Is Trump about to repeat George W Bush's worst mistake? - Guardian

Is Trump about to repeat George W Bush's worst mistake?

Michael H Fuchs

Wednesday 20 September 2017 20.00 AEST Last modified on Wednesday 20 September 2017 20.01 AEST

In 2003, the United States initiated perhaps the greatest strategic disaster in US history by diverting attention from a necessary war in Afghanistan to an unnecessary war in Iraq. The Iraq war resulted in hundreds of thousands dead and wounded, untold economic catastrophe, states in the Middle East in complete ruin, and the rise of Isis – all while the effort to go after terrorists in Afghanistan languished.

President Donald Trump’s first speech before the United Nations General Assembly this week made clear that Trump wants to take America down a similar path by diverting much-needed attention from North Korea to starting an unnecessary conflict with Iran.

If the United States and the world cannot convince Trump to support the Iran nuclear deal and instead focus on real problems, America may once again plunge into a violent disaster in the Middle East, and in the process damage efforts to deal with a country that already has nuclear weapons.

The threat from North Korea is real, and Trump used his speech to outline the need for an international pressure campaign against Kim Jong-un. There is little disagreement on the need for a tough stance against North Korea, as evidenced by the UN Security Council’s recent unanimous vote to impose new sanctions.

But Trump is having a difficult time implementing a coherent strategy on North Korea. He has picked a fight with America’s South Korean ally, whose support is essential. He frequently hurls hyperbolic rhetoric, raising the chances of miscalculation that could lead to conflict. And he talks as though war is inevitable, a theme he reiterated before the world’s leaders when he said, “Rocket Man [Kim Jong-un] is on a suicide mission for himself and his regime.”

Significant challenges remain in dealing with North Korea, even if Trump can get his own act together. China is unwilling to apply maximum pressure on North Korea for fear Pyongyang will collapse. Enforcing sanctions elsewhere is often like putting fingers in a dam full of leaks. It’s unclear what kind of a diplomatic deal the United States wants with North Korea. And little seems capable of convincing Kim Jong-un that he will be safe without nuclear weapons.

With obstacles this great, Trump should be providing leadership in pursuing an effective international strategy to deter North Korea, reassure US allies, add sanctions pressure, and engage in real diplomacy.

Instead, Trump is looking to rip up the deal that is currently preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. If he succeeds in doing so, he will help turn Iran into the next North Korea and ratchet up the chances of conflict.

The deal prevents Iran from getting a nuclear weapon for years. UN inspectors have verified that Iran is complying with the terms of the deal. Even Trump’s administration has certified twice that Iran is living up to its end of the bargain. Moreover, the world backs the deal, with Russia, China, and Europe all helping to enforce it.

If an Iran-style nuclear deal had been on the table at any point with North Korea, the United States would have jumped at the opportunity (and in fact came very close to making the Agreed Framework deal with North Korea work in the 1990s). Tearing up the Iran deal would be the strategic equivalent of shooting oneself in the foot.

But that’s exactly what Trump seems to want. In his UN speech, Trump placed the Iran nuclear deal in his sights: “The Iran deal was one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into. Frankly, that deal is an embarrassment to the United States, and I don’t think you’ve heard the last of it. Believe me.” Recent reports back up this message that Trump intends to rip up the deal, and US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley almost said as much in a recent speech on Iran.

It’s hard to overstate the potential disaster of destroying the Iran deal. Iran would be incentivized to race to get a nuclear weapon. The partners that helped make the Iran deal happen – Europe, China, Russia – would leave the US behind and continue doing business with Iran, making impossible any renewal of international pressure. And if Iran actually acquired a nuclear weapon, it could embolden Iran to escalate its regional provocations. All of this would result in more confrontation with the United States, and greater chances of war.

In fact, withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal would undermine Trump’s efforts to convince the world that he is looking for a diplomatic solution with North Korea: if Trump is willing to rip up a deal preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, why should anyone believe he’s willing to deal with North Korea? And why would North Korea deal with Trump if he doesn’t live up to US commitments?

