”
“There’s not any starry-eyed feeling among the group doing this,” John R. Bolton, the national security adviser, insisted Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” saying that most of the major steps toward denuclearization could be taken in a year. In private, Trump administration officials say, Mr. Bolton’s view is the same as it was before he joined the administration: that the North Koreans will never entirely give up their program.
The big question is whether Mr. Kim is truly ready to change course or playing for time with Mr. Trump — as his father and grandfather did with the past four presidents.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump is in sales mode.
Frustrated by the series of reports that the North is chugging forward, despite its “denuclearization” pledge, Mr. Trump boasted in a tweet on Tuesday that there had been “no Rocket Launches or Nuclear Testing in 8 months. All of Asia is thrilled. Only the Opposition Party, which includes the Fake News, is complaining.”
Then, with a Trumpian flair, he added, “If not for me, we would now be at War with North Korea!”
Mr. Trump is at least partly right: There have been no missile or nuclear tests since November, a freeze that many, including some Democrats, said was a necessary first step. But a freeze and denuclearization are completely different things.
Mr. Kim retains all of his nuclear abilities, and thus his leverage. He can resume testing any time. Just a year ago, Rex W. Tillerson, then the secretary of state, called that position insufficient because it merely perpetuated an ability to strike that Mr. Trump had, until recently, characterized as intolerable.
But it also reveals, in perhaps the most critical national security crisis Mr. Trump faces, his tendency to conflate a good meeting with a good outcome. It is as if President John F. Kennedy, meeting with the Soviet Union’s Nikita Khrushchev for the first time in Vienna in 1961, had declared the Cold War solved. The Cuban missile crisis broke open 16 months later.
Mr. Kim has already accomplished something, too. The heat has been turned down drastically, and the United States has, unilaterally, suspended military exercises with South Korea.
The Obama administration’s Iran agreement shadows Mr. Trump’s talks with the North.
The president regularly calls Iran a major nuclear threat, even though it no longer has enough fuel to make a single nuclear weapon. Under the 2015 agreement, it shipped 97 percent of its nuclear material out of the country. And it never possessed nuclear weapons.
Yet Mr. Trump pulled out after concluding that the United States gave away too much in return for an agreement that would gradually allow the Iranians to resume production around 2030.
The stark contrast between how Mr. Trump talks about Tehran, while insisting that the North is “no longer a nuclear threat,” will become harder and harder to sustain if Mr. Pompeo cannot get Mr. Kim on a rapid denuclearization schedule.
And Mr. Pompeo will need to achieve an inspection regime that provides assurance — not only to intelligence agencies but also to the public in South Korea, Japan and the United States — that the North is not hiding weapons, missiles or production facilities. The C.I.A. and the Defense Intelligence Agency believe that, today, it is hiding all three. So far, Mr. Pompeo has said nothing about the details he intends to present, and Mr. Bolton suggested that stories about new intelligence on the North’s improving its nuclear abilities only imperiled the diplomatic process. As a television commentator and columnist, Mr. Bolton often repeated similar reports when it came to building his case about how to deal with Pyongyang and Tehran.
One thing is clear, however: The Trump administration has not uttered the phrase “complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization” in weeks, and Mr. Pompeo has also softened his tone. Some administration officials say that South Korea urged getting rid of the everything-must-be-dismantled-immediately approach. And South Korean officials say that while Mr. Kim might not surrender his entire program anytime soon, he might dismantle parts of it, reducing his readiness to go to war.
“Perhaps the biggest diplomatic problem the U.S. will face, if we can get North Korea to agree to fully denuclearize, will be the timing of that denuclearization and how we verify the component steps,” William Perry, the former defense secretary under President Bill Clinton, wrote this week in Politico Magazine.
Mr. Perry, who negotiated repeatedly with the North, cautioned that “these steps will be complex, will take many months, if not years, and will require intrusive verification procedures.”
“But the U.S. has negotiated agreements equally difficult with the Soviet Union, so we do have a positive precedent,” he wrote.
Donald Trump: OPEC is "doing little to help" with gas prices - CBS News
July 5, 2018, 8:09 AM
Donald Trump: OPEC is "doing little to help" with gas prices
President Donald Trump says OPEC is "doing little to help" rising gas prices and claims "if anything, they are driving prices higher."
Mr. Trump tweeted Wednesday: "The OPEC Monopoly must remember that gas prices are up & they are doing little to help. If anything, they are driving prices higher as the United States defends many of their members for very little $'s. This must be a two way street. REDUCE PRICING NOW!"
Last month, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel agreed to pump 1 million barrels more crude oil daily, a move that should help contain the recent rise in global energy prices. However, summer months in the U.S. usually lead to increased demand for oil, boosting the price of gasoline in a midterm election year.
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
The OPEC Monopoly must remember that gas prices are up & they are doing little to help. If anything, they are driving prices higher as the United States defends many of their members for very little $’s. This must be a two way street. REDUCE PRICING NOW!
6:46 AM - Jul 5, 2018
An Iranian oil official said the U.S. president should stop tweeting about oil because Mr. Trump is making the situation worse, according to Bloomberg News.
"Your tweets have driven the prices up by at least $10 per barrel," Iran's OPEC governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili said the message, Bloomberg reported, citing the Iranian Oil Ministry's Shana news service. "Pls stop it, otherwise it will go even higher!"
Donald Trump: OPEC is "doing little to help" with gas prices
President Donald Trump says OPEC is "doing little to help" rising gas prices and claims "if anything, they are driving prices higher."
Mr. Trump tweeted Wednesday: "The OPEC Monopoly must remember that gas prices are up & they are doing little to help. If anything, they are driving prices higher as the United States defends many of their members for very little $'s. This must be a two way street. REDUCE PRICING NOW!"
Last month, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel agreed to pump 1 million barrels more crude oil daily, a move that should help contain the recent rise in global energy prices. However, summer months in the U.S. usually lead to increased demand for oil, boosting the price of gasoline in a midterm election year.
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
The OPEC Monopoly must remember that gas prices are up & they are doing little to help. If anything, they are driving prices higher as the United States defends many of their members for very little $’s. This must be a two way street. REDUCE PRICING NOW!
6:46 AM - Jul 5, 2018
An Iranian oil official said the U.S. president should stop tweeting about oil because Mr. Trump is making the situation worse, according to Bloomberg News.
"Your tweets have driven the prices up by at least $10 per barrel," Iran's OPEC governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili said the message, Bloomberg reported, citing the Iranian Oil Ministry's Shana news service. "Pls stop it, otherwise it will go even higher!"
Glencore's Buyback Bravado The not-so-subtle message from a $1 billion share repurchase - Blommberg
Glencore's Buyback Bravado
The not-so-subtle message from a $1 billion share repurchase.
By
July 5, 2018, 8:07 PM GMT+10
If you’re in a hole, keep digging. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg
Glencore Plc’s announcement of a $1 billion stock buyback on Thursday was short on both wit and color. So allow me to hazard a rough translation: “Don't worry, we're rich and our share price should be much higher.”
Faced with the unwelcome attention of the U.S. Department of Justice, most companies would be inclined to batten down the hatches. But, just a couple of days after being ordered to hand over a decades's worth of documents related to its activities in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Venezuela and Nigeria, the world’s top commodities trader is splashing its cash.
Digging Down
Glencore's stock price was dented by the DoJ's subpoena
Glencore does bravado well – too well, perhaps, for its own good.
Two recent examples are pertinent: not long after the Baar, Switzerland-based company had overcome a nasty tussle with short-sellers, CEO Ivan Glasenberg quipped last year that the balance sheet was now in such good shape that his firm could afford to pay a $20 billion dividend. And earlier this year, Glencore announced it would restart royalty payments to its former Congo business partner Dan Gertler – even though he had recently been made subject to blocking sanctions by the U.S. The company’s solution was to pay Gertler in euros, a possibly unwise move even if Glencore says it had discussed the matter with U.S. authorities.
Compared to the now famous $20 billion boast, today’s buyback and the $2.9 billion of dividends Glencore is promising shareholders this year look pretty modest. But, they send a signal that Glasenberg, who own 8 percent of the stock, thinks the recent sell-off is overdone and the company's balance sheet is more than capable of withstanding a bit of legal trouble.
Indeed, if you leave aside the legal woes, it would be hard to make the case that Glencore's shares are overvalued. Providing commodity prices don't collapse, analysts expect the company to generate about $54 billion of Ebitda in the next three years. With net debt down to about $10.7 billion, and its capital expenditure requirements fairly limited, that should leave plenty of spare cash to return to shareholders. Yet the stock only trades on about eight times estimated earnings, a steep discount to peers BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Plc.
That gap exists because Glencore is seen as a more risky proposition: it's also facing a possible corruption probe in the U.K. and its troubles in the Congo are too copious to list here.
Perhaps Glencore decided to proceed with the buyback to show it has nothing to fear from the Justice Department. But external investors, who aren't privy to the same information, will struggle to share that confidence. The DoJ struck back at Glencore less than a month after the miner’s apparent attempt to circumvent U.S. sanctions. It's hard not to conclude the company misjudged the situation. In business, as in life, pride can often come before a fall.
The not-so-subtle message from a $1 billion share repurchase.
By
July 5, 2018, 8:07 PM GMT+10
If you’re in a hole, keep digging. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg
Glencore Plc’s announcement of a $1 billion stock buyback on Thursday was short on both wit and color. So allow me to hazard a rough translation: “Don't worry, we're rich and our share price should be much higher.”
Faced with the unwelcome attention of the U.S. Department of Justice, most companies would be inclined to batten down the hatches. But, just a couple of days after being ordered to hand over a decades's worth of documents related to its activities in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Venezuela and Nigeria, the world’s top commodities trader is splashing its cash.
Digging Down
Glencore's stock price was dented by the DoJ's subpoena
Glencore does bravado well – too well, perhaps, for its own good.
Two recent examples are pertinent: not long after the Baar, Switzerland-based company had overcome a nasty tussle with short-sellers, CEO Ivan Glasenberg quipped last year that the balance sheet was now in such good shape that his firm could afford to pay a $20 billion dividend. And earlier this year, Glencore announced it would restart royalty payments to its former Congo business partner Dan Gertler – even though he had recently been made subject to blocking sanctions by the U.S. The company’s solution was to pay Gertler in euros, a possibly unwise move even if Glencore says it had discussed the matter with U.S. authorities.
Compared to the now famous $20 billion boast, today’s buyback and the $2.9 billion of dividends Glencore is promising shareholders this year look pretty modest. But, they send a signal that Glasenberg, who own 8 percent of the stock, thinks the recent sell-off is overdone and the company's balance sheet is more than capable of withstanding a bit of legal trouble.
Indeed, if you leave aside the legal woes, it would be hard to make the case that Glencore's shares are overvalued. Providing commodity prices don't collapse, analysts expect the company to generate about $54 billion of Ebitda in the next three years. With net debt down to about $10.7 billion, and its capital expenditure requirements fairly limited, that should leave plenty of spare cash to return to shareholders. Yet the stock only trades on about eight times estimated earnings, a steep discount to peers BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Plc.
That gap exists because Glencore is seen as a more risky proposition: it's also facing a possible corruption probe in the U.K. and its troubles in the Congo are too copious to list here.
Perhaps Glencore decided to proceed with the buyback to show it has nothing to fear from the Justice Department. But external investors, who aren't privy to the same information, will struggle to share that confidence. The DoJ struck back at Glencore less than a month after the miner’s apparent attempt to circumvent U.S. sanctions. It's hard not to conclude the company misjudged the situation. In business, as in life, pride can often come before a fall.
Migration Deal Rescued Merkel’s Government. Now, She Has to Save the Deal. - New York Times
Migration Deal Rescued Merkel’s Government. Now, She Has to Save the Deal.
By Melissa Eddy
July 4, 2018
BERLIN — Two days after pulling her government back from the brink by agreeing to set up transit camps for migrants at the border — and to eventually turn some of them away — Chancellor Angela Merkel is working to keep the deal from falling apart.
She and her interior minister have critical meetings Thursday with the leaders of Austria and Hungary, who must agree to take back some of the migrants in order to make the deal Ms. Merkel struck with the rebellious Bavarian partners in her own government.
Those leaders already criticized Ms. Merkel for her welcoming stance in 2015, when hundreds of thousands of people fleeing conflicts in Afghanistan, Syria and elsewhere flooded into Europe. So it is unclear if Austria and Hungary will go along with taking in migrants that Germany turns away.
Those decisions will be important in keeping her three-party coalition intact. Although the conservatives in her coalition have signed onto the deal, the other partner, the center-left Social Democratic Party, has expressed reservations about setting up “transit camps,” especially if other countries won’t take the migrants back and they are left in limbo.
The stakes of Thursday’s negotiations are high, not only for Ms. Merkel — who sought in a television interview to reassure Germans that her government had returned to stability — but for Europe itself. She has fought for democratic principles and the ideal of open borders in the face of a sharp swing to the right among many of the European Union’s 28 member states.
“Europe needs Germany to have a stable government — now more than ever,” said Marcel Dirsus, a political scientist at the University of Kiel. “Ms. Merkel is not perfect, but she is measured, calm and rational. Germany and Europe would be worse off without her.”
Under European Union rules, migrants are supposed to apply for asylum in the first member country in which they arrive, rather than pressing on to other nations like Germany. But Ms. Merkel’s government stopped enforcing those rules when other European countries balked at handling the migrants in their countries.
Ms. Merkel agreed on Monday to set up the transit centers after a two-week standoff with her interior minister, Horst Seehofer, who is head of the Christian Social Union, the conservative party in Bavaria that is the third party in her governing coalition.
The centers would be set up at certain crossing points along Germany’s border with Austria, where migrants arriving from the south would be screened to determine whether they had already applied for asylum in another country in the European Union.
If so, they would be returned to that country. If that country declined to take them back, the deal states that “on the basis of an agreement with Austria,” they would be sent back there.
But Austrian leaders and members of the Social Democrats say that such an agreement does not exist.
Mr. Seehofer is heading to Vienna on Thursday to discuss the transit center deal with the Austrian chancellor, Sebastian Kurz.
In Berlin, Ms. Merkel is to hold talks with Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, whose country was the first point of entry into the European Union for many of the migrants who later made their way to Germany, and whom Berlin would like to now send back.
Mr. Seehofer’s party has cultivated close ties with the Hungarian leader, even as Ms. Merkel has been critical of Mr. Orban’s rejection of taking in migrants.
In addition to demanding more clarity on the details of the deal, the Social Democrats are insisting that any camps not become “massive” internment camps, where people would be held indefinitely. Despite those concerns, the party appeared likely to remain in the coalition, analysts said, because it stands to lose support if the government falls and new elections are held.
In what appeared to be an effort to assuage concerns among her coalition partners, Ms. Merkel said in an interview with the German public broadcaster ARD that authorities would have to decide on the fate of those passing through the centers within 48 hours.
The number of people seeking asylum in Germany has dropped significantly after peaking at more than a million in 2015. But a string of attacks on young women by migrants, a terrorist attack by a migrant on a Christmas market, and fears that the country’s social welfare system is being abused have caused many Germans to turn against the openness, led by Ms. Merkel, shown by Germany three years ago.
The German federal police said that in the first five months of this year, their officers stopped 4,600 people they classified as “unauthorized arrivals” — those who would now be sent to the centers. They say they turned back more than half of those people, but did not explain what happened to the others.
Ms. Merkel has been edging to the right on migrant issues over the past year as her center-right party has bled supporters to the nationalist, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party. That same party now threatens Mr. Seehofer’s grip on power in Bavaria before a state election in October.
But the deal Ms. Merkel struck Monday makes clear that she has shifted further from the values she has long espoused on Germany’s — and Europe’s — being strong enough to take in those in need.
