July 13, 2018, 5:27 PM
Intel chief Dan Coats says of cyberattacks, "We are at a critical point"
Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats warned of an impending, potentially devastating cyberattack on U.S. systems, saying the country's digital infrastructure "is literally under attack" and warning that among state actors, Russia is the "worst offender."
Speaking at a scheduled event at the Hudson Institute, he adopted the language of former Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet who, in the months ahead of the 9/11 attacks, warned that the "system was blinking red." Coats, citing daily attacks from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, said, "Here we are, nearly two decades later, and I'm here to say the warning lights are blinking red again."
He said the aggressors' targets were diverse, and included businesses, federal, state and local governments, the U.S. military, academic and financial institutions, and critical infrastructure. The FBI and Department of Homeland Security had already detected Russian government actors exploring vulnerabilities in energy, nuclear, water, aviation and manufacturing sectors, he warned.
Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats YURI GRIPAS / REUTERS
"All of these disparate efforts share a common purpose," he observed, "to exploit America's openness in order to undermine our long-term competitive advantage."
Coats also said there was "no question" that Russia was the "most aggressive foreign actor," and its efforts to undermine American democracy are ongoing, even if they appear to have abated from 2016 levels.
"We are not yet seeing the kind of electoral interference in specific states and in voter databases that we experienced," he said. "However, we realize we are just one click of the keyboard away from a similar situation repeating itself." Russian attempts to stoke social and political tensions on social media platforms, Coats said, were still "aggressive," with new fake accounts continually being created by the Internet Research Agency. Special counsel Robert Mueller indicted the IRA, along with thirteen Russian nationals it employed, in February.
"These actions are persistent, they're pervasive and they are meant to undermine America's democracy on a daily basis, regardless of whether it is election time or not," Coats said. "The warning signs are there. The system is blinking. And it is why I believe we are at a critical point."
As part of an ongoing restructuring process called "Intelligence Community 2025," Coats said, the 17 agencies of the intelligence community would make their own efforts to boost transparency and information-sharing, including by working to eliminate what he called "information silos" between the public and private sector. He also urged all consumers of information to be vigilant about its provenance.
"We need the American people to verify the credibility of the sources of information upon which they base their decisions," he said. "Whether those sources are social media reports, cable news or newspapers, it is essential that we all apply critical thinking to all sources of information."
Coats' stark warning was issued on the same day the Department of Justice announced an 11-count indictment against 12 Russian intelligence officers accused of hacking the Democratic National Committee and Clinton campaign – and just three days before President Trump is scheduled to hold a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Despite an outpouring of admonishments from Republican and Democratic lawmakers, who said the meeting should be cancelled in light of the DOJ's most recent indictments, the White House said it would proceed.
For its part, hours before the Mueller indictment was issued, the Kremlin again denied ever attempting to meddle. "The Russian state has never interfered and has no intention of interfering in the U.S. elections," said Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov.
Coats, asked by moderator Walter Russel Mead what message he would offer the Russian president, said, "My message would be, 'We know what you're doing," he said. "President Putin, the decisions are up to you...we know what you do and so you make the choice. But if you want to stay in this tit-for-tat, we're going to beat you."
Sunday, July 15, 2018
Bond markets signal early end to Fed rate rises - Financial Times
July 14, 2018
Bond markets signal early end to Fed rate rises
While the central bank hails strength of US economy, traders are not so sure
Fed chair Jay Powell
Joe Rennison in New York
Bond traders are anticipating that an end to the Federal Reserve’s cycle of monetary policy tightening could come as early as next year, facing down policymakers that expect to raise interest rates for longer.
While the Fed expects to raise rates into next year and potentially the year after — a point that could be reiterated by chair Jay Powell when he gives testimony this week to Congress — current prices in US interest rate markets suggest that the central bank will stop its hiking cycle sooner.
According to the median prediction by policymakers, the Fed policy rate will rise to 3.375 per cent in 2020. In contrast, eurodollar futures suggest rates may plateau in 2019.
The differences come as despite strong corporate earnings growth and positive economic data, investors are factoring in the risk of a slowdown in the economy.
“The markets are telling us that there is a pretty high risk of economic slowdown or recession at the end of 2019,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Capital Management.
The yield on futures expiring in December 2019 stood at 2.97 per cent on Friday, and on futures expiring in March 2020 it was an almost identical 2.975 per cent. The yield falls to 2.96 per cent for December 2020 eurodollar futures.
“The market is saying that the Fed is wrong,” said John Brady, managing director at RJ O’Brien.
This is only the fifth time since 1989 that there has been an inversion in the eurodollar futures yield curve, where longer-term rates are below shorter-dated rates. Each time it has been followed by the Fed pausing its policy tightening.
The Fed has been stressing the strength of the economy in its recent communications but trade concerns have amplified fears that companies may begin to slow capital expenditure, while some analysts say that the boost from tax reform will begin to erode in 2019 as year-over-year growth comparisons will be set at a higher bar.
A second market measure of interest rate expectations, fed funds futures, which are less heavily traded than eurodollar futures, is showing a similar plateau in 2019, although it is not inverted.
Global Economy
Fed sees more Americans returning to workforce
The pattern can also be seen in the difference between two and 10-year Treasury yields, with the 10-year struggling to sustain levels above 3 per cent. When shorter-dated yields rise above longer-dated yields it is seen by many investors as a sign of a coming recession. The spread on Friday between the two Treasury benchmarks stood at just 24 basis points, the lowest level since 2007.
A majority of Fed policymakers expect two more rate rises this year. With further moves early next year, that would put the Fed close to its median estimate of the neutral interest rate, at which monetary policy neither stimulates nor cools the economy. Policymakers are intensely debating whether to push beyond that level or call a halt there.
Complicating deliberations is the Fed’s balance sheet, which some officials think may be artificially flattening the yield curve and making it a less useful indicator than in previous economic cycles.
The size of the balance sheet is still holding down long-term rates, they suggest, but the programme to reduce its holdings, which began in October of last year, may be contributing to an upward drift in short-term rates as investors struggle to digest the increase in supply.
Additional reporting by Sam Fleming
Bond markets signal early end to Fed rate rises
While the central bank hails strength of US economy, traders are not so sure
Fed chair Jay Powell
Joe Rennison in New York
Bond traders are anticipating that an end to the Federal Reserve’s cycle of monetary policy tightening could come as early as next year, facing down policymakers that expect to raise interest rates for longer.
While the Fed expects to raise rates into next year and potentially the year after — a point that could be reiterated by chair Jay Powell when he gives testimony this week to Congress — current prices in US interest rate markets suggest that the central bank will stop its hiking cycle sooner.
According to the median prediction by policymakers, the Fed policy rate will rise to 3.375 per cent in 2020. In contrast, eurodollar futures suggest rates may plateau in 2019.
The differences come as despite strong corporate earnings growth and positive economic data, investors are factoring in the risk of a slowdown in the economy.
“The markets are telling us that there is a pretty high risk of economic slowdown or recession at the end of 2019,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Capital Management.
The yield on futures expiring in December 2019 stood at 2.97 per cent on Friday, and on futures expiring in March 2020 it was an almost identical 2.975 per cent. The yield falls to 2.96 per cent for December 2020 eurodollar futures.
“The market is saying that the Fed is wrong,” said John Brady, managing director at RJ O’Brien.
This is only the fifth time since 1989 that there has been an inversion in the eurodollar futures yield curve, where longer-term rates are below shorter-dated rates. Each time it has been followed by the Fed pausing its policy tightening.
The Fed has been stressing the strength of the economy in its recent communications but trade concerns have amplified fears that companies may begin to slow capital expenditure, while some analysts say that the boost from tax reform will begin to erode in 2019 as year-over-year growth comparisons will be set at a higher bar.
A second market measure of interest rate expectations, fed funds futures, which are less heavily traded than eurodollar futures, is showing a similar plateau in 2019, although it is not inverted.
Global Economy
Fed sees more Americans returning to workforce
The pattern can also be seen in the difference between two and 10-year Treasury yields, with the 10-year struggling to sustain levels above 3 per cent. When shorter-dated yields rise above longer-dated yields it is seen by many investors as a sign of a coming recession. The spread on Friday between the two Treasury benchmarks stood at just 24 basis points, the lowest level since 2007.
A majority of Fed policymakers expect two more rate rises this year. With further moves early next year, that would put the Fed close to its median estimate of the neutral interest rate, at which monetary policy neither stimulates nor cools the economy. Policymakers are intensely debating whether to push beyond that level or call a halt there.
Complicating deliberations is the Fed’s balance sheet, which some officials think may be artificially flattening the yield curve and making it a less useful indicator than in previous economic cycles.
The size of the balance sheet is still holding down long-term rates, they suggest, but the programme to reduce its holdings, which began in October of last year, may be contributing to an upward drift in short-term rates as investors struggle to digest the increase in supply.
Additional reporting by Sam Fleming
Russians relied on bitcoin to finance election hacking, prosecutors say - CBS News
July 13, 2018, 5:56 PM
Russians relied on bitcoin to finance election hacking, prosecutors say
The 12 Russians indicted on Friday for conspiracy to interfere in the 2016 presidential election used well-known tactics to penetrate computer systems. To finance the operation, they relied on bitcoin, federal prosecutors said.
The indictment, which stemmed from the investigation of special counsel Robert Mueller, described the activities in a section on money laundering. "The Defendants conspired to launder the equivalent of more than $95,000 through a web of transactions structured to capitalize on the perceived anonymity of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin," the government indictment claims.
Purchases with bitcoin included computer servers and domain registrations. Prosecutors allege they used bitcoin to help conceal their identity.
"The use of bitcoin allowed the Conspirators to avoid direct relationships with traditional financial institutions, allowing them to evade greater scrutiny of their identities and sources of funds," the indictment reads.
They used several "dedicated email accounts" to track the bitcoin transactions. One email account named "gfadel47," received bitcoin payment requests from approximately 100 different email accounts, prosecutors said.
The Russian officers allegedly used fake names, including "Ward DeClaur" and "Mike Long," when purchasing a Malaysian server used to plant malware on networks of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic National Committee.
"It cost very little money," CNET senior producer Dan Patterson said on CBSN. "What they really invested in was psychological warfare, making sure they could trick people into falling for these spear phishing type of attacks."
Patterson said it was essentially "a very simple attack" that tricked staffers into clicking on emails from rogue accounts. That enabled Russian operatives to steal usernames and passwords and eventually infiltrate the entire network by exploiting security holes in Microsoft Exchange.
He notes it wasn't the first time Russian hackers are believed to have used such tactics.
"They did the same thing in Ukraine," Patterson said, referring to a series of cyberattacks that wreaked havoc on that country's energy grid. "In fact, the Russians probably used Ukraine as a test bed for cyberattacks targeted at the U.S."
Russians relied on bitcoin to finance election hacking, prosecutors say
The 12 Russians indicted on Friday for conspiracy to interfere in the 2016 presidential election used well-known tactics to penetrate computer systems. To finance the operation, they relied on bitcoin, federal prosecutors said.
The indictment, which stemmed from the investigation of special counsel Robert Mueller, described the activities in a section on money laundering. "The Defendants conspired to launder the equivalent of more than $95,000 through a web of transactions structured to capitalize on the perceived anonymity of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin," the government indictment claims.
Purchases with bitcoin included computer servers and domain registrations. Prosecutors allege they used bitcoin to help conceal their identity.
"The use of bitcoin allowed the Conspirators to avoid direct relationships with traditional financial institutions, allowing them to evade greater scrutiny of their identities and sources of funds," the indictment reads.
They used several "dedicated email accounts" to track the bitcoin transactions. One email account named "gfadel47," received bitcoin payment requests from approximately 100 different email accounts, prosecutors said.
The Russian officers allegedly used fake names, including "Ward DeClaur" and "Mike Long," when purchasing a Malaysian server used to plant malware on networks of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic National Committee.
"It cost very little money," CNET senior producer Dan Patterson said on CBSN. "What they really invested in was psychological warfare, making sure they could trick people into falling for these spear phishing type of attacks."
Patterson said it was essentially "a very simple attack" that tricked staffers into clicking on emails from rogue accounts. That enabled Russian operatives to steal usernames and passwords and eventually infiltrate the entire network by exploiting security holes in Microsoft Exchange.
He notes it wasn't the first time Russian hackers are believed to have used such tactics.
"They did the same thing in Ukraine," Patterson said, referring to a series of cyberattacks that wreaked havoc on that country's energy grid. "In fact, the Russians probably used Ukraine as a test bed for cyberattacks targeted at the U.S."
Trump: Low expectations for Putin talks - BBC News
July 15, 2018
Trump: Low expectations for Putin talks
The leaders will reportedly discuss US-Russia relations and national security issues on Monday
US President Trump has said he has "low expectations" for his meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin in Finland on Monday.
But he told CBS News that "nothing bad" and "maybe some good" would come out of the encounter.
He also said he would raise the subject of 12 Russians indicted for alleged hacking during the 2016 US election - but "hadn't thought" about asking for their extradition.
Russia denies the allegations.
There are no extradition arrangements between Russia and the US.
There have been calls in the US for Mr Trump to cancel his meeting with Mr Putin over the indictments, announced on Friday by US Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.
Four intriguing lines in Mueller charges
Who's who in Trump-Russia drama?
All you need to know about Mueller inquiry
Mr Trump told CBS News he "believed in meetings" and said his meetings with the North Korean and Chinese leaders had been a "very good thing".
"I think it's a good thing to meet. I do believe in meetings. I believe that having a meeting with Chairman Kim was a good thing. I think having meetings with the president of China was a very good thing. I believe it's really good. So having meetings with Russia, China, North Korea, I believe in it. Nothing bad is going to come out of it, and maybe some good will come out," he said.
"I can't tell you what's going to happen, but I can tell you what I'll be asking for. And we'll see if something comes of it," he added.
Mr Trump also repeated his earlier criticism of the Obama administration, which was in power when the alleged hacking of Democratic party officials took place.
"This was during the Obama administration. They were doing whatever it was during the Obama administration," he said.
"The DNC should be ashamed of themselves for allowing themselves to be hacked. They had bad defences and they were able to be hacked," he added.
He said he had been told "by a number of people" that hackers had also targeted the Republican party but "we had much better defences", although he added that "this may be wrong".
The US president has taken in a Nato summit and a visit to the UK ahead of his meeting with Mr Putin.
Putin laughs at political chaos in US
Russia has said it is looking forward to the talks.
"We consider Trump a negotiating partner," said Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov. "The state of bilateral relations is very bad. We have to start to set them right."
Russia's foreign ministry has said there was no evidence linking any of the dozen officials named in the US indictments to hacking or military intelligence.
What are the allegations?
The 11-count indictment names the Russians defendants, alleging they began cyber-attacks in March 2016 on the email accounts of staff for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign.
They are accused of using keystroke reading software to spy on the chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and hack into the party's computers.
Who has called for talks to be cancelled?
Top Democrats including party chairman Tom Perez have urged Mr Trump to abandon the talks, saying Mr Putin was "not a friend of the United States".
On the Republican side, Senator John McCain said the summit "should not move forward" unless the president "is prepared to hold Putin accountable".
What's the big picture?
Special Counsel Robert Mueller is investigating US intelligence findings that Russians conspired to sway the 2016 election in Mr Trump's favour.
As of Friday, the inquiry has indicted 32 people - mostly Russian nationals in absentia - as well as three companies and four former Trump advisers.
None of the charges allege Trump advisers colluded with Russia to interfere with the presidential campaign.
Why US fears Russia is hacking election
Former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and George Papadopoulos, a former foreign policy adviser, have pleaded guilty to making false statements about their contacts with Russians.
Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his deputy Rick Gates were charged with money laundering relating to their political consultancy work in Ukraine.
Trump: Low expectations for Putin talks
The leaders will reportedly discuss US-Russia relations and national security issues on Monday
US President Trump has said he has "low expectations" for his meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin in Finland on Monday.
But he told CBS News that "nothing bad" and "maybe some good" would come out of the encounter.
He also said he would raise the subject of 12 Russians indicted for alleged hacking during the 2016 US election - but "hadn't thought" about asking for their extradition.
Russia denies the allegations.
There are no extradition arrangements between Russia and the US.
There have been calls in the US for Mr Trump to cancel his meeting with Mr Putin over the indictments, announced on Friday by US Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.
Four intriguing lines in Mueller charges
Who's who in Trump-Russia drama?
All you need to know about Mueller inquiry
Mr Trump told CBS News he "believed in meetings" and said his meetings with the North Korean and Chinese leaders had been a "very good thing".
"I think it's a good thing to meet. I do believe in meetings. I believe that having a meeting with Chairman Kim was a good thing. I think having meetings with the president of China was a very good thing. I believe it's really good. So having meetings with Russia, China, North Korea, I believe in it. Nothing bad is going to come out of it, and maybe some good will come out," he said.
"I can't tell you what's going to happen, but I can tell you what I'll be asking for. And we'll see if something comes of it," he added.
Mr Trump also repeated his earlier criticism of the Obama administration, which was in power when the alleged hacking of Democratic party officials took place.
"This was during the Obama administration. They were doing whatever it was during the Obama administration," he said.
"The DNC should be ashamed of themselves for allowing themselves to be hacked. They had bad defences and they were able to be hacked," he added.
He said he had been told "by a number of people" that hackers had also targeted the Republican party but "we had much better defences", although he added that "this may be wrong".
The US president has taken in a Nato summit and a visit to the UK ahead of his meeting with Mr Putin.
Putin laughs at political chaos in US
Russia has said it is looking forward to the talks.
"We consider Trump a negotiating partner," said Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov. "The state of bilateral relations is very bad. We have to start to set them right."
Russia's foreign ministry has said there was no evidence linking any of the dozen officials named in the US indictments to hacking or military intelligence.