In 2002, less than a year after invading Afghanistan, President George . Bush used his speech before the UN General Assembly to make the case to the world for action against Iraq. Let’s hope, when history looks back on Trump’s first UN speech, it’s not viewed as the opening salvo in a completely preventable war with Iran.

Michael Fuchs is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, and most recently was a deputy assistant secretary of state for east Asian and pacific affairs.

10 Charges You Should Never Put on Your Credit Card - Fortune

10 Charges You Should Never Put on Your Credit Card

Kristy Welsh,GoBankingRates

Mar 14, 2017

Even though building credit and racking up credit card rewards can be great for your finances in general, there are some things you should never put on your credit card because you can incur big fees and higher interest rates. Avoid putting the following expenses on credit cards so that you don't end up making it harder for yourself to get out of debt.

1. Mortgage Payments

If you've ever wondered, "Can I pay my mortgage with a credit card?", the answer is maybe, but that doesn't make it a good idea. If you're low on cash one month, it might be tempting to pay your mortgage payment with a credit card that has a high credit limit. But there are problems with this thinking.

For one, some mortgage companies won't let you make direct payments with a credit card. Although some third-party companies will help you use your credit card to pay your mortgage, they often charge fees for this convenience — which will just add to the amount you're paying in bills each month.

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Should you be able to circumvent your mortgage servicer and find a way to pay your mortgage with a credit card, it's still a bad idea if you don't plan on paying off your credit card balance in full each month: You're already being charged interest on your mortgage, so paying more interest on your credit card balance is both expensive and avoidable.

Lastly, charging a large amount to your credit card will lower the amount of credit available to you, which could lower your credit score. This could also happen if you choose to pay your property taxes with credit cards.

Find Out: 8 Options When You Can't Afford Your Mortgage Anymore

2. Small Indulgences

Sure, it can be convenient to whip out your credit card whenever you buy a cup of coffee or a sandwich at the deli. And sometimes, depending on the cash-back credit card or rewards credit card you use, you're even rewarded for purchases with free cash or airline miles.

But if you swipe your credit card for every small purchase, your credit card balance could grow out of control. And the higher your balance, the harder it will be to pay off or even afford the minimum payment. At the end of the month, you'll be left wondering if those 20 lattes were really worth it. Plus, some store owners will charge a fee if you use your credit card to purchase items under a certain amount of money, typically less than $5.

Instead of using your credit card to pay for small, discretionary items, consider using cash. Not only will it save you from running up your balance, but it'll help you stick to a budget. By only using cash for small purchases, you'll likely spend less.

3. Cash Advances

A cash advance is a withdrawal or a short-term loan in which you're borrowing against your credit card account. If possible, avoid taking a credit card cash advance — or else you might be subject to high fees and interest rates. Your APR and fees will vary depending on your bank and credit card issuer, but in general, the APR on a cash advance is higher than a purchase APR.

For example, you might have a credit card that charges a purchase APR of 11.00% or 12.00%. However, the APR for cash advances might be 2 or 3 percentage points higher. And, your fees might equal $10 or a small percentage of each transaction — whichever is greater. This is why many personal finance experts highly discourage getting a cash advance from your credit card.

Of course, some situations call for a cash advance — but these should be for emergencies only. And always look for a credit card that offers low interest and fees for cash advances.

4. Household Bills

Some strong arguments exist for putting household bills — such as utilities — on a credit card. Your department of water and power, for example, might let you pay your bills online with a credit card without being charged a fee for the service. So it might be tempting to link your credit card to the account to get rewards. And if your servicer lets you use automatic payments to pay your bills with a credit card, that's one less bill you don't have to remember to pay on time.

Still, relying on credit cards to pay too many of your household bills could get you in financial trouble, especially if you have a bad habit of not checking your credit card balance, which could lead to a missed credit card payment, interest charges and late fees.

Consider linking your debit card instead. But again, make sure you regularly watch your checking account. Otherwise, your balance might fall into the negatives if you don't have enough money in your account to cover your bills, and you might get stuck having to ask your bank to waive overdraft fees.

