Sunday, September 11, 2016

Is an algorithm boss liberating or exploitive for employees ? - Financial Times

In the gig economy, companies such as Uber and Deliveroo manage workers via their phones. But is this liberating or exploitative? 
The small London side street reverberates with the growl of motorbikes and the shriek of horns. A young man yells hoarsely into a megaphone: “They’re gonna be disrupted, yeah! Because your lives are being disrupted, yeah! This is the money you need to live!” Dozens of men in T-shirts and jeans cheer and pump the horns on their motorbikes, scooters and bicycles. Many have pieces of A4 paper taped to their backs that say: “We are people, not Uber’s tools!”
This protest outside the UberEats office in south London on August 26 is one of the first industrial disputes to hit the city’s so-called gig economy. It is a strange clash. These are workers without a workplace, striking against a company that does not employ them. They are managed not by people but by an algorithm that communicates with them via their smartphones. And what they are rebelling against is an app update.
They’re gonna be disrupted, yeah! Because your lives are being disrupted, yeah! This is the money you need to live!
- Chant at UberEats protest
UberEats launched in London in June, promising “the food you want, from the London restaurants you love, delivered at Uber speed”. In a bid to recruit self-employed couriers to ferry food from restaurants to customers, UberEats initially offered to pay £20 an hour. But as customer demand increased, the company began to reduce pay. By August, the couriers were on a piece rate with a fiddly formula: £3.30 a delivery plus £1 a mile, minus a 25 per cent “Uber service fee”, plus a £5 “trip reward”. Then, one day, the couriers woke up to find the app had been updated again. The “trip reward” had been cut to £4 for weekday lunch and weekend dinner times, and to £3 for weekday dinner and weekend lunch times. Outside those periods, it had been cut altogether.
“They tricked us,” roars a man called Manou over the din, hunching over the handlebars of his motorbike. Like many experienced couriers, he left his job with a different delivery company because Uber was offering better pay. Not any more. “They make us feel like they can just use us and destroy us and create new tools,” he says. Imran Siddiqui, one of the leaders of the protest, says he feels bad because he had encouraged other couriers to sign up for UberEats before they changed the pay. “If they don’t resolve this strike it’s going to spread like a fire.”
It’s hard to spread the word when you don’t even know who your colleagues are. But the couriers have an idea. They open their apps as customers and order food to be delivered to them. As UberEats couriers arrive with pizzas at the place their app has sent them, the strikers tell them about the protest and urge them to join in. Algorithmic management, meet algorithmic rebellion.
scale of the gig economy but in the US there are about 800,000 people earning money this way — via online intermediaries such as TaskRabbit, Lyft, Uber and Deliveroo — without being anyone’s employee. The term “algorithmic management” was coined last year by academics at the Carnegie Mellon University Human-Computer Interaction Institute, and it is this innovation, they argue, that makes the gig economy possible. For companies like Uber, which aspires to “make transportation as reliable as running water”, algorithmic management solves a problem: how to instruct, track and evaluate a crowd of casual workers you do not employ, so they deliver a responsive, seamless, standardised service.
Those deploying algorithmic management say it creates new employment opportunities, better and cheaper consumer services, transparency and fairness in parts of the labour market that are characterised by inefficiency, opacity and capricious human bosses. But a summer of wildcat strikes in London’s gig economy shows that some workers are beginning to chafe against the contradictions of being “their own boss” yet tightly managed by the smartphones in their pockets. They might be free to choose when to work but not how to work or, crucially, how much they are paid.
Bad how? Deliveroo’s algorithm monitors couriers closely and sends them personalised monthly “service level assessments” on their average “time to accept orders”, “travel time to restaurant”, “travel time to customer”, “time at customer”, “late orders” and “unassigned orders”. The algorithm compares each courier’s performance to its own estimate of how fast they should have been. An example from one of Kyaw’s assessments: “Your average time to customer was less than our estimate, which means you are meeting this service-level criterion. Your average difference was -3.1 minutes.” Deliveroo confirmed it performs the assessments but said its “time-related requirements” took into account reasonable delays and riders were “never against the clock for an order”.
Drivers for Uber’s ride-hailing app, of which there are about a million around the world, are subject to similar algorithmic control. They choose when to work but once they log on to the app, they only have 10-20 seconds to respond to “trip requests” routed to them by the algorithm. They are not told the customer’s final destination until they have picked them up. If drivers miss three trip requests in a row, they are logged out automatically for two minutes. Uber sends drivers a weekly report including their confirmation rate and average customer rating (out of 5).