Despite the bitterness of the dispute over migrants, the chancellor insisted that her fractious coalition, and she herself, would survive for a full, four-year term.
“I can’t promise that there won’t be disputes again about other issues, as this is usual when a government includes three parties,” the chancellor said in the television interview.
“This time it was a ferocious dispute about a very emotional topic,” she said. “But I firmly expect, and I’ll do my part to ensure, that our government does good work, not only now but in the coming years.”
By Melissa Eddy
July 4, 2018
BERLIN — Two days after pulling her government back from the brink by agreeing to set up transit camps for migrants at the border — and to eventually turn some of them away — Chancellor Angela Merkel is working to keep the deal from falling apart.
She and her interior minister have critical meetings Thursday with the leaders of Austria and Hungary, who must agree to take back some of the migrants in order to make the deal Ms. Merkel struck with the rebellious Bavarian partners in her own government.
Those leaders already criticized Ms. Merkel for her welcoming stance in 2015, when hundreds of thousands of people fleeing conflicts in Afghanistan, Syria and elsewhere flooded into Europe. So it is unclear if Austria and Hungary will go along with taking in migrants that Germany turns away.
Those decisions will be important in keeping her three-party coalition intact. Although the conservatives in her coalition have signed onto the deal, the other partner, the center-left Social Democratic Party, has expressed reservations about setting up “transit camps,” especially if other countries won’t take the migrants back and they are left in limbo.
The stakes of Thursday’s negotiations are high, not only for Ms. Merkel — who sought in a television interview to reassure Germans that her government had returned to stability — but for Europe itself. She has fought for democratic principles and the ideal of open borders in the face of a sharp swing to the right among many of the European Union’s 28 member states.
“Europe needs Germany to have a stable government — now more than ever,” said Marcel Dirsus, a political scientist at the University of Kiel. “Ms. Merkel is not perfect, but she is measured, calm and rational. Germany and Europe would be worse off without her.”
Under European Union rules, migrants are supposed to apply for asylum in the first member country in which they arrive, rather than pressing on to other nations like Germany. But Ms. Merkel’s government stopped enforcing those rules when other European countries balked at handling the migrants in their countries.
Ms. Merkel agreed on Monday to set up the transit centers after a two-week standoff with her interior minister, Horst Seehofer, who is head of the Christian Social Union, the conservative party in Bavaria that is the third party in her governing coalition.
The centers would be set up at certain crossing points along Germany’s border with Austria, where migrants arriving from the south would be screened to determine whether they had already applied for asylum in another country in the European Union.
If so, they would be returned to that country. If that country declined to take them back, the deal states that “on the basis of an agreement with Austria,” they would be sent back there.
But Austrian leaders and members of the Social Democrats say that such an agreement does not exist.
Mr. Seehofer is heading to Vienna on Thursday to discuss the transit center deal with the Austrian chancellor, Sebastian Kurz.
In Berlin, Ms. Merkel is to hold talks with Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, whose country was the first point of entry into the European Union for many of the migrants who later made their way to Germany, and whom Berlin would like to now send back.
Mr. Seehofer’s party has cultivated close ties with the Hungarian leader, even as Ms. Merkel has been critical of Mr. Orban’s rejection of taking in migrants.
In addition to demanding more clarity on the details of the deal, the Social Democrats are insisting that any camps not become “massive” internment camps, where people would be held indefinitely. Despite those concerns, the party appeared likely to remain in the coalition, analysts said, because it stands to lose support if the government falls and new elections are held.
In what appeared to be an effort to assuage concerns among her coalition partners, Ms. Merkel said in an interview with the German public broadcaster ARD that authorities would have to decide on the fate of those passing through the centers within 48 hours.
The number of people seeking asylum in Germany has dropped significantly after peaking at more than a million in 2015. But a string of attacks on young women by migrants, a terrorist attack by a migrant on a Christmas market, and fears that the country’s social welfare system is being abused have caused many Germans to turn against the openness, led by Ms. Merkel, shown by Germany three years ago.
The German federal police said that in the first five months of this year, their officers stopped 4,600 people they classified as “unauthorized arrivals” — those who would now be sent to the centers. They say they turned back more than half of those people, but did not explain what happened to the others.
Ms. Merkel has been edging to the right on migrant issues over the past year as her center-right party has bled supporters to the nationalist, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party. That same party now threatens Mr. Seehofer’s grip on power in Bavaria before a state election in October.
But the deal Ms. Merkel struck Monday makes clear that she has shifted further from the values she has long espoused on Germany’s — and Europe’s — being strong enough to take in those in need.
Despite the bitterness of the dispute over migrants, the chancellor insisted that her fractious coalition, and she herself, would survive for a full, four-year term.
“I can’t promise that there won’t be disputes again about other issues, as this is usual when a government includes three parties,” the chancellor said in the television interview.
“This time it was a ferocious dispute about a very emotional topic,” she said. “But I firmly expect, and I’ll do my part to ensure, that our government does good work, not only now but in the coming years.”
Russia 'must explain nerve agent poisoning' - BBC News
July, 5, 2018
Russia 'must explain nerve agent poisoning'
Home Secretary Sajid Javid has called on Russia to explain the Novichok poisoning after two people were exposed to it in Wiltshire.
The couple, believed to be Charlie Rowley, 45, and Dawn Sturgess, 44, fell ill at a house in Amesbury on Saturday and remain in a critical condition.
Mr Javid said the nerve agent used in the latest poisoning was the same type as that which ex-Russian spy Sergei Skripal was exposed to in March.
He said 100 counter-terrorism officers were working with Wiltshire Police.
"It is completely unacceptable for our people to be either deliberate or accidental targets, or for our streets, our parks, our towns, to be dumping grounds for poison," he told MPs.
"It is now time that the Russian state comes forward and explains exactly what has gone on."
Russia 'must explain nerve agent poisoning'
Home Secretary Sajid Javid has called on Russia to explain the Novichok poisoning after two people were exposed to it in Wiltshire.
The couple, believed to be Charlie Rowley, 45, and Dawn Sturgess, 44, fell ill at a house in Amesbury on Saturday and remain in a critical condition.
Mr Javid said the nerve agent used in the latest poisoning was the same type as that which ex-Russian spy Sergei Skripal was exposed to in March.
He said 100 counter-terrorism officers were working with Wiltshire Police.
"It is completely unacceptable for our people to be either deliberate or accidental targets, or for our streets, our parks, our towns, to be dumping grounds for poison," he told MPs.
"It is now time that the Russian state comes forward and explains exactly what has gone on."
Thailand cave: Rescuers in race against weather as rains close in - BBC News
July 5, 2018
Thailand cave: Rescuers in race against weather as rains close in
Rescue workers are concerned about what might happen when monsoon rains hit
Rescuers are racing against the rains to free 12 boys and their football coach, who are trapped in a flooded cave in northern Thailand.
A deluge is expected to hit in a matter of days that could force the water level up, threatening to flood the pocket where the group took refuge.
The teenage boys and their 25-year-old coach have been trapped for 12 days.
They were found on Monday night by rescue divers, on a rock shelf about 4km (2.5 miles) from the cave mouth.
The boys have now received food, foil blankets, and medical attention, and rescuers are trying to run cables through the cave tunnel so they can speak to their families.
When are the rains coming?
The region of Chiang Rai where the boys are trapped has for the past few days experienced a dry spell, and rescuers have taken advantage of this to pump water out of the cave complex.
About 128 million litres of water had been pumped out by Thursday, with the water levels coming down at an average rate of 1.5cm per hour. Rescue workers are now able to walk through a 1.5km (0.9 mile) stretch from the entrance to what's being called the third chamber.
Image copyrightREUTERS
Image caption
Water is being pumped out of the cave complex around the clock
But heavy monsoon rains are forecast for Sunday. Chiang Rai Governor Narongsak Osotthanakorn said they were "racing against water".
"We are calculating how much time we have it if rains, how many hours and days," he said.
The Tham Luang cave complex is regularly flooded during the rainy season until September or October, raising fears that a delay could leave the boys trapped in the cave for months.
What is being done to rescue the boys?
There is hope that enough water can be pumped out of the cave tunnels for the boys to be able to wade - or be floated - out.
But rescuers are also planning for other eventualities.
A team are exploring the forested mountain land above the cave complex to see if they can find a chimney down to the cavern sheltering the boys. They have enlisted the help of bird-watchers, who are specialists in finding hidden holes, the AFP news agency reports.
Media captionBill Whitehouse from the British Cave Rescue Council explains how the boys and their coach might be rescued
Thai Navy Seal divers are also teaching the boys the basics of diving, with a view to guiding them out through flooded waters if necessary.
But such a rescue would be fraught with risk, say experts. Many of the boys cannot swim or dive, and there is a high risk they might panic in the dark, murky, narrow waterways.
The journey for the group to travel up to the cave entrance would take around five hours, rescue divers say.
The Thai military has previously said that if the boys can't dive out, the group may have to wait for up to four months for flooding to recede before they can leave.
Food and other supplies are being put in place for that eventuality.
What are the rescue options?
'The boys are my brothers'
Helier Cheung, BBC News, Tham Luang cave
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image caption
Teams of volunteers are each playing their part in the rescue effort
Rescue teams are working in extremely difficult conditions. The heat has been sweltering and unrelenting, at over 30C, while much of the site is submerged in squelchy mud that is several inches thick in places and extremely slippery.
But the work has continued at an unrelenting pace. Everyone is aware that once the monsoon rains start, rescue efforts will be much more difficult.
Meanwhile, hundreds of workers are helping to keep the site in order, with road engineers laying gravel to try and secure the mud, workers for the Thai royal kitchen providing hot food for everyone, and volunteers handing out water bottles and ice lollies to those on site.
One local civil servant, who had volunteered to help hand out supplies, said he did not know the boys personally but had decided to help because "I consider the boys in the caves as my brothers".
Community of hope springs up outside cave
How are the boys coping?
Video from Thai Navy special forces on Monday showed the boys looking emaciated but smiling and at times laughing.
The arrival of food, foil blankets and the prospect of speaking to their loved ones will have buoyed their spirits.
But concern is mounting for both their physical and mental health after 12 days below ground - and it is not clear how they would be helped to survive months more in the cave.
Media captionChilean miner sends message to Thai boys
Video shows Thai cave boys in good health
The Brits behind the Thai cave boys search
How will the boys cope underground?
The boys and their coach had gone on their bikes up to the caves on Saturday 23 June after football practice. It was one boy's 16th birthday, and the team had taken a picnic.
They knew the caves, and some reports suggest they had wanted to explore deeper than on previous occasions.
They entered the cave when it was dry but sudden heavy rains quickly flooded the exit and rushed through the narrow passages, clogging them with mud and debris.
Thailand cave: Rescuers in race against weather as rains close in
Rescue workers are concerned about what might happen when monsoon rains hit
Rescuers are racing against the rains to free 12 boys and their football coach, who are trapped in a flooded cave in northern Thailand.
A deluge is expected to hit in a matter of days that could force the water level up, threatening to flood the pocket where the group took refuge.
The teenage boys and their 25-year-old coach have been trapped for 12 days.
They were found on Monday night by rescue divers, on a rock shelf about 4km (2.5 miles) from the cave mouth.
The boys have now received food, foil blankets, and medical attention, and rescuers are trying to run cables through the cave tunnel so they can speak to their families.
When are the rains coming?
The region of Chiang Rai where the boys are trapped has for the past few days experienced a dry spell, and rescuers have taken advantage of this to pump water out of the cave complex.
About 128 million litres of water had been pumped out by Thursday, with the water levels coming down at an average rate of 1.5cm per hour. Rescue workers are now able to walk through a 1.5km (0.9 mile) stretch from the entrance to what's being called the third chamber.
Image copyrightREUTERS
Image caption
Water is being pumped out of the cave complex around the clock
But heavy monsoon rains are forecast for Sunday. Chiang Rai Governor Narongsak Osotthanakorn said they were "racing against water".
"We are calculating how much time we have it if rains, how many hours and days," he said.
The Tham Luang cave complex is regularly flooded during the rainy season until September or October, raising fears that a delay could leave the boys trapped in the cave for months.
What is being done to rescue the boys?
There is hope that enough water can be pumped out of the cave tunnels for the boys to be able to wade - or be floated - out.
But rescuers are also planning for other eventualities.
A team are exploring the forested mountain land above the cave complex to see if they can find a chimney down to the cavern sheltering the boys. They have enlisted the help of bird-watchers, who are specialists in finding hidden holes, the AFP news agency reports.
Media captionBill Whitehouse from the British Cave Rescue Council explains how the boys and their coach might be rescued
Thai Navy Seal divers are also teaching the boys the basics of diving, with a view to guiding them out through flooded waters if necessary.
But such a rescue would be fraught with risk, say experts. Many of the boys cannot swim or dive, and there is a high risk they might panic in the dark, murky, narrow waterways.
The journey for the group to travel up to the cave entrance would take around five hours, rescue divers say.
The Thai military has previously said that if the boys can't dive out, the group may have to wait for up to four months for flooding to recede before they can leave.
Food and other supplies are being put in place for that eventuality.
What are the rescue options?
'The boys are my brothers'
Helier Cheung, BBC News, Tham Luang cave
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image caption
Teams of volunteers are each playing their part in the rescue effort
Rescue teams are working in extremely difficult conditions. The heat has been sweltering and unrelenting, at over 30C, while much of the site is submerged in squelchy mud that is several inches thick in places and extremely slippery.
But the work has continued at an unrelenting pace. Everyone is aware that once the monsoon rains start, rescue efforts will be much more difficult.
Meanwhile, hundreds of workers are helping to keep the site in order, with road engineers laying gravel to try and secure the mud, workers for the Thai royal kitchen providing hot food for everyone, and volunteers handing out water bottles and ice lollies to those on site.
One local civil servant, who had volunteered to help hand out supplies, said he did not know the boys personally but had decided to help because "I consider the boys in the caves as my brothers".
Community of hope springs up outside cave
How are the boys coping?
Video from Thai Navy special forces on Monday showed the boys looking emaciated but smiling and at times laughing.
The arrival of food, foil blankets and the prospect of speaking to their loved ones will have buoyed their spirits.
But concern is mounting for both their physical and mental health after 12 days below ground - and it is not clear how they would be helped to survive months more in the cave.
Media captionChilean miner sends message to Thai boys
Video shows Thai cave boys in good health
The Brits behind the Thai cave boys search
How will the boys cope underground?
The boys and their coach had gone on their bikes up to the caves on Saturday 23 June after football practice. It was one boy's 16th birthday, and the team had taken a picnic.
They knew the caves, and some reports suggest they had wanted to explore deeper than on previous occasions.
They entered the cave when it was dry but sudden heavy rains quickly flooded the exit and rushed through the narrow passages, clogging them with mud and debris.
Trump’s Supreme Court Pageant Could Come Down to Looks - Intelligencer ( New York Magazine )
July 4, 2018
Trump’s Supreme Court Pageant Could Come Down to Looks
By
Margaret Hartmann
@MargHartmann
He’s a Supreme Court justice, and he could play one on TV. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
President Trump has made no secret of how important appearance is to his hiring process. Trump has often remarked that his nominees just look right for their respective roles, and he’s fond of the phrase “central casting.” When considering Mitt Romney for Secretary of State, he said he “looks the part of a top diplomat right out of ‘central casting.’” In a speech to the National Governors Association he said of Vice President Mike Pence, “He’s a real talent, a real guy. And he is central casting, do we agree? Central casting.” He even used the phrase when referring to military leaders at a post-inauguration lunch, adding, “If I’m doing a movie, I’d pick you General, General Mattis.”
Therefore, it’s unsurprising to hear that as Republican officials consider which potential Supreme Court nominees will face an easier confirmation battle in the Senate, poring over their legal writings, Trump is thinking about more superficial matters.