5. Medical Bills

When you don't have enough money to pay for medical bills, one of the worst things that you can do is put them on your credit card. Medical care is expensive, and paying for it with a credit card that charges high interest on top of this is could be a bad idea.

If you have large medical bills that you can't pay immediately, don't automatically pull out your credit card. Instead, contact the hospital's financial office and see if you can set up a payment plan or negotiate medical bills. Chances are, you will be paying much less in interest to the hospital than your credit card issuer will charge you.

6. College Tuition

College tuition is expensive. In fact, it might outweigh the cost of living, depending on where you live. If you're a broke college student, it can be convenient to pay your tuition with a credit card, but think again.

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If you don't have a steady paycheck to rely on, you might not be able to pay off your credit card before you incur interest. Plus, many schools will tack on a convenience fee of 2 percent or even 3 percent for paying your tuition with a credit card.

Bottom line: It's not worth it. If you're having trouble making your tuition payments on time, talk to someone in your school's financial aid office. They'll fill you in on the types of low-interest student loans, grants, scholarships or work-study programs available to you to help pay your education costs.

7. Your Taxes

Although it's possible — and perfectly legal — to pay your debt to Uncle Sam with a credit card, there's an excellent reason why you shouldn't: Your tax processor will likely charge you a convenience fee of around 2 percent for using a credit card. If you owe Uncle Sam thousands of dollars, a 2 percent fee can really add up.

The IRS currently lists fees that vary depending on your payment processor. If you use a debit card to pay your taxes via Pay1040.com, the IRS states you'll be charged a $2.59 flat fee. But if you pay your taxes with a credit card, the fee jumps to 1.87 percent, with a minimum fee of $2.59. Meanwhile, paying with a debit credit via PayUSAtax.com requires a $2.65 flat fee; using a credit card will incur a 1.98 percent fee, with a minimum fee of $2.69.

Find Out: What to Do When You Can't Pay Your Tax Bill

8. Automobiles

Some people claim to have used a credit card to pay for a car — and they don't regret it, partially because they earned tons of points after doing so. Additionally, Consumer Reports advises that you pay your car down payment with a credit card because if the auto dealer goes out of a business, you can challenge the payment with your credit card issuer.

Still, don't resort to this payment method unless you're confident you can afford it and possibly high-interest charges. If you don't have enough money for a down payment, perhaps you should delay your car purchase or find a used or new car you can afford more easily. Ask a financial advisor and speak with the car dealership first to make sure they'll accept your credit card payment.

9. Down Payments of Any Kind

Reconsider using a credit card for a down payment on anything, including a house or a car. For one, you can't typically use a credit card to pay your house down payment. You can, however, use it to get a cash advance to pay for it — but that's not a good idea either.

If the only reason you want to use a credit card for a down payment is because you can take advantage of your card's high credit limit, that might be a sign that you can't really afford the down payment. And if you don't have the money for the down payment on a loan, don't get the loan. Otherwise, you're just adding a large cost to the sales price of your item — the high-interest rate charges.

A large purchase like a down payment can dramatically change your debt-to-income ratio, which can lead to a change in your credit score. If your credit card balance is too high in comparison to your credit limit, your credit score might suffer. The same is true if you miss payments because you lose control of your account balance.

10. Your Business Startup Expenses

Using your personal credit card to pay for business expenses or to finance startup costs can be a bad idea. It generally takes at least several years for a business to become profitable, and in the meantime, you might be paying extraordinarily high interest on debt that you cannot afford to pay back immediately. And if your business fails, you might be in deep credit card debt.

Sure, there are some upsides to using a credit card for business expenses. But if you do need to borrow a lot of money to kick off your business, you might be better off getting a small business loan. Interest rates on credit cards are typically higher than rates on traditional loans, according to Entrepreneur.com.

An even better idea: See if you can raise money through a crowdfunding website or through friends and family.This article originally appeared on GoBankingRates.com.