What are the allegations?
The 11-count indictment names the Russians defendants, alleging they began cyber-attacks in March 2016 on the email accounts of staff for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign.
They are accused of using keystroke reading software to spy on the chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and hack into the party's computers.
Who has called for talks to be cancelled?
Top Democrats including party chairman Tom Perez have urged Mr Trump to abandon the talks, saying Mr Putin was "not a friend of the United States".
On the Republican side, Senator John McCain said the summit "should not move forward" unless the president "is prepared to hold Putin accountable".
What's the big picture?
Special Counsel Robert Mueller is investigating US intelligence findings that Russians conspired to sway the 2016 election in Mr Trump's favour.
As of Friday, the inquiry has indicted 32 people - mostly Russian nationals in absentia - as well as three companies and four former Trump advisers.
None of the charges allege Trump advisers colluded with Russia to interfere with the presidential campaign.
Why US fears Russia is hacking election
Former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and George Papadopoulos, a former foreign policy adviser, have pleaded guilty to making false statements about their contacts with Russians.
Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his deputy Rick Gates were charged with money laundering relating to their political consultancy work in Ukraine.
Theresa May: Trump told me to sue the EU - BBC News
July 15, 2018
Theresa May: Trump told me to sue the EU
Theresa May reveals the advice President Trump gave her over Brexit
Donald Trump told Theresa May she should sue the EU rather than negotiate over Brexit, she has told the BBC.
The US president said on Friday at a joint press conference that he had given her a suggestion but she had found it too "brutal".
Asked by the BBC's Andrew Marr what it was he had said, she replied: "He told me I should sue the EU - not go into negotiations."
She defended her blueprint for Brexit and urged her critics to back it.
PM warns party not to put Brexit at risk
Trump: US-UK trade deal 'absolutely possible'
Why the EU is silent on May's Brexit plan
She said it would allow the UK to strike trade deals with other nations, end free movement of people and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
A White Paper published on Thursday fleshed out details of her plan, which advocates close links with the EU on trade in goods, but not services.
Before the paper was published, Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resigned, saying it would not deliver the Brexit people voted for in the 2016 EU referendum.
Prime Minister Theresa May and U.S. President Donald Trump hold a joint press conference at Chequers.
Mrs May laughed off the president's legal action suggestion, saying she would carry on with negotiations, but added: "Interestingly, what the president also said at that press conference was 'don't walk away'.
"Don't walk away from those negotiations because then you'll be stuck. So I want us to be able to sit down to negotiate the best deal for Britain.
Leading Tory Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg has called the White Paper a "bad deal for Britain". He says it would lead to the UK having to follow EU rules with no say in how they are made.
Donald Trump told the Sun newspaper Mrs May's proposals would "probably kill" a trade deal with his country.
Hours later, however, he said a US-UK trade deal would "absolutely be possible"
Eyes on the prize
Mrs May urged Brexiteers in her own party to "keep their eye on the prize" of Brexit - and said her plan was the only workable way to deliver it.
Her message comes ahead of crucial Commons votes on trade and customs policy in the coming week. with Tory Brexiteers tabling a series of amendments to the legislation.
"Some people are saying they want to vote in the Trade Bill to keep us in the customs union. I say that's not acceptable, " Mrs May told Andrew Marr.
"That's not what the British people voted for.
"Others are saying that perhaps we cannot have the bill at all. That would be damaging to our 'no deal' preparations.
"So let's just keep our eyes on the prize here. The prize is delivering leaving the European Union in a way that's in our national interest."
Mrs May insists her plans would allow the UK to strike its own trade deals, despite agreeing a "common rulebook" with the EU on cross-border trade.
She said such rules were needed to protect jobs in firms with supply chains that crossed borders and deal with the Irish border issue.
Labour Party chairman Ian Lavery said Mrs May's "so-called plan" did not "stand up to scrutiny".
"No-one - not the public, Parliament or the Conservative party - is happy with Theresa May's offer. This has descended into a shambles," he added.
Theresa May: Trump told me to sue the EU
Theresa May reveals the advice President Trump gave her over Brexit
Donald Trump told Theresa May she should sue the EU rather than negotiate over Brexit, she has told the BBC.
The US president said on Friday at a joint press conference that he had given her a suggestion but she had found it too "brutal".
Asked by the BBC's Andrew Marr what it was he had said, she replied: "He told me I should sue the EU - not go into negotiations."
She defended her blueprint for Brexit and urged her critics to back it.
PM warns party not to put Brexit at risk
Trump: US-UK trade deal 'absolutely possible'
Why the EU is silent on May's Brexit plan
She said it would allow the UK to strike trade deals with other nations, end free movement of people and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
A White Paper published on Thursday fleshed out details of her plan, which advocates close links with the EU on trade in goods, but not services.
Before the paper was published, Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resigned, saying it would not deliver the Brexit people voted for in the 2016 EU referendum.
Prime Minister Theresa May and U.S. President Donald Trump hold a joint press conference at Chequers.
Mrs May laughed off the president's legal action suggestion, saying she would carry on with negotiations, but added: "Interestingly, what the president also said at that press conference was 'don't walk away'.
"Don't walk away from those negotiations because then you'll be stuck. So I want us to be able to sit down to negotiate the best deal for Britain.
Leading Tory Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg has called the White Paper a "bad deal for Britain". He says it would lead to the UK having to follow EU rules with no say in how they are made.
Donald Trump told the Sun newspaper Mrs May's proposals would "probably kill" a trade deal with his country.
Hours later, however, he said a US-UK trade deal would "absolutely be possible"
Eyes on the prize
Mrs May urged Brexiteers in her own party to "keep their eye on the prize" of Brexit - and said her plan was the only workable way to deliver it.
Her message comes ahead of crucial Commons votes on trade and customs policy in the coming week. with Tory Brexiteers tabling a series of amendments to the legislation.
"Some people are saying they want to vote in the Trade Bill to keep us in the customs union. I say that's not acceptable, " Mrs May told Andrew Marr.
"That's not what the British people voted for.
"Others are saying that perhaps we cannot have the bill at all. That would be damaging to our 'no deal' preparations.
"So let's just keep our eyes on the prize here. The prize is delivering leaving the European Union in a way that's in our national interest."
Mrs May insists her plans would allow the UK to strike its own trade deals, despite agreeing a "common rulebook" with the EU on cross-border trade.
She said such rules were needed to protect jobs in firms with supply chains that crossed borders and deal with the Irish border issue.
Labour Party chairman Ian Lavery said Mrs May's "so-called plan" did not "stand up to scrutiny".
"No-one - not the public, Parliament or the Conservative party - is happy with Theresa May's offer. This has descended into a shambles," he added.
Saturday, July 14, 2018
The Trump baby blimp is making the US president 'feel unwelcome' in the UK - Independent
July 14, 2018
The Trump baby blimp is making the US president 'feel unwelcome' in the UK
Posted 2 days ago by Greg Evans in news
UPVOTE
Donald Trump has been in the UK less than 24 hours and he's already admitted that he "feels unwelcome."
Why on earth would he feel like this?
Surely he's aware that thousands of people will be gathering in central London later to mark his arrival? There will be balloons and everything.
Sadly, for Donald. That's what he has taken an exception to. A balloon.
By now you are probably aware that 20ft 'Trump Baby' blimp will be flown over Parliament Square this morning and the famously-thick-skinned President isn't best pleased.
Speaking to The Sun he said:
I guess when they put out blimps to make me feel unwelcome, no reason for me to go to London.
I used to love London as a city. I haven’t been there in a long time.
But when they make you feel unwelcome, why would I stay there?
It's true that Trump's arrival in the UK is mostly being viewed as an unpopular event with protests expected around the capital throughout Friday.
The Mayor of London, Sadiq Kahn has authorised the blimp and Trump continued to criticise the Labour representative and the job that he is doing.
You have a mayor who has done a terrible job in London. He has done a terrible job.
Take a look at the terrorism that is taking place. Look at what is going on in London.
He might not like the current president, but I represent the United States.
Once again, despite a predicted 200,000 people expected to be at the protests, Trump believes that he is still popular amongst the British public.
And when I say that [being unwelcome] I am talking about government because the people of the UK agree with me.
Many people are delighted. I get thousands of notifications from people in the UK that they love the President of the United States.
They want the same thing I want.
Considering that he won't be returning to London for the rest of his trip he would have been hoping to not see the blimp in person but The Hill reports that it will be transported to Scotland where there are plans to fly in at his Turnberry golf course.
However, that is unlikely to happen as local police have already confirmed that they won't allow the blimp to fly.
Assistant Chief Constable Mark Williams said:
Clearly, there is a significant protection operation in place for the president and this includes restrictions to the airspace in the Turnberry area.
We need to ensure there is a balance between protection and public safety and the public's right to peacefully protest.
With that in mind and on this occasion we are unable to grant permission for the balloon to fly in that area, however, we are in discussion with the applicants about possible alternatives
HT The Sun
The Trump baby blimp is making the US president 'feel unwelcome' in the UK
Posted 2 days ago by Greg Evans in news
UPVOTE
Donald Trump has been in the UK less than 24 hours and he's already admitted that he "feels unwelcome."
Why on earth would he feel like this?
Surely he's aware that thousands of people will be gathering in central London later to mark his arrival? There will be balloons and everything.
Sadly, for Donald. That's what he has taken an exception to. A balloon.
By now you are probably aware that 20ft 'Trump Baby' blimp will be flown over Parliament Square this morning and the famously-thick-skinned President isn't best pleased.
Speaking to The Sun he said:
I guess when they put out blimps to make me feel unwelcome, no reason for me to go to London.
I used to love London as a city. I haven’t been there in a long time.
But when they make you feel unwelcome, why would I stay there?
It's true that Trump's arrival in the UK is mostly being viewed as an unpopular event with protests expected around the capital throughout Friday.
The Mayor of London, Sadiq Kahn has authorised the blimp and Trump continued to criticise the Labour representative and the job that he is doing.
You have a mayor who has done a terrible job in London. He has done a terrible job.
Take a look at the terrorism that is taking place. Look at what is going on in London.
He might not like the current president, but I represent the United States.
Once again, despite a predicted 200,000 people expected to be at the protests, Trump believes that he is still popular amongst the British public.
And when I say that [being unwelcome] I am talking about government because the people of the UK agree with me.
Many people are delighted. I get thousands of notifications from people in the UK that they love the President of the United States.
They want the same thing I want.
Considering that he won't be returning to London for the rest of his trip he would have been hoping to not see the blimp in person but The Hill reports that it will be transported to Scotland where there are plans to fly in at his Turnberry golf course.
However, that is unlikely to happen as local police have already confirmed that they won't allow the blimp to fly.
Assistant Chief Constable Mark Williams said:
Clearly, there is a significant protection operation in place for the president and this includes restrictions to the airspace in the Turnberry area.
We need to ensure there is a balance between protection and public safety and the public's right to peacefully protest.
With that in mind and on this occasion we are unable to grant permission for the balloon to fly in that area, however, we are in discussion with the applicants about possible alternatives
HT The Sun
Don’t be fooled – Liu Xia’s release is not a sign of China’s softening stance on critics - Hong Kong Free Press
Don’t be fooled – Liu Xia’s release is not a sign of China’s softening stance on critics
14 July 2018 14:30 Kent Ewing5 min read
The photograph of a euphoric Liu Xia, the poet and widow of Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo, landing in Helsinki on Tuesday for a short layover on her way to freedom in Berlin earlier this week spoke for itself: grinning broadly, her arms spread like a bird in flight, she had finally, after the imprisonment and death of her husband and years of psychological torture under house arrest in Beijing, escaped the clutches of her tormentors.
Her frail body told of her prolonged detention by security forces in China, but her newfound joy and energy showed the strength of her spirit—indeed, of the human spirit, and was an inspiration for all to see.
One cannot help but share in Liu’s happiness and exhilaration and hope that she soon recovers from the clinical depression and physical debilitation that her ordeal has cost her.
But this is no time for celebration. While Liu, 57, is beginning a new life of freedom in Berlin, many other lesser-known dissidents continue to languish in prisons and detention centres in China, and President Xi Jinping’s three-year-long crackdown on human rights lawyers and activists continues unabated.
Indeed, Xi’s purge of hundreds, if not thousands, of putative subversives is the worst such witch hunt since the aftermath of Deng Xiaoping’s military assault on the pro-democracy protesters who occupied Tiananmen Square for nearly two months in the spring of 1989.
And, just in case anyone was inclined to misinterpret the release of Liu as a sign that the Chinese leadership was softening its stance on critics of its authoritarian one-party rule, less than 24 hours after Liu’s arrival in Berlin human-rights activist Qin Yongmin was found guilty of “subversion of state power” by a court in Wuhan and sentenced to 13 years behind bars.
That’s the harshest sentence meted out for subversion by a Chinese court in 15 years and comes on top of the 22 years the 64-year-old Qin has already spent in prison for “counter-revolutionary” activities.
So much for human rights in China.
Looking at the broader picture, it becomes clear that Liu, who spent eight agonising years under house arrest although she was never charged with any crime, is just another pawn in China’s ongoing geopolitical chess match with Western powers, now divided by the aggressively nationalistic policies of United States President Donald Trump.
Caught in a growing trade dispute with the US that is threatening to blow up into a full-on trade war, Xi hopes to curry favour with Germany and, by extension, the European Union with the release of Liu for medical treatment.
But this apparent “humanitarian” gesture, as Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam has so maladroitly characterised it, is in reality a cold diplomatic calculation, offering no promise of better treatment for others bold enough to speak out against the Chinese government on their home turf.
It should be remembered that Liu herself is actually no dissident; she is an accomplished poet and painter who just happened to be married to the man who won the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize for his long campaign to bring about a freer, more democratic China.
Liu Xiaobo’s efforts included lending support to the student-led Tiananmen protests 29 years ago and, more recently, coauthoring Charter 08, a manifesto signed by more than 300 Chinese intellectuals and human rights activists calling for the end of one-party rule and an independent legal system in China.
Liu was arrested in December of 2008, two days before the scheduled official release of the charter, indicted a year later for “inciting subversion of state power” and sentenced to 11 years in prison by a Beijing court on Christmas Day, 2009.
Memorably, a year later, Liu’s Noble Prize was awarded to an empty chair in the Norwegian capital of Oslo—an iconic moment that drew an angry response from the Chinese government, whose foreign ministry had denounced the choice of Liu as a “desecration of the Peace Prize,” and prompted further repression of dissent across China.
Aged 61, Liu died of liver cancer in a hospital in Shenyang one year ago this Friday after being refused treatment abroad, the first Nobel Peace Prize winner to die in custody since German pacifist Carl von Ossietzky in 1938. Liu is rightly regarded as a hero in many places, including Hong Kong, where the anniversary of his death was marked in a solemn ceremony organised by pro-democracy activists, as it was in Berlin and in other cities around the globe.
Liu Xiaobo’s empty chair during the Nobel Prize awarding ceremony in 2010. Photo: VOA via Wikimedia Commons.
Liu’s legacy lives on in these memorials and in the revived spirit of his widow as she starts her new life in Berlin.
It would be unfair, however, to expect Liu Xia to pick up the human-rights mantle that her husband left behind. No doubt, once she has recovered her health, she would be willing, but her two brothers, Liu Tong and Liu Hui, remain in China as additional pawns in the Chinese government’s great geopolitical game.
If Liu speaks out from Berlin, they could very well suffer the consequences back home. Liu Hui, her younger brother, has already spent time in prison on trumped-up fraud charges and would likely be a target for retribution again if his sister lobs anti-China criticisms from her perch in the German capital.
That’s why this feel-good story of the long-suffering Liu Xia’s release winds up, in the end, feeling pretty bad.
14 July 2018 14:30 Kent Ewing5 min read
The photograph of a euphoric Liu Xia, the poet and widow of Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo, landing in Helsinki on Tuesday for a short layover on her way to freedom in Berlin earlier this week spoke for itself: grinning broadly, her arms spread like a bird in flight, she had finally, after the imprisonment and death of her husband and years of psychological torture under house arrest in Beijing, escaped the clutches of her tormentors.
Her frail body told of her prolonged detention by security forces in China, but her newfound joy and energy showed the strength of her spirit—indeed, of the human spirit, and was an inspiration for all to see.
One cannot help but share in Liu’s happiness and exhilaration and hope that she soon recovers from the clinical depression and physical debilitation that her ordeal has cost her.
But this is no time for celebration. While Liu, 57, is beginning a new life of freedom in Berlin, many other lesser-known dissidents continue to languish in prisons and detention centres in China, and President Xi Jinping’s three-year-long crackdown on human rights lawyers and activists continues unabated.
Indeed, Xi’s purge of hundreds, if not thousands, of putative subversives is the worst such witch hunt since the aftermath of Deng Xiaoping’s military assault on the pro-democracy protesters who occupied Tiananmen Square for nearly two months in the spring of 1989.
And, just in case anyone was inclined to misinterpret the release of Liu as a sign that the Chinese leadership was softening its stance on critics of its authoritarian one-party rule, less than 24 hours after Liu’s arrival in Berlin human-rights activist Qin Yongmin was found guilty of “subversion of state power” by a court in Wuhan and sentenced to 13 years behind bars.
That’s the harshest sentence meted out for subversion by a Chinese court in 15 years and comes on top of the 22 years the 64-year-old Qin has already spent in prison for “counter-revolutionary” activities.
So much for human rights in China.
Looking at the broader picture, it becomes clear that Liu, who spent eight agonising years under house arrest although she was never charged with any crime, is just another pawn in China’s ongoing geopolitical chess match with Western powers, now divided by the aggressively nationalistic policies of United States President Donald Trump.