“Beyond the qualifications, what really matters is, does this nominee fit a central casting image for a Supreme Court nominee, as well as his or her spouse,” a Republican close to the White House told Politico. “That’s a big deal. Do they fit the role?”
While nominating someone to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy might be the most consequential pick of Trump’s time in office, most of the the hard work was already done months ago by the Federalist Society. Since Trump is selecting from their list of 25 conservative justices, there’s no risk of him picking a judge who’s great-looking but ideologically horrifying to his base.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump’s short list has been whittled even further, and is now focused on three U.S. appeals court judges: Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, and Raymond Kethledge. The paper says a “central tension” in the process is whether to base the decision primarily on their work, or on their biography and personal chemistry with Trump.
Kavanaugh is seen as the frontrunner. He’s a former Kennedy clerk with a long record of judicial rulings. One person also noted to Politico that the photo of him being sworn in to the United States Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit “looks all-American” — which seems like a not very subtle way of expressing why Amul Thapar, Mitch McConnell’s favorite candidate and the only minority on Trump’s list, didn’t make the final cut.
Brett Kavanaugh is sworn in by Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy to be a judge to the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images
Trump reportedly asked Marie Louise Gorsuch to stand next to her husband during his nominating speech, and was delighted by the couple’s appealing image. But there’s a problem with the telegenic white people in the Kavanaugh picture: One of them is President George W. Bush. Kavanaugh’s wife, Ashley, is close to the Bush family, having served as W.’s personal secretary for years. Brett Kavanaugh is also a protégé of Ken Starr; he wrote much of the graphic report on Bill Clinton’s relationship with Monica Lewinsky and led the investigation into the death of Vince Foster. Trump’s hatred of the Clintons might triumph over his hatred of the Bushes.
Barrett is a more controversial pick, as she’s a clearer threat to Roe v. Wade, but that might make her more appealing to Trump. The Catholic judge had a previous run-in with Dianne Feinstein, the Senate Judiciary Committee’s ranking Democrat, who remarked during her confirmation hearing that “the dogma lives loudly within you, and that’s of concern.” Feinstein was accused of applying a religious test, and the incident could help fire up the base.
As the Washington Post noted she’s also “young (46), good on her feet, telegenic, unmistakably conservative and, with seven children, has the kind of family you want sitting behind you during tense confirmation hearings.” But that might not be good enough for Trump. A source tells Politico she performed poorly in her interview. Also, the president is said to be looking for someone with a degree from Harvard or Yale, and Barrett went to Rhodes College and Notre Dame Law School.
If personal chemistry with Trump winds up being the determining factor, the nomination could go to Kethledge, the dark horse pick. A source said Kethledge and Trump hit it off during their interview, and the president “loved” him. While he does not hail from the Ivy League, he went to the University of Michigan, one of the most well-respected public schools, for his undergraduate and law degrees.
While there is little publicly available commentary on the attractiveness of Kethledge and his family compared to the other contestants, he has other qualities that seem appealing to Trump: a Midwestern background, a passion for hunting and fishing, and a book on leadership co-authored with West Point graduate and veteran Michael Erwin. Here’s a quote from an interview in which Kethledge describes how they came to write a book about the importance of solitude:
Maybe a month later, Mike and I were having beers in an Irish pub in Ann Arbor. He mentioned a speech that Bill Deresiewicz had given at West Point about solitude and leadership. I talked about my barn office in northern Michigan, in a forested area overlooking Lake Huron. I have no internet connection, the HVAC is a wood stove, and my workspace is a simple pine desk. I told Mike that I get an extra 20 IQ points from being in that office.
He was in the office when he learned he was on Trump’s list of 25 potential Supreme Court nominees:
I was up in my barn office, actually working on a chapter for this book. The landline phone rang. It was my wife, calling from the gym, where she was on a treadmill. She said, “I just saw you on TV! You’re on Trump’s list!”
That was how I heard the news. It was distracting. I really had to get that chapter done in the short time I had up there. So I thanked my wife for letting me know, and went back to work. Fortunately my cellphone doesn’t work up there.
That’s exactly the kind of anecdote Trump would love to share at Monday’s dramatic nomination ceremony.
Though, Steve Bannon claims the media has it all wrong. He suggests that Trump, the former reality-show and beauty pageant host, is making his Supreme Court picks based on a rigorous study of their judicial temperament, while the stodgy lawyers and politicians who previously occupied the Oval Office went mainly by personality.
“I think President Trump is conducting a search built on the principles he established during his first Supreme Court selection — written opinions and the thinking behind them matter most,” the fired White House chief strategist told the Journal. “Past Republican presidents focused on biography and interviews.”
Trump’s Supreme Court Pageant Could Come Down to Looks
By
Margaret Hartmann
@MargHartmann
He’s a Supreme Court justice, and he could play one on TV. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
President Trump has made no secret of how important appearance is to his hiring process. Trump has often remarked that his nominees just look right for their respective roles, and he’s fond of the phrase “central casting.” When considering Mitt Romney for Secretary of State, he said he “looks the part of a top diplomat right out of ‘central casting.’” In a speech to the National Governors Association he said of Vice President Mike Pence, “He’s a real talent, a real guy. And he is central casting, do we agree? Central casting.” He even used the phrase when referring to military leaders at a post-inauguration lunch, adding, “If I’m doing a movie, I’d pick you General, General Mattis.”
Therefore, it’s unsurprising to hear that as Republican officials consider which potential Supreme Court nominees will face an easier confirmation battle in the Senate, poring over their legal writings, Trump is thinking about more superficial matters.
“Beyond the qualifications, what really matters is, does this nominee fit a central casting image for a Supreme Court nominee, as well as his or her spouse,” a Republican close to the White House told Politico. “That’s a big deal. Do they fit the role?”
While nominating someone to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy might be the most consequential pick of Trump’s time in office, most of the the hard work was already done months ago by the Federalist Society. Since Trump is selecting from their list of 25 conservative justices, there’s no risk of him picking a judge who’s great-looking but ideologically horrifying to his base.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump’s short list has been whittled even further, and is now focused on three U.S. appeals court judges: Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, and Raymond Kethledge. The paper says a “central tension” in the process is whether to base the decision primarily on their work, or on their biography and personal chemistry with Trump.
Kavanaugh is seen as the frontrunner. He’s a former Kennedy clerk with a long record of judicial rulings. One person also noted to Politico that the photo of him being sworn in to the United States Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit “looks all-American” — which seems like a not very subtle way of expressing why Amul Thapar, Mitch McConnell’s favorite candidate and the only minority on Trump’s list, didn’t make the final cut.
Brett Kavanaugh is sworn in by Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy to be a judge to the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images
Trump reportedly asked Marie Louise Gorsuch to stand next to her husband during his nominating speech, and was delighted by the couple’s appealing image. But there’s a problem with the telegenic white people in the Kavanaugh picture: One of them is President George W. Bush. Kavanaugh’s wife, Ashley, is close to the Bush family, having served as W.’s personal secretary for years. Brett Kavanaugh is also a protégé of Ken Starr; he wrote much of the graphic report on Bill Clinton’s relationship with Monica Lewinsky and led the investigation into the death of Vince Foster. Trump’s hatred of the Clintons might triumph over his hatred of the Bushes.
Barrett is a more controversial pick, as she’s a clearer threat to Roe v. Wade, but that might make her more appealing to Trump. The Catholic judge had a previous run-in with Dianne Feinstein, the Senate Judiciary Committee’s ranking Democrat, who remarked during her confirmation hearing that “the dogma lives loudly within you, and that’s of concern.” Feinstein was accused of applying a religious test, and the incident could help fire up the base.
As the Washington Post noted she’s also “young (46), good on her feet, telegenic, unmistakably conservative and, with seven children, has the kind of family you want sitting behind you during tense confirmation hearings.” But that might not be good enough for Trump. A source tells Politico she performed poorly in her interview. Also, the president is said to be looking for someone with a degree from Harvard or Yale, and Barrett went to Rhodes College and Notre Dame Law School.
If personal chemistry with Trump winds up being the determining factor, the nomination could go to Kethledge, the dark horse pick. A source said Kethledge and Trump hit it off during their interview, and the president “loved” him. While he does not hail from the Ivy League, he went to the University of Michigan, one of the most well-respected public schools, for his undergraduate and law degrees.
While there is little publicly available commentary on the attractiveness of Kethledge and his family compared to the other contestants, he has other qualities that seem appealing to Trump: a Midwestern background, a passion for hunting and fishing, and a book on leadership co-authored with West Point graduate and veteran Michael Erwin. Here’s a quote from an interview in which Kethledge describes how they came to write a book about the importance of solitude:
Maybe a month later, Mike and I were having beers in an Irish pub in Ann Arbor. He mentioned a speech that Bill Deresiewicz had given at West Point about solitude and leadership. I talked about my barn office in northern Michigan, in a forested area overlooking Lake Huron. I have no internet connection, the HVAC is a wood stove, and my workspace is a simple pine desk. I told Mike that I get an extra 20 IQ points from being in that office.
He was in the office when he learned he was on Trump’s list of 25 potential Supreme Court nominees:
I was up in my barn office, actually working on a chapter for this book. The landline phone rang. It was my wife, calling from the gym, where she was on a treadmill. She said, “I just saw you on TV! You’re on Trump’s list!”
That was how I heard the news. It was distracting. I really had to get that chapter done in the short time I had up there. So I thanked my wife for letting me know, and went back to work. Fortunately my cellphone doesn’t work up there.
That’s exactly the kind of anecdote Trump would love to share at Monday’s dramatic nomination ceremony.
Though, Steve Bannon claims the media has it all wrong. He suggests that Trump, the former reality-show and beauty pageant host, is making his Supreme Court picks based on a rigorous study of their judicial temperament, while the stodgy lawyers and politicians who previously occupied the Oval Office went mainly by personality.
“I think President Trump is conducting a search built on the principles he established during his first Supreme Court selection — written opinions and the thinking behind them matter most,” the fired White House chief strategist told the Journal. “Past Republican presidents focused on biography and interviews.”
Wednesday, July 4, 2018
President Trump Pressed Aides About an Invasion of Venezuela, Says a U.S. Official - TIME
President Trump Pressed Aides About an Invasion of Venezuela, Says a U.S. Official
By JOSHUA GOODMAN / AP 5:34 AM EDT
(BOGOTA) — As a meeting last August in the Oval Office to discuss sanctions on Venezuela was concluding, President Donald Trump turned to his top aides and asked an unsettling question: With a fast unraveling Venezuela threatening regional security, why can’t the U.S. just simply invade the troubled country?
The suggestion stunned those present at the meeting, including U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and national security adviser H.R. McMaster, both of whom have since left the administration. This account of the previously undisclosed conversation comes from a senior administration official familiar with what was said.
In an exchange that lasted around five minutes, McMaster and others took turns explaining to Trump how military action could backfire and risk losing hard-won support among Latin American governments to punish President Nicolas Maduro for taking Venezuela down the path of dictatorship, according to the official. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the discussions.
But Trump pushed back. Although he gave no indication he was about to order up military plans, he pointed to what he considered past cases of successful gunboat diplomacy in the region, according to the official, like the invasions of Panama and Grenada in the 1980s.
The idea, despite his aides’ best attempts to shoot it down, would nonetheless persist in the president’s head.
The next day, Aug. 11, Trump alarmed friends and foes alike with talk of a “military option” to remove Maduro from power. The public remarks were initially dismissed in U.S. policy circles as the sort of martial bluster people have come to expect from the reality TV star turned commander in chief.
But shortly afterward, he raised the issue with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, according to the U.S. official. Two high-ranking Colombian officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid antagonizing Trump confirmed the report.
Then in September, on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, Trump discussed it again, this time at greater length, in a private dinner with leaders from four Latin American allies that included Santos, the same three people said and Politico reported in February.
The U.S. official said Trump was specifically briefed not to raise the issue and told it wouldn’t play well, but the first thing the president said at the dinner was, “My staff told me not to say this.” Trump then went around asking each leader if they were sure they didn’t want a military solution, according to the official, who added that each leader told Trump in clear terms they were sure.
Eventually, McMaster would pull aside the president and walk him through the dangers of an invasion, the official said.
Taken together, the behind-the-scenes talks, the extent and details of which have not been previously reported, highlight how Venezuela’s political and economic crisis has received top attention under Trump in a way that was unimaginable in the Obama administration. But critics say it also underscores how his “America First” foreign policy at times can seem outright reckless, providing ammunition to America’s adversaries.
The White House declined to comment on the private conversations. But a National Security Council spokesman reiterated that the U.S. will consider all options at its disposal to help restore Venezuela’s democracy and bring stability. Under Trump’s leadership, the U.S., Canada and European Union have levied sanctions on dozens of top Venezuelan officials, including Maduro himself, over allegations of corruption, drug trafficking and human rights abuses. The U.S. has also distributed more than $30 million to help Venezuela’s neighbors absorb an influx of more than 1 million migrants who have fled the country.
For Maduro, who has long claimed that the U.S. has military designs on Venezuela and its vast oil reserves, Trump’s bellicose talk provided the unpopular leader with an immediate if short-lived boost as he was trying to escape blame for widespread food shortages and hyperinflation. Within days of the president’s talk of a military option, Maduro filled the streets of Caracas with loyalists to condemn “Emperor” Trump’s belligerence, ordered up nationwide military exercises and threatened with arrest opponents he said were plotting his overthrow with the U.S.
“Mind your own business and solve your own problems, Mr. Trump!” thundered Nicolas Maduro, the president’s son, at the government-stacked constituent assembly. “If Venezuela were attacked, the rifles will arrive in New York, Mr. Trump,” the younger Maduro said. “We will take the White House.”
Even some of the staunchest U.S. allies were begrudgingly forced to side with Maduro in condemning Trump’s saber rattling. Santos, a big backer of U.S. attempts to isolate Maduro, said an invasion would have zero support in the region. The Mercosur trade bloc, which includes Brazil and Argentina, issued a statement saying “the only acceptable means of promoting democracy are dialogue and diplomacy” and repudiating “any option that implies the use of force.”
But among Venezuela’s beleaguered opposition movement, hostility to the idea of a military intervention has slowly eased.
A few weeks after Trump’s public comments, Harvard economics professor Ricardo Hausmann, a former Venezuelan planning minister, wrote a syndicated column titled “D Day Venezuela,” in which he called for a “coalition of the willing” made up of regional powers and the U.S. to step in and support militarily a government appointed by the opposition-led national assembly.
Mark Feierstein, who oversaw Latin America on the National Security Council during the Obama administration, said that strident U.S. action on Venezuela, however commendable, won’t loosen Maduro’s grip on power if it’s not accompanied by pressure from the streets. However, he thinks Venezuelans have largely been demoralized after a crackdown on protests last year triggered dozens of deaths, and the threat of more repression has forced dozens of opposition leaders into exile.
“People inside and outside the administration know they can ignore plenty of what Trump says,” Feierstein, who is now a senior adviser at the Albright Stonebridge Group, said of Trump’s talk of military invasion of Venezuela. “The concern is that it raised expectations among Venezuelans, many of whom are waiting for an external actor to save them.”
By JOSHUA GOODMAN / AP 5:34 AM EDT
(BOGOTA) — As a meeting last August in the Oval Office to discuss sanctions on Venezuela was concluding, President Donald Trump turned to his top aides and asked an unsettling question: With a fast unraveling Venezuela threatening regional security, why can’t the U.S. just simply invade the troubled country?
The suggestion stunned those present at the meeting, including U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and national security adviser H.R. McMaster, both of whom have since left the administration. This account of the previously undisclosed conversation comes from a senior administration official familiar with what was said.
In an exchange that lasted around five minutes, McMaster and others took turns explaining to Trump how military action could backfire and risk losing hard-won support among Latin American governments to punish President Nicolas Maduro for taking Venezuela down the path of dictatorship, according to the official. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the discussions.
