Friday, October 17, 2014

Opinion: Why More Inventions Don't Win Nobel Prizes, and Why That's a Good Thing - National Geographic

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/10/141008-invention-win-nobel-prize-science/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=link_fb20141009news-opinionnobel&utm_campaign=Content&sf5123455=1


Even though Alfred Nobel was an inventor, fundamental discoveries have won more Nobel Prizes. And maybe that's OK, a science journalist argues.

George Johnson
PUBLISHED OCTOBER 8, 2014
When Alfred Nobel wrote a will leaving his fortune to underwrite annual prizes for intellectual achievement, he specified that one be given "to the person who shall have made the most important discovery or invention within the field of physics."
To the credit of the judges, they didn't take his instructions too literally. Nobel accolades are best heaped upon fundamental insights. Practical inventions get other rewards.
Usually the theoretical does win out. This year's physics winner was an exception—blue LEDs, or light-emitting diodes, hailed in a news release from the Nobel Foundation as "a new energy-efficient and environment-friendly light source."
Perhaps they were making up for awarding last year's prize to the Higgs boson. That discovery will never illuminate most people's lives, but it provided the capstone for one of science's most towering achievements: the Standard Model, which goes a long way toward showing how matter and energy conspire to form the universe. (See "Nobel Prize Goes to Inventors of Blue LED: Why It Was Revolutionary.")
It's fitting that Thomas Edison was never recognized for the lightbulb, or Alexander Graham Bell for the telephone. Instead the judges gave physics prizes to J. J. Thomson and Robert Millikan for discovering the electron—the juice not just for Edison's lights and Bell's telephones but also for an entire communications and computation industry. (See "Why Didn't They Win? 10 Huge Discoveries Without a Nobel.")
Traditionally the category called "physiology or medicine" has recognized work of more obvious benefit—penicillin, streptomycin, insulin, and more recently, discoveries elucidating the roles of the viruses HIV in AIDS and HPV in cervical cancer. But awards for theoretical insights—the double helix and cancer—causing genes (oncogenes)-have had even greater impacts on understanding the functions and malfunctions of life.
This year's award—for uncovering circuitry used by the brain for navigation—won't save lives or quell epidemics. But it stands as a particularly impressive step toward a goal with no end in sight: understanding the mind. (See "Nobel Prize a Reminder of How the Brain Can Surprise Us.")
When inventions, pure and simple, have been bestowed with the prize—the cyclotron, the bubble chamber, the digital light sensors called CCDs (for charge-coupled devices)—the honor has almost always been not for the thing itself but for the new realms of discovery it opened up. The world could get along well without camera cell phones. What's exciting about CCDs, whose inventors won the 2009 physics prize, is their use in the Hubble Space Telescope and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.
So it was with this year's Nobel Prize in chemistry—for a technology called super-resolved fluorescence microscopy, which allows scientists to study living cells at a level of detail once thought impossible.
Practical spin-offs are often unforeseen. When Heike Onnes was recognized back in 1913 "for his investigations on the properties of matter at low temperatures," the judges seemed most impressed that the work led to the making of liquid helium.
But Onnes had also discovered superconductivity. That in itself was a triumph, and it led to the development of the powerful electromagnets used both in MRI scanning and the Large Hadron Collider, the gargantuan instrument in which the Higgs boson was pinned down.
That celebrated find may never have practical applications. Nor probably will the Nobel Prize-winning observation that the universe is expanding at an accelerated pace. Yet no one asks that of the literature prizes—and science is the most exalted art of all.
George Johnson is a freelance science writer and the author of The Ten Most Beautiful Experiments and other books.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

France’s Jean Tirole Wins Nobel Prize for Economics - Fortune Magazine

http://time.com/3501723/jean-tirole-nobel-prize-economics/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29

Oct. 13, 2014
    
French economist Jean Tirole poses at the School of Economics in Toulouse, France on June 2, 2008.Eric Cabanis—AFP/Getty Images

Tirole won for his ‘analysis of market power and regulation’

French economist Jean Tirolehas won the 2014 Nobel prize for economics.
Tirole, a professor of economics at Toulouse University, won for his “analysis of market power and regulation.”

On Friday, Pakistani school girl Malala Yousafzai and India’s Kailash Satyarthi both won the Nobel Peace Prize for their work defending education rights for children.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Oil Prices Hit 3-Year Low - Fortune Magazine

http://time.com/3501832/oil-gas-prices-opec/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29

Oct. 13, 2014
    

As OPEC squabbles over sharing pain of lower prices

RECOMMENDED FOR YOU
The price of crude oil fell to a new three-year low Monday as a split between the world’s most important producers on how to share the pain of lower prices becomes increasingly apparent.