Podcast



Using algorithms to monitor performance is associated with companies like Uber and the gig economy, but also harks back to the ‘scientific management’ of Frederick Winslow Taylor a century ago. John Gapper discusses the return of this trend with Sarah O’Connor.
Documents submitted as part of an employment tribunal case brought by the GMB union against Uber in London include an email sent to driver James Farrar in May congratulating him on an average rating above 4.4. “We will continue to monitor your rating every 50 trips and will email you if we see your rating for your past 50 trips falls below 4.6.” Uber will “deactivate” drivers whose ratings drop too low, though it says this is “extremely rare”. The court case documents include one instance, in which Uber sent an email on December 23 2013 to a driver called Ashley Da Gama: “Hi there, we would like to wish you a Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year. We are currently planning for 2014 and would like you to be part of it. However, we do need to see an improvement on your current track record to ensure you are.” Two weeks later, Uber emailed again to say his ratings had not improved enough. His account had been “deactivated . . . as of today”.
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Algorithmic management” might sound like the future but it has uncanny echoes from the past. A hundred years ago, a new theory called “scientific management” swept through the factories of America. It was the brainchild of Frederick W Taylor, the son of a well-to-do Philadelphia family who dropped his preparations for Harvard to become an apprentice in a hydraulics factory. He saw a haphazard workplace where men worked as slowly as they could get away with while their bosses paid them as little as possible. Taylor wanted to replace this “rule of thumb” approach with “the establishment of many rules, laws and formulae which replace the judgment of the individual workman”. To that end, he sent managers with stopwatches and notebooks on to the shop floor. They observed, timed and recorded every stage of every job, and determined the most efficient way that each one should be done. “Perhaps the most prominent single element in modern scientific management is the task idea,” Taylor wrote in his 1911 book The Principles of Scientific Management. “This task specifies not only what is to be done but how it is to be done and the exact time allowed for doing it.”
They are treating you like an employee so how can they say it’s self-employment?
- Bhone Kyaw, Deliveroo courier
Bhone Kyaw has been standing around on the street for half an hour when his phone chirrups. It is a balmy Monday evening in London’s wealthy St John’s Wood and orders are finally flowing. Kyaw is one of 20,000 self-employed couriers who work for Deliveroo, a food-delivery company founded in London in 2013 by former investment banker Will Shu. Already in 84 cities across 12 countries, it has just raised $275m from investors to bring its total to almost half a billion dollars, making it one of Europe’s best-funded start-ups.
Kyaw, a boyish-looking 30-year-old, has been working for Deliveroo for about nine months. He works 40-50 hours a week over six days and makes £400-£450 before tax, motorbike insurance and maintenance. In most parts of London, Deliveroo schedules shifts, which couriers agree a week in advance. They must work at least two of Friday, Saturday and Sunday evenings (though Deliveroo says shifts can be moved around when necessary). They are paid £7 an hour plus £1 a delivery, tips and petrol.
Kyaw whips out his phone. The app expects him to respond to new orders within 30 seconds. The screen shows a map and address for the local Carluccio’s, an Italian restaurant chain. A swipe bar says “Accept delivery”. That is the only option. The algorithm will not tell him the delivery address until he has picked up the food from Carluccio’s. Deliveroo couriers are assigned fairly small geographic areas but Kyaw says sometimes the delivery address is way outside his allocated zone. You can only decline an order by phoning the driver support line. “They say, ‘No, you have to do it, you already collected the food.’ If you want to return the food to the restaurant they mark it as a driver refusal — that’s bad.”
so labourers who worked in the yard of the Bethlehem Steel Company. After a series of experiments, he decided that a “first class” shoveller would be most productive if he lifted 21 pounds of weight with every shovel load. He ordered different-sized shovels for each type of material in the yard: a small shovel to hold 21 pounds of ore; a large one to hold 21 pounds of ash. The men went to a pigeonhole each morning where a piece of paper would tell them which tools to select and where to start work. Another piece of paper would tell them how well they had performed the previous day.
“Many of these men were foreigners and unable to read and write but they all knew at a glance the essence of his report, because yellow paper showed the man that he had failed to do his full task the day before, and informed him that he had not earned as much as $1.85 a day, and that none but high-priced men would be allowed to stay permanently with this gang,” Taylor explained.