Caught in a growing trade dispute with the US that is threatening to blow up into a full-on trade war, Xi hopes to curry favour with Germany and, by extension, the European Union with the release of Liu for medical treatment.
But this apparent “humanitarian” gesture, as Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam has so maladroitly characterised it, is in reality a cold diplomatic calculation, offering no promise of better treatment for others bold enough to speak out against the Chinese government on their home turf.
It should be remembered that Liu herself is actually no dissident; she is an accomplished poet and painter who just happened to be married to the man who won the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize for his long campaign to bring about a freer, more democratic China.
Liu Xiaobo’s efforts included lending support to the student-led Tiananmen protests 29 years ago and, more recently, coauthoring Charter 08, a manifesto signed by more than 300 Chinese intellectuals and human rights activists calling for the end of one-party rule and an independent legal system in China.
Liu was arrested in December of 2008, two days before the scheduled official release of the charter, indicted a year later for “inciting subversion of state power” and sentenced to 11 years in prison by a Beijing court on Christmas Day, 2009.
Memorably, a year later, Liu’s Noble Prize was awarded to an empty chair in the Norwegian capital of Oslo—an iconic moment that drew an angry response from the Chinese government, whose foreign ministry had denounced the choice of Liu as a “desecration of the Peace Prize,” and prompted further repression of dissent across China.
Aged 61, Liu died of liver cancer in a hospital in Shenyang one year ago this Friday after being refused treatment abroad, the first Nobel Peace Prize winner to die in custody since German pacifist Carl von Ossietzky in 1938. Liu is rightly regarded as a hero in many places, including Hong Kong, where the anniversary of his death was marked in a solemn ceremony organised by pro-democracy activists, as it was in Berlin and in other cities around the globe.
Liu Xiaobo’s empty chair during the Nobel Prize awarding ceremony in 2010. Photo: VOA via Wikimedia Commons.
Liu’s legacy lives on in these memorials and in the revived spirit of his widow as she starts her new life in Berlin.
It would be unfair, however, to expect Liu Xia to pick up the human-rights mantle that her husband left behind. No doubt, once she has recovered her health, she would be willing, but her two brothers, Liu Tong and Liu Hui, remain in China as additional pawns in the Chinese government’s great geopolitical game.
If Liu speaks out from Berlin, they could very well suffer the consequences back home. Liu Hui, her younger brother, has already spent time in prison on trumped-up fraud charges and would likely be a target for retribution again if his sister lobs anti-China criticisms from her perch in the German capital.
That’s why this feel-good story of the long-suffering Liu Xia’s release winds up, in the end, feeling pretty bad.
How Beijing is winning control of the South China Sea - Nikkei Asian Review
How Beijing is winning control of the South China Sea
Erratic US policy and fraying alliances give China a free hand
SIMON ROUGHNEEN, Asia regional correspondent
June 13, 2018 14:04 JST
SINGAPORE -- Even by his outspoken standards, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s account of a conversation he had with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, was startling.
During a meeting between the two leaders in Beijing in May 2017, the subject turned to whether the Philippines would seek to drill for oil in a part of the South China Sea claimed by both countries. Duterte said he was given a blunt warning by China’s president.
“[Xi’s] response to me [was], ‘We’re friends, we don’t want to quarrel with you, we want to maintain the presence of warm relationship, but if you force the issue, we’ll go to war,” Duterte recounted.
A year later, Duterte was asked for a response to news that China had landed long-range bombers on one of the South China Sea's Paracel Islands -- a milestone that suggests the People's Liberation Army Air Force can easily make the short hop to most of Southeast Asia from its new airstrips. “What’s the point of questioning whether the planes there land or not?” Duterte responded.
His refusal to condemn China’s military buildup underlines China's success in subduing its rivals in the South China Sea. Since 2013 China has expanded artificial islands and reefs in the sea and subsequently installed a network of runways, missile launchers, barracks and communications facilities.
These military advances have led many to wonder if Beijing has already established unassailable control over the disputed waters. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have overlapping claims to parts of the South China Sea and its islands – claims that are looking increasingly forlorn in the wake of China’s military buildup.
“What China is winning is de facto control of nearly the entire South China Sea, including all activities and resources in it, despite the other surrounding Southeast Asian states' respective legal rights and entitlements under international law,” said Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea.
At stake is the huge commercial and military leverage that comes with controlling one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, through which up to $5 trillion worth of trade passes each year.
U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis insists that China faces “consequences” for the “militarization” of South China Sea, which he says is being done for “the purposes of intimidation and coercion.”
“There are consequences that will continue to come home to roost, so to speak, with China, if they do not find the way to work more collaboratively with all of the nations,” Mattis said on June 2 at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, a security conference organized by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Mac Thornberry, chairman of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee, added that the U.S. naval presence means China does not have a free hand in the South China Sea.
“I think you will see more and more nations working together to affirm freedom of navigation through the South China Sea and other international waters,” Thornberry told the Nikkei Asian Review.
But what those consequences might be was left unsaid by Mattis, who suggested that there was little prospect of forcing China to give up its growing network of military facilities dotting the sea.
“We all know nobody is ready to invade," he said.
U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis talked up the "Indo-Pacific" strategy in his June 2 speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. (Photo by Simon Roughneen)
Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said, “There is no reasonable basis for the U.S. to use military force to push China off its outposts, nor would any country in the region support such an effort.”
The U.S. pushback so far has included disinviting China from a major Pacific naval exercise. It also continues to carry out so-called freedom of navigation operations, or FONOPs, the most recent of which took place on May 27. This was followed by U.S. military aircraft flying over the Paracel Islands in early June, a move that prompted a countercharge of “militarization'” against the U.S. by China's Foreign Ministry.
China regards the FONOPs as sabre-rattling and “a challenge to [our] sovereignty,” according to Lt. Gen. He Lei, Beijing's lead representative at the Singapore conference.
He restated the government position on troops and weapons on islands in the South China Sea, describing the deployments as an assertion of sovereignty and said that allegations of militarization were “hyped up” by the U.S.
Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana stopped short of endorsing the FONOPs but told the Nikkei Asian Review that “it is our belief that those sea lanes should be left open and free.”
In contrast to Duterte's reluctance to confront China, his predecessor as president, Benigno Aquino, was frequently outspoken about China's increasing control of the sea. He pressed a case against Beijing to an arbitration tribunal in 2013 after a protracted naval stand-off the year before around Scarborough Shoal, a rock claimed by both countries and lying about 120 nautical miles off the Luzon coast.
In mid-2016 the tribunal dismissed China’s expansive “nine-dash line” claim to much of the South China Sea and its artificial island-building and expansion, all of which the tribunal said contravened the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, or UNCLOS.
Duterte said he would not “flaunt” the tribunal outcome, in contrast with his campaign pledge to assert the country's sovereignty -- he even vowed to ride a jet ski to one of China's artificial islands and plant the Philippine flag there. Manila hopes for significant Chinese investment in roads, rail and ports, as part of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, a multicontinent plan outlining China-backed infrastructure upgrades.
Filipino activists rally outside the Chinese Consulate in Manila in February to protest Beijing's continued reclamation activities in the South China Sea. © Reuters
Defense Secretary Lorenzana emphasized in remarks to the media in Singapore that good relations with China remain a priority, regardless of bilateral disputes. “It is just natural for us to befriend our neighbor. We cannot avoid dealing with China, they are near, [and] many Filipinos, including me, have Chinese blood.”
For the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, there are growing doubts about whether the American navy would protect them in a conflict with China, something Duterte, a brusque critic of the U.S., has questioned publicly.
Mattis, like former President Barack Obama and his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, sidestepped a question on that issue in Singapore, saying, “The reason why public figures do not want to give specific answers is that these are complex issues.”
Shifting US policy leaves Asian allies at sea
US and China trade barbs over South China Sea island-building
American evasiveness is a reminder to the Philippines that the U.S. might not risk war with China over its old ally. “It is debatable whether Filipinos believe that the U.S. will have its back in a conflict with China,” Batongbacal of the University of the Philippines said. “Duterte's repeated statements against the reliability of the U.S. as an ally tends to undermine this further.”
Duterte's reticence has left Vietnam as the sole claimant willing to speak up. Discussing recent developments in the South China Sea, Vietnamese Defense Minister Gen. Ngo Xuan Lich told the Singapore conference, "Under no circumstances could we excuse militarization by deploying weapons and military hardware over disputed areas against regional commitments.”
Lich did not name-check China in his speech, but described “a serious breach to the sovereignty” of another country that “violates international laws, complicates the situation and negatively affects regional peace, stability and security.”
As well as hindering oil and gas projects in waters close to Vietnam, China's navy has for several years harassed Vietnamese fishing boats -- as it does around the Philippines -- and continues to occupy islands seized from Vietnam nearly five decades ago.
In 2014, anti-China riots kicked off across Vietnam after China placed an oil rig in South China Sea waters claimed by Hanoi. In early June there were demonstrations against proposals that protesters claimed will give Chinese businesses favored access in so-called Special Economic Zones in Vietnam.
The Lan Tay gas platform, operated by Rosneft Vietnam, sits in the South China Sea off the Vietnamese coast. China has been hindering Vietnam's oil exploration activities in the sea. © Reuters
Vietnam's response to potential isolation has been a cautious dalliance with the U.S. In late 2016, shortly before the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, American warships docked in Vietnam's Cam Ranh Bay naval base, the first such visit since the former antagonists normalized ties in 1995. That landmark was followed in March this year by the arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier to the central Vietnam city of Danang.
Hanoi recently called for greater Japanese involvement in the region's maritime disputes, perhaps signalling an interest in a wider effort to counter China. But unlike the Philippines, Vietnam, which like China is a single party communist-run state, is not a U.S. treaty ally. Historical and ideological differences mean that there are limits to how closely Vietnam will align with the U.S.
“I think there is a good momentum with defense cooperation with the U.S. But I don't think that it would immediately mean jumping into the ‘American camp,’ whatever it means,” said Huong Le Thu, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
The U.S. has sought to widen the array of countries it hopes will join it in countering China’s rising influence. During his 12-day swing through Asia in late 2017, Trump peppered his speeches with references to the “Indo-Pacific,” dispensing with the long established “Asia-Pacific” label in favor of a more expansive term first used by Japan.
The "Indo-Pacific" was then mentioned throughout the U.S. National Security Strategy published soon after Trump’s Asia trip -- a document that alleged China aims to “challenge American power” and “is using economic inducements and penalties, influence operations, and implied military threats to persuade other states to heed its political and security agenda.”
Three days before his Singapore speech, Mattis announced in Hawaii that the U.S. Pacific Command would be renamed the Indo-Pacific Command, describing the expanded theater as stretching “from Bollywood to Hollywood."
Mattis later added some gravitas to the cinematic catchphrase, saying in Singapore that “standing shoulder to shoulder with India, ASEAN and our treaty allies and other partners, America seeks to build an Indo-Pacific where sovereignty and territorial integrity are safeguarded -- the promise of freedom fulfilled and prosperity prevails for all.”
The Trump administration clearly hopes for greater Indian involvement in its efforts to counter China's growing influence. Kori Schake, deputy director-general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that while “Indo-Pacific isn't yet an established part of the lexicon,” the implications of the term are clear.
“India is an Asian power. The countries adopting the term are encouraging India into greater cooperation in maintaining the maritime commons in the Indian and Pacific oceans,” said Schake, a former U.S. State Department official.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security conference, in Singapore on June 1. (Photo by Simon Roughneen)
Modi enthusiastically echoed American rhetoric about a “shared vision of an open, stable, secure and prosperous” Indo-Pacific, which he described as “a natural region” -- countering those who wonder if an area stretching from Bollywood to Hollywood might too vast and disparate to be cast into a geopolitical fact on the ground.
But Modi also heaped praise on China, despite its border dispute with India and increasingly close economic ties with Pakistan, India's neighbor and nuclear rival.
“Our cooperation is expanding. Trade is growing. And, we have displayed maturity and wisdom in managing issues and ensuring a peaceful border,” Modi said.
China's foreign ministry described Modi's speech as "positive," while one of its military delegation at the Singapore conference gloated that India and the U.S. "have different understandings, different interpretations, of this Indo-Pacific."
China's first domestically designed and built aircraft carrier © Kyodo
It is perhaps no surprise then that China's rivals in the South China Sea do not yet regard the nascent Indo-Pacific alliance-building as something to pin their hopes on when it comes to control of the sea.
“We are witnessing the great power shift toward Asia-Pacific with the 'Indo-Pacific strategy,' Belt and Road Initiative and a series of country grouping[s] in the region,” Lich said, cautioning that “the outcomes for the region and the world are somewhat yet to be unveiled.”
Lich's Philippine counterpart was even more circumspect, particularly regarding the Indo-Pacific concept. “I have to study it some more,” Lorenzana said. “This is a new construct in this area.”
Nikkei staff writers Mikhail Flores in Manila and Atsushi Tomiyama in Hanoi contributed to this article.
Erratic US policy and fraying alliances give China a free hand
SIMON ROUGHNEEN, Asia regional correspondent
June 13, 2018 14:04 JST
SINGAPORE -- Even by his outspoken standards, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s account of a conversation he had with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, was startling.
During a meeting between the two leaders in Beijing in May 2017, the subject turned to whether the Philippines would seek to drill for oil in a part of the South China Sea claimed by both countries. Duterte said he was given a blunt warning by China’s president.
“[Xi’s] response to me [was], ‘We’re friends, we don’t want to quarrel with you, we want to maintain the presence of warm relationship, but if you force the issue, we’ll go to war,” Duterte recounted.
A year later, Duterte was asked for a response to news that China had landed long-range bombers on one of the South China Sea's Paracel Islands -- a milestone that suggests the People's Liberation Army Air Force can easily make the short hop to most of Southeast Asia from its new airstrips. “What’s the point of questioning whether the planes there land or not?” Duterte responded.
His refusal to condemn China’s military buildup underlines China's success in subduing its rivals in the South China Sea. Since 2013 China has expanded artificial islands and reefs in the sea and subsequently installed a network of runways, missile launchers, barracks and communications facilities.
These military advances have led many to wonder if Beijing has already established unassailable control over the disputed waters. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have overlapping claims to parts of the South China Sea and its islands – claims that are looking increasingly forlorn in the wake of China’s military buildup.
“What China is winning is de facto control of nearly the entire South China Sea, including all activities and resources in it, despite the other surrounding Southeast Asian states' respective legal rights and entitlements under international law,” said Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea.
At stake is the huge commercial and military leverage that comes with controlling one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, through which up to $5 trillion worth of trade passes each year.
U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis insists that China faces “consequences” for the “militarization” of South China Sea, which he says is being done for “the purposes of intimidation and coercion.”
“There are consequences that will continue to come home to roost, so to speak, with China, if they do not find the way to work more collaboratively with all of the nations,” Mattis said on June 2 at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, a security conference organized by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Mac Thornberry, chairman of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee, added that the U.S. naval presence means China does not have a free hand in the South China Sea.
“I think you will see more and more nations working together to affirm freedom of navigation through the South China Sea and other international waters,” Thornberry told the Nikkei Asian Review.
But what those consequences might be was left unsaid by Mattis, who suggested that there was little prospect of forcing China to give up its growing network of military facilities dotting the sea.
“We all know nobody is ready to invade," he said.
U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis talked up the "Indo-Pacific" strategy in his June 2 speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. (Photo by Simon Roughneen)
Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said, “There is no reasonable basis for the U.S. to use military force to push China off its outposts, nor would any country in the region support such an effort.”
The U.S. pushback so far has included disinviting China from a major Pacific naval exercise. It also continues to carry out so-called freedom of navigation operations, or FONOPs, the most recent of which took place on May 27. This was followed by U.S. military aircraft flying over the Paracel Islands in early June, a move that prompted a countercharge of “militarization'” against the U.S. by China's Foreign Ministry.
China regards the FONOPs as sabre-rattling and “a challenge to [our] sovereignty,” according to Lt. Gen. He Lei, Beijing's lead representative at the Singapore conference.
He restated the government position on troops and weapons on islands in the South China Sea, describing the deployments as an assertion of sovereignty and said that allegations of militarization were “hyped up” by the U.S.
Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana stopped short of endorsing the FONOPs but told the Nikkei Asian Review that “it is our belief that those sea lanes should be left open and free.”
In contrast to Duterte's reluctance to confront China, his predecessor as president, Benigno Aquino, was frequently outspoken about China's increasing control of the sea. He pressed a case against Beijing to an arbitration tribunal in 2013 after a protracted naval stand-off the year before around Scarborough Shoal, a rock claimed by both countries and lying about 120 nautical miles off the Luzon coast.
In mid-2016 the tribunal dismissed China’s expansive “nine-dash line” claim to much of the South China Sea and its artificial island-building and expansion, all of which the tribunal said contravened the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, or UNCLOS.
Duterte said he would not “flaunt” the tribunal outcome, in contrast with his campaign pledge to assert the country's sovereignty -- he even vowed to ride a jet ski to one of China's artificial islands and plant the Philippine flag there. Manila hopes for significant Chinese investment in roads, rail and ports, as part of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, a multicontinent plan outlining China-backed infrastructure upgrades.
Filipino activists rally outside the Chinese Consulate in Manila in February to protest Beijing's continued reclamation activities in the South China Sea. © Reuters
Defense Secretary Lorenzana emphasized in remarks to the media in Singapore that good relations with China remain a priority, regardless of bilateral disputes. “It is just natural for us to befriend our neighbor. We cannot avoid dealing with China, they are near, [and] many Filipinos, including me, have Chinese blood.”
For the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, there are growing doubts about whether the American navy would protect them in a conflict with China, something Duterte, a brusque critic of the U.S., has questioned publicly.
Mattis, like former President Barack Obama and his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, sidestepped a question on that issue in Singapore, saying, “The reason why public figures do not want to give specific answers is that these are complex issues.”