But Trump pushed back. Although he gave no indication he was about to order up military plans, he pointed to what he considered past cases of successful gunboat diplomacy in the region, according to the official, like the invasions of Panama and Grenada in the 1980s.
The idea, despite his aides’ best attempts to shoot it down, would nonetheless persist in the president’s head.
The next day, Aug. 11, Trump alarmed friends and foes alike with talk of a “military option” to remove Maduro from power. The public remarks were initially dismissed in U.S. policy circles as the sort of martial bluster people have come to expect from the reality TV star turned commander in chief.
But shortly afterward, he raised the issue with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, according to the U.S. official. Two high-ranking Colombian officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid antagonizing Trump confirmed the report.
Then in September, on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, Trump discussed it again, this time at greater length, in a private dinner with leaders from four Latin American allies that included Santos, the same three people said and Politico reported in February.
The U.S. official said Trump was specifically briefed not to raise the issue and told it wouldn’t play well, but the first thing the president said at the dinner was, “My staff told me not to say this.” Trump then went around asking each leader if they were sure they didn’t want a military solution, according to the official, who added that each leader told Trump in clear terms they were sure.
Eventually, McMaster would pull aside the president and walk him through the dangers of an invasion, the official said.
Taken together, the behind-the-scenes talks, the extent and details of which have not been previously reported, highlight how Venezuela’s political and economic crisis has received top attention under Trump in a way that was unimaginable in the Obama administration. But critics say it also underscores how his “America First” foreign policy at times can seem outright reckless, providing ammunition to America’s adversaries.
The White House declined to comment on the private conversations. But a National Security Council spokesman reiterated that the U.S. will consider all options at its disposal to help restore Venezuela’s democracy and bring stability. Under Trump’s leadership, the U.S., Canada and European Union have levied sanctions on dozens of top Venezuelan officials, including Maduro himself, over allegations of corruption, drug trafficking and human rights abuses. The U.S. has also distributed more than $30 million to help Venezuela’s neighbors absorb an influx of more than 1 million migrants who have fled the country.
For Maduro, who has long claimed that the U.S. has military designs on Venezuela and its vast oil reserves, Trump’s bellicose talk provided the unpopular leader with an immediate if short-lived boost as he was trying to escape blame for widespread food shortages and hyperinflation. Within days of the president’s talk of a military option, Maduro filled the streets of Caracas with loyalists to condemn “Emperor” Trump’s belligerence, ordered up nationwide military exercises and threatened with arrest opponents he said were plotting his overthrow with the U.S.
“Mind your own business and solve your own problems, Mr. Trump!” thundered Nicolas Maduro, the president’s son, at the government-stacked constituent assembly. “If Venezuela were attacked, the rifles will arrive in New York, Mr. Trump,” the younger Maduro said. “We will take the White House.”
Even some of the staunchest U.S. allies were begrudgingly forced to side with Maduro in condemning Trump’s saber rattling. Santos, a big backer of U.S. attempts to isolate Maduro, said an invasion would have zero support in the region. The Mercosur trade bloc, which includes Brazil and Argentina, issued a statement saying “the only acceptable means of promoting democracy are dialogue and diplomacy” and repudiating “any option that implies the use of force.”
But among Venezuela’s beleaguered opposition movement, hostility to the idea of a military intervention has slowly eased.
A few weeks after Trump’s public comments, Harvard economics professor Ricardo Hausmann, a former Venezuelan planning minister, wrote a syndicated column titled “D Day Venezuela,” in which he called for a “coalition of the willing” made up of regional powers and the U.S. to step in and support militarily a government appointed by the opposition-led national assembly.
Mark Feierstein, who oversaw Latin America on the National Security Council during the Obama administration, said that strident U.S. action on Venezuela, however commendable, won’t loosen Maduro’s grip on power if it’s not accompanied by pressure from the streets. However, he thinks Venezuelans have largely been demoralized after a crackdown on protests last year triggered dozens of deaths, and the threat of more repression has forced dozens of opposition leaders into exile.
“People inside and outside the administration know they can ignore plenty of what Trump says,” Feierstein, who is now a senior adviser at the Albright Stonebridge Group, said of Trump’s talk of military invasion of Venezuela. “The concern is that it raised expectations among Venezuelans, many of whom are waiting for an external actor to save them.”
China to impose $34bn tariffs before the US as trade dispute escalates - Guardian
China to impose $34bn tariffs before the US as trade dispute escalates
Both sides made 6 July tariff threat but 12-hour time difference gives Chinese edge
Julia Kollewe
Wed 4 Jul 2018 19.37 AEST
A Chinese flag in front of containers at the Yangshan Deep-Water Port
There had been hopes that the US and China might step away from the measures but neither side has backed down. Photograph: Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images
China is poised to fire the opening salvo in an escalating trade dispute with the US by bringing in 25% tariffs on $34bn of US goods a day earlier than Washington.
Both sides have threatened to impose similarly sized tariffs on 6 July but because of the 12-hour time difference, the Chinese tariffs on US imports ranging from soybean to stainless steel pipes will take effect earlier.
Chinese officials are preparing to implement them from midnight Beijing time on 6 July, Reuters reported. That is noon on Thursday in Washington and 5pm UK time.
The US will implement a 25% tariff on $34bn of Chinese imports – on 818 product lines ranging from cars to vaporisers and “smart home” devices – on Friday.
There had been hopes that the US and China might step away from the measures but neither side has backed down. Economists have warned that the tariffs will damage economic growth and cost jobs, and could escalate into a full-blow trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Last month the Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler became the first major company to issue a profit warning on the back of the trade dispute. The German firm makes Mercedes SUVs in the US and ships them to China, its biggest market.
Donald Trump has threatened to escalate the conflict by imposing further tariffs on up to $200bn of Chinese goods, if Beijing retaliates on Friday.
China’s stock market fell sharply on Wednesday as traders worried about the escalating trade dispute. The benchmark Shanghai Composite index dropped 1% to finish the day at 2,759 points, its lowest closing point since March 2016.
US markets are closed for Independence Day following a move lower on Tuesday.
Michael Hewson, the chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: “In a holiday shortened US session before the 4 July holiday, US equity markets finished lower on the day as trade concerns kept investors cautious.
“Sharp moves in the Chinese currency prompted speculation that Chinese authorities were manipulating the rate in order to offset some of the worst effects of US tariffs.”
Both sides made 6 July tariff threat but 12-hour time difference gives Chinese edge
Julia Kollewe
Wed 4 Jul 2018 19.37 AEST
A Chinese flag in front of containers at the Yangshan Deep-Water Port
There had been hopes that the US and China might step away from the measures but neither side has backed down. Photograph: Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images
China is poised to fire the opening salvo in an escalating trade dispute with the US by bringing in 25% tariffs on $34bn of US goods a day earlier than Washington.
Both sides have threatened to impose similarly sized tariffs on 6 July but because of the 12-hour time difference, the Chinese tariffs on US imports ranging from soybean to stainless steel pipes will take effect earlier.
Chinese officials are preparing to implement them from midnight Beijing time on 6 July, Reuters reported. That is noon on Thursday in Washington and 5pm UK time.
The US will implement a 25% tariff on $34bn of Chinese imports – on 818 product lines ranging from cars to vaporisers and “smart home” devices – on Friday.
There had been hopes that the US and China might step away from the measures but neither side has backed down. Economists have warned that the tariffs will damage economic growth and cost jobs, and could escalate into a full-blow trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Last month the Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler became the first major company to issue a profit warning on the back of the trade dispute. The German firm makes Mercedes SUVs in the US and ships them to China, its biggest market.
Donald Trump has threatened to escalate the conflict by imposing further tariffs on up to $200bn of Chinese goods, if Beijing retaliates on Friday.
China’s stock market fell sharply on Wednesday as traders worried about the escalating trade dispute. The benchmark Shanghai Composite index dropped 1% to finish the day at 2,759 points, its lowest closing point since March 2016.
US markets are closed for Independence Day following a move lower on Tuesday.
Michael Hewson, the chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: “In a holiday shortened US session before the 4 July holiday, US equity markets finished lower on the day as trade concerns kept investors cautious.
“Sharp moves in the Chinese currency prompted speculation that Chinese authorities were manipulating the rate in order to offset some of the worst effects of US tariffs.”
Is North Korea secretly continuing its nuclear programme? - BBC News
Is North Korea secretly continuing its nuclear programme?
By Andreas Illmer
BBC News
2 July 2018
Reports that North Korea is continuing its weapons programme, despite pledges to denuclearise, have cast doubt on its sincerity in peace talks.
The recent reports, based on US intelligence leaks, suggest the country is still upgrading its nuclear enrichment sites, among other activities. So what's actually going on?
What are the allegations?
Here's what has been reported across US media:
North Korea's only official nuclear enrichment site at Yongbyon is being upgraded.
The country is stepping up enrichment at two or more secret sites besides Yongbyon.
Pyongyang continues to produce more mobile launch vehicles for its ballistic missiles.
It has also expanded missile production of solid fuel engines which are more mobile and easier to launch.
How reliable are these reports? They are "only" reports but they are deemed accurate by respected North Korea watchers.
The information is based on multiple unnamed sources from the US intelligence community as well as the 38 North study of satellite images of the Yongbyon site.
Skip Twitter post by @nktpnd
Ankit Panda
✔
@nktpnd
In summary: centrifuges spin at Yongbyon, Kangson, and another facility; KN15 TELs continue to roll out; the Hamhung solid-fuel shop expands considerably.
We shouldn't be surprised; these are in line with Kim's New Year's Day directive on warhead/ballistic missile production.
10:29 AM - Jul 2, 2018
How serious are they?
"None of that activity is in violation of any agreements made at the Singapore summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un," explains Vipin Narang, MIT professor for political science and specialist on nuclear proliferation.
In the declaration wrapping up that summit, Pyongyang merely agreed to work towards denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, something it sees as a phased process.
Details of the process still remain to be worked out by the two sides.
"This was never going to be unilateral and immediate," says Mr Narang. "So Kim Jong-un is free to continue operating the existing sites."
To trust or not to trust, that is the question
Yet the reports that the North is continuing its nuclear activity is still seen as undermining the spirit of the summit and casts doubt on Pyongyang's sincerity to denuclearise.
"The bigger picture here is that North Korea's nuclear programme continues as directed by Kim Jong-un in his speech in January, where he urged the continued production of warheads and ballistic missiles," explains Ankit Panda, editor at The Diplomat magazine.
What were the results of the Trump-Kim summit?
North Korean propaganda changes its tune
N Korea still poses major threat - Trump
What is the biggest news?
Solid fuel engines are more mobile and hence a big step for Pyongyang. Together with the mobile launchers, it means that North Korea can fire missiles from sites that can be quickly set up and not be detected ahead of time by South Korea or the US.
Yet the biggest revelation has been the details about North Korea's secret enrichment sites. So far, Pyongyang has only ever admitted to one enrichment site: Yongbyon.
Solid fuel and mobile launchers would be a major step for Pyongyang
It's been a longstanding suspicion though that there are more, secret sites. An exclusive NBC report based on US intelligence sources confirmed and named one such site and says there is at least one more secret enrichment site.
"You can imagine a North Korean strategy where - without a full disclosure of all their facilities - they can offer to shut down some of the known sites in order to get sanctions relief," explains Mr Narang.
"At the same time they would clandestinely push ahead at the secret sites."
A sacred mountain and other ideologies
On board the train to Korea's music festival for peace
Inside the North Korean place that ‘doesn’t exist’
Why is timing important?
The information coming from the US intelligence sources is presumably something they have known for quite some time. Mr Trump is likely to have been briefed about that very information in the run-up to the Singapore summit.
So why is it now being leaked to the media?
"The sheer number of leaks on nuclear activity makes it look like an authorised attempt to get that intel out into the public sphere," says Mr Abrahamian.
Experts believe there are two reasons why the US intelligence community might have chosen to disclose its information at this point in time.
Scenario one would be "to counter the narrative coming from the White House that it's 'mission accomplished' and that North Korea is no longer a nuclear threat," explains Mr Narang.
It may therefore "constrain Trump a bit so he can't claim successes that have not yet be reached", agrees Mr Abrahamian. "It gets the foreign policy community riled up and increases pressure on Trump not to be soft on the [North] Koreans."
The other scenario would be that it's in fact co-ordinated by the Trump administration to generate leverage. By revealing the extent of US intel, Washington can put pressure on North Korea to admit to its secret sites and operations.
The leaked intel could be a way to say 'Mr Kim, we're watching you'
"The assumption was always that we would let the North Koreans disclose their own sites and check that against the list the US intelligence community maintains," explains Mr Panda. "Immediately you would have a sense of whether or not the North Koreans are negotiating in good faith.
"Now that we have put out what we know about the covert enrichment sites, we can see if the North Koreans will choose to disclose those or not."
Will the pressure work?
What remains is the bigger question of whether post-Singapore summit, this kind of pressure will really be able to steer Pyongyang into line.
The flurry of recent reports of North Korea's continued nuclear and military efforts suggest the country is intent on maintaining its nuclear and ballistic capabilities and even to continuing to produce them.
"It could be that Pyongyang is calculating that no matter what, China is already off the maximum pressure campaign of sanctions against North Korea. And the US really can't sustain it without China," warns Mr Narang.
"Kim Jong-un might simply say 'I've done what I have to in order to break the maximum pressure campaign' - and I think he might be right."
By Andreas Illmer
BBC News
2 July 2018
Reports that North Korea is continuing its weapons programme, despite pledges to denuclearise, have cast doubt on its sincerity in peace talks.
The recent reports, based on US intelligence leaks, suggest the country is still upgrading its nuclear enrichment sites, among other activities. So what's actually going on?
What are the allegations?
Here's what has been reported across US media:
North Korea's only official nuclear enrichment site at Yongbyon is being upgraded.
The country is stepping up enrichment at two or more secret sites besides Yongbyon.
Pyongyang continues to produce more mobile launch vehicles for its ballistic missiles.
It has also expanded missile production of solid fuel engines which are more mobile and easier to launch.
How reliable are these reports? They are "only" reports but they are deemed accurate by respected North Korea watchers.
The information is based on multiple unnamed sources from the US intelligence community as well as the 38 North study of satellite images of the Yongbyon site.
Skip Twitter post by @nktpnd
Ankit Panda
✔
@nktpnd
In summary: centrifuges spin at Yongbyon, Kangson, and another facility; KN15 TELs continue to roll out; the Hamhung solid-fuel shop expands considerably.
We shouldn't be surprised; these are in line with Kim's New Year's Day directive on warhead/ballistic missile production.
10:29 AM - Jul 2, 2018
How serious are they?
"None of that activity is in violation of any agreements made at the Singapore summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un," explains Vipin Narang, MIT professor for political science and specialist on nuclear proliferation.
In the declaration wrapping up that summit, Pyongyang merely agreed to work towards denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, something it sees as a phased process.
Details of the process still remain to be worked out by the two sides.
"This was never going to be unilateral and immediate," says Mr Narang. "So Kim Jong-un is free to continue operating the existing sites."
To trust or not to trust, that is the question
Yet the reports that the North is continuing its nuclear activity is still seen as undermining the spirit of the summit and casts doubt on Pyongyang's sincerity to denuclearise.
"The bigger picture here is that North Korea's nuclear programme continues as directed by Kim Jong-un in his speech in January, where he urged the continued production of warheads and ballistic missiles," explains Ankit Panda, editor at The Diplomat magazine.
What were the results of the Trump-Kim summit?
North Korean propaganda changes its tune
N Korea still poses major threat - Trump
What is the biggest news?
Solid fuel engines are more mobile and hence a big step for Pyongyang. Together with the mobile launchers, it means that North Korea can fire missiles from sites that can be quickly set up and not be detected ahead of time by South Korea or the US.