Northrop Grumman will buy rocket maker Orbital due to Korean crisis - Reuters

(Reuters) - U.S. defense contractor Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC.N) said on Monday it would buy missile and rocket maker Orbital ATK Inc (OA.N) for about $7.8 billion in cash, giving it access to lucrative contracts with NASA and the U.S. Army.

The deal, which comes as North Korea tests threatening missiles, will also help Northrop increase its arsenal of missile defense systems and is a rare departure for the company, which has not made a large acquisition in several years. It last bought TRW Inc in 2002 for about $7.8 billion.

The acquisition, which would establish Orbital as a new, fourth business sector under Northrop, also comes ahead of a likely jump in demand from the planned upgrades of U.S. ballistic systems.

The Air Force last summer called for proposals to replace its aging nuclear cruise missiles and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system as the military moves ahead with a costly modernization of older atomic weapons systems.

Northrop’s offer price of $134.50 per Orbital share represents a premium of 22 percent over the stock’s Friday close. Orbital’s shares were trading at $131.75 before the bell.

Northrop will assume $1.4 billion in Orbital’s net debt and the deal is expected to close in the first half of 2018.

Orbital’s main businesses of missile defense, government satellites and the prospect to develop an in-orbit satellite servicing business “clearly make sense” for Northrop, analysts at Stifel said on Sunday following news reports of a potential deal.

Orbital is one of two companies hired by NASA to fly cargo to the International Space Station under an initial contract worth up to $3.1 billion.

Northrop’s other businesses, such as aerospace systems, mission systems and technology services, provide manned aircraft, electronic warfare systems and network defense services.

The two companies’ complementary offerings will help increase efficiency, boost revenue and save costs, Northrop Chief Executive Wes Bush said in a statement.

“Given that Northrop already operates in the space field, it is possible that there could be some overlapping activity or increased vertical integration that could prompt regulatory scrutiny,” Vertical Research Partners analyst Robert Stallard said in a client note on Monday.

On a pro-forma basis, Northrop said it expects 2017 sales of $29.5 billion to $30 billion.

Perella Weinberg Partners LP is the financial adviser to Northrop, while Citigroup is advising Orbital.

Reporting by Arunima Banerjee and Supantha Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Sai Sachin Ravikumar

The Most Expensive City for Renters Will Surprise You - Fortune

The Most Expensive City for Renters Will Surprise You

Lucinda Shen

Apr 21, 2016

It's not London, New York, or even the reigning champion over the world's most expensive housing market, Hong Kong.

No—the city with the least affordable rent is Beijing, where rent costs eats up roughly 123% the average salary. Smog included. Although Beijing's nominal monthly rent is $789 on average, the ordinary worker cannot afford to live in typical housing alone, according to the study from U.K.-based nonprofit organization, Global Cities Business Alliance, since rent costs exceed their salary.

The second and third most expensive cities to live in are Abu Dhabi and Hong Kong, where rent is 70% and 64% of earnings respectively. T he organization analyzed rent and income data from 15 major cities.

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“Big cities like Beijing are victims of their own success: Rapid growth has magnetized workers, but they now need to deliver enough houses so that workers enjoy living there,” said Lesley Saville, CEO of the Global Cities Business Alliance in a statement. "Beijing is trying to address the problem with measures such as building new underground lines to unlock housing and by directly funding development, which will help."

In comparison, rent in New York and San Francisco, two cities known for high housing prices, average around 63% or 51% of earnings respectively.

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Redfin’s chief economist looked at the lower end of the market.

The rising housing costs have pushed workers in Beijing further into surrounding areas. According to the Alliance, the average Beijing worker commutes 104 minutes, round trip, for their job—making it the city with the second longest commute time behind Mexico City, where employees travel 113 minutes, in the world.

But some citizens have taken less conventional ways to deal with surging housing costs in Beijing. Some have started living in the small windowless basements of apartment buildings, or in one case, the sewers, Reuters reported.

And it's not unwarranted. Housing prices have risen 18% in the 12 months ending March. But there are other problematic implications to the high cost of rent in Beijing. While consumers are spending the majority of their paychecks on rent, they also have far less money to spend on other goods and services, which can't be good for a country trying to stimulate growth and transition to a consumer-based economy.