Shifting US policy leaves Asian allies at sea
US and China trade barbs over South China Sea island-building
American evasiveness is a reminder to the Philippines that the U.S. might not risk war with China over its old ally. “It is debatable whether Filipinos believe that the U.S. will have its back in a conflict with China,” Batongbacal of the University of the Philippines said. “Duterte's repeated statements against the reliability of the U.S. as an ally tends to undermine this further.”
Duterte's reticence has left Vietnam as the sole claimant willing to speak up. Discussing recent developments in the South China Sea, Vietnamese Defense Minister Gen. Ngo Xuan Lich told the Singapore conference, "Under no circumstances could we excuse militarization by deploying weapons and military hardware over disputed areas against regional commitments.”
Lich did not name-check China in his speech, but described “a serious breach to the sovereignty” of another country that “violates international laws, complicates the situation and negatively affects regional peace, stability and security.”
As well as hindering oil and gas projects in waters close to Vietnam, China's navy has for several years harassed Vietnamese fishing boats -- as it does around the Philippines -- and continues to occupy islands seized from Vietnam nearly five decades ago.
In 2014, anti-China riots kicked off across Vietnam after China placed an oil rig in South China Sea waters claimed by Hanoi. In early June there were demonstrations against proposals that protesters claimed will give Chinese businesses favored access in so-called Special Economic Zones in Vietnam.
The Lan Tay gas platform, operated by Rosneft Vietnam, sits in the South China Sea off the Vietnamese coast. China has been hindering Vietnam's oil exploration activities in the sea. © Reuters
Vietnam's response to potential isolation has been a cautious dalliance with the U.S. In late 2016, shortly before the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, American warships docked in Vietnam's Cam Ranh Bay naval base, the first such visit since the former antagonists normalized ties in 1995. That landmark was followed in March this year by the arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier to the central Vietnam city of Danang.
Hanoi recently called for greater Japanese involvement in the region's maritime disputes, perhaps signalling an interest in a wider effort to counter China. But unlike the Philippines, Vietnam, which like China is a single party communist-run state, is not a U.S. treaty ally. Historical and ideological differences mean that there are limits to how closely Vietnam will align with the U.S.
“I think there is a good momentum with defense cooperation with the U.S. But I don't think that it would immediately mean jumping into the ‘American camp,’ whatever it means,” said Huong Le Thu, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
The U.S. has sought to widen the array of countries it hopes will join it in countering China’s rising influence. During his 12-day swing through Asia in late 2017, Trump peppered his speeches with references to the “Indo-Pacific,” dispensing with the long established “Asia-Pacific” label in favor of a more expansive term first used by Japan.
The "Indo-Pacific" was then mentioned throughout the U.S. National Security Strategy published soon after Trump’s Asia trip -- a document that alleged China aims to “challenge American power” and “is using economic inducements and penalties, influence operations, and implied military threats to persuade other states to heed its political and security agenda.”
Three days before his Singapore speech, Mattis announced in Hawaii that the U.S. Pacific Command would be renamed the Indo-Pacific Command, describing the expanded theater as stretching “from Bollywood to Hollywood."
Mattis later added some gravitas to the cinematic catchphrase, saying in Singapore that “standing shoulder to shoulder with India, ASEAN and our treaty allies and other partners, America seeks to build an Indo-Pacific where sovereignty and territorial integrity are safeguarded -- the promise of freedom fulfilled and prosperity prevails for all.”
The Trump administration clearly hopes for greater Indian involvement in its efforts to counter China's growing influence. Kori Schake, deputy director-general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that while “Indo-Pacific isn't yet an established part of the lexicon,” the implications of the term are clear.
“India is an Asian power. The countries adopting the term are encouraging India into greater cooperation in maintaining the maritime commons in the Indian and Pacific oceans,” said Schake, a former U.S. State Department official.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security conference, in Singapore on June 1. (Photo by Simon Roughneen)
Modi enthusiastically echoed American rhetoric about a “shared vision of an open, stable, secure and prosperous” Indo-Pacific, which he described as “a natural region” -- countering those who wonder if an area stretching from Bollywood to Hollywood might too vast and disparate to be cast into a geopolitical fact on the ground.
But Modi also heaped praise on China, despite its border dispute with India and increasingly close economic ties with Pakistan, India's neighbor and nuclear rival.
“Our cooperation is expanding. Trade is growing. And, we have displayed maturity and wisdom in managing issues and ensuring a peaceful border,” Modi said.
China's foreign ministry described Modi's speech as "positive," while one of its military delegation at the Singapore conference gloated that India and the U.S. "have different understandings, different interpretations, of this Indo-Pacific."
China's first domestically designed and built aircraft carrier © Kyodo
It is perhaps no surprise then that China's rivals in the South China Sea do not yet regard the nascent Indo-Pacific alliance-building as something to pin their hopes on when it comes to control of the sea.
“We are witnessing the great power shift toward Asia-Pacific with the 'Indo-Pacific strategy,' Belt and Road Initiative and a series of country grouping[s] in the region,” Lich said, cautioning that “the outcomes for the region and the world are somewhat yet to be unveiled.”
Lich's Philippine counterpart was even more circumspect, particularly regarding the Indo-Pacific concept. “I have to study it some more,” Lorenzana said. “This is a new construct in this area.”
Nikkei staff writers Mikhail Flores in Manila and Atsushi Tomiyama in Hanoi contributed to this article.
Trump blasts Theresa May in interview a day before meeting - NBC News
Trump blasts Theresa May in interview a day before meeting
The American president did, however, have some nice things to say about Queen Elizabeth II.
by Phil McCausland / Jul.13.2018 / 9:22 AM ET / Updated Jul.13.2018 / 5:15 PM ET
President Trump arrives in UK to meet with Prime Minister May and Queen
JUL.13.201801:23
President Donald Trump continued to attack America's European allies on Thursday — this time aiming at the United Kingdom's Prime Minister Theresa May a day before they are due to meet in London.
British tabloid newspaper The Sun published an interview with Trump on Thursday, where the president blasted May's Brexit negotiations, as well as European immigration policy, NATO and London Mayor Sadiq Khan.
Trump said that May’s plan for a "soft Brexit" could scuttle an American trade deal with the U.K. because the island nation would remain too close with the European Union.
"We are cracking down right now on the European Union because they have not treated the United States fairly on trading," Trump said. "No, if they do that, I would say that would probably end a major trade relationship with the United States."
In the interview, Trump insisted that he would have negotiated the deal differently than May, and he said that he had provided the prime minister his "views on what she should do and how she should negotiate."
"I would have done it much differently. I actually told Theresa May how to do it but she didn’t agree, she didn’t listen to me. She wanted to go a different route," he said.
Trump trashes UK PM's Brexit plan & then meets her for dinner
JUL.13.201804:59
"I would actually say she probably went the opposite way," Trump said. "If you really look, she probably went the opposite way. And that’s fine. She should negotiate the best way she knows how. But it is too bad what’s going on."
Trump backtracks after criticism of British Prime Minister May
Trump: ‘I didn’t criticize’ Theresa May, says she’s doing ‘a terrific job’
But Trump declined to provide any details about the advice he provided May.
White House press secretary Sarah Sanders later issued a statement, saying Trump “likes and respects Prime Minister May very much."
She wrote: “As he said in his interview with the Sun she ‘is a very good person’ and he ‘never said anything bad about her.’ He thought she was great on NATO today and is a really terrific person."
The president also praised Boris Johnson, who just resigned as Britain's foreign secretary earlier this week because he did not approve of May’s negotiations over Brexit.
Theresa May addresses Boris Johnson resignation over Brexit plan
JUL.10.201802:06
Trump even asserted that Johnson, a New York-born former mayor of London, "would be a great prime minister."
He said: "I think he’s a great representative for your country."
Trump also spoke on immigration policy in the interview, saying that Europe was losing its identity and culture because of an influx of migrants.
"Allowing the immigration to take place in Europe is a shame," Trump said. "I think it changed the fabric of Europe. And unless you act very quickly it’s never going to be what it was and I don’t mean that in a positive way. So I think allowing millions and millions of people to come in to Europe is very, very sad. I think you are losing your culture."
Trump conflated immigration and terrorism in the interview, and he said that Khan, London’s mayor, had done a "terrible job."
Trump also blasted Londoners in general, for protesting his arrival in England, and said that he "used to love London as a city," but added "when they make you feel unwelcome, why would I stay there?"
He did, however, praise the Queen Elizabeth II, whom he is scheduled to meet on Friday.
"If you think of it, for so many years she’s represented her country, she’s never really made a mistake," he said. "You don’t see, like, anything embarrassing. She’s just an incredible woman. My wife is a tremendous fan of hers. She’s got a great and beautiful grace about her."
The American president did, however, have some nice things to say about Queen Elizabeth II.
by Phil McCausland / Jul.13.2018 / 9:22 AM ET / Updated Jul.13.2018 / 5:15 PM ET
President Trump arrives in UK to meet with Prime Minister May and Queen
JUL.13.201801:23
President Donald Trump continued to attack America's European allies on Thursday — this time aiming at the United Kingdom's Prime Minister Theresa May a day before they are due to meet in London.
British tabloid newspaper The Sun published an interview with Trump on Thursday, where the president blasted May's Brexit negotiations, as well as European immigration policy, NATO and London Mayor Sadiq Khan.
Trump said that May’s plan for a "soft Brexit" could scuttle an American trade deal with the U.K. because the island nation would remain too close with the European Union.
"We are cracking down right now on the European Union because they have not treated the United States fairly on trading," Trump said. "No, if they do that, I would say that would probably end a major trade relationship with the United States."
In the interview, Trump insisted that he would have negotiated the deal differently than May, and he said that he had provided the prime minister his "views on what she should do and how she should negotiate."
"I would have done it much differently. I actually told Theresa May how to do it but she didn’t agree, she didn’t listen to me. She wanted to go a different route," he said.
Trump trashes UK PM's Brexit plan & then meets her for dinner
JUL.13.201804:59
"I would actually say she probably went the opposite way," Trump said. "If you really look, she probably went the opposite way. And that’s fine. She should negotiate the best way she knows how. But it is too bad what’s going on."
Trump backtracks after criticism of British Prime Minister May
Trump: ‘I didn’t criticize’ Theresa May, says she’s doing ‘a terrific job’
But Trump declined to provide any details about the advice he provided May.
White House press secretary Sarah Sanders later issued a statement, saying Trump “likes and respects Prime Minister May very much."
She wrote: “As he said in his interview with the Sun she ‘is a very good person’ and he ‘never said anything bad about her.’ He thought she was great on NATO today and is a really terrific person."
The president also praised Boris Johnson, who just resigned as Britain's foreign secretary earlier this week because he did not approve of May’s negotiations over Brexit.
Theresa May addresses Boris Johnson resignation over Brexit plan
JUL.10.201802:06
Trump even asserted that Johnson, a New York-born former mayor of London, "would be a great prime minister."
He said: "I think he’s a great representative for your country."
Trump also spoke on immigration policy in the interview, saying that Europe was losing its identity and culture because of an influx of migrants.
"Allowing the immigration to take place in Europe is a shame," Trump said. "I think it changed the fabric of Europe. And unless you act very quickly it’s never going to be what it was and I don’t mean that in a positive way. So I think allowing millions and millions of people to come in to Europe is very, very sad. I think you are losing your culture."
Trump conflated immigration and terrorism in the interview, and he said that Khan, London’s mayor, had done a "terrible job."
Trump also blasted Londoners in general, for protesting his arrival in England, and said that he "used to love London as a city," but added "when they make you feel unwelcome, why would I stay there?"
He did, however, praise the Queen Elizabeth II, whom he is scheduled to meet on Friday.
"If you think of it, for so many years she’s represented her country, she’s never really made a mistake," he said. "You don’t see, like, anything embarrassing. She’s just an incredible woman. My wife is a tremendous fan of hers. She’s got a great and beautiful grace about her."
Trump criticises Obama over US 2016 election hack - BBC News
Trump criticises Obama over US 2016 election hack
14 July 2018
The leaders will reportedly discuss US-Russia relations and national security issues on Monday
US President Donald Trump has criticised the administration of his predecessor Barack Obama over alleged Russian hacking to help him win the 2016 presidential election.
"Why didn't they do something about it?" he tweeted, adding that Mr Obama had been told about it before the vote.
It follows pressure on Mr Trump to cancel Monday's talks with Russia's Vladimir Putin following the indictment of 12 Russians on Friday.
Russia denies allegations of hacking.
Mr Trump is due to meet Mr Putin in the Finnish capital Helsinki.
Russia said it was looking forward to the meeting.
"We consider Trump a negotiating partner," said Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov. "The state of bilateral relations is very bad. We have to start to set them right."
Four intriguing lines in Mueller charges
Who's who in Trump-Russia drama?
However the hacking allegations have sparked a heated war of words between Washington and Moscow.
US Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein insisted that "the goal of the conspirators was to have an impact on the election".
But Russia's foreign ministry said the claims were a "heap of conspiracy schemes" intended to "damage the atmosphere" before Monday's summit.
It said there was no evidence linking any of the dozen officials to hacking or military intelligence.
What are the allegations?
The 11-count indictment names the Russians defendants, alleging they began cyber-attacks in March 2016 on the email accounts of staff for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign.
They are accused of using keystroke reading software to spy on the chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and hack into the party's computers.
Mr Rosenstein said the conspirators used fictitious online personas, including "DCLeaks" and "Guccifer 2.0", to release thousands of stolen emails.
They are also accused of stealing the data of half a million voters from a state election board website.
What pressure is there to cancel the talks?
During a joint news conference with UK Prime Minister Theresa May on Friday, Mr Trump said he would "absolutely" ask the Russian president about alleged election meddling.
But top Democrats have urged him to cancel the planned summit altogether following the indictment.
"President Trump should absolutely cancel this meeting with Putin on Monday," said DNC chairman Tom Perez. "He is not a friend of the United States."
"President Trump should cancel his meeting with Vladimir Putin until Russia takes demonstrable and transparent steps to prove that they won't interfere in future elections," said Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer.
All you need to know about Mueller inquiry
On the Republican side, Senator John McCain said the summit "should not move forward" unless the president "is prepared to hold Putin accountable".
Putin laughs at political chaos in US
What's the big picture?
Special Counsel Robert Mueller is investigating US intelligence findings that Russians conspired to sway the 2016 election in Mr Trump's favour.
As of Friday, the inquiry has indicted 32 people - mostly Russian nationals in absentia - as well as three companies and four former Trump advisers.
None of the charges allege Trump advisers colluded with Russia to interfere with the presidential campaign.
18 revelations from Wikileaks emails
Why US fears Russia is hacking election
Former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and George Papadopoulos, a former foreign policy adviser, have pleaded guilty to making false statements about their contacts with Russians.
Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his deputy Rick Gates were charged with money laundering relating to their political consultancy work in Ukraine.
14 July 2018
The leaders will reportedly discuss US-Russia relations and national security issues on Monday
US President Donald Trump has criticised the administration of his predecessor Barack Obama over alleged Russian hacking to help him win the 2016 presidential election.
"Why didn't they do something about it?" he tweeted, adding that Mr Obama had been told about it before the vote.
It follows pressure on Mr Trump to cancel Monday's talks with Russia's Vladimir Putin following the indictment of 12 Russians on Friday.
Russia denies allegations of hacking.
Mr Trump is due to meet Mr Putin in the Finnish capital Helsinki.
Russia said it was looking forward to the meeting.
"We consider Trump a negotiating partner," said Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov. "The state of bilateral relations is very bad. We have to start to set them right."
Four intriguing lines in Mueller charges
Who's who in Trump-Russia drama?
However the hacking allegations have sparked a heated war of words between Washington and Moscow.
US Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein insisted that "the goal of the conspirators was to have an impact on the election".
But Russia's foreign ministry said the claims were a "heap of conspiracy schemes" intended to "damage the atmosphere" before Monday's summit.
It said there was no evidence linking any of the dozen officials to hacking or military intelligence.
What are the allegations?
The 11-count indictment names the Russians defendants, alleging they began cyber-attacks in March 2016 on the email accounts of staff for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign.
They are accused of using keystroke reading software to spy on the chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and hack into the party's computers.
Mr Rosenstein said the conspirators used fictitious online personas, including "DCLeaks" and "Guccifer 2.0", to release thousands of stolen emails.
They are also accused of stealing the data of half a million voters from a state election board website.
What pressure is there to cancel the talks?
During a joint news conference with UK Prime Minister Theresa May on Friday, Mr Trump said he would "absolutely" ask the Russian president about alleged election meddling.
But top Democrats have urged him to cancel the planned summit altogether following the indictment.
"President Trump should absolutely cancel this meeting with Putin on Monday," said DNC chairman Tom Perez. "He is not a friend of the United States."
"President Trump should cancel his meeting with Vladimir Putin until Russia takes demonstrable and transparent steps to prove that they won't interfere in future elections," said Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer.
All you need to know about Mueller inquiry
On the Republican side, Senator John McCain said the summit "should not move forward" unless the president "is prepared to hold Putin accountable".
Putin laughs at political chaos in US
What's the big picture?
Special Counsel Robert Mueller is investigating US intelligence findings that Russians conspired to sway the 2016 election in Mr Trump's favour.
As of Friday, the inquiry has indicted 32 people - mostly Russian nationals in absentia - as well as three companies and four former Trump advisers.
None of the charges allege Trump advisers colluded with Russia to interfere with the presidential campaign.
18 revelations from Wikileaks emails
Why US fears Russia is hacking election
Former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and George Papadopoulos, a former foreign policy adviser, have pleaded guilty to making false statements about their contacts with Russians.
Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his deputy Rick Gates were charged with money laundering relating to their political consultancy work in Ukraine.