Yet the biggest revelation has been the details about North Korea's secret enrichment sites. So far, Pyongyang has only ever admitted to one enrichment site: Yongbyon.
Solid fuel and mobile launchers would be a major step for Pyongyang
It's been a longstanding suspicion though that there are more, secret sites. An exclusive NBC report based on US intelligence sources confirmed and named one such site and says there is at least one more secret enrichment site.
"You can imagine a North Korean strategy where - without a full disclosure of all their facilities - they can offer to shut down some of the known sites in order to get sanctions relief," explains Mr Narang.
"At the same time they would clandestinely push ahead at the secret sites."
A sacred mountain and other ideologies
On board the train to Korea's music festival for peace
Inside the North Korean place that ‘doesn’t exist’
Why is timing important?
The information coming from the US intelligence sources is presumably something they have known for quite some time. Mr Trump is likely to have been briefed about that very information in the run-up to the Singapore summit.
So why is it now being leaked to the media?
"The sheer number of leaks on nuclear activity makes it look like an authorised attempt to get that intel out into the public sphere," says Mr Abrahamian.
Experts believe there are two reasons why the US intelligence community might have chosen to disclose its information at this point in time.
Scenario one would be "to counter the narrative coming from the White House that it's 'mission accomplished' and that North Korea is no longer a nuclear threat," explains Mr Narang.
It may therefore "constrain Trump a bit so he can't claim successes that have not yet be reached", agrees Mr Abrahamian. "It gets the foreign policy community riled up and increases pressure on Trump not to be soft on the [North] Koreans."
The other scenario would be that it's in fact co-ordinated by the Trump administration to generate leverage. By revealing the extent of US intel, Washington can put pressure on North Korea to admit to its secret sites and operations.
The leaked intel could be a way to say 'Mr Kim, we're watching you'
"The assumption was always that we would let the North Koreans disclose their own sites and check that against the list the US intelligence community maintains," explains Mr Panda. "Immediately you would have a sense of whether or not the North Koreans are negotiating in good faith.
"Now that we have put out what we know about the covert enrichment sites, we can see if the North Koreans will choose to disclose those or not."
Will the pressure work?
What remains is the bigger question of whether post-Singapore summit, this kind of pressure will really be able to steer Pyongyang into line.
The flurry of recent reports of North Korea's continued nuclear and military efforts suggest the country is intent on maintaining its nuclear and ballistic capabilities and even to continuing to produce them.
"It could be that Pyongyang is calculating that no matter what, China is already off the maximum pressure campaign of sanctions against North Korea. And the US really can't sustain it without China," warns Mr Narang.
"Kim Jong-un might simply say 'I've done what I have to in order to break the maximum pressure campaign' - and I think he might be right."
FAA declines to regulate more legroom for airline passengers - NBC News
FAA declines to regulate more legroom for airline passengers
Group called FlyersRights says passenger space on flights is dangerously confined and could hinder emergency evacuations.
by Dennis Romero, Tom Costello and Associated Press / Jul.04.2018 / 11:01 AM ET / Updated 11:03 AM ET
FAA refuses to regulate plane seating
JUL.04.201801:13
The Federal Aviation Administration said Tuesday that even though America's collective waistline is expanding, airlines are free to keep putting passenger room on a diet.
The agency was responding to a legal challenge by the group FlyersRights, which argued that current seatback-to-seatback measurements could hinder passengers' evacuation during emergencies.
"The FAA has no evidence that there is an immediate safety issue necessitating rulemaking at this time," the agency wrote in a letter responding to the court challenge.
Speaking to NBC News, FlyersRights staff attorney Andrew Applebaum responded: "Over the last 20 years the average American passenger has grown taller and larger and that makes it more difficult for passengers to evacuate from the airplane."
The group seeks to "establish a moratorium on further seat size shrinkage" on passenger jets, Applebaum said. Economy class space from seatback to seatback has been reduced from 35 inches to 28 inches on some planes. Seat width has not seen similar reductions.
The FAA does not regulate these dimensions, but it has set a 90-second standard for emergency evacuation with half the exits blocked.
In response to FlyersRights' court challenge, plane manufacturers submitted to the court videos of evacuation drills that show packed planes being emptied within the 90-second limit. However, the travelers' group says some of those exercises were conducted decades ago, when the average American was smaller.
"We observed that the passengers, the test subjects, were younger and smaller than the the average American," Applebaum said.
The Centers for Disease Control has recently said that 70 percent of adults in the United States are now overweight or obese.
Hollywood actor maimed in kidnapping, ransom plot, indictment says
The manufacturers' imagery, FlyersRights claims, is unrealistic, doesn't show the entire evacuation procedure, and does not depict anyone reaching for carry-on bags, which have increased in number as baggage fees have swept the industry.
In an affidavit submitted to the court, FAA safety engineer Jeffrey Gardlin countered that real-world crash- and emergency landings from the last three years also prove that passengers — overweight and otherwise —can escape safely.
The "Miracle on the Hudson," U.S. Airways Flight 1549 in January 2009 — immortalized by Hollywood in the Tom Hanks movie "Sully" — was held up as a modern example of "an effective and timely evacuation," according to a conclusion by the National Transportation and Safety Board. All 155 people on board escaped to safety.
Exit door size, which is regulated, is one reason passengers usually make it out during modern emergencies, Gardlin stated. But he also argued that the size of a passenger doesn't make a crucial difference in exit times.
The FAA decision was a response to the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, which had ordered the agency to take a second look at regulating seat size and passenger room. The court challenge had taken the form of a rule-making petition by FlyersRights, which says it might appeal the FAA's decision.
In the meantime the advocacy group says it is drafting a letter in response to the FAA's stance.
A bill passed by the House of Representatives in April would force the FAA to establish some minimum passenger room measurements, but it would leave the specific numbers up to the agency. It's currently being weighed by the Senate.
"Lives are at stake here," said Applebaum. "We need to make sure that the FAA and the manufacturers are actually testing full scale demonstrations."
Group called FlyersRights says passenger space on flights is dangerously confined and could hinder emergency evacuations.
by Dennis Romero, Tom Costello and Associated Press / Jul.04.2018 / 11:01 AM ET / Updated 11:03 AM ET
FAA refuses to regulate plane seating
JUL.04.201801:13
The Federal Aviation Administration said Tuesday that even though America's collective waistline is expanding, airlines are free to keep putting passenger room on a diet.
The agency was responding to a legal challenge by the group FlyersRights, which argued that current seatback-to-seatback measurements could hinder passengers' evacuation during emergencies.
"The FAA has no evidence that there is an immediate safety issue necessitating rulemaking at this time," the agency wrote in a letter responding to the court challenge.
Speaking to NBC News, FlyersRights staff attorney Andrew Applebaum responded: "Over the last 20 years the average American passenger has grown taller and larger and that makes it more difficult for passengers to evacuate from the airplane."
The group seeks to "establish a moratorium on further seat size shrinkage" on passenger jets, Applebaum said. Economy class space from seatback to seatback has been reduced from 35 inches to 28 inches on some planes. Seat width has not seen similar reductions.
The FAA does not regulate these dimensions, but it has set a 90-second standard for emergency evacuation with half the exits blocked.
In response to FlyersRights' court challenge, plane manufacturers submitted to the court videos of evacuation drills that show packed planes being emptied within the 90-second limit. However, the travelers' group says some of those exercises were conducted decades ago, when the average American was smaller.
"We observed that the passengers, the test subjects, were younger and smaller than the the average American," Applebaum said.
The Centers for Disease Control has recently said that 70 percent of adults in the United States are now overweight or obese.
Hollywood actor maimed in kidnapping, ransom plot, indictment says
The manufacturers' imagery, FlyersRights claims, is unrealistic, doesn't show the entire evacuation procedure, and does not depict anyone reaching for carry-on bags, which have increased in number as baggage fees have swept the industry.
In an affidavit submitted to the court, FAA safety engineer Jeffrey Gardlin countered that real-world crash- and emergency landings from the last three years also prove that passengers — overweight and otherwise —can escape safely.
The "Miracle on the Hudson," U.S. Airways Flight 1549 in January 2009 — immortalized by Hollywood in the Tom Hanks movie "Sully" — was held up as a modern example of "an effective and timely evacuation," according to a conclusion by the National Transportation and Safety Board. All 155 people on board escaped to safety.
Exit door size, which is regulated, is one reason passengers usually make it out during modern emergencies, Gardlin stated. But he also argued that the size of a passenger doesn't make a crucial difference in exit times.
The FAA decision was a response to the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, which had ordered the agency to take a second look at regulating seat size and passenger room. The court challenge had taken the form of a rule-making petition by FlyersRights, which says it might appeal the FAA's decision.
In the meantime the advocacy group says it is drafting a letter in response to the FAA's stance.
A bill passed by the House of Representatives in April would force the FAA to establish some minimum passenger room measurements, but it would leave the specific numbers up to the agency. It's currently being weighed by the Senate.
"Lives are at stake here," said Applebaum. "We need to make sure that the FAA and the manufacturers are actually testing full scale demonstrations."
Amesbury: Two collapse near Russian spy poisoning site - BBC News
July 4, 2018
Amesbury: Two collapse near Russian spy poisoning site
Police have cordoned off a number of areas including Muggleton Road in Amesbury
A man and woman feared to have been exposed to an unknown substance are in a critical condition, prompting police to declare a major incident.
The pair, in their 40s, were found unconscious in what was thought to be in a drugs-related incident in Amesbury, Wiltshire, on Saturday.
Further tests on the substance are being carried out to identify it.
Amesbury is about 10 miles from Salisbury, where a former Russian spy and his daughter were poisoned.
Sergei Skripal and daughter Yulia were poisoned with Novichok, a suspected military nerve agent, in March.
Police said they are "open-minded" about the cause after a couple were found at a house in Muggleton Road, Amesbury.
Image caption
Queen Elizabeth Gardens in Salisbury was one of a number of areas cordoned off overnight
While it was not clear whether a crime had been committed, the force said, a number of places in Amesbury and Salisbury known to have been frequented by the couple had been cordoned off.
Russian spy: What happened to the Skripals?
"It was initially believed that the two patients fell ill after using possibly heroin or crack cocaine from a contaminated batch of drugs," Wiltshire Police said.
"They are both currently receiving treatment for suspected exposure to an unknown substance at Salisbury District Hospital," it added.
The couple are believe to have attended a family fun day at Amesbury Baptist Church on Saturday afternoon before they were found unconscious in the property.
Roy Collins, church secretary, said "nobody else has suffered any ill-effects" from attending the community event and "there was nothing going on that was nefarious".
"There have been no reports of any other incidents," he said.
"We are all quite puzzled and shocked - naturally the connection with Salisbury and recent events there mean there is a heightened public interest."
Parked outside the red brick Amesbury Baptist Centre are three police cars and four or five officers standing around with one jotting something down in a notepad.
There are no forensic tents, and it all feels like a very low key operation.
It doesn't feel like a Hazchem or Hazardous Chemical incident. It's not Skripal part two.
It does seem like an incredible coincidence for another incident like this to occur, it may just be the police being cautious or there could be something more to it.
Local resident Jake Murphy said he was watching the football on Tuesday night when "all these police cars appeared".
"I didn't know what was happening," he said.
Justin Doughty, who lives opposite the police cordon, said none of the residents have been "told anything by the police".
"We would have thought the police would have been more forthcoming and keep us in the loop."
A government spokesman said ministers were "being kept up to date about the incident in Amesbury".
Wiltshire's Police and Crime Commissioner Angus Macpherson said the police had worked hard at "containing any risk that might be there".
"There's no reason to think it's connected with matters of last month," he said.
"I haven't seen anything in this incident yet that I would consider to be an overreaction in terms of previous incidents, it all seems fairly textbook."
Public Health England said it did not believe there was a "significant health risk" to the wider public, although its advice was being continually assessed.
The hospital was "open as usual" and advised patients to attend routine appointments unless contacted and advised to do otherwise.
Amesbury: Two collapse near Russian spy poisoning site
Police have cordoned off a number of areas including Muggleton Road in Amesbury
A man and woman feared to have been exposed to an unknown substance are in a critical condition, prompting police to declare a major incident.
The pair, in their 40s, were found unconscious in what was thought to be in a drugs-related incident in Amesbury, Wiltshire, on Saturday.
Further tests on the substance are being carried out to identify it.
Amesbury is about 10 miles from Salisbury, where a former Russian spy and his daughter were poisoned.
Sergei Skripal and daughter Yulia were poisoned with Novichok, a suspected military nerve agent, in March.
Police said they are "open-minded" about the cause after a couple were found at a house in Muggleton Road, Amesbury.
Image caption
Queen Elizabeth Gardens in Salisbury was one of a number of areas cordoned off overnight
While it was not clear whether a crime had been committed, the force said, a number of places in Amesbury and Salisbury known to have been frequented by the couple had been cordoned off.
Russian spy: What happened to the Skripals?
"It was initially believed that the two patients fell ill after using possibly heroin or crack cocaine from a contaminated batch of drugs," Wiltshire Police said.
"They are both currently receiving treatment for suspected exposure to an unknown substance at Salisbury District Hospital," it added.
The couple are believe to have attended a family fun day at Amesbury Baptist Church on Saturday afternoon before they were found unconscious in the property.
Roy Collins, church secretary, said "nobody else has suffered any ill-effects" from attending the community event and "there was nothing going on that was nefarious".
"There have been no reports of any other incidents," he said.
"We are all quite puzzled and shocked - naturally the connection with Salisbury and recent events there mean there is a heightened public interest."
Parked outside the red brick Amesbury Baptist Centre are three police cars and four or five officers standing around with one jotting something down in a notepad.
There are no forensic tents, and it all feels like a very low key operation.
It doesn't feel like a Hazchem or Hazardous Chemical incident. It's not Skripal part two.
It does seem like an incredible coincidence for another incident like this to occur, it may just be the police being cautious or there could be something more to it.
Local resident Jake Murphy said he was watching the football on Tuesday night when "all these police cars appeared".
"I didn't know what was happening," he said.
Justin Doughty, who lives opposite the police cordon, said none of the residents have been "told anything by the police".
"We would have thought the police would have been more forthcoming and keep us in the loop."
A government spokesman said ministers were "being kept up to date about the incident in Amesbury".
Wiltshire's Police and Crime Commissioner Angus Macpherson said the police had worked hard at "containing any risk that might be there".
"There's no reason to think it's connected with matters of last month," he said.
"I haven't seen anything in this incident yet that I would consider to be an overreaction in terms of previous incidents, it all seems fairly textbook."
Public Health England said it did not believe there was a "significant health risk" to the wider public, although its advice was being continually assessed.
The hospital was "open as usual" and advised patients to attend routine appointments unless contacted and advised to do otherwise.
Tuesday, July 3, 2018
Trump’s Ineptitude Is No Joke - The administration’s missteps continue unabated - Bloomberg
Trump’s Ineptitude Is No Joke
The administration’s missteps continue unabated. Plus, Jonathan Bernstein’s morning links.
By
637
July 3, 2018, 12:34 AM GMT+10
We’re not laughing, either. Photographer: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images
It’s hard to imagine a better quick story summing up the Donald Trump administration than the one that broke Sunday night about a bill the White House was preparing to, as Jonathan Swan at Axios put it, “declare America’s abandonment of fundamental World Trade Organization rules” by giving the president authority to unilaterally break those rules.
Let’s see …
The policy is nuts; virtually all experts, both in trade and in foreign policy, believe global trade is very good for the U.S.
In fact, according to Swan’s reporting, almost everyone in the White House thinks the bill “is unrealistic or unworkable.”
Why does it exist, then? Because Trump ordered it, and sometimes the best way to mollify a president is to give him what he wants — very slowly, and without anything actually happening. Apparently this thing has been kicking around for months.