Prices for the U.S. and European benchmark blends fell nearly 2% in early trading Monday, on a Reuters reportsuggesting that Saudi Arabia was willing to accept a price of as low as $80 a barrel for the next year or two, in order to defend its share of the global market. The New York Mercantile Exchange’s crude contract traded at $84.65 by 0700 EDT, down from a peak of over $107 a barrel as recently as June.
Saudi Arabia is the largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the cartel which produces a third of the world’s oil supply and essentially keeps the balance of supply and demand in the market. As Saudi Arabia can undercut almost every other country if it wants to, it has a huge influence on regulating OPEC’s overall supply.
The price of the world’s most important commodity is under pressure from both directions: demand is weakening as the European and Chinese economies slow down, while global supply is increasing as Iraqi and Libyan exports rebound from war-related disruptions, and the U.S. pumps ever more oil from shale deposits. (The long-term demand outlook is also looking rockier, because of new technologies such as electric cars.)
The sharpest decline in recent weeks was due to Saudi Arabia slashing official selling prices for customers in Asia and Europe signalling that it was prepared to remove the floor for prices for the short term. Iran and Iraq have both followed suit in recent days.
Such developments invariably create tensions within OPEC, whose 12 members have very different agendas.
Venezuela and Iran, two countries which need as high a price as possible to support their budget spending, have both signalled their unhappiness and are pressing for an emergency meeting of OPEC ministers to agree coordinated production cutbacks. A top adviser to the Iranian oil ministry, Mehran Amirmoeini, warned at the weekend about a repeat of the havoc of 1998, when an “inadequate reaction by OPEC” to the Asian financial crisis brought the price crashing down to $8 a barrel.
Saudi and its gulf allies, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, have so far appeared unmoved.
“I don’t think today there is a chance that (OPEC) countries would reduce their production,” state news agency KUNA quoted Kuwaiti minister Ali al-Omair as saying Sunday.
Saudi Arabia’s willingness to accept a price war may benefit U.S. and European consumers in the form of lower gasoline prices, but will have big knock-on effects in other oil-producing countries.
It will certainly make life harder for shale oil producers in the U.S., as up to 40% of alternative U.S. oil supplies may be unprofitable at prices below $80 a barrel, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank.
But the chief effects are on other petro-states. Russia, for example, needs an oil price of $114/bbl for its budget to balance this year, and it needs a balanced budget all the more because western financial sanctions mean that it can’t finance a budget deficit by borrowing in international capital markets right now. The ruble hit a new all-time low of 40.438 to the dollar in early trading Monday and has lost 16% against the dollar since July. Against a backdrop of falling revenue, finance minister Anton Siluanov warned last week that the country’s ambitious plans to raise defense spending had become unaffordable.
A spokesman for Russian state-controlled giant OAO Rosneft took a swipe at Saudi “manipulation” of the oil price on Sunday, warning that it would “end badly” for the Kingdom. Saudi-Russian relations have soured over Russia’s support for the Assad regime in Syria. Russia has also grumbled about Saudi sponsorship of radical Islam in its southern republics.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

The Cost of Living the Luxe Life Has Fallen — if You Live in Asia - TIME

http://time.com/3504971/cost-of-living-luxury-prices-asia-rich-affluence-lifestyle/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29

4:37 AM ET
    

A dip in the luxury-property market is behind the trend

Asia is already poised to take over from North America as the region of the world with the most multimillionaires. Now Asia’s wealthy are about to see their money go further.
The Wall Street Journalreports that living exceptionally well in Asia cost less this year than it did last year — the first time since 2011 that it has gone down from year to year.
The 2014 Lifestyle Index from Swiss private bank Julius Baer says the cost of living la dolce vita in 11 Asian cities fell 5.3% from 2013 to 2014, the Journal says.
The good news for Asia’s rich owes much to a big dip in top-end property prices, which, for instance, are down about 14% in Hong Kong. The prices of high-end hotel suites, business-class flights and a glass of wine also fell in most of the markets.
What did not fall, though, was the price of getting an education in Asia: going to university in Tokyo is 44% pricier that it was last year. Even in Hong Kong and Shanghai, which saw the lightest increase in tuition, it’s still 22% and 21% more expensive to get a college degree in those cities than it was in 2013.
Meanwhile, in bad news for the truly well-heeled, the price of top-end women’s shoes, including red-soled heels from Christian Louboutin, is still as high as ever.

[WSJ]

Monday, October 13, 2014

Dallas Nurse Contracts Ebola Virus, Elevating Response and Anxiety - New York Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/13/us/texas-health-worker-tests-positive-for-ebola.html?emc=edit_th_20141013&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=56381892

By MANNY FERNANDEZOCT. 12, 2014

    A hazardous-materials crew on Sunday cleaned outside the Dallas apartment building of a nurse who was infected with Ebola. 

    DALLAS — A nurse here became the first person to contract Ebola within the United States, prompting local, state and federal officials who had settled into a choreographed response to scramble on Sunday to solve the mystery of how she became infected, despite wearing protective gear, and to monitor additional people possibly at risk.
    The news further stoked fears of health care workers across the country, many of whom have grown increasingly anxious about having to handle Ebola cases. The confirmation on Sunday of the second Ebola case in Dallas — four days after the death on Wednesday of the first patient, Thomas Eric Duncan, 42, a Liberian who arrived in this country in September — opened a new and more frightening chapter in the unfolding public health drama.
    While the new Ebola patient was not publicly identified, officials said that she was a nurse who had helped treat Mr. Duncan at a hospital here and that she may have violated safety protocols. It was the first confirmed instance of Ebola being transmitted in this country. Officials expanded the pool of people they had been monitoring, because the nurse had not been among the 48 health care workers, relatives of Mr. Duncan and others whom they were evaluating daily.
    Photo
    Mayor Mike Rawlings spoke to residents of the street.CreditLM Otero/Associated Press
    The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended that health officials look more closely at the protective gear that nurses, doctors and hospital assistants use when treating Ebola patients. It also, for the first time, was considering the idea that patients with the virus should be transferred to hospitals with special containment units and experience in treating the disease.
    The Dallas hospital at the center of the two Ebola cases, Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital, was facing renewed scrutiny over whether it had properly trained its workers. It sent Mr. Duncan home on Sept. 25 under the belief he had a sinus infection, only to have him return Sept. 28 when his conditions worsened.
    The C.D.C. said it would conduct a nationwide training conference call on Tuesday for thousands of health care workers to ensure they would be fully prepared to treat a patient with Ebola.
    “The care of Ebola patients can be done safely, but it’s hard to do it safely,” Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, director of the C.D.C., told reporters Sunday. “Even a single, inadvertent innocent slip can result in contamination.”
    Photo
    In response to the latest report of the second victim in Dallas, officials moved swiftly to clean and decontaminate many places where the nurse had been.CreditCooper Neill for The New York Times
    The stricken nurse reported a low-grade fever overnight Friday, officials said. It appeared that she drove herself to the emergency room of Presbyterian Hospital, where she worked, and was admitted and put in isolation 90 minutes later, the officials said.
    She had extensive contact with Mr. Duncan on multiple occasions after his second visit and admission to the hospital on Sept. 28, Dr. Frieden said.
    The nurse had been monitoring herself for symptoms of Ebola, under a regimen prescribed by the C.D.C. Health officials will now investigate who had been in contact with Mr. Duncan after he was admitted to the hospital and while he was in isolation, Dr. Frieden said.
    Before her trip to the emergency room, officials said, the nurse had not been at work for two days. A preliminary blood test was done at the state public health lab in Austin, and the positive result was received late Saturday evening, officials said. Late Sunday afternoon, the C.D.C. confirmed that she had Ebola after completing its own tests.
    Continue reading the main story