Taylor advocated his new theory with evangelical zeal. Charles Harrah, one-time owner of the Midvale Steel Company, where Taylor pioneered many of his ideas, once told him: “Do you know what I am going to do when I have made a few more millions? I am going to build the finest insane asylum this world has ever known, and you, Taylor, are going to have there an entire floor.”
Algorithms are providing a degree of control and oversight that even the most hardened Taylorists could never have dreamt of
- Jeremias Prassl, law professor, Oxford university
Nonetheless, scientific management took off, improving productivity in the vast factories of early 20th-century America. It was the logical precursor to Henry Ford’s production lines. And its legacy can be seen in factories, call centres and warehouses today, although new technology has taken the place of Taylor’s instruction cards and stopwatches. Many warehouse workers for companies such as Amazon use handheld devices that give them step-by-step instructions on where to walk and what to pick from the shelves when they get there, all the while measuring their “pick rate” in real time. For Jeremias Prassl, a law professor at Oxford university, the algorithmic management techniques of Uber and Deliveroo are Taylorism 2.0. “Algorithms are providing a degree of control and oversight that even the most hardened Taylorists could never have dreamt of,” he says.
The next frontier for algorithmic management is the traditional service sector, tackling retailers and restaurants. “Taylor’s ideas have been applied very widely in manufacturing . . . but the services industry has always been a black box,” says Serguei Netessine, professor of global technology at Insead business school. “It has been very difficult to figure out: is it employees who are performing well? Or is the employee getting lucky? Now with data we can do this.” So Frederick Taylor is heading to the high street? “Yes — Taylor on steroids.”
Percolata is one of the Silicon Valley companies trying to make this happen. The technology business, which Netessine advises, has about 40 retail chains as clients, including Uniqlo and 7-Eleven. It installs sensors in shops that measure the volume and type of customers flowing in and out, combines that with data on the amount of sales per employee, and calculates what it describes as the “true productivity” of a shop worker: a measure it calls “shopper yield”, or sales divided by traffic.
of employees ranked from lowest to highest by shopper yield. Its algorithm builds profiles on each employee — when do they perform well? When do they perform badly? It learns whether some people do better when paired with certain colleagues, and worse when paired with others. It uses weather, online traffic and other signals to forecast customer footfall in advance. Then it creates a schedule with the optimal mix of workers to maximise sales for every 15-minute slot of the day. Managers press a button and the schedule publishes to employees’ personal smartphones. People with the highest shopper yields are usually given more hours. Some store managers print out the leaderboard and post it in the break room. “It creates this competitive spirit — if I want more hours, I need to step it up a bit,” explains Greg Tanaka, Percolata’s 42-year-old founder.
The company runs “twin study” tests where it takes two very similar stores and only implements the system in one of them. The data so far suggest the algorithm can boost sales by 10-30 per cent, Tanaka says. “What’s ironic is we’re not automating the sales associates’ jobs per se, but we’re automating the manager’s job, and [our algorithm] can actually do it better than them.”
We’re automating the manager’s job and our algorithm can actually do it better than them
- Greg Tanaka, founder of Percolata
Better for the employer? Or better for the workers? Both, argue Tanaka and Netessine. Unlike human store managers, algorithms do not use hours to reward the people they like, or the people they are related to, or the people who look like them. Tanaka is forever fighting battles against the “incredible biases” of managers who want to tweak his algorithm’s carefully calibrated schedules. “The manager comes in and says, ‘Look, my favourite person is not working when I’m working, so I want to muck with the schedule’ and it’s like, ‘Oh my god, just by doing that you lost a few percentage points in sales!’”
Tanaka says his algorithm is also a more reliable boss because it is better at forecasting demand: employees tell the app when they are available to work, then receive their schedules in advance. They are not subject to the chaotic scheduling common in many retail jobs, where employees are sometimes sent home early because the shop is unexpectedly quiet, or told to wait by the phone. Kayley Hignell, head of policy at the UK’s Citizens’ Advice Bureau, a charity, says technology that gave employees more visibility on their rotas and pay would be welcome. Many people have no idea how shambolic some jobs are at the bottom of the labour market, she says: rotas pinned on noticeboards that you have to check on your day off; incomplete payslips that haven’t recorded the right hours. “It’s good to see movement in the direction of utilising tech to help out with those challenges,” she says. But she warns against taking it too far. “Having a good line manager makes people feel more secure . . . you can’t tell a computer that your childcare arrangements are up in the air at the moment.”