The bill has virtually no chance whatsoever of being enacted into law.
The draft bill has a title, the United States Fair and Reciprocal Tariff Act, which yields an acronym that had every Twitter wag making fart jokes Sunday night.
On that last point, political scientist Brendan Nyhan made the crucial point: There are actually two perfectly plausible explanations. The ridiculous title could be just another sign of an administration that routinely botches basic tasks; after all, official White House communications have been plagued by typos ever since Trump took office, and just a few days ago a prankster claiming to be New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez managed to get a call through to the president. But it’s equally possible it was a malicious effort to undermine the policy by someone in the White House or an executive-branch agency; all administrations leak, but none before this have leaked so often with information that looked this bad for the president.
So to summarize: The president ordered something inept; he’s not going to get what he wanted; and everyone in the administration has egg on their faces over it.
What’s even more amazing about this is that Trump seems to be oblivious to all of it. For all we know, he really thinks that North Korea is giving up its nuclear weapons (it isn’t), the border wall is under construction (nope), and that he’s going to get his Space Force (seems extremely unlikely, even if Trump thinks wars against the Pentagon bureaucracy are good and easy to win).
He remains such a weak president that he has to select a Supreme Court nominee from a list supplied by an interest group. But he doesn’t appear to realize it — and he certainly isn’t demonstrating any ability to change the situation. Meanwhile, he’ll just keep ordering people to do things that (most of the time at least) will never happen, while the few competent people he’s somehow managed to put in place will continue to do things in his name whether he likes it or not. I could add a fart joke, but the whole thing really isn’t very funny.
1. Stephanie Carvin at the Monkey Cage on Trump and Canadian foreign policy.
2. Seth Masket takes me to task over the importance of hypocrisy. Where I’d agree with him is that I do think it’s important, as he says, for politicians to offer reasons for the things they do — reasons more public-oriented than simply doing it because they want to.
3. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Brooke Sutherland on GM and Trump’s trade war.
4. Alec MacGillis on Mitch McConnell’s legacy.
5. Jonathan Chait on Lawrence Kudlow and the federal budget deficit. The update at the bottom is the best part.
Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the author of this story:
Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Brooke Sample at bsample1@bloomberg.net
The administration’s missteps continue unabated. Plus, Jonathan Bernstein’s morning links.
By
637
July 3, 2018, 12:34 AM GMT+10
We’re not laughing, either. Photographer: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images
It’s hard to imagine a better quick story summing up the Donald Trump administration than the one that broke Sunday night about a bill the White House was preparing to, as Jonathan Swan at Axios put it, “declare America’s abandonment of fundamental World Trade Organization rules” by giving the president authority to unilaterally break those rules.
Let’s see …
The policy is nuts; virtually all experts, both in trade and in foreign policy, believe global trade is very good for the U.S.
In fact, according to Swan’s reporting, almost everyone in the White House thinks the bill “is unrealistic or unworkable.”
Why does it exist, then? Because Trump ordered it, and sometimes the best way to mollify a president is to give him what he wants — very slowly, and without anything actually happening. Apparently this thing has been kicking around for months.
The bill has virtually no chance whatsoever of being enacted into law.
The draft bill has a title, the United States Fair and Reciprocal Tariff Act, which yields an acronym that had every Twitter wag making fart jokes Sunday night.
On that last point, political scientist Brendan Nyhan made the crucial point: There are actually two perfectly plausible explanations. The ridiculous title could be just another sign of an administration that routinely botches basic tasks; after all, official White House communications have been plagued by typos ever since Trump took office, and just a few days ago a prankster claiming to be New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez managed to get a call through to the president. But it’s equally possible it was a malicious effort to undermine the policy by someone in the White House or an executive-branch agency; all administrations leak, but none before this have leaked so often with information that looked this bad for the president.
So to summarize: The president ordered something inept; he’s not going to get what he wanted; and everyone in the administration has egg on their faces over it.
What’s even more amazing about this is that Trump seems to be oblivious to all of it. For all we know, he really thinks that North Korea is giving up its nuclear weapons (it isn’t), the border wall is under construction (nope), and that he’s going to get his Space Force (seems extremely unlikely, even if Trump thinks wars against the Pentagon bureaucracy are good and easy to win).
He remains such a weak president that he has to select a Supreme Court nominee from a list supplied by an interest group. But he doesn’t appear to realize it — and he certainly isn’t demonstrating any ability to change the situation. Meanwhile, he’ll just keep ordering people to do things that (most of the time at least) will never happen, while the few competent people he’s somehow managed to put in place will continue to do things in his name whether he likes it or not. I could add a fart joke, but the whole thing really isn’t very funny.
1. Stephanie Carvin at the Monkey Cage on Trump and Canadian foreign policy.
2. Seth Masket takes me to task over the importance of hypocrisy. Where I’d agree with him is that I do think it’s important, as he says, for politicians to offer reasons for the things they do — reasons more public-oriented than simply doing it because they want to.
3. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Brooke Sutherland on GM and Trump’s trade war.
4. Alec MacGillis on Mitch McConnell’s legacy.
5. Jonathan Chait on Lawrence Kudlow and the federal budget deficit. The update at the bottom is the best part.
Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the author of this story:
Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Brooke Sample at bsample1@bloomberg.net
Cohen’s Next Phase, Manafort’s Trial Looms: Trump Legal Update - Bloomberg
Cohen’s Next Phase, Manafort’s Trial Looms: Trump Legal Update
Bloomberg News
July 2, 2018, 6:00 PM GMT+10
House Republicans (still) want to shut down the probe into Russian election meddling. President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort -- facing trial this month on fraud charges -- told a judge that government leaks to reporters were meant to bias jurors against him. And lawyers for Trump’s onetime fixer Michael Cohen, who’s being scrutinized in a separate criminal investigation, finished a review of seized evidence for records that they claim are protected by the attorney-client privilege.
These are just a few of the developments during the past week in the legal cases entangling the president. Here’s a recap of where things stand and what to watch in the coming week:
Cohen’s Next Phase
For a case involving an FBI investigation, a fixer for the future president and an adult film star, it was a quiet week for Cohen. The exception was a suggestive selfie of Cohen and actor Tom Arnold, who says he’s producing a TV series critical of Trump. The photo, posted to Twitter by Arnold, stirred speculation that Cohen was turning on Trump. Otherwise, developments in that probe were limited to courtroom procedures.
Federal agents are completing their review of millions of items seized by the FBI during an April raid of Cohen’s home, hotel room and office. Cohen’s lawyers said last week that they had completed their review. Cohen asked a retired judge appointed to oversee the process to withhold about 12,000 files from the government, saying they were covered by the attorney-client privilege.
The investigation is focused on Cohen’s business activities. He presumably learned a great deal about Trump’s dealings in the years he worked for the Trump Organization -- making it especially risky for the president if Cohen opts to cooperate with investigators. The company has until Thursday to complete its own review of the seized evidence.
Here are some of the most recent stories on Cohen’s travails:
Trump Organization Must End Cohen Document Review by July 5
Michael Cohen Lawyer Completed Review of Files Seized by FBI
Mueller Probe
Republican criticism of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election and possible collusion by the Trump campaign was intense last week, as the House approved a Republican-backed resolution demanding the Justice Department turn over all remaining documents sought by congressional committees related to the investigation. It was the latest attempt by Trump’s Republican allies to derail the probe, which they contend has been a political witch hunt from the beginning.
Representative Mark Meadows, a North Carolina Republican who co-sponsored the resolution, said on the House floor that “when we get these documents, we believe that it will do away with this whole fiasco of what they call the Russian collusion investigation because there wasn’t any!”
On Wednesday, FBI agent Peter Strzok, who has been accused of bias by Trump and his supporters, appeared for closed-door questioning before two House committees as part of their investigation “into decisions made by the Department of Justice in 2016” intended to undermine Mueller’s probe. Lawmakers who heard Strzok defend his actions later said he was grilled about his text messages to a former colleague, including one that said he’d “stop” Trump from becoming president.
The special counsel’s team has indicted 20 people and three Russian companies, secured five guilty pleas -- with several of Trump’s former associates also agreeing to cooperate with the probe.
Here are some of recent stories on Mueller’s investigation:
Russian Firm Tied to Putin’s Cook Attacks Mueller in Filing
Mueller Poised to Zero In on Trump-Russia Collusion Allegations
Mueller Seeks to Secure Troll Evidence From ‘Putin’s Chef’
Mueller Wins Key Victory as Manafort Judge Upholds Authority
Ex-Roger Stone Aide Fighting Mueller Subpoena, His Lawyer Says
Manafort Gives Mueller a Win
Paul ManafortPhotographer: Zach Gibson/Bloomberg
Manafort, Trump’s onetime campaign manager, will have the distinction later his month of being the first person to go on trial in a case stemming from Mueller’s investigation. Manafort’s attempt to have the case thrown out on the grounds that Mueller lacked authority instead gave the special counsel a key victory when a federal judge on June 26 ruled the tax- and bank-fraud charges had been filed properly.
The ruling cleared the way for Manafort to go to trial on July 25 in federal court in Alexandria, Virginia, where he’s accused of cheating banks and failing to pay taxes on income he earned as a political consultant for pro-Russian groups in Ukraine. Manafort, 69, faces a separate trial in Washington in September on charges of acting as an unregistered agent of Ukraine, laundering money and obstructing justice.
Mueller’s prosecutors acted properly because the crimes charged “clearly arise out of the special counsel’s investigation into the payments defendant allegedly received from Russian-backed leaders and pro-Russian political officials,” U.S. District Judge T.S. Ellis III wrote in the 31-page opinion.
The cases against Manafort relate to his business dealings before he joined Trump’s campaign, but some legal experts say Mueller may be trying to pressure him to cooperate in the larger probe.
Here are some of recent stories on Mueller’s investigation and a link to the Special Counsel site:
Reporters Gave Tip on Manafort Storage Unit, FBI Agent Says
Manafort Reported $10 Million Loan From Russian Oligarch in 2010
Manafort Appeals Dismissal of Suit Disputing Mueller’s Authority
Mueller Wins Key Victory as Manafort Judge Upholds Authority
The Porn Star v. the President
The most sensational case against Trump was brought by Stephanie Clifford, an adult-film actress who performs as Stormy Daniels. She says she had a tryst with Trump in 2006 and was threatened and manipulated to cover it up.
Stephanie Clifford and Michael AvenattiPhotographer: Wes Bruer/Bloomberg
Clifford last week challenged a request by Cohen to gag her lawyer, Michael Avenatti, from discussing the lawsuit against Trump and his longtime personal attorney, who paid her $130,000 in October 2016 to keep quiet about the alleged sexual encounter.
Cohen previously got a 90-day hold placed on the lawsuit to protect his right against self-incrimination in the criminal probe.
Avenatti has said he wants to question Trump under oath. The California lawyer has kept the scandal alive with television appearances and additional lawsuits questioning Cohen’s competence and ethics. And he’s using his spare time to pick another fight with Trump, this time on behalf of immigration whistle-blowers who he says reached out to him to expose the “truth” behind the government’s child-separation policy at the U.S.-Mexico border.
Here is a recent story:
Stormy Daniels Says Cohen’s Request for Gag Order Is Premature
Russian Trolls and Fake News
Less lurid (but no less compelling) is an indictment Mueller brought against 13 Russians and three entities including a Russia-based research operation -- a case that offers a glimpse of just how extensive the 2016 election meddling was.
The two sides are fighting over how much evidence prosecutors must disclose to a company led by Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is under indictment for financing the cyber activities. U.S. District Judge Dabney Friedrich in Washington said the government has made a good case to keep some of the evidence under wraps. Among the topics the government doesn’t want to disclose are cooperating witnesses who may be helping with the broader Russia investigation.
Russians spent a couple of years collecting intelligence on U.S. elections, then got directly engaged in the 2016 race, reaching out to unwitting Trump supporters to promote the candidate, according to Mueller. Meanwhile, programmers at the Saint Petersburg-based Internet Research Agency, which is allegedly bankrolled by Prigozhin, allegedly concocted social media accounts that seemingly represented groups aligned with actual movements, such as Black Lives Matter, to sow further disinformation to voters.
Separately, the Democratic National Committee sued Russia, the campaign, WikiLeaks and Trump’s associates claiming widespread election interference. Its case in Manhattan could force campaign staffers to answer questions under oath. A hearing is scheduled for Sept. 13.
Here are some of the most recent stories on the Russian hackers:
‘Putin’s Chef’ Judge Scolds Lawyers Over Evidence-Access Fight
Russian Firm Says Mueller Can’t Bar Access to Troll Evidence
Russia Keeps Meddling, Mueller Says in Bid to Guard Evidence
Defamation Claims and Possible Deposition
Summer Zervos, a former contestant on “The Apprentice,” claims Trump groped her in 2005. She sued the president for defamation after he labeled her, and other women who accused him of sexual misconduct, as liars.
Summer ZervosPhotographer: Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images
A New York judge rejected Trump’s claim that the Constitution bars the president from being dragged into court. “No one is above the law,” the judge wrote. Trump has lost several efforts to derail the suit, most recently on June 14, but he’s continuing to wage appeals. Meanwhile, trial preparations are under way and a schedule has been set for exchanging evidence and filing submissions. Zervos wants to depose Trump and seeks documents relating to similar claims by other women. The deadline for depositions is Jan. 31, but there hasn’t been a decision on whether Trump must face questioning.
Here’s the most recent story on the Zervos case:
Trump Keeps Failing to Derail Contestant’s Defamation Suit
Another NDA Fight
Clifford isn’t the only one seeking to void a nondisclosure agreement to air a tale about Trump: A Los-Angeles-based actress who worked as a manager on Trump’s 2016 campaign is pressing to keep her case public.
The actress, Jessica Denson, asked a New York judge on June 18 to deny the campaign’s request to force the case into arbitration. Denson, whose credits include the CBS crime drama “Person of Interest,” sued to nullify the agreement, saying it’s making it more difficult to pursue a separate lawsuit in which she claims she was harassed while she worked on Trump’s campaign.
Here’s the most recent coverage of Denson’s suit:
Trump Campaign Ex-Staffer Asks Judge to Keep NDA Suit Public
Tax Returns, Trump Foundation
Presidents have long disclosed their tax returns. Trump refused. But he may not have a choice.
Several lawsuits accuse Trump of violating the Constitution’s foreign emoluments clause by taking payments without Congress’s approval from foreign governments at his Washington hotel, golf courses and elsewhere, as well as the domestic clause that bars payments from federal or state governments.
Lawsuits by about 200 Democrats in Congress, and by attorneys general of Maryland and the District of Columbia, are pending. A third case, by an ethics-watchdog group and restaurant-industry competitors, is on appeal after a Manhattan federal judge tossed it out. The cases could force Trump to divest his holdings or put them in a blind trust. At a minimum, the plaintiffs will seek Trump’s tax returns.
The Maryland judge is to rule by late July whether to allow the lawsuit to go forward.
In another battle over the president’s holdings, New York state sued to dissolve Trump’s charitable foundation, claiming it persistently broke state and federal laws through improper political activity, self-dealing and failing to follow basic fiduciary obligations. In response, Trump tweeted that “sleazy New York Democrats” are attacking a charity that “gave out more money than it took in.” Barbara Underwood, the state’s attorney general, has also referred the findings to the Federal Election Commission and Internal Revenue Service.
Here are the most recent stories on challenges to Trump’s business and charity:
Trump Used Charity as His Checkbook, N.Y. Says as It Flags IRS
Trump, Democrats Clash in D.C. Court Over President’s Empire
The Case Files:
The Flynn case is U.S. v. Flynn, 17-cr-232, U.S. District Court, District of Columbia (Washington).
The Cohen case is In the Matter of Search Warrants Executed on April 9, 2018, 18-mj-3161, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).