    The director of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that a Dallas hospital where a nurse became infected with Ebola did not follow worker safety guidelines in the course of treating Thomas Eric Duncan, the Liberian man who died last week.
    The woman was in stable condition on Sunday. Dr. Daniel Varga, chief clinical officer of Texas Health Resources, which oversees Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital, told reporters on Sunday that the worker had worn protective gear when coming in contact with Mr. Duncan, although he did not detail the type of contact.
    “This individual was following full C.D.C. precautions,” Dr. Varga said, adding, “Gown, glove, mask and shield.” Asked how concerned he was that the worker tested positive despite the precautions, he replied, “We’re very concerned.”
    Despite Dr. Varga’s reassurances about C.D.C. precautions having been followed, Dr. Frieden said it appeared that the woman had breached safety protocol at the hospital, possibly when removing the protective gear. Speaking on the CBS program “Face the Nation” and later at a news conference, he said that questioning of the worker had not identified precisely how a breach occurred, and that the cause of her infection was not known. Dr. Frieden said that everyone who had treated Mr. Duncan was now considered to be potentially exposed and that other cases of Ebola were possible.
    “We’re deeply concerned about this new development,” he said on the talk show.
    Photo
    Debra Buccellato, an emergency room nurse in Santa Rosa, Calif., said she had not undergone any active training for Ebola. CreditJason Henry for The New York Times
    The C.D.C. has said that for health workers in the United States, gloves, gowns, masks and face shields or goggles would be protection enough. But many health workers across the country, seeing images of people in Africa completely encased in full-body hazardous-material suits, have requested similar protection.
    “A lot of us are starting to get worried,” said Debra Buccellato, an emergency room nurse in Santa Rosa, Calif. “I’m a single mom, so if I got sick there’d be a huge void.”
    Ms. Buccellato, 38, said supervisors at her hospital had distributed information about C.D.C. guidelines, but added, “I have not seen any active training or practice drills, and I haven’t seen any new or upgraded personal protective equipment.”
    She said that she had emailed her manager to ask for more training, but that she was not sure that hazardous-material suits were the best option for her 90-bed facility, Sutter Santa Rosa Hospital.
    Photo
    The authorities distributed informational fliers.CreditLouis Deluca/The Dallas Morning News, via Associated Press
    “I don’t know how realistic it is to go to that level when you have X amount of patients to take care of and time issues,” Ms. Buccellato said. For now, she said, she plans to start wearing a face mask for her entire shift.
    On Sunday, National Nurses United, the country’s largest union and professional association of nurses, continued to sound the alarm and call for hazardous-material suits at all hospitals.
    “I’m angry about this,” said RoseAnn DeMoro, the executive director. “We want the first line of defense to be the most prepared. Our hospitals are resisting us. The C.D.C. doesn’t say that we need hazmat suits. If this doesn’t change dramatically, we will picket every hospital in this country if we have to.”

    President Obama on Sunday directed the C.D.C. to expedite its investigation into how the health care worker contracted the deadly virus, according to aWhite House statement.
    Continue reading the main story


    In an indication that the White House was taking steps in advance of any possible spread of the disease, Mr. Obama also directed federal officials to make sure that hospitals and health workers across the nation “are prepared to follow protocols should they encounter an Ebola patient,” the statement said. Mr. Obama was briefed by Lisa Monaco, the president’s assistant for homeland security, and then spoke by telephone with Sylvia Mathews Burwell, the secretary of health and human services.