Friday, July 13, 2018
China Vows to Retaliate Against the Trump Administration’s Threat of Another $200 Billion in Tariffs - TIME
China Vows to Retaliate Against the Trump Administration’s Threat of Another $200 Billion in Tariffs
Posted: 11 Jul 2018 07:06 PM PDT
(BEIJING) — China’s government vowed Wednesday to take “firm and forceful measures” as the U.S. threatened to expand tariffs to thousands of Chinese imports like fish sticks, apples and French doors, the latest salvo in an escalating trade dispute that threatens to chill global economic growth.
China gave no details, but it has plenty of options to retaliate that could extend beyond additional tariffs on U.S. imports. There are fears that Beijing could attempt to disrupt operations of American automakers, retailers and others that see China as a key market.
The spiraling conflict stems from Washington’s complaint that Beijing steals or pressures companies to hand over technology and concerns that plans for state-led development of Chinese champions in robots and other fields might erode American industrial leadership.
A possible second round of tariff hikes announced Tuesday by the U.S. Trade Representative targets a $200 billion list of Chinese goods. That came four days after Washington added 25 percent duties on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods and Beijing responded by increasing taxes on the same amount of American imports.
The abrupt escalation is “totally unacceptable,” said a Commerce Ministry statement. It said Beijing would take unspecified “necessary countermeasures” to protect its “core interests.”
Asked what Beijing would do, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying gave no details but said, “We will take firm and forceful measures.”
The USTR, the federal agency that oversees international trade policy and negotiations, said it was responding to Beijing’s decision to retaliate instead of changing its policies. President Donald Trump has threatened higher tariffs on more than $500 billion of goods, or nearly all of China’s annual exports to the United States.
The USTR will accept public comments on the latest round of tariffs and hold hearings Aug. 20-23 before reaching a decision after Aug. 31, according to a senior U.S. official who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity.
The first U.S. tariff list focused on Chinese industrial products, an attempt to reduce the direct impact on American consumers.
The new list includes vacuum cleaners, furniture, auto and bicycle parts, French doors and plywood. It left untouched U.S.-branded smartphones and laptop computers.
That “will hit the Chinese export sector hard,” said Rajiv Biswas of IHS Markit in a report.
China imports far less from the U.S. than the U.S. imports from China. That means China’s imports of U.S. goods are so small that Beijing “cannot match fresh U.S. tariffs,” said Vishnu Varathan of Mizuho Bank in a report.
China bought $130 billion of U.S. goods last year. Both governments have raised tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other’s goods and already said they are considering additional charges on another $16 billion. That would leave China only $80 billion for further retaliation.
Instead, Beijing has other ways to disrupt American companies’ operations. Regulators can deny or cancel licenses or launch lengthy tax, environmental or anti-monopoly investigations.
Companies are watching U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm Inc., which has waited months for Chinese regulators to decide whether to allow its proposed $44 billion acquisition of NXP Semiconductors. All other major governments have approved the deal.
The economic impact of the conflict already is spreading.
The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said this week its member companies are rearranging the global flow of their goods to make sure any bound for the United States don’t pass through China.
Members of Congress are increasingly questioning Trump’s tactics. They warned tariffs on imports raise consumer prices and expose U.S. farmers and manufacturers to retaliation.
“Tonight’s announcement appears reckless and is not a targeted approach,” said Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch in a statement.
Envoys from the two sides last met June 3 when Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross visited Beijing for talks with Vice Premier Liu He. They have given no indication when they might meet again.
Chinese leaders have tried without success to recruit support from Europe and other governments. They criticize Trump’s tactics but share U.S. complaints about Beijing’s industrial policies.
Investors had been taking the trade war in stride but Tuesday’s announcement appeared to dent that optimism.
On Wednesday, China’s main stock index lost 1.8 percent and Japan’s market benchmark fell 1.1 percent. Hong Kong’s main index shed 1.3 percent.
The conflict is “far from over,” warned Hannah Anderson of JP Morgan Asset Management in a report, “and the impact will be global.”
London mayor says the UK is not afraid to call out Trump: ‘We think you’re wrong’ - CNBC News
London mayor says the UK is not afraid to call out Trump: ‘We think you’re wrong’
“The great thing about our city is you can have a fraternal and positive relationship with a country and its citizens but disagree in a mature and adult way with the president,” London Mayor Sadiq Khan told CNBC’s Wilfred Frost on Friday morning.
Shortly after arriving in the U.K. on Thursday afternoon, Trump sought to reignite a long-running feud with London’s mayor.
The U.S. president has decided not to tour the U.K.’s capital city during his working visit after hundreds of thousands of Britons vowed to take to the streets to protest against him.
Sam Meredith | @smeredith19
Published July 13, 2018
CNBC.com
President Donald Trump should understand the U.K. will always be prepared to challenge his views in a respectful way — regardless of whether his feelings get hurt, London Mayor Sadiq Khan told CNBC Friday.
“The great thing about our city is you can have a fraternal and positive relationship with a country and its citizens but disagree in a mature and adult way with the president,” London Mayor Sadiq Khan told CNBC’s Wilfred Frost on Friday morning.
“One of the great things about having a best friend as we do with America is we can call you out when we think you’re wrong … I think we shouldn’t be afraid of doing so,” he added.
The U.S. president is currently visiting the U.K. as part of a working visit to meet with Prime Minister Theresa May, Queen Elizabeth II and several other business leaders. He is then expected to travel to Scotland for a weekend of golf.
Long-running feud
Shortly after arriving in the U.K. on Thursday afternoon, Trump sought to reignite a long-running feud with London’s mayor.
“Take a look at the terrorism that is taking place. Look at what is going on in London. I think (Khan) has done a very bad job on terrorism,” Trump told The Sun newspaper in an interview published late Thursday.
“I used to love London as a city. I haven’t been there in a long time … But when they make you feel unwelcome, why would I stay there?”
The U.S. president has decided not to tour the U.K.’s capital city during his working visit after hundreds of thousands of Britons vowed to take to the streets to protest against him.
The main “Stop Trump” rally is expected to attract around 70,000 people on the streets of London on Friday.
Khan: Trump’s presidency is ‘interesting’
When asked what one word he would use to describe Trump’s time in office, Khan replied: “Interesting.”
He went onto add: “It is not for me to respond to the tweets President Trump sends or some of the interviews he gives where he mentions me and he talks about me in ways which I find surprising.”
Meanwhile, a “Trump Baby” blimp was seen flying beside U.K. Parliament on Friday morning, after organizers raised more than £30,000 ($40,000) to pay for its manufacture and inflation.
A 20-foot-tall blimp depicting President Donald Trump as a baby in London on Friday July 13, 2018.
CNBC's Hollie Wong
A 20-foot-tall blimp depicting President Donald Trump as a baby in London on Friday July 13, 2018.
Khan has since defended his decision to grant permission for it to be flown as part of a protest against Trump’s visit.
The balloon depicting the U.S. leader as giant baby is tethered to the grounds of Parliament Square Gardens and will be restricted from floating higher than 30 meters (98 feet). It will fly between 9:30 a.m. and 11:30 a.m London time.
“The great thing about our city is you can have a fraternal and positive relationship with a country and its citizens but disagree in a mature and adult way with the president,” London Mayor Sadiq Khan told CNBC’s Wilfred Frost on Friday morning.
Shortly after arriving in the U.K. on Thursday afternoon, Trump sought to reignite a long-running feud with London’s mayor.
The U.S. president has decided not to tour the U.K.’s capital city during his working visit after hundreds of thousands of Britons vowed to take to the streets to protest against him.
Sam Meredith | @smeredith19
Published July 13, 2018
CNBC.com
President Donald Trump should understand the U.K. will always be prepared to challenge his views in a respectful way — regardless of whether his feelings get hurt, London Mayor Sadiq Khan told CNBC Friday.
“The great thing about our city is you can have a fraternal and positive relationship with a country and its citizens but disagree in a mature and adult way with the president,” London Mayor Sadiq Khan told CNBC’s Wilfred Frost on Friday morning.
“One of the great things about having a best friend as we do with America is we can call you out when we think you’re wrong … I think we shouldn’t be afraid of doing so,” he added.
The U.S. president is currently visiting the U.K. as part of a working visit to meet with Prime Minister Theresa May, Queen Elizabeth II and several other business leaders. He is then expected to travel to Scotland for a weekend of golf.
Long-running feud
Shortly after arriving in the U.K. on Thursday afternoon, Trump sought to reignite a long-running feud with London’s mayor.
“Take a look at the terrorism that is taking place. Look at what is going on in London. I think (Khan) has done a very bad job on terrorism,” Trump told The Sun newspaper in an interview published late Thursday.
“I used to love London as a city. I haven’t been there in a long time … But when they make you feel unwelcome, why would I stay there?”
The U.S. president has decided not to tour the U.K.’s capital city during his working visit after hundreds of thousands of Britons vowed to take to the streets to protest against him.
The main “Stop Trump” rally is expected to attract around 70,000 people on the streets of London on Friday.
Khan: Trump’s presidency is ‘interesting’
When asked what one word he would use to describe Trump’s time in office, Khan replied: “Interesting.”
He went onto add: “It is not for me to respond to the tweets President Trump sends or some of the interviews he gives where he mentions me and he talks about me in ways which I find surprising.”
Meanwhile, a “Trump Baby” blimp was seen flying beside U.K. Parliament on Friday morning, after organizers raised more than £30,000 ($40,000) to pay for its manufacture and inflation.
A 20-foot-tall blimp depicting President Donald Trump as a baby in London on Friday July 13, 2018.
CNBC's Hollie Wong
A 20-foot-tall blimp depicting President Donald Trump as a baby in London on Friday July 13, 2018.
Khan has since defended his decision to grant permission for it to be flown as part of a protest against Trump’s visit.
The balloon depicting the U.S. leader as giant baby is tethered to the grounds of Parliament Square Gardens and will be restricted from floating higher than 30 meters (98 feet). It will fly between 9:30 a.m. and 11:30 a.m London time.
Just wait – Trump's trade war will soon have fallout - Guardian
Just wait – Trump's trade war will soon have fallout
Barry Eichengreen
As with Brexit, the economic effects of uncertainty over tariffs will take time to appear
Fri 13 Jul 2018 19.16 AEST Last modified on Fri 13 Jul 2018 19.35 AEST
An employee welds the joint on a steel pipe at the SAW Pipe Mills
Donald Trump’s trade war, which began with steel and aluminium tariffs, may end up having wider economic fallout. Photograph: Bloomberg via Getty Images
Donald Trump’s phony, blowhard’s trade war just got real.
The steel and aluminium tariffs that the Trump administration imposed at the beginning of June were important mainly for their symbolic value, not for their real economic impact. While the tariffs signified that the US was no longer playing by the rules of the world trading system, they targeted just $45bn of imports, less than 0.25% of GDP in an $18.5tn US economy.
On 6 July, however, an additional 25% tariff on $34bn of Chinese exports went into effect, and China retaliated against an equivalent volume of US exports. An angry Trump has ordered the US trade representative to draw up a list of additional Chinese goods, worth more than $400bn, that could be taxed, and China again vowed to retaliate. Trump has also threatened to impose tariffs on $350bn worth of imported motor vehicles and parts. If he does, the EU and others could retaliate against an equal amount of US exports.
Could Trump's tariff race shift the global economic balance?
Mohamed El-Erian
We are now talking about real money: nearly $1tn of US imports and an equivalent amount of US export sales and foreign investments.
The mystery is why the economic and financial fallout from this escalation has been so limited. The US economy is humming along. The purchasing managers’ index was up again in June. Wall Street has wobbled, but there has been nothing resembling its sharp negative reaction to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930. Emerging markets have suffered capital outflows and currency weakness, but this is more a consequence of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes than of any announcements emanating from the White House.
There are three possible explanations. First, purchasing managers and stock market investors may be betting that sanity will yet prevail. They may be hoping that Trump’s threats are just bluster, or that the objections of the US Chamber of Commerce and other business groups will ultimately register.
But this ignores the fact that Trump’s tariff talk is wildly popular with his base. One recent poll found that 66% of Republican voters backed Trump’s threatened tariffs against China. Trump ran in 2016 on a protectionist vow that he would no longer allow other countries to “take advantage” of the US. His voters expect him to deliver on that promise, and he knows it.
Second, the markets may be betting that Trump is right when he says that trade wars are easy to win. Other countries that depend on exports to the US may conclude that it is in their interest to back down. In early July, the European commission was reportedly contemplating a tariff-cutting deal to address Trump’s complaint that the EU taxes American cars at four times the rate the US taxes European vehicles.
But China shows no willingness to buckle under US pressure. Canada, that politest of countries, is similarly unwilling to be bullied; it has retaliated with 25% tariffs on $12bn of US goods. And the EU would contemplate concessions only if the US offers some in return – such as eliminating its prohibitive tariffs on imported light pick-up trucks and vans – and only if other exporters like Japan and South Korea go along.
Third, it could be that the macroeconomic effects of even the full panoply of US tariffs, together with foreign retaliation, are relatively small. Leading models of the US economy, in particular, imply that a 10% increase in the cost of imported goods will lead to a one-time increase in inflation of at most 0.7%.
This is simply the law of iterated fractions at work. Imports are 15% of US GDP. Multiply 0.15 by 0.10 (the hypothesised tariff rate), and you get 1.5%. Allow for some substitution away from more expensive imported goods, and the number drops below 1%. And if growth slows because of the higher cost of imported intermediate inputs, the Fed can offset this by raising interest rates more slowly. Foreign central banks can do likewise.
Still, one worries, because the standard economic models are notoriously bad at capturing the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty, which trade wars create with a vengeance. Investment plans are made in advance, so it may take, say, a year for the impact of that uncertainty to materialise – as was the case in the UK following the 2016 Brexit referendum. Taxing intermediate inputs will hurt efficiency, while shifting resources away from dynamic hi-tech sectors in favour of old-line manufacturing will depress productivity growth, with further negative implications for investment. And these are outcomes that the Fed cannot easily offset.
So, for those who observe that the economic and financial fallout from Trump’s trade war has been surprisingly small, the best response is: just wait.
• Barry Eichengreen is professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund.
Barry Eichengreen
As with Brexit, the economic effects of uncertainty over tariffs will take time to appear
Fri 13 Jul 2018 19.16 AEST Last modified on Fri 13 Jul 2018 19.35 AEST
An employee welds the joint on a steel pipe at the SAW Pipe Mills
Donald Trump’s trade war, which began with steel and aluminium tariffs, may end up having wider economic fallout. Photograph: Bloomberg via Getty Images
Donald Trump’s phony, blowhard’s trade war just got real.
The steel and aluminium tariffs that the Trump administration imposed at the beginning of June were important mainly for their symbolic value, not for their real economic impact. While the tariffs signified that the US was no longer playing by the rules of the world trading system, they targeted just $45bn of imports, less than 0.25% of GDP in an $18.5tn US economy.
On 6 July, however, an additional 25% tariff on $34bn of Chinese exports went into effect, and China retaliated against an equivalent volume of US exports. An angry Trump has ordered the US trade representative to draw up a list of additional Chinese goods, worth more than $400bn, that could be taxed, and China again vowed to retaliate. Trump has also threatened to impose tariffs on $350bn worth of imported motor vehicles and parts. If he does, the EU and others could retaliate against an equal amount of US exports.
Could Trump's tariff race shift the global economic balance?
Mohamed El-Erian
We are now talking about real money: nearly $1tn of US imports and an equivalent amount of US export sales and foreign investments.
The mystery is why the economic and financial fallout from this escalation has been so limited. The US economy is humming along. The purchasing managers’ index was up again in June. Wall Street has wobbled, but there has been nothing resembling its sharp negative reaction to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930. Emerging markets have suffered capital outflows and currency weakness, but this is more a consequence of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes than of any announcements emanating from the White House.
There are three possible explanations. First, purchasing managers and stock market investors may be betting that sanity will yet prevail. They may be hoping that Trump’s threats are just bluster, or that the objections of the US Chamber of Commerce and other business groups will ultimately register.
But this ignores the fact that Trump’s tariff talk is wildly popular with his base. One recent poll found that 66% of Republican voters backed Trump’s threatened tariffs against China. Trump ran in 2016 on a protectionist vow that he would no longer allow other countries to “take advantage” of the US. His voters expect him to deliver on that promise, and he knows it.
Second, the markets may be betting that Trump is right when he says that trade wars are easy to win. Other countries that depend on exports to the US may conclude that it is in their interest to back down. In early July, the European commission was reportedly contemplating a tariff-cutting deal to address Trump’s complaint that the EU taxes American cars at four times the rate the US taxes European vehicles.
But China shows no willingness to buckle under US pressure. Canada, that politest of countries, is similarly unwilling to be bullied; it has retaliated with 25% tariffs on $12bn of US goods. And the EU would contemplate concessions only if the US offers some in return – such as eliminating its prohibitive tariffs on imported light pick-up trucks and vans – and only if other exporters like Japan and South Korea go along.
Third, it could be that the macroeconomic effects of even the full panoply of US tariffs, together with foreign retaliation, are relatively small. Leading models of the US economy, in particular, imply that a 10% increase in the cost of imported goods will lead to a one-time increase in inflation of at most 0.7%.
This is simply the law of iterated fractions at work. Imports are 15% of US GDP. Multiply 0.15 by 0.10 (the hypothesised tariff rate), and you get 1.5%. Allow for some substitution away from more expensive imported goods, and the number drops below 1%. And if growth slows because of the higher cost of imported intermediate inputs, the Fed can offset this by raising interest rates more slowly. Foreign central banks can do likewise.