Not everyone buys the idea that algorithms will treat people fairly. “You can’t take that seriously,” says Guy Standing, a professor of development studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, who writes about precarious work. “The same rule applied to everybody might turn out to be more inequitable than subtle human judgment.”
While Percolata can predict demand and schedule workers up to a month in advance, Tanaka believes that retail jobs will eventually become so flexible in response to fluctuating demand that they become part of the gig economy. Wouldn’t it be better to just pay people more for the time they are actually productive, he asks? “That’s what Uber does; they don’t pay people for sitting in the car when there’s no one in the car.”
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Deliveroo has just decided to try the same approach. This summer it started to trial a new system in a few London zones, where couriers are not scheduled in advance but can log in to work whenever they want. The quid pro quo is that they will only be paid a piece rate of £3.75 a delivery. They gain flexibility but shoulder the financial risk — borne previously by the company — that they will wait around unpaid when demand is slow.
That is fine for people such as Anja Bosio, a 21-year-old student, who rides for Deliveroo because she loves to cycle, and usually only at busy times. She used to work as a waitress but she prefers to be out on her own, where the only demands come from the algorithm on her phone. “With waitressing I was always looking over my shoulder; this is a lot less stressful.”
But the new piece-rate system has panicked couriers such as Bhone Kyaw, for whom Deliveroo is a full-time job. He and his partner have a five- and a four-year-old; she works for Deliveroo too but only on weekends when her mother can look after the kids. “There is no way we can survive on £3.75,” he says. He joined a wildcat strike of Deliveroo drivers in August that — with the help of the Independent Workers’ Union of Great Britain — won some concessions from management: guaranteed deliveries per hour during peak times for the period of the trial, and a promise that those who did not want to take part could move to a different zone.
But Kyaw fears that Deliveroo will impose the new system as planned after the trial ends in mid-September. Earlier that morning, he had worked for three hours and received five jobs. Under the old system he would be paid £26; under the new one, £18.75. “They will say, ‘Why are you guys waiting at a time when it’s not busy? But people want to make money because they have a family, and even at the busy time we can’t guarantee how many deliveries we’ll make.”
A few months ago, he was knocked off his motorbike and had to pay for the repairs because his third-party insurance did not cover the incident. He hurt his knees and elbows and couldn’t work for a week. “We need at least a safety net for our earnings to do the bike maintenance, to pay for the insurance, to pay for our rent, our bills.”
Is the problem that couriers like Kyaw are trying to use Deliveroo as a full-time job when it is simply not designed for that purpose? No, he insists. Deliveroo treated him like an employee when it suited them. Like when he came down with flu this March and emailed to say he wouldn’t be able to do his shifts. Deliveroo sent him this email: “Due to your unavailability without any communication I have decided to terminate your services agreement with Deliveroo . . . We will not return your deposit and process your final fees until you have worked your notice period, returned your equipment and shown that you have removed all Deliveroo stickers from your delivery box.”
When Kyaw sent screenshots to prove he had told them he was sick, they reinstated him. Still, he says, “They are treating you like an employee, so how can they say it’s self-employment?” He feels as if Deliveroo has all the power of an employer but none of the responsibility.
Some gig-economy workers and unions are bringing this question to court. They argue that these companies’ algorithms exert so much control over workers that they are really employees in the eyes of the law and thus owed hourly minimum wages, sick pay, holiday pay and the like. This is the kernel of the argument the law firm Leigh Day made on behalf of the GMB union against Uber, which was heard in a London employment tribunal earlier this summer. James Farrar, an Uber driver who was one of the claimants in that case, submitted a long witness statement detailing all the ways in which he said the algorithm controlled him. He was subject to 10-minute log-offs for cancelling too many rides (a process Uber says it has now updated), which presented him with a choice between “a 10-minute sin-bin when I cannot work or earn, and carrying out a trip which is uneconomical or risky for me”. If he worked for himself and Uber’s only function was to connect him with passengers, he argued, he would be able to do “just the journeys I want to do and that I judge are safe”. Uber’s defence was simple: drivers can’t be deemed employees because they have no obligation at all to log on to the app.