    While other patients with Ebola have been treated in the United States in recent weeks, the nurse is only the second person — after Mr. Duncan — whose condition was diagnosed in the United States. All of the other patients — including medical personnel, relief workers and journalists — received a diagnosis while working in West Africa near Ebola victims, and were brought to this country for treatment.
    Four hospitals in the United States — Emory University Hospital in Atlanta; Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha; the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Md.; and St. Patrick Hospital in Missoula, Mont. — have high-containment units for isolating patients with dangerous infectious diseases, and medical teams at those facilities have conducted extensive training and drills for dealing with pathogens like Ebola.
    But in Dallas on Sunday, officials were trying to persuade residents to remain calm, and reminded them that their risk of exposure was low.
    Photo
    A police officer provided security on Sunday at the Dallas residence of a nurse who had contracted Ebola. A barrel, left, held hazardous materials from a cleanup.CreditLM Otero/Associated Press
    “You cannot contract Ebola other than from the bodily fluids of a symptomatic Ebola victim,” said County Judge Clay Jenkins, Dallas County’s chief executive, who himself has had close contact with those who lived with Mr. Duncan. “You cannot contract Ebola by walking by people on the street or by being around contacts who are not symptomatic. There’s nothing about this case that changes that basic premise of science.”
    City officials moved swiftly to clean and decontaminate many of the places where the nurse had been or had even briefly touched, including her apartment in a complex on Marquita Avenue, the complex’s common areas and the car she took to the hospital. Police officers were prohibiting access to her apartment. Officials believe the woman’s pet dog was inside the apartment, but was doing fine.
    “We have a plan in place to take care of the pet, and we do not believe that pet has any signs, and we’ll move accordingly later today,” Mayor Mike Rawlings of Dallas said.
    Remaining calm was easier said than done for many of the woman’s neighbors. Early Sunday, city officials knocked on the doors of nearby homes and called residences in the four blocks surrounding the complex to inform people that someone who lived in the neighborhood had tested positive for Ebola.

    “It’s a little creepy,” said Kara Lutley, 25, who lives across the street from the nurse’s apartment building. “It’s been in Dallas, but it hasn’t been this close.”
    At the hospital, the car the woman arrived in was decontaminated and secured so no one could go near it, officials said. “We decontaminated hand railings, everything in the parking lot, so everybody can feel comfortable that the exterior was taken care of,” Mr. Rawlings said.
    The hospital also took the unusual step on Sunday of prohibiting ambulances from bringing new patients into its emergency room. Officials said that the hospital was open, but that they had decided to put the emergency room on so-called diversion status because of staff limitations. “While we are on diversion we are also using this time to further expand the margin of safety by triple-checking our full compliance with updated C.D.C. guidelines,” hospital officials said in a statement. “We are also continuing to monitor all staff who had some relation to Mr. Duncan’s care even if they are not assumed to be at significant risk of infection.”
    Reporting was contributed by Jack Healy from Dallas; Sabrina Tavernise, Mark Landler and Emmarie Huetteman from Washington; and Denise Grady and Pam Belluck from New York.

    Sunday, October 12, 2014

    5 Ways to Motivate Yourself to Work Harder - TIME

    http://time.com/3486815/motivate-yourself-work-harder/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29

    Oct. 10, 2014
        

    You know success comes down to hard work. Now all you need are the tools to help you actually put in the hours



    Most of the time there’s no mystery to success–it comes down to simply putting in the hours and the sweat. But as we all know, the gap between knowing what’s required and actually getting yourself to do it can be vast.
    How do you cross that chasm? That’s what a recent visitor to question-and-answer Quora wanted to know, asking “How can I motivate myself to work hard?” The query apparently touched a nerve, as a host of respondents piled on with several hundred answers, ranging from spiritual pep talks to nitty-gritty time-management strategies. For those struggling to make sure their energy and commitment match their aspirations, it’s a goldmine of assistance. Here are a few of the best responses:

    1. Get clear on the end goal

    The trick to keeping your motivation up through low points and exhausted periods, traveler Marie Stein insists, isn’t any particular productivity technique or energy-boosting idea; rather, it’s being really, really clear about why you’re doing what you doing.
    “There is only one way for me to motivate myself to work hard: I don’t think about it as hard work. I think about it as part of making myself into who I want to be,” she writes. “The ‘hard’ part for me is choosing and accepting what it is that I have to do… Once I’ve made the choice to do something, I try not to think so much about how difficult or frustrating or impossible that might be; I just think about how good it must feel to be that, or how proud I might be to have done that.”
    Struggling to keep your focus on that end vision? “Just ask yourself: If you were the person that you want to be, then what would that person do?” suggests student Karl Bradley Saclolo.

    2. Take care of yourself physically

    Sometimes the problem isn’t mental, it’s physical. Your willpower can be at an all-time high, but if you don’t have the physical energy to complete your work, keeping your motivation up is still going to be difficult.
    “Are you tired a lot? Do you get enough sleep? Do you experience some constant unpleasantness, such as poor sinuses or a constant pain? Are you sad or upset or just lethargic all the time for no reason you can pinpoint?” asks freelance writer April Gunn. If so, “get to a doctor if you can for a routine physical, just to make sure everything is working properly. Try your best to get seven to nine hours of sleep a night. Listen to your body when it’s telling you things, seek out the causes of your discomfort, and deal with them as best you can.
    “It’s really hard to get and stay motivated to work hard if you’re not feeling your best,” she concludes.

    3. Think habits, not motivation

    Getting yourself to do something again and again by sheer force of will is extremely difficult. Getting yourself to do something by force of habit is easier. “Because motivation/willpower is a limited resource, it has helped me to instead build habits which, once instilled, don’t use willpower,” explains entrepreneur Bud Hennekes. “Start with small habits that help you be more productive and make you feel good. For example, you could aim to walk 15 minutes a day or work in short bursts of intense focus.”
    Entrepreneur James Clear has endorsed this advice on Inc.com, though he frames it a bit differently. Rather than habits, he talks about the power of “schedules,” but whichever term you use, the effect is the same–automating a behavior by integrating it into your routine means you rely less on willpower.

    4. Embrace discomfort

    Manager Mart Nijland suggests that those struggling with motivation remember the wisdom of bodybuilders: no pain, no gain. It is a cliche, but there’s no way to expand your abilities without going outside your comfort zone, so stop letting a little bit of unpleasantness sap your motivation. In fact, struggling a little is a good sign.
    “For anything you want to work harder for, you have to go beyond that threshold,” he writes, “because you grow into a totally different, much stronger person.”