The Manafort cases are U.S. v. Manafort, 17-cr-201, U.S. District Court, District of Columbia (Washington), and 18-cr-83, U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Virginia (Alexandria).
The Clifford cases are Clifford v. Trump, 18-cv-2217, U.S. District Court, Central District of California (Los Angeles); Clifford v. Trump, 18-cv-3842, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan); and Clifford v. Davidson, 18-cv-5052, U.S. District Court, Central District of California (Los Angeles).
The Denson case: Denson v. Trump, 18-cv-2690, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).
The hacking indictment is U.S. v. Concord Management, 18-cr-00032, U.S. District Court, District of Columbia (Washington). The DNC case is Democratic National Committee v. the Russian Federation, 18-cv-3501, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).
The Apprentice case is Zervos v. Trump, 150522/2017, New York Supreme Court, New York County.
The emoluments cases are Blumenthal v. Trump, 17-cv-1154, U.S. District Court, District of Columbia (Washington); District of Columbia v. Trump, 17-cv-1596, U.S. District Court, District of Maryland (Greenbelt); Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington v. Trump, 17-cv-00458, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).
The Trump Foundation case is People of the State of New York v. Trump, 451130/2018, New York Supreme Court, New York County.
— With assistance by Erik Larson
Bloomberg News
July 2, 2018, 6:00 PM GMT+10
House Republicans (still) want to shut down the probe into Russian election meddling. President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort -- facing trial this month on fraud charges -- told a judge that government leaks to reporters were meant to bias jurors against him. And lawyers for Trump’s onetime fixer Michael Cohen, who’s being scrutinized in a separate criminal investigation, finished a review of seized evidence for records that they claim are protected by the attorney-client privilege.
These are just a few of the developments during the past week in the legal cases entangling the president. Here’s a recap of where things stand and what to watch in the coming week:
Cohen’s Next Phase
For a case involving an FBI investigation, a fixer for the future president and an adult film star, it was a quiet week for Cohen. The exception was a suggestive selfie of Cohen and actor Tom Arnold, who says he’s producing a TV series critical of Trump. The photo, posted to Twitter by Arnold, stirred speculation that Cohen was turning on Trump. Otherwise, developments in that probe were limited to courtroom procedures.
Federal agents are completing their review of millions of items seized by the FBI during an April raid of Cohen’s home, hotel room and office. Cohen’s lawyers said last week that they had completed their review. Cohen asked a retired judge appointed to oversee the process to withhold about 12,000 files from the government, saying they were covered by the attorney-client privilege.
The investigation is focused on Cohen’s business activities. He presumably learned a great deal about Trump’s dealings in the years he worked for the Trump Organization -- making it especially risky for the president if Cohen opts to cooperate with investigators. The company has until Thursday to complete its own review of the seized evidence.
Here are some of the most recent stories on Cohen’s travails:
Trump Organization Must End Cohen Document Review by July 5
Michael Cohen Lawyer Completed Review of Files Seized by FBI
Mueller Probe
Republican criticism of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election and possible collusion by the Trump campaign was intense last week, as the House approved a Republican-backed resolution demanding the Justice Department turn over all remaining documents sought by congressional committees related to the investigation. It was the latest attempt by Trump’s Republican allies to derail the probe, which they contend has been a political witch hunt from the beginning.
Representative Mark Meadows, a North Carolina Republican who co-sponsored the resolution, said on the House floor that “when we get these documents, we believe that it will do away with this whole fiasco of what they call the Russian collusion investigation because there wasn’t any!”
On Wednesday, FBI agent Peter Strzok, who has been accused of bias by Trump and his supporters, appeared for closed-door questioning before two House committees as part of their investigation “into decisions made by the Department of Justice in 2016” intended to undermine Mueller’s probe. Lawmakers who heard Strzok defend his actions later said he was grilled about his text messages to a former colleague, including one that said he’d “stop” Trump from becoming president.
The special counsel’s team has indicted 20 people and three Russian companies, secured five guilty pleas -- with several of Trump’s former associates also agreeing to cooperate with the probe.
Here are some of recent stories on Mueller’s investigation:
Russian Firm Tied to Putin’s Cook Attacks Mueller in Filing
Mueller Poised to Zero In on Trump-Russia Collusion Allegations
Mueller Seeks to Secure Troll Evidence From ‘Putin’s Chef’
Mueller Wins Key Victory as Manafort Judge Upholds Authority
Ex-Roger Stone Aide Fighting Mueller Subpoena, His Lawyer Says
Manafort Gives Mueller a Win
Paul ManafortPhotographer: Zach Gibson/Bloomberg
Manafort, Trump’s onetime campaign manager, will have the distinction later his month of being the first person to go on trial in a case stemming from Mueller’s investigation. Manafort’s attempt to have the case thrown out on the grounds that Mueller lacked authority instead gave the special counsel a key victory when a federal judge on June 26 ruled the tax- and bank-fraud charges had been filed properly.
The ruling cleared the way for Manafort to go to trial on July 25 in federal court in Alexandria, Virginia, where he’s accused of cheating banks and failing to pay taxes on income he earned as a political consultant for pro-Russian groups in Ukraine. Manafort, 69, faces a separate trial in Washington in September on charges of acting as an unregistered agent of Ukraine, laundering money and obstructing justice.
Mueller’s prosecutors acted properly because the crimes charged “clearly arise out of the special counsel’s investigation into the payments defendant allegedly received from Russian-backed leaders and pro-Russian political officials,” U.S. District Judge T.S. Ellis III wrote in the 31-page opinion.
The cases against Manafort relate to his business dealings before he joined Trump’s campaign, but some legal experts say Mueller may be trying to pressure him to cooperate in the larger probe.
Here are some of recent stories on Mueller’s investigation and a link to the Special Counsel site:
Reporters Gave Tip on Manafort Storage Unit, FBI Agent Says
Manafort Reported $10 Million Loan From Russian Oligarch in 2010
Manafort Appeals Dismissal of Suit Disputing Mueller’s Authority
Mueller Wins Key Victory as Manafort Judge Upholds Authority
The Porn Star v. the President
The most sensational case against Trump was brought by Stephanie Clifford, an adult-film actress who performs as Stormy Daniels. She says she had a tryst with Trump in 2006 and was threatened and manipulated to cover it up.
Stephanie Clifford and Michael AvenattiPhotographer: Wes Bruer/Bloomberg
Clifford last week challenged a request by Cohen to gag her lawyer, Michael Avenatti, from discussing the lawsuit against Trump and his longtime personal attorney, who paid her $130,000 in October 2016 to keep quiet about the alleged sexual encounter.
Cohen previously got a 90-day hold placed on the lawsuit to protect his right against self-incrimination in the criminal probe.
Avenatti has said he wants to question Trump under oath. The California lawyer has kept the scandal alive with television appearances and additional lawsuits questioning Cohen’s competence and ethics. And he’s using his spare time to pick another fight with Trump, this time on behalf of immigration whistle-blowers who he says reached out to him to expose the “truth” behind the government’s child-separation policy at the U.S.-Mexico border.
Here is a recent story:
Stormy Daniels Says Cohen’s Request for Gag Order Is Premature
Russian Trolls and Fake News
Less lurid (but no less compelling) is an indictment Mueller brought against 13 Russians and three entities including a Russia-based research operation -- a case that offers a glimpse of just how extensive the 2016 election meddling was.
The two sides are fighting over how much evidence prosecutors must disclose to a company led by Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is under indictment for financing the cyber activities. U.S. District Judge Dabney Friedrich in Washington said the government has made a good case to keep some of the evidence under wraps. Among the topics the government doesn’t want to disclose are cooperating witnesses who may be helping with the broader Russia investigation.
Russians spent a couple of years collecting intelligence on U.S. elections, then got directly engaged in the 2016 race, reaching out to unwitting Trump supporters to promote the candidate, according to Mueller. Meanwhile, programmers at the Saint Petersburg-based Internet Research Agency, which is allegedly bankrolled by Prigozhin, allegedly concocted social media accounts that seemingly represented groups aligned with actual movements, such as Black Lives Matter, to sow further disinformation to voters.
Separately, the Democratic National Committee sued Russia, the campaign, WikiLeaks and Trump’s associates claiming widespread election interference. Its case in Manhattan could force campaign staffers to answer questions under oath. A hearing is scheduled for Sept. 13.
Here are some of the most recent stories on the Russian hackers:
‘Putin’s Chef’ Judge Scolds Lawyers Over Evidence-Access Fight
Russian Firm Says Mueller Can’t Bar Access to Troll Evidence
Russia Keeps Meddling, Mueller Says in Bid to Guard Evidence
Defamation Claims and Possible Deposition
Summer Zervos, a former contestant on “The Apprentice,” claims Trump groped her in 2005. She sued the president for defamation after he labeled her, and other women who accused him of sexual misconduct, as liars.
Summer ZervosPhotographer: Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images
A New York judge rejected Trump’s claim that the Constitution bars the president from being dragged into court. “No one is above the law,” the judge wrote. Trump has lost several efforts to derail the suit, most recently on June 14, but he’s continuing to wage appeals. Meanwhile, trial preparations are under way and a schedule has been set for exchanging evidence and filing submissions. Zervos wants to depose Trump and seeks documents relating to similar claims by other women. The deadline for depositions is Jan. 31, but there hasn’t been a decision on whether Trump must face questioning.
Here’s the most recent story on the Zervos case:
Trump Keeps Failing to Derail Contestant’s Defamation Suit
Another NDA Fight
Clifford isn’t the only one seeking to void a nondisclosure agreement to air a tale about Trump: A Los-Angeles-based actress who worked as a manager on Trump’s 2016 campaign is pressing to keep her case public.
The actress, Jessica Denson, asked a New York judge on June 18 to deny the campaign’s request to force the case into arbitration. Denson, whose credits include the CBS crime drama “Person of Interest,” sued to nullify the agreement, saying it’s making it more difficult to pursue a separate lawsuit in which she claims she was harassed while she worked on Trump’s campaign.
Here’s the most recent coverage of Denson’s suit:
Trump Campaign Ex-Staffer Asks Judge to Keep NDA Suit Public
Tax Returns, Trump Foundation
Presidents have long disclosed their tax returns. Trump refused. But he may not have a choice.
Several lawsuits accuse Trump of violating the Constitution’s foreign emoluments clause by taking payments without Congress’s approval from foreign governments at his Washington hotel, golf courses and elsewhere, as well as the domestic clause that bars payments from federal or state governments.
Lawsuits by about 200 Democrats in Congress, and by attorneys general of Maryland and the District of Columbia, are pending. A third case, by an ethics-watchdog group and restaurant-industry competitors, is on appeal after a Manhattan federal judge tossed it out. The cases could force Trump to divest his holdings or put them in a blind trust. At a minimum, the plaintiffs will seek Trump’s tax returns.
The Maryland judge is to rule by late July whether to allow the lawsuit to go forward.
In another battle over the president’s holdings, New York state sued to dissolve Trump’s charitable foundation, claiming it persistently broke state and federal laws through improper political activity, self-dealing and failing to follow basic fiduciary obligations. In response, Trump tweeted that “sleazy New York Democrats” are attacking a charity that “gave out more money than it took in.” Barbara Underwood, the state’s attorney general, has also referred the findings to the Federal Election Commission and Internal Revenue Service.
Here are the most recent stories on challenges to Trump’s business and charity:
Trump Used Charity as His Checkbook, N.Y. Says as It Flags IRS
Trump, Democrats Clash in D.C. Court Over President’s Empire
The Case Files:
The Flynn case is U.S. v. Flynn, 17-cr-232, U.S. District Court, District of Columbia (Washington).
The Cohen case is In the Matter of Search Warrants Executed on April 9, 2018, 18-mj-3161, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).
The Manafort cases are U.S. v. Manafort, 17-cr-201, U.S. District Court, District of Columbia (Washington), and 18-cr-83, U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Virginia (Alexandria).
The Clifford cases are Clifford v. Trump, 18-cv-2217, U.S. District Court, Central District of California (Los Angeles); Clifford v. Trump, 18-cv-3842, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan); and Clifford v. Davidson, 18-cv-5052, U.S. District Court, Central District of California (Los Angeles).
The Denson case: Denson v. Trump, 18-cv-2690, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).
The hacking indictment is U.S. v. Concord Management, 18-cr-00032, U.S. District Court, District of Columbia (Washington). The DNC case is Democratic National Committee v. the Russian Federation, 18-cv-3501, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).
The Apprentice case is Zervos v. Trump, 150522/2017, New York Supreme Court, New York County.
The emoluments cases are Blumenthal v. Trump, 17-cv-1154, U.S. District Court, District of Columbia (Washington); District of Columbia v. Trump, 17-cv-1596, U.S. District Court, District of Maryland (Greenbelt); Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington v. Trump, 17-cv-00458, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).
The Trump Foundation case is People of the State of New York v. Trump, 451130/2018, New York Supreme Court, New York County.
— With assistance by Erik Larson
Thailand cave rescue: How can rescuers free the boys? - BBC News
July 3, 2018
Thailand cave rescue: How can rescuers free the boys?
By Toby Luckhurst
BBC News
After nine days, the group of boys and their coach have finally been found
After nine days trapped in darkness in a cave in Thailand, 12 boys and their football coach have been found alive.
Two British divers found all 13 safe in a cavern in the Tham Luang cave system in the northern Chiang Rai province.
But the issue now is to get them all out of the cave with rising waters and mud hindering access and the trapped group's health a major concern.
The army says the group might have to wait in the cave for up to four months for floods to recede.
So what are the options to free the youngsters and their coach?
Finding the Thai cave boys and getting them out
Missing Thai boys found alive in caves
What to do to survive underground
Diving
"The option to bring them out by diving is the quickest but it's also the most dangerous," Anmar Mirza, national co-ordinator of the US Cave Rescue Commission, told the BBC.
Thai navy divers, three top British cave divers and US military personnel all attempted to find the boys.
In total, more than 1,000 people have been involved in the operation, including teams from China, Myanmar, Laos and Australia.
Oxygen tanks were prepared for divers outside the cave complex
These skilled professional divers still needed several hours to get to the trapped group from the entrance, through tiny, debris-strewn passages and aided by round-the-clock water pumping efforts to try to clear the flood waters. And these boys are not trained divers.
Edd Sorenson, regional co-ordinator in Florida for the International Underwater Cave Rescue and Recovery Organisation, told the BBC the diving option is "extremely dangerous and hazardous", saying he would consider it "an absolute last resort".
"Having somebody in zero visibility that's not familiar with... that kind of extreme conditions, it's real easy and very likely that they would panic, and either kill themselves and/ or the rescuers."
Drilling
Authorities have tried to drill holes in the cave walls to help drain some of the flood water - although the thick rock has hampered efforts.
There have also been suggestions that drilling could be another way to get to the boys, and to help them out.
But to even begin the process, new roads would need to be built up above the caves to accommodate the heavy drilling equipment needed to break through the rock.
Image copyrightEPA
Image caption
Authorities have tried to drill holes to let out flood waters
On top of that, Mr Mirza explains you would need to have conducted a survey of the caves and to know them back to front before you could start drilling - otherwise there would be little chance of digging a hole in the correct place for the boys and their coach.
"It sounds easy but it's actually very difficult," he says. "It's a needle in a haystack problem."
Resupply?
In a press conference, Chiang Rai governor Narongsak Osottanakorn said they would continue to drain water out of the cave while sending doctors and nurses in to check the health of the boys and their coach.
"If the doctors say their physical condition is strong enough to be moved, they will take them out from the cave," he said.
But Mr Mirza says their health is a serious concern. "After nine days without food, you have to watch their food intake," he says.
Authorities have set up a temporary hospital near the cave entrance in preparation to handle the trapped team
People deprived of food can suffer ill-health effects if not properly reintroduced to food - sometimes as severe as heart failure or comas.