The tribunal’s ruling is expected in October. Martin Warren, a partner and head of labour relations at the Eversheds law firm, says the gig economy poses a profound challenge to the way the law defines jobs. Many gig workers simply do not fit neatly under an employee or a self-employed label. “Is it going to lead to a redefinition of the employment/self-employment divide with a broader test for employment? That is the question to pose.”
Policymakers, meanwhile, are flummoxed. Robert Rubin, former US Treasury secretary, summed up their dilemma at a recent Hamilton Project think-tank discussion on the gig economy. “The question is how to protect workers while at the same time garnering and reaping the benefits of change and innovation.”
Gig-economy companies provide undoubtedly popular services to consumers, and many workers clearly value the flexibility to work when they want. Make us treat workers as traditional employees, the companies say, and all that will go away.
An Uber representative told the FT that both “private hire drivers and couriers partnering with Uber do so with complete flexibility and are able to choose when and where they log in. Uber does not set shifts or allocate zones for its couriers or partner-drivers to operate in. Over 30,000 people have partnered with Uber in London so they can be their own bosses and make money on their own terms.” He said UberEats had offered pay incentives in the early days while it built demand for the service, and was now reducing them because couriers were making more deliveries, so were earning more at peak times.
A Deliveroo official said: “All of our riders work with us flexibly, often around other commitments, such as studying, family or additional work commitments.” Some 85 per cent of couriers have told Deliveroo they use it for “a supplementary income, or short-term flexible work”. She also said that previous trials of the piece-rate system found that couriers’ earnings were up to 2.1 times higher at the busiest times, with “our most efficient riders” making £15-£18 an hour. She added that safety was Deliveroo’s “top priority”.
Yet for critics such as Guy Standing, one man’s flexibility is another man’s insecurity. The gig economy is fuelling a “precariat” class of workers denied the protections of traditional jobs, he says. Algorithms provide “fantastic opportunities for rapacious exploitation” of people who are already at the bottom of the labour market. “They can monitor and make sure they only pay for the time they really want to pay for, and yet have people available at all times, waiting on call.”
We were having these same arguments 100 years ago. Taylor’s “scientific management” triggered a swift backlash from unions and workers, resulting in a special congressional investigation in 1911. Trade unionists, factory workers and Taylor himself were summoned to Congress to testify about this strange new system.
Algorithms provide ‘fantastic opportunities for rapacious exploitation’ of people who are already at the bottom of the labour market
- Guy Standing, professor of development studies, SOAS
James O’Connell, the president of the International Association of Machinists, used his appearance to condemn the “lead-pencil faddists” who were deskilling work and dehumanising workers. Edward Vreeland, a Republican congressman, asked him whether piecework was not the fairest way to pay. “No,” he snapped. “Under no circumstances. The boss sets the price, the speeder sets the pace, the strong, stout, energetic young man sets the standard of life for his older brothers. That is piecework. The organisation of men has been driven out in every way, and the men are helpless.”
He declared to the assembled congressmen: “The labouring men of this country will not permit the Taylor system to be introduced in the factories in this country.”
Taylor could not have predicted the rise and fall of America’s trade unions over the rest of that century. But, like many of today’s gig-economy companies, he was quietly confident that his ideas would win out in the end. Like Uber and Deliveroo, he had faith in the power of his system to provide consumers with cheaper and better stuff, and believed that would ultimately overwhelm all objections. “At first glance we see only two parties to the transaction, the workmen and their employers,” he wrote in his book. “We overlook the third great party, the whole people — the consumers who buy the product of the first two.”
“In the end,” he predicted, “the people . . . will force the new order of things on both employer and employee.”
Sarah O’Connor is the FT’s employment correspondent
Photographs: Fred MacGregor; Mark Kerrison / Alamy Stock Photo; Press Association; Everett Collection Historical / Alamy; Carlos Chavarría