    5. Bribe (or punish) yourself

    Not all routes to improved motivation are high-minded. One of the more effective ways will also motivate your dog–simple reward and punishment. “Make yourself an offer that you can’t refuse,” suggests analyst Deepak Singh (but don’t go as far as Don Corleone, please).

    Both positive and negative incentives can work. “For example, if you want to read a book, set a deadline and a reward. Say, if you love ice cream, you could eat some as soon as you finish the book,” suggests Singh. It might not sound very grand, but pushing yourself to complete a task by dangling treats (or the threat of public humiliation or a pay-out on a bet with a friend) appears to be effective.

    Saturday, October 11, 2014

    The Economic Costs of Ebola Are Rising Too - TIME

    http://time.com/3488874/ebola-economic-cost/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29

    Oct. 10, 2014
        

    The longer the outbreak lasts and the farther the disease travels, the harder it will hit global growth


    A few days ago I was about to board a flight from Beijing to Moscow and I called my mother in New Jersey to tell her I was going on the road. “Be very careful!” she exclaimed, with more angst in her voice than usual. I told her that even though relations between the U.S. and Russia were strained that I’d be perfectly fine in Moscow. But that’s not what she was worried about. “Be careful of Ebola!” she said.
    I was, of course, traveling nowhere near any Ebola-hit region — the disease has so far been generally confined to far-off West Africa. Her fear, though, is very real, and to a certain extent, rational. When an epidemic of a disease as deadly as Ebola infects the world’s headlines, it is only natural for people to consider curtailing their travel and other usually normal activities in an attempt to avoid the virus. As the disease spreads, people will become more likely to postpone business trips or cancel family vacations.

    And that ultimately could have serious economic consequences. Nothing of course is more tragic than the human cost of the Ebola outbreak. But as the crisis persists, economists are beginning to look at what the toll might be for the global economy as well. In a world still climbing out of the financial meltdown of six years ago, we can hardly afford any new disruptions to investment and consumer spending that could further drag down growth.
    That, however, is exactly what a sustained Ebola epidemic could do. We can get a pretty good idea of what can happen from looking at the impact of SARS in East Asia in 2003. Wherever the disease went, people stopped doing what they would normally do, in order to protect themselves, and that had an immediate effect on demand. Restaurants that would usually be jam-packed in central Hong Kong appeared abandoned; flights almost always crammed took off nearly empty; hotels emptied. Though the overall economic damage from SARS was in the end minimal, since it was contained relatively quickly, if the disease had spread more widely or become more entrenched, the cost would have risen precipitously.
    We can already see that happening in West Africa. A recent World Bank study estimated that if the epidemic is not contained quickly, it would cost Liberia 12% of its GDP by the end of 2015, and Sierra Leone 8.9% — a loss these poor nations can ill afford. If the outbreak spreads more widely to neighboring countries with larger populations and economies, the World Bank figures the two-year financial cost could reach $32.6 billion. Travel to the region has already plummeted. John Grant, executive vice president of aviation-information provider OAG, recently calculated that the number of scheduled flights out of the worst-hit countries have dropped by 64% since May. Major carriers including British Airways and Delta Air Lines have suspended flights. The president of Dubai-based Emirates noted that the Ebola outbreak has dampened demand in Asia for flights to Africa.
    What makes these losses even more unfortunate is that Africa has been in the middle of a major economic revival. For much of the past half-century, poor governance, bad policy and recurring conflict kept Africa on the sidelines of a major surge in growth and wealth throughout much of the developing world, especially in Asia. But in recent years Africa has finally joined the growth party. The International Monetary Fund expects the GDP of sub-Saharan Africa to jump 5.1% in 2014 — faster than any other region of the developing world except for emerging Asia. For now, the IMF sees the impact of Ebola on Africa overall as limited. But if the disease spreads, it could derail what was becoming one of the most encouraging stories in the emerging world.
    From a purely economic standpoint, the fact that the countries with the most severe Ebola outbreaks (Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea) are small and play a relatively minor role in world trade has minimized the impact the disease has had on the global economy. That, however, would change dramatically if Ebola spreads to larger economies that are more integrated into global finance and manufacturing. Imagine the chaos that could ensue if the empty restaurants and airplanes experienced in the SARS outbreak are repeated in New York City or London for any significant period of time and you’ll get an inkling of the damage Ebola could inflict on the world economy. That’s why the Ebola deaths recorded in the U.S. and Spain are of great economic significance.
    “A sustained outbreak of a high mortality disease like Ebola in any large or important economy in the global supply chain would imply significantly larger impact than SARS caused,” Barclays analyst Marvin Barth wrote in a recent report. Such a situation, he added, “remains a tail risk, but has jumped in probability to one that can no longer be ignored.”

    Predicting where Ebola might spread and how long the outbreak could last is, of course, impossible, and so is gauging its potential economic impact. What is clear, however, is that containing the disease is not just a humanitarian necessity but an economic imperative.