Still, one worries, because the standard economic models are notoriously bad at capturing the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty, which trade wars create with a vengeance. Investment plans are made in advance, so it may take, say, a year for the impact of that uncertainty to materialise – as was the case in the UK following the 2016 Brexit referendum. Taxing intermediate inputs will hurt efficiency, while shifting resources away from dynamic hi-tech sectors in favour of old-line manufacturing will depress productivity growth, with further negative implications for investment. And these are outcomes that the Fed cannot easily offset.
So, for those who observe that the economic and financial fallout from Trump’s trade war has been surprisingly small, the best response is: just wait.
• Barry Eichengreen is professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund.
China industrial park explosion kills 19 - BBC News
July 13, 2018
China industrial park explosion kills 19
The blast occurred at a plant which makes chemicals for the food and pharmaceutical industries
An explosion at an industrial park in China's Sichuan province has left 19 people dead and 12 others injured, officials say.
In a statement quoted by Reuters, the authorities in Jiang'an county said the blast happened at a chemical plant run by Yibin Hengda Technology.
Photos on Chinese social media showed a huge fire and plumes of smoke rising from the facility.
It is not clear what caused the explosion.
According to Xinhua the fire, which broke out on Thursday evening, had been put out early on Friday. Those injured in the blast were in a stable condition.
Authorities have begun an investigation, the news agency said.
The cause of the blast is not yet known
Yibin Hengda makes chemicals for the food and pharmaceutical industries.
According to local media reports, the three-storey buildings of the factory burnt down to their steel frames and nearby buildings had their windows shattered.
The accident follows previous high-profile disasters at chemical plants in China.
In 2015, 173 people died in an explosion at a chemical warehouse in the north-eastern port city of Tianjin.
An official investigation into the blast found that corruption, political connections and official collusion allowed corners to be cut and safety systems to be overridden.
China industrial park explosion kills 19
The blast occurred at a plant which makes chemicals for the food and pharmaceutical industries
An explosion at an industrial park in China's Sichuan province has left 19 people dead and 12 others injured, officials say.
In a statement quoted by Reuters, the authorities in Jiang'an county said the blast happened at a chemical plant run by Yibin Hengda Technology.
Photos on Chinese social media showed a huge fire and plumes of smoke rising from the facility.
It is not clear what caused the explosion.
According to Xinhua the fire, which broke out on Thursday evening, had been put out early on Friday. Those injured in the blast were in a stable condition.
Authorities have begun an investigation, the news agency said.
The cause of the blast is not yet known
Yibin Hengda makes chemicals for the food and pharmaceutical industries.
According to local media reports, the three-storey buildings of the factory burnt down to their steel frames and nearby buildings had their windows shattered.
The accident follows previous high-profile disasters at chemical plants in China.
In 2015, 173 people died in an explosion at a chemical warehouse in the north-eastern port city of Tianjin.
An official investigation into the blast found that corruption, political connections and official collusion allowed corners to be cut and safety systems to be overridden.
Why Brussels is keeping quiet on May's White Paper - BBc News
July 13, 2018
Why Brussels is keeping quiet on May's White Paper
Katya Adler
Europe editor
@BBCkatyaadler on Twitter
PM Theresa May has set out her plans for Brexit - but EU bigwigs are in no hurry to comment for now
Even the president of the United States now sees fit to weigh in on the Brexit path Theresa May is taking.
Donald Trump has said, amongst other things, that if the prime minister is successful in her plan - formalised on Thursday in a White Paper - then that would make a future trade deal with the US far less likely.
So how come key player Brussels remains so uncannily quiet about the paper?
Brussels badgered the UK for months and months and months about coming up with a detailed proposal on how it envisions the future EU-UK relationship after Brexit. Now they have it, surely they have an opinion about it?
As far as official responses go, the most we got from Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, was that he and his colleagues now need time to analyse the White Paper in detail.
On the one hand: fair enough. It is a very dense document.
But I feel the EU is hiding behind the paper's 98 pages of Brexit tech-talk.
In private, EU diplomats make no secret at all of their rejection of large chunks of the White Paper.
Plan 'delivers the Brexit UK voted for' - May
Trump: Brexit plan could kill US trade deal
Brussels has said since the beginning of Brexit negotiations that the UK can't pick and choose the "best parts" of EU membership and walk away from the rest when it leaves. Yet that's exactly how the White Paper is interpreted in EU circles.
There is no way Michel Barnier will accept it as is.
Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, must calculate the best time to criticise the White Paper
For Theresa May to get that "deep and special" access to the EU in trade terms, Brussels will certainly expect more concessions. But EU leaders are biding their time. Trying to calculate not if, but when, and how to get their criticisms across.
They're very aware of the febrile political atmosphere in the UK and think if they make a quick comment or criticism of the White Paper, they'd be adding fuel to the fire.
So if the EU is so keen for a soft Brexit - (of course we know, deep down, it would prefer no Brexit at all) - what concessions is Brussels prepared to make now to help shore up the prime minister's position in the political maelstrom at home?
Worryingly few, is the answer if you're a fan of Theresa May or her White Paper.
The EU still believes it holds pretty much all the cards in Brexit negotiations. I don't expect real whiffs of EU concessions before the last minute of the 11th hour this autumn.
Can Theresa May hang on till then? And if she can, is she politically strong enough to strike a deal with Brussels and then sell it back home?
Frankly, no one knows - and in the meantime, Brussels is stepping up contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit. Not because the EU or Downing Street wants that - they really do not - but because the time allotted under EU law for a withdrawal agreement to be agreed and signed off by both parties is fast running out.
In the meantime, EU diplomats try to sound upbeat: the White Paper is a great springboard from which to re-start face-to-face Brexit negotiations, they say.
Those talks begin again behind closed doors on Monday.
Why Brussels is keeping quiet on May's White Paper
Katya Adler
Europe editor
@BBCkatyaadler on Twitter
PM Theresa May has set out her plans for Brexit - but EU bigwigs are in no hurry to comment for now
Even the president of the United States now sees fit to weigh in on the Brexit path Theresa May is taking.
Donald Trump has said, amongst other things, that if the prime minister is successful in her plan - formalised on Thursday in a White Paper - then that would make a future trade deal with the US far less likely.
So how come key player Brussels remains so uncannily quiet about the paper?
Brussels badgered the UK for months and months and months about coming up with a detailed proposal on how it envisions the future EU-UK relationship after Brexit. Now they have it, surely they have an opinion about it?
As far as official responses go, the most we got from Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, was that he and his colleagues now need time to analyse the White Paper in detail.
On the one hand: fair enough. It is a very dense document.
But I feel the EU is hiding behind the paper's 98 pages of Brexit tech-talk.
In private, EU diplomats make no secret at all of their rejection of large chunks of the White Paper.
Plan 'delivers the Brexit UK voted for' - May
Trump: Brexit plan could kill US trade deal
Brussels has said since the beginning of Brexit negotiations that the UK can't pick and choose the "best parts" of EU membership and walk away from the rest when it leaves. Yet that's exactly how the White Paper is interpreted in EU circles.
There is no way Michel Barnier will accept it as is.
Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, must calculate the best time to criticise the White Paper
For Theresa May to get that "deep and special" access to the EU in trade terms, Brussels will certainly expect more concessions. But EU leaders are biding their time. Trying to calculate not if, but when, and how to get their criticisms across.
They're very aware of the febrile political atmosphere in the UK and think if they make a quick comment or criticism of the White Paper, they'd be adding fuel to the fire.
So if the EU is so keen for a soft Brexit - (of course we know, deep down, it would prefer no Brexit at all) - what concessions is Brussels prepared to make now to help shore up the prime minister's position in the political maelstrom at home?
Worryingly few, is the answer if you're a fan of Theresa May or her White Paper.
The EU still believes it holds pretty much all the cards in Brexit negotiations. I don't expect real whiffs of EU concessions before the last minute of the 11th hour this autumn.
Can Theresa May hang on till then? And if she can, is she politically strong enough to strike a deal with Brussels and then sell it back home?
Frankly, no one knows - and in the meantime, Brussels is stepping up contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit. Not because the EU or Downing Street wants that - they really do not - but because the time allotted under EU law for a withdrawal agreement to be agreed and signed off by both parties is fast running out.
In the meantime, EU diplomats try to sound upbeat: the White Paper is a great springboard from which to re-start face-to-face Brexit negotiations, they say.
Those talks begin again behind closed doors on Monday.
Trump: Brexit plan 'will probably kill' US trade deal - BBC News
July 13, 2018
Trump: Brexit plan 'will probably kill' US trade deal
Mr Trump's interview comes as protesters - both anti and pro-Trump - prepare to march on Friday
Donald Trump has said the UK will "probably not" get a trade deal with the US, if the prime minister's Brexit plan goes ahead.
He told The Sun the PM's plan would "probably kill the deal" as it would mean the US "would be dealing with the European Union" instead of with the UK.
Downing Street has not yet reacted to Mr Trump's remarks.
Theresa May has been making the case for a US free trade deal with Mr Trump, on his first UK visit as president.
She said Brexit was an "unprecedented opportunity" to create growth in the UK and US.
Mr Trump also said that former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson - who disagrees with the PM on Brexit and resigned this week - would make a "great prime minister", adding "I think he's got what it takes".
In his interview, he also renewed his criticism of London Mayor Sadiq Khan over last year's terror attacks in London, saying he had done "a terrible job".
It comes ahead of a day of planned, and widespread, anti-Trump protests across the UK, including one in Parliament Square which involves a giant inflatable of Mr Trump as a baby. Some pro-Trump events are also taking place.
The US president and his wife, Melania, were given a red carpet reception at Blenheim Palace, Oxfordshire on Thursday evening.
They were at a black-tie dinner with Mrs May as news broke of his interview with the newspaper, which said it was conducted while he was in Brussels.
After it was published, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said the president "likes and respects Prime Minister May very much", adding that he had "never said anything bad about her".
Mays greet Trumps for UK black-tie dinner
Mr Trump - who has been a long-time supporter of Brexit - told The Sun that the UK's blueprint for its post-Brexit relations with the EU was "a much different deal than the people voted on".
He said the Brexit proposals Mrs May and her cabinet thrashed out at the PM's country house Chequers last week "would probably end a major trade relationship with the United States."
"We have enough difficulty with the European Union," he said, saying the EU has "not treated the United States fairly on trading".
'I told May how to do it'
He also said Mrs May had not listened to his advice on how to do a Brexit deal, saying: "I would have done it much differently.
"I actually told Theresa May how to do it but she didn't agree, she didn't listen to me. She wanted to go a different route," he said.
Tom Newton Dunn, the Sun journalist who interviewed Mr Trump, said the US president seemed "sensitive" and knew about the "Trump baby" inflatable.
"He's really quite stung by the criticism he's been getting," said Mr Newton Dunn. "He knew all about the baby blimp. I think it hurt him."
The Sun journalist who interviewed Donald Trump says the president "really cares" what people in Britain think of him.
The BBC's political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, said Mr Trump's interview had "driven a bulldozer" through Mrs May's claim that the UK would be able to get decent trade deals with the wider world, while sticking to the EU rules.
But Foreign Office minister Sir Alan Duncan said things had "moved on" since Mr Trump's interview - which was carried out before he arrived in the UK - and the mood at Thursday night's dinner was "fantastically positive and did focus a lot on trade".
The government does not see Mr Trump's behaviour as "rude", said Sir Alan, adding: "Donald Trump is a controversialist. That's his style."
Trump raises questions over Brexit plans
How we're welcoming Donald Trump to the UK
Queen and US presidents through history
And Chancellor Philip Hammond said he is sure there will be "very positive" talks between Mr Trump and the PM later today.
Protesters near Blenheim Palace making their feelings known on Thursday
Mayor of London Sadiq Khan defended his decision to allow the giant Trump baby inflatable to fly over London, saying: "The idea that we limit the right to protest because it might cause offence to a foreign leader is a slippery slope".
And, responding to Mr Trump's criticism of his response to terrorism, Mr Khan said it was "interesting" that he "is not criticising the mayors of other cities" which have also experienced terror attacks.
Meanwhile, Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry said the PM "should be standing up to [Mr Trump]" after he "slagged her off", instead of holding his hand.
Mr Trump briefly held Mrs May's hand as they went up the stairs
Mr Trump's comments came on the same day the UK government published its proposal for its long-term relationship with the EU.
The plan is aimed at ensuring trade co-operation, with no hard border for Northern Ireland, and global trade deals for the UK. Mrs May said the plan "absolutely delivers on the Brexit we voted for".
But after ministers reached an agreement on the plan at Chequers a week ago, leading Brexiteers Boris Johnson and David Davis resigned from the cabinet.
Reality Check: The rules on protest balloons
'Trump Baby' balloon banned from Turnberry
Why US presidents love the home of golf
Some of Mr Trump's supporters and protesters have been explaining their motivation
Mrs May and Mr Trump are watching a joint counter-terrorism exercise by British and US special forces at a military base.
The pair will then travel to Chequers - the PM's country residence in Buckinghamshire - for talks also being attended by Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt.
Extra security is in place to police protests planned for the second day of Mr Trump's visit.
The president and first lady will travel to Windsor on Friday afternoon to meet the Queen, before flying to Scotland to spend the weekend at Mr Trump's Turnberry golf resort. This part of the visit is being considered private.
Trump: Brexit plan 'will probably kill' US trade deal
Mr Trump's interview comes as protesters - both anti and pro-Trump - prepare to march on Friday
Donald Trump has said the UK will "probably not" get a trade deal with the US, if the prime minister's Brexit plan goes ahead.
He told The Sun the PM's plan would "probably kill the deal" as it would mean the US "would be dealing with the European Union" instead of with the UK.
Downing Street has not yet reacted to Mr Trump's remarks.
Theresa May has been making the case for a US free trade deal with Mr Trump, on his first UK visit as president.
She said Brexit was an "unprecedented opportunity" to create growth in the UK and US.
Mr Trump also said that former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson - who disagrees with the PM on Brexit and resigned this week - would make a "great prime minister", adding "I think he's got what it takes".
In his interview, he also renewed his criticism of London Mayor Sadiq Khan over last year's terror attacks in London, saying he had done "a terrible job".
It comes ahead of a day of planned, and widespread, anti-Trump protests across the UK, including one in Parliament Square which involves a giant inflatable of Mr Trump as a baby. Some pro-Trump events are also taking place.
The US president and his wife, Melania, were given a red carpet reception at Blenheim Palace, Oxfordshire on Thursday evening.
They were at a black-tie dinner with Mrs May as news broke of his interview with the newspaper, which said it was conducted while he was in Brussels.
After it was published, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said the president "likes and respects Prime Minister May very much", adding that he had "never said anything bad about her".
Mays greet Trumps for UK black-tie dinner
Mr Trump - who has been a long-time supporter of Brexit - told The Sun that the UK's blueprint for its post-Brexit relations with the EU was "a much different deal than the people voted on".
He said the Brexit proposals Mrs May and her cabinet thrashed out at the PM's country house Chequers last week "would probably end a major trade relationship with the United States."
"We have enough difficulty with the European Union," he said, saying the EU has "not treated the United States fairly on trading".
'I told May how to do it'
He also said Mrs May had not listened to his advice on how to do a Brexit deal, saying: "I would have done it much differently.
"I actually told Theresa May how to do it but she didn't agree, she didn't listen to me. She wanted to go a different route," he said.
Tom Newton Dunn, the Sun journalist who interviewed Mr Trump, said the US president seemed "sensitive" and knew about the "Trump baby" inflatable.
"He's really quite stung by the criticism he's been getting," said Mr Newton Dunn. "He knew all about the baby blimp. I think it hurt him."
The Sun journalist who interviewed Donald Trump says the president "really cares" what people in Britain think of him.
The BBC's political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, said Mr Trump's interview had "driven a bulldozer" through Mrs May's claim that the UK would be able to get decent trade deals with the wider world, while sticking to the EU rules.
But Foreign Office minister Sir Alan Duncan said things had "moved on" since Mr Trump's interview - which was carried out before he arrived in the UK - and the mood at Thursday night's dinner was "fantastically positive and did focus a lot on trade".
The government does not see Mr Trump's behaviour as "rude", said Sir Alan, adding: "Donald Trump is a controversialist. That's his style."
Trump raises questions over Brexit plans
How we're welcoming Donald Trump to the UK
Queen and US presidents through history
And Chancellor Philip Hammond said he is sure there will be "very positive" talks between Mr Trump and the PM later today.
Protesters near Blenheim Palace making their feelings known on Thursday
Mayor of London Sadiq Khan defended his decision to allow the giant Trump baby inflatable to fly over London, saying: "The idea that we limit the right to protest because it might cause offence to a foreign leader is a slippery slope".
And, responding to Mr Trump's criticism of his response to terrorism, Mr Khan said it was "interesting" that he "is not criticising the mayors of other cities" which have also experienced terror attacks.
Meanwhile, Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry said the PM "should be standing up to [Mr Trump]" after he "slagged her off", instead of holding his hand.
Mr Trump briefly held Mrs May's hand as they went up the stairs
Mr Trump's comments came on the same day the UK government published its proposal for its long-term relationship with the EU.
The plan is aimed at ensuring trade co-operation, with no hard border for Northern Ireland, and global trade deals for the UK. Mrs May said the plan "absolutely delivers on the Brexit we voted for".
But after ministers reached an agreement on the plan at Chequers a week ago, leading Brexiteers Boris Johnson and David Davis resigned from the cabinet.
Reality Check: The rules on protest balloons
'Trump Baby' balloon banned from Turnberry
Why US presidents love the home of golf
Some of Mr Trump's supporters and protesters have been explaining their motivation
Mrs May and Mr Trump are watching a joint counter-terrorism exercise by British and US special forces at a military base.
The pair will then travel to Chequers - the PM's country residence in Buckinghamshire - for talks also being attended by Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt.