US consumers watch dog tell users to stop using Samsung Galaxy 7 - CNN

Safety Commission and Samsung are urging owners of the Galaxy Note 7 smartphones to stop using the devices while they work to formalize how a recall will work.

The warning comes a week after Samsung (SSNLF) announced a voluntary recall of 2.5 million phones worldwide because of a battery problem believed to affect 0.1% of all devices. Some customers reported that their Note 7s caught fire. 
A government recall would outlaw the selling of the phone. In its statement, the agency asked owners of the Note 7 "to power them down and stop charging or using the device" in the meantime. 
Details on an official recall will come "as soon as possible," the agency said. 
Tim Baxter, president of Samsung Electronics America, said the company is collaborating with CPSC and its carrier partners to ensure all Note 7 users are alerted. 
Samsung, based in South Korea, has been offering U.S. customers a different phone, the Galaxy S7 or Galaxy S7 Edge, and a $25 gift card or bill credit.
Following the U.S. announcement, Samsung on Saturday advised Note 7 owners in South Korea to stop using the devices. It urged them to visit their nearest Samsung service center where they will receive a different phone.
It wasn't immediately clear whether the advice is being extended to the other eight countries where Samsung is recalling the Note 7.
The Federal Aviation Administration on Thursday warned airline passengers to not use or charge their Note 7s on board an aircraft and not to stow the phones in checked baggage. 


-- K.J. Kwon and Jethro Mullen contributed to this report.

Saturday, September 10, 2016

Facebook co-founder spends US$20M to defeat Trump in election - CNN

(CNN)A co-founder of Facebook is donating $20 million of his fortune to Democratic coffers in a late and likely consequential move to help defeat Republican candidate Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. 
The funds are a surprising infusion of cash from an individual who has never before been active in politics.
Dustin Moskovitz, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur with a net worth of more than $10 billion, announced early Friday that he and his wife would make a historically large donation to a half-dozen Democratic groups, including those backing Hillary Clinton. The donations, once issued, will make Moskovitz the third most generous donor in the 2016 campaign. 
"This decision was not easy, particularly because we have reservations about anyone using large amounts of money to influence elections," Moskovitz and his wife, Cari Tuna, wrote in a post on Medium. "We hope these efforts make it a little more likely that Secretary Clinton is able to pursue the agenda she's outlined, and serve as a signal to the Republican Party that by running this kind of campaign — one built on fear and hostility — and supporting this kind of candidate, they compel people to act in response."
Moskovitz said $5 million would go to a super PAC run by the League of Conservation Voters, an environmentalist group running advertising and canvassing campaigns; and another $5 million to For Our Future PAC, an effort by organized labor and environmentalists to run a consolidated, high-powered field program.
Other donations will be split between a joint fundraising committee for Hillary Clinton; the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee; the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee; a political arm of MoveOn.Org; Color of Change PAC; and "several nonpartisan voter registration and GOTV efforts."
Though Democratic groups are not hurting for cash, the September gifts could potentially open new avenues for Democratic groups looking to recapture control of Congress or defeat Trump. And the sheer size of the gift will make the 32-year-old one of the most sought-after and unlikeliest donors in the 2016 campaign.
Moskovitz, a college roommate of Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg, has not been particularly active in politics. He has only cut two checks before to candidates — both to New York congressional candidate Sean Eldridge, the husband of another Facebook co-founder — that amounted to $5,200.
"Cari and I have dedicated our lives to figuring out how to do the most good we can with the resources we've been given. Until now, those efforts have not included making endorsements or contributions in presidential elections," Moskovitz wrote. "The Republican Party, and Donald Trump in particular, is running on a zero-sum vision, stressing a false contest between their constituency and the rest of the world."
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The $20 million will give new life to several Democratic groups, though Moskovitz's list notably omits Priorities USA, the principal super PAC supporting Clinton's campaign.
Moskovitz told CNN that he was not ruling out a donation to Priorities USA and that his giving could eclipse the initial $20 million pledge. "No further donations have been decided. We will say more if that changes."
Moskovitz will only be out punched as a donor by Tom Steyer, the California billionaire and Democratic activist who has given more than $30 million to his groups in the 2016 cycle; and Bob Mercer, a major Trump supporter who has given just a drop more than Moskovitz's $20 million to Republican groups in this election. 
Steyer has also made a major donation to For Our Future PAC, which is aiming to raise $50 million to back the Democratic ticket. The largest donor so far to the League of Conservation Voters is a British investor, who gave a total of $2.5 million this summer.