    Thursday, October 9, 2014

    Buffett Says ‘No-Brainer’ to Get a Mortgage to Short Rates - Bloomberg News

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-07/buffett-says-no-brainer-to-get-mortgage-to-short-rates.html?hootPostID=87d79ab1afb73e357a4b64a01b4f9d34

    By Noah Buhayar  Oct 8, 2014 7:03 AM ET  

    Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg
    Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett, 84, whose Omaha, Nebraska-based... Read More
    Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman ofBerkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A), said he was puzzled by the sluggish rebound in U.S. home construction amid near record-low interest rates and a broader recovery in the economy.
    “You would think that people would be lining up now to get mortgages to buy a home,” Buffett said today at a conference hosted by Fortune magazine in Laguna Niguel, California. “It’s a good way to go short the dollar, short interest rates. It is a no-brainer. But so far home construction pickup has been slower than I had anticipated.”
    Housing starts slumped in August from the highest level in almost seven years to a 956,000 annualized rate, Commerce Department data show. Slow wage growth and tighter lending standards have kept some would-be borrowers from buying a home.

    Buffett, 84, whose Omaha, Nebraska-based company has units that build houses and make carpet, paint and bricks, reiterated today that he expects home building to pick up as the market rebounds from the deepest slump in more than seven decades.
    “Household formation falls off dramatically in a recession, at least initially,” he said. “But that doesn’t last long. Hormones kick in and in-laws get tiresome, too.”
    Vacancy rates for U.S. apartments have been at 5 percent or less since the first quarter of 2012, according to Reis Inc., a property research firm.

    Car Dealerships

    Other parts of the economy have come back faster than housing. Buffett said today that he was surprised by the rate of increase in auto sales, in particular, and that he would have anticipated housing to be better given that carmakers are on pace to sell almost 17 million vehicles in the U.S. this year.
    Buffett agreed last week to buy Van Tuyl Group, a collection of 78 car dealerships, in a bet that the industry will consolidate. The company will be renamed Berkshire Hathaway Automotive.
    Buffett also emphasized the appeal of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, which can be refinanced if rates fall or remain outstanding if rates rise. That provides a way to bet against higher borrowing costs, with a hedge against a decline.
    Shorting interest rates is a bet they will rise. The average rate on a typical 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 4.19 percent last week, Freddie Mac surveys show. That compares with the 6.14 percent average during the past two decades.
    “It’s an incredibly attractive instrument,” Buffett said. “It’s a 30-minute instrument if you’ve been wrong on interest rates and it’s a 30-year instrument if you’ve been right on interest rates.”
    Berkshire is the largest shareholder in Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), the biggest U.S. home lender.
    To contact the reporter on this story: Noah Buhayar in New York at nbuhayar@bloomberg.net
    To contact the editors responsible for this story: Dan Kraut at dkraut2@bloomberg.net Dan Reichl

      Wednesday, October 8, 2014

      Hong Kong chief executive CY Leung faces questions over secret $7m payout from Australian firm - Sydney Morning Herald

      http://www.smh.com.au/national/hong-kong-chief-executive-cy-leung-faces-questions-over-secret-7m-payout-from-australian-firm-20141008-1134yv.html