Extra security is in place to police protests planned for the second day of Mr Trump's visit.
The president and first lady will travel to Windsor on Friday afternoon to meet the Queen, before flying to Scotland to spend the weekend at Mr Trump's Turnberry golf resort. This part of the visit is being considered private.
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Cave rescue: The Australian diving doctor who stayed with the boys - BBC News
Cave rescue: The Australian diving doctor who stayed with the boys
11 July 2018
Dr Richard Harris spent three days underground with the young Thais and their coach
It was his rare combination of talents that led Australian doctor Richard Harris deep into the Tham Luang cave in Thailand.
When the Wild Boars football team was located deep inside the cave, after being missing for a week, the Adelaide anaesthetist abandoned his holiday in Thailand and volunteered to help.
He went in to assess the boys' health and stayed with them for three days.
It was under his direction that the weakest boys were first led out with the others successfully following in the complex operation.
Dr Harris, known as Harry, is believed to have been one of the last rescuers out of the cave.
The heroes who saved the Wild Boars'
How the operation unfolded
Seventeen days in darkness
But relief and celebration were suddenly cut short by personal tragedy - on Wednesday it emerged that Dr Harris's father had died shortly after the rescue's finish.
The Adelaide doctor is globally renowned for his cave-diving expertise
His employer, South Australia's ambulance service, said his family's grief had been "magnified" by the physical and emotional demands of the rescue operation.
"It has been a tumultuous week with highs and lows," Dr Andrew Pearce from MedSTAR said, asking for privacy.
"Harry is a quiet and kind man who did not think twice about offering his support on this mission."
'Integral part of the rescue'
Dr Harris was specifically identified by British divers and requested by the "highest levels" of the Thai government to join the rescue, according to the Australian government.
Divers stayed with the boys after they were found deep inside the cave
"He was an integral part of the rescue attempt," said Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop who added that the doctor was internationally renowned for his cave rescue expertise.
"[The Australians] have been a big help, especially the doctor," the leader of the rescue mission, acting Chiang Rai governor Narongsak Osotanakorn told an Australian Nine News reporter on Wednesday.
"Very good. The very best," he said in reference to Dr Harris.
Media captionWife and father remember 'hero' Thai diver: "He loved helping others"
His friend Sue Crowe told the BBC the doctor was an unassuming and selfless family man, whose calm presence would have comforted the boys in the cave.
"He is brilliant with children, and he would have made sure that they were prepared in the best possible way from a cave-diving perspective," she said.
"He would have been the perfect person to support them."
Joy and relief as Thai cave boys rescued
The heroes who saved the Wild Boars'
On social media, there has been an outpouring of gratitude directed towards him.
Many have called for him to be made Australian of the Year - the nation's highest civic honour - while the government has indicated there will be some formal recognition.
Peter Gleeson
@PeterGleeson63
Adelaide doctor Richard Harris stopped his holiday to help those Thai boys. If ever a bloke deserved to be Australian of the Year it’s this man. He’s what embodies the true spirit of this country
9:33 PM - Jul 10, 2018
Dan Baxter
@dannybaxter27
Dr Richard Harris, who was the last person out of the Thai cave should be awarded Australian of the Year 🇦🇺
1:13 PM - Jul 11, 2018
105
Sophy Symonds
@sophy_symonds
Replying to @deirdreheenan
Thank you Dr. Richard Harris. You're a true hero and so does everyone from the rescue team. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts.
9:10 PM - Jul 10, 2018
The experienced diver, also an underwater photographer, has completed several cave-diving expeditions in Australia, New Zealand, Christmas Island and China.
One tragic expedition in 2011, involved the retrieval of the body of his friend, Agnes Milowka, who ran out of air during a cave dive in South Australia.
Dr Harris had previously led cave rescue operations
Ms Bishop said the doctor is also known to authorities for his work on medical assistance teams in natural disasters in the Pacific region, and has taken part in Australian aid missions in Vanuatu.
"[He] is an extraordinary Australian and he has certainly made a big difference to the rescue effort here in Thailand," she said.
She also praised his diving partner, Craig Challen, a vet from Perth who accompanied Dr Harris into the caves.
The pair were part of a team of 20 Australians, including police and navy divers, who assisted in the operation.
11 July 2018
Dr Richard Harris spent three days underground with the young Thais and their coach
It was his rare combination of talents that led Australian doctor Richard Harris deep into the Tham Luang cave in Thailand.
When the Wild Boars football team was located deep inside the cave, after being missing for a week, the Adelaide anaesthetist abandoned his holiday in Thailand and volunteered to help.
He went in to assess the boys' health and stayed with them for three days.
It was under his direction that the weakest boys were first led out with the others successfully following in the complex operation.
Dr Harris, known as Harry, is believed to have been one of the last rescuers out of the cave.
The heroes who saved the Wild Boars'
How the operation unfolded
Seventeen days in darkness
But relief and celebration were suddenly cut short by personal tragedy - on Wednesday it emerged that Dr Harris's father had died shortly after the rescue's finish.
The Adelaide doctor is globally renowned for his cave-diving expertise
His employer, South Australia's ambulance service, said his family's grief had been "magnified" by the physical and emotional demands of the rescue operation.
"It has been a tumultuous week with highs and lows," Dr Andrew Pearce from MedSTAR said, asking for privacy.
"Harry is a quiet and kind man who did not think twice about offering his support on this mission."
'Integral part of the rescue'
Dr Harris was specifically identified by British divers and requested by the "highest levels" of the Thai government to join the rescue, according to the Australian government.
Divers stayed with the boys after they were found deep inside the cave
"He was an integral part of the rescue attempt," said Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop who added that the doctor was internationally renowned for his cave rescue expertise.
"[The Australians] have been a big help, especially the doctor," the leader of the rescue mission, acting Chiang Rai governor Narongsak Osotanakorn told an Australian Nine News reporter on Wednesday.
"Very good. The very best," he said in reference to Dr Harris.
Media captionWife and father remember 'hero' Thai diver: "He loved helping others"
His friend Sue Crowe told the BBC the doctor was an unassuming and selfless family man, whose calm presence would have comforted the boys in the cave.
"He is brilliant with children, and he would have made sure that they were prepared in the best possible way from a cave-diving perspective," she said.
"He would have been the perfect person to support them."
Joy and relief as Thai cave boys rescued
The heroes who saved the Wild Boars'
On social media, there has been an outpouring of gratitude directed towards him.
Many have called for him to be made Australian of the Year - the nation's highest civic honour - while the government has indicated there will be some formal recognition.
Peter Gleeson
@PeterGleeson63
Adelaide doctor Richard Harris stopped his holiday to help those Thai boys. If ever a bloke deserved to be Australian of the Year it’s this man. He’s what embodies the true spirit of this country
9:33 PM - Jul 10, 2018
Dan Baxter
@dannybaxter27
Dr Richard Harris, who was the last person out of the Thai cave should be awarded Australian of the Year 🇦🇺
1:13 PM - Jul 11, 2018
105
Sophy Symonds
@sophy_symonds
Replying to @deirdreheenan
Thank you Dr. Richard Harris. You're a true hero and so does everyone from the rescue team. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts.
9:10 PM - Jul 10, 2018
The experienced diver, also an underwater photographer, has completed several cave-diving expeditions in Australia, New Zealand, Christmas Island and China.
One tragic expedition in 2011, involved the retrieval of the body of his friend, Agnes Milowka, who ran out of air during a cave dive in South Australia.
Dr Harris had previously led cave rescue operations
Ms Bishop said the doctor is also known to authorities for his work on medical assistance teams in natural disasters in the Pacific region, and has taken part in Australian aid missions in Vanuatu.
"[He] is an extraordinary Australian and he has certainly made a big difference to the rescue effort here in Thailand," she said.
She also praised his diving partner, Craig Challen, a vet from Perth who accompanied Dr Harris into the caves.
The pair were part of a team of 20 Australians, including police and navy divers, who assisted in the operation.
Donald Trump tweeted about being a 'very stable genius' and everyone is making the same joke - Independent
July 12, 2018
Donald Trump tweeted about being a 'very stable genius' and everyone is making the same joke
Posted 6 months ago by Greg Evans in news
UPVOTE
Donald Trump's latest Twitter rant is rather bizarre.
In the wake of Michael Wolff's damning claims in his latest book and the ongoing investigation into alleged Russian interference in the US election, Mr. Trump decided to set the record straight on a few things.
At around 7:30 am US time the President decided to post three tweets touching on subjects including Russia, so-called 'fake news', Hillary Clinton, mental stability, reality TV and his own intellect.
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
Now that Russian collusion, after one year of intense study, has proven to be a total hoax on the American public, the Democrats and their lapdogs, the Fake News Mainstream Media, are taking out the old Ronald Reagan playbook and screaming mental stability and intelligence.....
10:19 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
....Actually, throughout my life, my two greatest assets have been mental stability and being, like, really smart. Crooked Hillary Clinton also played these cards very hard and, as everyone knows, went down in flames. I went from VERY successful businessman, to top T.V. Star.....
10:27 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
....to President of the United States (on my first try). I think that would qualify as not smart, but genius....and a very stable genius at that!
10:30 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Although it's impressive that he managed to get all of those subjects into just three tweets, the fact that he decided to go on that sort of rant at that time of day has raised some red flags with many people online.
Thankfully, you can always rely on Twitter to break down the situation.
Tony Posnanski
✔
@tonyposnanski
Nothing says “mentally stable” like these dandies at 7:30am on a Saturday from the president.
10:32 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Brian Klaas
✔
@brianklaas
The thing about mentally stable geniuses is that they never have to tell people that they are mentally stable geniuses...
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
....to President of the United States (on my first try). I think that would qualify as not smart, but genius....and a very stable genius at that!
10:38 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Well, you’ll show ‘em. Nothing says stable like a midnight tweet about “Sloppy Steve” followed by a 7:00 a.m. tweet calling “hoax” on an investigation that has already led to charges against 4 people. Except maybe maniacal laughter. Try some of that too. https://t.co/X7c8LOhR30
— Walter Shaub (@waltshaub) January 6, 2018
Brian Klaas
✔
@brianklaas
The President of the United States calling himself a “stable genius” is one for the history books. What a dangerous buffoon.
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
....to President of the United States (on my first try). I think that would qualify as not smart, but genius....and a very stable genius at that!
10:34 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Gissur Simonarson
✔
@GissiSim
Nothing more stable than tweeting a rant like this as the most powerful man in the world.
10:32 PM - Jan 6, 2018
30
19 people are talking about this
Twitter Ads info and privacy
Jamie Ross
✔
@JamieRoss7
I hope now Trump has assured us that he's mentally stable in an unhinged and furious Twitter rant we can now just lay it to rest.
10:46 PM - Jan 6, 2018
There's always a joke or two to be had in these situations too.
Matt Haig
✔
@matthaig1
After years of feeling mentally unstable I have just looked at Trump's tweets and feel mentally stable.
10:52 PM - Jan 6, 2018
John Schindler
✔
@20committee
Very Stable Genius will be the opening act for Whiskey Steve and the Confederate Elves on their 2018 World Tour.
10:46 PM - Jan 6, 2018
I am also a very stable genius who, like most very stable people, is very comfortable bragging about my very stable genius status.
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) January 6, 2018
Bec Shaw
✔
@Brocklesnitch
Changing my tinder bio to 'mentally stable genius'
10:44 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Oliver Willis
✔
@owillis
Remember how every Saturday Obama had to tweet that he was smart and definitely not insane?
10:41 PM - Jan 6, 2018
“‘Wile E. Coyote, Super Genius.’ I like the way that rolls out...’Wile E. Coyote, SOOOOPER Genius!’” pic.twitter.com/5kzzJKqcNt
View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
Keith Olbermann
✔
@KeithOlbermann
“‘Wile E. Coyote, Super Genius.’ I like the way that rolls out...’Wile E. Coyote, SOOOOPER Genius!’”
10:46 PM - Jan 6, 2018
James O'Malley
✔
@Psythor
“Then he claimed he was a ‘very stable genius’”.
10:48 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Anyone for some Brain Force?
Matthew Champion
✔
@matthewchampion
stable genius starter kit
10:52 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Still, while it is fun to make jokes about a rather bizarre Twitter rant, we have to remember that this is the reality we live in now...
Mark_Coughlan
✔
@Mark_Coughlan
A Reuters red alert to every newsroom in the world. This is the world we live in, guys.
10:41 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Donald Trump tweeted about being a 'very stable genius' and everyone is making the same joke
Posted 6 months ago by Greg Evans in news
UPVOTE
Donald Trump's latest Twitter rant is rather bizarre.
In the wake of Michael Wolff's damning claims in his latest book and the ongoing investigation into alleged Russian interference in the US election, Mr. Trump decided to set the record straight on a few things.
At around 7:30 am US time the President decided to post three tweets touching on subjects including Russia, so-called 'fake news', Hillary Clinton, mental stability, reality TV and his own intellect.
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
Now that Russian collusion, after one year of intense study, has proven to be a total hoax on the American public, the Democrats and their lapdogs, the Fake News Mainstream Media, are taking out the old Ronald Reagan playbook and screaming mental stability and intelligence.....
10:19 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
....Actually, throughout my life, my two greatest assets have been mental stability and being, like, really smart. Crooked Hillary Clinton also played these cards very hard and, as everyone knows, went down in flames. I went from VERY successful businessman, to top T.V. Star.....
10:27 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
....to President of the United States (on my first try). I think that would qualify as not smart, but genius....and a very stable genius at that!
10:30 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Although it's impressive that he managed to get all of those subjects into just three tweets, the fact that he decided to go on that sort of rant at that time of day has raised some red flags with many people online.
Thankfully, you can always rely on Twitter to break down the situation.
Tony Posnanski
✔
@tonyposnanski
Nothing says “mentally stable” like these dandies at 7:30am on a Saturday from the president.
10:32 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Brian Klaas
✔
@brianklaas
The thing about mentally stable geniuses is that they never have to tell people that they are mentally stable geniuses...
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
....to President of the United States (on my first try). I think that would qualify as not smart, but genius....and a very stable genius at that!
10:38 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Well, you’ll show ‘em. Nothing says stable like a midnight tweet about “Sloppy Steve” followed by a 7:00 a.m. tweet calling “hoax” on an investigation that has already led to charges against 4 people. Except maybe maniacal laughter. Try some of that too. https://t.co/X7c8LOhR30
— Walter Shaub (@waltshaub) January 6, 2018
Brian Klaas
✔
@brianklaas
The President of the United States calling himself a “stable genius” is one for the history books. What a dangerous buffoon.
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
....to President of the United States (on my first try). I think that would qualify as not smart, but genius....and a very stable genius at that!
10:34 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Gissur Simonarson
✔
@GissiSim
Nothing more stable than tweeting a rant like this as the most powerful man in the world.
10:32 PM - Jan 6, 2018
30
19 people are talking about this
Twitter Ads info and privacy
Jamie Ross
✔
@JamieRoss7
I hope now Trump has assured us that he's mentally stable in an unhinged and furious Twitter rant we can now just lay it to rest.
10:46 PM - Jan 6, 2018
There's always a joke or two to be had in these situations too.
Matt Haig
✔
@matthaig1
After years of feeling mentally unstable I have just looked at Trump's tweets and feel mentally stable.
10:52 PM - Jan 6, 2018
John Schindler
✔
@20committee
Very Stable Genius will be the opening act for Whiskey Steve and the Confederate Elves on their 2018 World Tour.
10:46 PM - Jan 6, 2018
I am also a very stable genius who, like most very stable people, is very comfortable bragging about my very stable genius status.
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) January 6, 2018
Bec Shaw
✔
@Brocklesnitch
Changing my tinder bio to 'mentally stable genius'
10:44 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Oliver Willis
✔
@owillis
Remember how every Saturday Obama had to tweet that he was smart and definitely not insane?
10:41 PM - Jan 6, 2018
“‘Wile E. Coyote, Super Genius.’ I like the way that rolls out...’Wile E. Coyote, SOOOOPER Genius!’” pic.twitter.com/5kzzJKqcNt
View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
Keith Olbermann
✔
@KeithOlbermann
“‘Wile E. Coyote, Super Genius.’ I like the way that rolls out...’Wile E. Coyote, SOOOOPER Genius!’”
10:46 PM - Jan 6, 2018
James O'Malley
✔
@Psythor
“Then he claimed he was a ‘very stable genius’”.
10:48 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Anyone for some Brain Force?
Matthew Champion
✔
@matthewchampion
stable genius starter kit
10:52 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Still, while it is fun to make jokes about a rather bizarre Twitter rant, we have to remember that this is the reality we live in now...
Mark_Coughlan
✔
@Mark_Coughlan
A Reuters red alert to every newsroom in the world. This is the world we live in, guys.
10:41 PM - Jan 6, 2018
Trump repeats attack on Germany on second day of Nato summit - Financial Times
July 12, 2018
Trump repeats attack on Germany on second day of Nato summit
US ‘pays tens of Billions of Dollars too much to subsidize Europe’, president writes on Twitter
Donald Trump is approached by British prime minister Theresa May at dinner on Wednesday on the first day of the Nato summit © AP
Demetri Sevastopulo and Michael Peel in Brussels 2 HOURS AGO Print this page13
Donald Trump has launched another stinging attack on Germany on the second day of the Nato summit in Brussels, singling out Berlin for not spending more on defence.
“Presidents have been trying unsuccessfully for years to get Germany and other rich NATO Nations to pay more toward their protection from Russia. They pay only a fraction of their cost. The U.S. pays tens of Billions of Dollars too much to subsidize Europe, and loses Big on Trade!” Mr Trump wrote on Twitter on Thursday morning.
The renewed attack came the day after the US president stunned leaders at the annual Nato summit by saying Germany was “captive” to Moscow because of its Russian gas imports, in televised remarks that Mr Trump would have known would be widely broadcast.