Friday, September 9, 2016

Trump likens supporters to ISIS recruits - New York Magazine



Donald Trump answers questions about policy like a tenth-grade stoner amped up on Red Bull answers questions about last night’s reading — masking his ignorance in layers of confident blabber, before becoming too bored with his own bullshit to maintain any semblance of coherence.
This may not inspire much confidence in the GOP nominee’s qualifications for the Oval Office. But it does produce some of the most delightfully Dada sentences that mankind has ever heard. And on Tuesday, while discussing the importance of cybersecurity in the fight against ISIS, Trump took his gibberish-generating game to the next level.
“Now the cyber is so big,” it’s “becoming something … that wasn’t a word.” No writer in America is doing more exciting things with syntax than the Republican standard-bearer. And the “substance” of this passage is no less remarkable than its style.
Trump begins by informing us that the word cyber did not derive from the theory of cybernetics, popularized in the mid-20th century, but rather from the events of the last few years. He proceeds to conflate cybersecurity — protecting America’s digital infrastructure from hackers or physical attack — with combating ISIS’s digital recruitment efforts. And then he posits that the terror group has more success attracting new members when they spread the perception that they are winning — a “psychology” that he likens to that of his own supporters, who have been energized by a recent poll that shows him leading nationally.
This is a top-shelf performance from one of the all-time great masters of sputtering nonsense. And his abridged history of the Iran-Iraq War, which he also debuted on Tuesday, is nearly as good.



Trump begins by informing us that the word cyber did not derive from the theory of cybernetics, popularized in the mid-20th century, but rather from the events of the last few years. He proceeds to conflate cybersecurity — protecting America’s digital infrastructure from hackers or physical attack — with combating ISIS’s digital recruitment efforts. And then he posits that the terror group has more success attracting new members when they spread the perception that they are winning — a “psychology” that he likens to that of his own supporters, who have been energized by a recent poll that shows him leading nationally.


This is a top-shelf performance from one of the all-time great masters of sputtering nonsense. And his abridged history of the Iran-Iraq War, which he also debuted on Tuesday, is nearly as good.

Thursday, September 8, 2016

China may shun IPhone 7 and wait for IPhone 8 - Fortune

Convincing shoppers to replace their smartphone is a tougher sell than it used to be.