      DateOctober 8, 2014 - 8:52PM

      Nick McKenzie, Richard Baker and John Garnaut


      Hong Kong chief executive CY Leung, centre. Photo: AP
      • Hong Kong's embattled chief executive, CY Leung, has pocketed millions in secret fees from a listed Australian company in return for supporting its Asian business ambitions, a Fairfax Media investigation can reveal.
      The arrangement is outlined in a secret contract dated December 2, 2011, before he was elected chief executive, in which Australian engineering company UGL agreed to pay the Beijing-backed politician £4 million (more than $A7 million).
      Richard Leupen at a UGL analyst presentation. Photo: Michael O'Sullivan
      The payments were made in two instalments, in 2012 and 2013,  after he became Hong Kong's top official.
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      The payments relate to a deal in which UGL bought an insolvent 200-year old British property services firm he was associated with called DTZ Holdings, whose prospects depended on Mr Leung's network of managers and clients in Hong Kong and mainland China.
      Mr Leung, who is currently battling unprecedented pro-democracy protests, strenuously defended his judgment to not declare the payments on his register of  personal interests, when Fairfax brought them to his attention. 
      The letter from Leupen to CY Leung.
      The sale left Mr Leung with a secretive financial windfall – including an additional guarantee that UGL would pay to him an outstanding £1.5 million bonus owed by the insolvent firm – but left DTZ's other shareholders and unsecured creditors with nothing, wiping out investments and debts worth tens of millions of dollars.
      Mr Leung's side deal equated to more than 5 per cent of the purchase price.
      A statement from his office said the payments related to past, not future, service and they were agreed at a time when he held no official position and before he was elected chief executive. 
      "The payments therefore arise from Mr Leung's resignation from DTZ, not any future service to be provided by him," said Mr Leung's spokesman, Michael Yu. 
      "Both the resignation from DTZ and conclusion of the agreement with UGL took place before Mr Leung was elected as the chief executive," he said. "There is no requirement under our current systems of declaration for Mr Leung to declare the above."
      Mr Leung's statement added that he had stepped down as a member of Hong Kong's executive council on October 3, 2011, prior to DTZ's sale to UGL, Mr Leung was a director of DTZ and chairman of its Asia-Pacific operations when he and fellow board members decided to appoint administrators to sell the company's assets to UGL for £76 million. 
      He announced his resignation from DTZ on November 24, formally confirmed his candidature for the role of Hong Kong chief executive on November 27 and signed the lucrative contract on December 2, 2011. 
       Mr Leung's resignation took effect on December 4, 2011, the day that UGL acquired DTZ.
      The arrangement raises transparency questions for Mr Leung and also the Australian purchasing company, which is in the process of selling the DTZ business on to a US private equity firm, TPG. 
      DTZ's administrators, Ernst & Young, and its chairman at the time of its sale to UGL, Tim Melville Ross, said they were not aware of the Hong Kong politician's agreement with the Australian company. 
      The terms are set out under a cover letter from UGL's chief executive, Richard Leupen.
      "It has been a pleasure getting to know you during this time and I look forward to continuing our relationship into the future," wrote Mr Leupen. "Your achievements in Hong Kong and China have been outstanding." 
      An attached schedule shows Mr Leung agreed to ensure that nominated members of his Asian management team remained in place and also that he would "provide such assistance in the promotion of the UGL Group and the DTZ group as UGL may reasonably require".
      He also agreed to not to compete with UGL and to act as "a referee and advisor from time to time", adding in a handwritten note that his support was on the condition it "does not create any conflict of interest".
      The wording appears to clash with Mr Leung's statement that the payments only related to past dealings. 
      The terms also contrast with DTZ's 2011 annual report, which states that Mr Leung was not to receive any payments beyond those statutorily required if his employment ceased due to a change of ownership.
      In detailed answers to questions, the Australian company UGL underscored Mr Leung's immense importance to the Chinese operations of the company they were purchasing.
      Crucially, UGL said the payment agreement was made not in hope of soliciting favours for the business but out of fear that he could destroy it. 
      "It was entered into solely to ensure CY Leung did not move to a competitor or set up or promote any business in competition with DTZ, or poach any people from DTZ, and hence to ensure the business retained its value after the UGL acquisition," said UGL. 
      "The China/HK business was critical to UGL's assessment of DTZ's value at the time of the acquisition," it said. 
      "It is standard business practice to pay for such undertakings, as you are requiring the individual to take on obligations and to forgo future opportunities."
      UGL said the documentation did not include a clause to invalidate Mr Leung's payment in the event that he succeeded in his bid for office because management did not think that he would win. 
      "At the time of the negotiations, media coverage suggested that other candidates were favoured to be elected, so the possibility of CY Leung securing office was not the focus of UGL's negotiations," said UGL. 
      Leading Australian corporate integrity expert Neville Tiffen said the lack of transparency around the payments raised serious probity questions.
      These questions extend to whether Mr Leung or UGL disclosed the proposed payments to DTZ's UK administrators or directors at the time the administrators and DTZ board agreed to the beleaguered company's rapid sale.
      Such questions have come at an awkward time for Mr Leung, who is battling to assuage tens of thousands of students and supporters who have paralysed much of the city's central business district over the past ten days, calling for his resignation. 
      The protesters accuse Mr Leung of working for Beijing, at the expense of Hong Kong's promised democracy and autonomy, and failing to defend the institutions that underpin one of the world's most vibrant and successful cities. 
      Both sides have retreated from earlier positions and protest numbers have thinned ahead of anticipated negotiations. 
      UGL, the Australian firm, conceded that Mr Leung's multimillion-dollar payment deal was not disclosed in any public document but said there was no duty otherwise. 
      It said the main creditor, Royal Bank of Scotland, was aware of the payment and deducted the amount from the DTZ purchase price. 
      "This was a matter for the seller, as it was a necessary payment for the protection of the value of the business," said UGL. "The acquisition would not have proceeded if this value was not protected and assured." 
      DTZ's administrator, Ernst and Young, said in a statement it did not know about the arrangement. 
      "The Administrators have no detailed knowledge of any specific arrangements made between UGL and any other party." 
      The former chairman of DTZ, Tim Melville Ross, also said he was unaware of the deal between Mr Leung and UGL.. 
       "If there were any discussions between Mr Leung and UGL, these were quite separate from the negotiations between DTZ and UGL," he said.
      Corporate integrity expert and former head of global compliance for Rio Tinto, Neville Tiffen, examined the secret documents for Fairfax Media.
      Mr Tiffen said: "Whenever you are offering financial benefits to public officials or directors of a company, dealings must be transparent. Without transparency, people's conduct is brought into question."

      Tuesday, October 7, 2014

      2 Hong Kong college students emerge as leaders in mass protest - Los Angeles Times

      http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-hong-kong-leaders-20141006-story.html#page=1

      Just months after being elected leader of Hong Kong's biggest university student group, Alex Chow joined in the city's annual, orderly July 1 pro-democracy march. But in a move that foreshadowed last week's massive sit-ins, Chow and a committed core of activists decided to break from the usual script.
      After the march, they sat down in a road in the Central District, locking arms and chanting, "Our own government, our own choice."
      After midnight, police moved in to break up the unauthorized gathering, picking up the kicking and screaming activists and arresting 511, including Chow. As one of the biggest confrontations between Hong Kong police and the public in years, it left a deep impression on the 24-year-old comparative literature and sociology student, whose ponderous eyes are prone to welling up with tears.

      "There were tattoo artists, massage therapists, construction workers, engineers, teachers, photographers, retired civil servants. I really felt sorry for them," said Chow, writing about the day's events a few days later in an online forum. "In the past 30 years, the democracy movement has been too slow and too painstaking. The power of civil disobedience lies … in the blood and tears of everyone who is behind the struggle."
      Chow's frustration has catapulted him to the center of the biggest political crisis facing leaders in Hong Kong — and Beijing — in years. Whether more blood and tears are soon to come rests, to a large extent, on Chow's young shoulders.
      Chow has worked closely with founders of two other groups, a 3-year-old high school student organization called Scholarism and a recent protest movement called Occupy Central With Love and Peace, to mobilize the largest and most disruptive demonstrations in the territory in decades.