Mr Mirza says if the group are on high ground, safe from flooding, and can be resupplied there that might be a good option for now. Their ill-health "significantly compromises the rescue effort," he says.
Mr Sorenson agrees. "I think they would be better off bringing in food, water, filtration systems, oxygen if the air space needs it and requires it", he says.
"They have lights and hope now, so I think waiting it out, as long as they can get supplies in there to make them comfortable and warm and fed and hydrated."
Thailand cave rescue: How can rescuers free the boys?
By Toby Luckhurst
BBC News
After nine days, the group of boys and their coach have finally been found
After nine days trapped in darkness in a cave in Thailand, 12 boys and their football coach have been found alive.
Two British divers found all 13 safe in a cavern in the Tham Luang cave system in the northern Chiang Rai province.
But the issue now is to get them all out of the cave with rising waters and mud hindering access and the trapped group's health a major concern.
The army says the group might have to wait in the cave for up to four months for floods to recede.
So what are the options to free the youngsters and their coach?
Finding the Thai cave boys and getting them out
Missing Thai boys found alive in caves
What to do to survive underground
Diving
"The option to bring them out by diving is the quickest but it's also the most dangerous," Anmar Mirza, national co-ordinator of the US Cave Rescue Commission, told the BBC.
Thai navy divers, three top British cave divers and US military personnel all attempted to find the boys.
In total, more than 1,000 people have been involved in the operation, including teams from China, Myanmar, Laos and Australia.
Oxygen tanks were prepared for divers outside the cave complex
These skilled professional divers still needed several hours to get to the trapped group from the entrance, through tiny, debris-strewn passages and aided by round-the-clock water pumping efforts to try to clear the flood waters. And these boys are not trained divers.
Edd Sorenson, regional co-ordinator in Florida for the International Underwater Cave Rescue and Recovery Organisation, told the BBC the diving option is "extremely dangerous and hazardous", saying he would consider it "an absolute last resort".
"Having somebody in zero visibility that's not familiar with... that kind of extreme conditions, it's real easy and very likely that they would panic, and either kill themselves and/ or the rescuers."
Drilling
Authorities have tried to drill holes in the cave walls to help drain some of the flood water - although the thick rock has hampered efforts.
There have also been suggestions that drilling could be another way to get to the boys, and to help them out.
But to even begin the process, new roads would need to be built up above the caves to accommodate the heavy drilling equipment needed to break through the rock.
Image copyrightEPA
Image caption
Authorities have tried to drill holes to let out flood waters
On top of that, Mr Mirza explains you would need to have conducted a survey of the caves and to know them back to front before you could start drilling - otherwise there would be little chance of digging a hole in the correct place for the boys and their coach.
"It sounds easy but it's actually very difficult," he says. "It's a needle in a haystack problem."
Resupply?
In a press conference, Chiang Rai governor Narongsak Osottanakorn said they would continue to drain water out of the cave while sending doctors and nurses in to check the health of the boys and their coach.
"If the doctors say their physical condition is strong enough to be moved, they will take them out from the cave," he said.
But Mr Mirza says their health is a serious concern. "After nine days without food, you have to watch their food intake," he says.
Authorities have set up a temporary hospital near the cave entrance in preparation to handle the trapped team
People deprived of food can suffer ill-health effects if not properly reintroduced to food - sometimes as severe as heart failure or comas.
Mr Mirza says if the group are on high ground, safe from flooding, and can be resupplied there that might be a good option for now. Their ill-health "significantly compromises the rescue effort," he says.
Mr Sorenson agrees. "I think they would be better off bringing in food, water, filtration systems, oxygen if the air space needs it and requires it", he says.
"They have lights and hope now, so I think waiting it out, as long as they can get supplies in there to make them comfortable and warm and fed and hydrated."
Thailand cave rescue: Boys 'could be in cave for months' - BBC News
July 3, 2018
Thailand cave rescue: Boys 'could be in cave for months'
Finding the Thai cave boys and getting them out
Twelve boys and their football coach trapped in a Thai cave are alive, but will need to learn to dive or wait months for flooding to recede before they can get out, the army says.
The group had been missing for nine days before they were found by divers late on Monday on a small dry ledge.
Rescuers are now battling rising water to bring more supplies to the group.
They may need to have food sent in for at least the next four months, according to the military.
Attempts were being made to install power and telephone lines inside the cave to let the boys speak with their parents, Chiang Rai Governor Narongsak Osotthanakon said.
How were they found?
Two British rescuer divers who had flown over to join the search operation found the boys on Monday night.
The video of that first contact was posted on Facebook by Thai Navy SEAL special forces.
The boys are seen by torchlight sitting on a ledge above water, responding to the divers that all 13 were there and that they were very hungry.
Thailand rejoices as boys found
The Brits who found the group alive
The hours after the boys were found
Media captionBill Whitehouse of the British Cave Rescue Council has been in touch with the divers
They ask how long they have been underground and whether they can leave now. The divers tell them they have to wait, but say people will come back for them.
One boy replies: "Oh. See you tomorrow."
The search for the group had gripped the nation as it was unclear where they were or whether they even were still alive.
Families of the missing group were ecstatic at news of the rescue.
How did they get there?
The boys, aged between 11 and 16, and their 25-year-old coach went missing on 23 June. It's believed they entered the cave when it was dry and sudden heavy rains blocked the exit.
They were found on a rock shelf around 4km (2.5 miles) from the mouth of the cave.
It is thought the boys could move through parts of the cave in dry conditions but rushing waters clogged the narrow passages with mud and debris, blocking visibility and access.
One of the toughest stretches for the divers came as they neared so-called Pattaya Beach - an elevated mound in the cave complex - where it was hoped the boys had sought refuge.
Divers had to navigate a series of sharp, narrow bends in near-darkness. They completed the difficult journey to find Pattaya Beach flooded, so swam on and found the boys about 400m away.
How can they get out?
Bringing the trapped boys to safety is an extremely dangerous task given the conditions inside.
The Tham Luang cave complex in Chiang Rai in northern Thailand is regularly flooded during the rainy season which lasts until September or October.
A Facebook photo shows the coach with some of the missing children
If the children are to be brought out before then, they will have to learn basic diving skills.
But experts have cautioned that taking inexperienced divers through the dangerous corridors of muddy, zero-visibility waters would be very risky.
Attempts to pump the water levels lower have so far not been successful.
If they are to wait until the water recedes by itself, it would mean the boys will have to stay in the cave for months and have to be continuously supplied with food and assistance.
Specially trained doctors will go in to carry out medical checks in the coming days to establish their condition and treat possible injuries.
BBC South East Asia correspondent Jonathan Head, who is at the scene, said the Thai military has a few doctors with the diving skills required to reach them.
"But even when they recover their strength, pulling them back through miles of partly flooded tunnels will be a daunting challenge. And the rainy season has just started here - water levels will rise," he said.
Other teams are still scouring the mountainside in the hope of finding another way in to the cave.
Who are they?
The 12 boys are all members of a local football team and their coach is known to have taken them on occasional excursions and field trips.
Tinnakorn Boonpiem, whose 12-year-old son Mongkol is among the 13, told AFP news agency near the caves she was "so glad" to hear they were safe.
"I want him to be physically and mentally fit," she said.
"I'm so happy I can't put it into words," another relative of one of the group told reporters as tears of joy streamed down his cheeks.
Thailand cave rescue: Boys 'could be in cave for months'
Finding the Thai cave boys and getting them out
Twelve boys and their football coach trapped in a Thai cave are alive, but will need to learn to dive or wait months for flooding to recede before they can get out, the army says.
The group had been missing for nine days before they were found by divers late on Monday on a small dry ledge.
Rescuers are now battling rising water to bring more supplies to the group.
They may need to have food sent in for at least the next four months, according to the military.
Attempts were being made to install power and telephone lines inside the cave to let the boys speak with their parents, Chiang Rai Governor Narongsak Osotthanakon said.
How were they found?
Two British rescuer divers who had flown over to join the search operation found the boys on Monday night.
The video of that first contact was posted on Facebook by Thai Navy SEAL special forces.
The boys are seen by torchlight sitting on a ledge above water, responding to the divers that all 13 were there and that they were very hungry.
Thailand rejoices as boys found
The Brits who found the group alive
The hours after the boys were found
Media captionBill Whitehouse of the British Cave Rescue Council has been in touch with the divers
They ask how long they have been underground and whether they can leave now. The divers tell them they have to wait, but say people will come back for them.
One boy replies: "Oh. See you tomorrow."
The search for the group had gripped the nation as it was unclear where they were or whether they even were still alive.
Families of the missing group were ecstatic at news of the rescue.
How did they get there?
The boys, aged between 11 and 16, and their 25-year-old coach went missing on 23 June. It's believed they entered the cave when it was dry and sudden heavy rains blocked the exit.
They were found on a rock shelf around 4km (2.5 miles) from the mouth of the cave.
It is thought the boys could move through parts of the cave in dry conditions but rushing waters clogged the narrow passages with mud and debris, blocking visibility and access.
One of the toughest stretches for the divers came as they neared so-called Pattaya Beach - an elevated mound in the cave complex - where it was hoped the boys had sought refuge.
Divers had to navigate a series of sharp, narrow bends in near-darkness. They completed the difficult journey to find Pattaya Beach flooded, so swam on and found the boys about 400m away.
How can they get out?
Bringing the trapped boys to safety is an extremely dangerous task given the conditions inside.
The Tham Luang cave complex in Chiang Rai in northern Thailand is regularly flooded during the rainy season which lasts until September or October.
A Facebook photo shows the coach with some of the missing children
If the children are to be brought out before then, they will have to learn basic diving skills.
But experts have cautioned that taking inexperienced divers through the dangerous corridors of muddy, zero-visibility waters would be very risky.
Attempts to pump the water levels lower have so far not been successful.
If they are to wait until the water recedes by itself, it would mean the boys will have to stay in the cave for months and have to be continuously supplied with food and assistance.
Specially trained doctors will go in to carry out medical checks in the coming days to establish their condition and treat possible injuries.
BBC South East Asia correspondent Jonathan Head, who is at the scene, said the Thai military has a few doctors with the diving skills required to reach them.
"But even when they recover their strength, pulling them back through miles of partly flooded tunnels will be a daunting challenge. And the rainy season has just started here - water levels will rise," he said.
Other teams are still scouring the mountainside in the hope of finding another way in to the cave.
Who are they?
The 12 boys are all members of a local football team and their coach is known to have taken them on occasional excursions and field trips.
Tinnakorn Boonpiem, whose 12-year-old son Mongkol is among the 13, told AFP news agency near the caves she was "so glad" to hear they were safe.
"I want him to be physically and mentally fit," she said.
"I'm so happy I can't put it into words," another relative of one of the group told reporters as tears of joy streamed down his cheeks.
Trump administration seeks to block China Mobile in the US - BBC News
July 3, 2018
Trump administration seeks to block China Mobile in the US
State-owned China Mobile is the world's biggest mobile phone operator. It is listed in Hong Kong and New York
The Trump administration has said it does not want one of the world's biggest phone carriers, China Mobile, to provide telecom services within the US, citing national security concerns.
State-owned China Mobile applied to the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for a licence to do so in 2011.
But the US Department of Commerce has recommended the licence request be denied.
The advice comes amid rising trade tensions between the US and China.
"After significant engagement with China Mobile, concerns about increased risks to US law enforcement and national security interests were unable to be resolved," said the assistant secretary for communications and information at the Commerce Department, David J Redl.
"Therefore, the executive branch of the US government, through the National Telecommunications and Information Administration [NTIA]... recommends that the FCC deny China Mobile's Section 214 license request."
Neither China Mobile nor the FCC were immediately available for comment on what their next steps would be.
The move by the NTIA - an arm of the Commerce Department that advises US President Donald Trump on telco and information issues - comes at a time of heightened tensions between the US and China over trade and telecom issues.
In April, the Commerce Department found that the Chinese state-owned technology giant ZTE had violated trade bans with North Korea and Iran.
ZTE is based in Shenzhen and is a Chinese state-owned technology giant
A ban was placed on the firm that prevented it from buying parts from US suppliers - a move that forced Shenzhen-based ZTE to suspend major operations, and threatened to destroy its business.
However, following some pressure from Beijing, the US struck a deal with ZTE that would involve the firm paying a $1bn penalty, hiring a compliance team chosen by the US, and replacing much of its management board, among other measures.
US reaches deal with China's ZTE
China's ZTE 'poses risk to UK security'
In return, the US said it would remove the ban - a negotiation that has been linked to wider trade tensions between the US and China.
ZTE has fulfilled many of these requirements, however, a group of bipartisan senators, including US Senator for Florida Marco Rubio, is currently attempting to maintain the ban on the firm via an amendment to a defense bill.
Reacting to research by The Wall Street Journal that has shown ZTE's management overhaul may not be as dramatic as first thought, Mr Rubio last week questioned why the Trump administration was continuing negotiations with the Chinese firm.
A group of bipartisan US senators including Republican Marco Rubio are attempting maintain the ban on ZTE
Meanwhile, on Friday, as part of the ongoing trade spat between the US and China, the two giants are expected to introduce further tariffs on each other's goods.
The Trump administration is expected to bring into effect the first tranche of 25% tariffs on $34bn of Chinese goods.
And in retaliation, China is expected to enact its first round of tariffs on $34bn worth of US products.
Trump administration seeks to block China Mobile in the US
State-owned China Mobile is the world's biggest mobile phone operator. It is listed in Hong Kong and New York
The Trump administration has said it does not want one of the world's biggest phone carriers, China Mobile, to provide telecom services within the US, citing national security concerns.
State-owned China Mobile applied to the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for a licence to do so in 2011.
But the US Department of Commerce has recommended the licence request be denied.
The advice comes amid rising trade tensions between the US and China.
"After significant engagement with China Mobile, concerns about increased risks to US law enforcement and national security interests were unable to be resolved," said the assistant secretary for communications and information at the Commerce Department, David J Redl.
"Therefore, the executive branch of the US government, through the National Telecommunications and Information Administration [NTIA]... recommends that the FCC deny China Mobile's Section 214 license request."
Neither China Mobile nor the FCC were immediately available for comment on what their next steps would be.
The move by the NTIA - an arm of the Commerce Department that advises US President Donald Trump on telco and information issues - comes at a time of heightened tensions between the US and China over trade and telecom issues.
In April, the Commerce Department found that the Chinese state-owned technology giant ZTE had violated trade bans with North Korea and Iran.
ZTE is based in Shenzhen and is a Chinese state-owned technology giant
A ban was placed on the firm that prevented it from buying parts from US suppliers - a move that forced Shenzhen-based ZTE to suspend major operations, and threatened to destroy its business.
However, following some pressure from Beijing, the US struck a deal with ZTE that would involve the firm paying a $1bn penalty, hiring a compliance team chosen by the US, and replacing much of its management board, among other measures.
US reaches deal with China's ZTE
China's ZTE 'poses risk to UK security'
In return, the US said it would remove the ban - a negotiation that has been linked to wider trade tensions between the US and China.
ZTE has fulfilled many of these requirements, however, a group of bipartisan senators, including US Senator for Florida Marco Rubio, is currently attempting to maintain the ban on the firm via an amendment to a defense bill.
Reacting to research by The Wall Street Journal that has shown ZTE's management overhaul may not be as dramatic as first thought, Mr Rubio last week questioned why the Trump administration was continuing negotiations with the Chinese firm.
A group of bipartisan US senators including Republican Marco Rubio are attempting maintain the ban on ZTE
Meanwhile, on Friday, as part of the ongoing trade spat between the US and China, the two giants are expected to introduce further tariffs on each other's goods.
The Trump administration is expected to bring into effect the first tranche of 25% tariffs on $34bn of Chinese goods.
And in retaliation, China is expected to enact its first round of tariffs on $34bn worth of US products.
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