Judging by the volume of online chatter, there’s a lot less buzz inChina ahead of this week’s expected launch of the new Apple  AAPL 0.61%  iPhone, and people on the street say they’re more likely to “wait and see” what the latest device offers than rush out to buy.
Posts on China‘s popular Sina Weibo microblogging site show the iPhone 6, which took China by storm in 2014 with its new, larger screen, attracted around 15 times more comments in the month before launch than this year’s model.
The muted online anticipation for the iPhone 7 underlines the challenge Apple faces to revive growth in China, where an economic slowdown has slammed the brakes on what was once touted as the firm’s next big growth engine.
Apple’s Greater China sales dropped by a third in April-June, albeit after more than doubling a year earlier, and revenue was down by more than a quarter to $8.8 billion – around a fifth of its total sales. Its 7.8% market share ranked fifth in China, trailing local vendors Huawei Technologies,  HUAWEI 0.00%  OPPO, and Vivo, which together accounted for 47%, according to IDC data.
The California-based company’s online stores for iBooks and movies was also closed in China after Beijing imposed strict curbs in March on online publishing, and Apple has been on the losing side of intellectual property battles here.
Beijing student Wang Yue, 23, said she was in no hurry to buy an iPhone 7. “I’m looking forward to the launch, but I won’t rush to buy anything,” Wang, who uses an iPhone 6S that was launched last year, told Reuters. “I want to know what new functions it’s got. My feeling is there are no real major changes from the 6S, so I think I’ll hold off for a while.”
Apple is widely anticipated to unveil the new iPhone 7 at an event in San Francisco on Wednesday. The company, which doesn’t give a regional breakdown for its iPhone sales, didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Among half a dozen consumers Reuters spoke to most said they would first check out the new phone’s functions or wait for the price to drop. Only one planned to definitely buy any new model.
“The word among consumers is the updates are not going to be revolutionary, but smaller changes,” said Ben Cavender, Shanghai-based director at China Market Research Group, who described current consumer interest in China as “muted”.
WAIT FOR EIGHT
More than anything else, the upcoming iPhone 7 may be a victim of the success of the iPhone 6.
China sales of the iPhone 6 soared in the first quarter of last year, helping drive up Apple’s China revenues by 71%. A year later, weaker sales of the 6S contributed to the company’s first global decline in iPhone sales and first revenue drop in 13 years – though globally the 6S was the top-selling smartphone in April-June, according to Strategy Analytics.
The research firm estimates iPhone shipments in China will decline 20% in the second half of this year to 21 million from a year ago.
“Apple is struggling with consumer ‘iPhone fatigue’ in China, while competition from Huawei, Oppo and others remains fierce,” said Strategy Analytics analyst Neil Mawston.
Weibo chatter in the run-up to the iPhone 7 launch has, however, topped levels seen ahead of last year’s 6S launch.
Some Chinese shoppers are even already eyeing a potential iPhone 8 model that could be launched with more significant changes next year, the 10th anniversary of the first iPhone.
“Because it’s just one year, lots of people are choosing to wait for the iPhone 8,” said Wang Bo, a finance worker in his thirties at a securities firm in Shanghai. “The changes with the 8 will be much bigger, which I think will be a drag on sales of the new phone this year.”
Wang, who uses both an iPhone 6S and a Huawei P9, said he plans to buy this year’s new iPhone when it’s released in China.
But convincing other shoppers in China – and the United States – to replace their smartphone is a tougher sell today than in 2014, when many Chinese were buying an iPhone for the first time.
Concerns that Apple has hit “peak iPhone” have buffeted the firm’s shares this year, with the stock price up just 2.35%, lagging the benchmark S&P 500 Index.
“The biggest thing that’s changed since 2014 is that the iPhone is widely available,” said Ben Thompson, who analyses the technology sector at Stratechery. “There’s a lot more growth potential when people have their first chance to buy an iPhone, but that potential has now been realized.”

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Gold price jumps highest since Brexit - Bloomberg

since June and traded near its highest in almost three weeks as the dollar weakened amid diminishing chances of a U.S. interest-rate rise in September.
Bullion for immediate delivery was at $1,349.43 an ounce at 3:16 p.m. in Singapore, after surging 1.7 percent on Tuesday, the most since the results of the Brexit vote on June 24, according to Bloomberg generic pricing.
The metal has resumed its rally this year on reduced chances of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy this month after the Institute for Supply Management’s index of U.S. non-manufacturing industries slumped to its lowest level since February 2010. A gauge of the greenback traded at the lowest level this month. The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Sept. 20-21.
“The U.S. dollar remains the key factor driving the gold price,” said David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney. “The latest sets of data out of the U.S. would tend to suggest no change in the Fed’s stance is likely, and hence the U.S. dollar may weaken a little and gold firm up pre-FOMC.”
Odds of the Fed raising rates this month slid to 24 percent as of Tuesday from 34 percent at the start of September, according to Fed funds futures tracked by Bloomberg. Lackluster manufacturing data and evidence of a slowdown in hiring have also fueled concerns over U.S. growth.
Still, Fed Bank of San Francisco President John Williams painted an upbeat picture of the U.S. economy in a speech on Tuesday, despite the recent disappointing data, saying it made sense to get back to a pace of gradual rate increases.
  • Holdings in bullion-backed exchange traded funds added 13.8 metric tons to 2,031 tons on Tuesday, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
  • In China, bullion of 99.99 percent purity rose 1.2 percent to 289.60 yuan a gram ($1,351.46 an ounce) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
  • On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for December delivery gained 1.4 percent to 290.85 yuan a gram, while silver surged 1.6 percent to 4,416 yuan a kilogram.
  • Spot silver fell 0.6 percent, platinum was little changed and palladium climbed 0.2 percent.