      But the government has shown a preference to deal with Chow's Hong Kong Federation of Students, a storied organization dating to 1958 that counts many of the territory's current leaders as alumni. And so it is that Chow and his more introverted 21-year-old deputy, Lester Shum, have emerged as first among equals as protest organizers and now, perhaps, negotiators.
      A fast talker skilled at impassioned oratory, Chow in recent weeks has proved himself adept at rousing crowds who have poured into the streets to demand a free choice of candidates in the city's 2017 election for chief executive — a framework that Communist Party leaders in Beijing have explicitly rejected. On Saturday, dressed in dark blue jeans and matching blue nubuck oxfords, Chow told thousands of demonstrators occupying government headquarters: "This is not a student movement; this is a Hong Kongers' movement."
      We are just ordinary students. What we're fighting for is our future, for a democratic system.- Lester Shum of the Hong Kong Federation of Students
      Whether Chow and Shum can steer the movement to a peaceful conclusion and win real concessions remains unclear. Even many student protesters, let alone older demonstrators, say they aren't taking orders from Chow and Shum and have doubts about their strategy.
      "This is a self-initiated, spontaneous protest and we'll go home when we want, not when someone tells us to," said Tony Tsang, 19, listening on Thursday night as Chow warned that the Beijing-backed chief executive of Hong Kong, Leung Chun-ying, must step down or students would "occupy" government buildings. "I don't think he should be asking C.Y. Leung to quit; they would just replace him with another guy who's exactly the same."
      Less than an hour later, as midnight approached, Leung offered to hold talks with Chow's group — but refused to resign — and Chow backed away from his threats. News of the detente was met with ambivalence among the demonstrators.
      cComments
      • The authorities' strategy had worked. Instead of using force to evict the protesters from the streets, they want the citizens themselves to speak up and complain about the inconveniences they had to put up with. Many residents have little sympathy for protesters, because their livelihood...
        J. VON HETTLINGEN
        AT 3:54 PM OCTOBER 06, 2014
      Veteran observers of the student-led movement, though, have praised Chow's and Shum's leadership — in particular their move Thursday to reach out to the government for dialogue. This may have averted, or at least delayed, an escalation of tension, these observers said.
      "They are as passionate organizers as they are good strategists," said Dixon Ming Sing, associate professor of social science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and a longtime researcher of the city's democracy movement.
      Still, their meteoric rise to global attention has surprised some. Nelson Lee, a lecturer at the Chinese University of Hong Kong who taught Shum in two politics courses, said the college junior "was always on the quiet side."
      Shum, who switched his major to politics after one year studying engineering, was passionate about getting an intellectual grounding, Lee recalled. Lee's "Politics of Culture" class, which delves into Marxist theories and neocapitalism, is popular among young activists, and Shum appealed to Lee in person to enroll in the oversubscribed course.

      Shum, more casual in dress and deliberate in speech than Chow, was nervously chewing his thumb and index finger before Saturday night's rally. Taking the stage in white wrinkled shorts and black flip-flops, he appeared to be fighting a lingering cough.
      "We are just ordinary students. What we're fighting for is our future, for a democratic system," he said, his voice growing hoarse. After wrapping up his remarks, he performed his trademark slight bow to the audience. "All of you have worked so hard," he said.
      On Sunday, as protesters again appeared at loggerheads with the government and Leung said forcefully that demonstrators needed to clear the streets in time for the workweek to start Monday, Chow and Shum were facing calls from many quarters to declare victory and retreat.
      Hong Kong University President Peter Mathieson urged all of his school's students and staff to leave the protest zones. "I am making this appeal from my heart because I genuinely believe that if you stay, there is a risk to your safety," he said, adding to an ominous sense that police might use substantial force to disperse the crowds.
      Bao Tong, a former secretary to the reformist mainland China Communist Party leader Zhao Ziyang, who sympathized with Tiananmen Square protesters in 1989, penned an open message Sunday to the protesters urging them to wind down the demonstrations:
      "The seeds have already been sown, and they need time to lie fallow," Bao said. "No great task can be achieved all at once; they all need some time to gestate."
      But Willy Lam, a political analyst and professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said Chow and Shum fear if they go home now, they'll lose all momentum.
      "They don't want to give up without achieving something tangible," he said. "Even if police are to come out in force, they are determined to hang on."
      Lam said that stance was understandable "because they are the first ever student leaders from Hong Kong to have made this big achievement, to apply really big pressure and assemble more than 150,000 people on the streets."
      But what is unclear, Lam said, "is whether their decision to hang tough, to hang on, might be the best solution going into the next step." To achieve serious revisions to the election rules dictated by Beijing, Lam said, the students need to build a united front with other stakeholders, including Occupy Central and liberal lawmakers in Hong Kong's legislature, as well as nongovernmental organizations.
      At Saturday night's rally, Shum acknowledged that he and Chow — who have been arrested several times for civil disobedience — were taking serious personal risks. "We might be in for big trouble," he said. "We might have to go to jail. Alex and I each have got five charges on our back."
      But he and Chow seemed to have made a clear choice.
      Before the July sit-in, Chow said he received an email from his father, who was overseas. His dad expressed support for his son but also concern that he might end up like a "Tiananmen mother," a reference to a group of women who lost children in the 1989 crackdown.
      cComments
      • The authorities' strategy had worked. Instead of using force to evict the protesters from the streets, they want the citizens themselves to speak up and complain about the inconveniences they had to put up with. Many residents have little sympathy for protesters, because their livelihood...
        J. VON HETTLINGEN
        AT 3:54 PM OCTOBER 06, 20141
      Addressing the crowd that night, Chow choked up and covered his tear-streaked face.
      "Even if we can win a bit of democracy," he said before his arrest, "that should be the best reward for my parents."
      Law is a special correspondent.