In his early Thursday morning posts on Twitter, Mr Trump repeated his criticism that Nato was protecting its members from Russia while Germany was paying Moscow “billions of dollars” for gas imports. “Not acceptable!” he said.
Mr Trump also repeated calls for Nato members to go beyond a commitment to spend 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence — a target agreed by the alliance in 2014 — and to boost spending to 4 per cent. Mr Trump made a similar demand at last year’s Nato summit and again in private on Wednesday. The White House said the call for 4 per cent spending, even more than the US spends now, was not a formal proposal.
Nato members had played down tensions on Wednesday but the US president was widely condemned for the way he had attacked Germany in public. At a press conference Jens Stoltenberg, Nato secretary-general, highlighted some of the issues that the alliance members had agreed in a declaration. “For a quarter of a century, many of our countries have been cutting billions from their [defence] budgets, now they are adding billions,” he said.
John Kerry, the former US secretary of state, described Mr Trump’s comments as “disgraceful [and] destructive”. His criticism echoed the views of many foreign policy experts and officials who agree that Nato needs to spend more but argue that the alliance must demonstrate unity, particularly to avoid playing into the hands of Russia.
“What was on display in Brussels today was not the behaviour of a strong, principled, and wise leader. Enough,” Mr Kerry said on Wednesday.
After lambasting Germany on Wednesday morning, Mr Trump later told reporters who were allowed briefly to attend his meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel that relations between the two countries were “tremendous”.
The US president also reportedly avoided antagonising the other 28 Nato leaders at the official summit dinner on Wednesday evening. According to one European diplomat, Mr Trump was very polite, although some of the guests had been braced for the US president to erupt at any moment.
Merkel defends Germany's freedoms at Nato meeting
The diplomat said “no one wanted to rock the boat” and the other leaders had “massaged” Mr Trump by focusing on questions about his recent summit with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un.
Mr Trump will hold private meetings with the leaders of Azerbaijan, Romania, Ukraine and Georgia, before leaving Brussels for the UK, where he will spend three days before travelling to Helsinki for his first formal summit with Russian president Vladimir Putin.
Follow Demetri Sevastopulo and Michael Peel on Twitter: @dimi and @mikepeeljourno
Trump repeats attack on Germany on second day of Nato summit
US ‘pays tens of Billions of Dollars too much to subsidize Europe’, president writes on Twitter
Donald Trump is approached by British prime minister Theresa May at dinner on Wednesday on the first day of the Nato summit © AP
Demetri Sevastopulo and Michael Peel in Brussels 2 HOURS AGO Print this page13
Donald Trump has launched another stinging attack on Germany on the second day of the Nato summit in Brussels, singling out Berlin for not spending more on defence.
“Presidents have been trying unsuccessfully for years to get Germany and other rich NATO Nations to pay more toward their protection from Russia. They pay only a fraction of their cost. The U.S. pays tens of Billions of Dollars too much to subsidize Europe, and loses Big on Trade!” Mr Trump wrote on Twitter on Thursday morning.
The renewed attack came the day after the US president stunned leaders at the annual Nato summit by saying Germany was “captive” to Moscow because of its Russian gas imports, in televised remarks that Mr Trump would have known would be widely broadcast.
In his early Thursday morning posts on Twitter, Mr Trump repeated his criticism that Nato was protecting its members from Russia while Germany was paying Moscow “billions of dollars” for gas imports. “Not acceptable!” he said.
Mr Trump also repeated calls for Nato members to go beyond a commitment to spend 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence — a target agreed by the alliance in 2014 — and to boost spending to 4 per cent. Mr Trump made a similar demand at last year’s Nato summit and again in private on Wednesday. The White House said the call for 4 per cent spending, even more than the US spends now, was not a formal proposal.
Nato members had played down tensions on Wednesday but the US president was widely condemned for the way he had attacked Germany in public. At a press conference Jens Stoltenberg, Nato secretary-general, highlighted some of the issues that the alliance members had agreed in a declaration. “For a quarter of a century, many of our countries have been cutting billions from their [defence] budgets, now they are adding billions,” he said.
John Kerry, the former US secretary of state, described Mr Trump’s comments as “disgraceful [and] destructive”. His criticism echoed the views of many foreign policy experts and officials who agree that Nato needs to spend more but argue that the alliance must demonstrate unity, particularly to avoid playing into the hands of Russia.
“What was on display in Brussels today was not the behaviour of a strong, principled, and wise leader. Enough,” Mr Kerry said on Wednesday.
After lambasting Germany on Wednesday morning, Mr Trump later told reporters who were allowed briefly to attend his meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel that relations between the two countries were “tremendous”.
The US president also reportedly avoided antagonising the other 28 Nato leaders at the official summit dinner on Wednesday evening. According to one European diplomat, Mr Trump was very polite, although some of the guests had been braced for the US president to erupt at any moment.
Merkel defends Germany's freedoms at Nato meeting
The diplomat said “no one wanted to rock the boat” and the other leaders had “massaged” Mr Trump by focusing on questions about his recent summit with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un.
Mr Trump will hold private meetings with the leaders of Azerbaijan, Romania, Ukraine and Georgia, before leaving Brussels for the UK, where he will spend three days before travelling to Helsinki for his first formal summit with Russian president Vladimir Putin.
Follow Demetri Sevastopulo and Michael Peel on Twitter: @dimi and @mikepeeljourno
Trump Nato: Leaders to tackle Afghanistan conflict - BBC News
July 12, 2018
Trump Nato: Leaders to tackle Afghanistan conflict
Canada's Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland (C) and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (3R) are at the summit
Nato leaders plan to turn their attention to the conflict in Afghanistan, on the second day of a Brussels summit so far dominated by demands from President Donald Trump.
Taliban militants reportedly killed up to 30 soldiers in attacks on Afghan army posts on Thursday.
Mr Trump has urged Nato allies to commit at least 4% of their annual output (GDP) to military spending.
Nato states are currently working towards a target of 2%.
The US leader also singled out Germany for criticism over its defence spending.
Nato leaders are hoping for a more conciliatory tone from Mr Trump on Thursday.
But in early-morning tweets from Brussels, the US president resumed his criticism.
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
Presidents have been trying unsuccessfully for years to get Germany and other rich NATO Nations to pay more toward their protection from Russia. They pay only a fraction of their cost. The U.S. pays tens of Billions of Dollars too much to subsidize Europe, and loses Big on Trade!
4:03 PM - Jul 12, 2018
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
....On top of it all, Germany just started paying Russia, the country they want protection from, Billions of Dollars for their Energy needs coming out of a new pipeline from Russia. Not acceptable! All NATO Nations must meet their 2% commitment, and that must ultimately go to 4%!
4:12 PM - Jul 12, 2018
He earlier accused Germany of being held prisoner to imported Russian energy, saying it is "totally controlled" by Moscow.
EU figures suggest Russia is responsible for between 50% and 75% of Germany's gas imports but gas makes up less than 20% of Germany's energy mix for power production.
How much of Germany's gas comes from Russia?
What does the US contribute to Nato?
Can Nato survive President Donald Trump?
President Trump's next stop after Belgium is the UK, where he will arrive early afternoon to begin a two-day working visit, which is expected to spark public protests.
Media captionTrump baby blimp ready to take first steps
What's the plan for Afghanistan?
Afghanistan's President Ashraf Ghani will be present for the second day of talks, and Nato's Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg hopes the bloc will agree to fund Afghan security forces until 2024.
Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May has already confirmed that the UK will send 440 more troops to serve in non-combat roles in Afghanistan.
The US also committed an extra 3,000 troops to support Afghan forces in September 2017 - bringing its total to 15,000.
Image copyrightEPA
Image caption
The Taliban and Afghan forces held a brief ceasefire during Eid celebrations in June
US officials have said Washington is planning a strategic review, a year after Mr Trump agreed to remain involved in the 17-year conflict.
The US-led invasion drove the hardline Taliban from power in 2001, as part of a crackdown on Islamist militants after the 9/11 attacks in the US.
Thousands of Nato troops were deployed and a long, bloody conflict followed as the ousted militants fought back.
In 2014, Nato formally ended the combat mission, handing over to Afghan forces, whom it had trained.
Since then, the Taliban have made substantial territorial gains across the country. A BBC study from January found the group is openly active in 70% of Afghanistan, and controls or threatens more territory than before the foreign troops left.
Taliban 'threaten 70% of Afghanistan'
The cost of Trump's air war in Afghanistan
On Thursday, officials in Afghanistan said the Taliban had launched an attack on a number of army posts in the northern province of Kunduz.
Earlier, dozens of Islamic religious scholars met in Saudi Arabia to discuss Afghanistan's war and called on the Taliban to renounce violence.
Is Nato still expanding?
Nato leaders will discuss the alliance's ties with Georgia and Ukraine. Both countries want to join Nato, but their bids are not expected to make progress.
Media captionTrump tells Nato chief that Germany is "totally controlled by Russia"
That is because Nato rules prevent countries with a border conflict from joining and both countries have disputes with Russia.
By contrast, a ceremony will be held for Macedonia after it was invited to begin accession talks on Wednesday.
Macedonia: The country waiting for Nato's invitation
What will Trump do in the UK?
He will spend time with the Queen and prime minister, before flying to Scotland to spend the weekend at his golf resort.
Thousands of people are expected to protest against his visit across the UK.
Why Trump's UK visit will be unlike any other
Pomp and protest as Trump visit stokes UK culture war
Mr Trump is due to hold his first summit with Vladimir Putin, in Helsinki, on 16 July.
He shocked some by quipping that the Nato gathering might prove tougher than next Monday's summit with Mr Putin.
Trump Nato: Leaders to tackle Afghanistan conflict
Canada's Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland (C) and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (3R) are at the summit
Nato leaders plan to turn their attention to the conflict in Afghanistan, on the second day of a Brussels summit so far dominated by demands from President Donald Trump.
Taliban militants reportedly killed up to 30 soldiers in attacks on Afghan army posts on Thursday.
Mr Trump has urged Nato allies to commit at least 4% of their annual output (GDP) to military spending.
Nato states are currently working towards a target of 2%.
The US leader also singled out Germany for criticism over its defence spending.
Nato leaders are hoping for a more conciliatory tone from Mr Trump on Thursday.
But in early-morning tweets from Brussels, the US president resumed his criticism.
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
Presidents have been trying unsuccessfully for years to get Germany and other rich NATO Nations to pay more toward their protection from Russia. They pay only a fraction of their cost. The U.S. pays tens of Billions of Dollars too much to subsidize Europe, and loses Big on Trade!
4:03 PM - Jul 12, 2018
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
....On top of it all, Germany just started paying Russia, the country they want protection from, Billions of Dollars for their Energy needs coming out of a new pipeline from Russia. Not acceptable! All NATO Nations must meet their 2% commitment, and that must ultimately go to 4%!
4:12 PM - Jul 12, 2018
He earlier accused Germany of being held prisoner to imported Russian energy, saying it is "totally controlled" by Moscow.
EU figures suggest Russia is responsible for between 50% and 75% of Germany's gas imports but gas makes up less than 20% of Germany's energy mix for power production.
How much of Germany's gas comes from Russia?
What does the US contribute to Nato?
Can Nato survive President Donald Trump?
President Trump's next stop after Belgium is the UK, where he will arrive early afternoon to begin a two-day working visit, which is expected to spark public protests.
Media captionTrump baby blimp ready to take first steps
What's the plan for Afghanistan?
Afghanistan's President Ashraf Ghani will be present for the second day of talks, and Nato's Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg hopes the bloc will agree to fund Afghan security forces until 2024.
Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May has already confirmed that the UK will send 440 more troops to serve in non-combat roles in Afghanistan.
The US also committed an extra 3,000 troops to support Afghan forces in September 2017 - bringing its total to 15,000.
Image copyrightEPA
Image caption
The Taliban and Afghan forces held a brief ceasefire during Eid celebrations in June
US officials have said Washington is planning a strategic review, a year after Mr Trump agreed to remain involved in the 17-year conflict.
The US-led invasion drove the hardline Taliban from power in 2001, as part of a crackdown on Islamist militants after the 9/11 attacks in the US.
Thousands of Nato troops were deployed and a long, bloody conflict followed as the ousted militants fought back.
In 2014, Nato formally ended the combat mission, handing over to Afghan forces, whom it had trained.
Since then, the Taliban have made substantial territorial gains across the country. A BBC study from January found the group is openly active in 70% of Afghanistan, and controls or threatens more territory than before the foreign troops left.
Taliban 'threaten 70% of Afghanistan'
The cost of Trump's air war in Afghanistan
On Thursday, officials in Afghanistan said the Taliban had launched an attack on a number of army posts in the northern province of Kunduz.
Earlier, dozens of Islamic religious scholars met in Saudi Arabia to discuss Afghanistan's war and called on the Taliban to renounce violence.
Is Nato still expanding?
Nato leaders will discuss the alliance's ties with Georgia and Ukraine. Both countries want to join Nato, but their bids are not expected to make progress.
Media captionTrump tells Nato chief that Germany is "totally controlled by Russia"
That is because Nato rules prevent countries with a border conflict from joining and both countries have disputes with Russia.
By contrast, a ceremony will be held for Macedonia after it was invited to begin accession talks on Wednesday.
Macedonia: The country waiting for Nato's invitation
What will Trump do in the UK?
He will spend time with the Queen and prime minister, before flying to Scotland to spend the weekend at his golf resort.
Thousands of people are expected to protest against his visit across the UK.
Why Trump's UK visit will be unlike any other
Pomp and protest as Trump visit stokes UK culture war
Mr Trump is due to hold his first summit with Vladimir Putin, in Helsinki, on 16 July.
He shocked some by quipping that the Nato gathering might prove tougher than next Monday's summit with Mr Putin.
Stormy Daniels arrested in Ohio - lawyer - BBC News
July 11, 2018
Stormy Daniels arrested in Ohio - lawyer
Stormy Daniels, real name Stephanie Clifford, says she had a sexual relationship with President Donald Trump
US porn star Stormy Daniels has been arrested in a strip club in Columbus, Ohio, according to her lawyer.
Ms Daniels was arrested for allegedly letting a customer touch her on stage "in a non sexual manner", lawyer Michael Avenatti tweeted.
Ms Daniels became embroiled in a row with President Donald Trump after saying she slept with him in 2006, an allegation which he denies.
Her lawyer called the arrest "a setup" and "politically motivated".
The president and the porn star: Why this matters
The conflicting statements in the Stormy Daniels saga
A Columbus police spokesperson has yet to respond to requests for confirmation about the arrest at the Sirens club in the north of the city.
Mr Avenatti tweeted that Ms Daniels, real name Stephanie Clifford, had been performing "the same act she has performed across the nation at nearly a hundred strip clubs".
Michael Avenatti
✔
@MichaelAvenatti
Just rcvd word that my client @StormyDaniels was arrested in Columbus Ohio whole performing the same act she has performed across the nation at nearly a hundred strip clubs. This was a setup & politically motivated. It reeks of desperation. We will fight all bogus charges. #Basta
2:47 PM - Jul 12, 2018
He said he expected her to be released on bail shortly and charged with a misdemeanour and vowed to "vehemently contest all charges".
An Ohio law known as the Community Defense Act proscribes anyone touching a nude or semi-nude dancer, unless they are related.
Sirens tweeted last month to say Ms Daniels would make two "exclusive appearances" at the venue on the nights of 11 and 12 July.
A person who answered the phone at Sirens declined to comment.
Ms Daniels says she was paid $130,000 (£98,000) shortly before the 2016 presidential election to keep quiet about her alleged sexual encounter with Mr Trump.
She is trying to free herself from a non-disclosure agreement signed before the election, and suing over a "defamatory" tweet by the US president earlier this year. Mr Trump denies all allegations.
Stormy Daniels arrested in Ohio - lawyer
Stormy Daniels, real name Stephanie Clifford, says she had a sexual relationship with President Donald Trump
US porn star Stormy Daniels has been arrested in a strip club in Columbus, Ohio, according to her lawyer.
Ms Daniels was arrested for allegedly letting a customer touch her on stage "in a non sexual manner", lawyer Michael Avenatti tweeted.
Ms Daniels became embroiled in a row with President Donald Trump after saying she slept with him in 2006, an allegation which he denies.
Her lawyer called the arrest "a setup" and "politically motivated".
The president and the porn star: Why this matters
The conflicting statements in the Stormy Daniels saga
A Columbus police spokesperson has yet to respond to requests for confirmation about the arrest at the Sirens club in the north of the city.
Mr Avenatti tweeted that Ms Daniels, real name Stephanie Clifford, had been performing "the same act she has performed across the nation at nearly a hundred strip clubs".
Michael Avenatti
✔
@MichaelAvenatti
Just rcvd word that my client @StormyDaniels was arrested in Columbus Ohio whole performing the same act she has performed across the nation at nearly a hundred strip clubs. This was a setup & politically motivated. It reeks of desperation. We will fight all bogus charges. #Basta
2:47 PM - Jul 12, 2018
He said he expected her to be released on bail shortly and charged with a misdemeanour and vowed to "vehemently contest all charges".
An Ohio law known as the Community Defense Act proscribes anyone touching a nude or semi-nude dancer, unless they are related.
Sirens tweeted last month to say Ms Daniels would make two "exclusive appearances" at the venue on the nights of 11 and 12 July.
A person who answered the phone at Sirens declined to comment.
Ms Daniels says she was paid $130,000 (£98,000) shortly before the 2016 presidential election to keep quiet about her alleged sexual encounter with Mr Trump.
She is trying to free herself from a non-disclosure agreement signed before the election, and suing over a "defamatory" tweet by the US president earlier this year. Mr Trump denies all allegations.
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