Mattis has "plenty of options" on North Korea, Nikki Haley says in White House briefing - CBS News

By KATHRYN WATSON CBS NEWS September 15, 2017, 12:32 PM

Mattis has "plenty of options" on North Korea, Nikki Haley says in White House briefing

Last Updated Sep 15, 2017 3:24 PM EDT

Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has "plenty of options" for addressing North Korea, in light of Pyongyang's latest missile test that launched over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean early Friday.

Haley, in a White House press briefing with reporters Friday, said tough sanctions are in effect against the North Korean regime, and 90 percent of trade has been cut off against North Korea. Haley emphasized the importance of pushing through "as many diplomatic options as we have." But the Pentagon also has options, she said.

Haley briefed reporters alongside National Security Adviser Gen. H.R. McMaster, after the intermediate-range ballistic missile traveled for 19 minutes before landing in the Pacific Ocean, according to South Korea's military. The missile launch is believed to be North Korea's longest yet.

"I have no problem with kicking it to General Mattis because I think he has plenty of options," Haley said.

McMaster also did not rule out military intervention.

"There is a military option," McMaster said.

North Korea test-fires another missile over Japan

McMaster's comments contradict those of former chief Trump strategist Steve Bannon, who recently left the White House to rejoin Breitbart News. Bannon, shortly before his departure, told The American Prospect, "There's no military solution" to North Korea.

Military action is precarious because North Korea could easily strike its southern neighbor and kill potentially millions of people in nearby Seoul.

"There is a consensus among all key nations that denuclearization of the peninsula is the only acceptable objective," McMaster said.

Mr. Trump certainly hasn't closed off the possibility of military action in North Korea. In the past, the president has said the U.S. is "locked and loaded," although he has also said military intervention isn't the preferred route.

On Friday, Mr. Trump — asked if he was running out of diplomatic options for dealing with North Korea — said, "No."

Haley said North Korea will be "front and center" at Mr. Trump's first U.N. General Assembly in New York next week.

In Friday's briefing, McMaster was forced to address an early morning tweet from Mr. Trump, after an explosion at a London train station injured at least 22 people. A London police official has called it a "terrorist incident." Mr. Trump tweeted that the, "sick and demented people" were "in the sights of Scotland Yard," prompting questions about whether Mr. Trump divulged sensitive or even classified information from an earlier call with British Prime Minister Theresa May.

Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump

Another attack in London by a loser terrorist.These are sick and demented people who were in the sights of Scotland Yard. Must be proactive!

8:42 PM - Sep 15, 2017

McMaster struggled to directly answer the question, eventually saying he thinks the president was merely saying this kind of attack is what the U.K. and U.S. are trying to prevent.

On the domestic front, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the president will assemble a plan for immigration legislation, including how to handle "Dreamers" affected by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, in the next seven to 10 days. The Trump administration earlier this month announced it will be ending the program, and has given Congress six months to find a legislative solution. Earlier this week, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said they struck a deal with Trump on DACA and border security that excludes funding for a border wall, although the White House disputed that account.

CBS News' White House Correspondent Mark Knoller contributed to this report.

Updates from earlier below:

1:52 p.m.: Sanders says Trump "is still 100 percent committed to the wall"

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Mr. Trump "is still 100 percent committed to the wall," after House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the president made a deal with them about the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program that excludes a border wall.

The White House has pushed back on that message, saying there is no such agreement to exclude a border wall.

Sanders said the president will lay out a plan for a broad immigration bill including DACA in the next seven to 10 days.

1:40 p.m.: "There is a military option," McMaster says of North Korea

Military actions are possible, in light of North Korea's continued missile tests, McMaster said.

"There is a military option," the top general said, adding it's "not what we prefer to do." He pressed for any action, in partnership with other nations, "short of war."

1:39 p.m.: McMaster addresses Trump's call with British prime minister

McMaster was asked what the president meant by an early morning tweet in which he said such "sick and demented people" were "in the sights of Scotland Yard." Mr. Trump spoke with British Prime Minister Theresa May early Friday.

Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump

Another attack in London by a loser terrorist.These are sick and demented people who were in the sights of Scotland Yard. Must be proactive!

8:42 PM - Sep 15, 2017

d privacy

"I think what the president was communicating ... Scotland Yard has been a leader as our FBI has been," McMaster said, claiming the president's tweet only meant this kind of attack is what the U.K. and U.S. are trying to prevent.

There was some concern that Mr. Trump was sharing sensitive or even classified information from an ally.

1:34 p.m.: McMaster says U.S. is "out of road" on North Korea

McMaster said the can has been kicked down the road on North Korea, and options are limited.

"We've been kicking the can down the road, and we're out of road," McMaster said.

1:32 p.m.: North Korea will be "front and center" at U.N., Haley says

Haley said North Korea will be a priority issue as the U.N. General Assembly convenes in New York next week.

"There are no shortage of issues, with North Korea being front and center."

Haley said it's important with North Korea to try all the diplomatic approaches at U.S. disposal.

"They continue to be provocative, they continue to be reckless," Haley said, adding that Defense Secretary Jim Mattis now has "plenty of options."

1:29 p.m.: Haley: It's a new day at the U.N.

Haley said it's a "new day" at the U.N., and there are a "lot" of changes happening there, as Mr. Trump prepares for his first appearance at the U.N. General Assembly next week.

"They are all very anxious to hear what he has to say," Haley said of other nations attending the summit.

Vice President Mike Pence will conduct two briefings, one on human rights and another on peacekeeping, Haley said, adding the U.S. has helped save $500 million on peacekeeping efforts.

1:24 p.m.: McMaster: The U.S. stands with the United Kingdom and France

McMaster acknowledged the possible attacks in the U.K. and France, saying the U.S. will stand with its allies against evil.

"The U.S. remains committed to defeating terrorist organizations as well as their evil ideology," McMaster said.

Australia, China Seek to Boost Economic Ties as U.S. Pulls Back - Bloomberg

Australia, China Seek to Boost Economic Ties as U.S. Pulls Back

Bloomberg News

September 16, 2017, 4:41 PM GMT+10

Australian and Chinese officials held talks in Beijing Saturday aimed at tightening trade and economic ties between the two countries, just as the Trump administration increases scrutiny on the trading practices of the world’s biggest exporter.

The two nations worked across “a whole range of issues, starting off first and foremost with our combined commitments to grow our economies but also resisting against protectionism,” Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison told reporters after the meeting. The officials also discussed investment, competition and income policies. China’s capital curbs are not badly affecting Chinese investment in Australia, Morrison said.

Scott Morrison speaks in Beijing on Sept. 16. Photographer: Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photos

Australia is the most China-dependent economy in the developed world and two-way trade between the two countries is worth more than A$155 billion ($124 billion). A large chunk of that is Australian raw materials including iron ore and coal that helped build and fuel the plants at the center of China’s industrialization.

China is now trying to transition from a heavy-industry driven economy to one led by internal consumption and this is showing up in tourism Down Under: some 1.2 million Chinese visitors came to Australia in 2016, compared to just 500 people 40 years earlier.

Yet China has faced a backlash over investment in Australia. Polls show Australians think too much Chinese property buying is allowed Down Under, where buoyant house prices have become a political issue. The government tightened scrutiny of farmland sales to Chinese buyers in 2015, with purchases of at least A$15 million needing to be screened for approval. When it comes to investment in China, Australia is behind, putting more cash into the tiny nation of Papua New Guinea than the world’s second-largest economy.

In a statement ahead of the meeting, Morrison and Trade Minister Steven Ciobo said that Australia and China share an interest in open global trade and investment. The two nations signed a Free Trade Agreement in 2014.

The closeness of the two nations when it comes to trade stands in contrast to the growing tension between the U.S. and China. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer last month announced an investigation into China’s practices on intellectual property, technology transfer and innovation.

— With assistance by Tian Chen, and Michael Heath