Sunday, February 12, 2017

Flynn did discuss sanctions with Russia before taking office - NBC News

National Security Advisor Mike Flynn discussed hacking-related sanctions with the Russian ambassador before the Trump administration took office, contrary to the public assertions of Vice President Mike Pence and White House spokesman Sean Spicer, a U.S. intelligence official told NBC News.

The official said he was told there was no quid pro quo and that there has been no finding inside the government that Flynn did anything illegal.

But he said he was surprised when Flynn initially denied to the Washington Post, which first reported this story, that he discussed the sanctions on Russia with the ambassador. His spokesman later said he didn't recall whether he did, according to the Post.

On Friday, a spokesperson for Flynn told NBC News that Flynn "can't be 100 percent sure," but doesn't remember talking sanctions.

The FBI and intelligence officials became aware of the contents of the conversations because they were monitoring the communications of Russian diplomats, current and former officials have said.

Democrats are furious over the disclosure, a senior congressional staffer said, and critics, such as foreign policy scholar David Rothkopf, are accusing Flynn of having "lied." The White House did not immediately respond to NBC News's request for comment.

Flynn's contacts with Sergey Kislyak, Russia's ambassador to the U.S., were initially seen by critics as a potential violation of a 1799 law called the Logan Act, which prohibits a private citizen from negotiating with a foreign power in a dispute with the United States. But that law has rarely if ever been cited in a prosecution.

Flynn gave the Russian envoy any indication that the Trump administration would lift sanctions that were imposed to punish Russia for hacking and leaking emails during the U.S. presidential election, which intelligence officials say was meant to hurt Hillary Clinton and tip the election to Donald Trump.

The Russians did not respond as expected to the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats from the U.S. as part of the sanctions. President Putin said he would not retaliate with expulsions of U.S. diplomats, and instead invited the children of diplomatic personnel in Russia to a Christmas and New Year's party.

As a candidate and as president-elect, President Trump repeatedly expressed doubt about whether Russia had interfered in the election, despite a unanimous "high confidence" assessment of the intelligence community. He later acknowledged Russian's role, but he has continued to praise Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Flynn spoke to Kislyak on Dec. 29, the same day the sanctions were announced, the White House has said, adding that the two also communicated by text message. White House spokesman Sean Spicer said the conversations were about routine matters such as scheduling a phone call between Trump and Putin. Spicer said the topics did not include the sanctions.

Vice President Mike Pence, appearing on the CBS program "Face the Nation," said Flynn and the Russian ambassador "did not discuss anything having to do with the United States's decision to expel diplomats or impose censure against Russia."



An administration official told NBC News that Vice President Pence's only source for saying Flynn did not discuss sanctions with the ambassador was Flynn himself.

The Post, which based its new reporting on nine sources, said Flynn twice denied on Wednesday that he discussed sanctions with Kislyak, but then changed his answer on Thursday.

A spokesman for the Russian Embassy in Washington, D.C., told NBC News that the embassy "does not comment on our conversations with local contacts — any local contacts — which are being conducted every day. We respect them."

Flynn, a retired Army general who ran the Defense Intelligence Agency until he was forced out early during the Obama administration, has been under fire for his paid relationship with the television network RT, which is funded by the Russian government.

He said he was paid to appear at a 2015 RT dinner in Moscow, but he hasn't said how much. He likened RT — which U.S. intelligence agencies say is a Russian propaganda outlet — to CNN and MSNBC.

Last week a group of House Democrats sent a letter to Defense Secretary James Mattis calling for a Pentagon investigation into the matter, given Flynn's status as a retired general.

On Friday, Rep. Adam Schiff, ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee said the possibility that Flynn discussed sanctions with Kislyak "raises serious questions of legality and fitness for office. If he did so, and then he and other administration officials misled the American people, his conduct would be all the more pernicious."

A few Democrats issued statements calling for Trump to fire Flynn.

"It's clear that concerns about General Flynn's ties to Russia were well warranted," said Rep. Eliot Engel of New York, ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. "The President must relieve General Flynn immediately."

Others called for further investigation.

"That General Flynn may have misled the vice president of the United States and others raises the most serious questions about his ability to continue serving as national security advisor," said Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts, a Senate Foreign Relations Committee member. "I hope federal law enforcement professionals investigate this matter immediately. Any effort to undermine our nation's foreign policy - even during a transition period — may be illegal and must be taken seriously."

Saturday, February 11, 2017

Did Kellyanne Conway’s Ivanka Trump Fashion Line Plug Violate Ethics Rules? - NBC News



NEWS
 

Did Kellyanne Conway’s Ivanka Trump Fashion Line Plug Violate Ethics Rules?

The Trump administration faced continued criticism over possible ethics violations Thursday after a White House official promoted Ivanka Trump's clothing line in a television interview. 
"Go buy Ivanka's stuff," Kellyanne Conway, counselor to President Trump, told Fox & Friends co-host Steve Doocy. 
Ivanka Trump has a "wonderful line," Conway added. "I own some of it. I fully, I'm gonna just going to give a free commercial here. Go buy it today everybody. You can find it online." 
Conway was immediately accused of breaking federal ethics rules. 
House Oversight and Government Reform Chairman Jason Chaffetz sharply criticized Conway for her remarks. 
"That was wrong, wrong, wrong. It is wholly unacceptable — no if, ands or buts about it," the chairman told NBC News by phone. 
Chaffetz, R-Utah, and the committee's ranking Democrat, Elijah Cummings of Maryland, are "jointly going to send a letter to the White House and Office of Government Ethics for a referral. Earlier in the day, Cummings asked the congressional panel to review Conway's actions.
they better learn this lesson very quick," Chaffetz said. 
Chaffetz said he is not sure what the remedy is or whether his committee will have a hearing looking into the matter, but this letter and referral is a first step. 
Two watchdogs groups, Public Citizen and Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, have also asked the Office of Government Ethics to investigate. 
Both cited regulations that say: "An employee shall not use his public office for his own private gain, for the endorsement of any product, service or enterprise, or for the private gain of friends, relatives, or persons with whom the employee is affiliated in a nongovernmental capacity."
Robert Weissman, president of Public Citizen, said that Conway's statement could not be misinterpreted as anything but a violation. 
"Since she said it was an advertisement, that both eliminates any question about whether outsiders are unfairly reading into what's being said, and two, it makes clear that wasn't an inadvertent remark," Weissman said. 
Weissman said Conway's remark was "yet more evidence" that Trump's earlier assertion that he'd separate his family's business interests from White House activities "was untrue." 
CREW said in a letter to the Office of Government Ethics that it was "concerned about what appears to be a pattern developing of the use of official offices, particularly the White House and the Executive Office of the President, to benefit business interests of relatives and supporters of the president." 
Conway was responding to the outcry over Trump's criticism of Nordstrom for dropping his daughter's line. In a tweet on Wednesday, the president accused the retailer of treating his daughter "unfairly." 
told NBC News that the brand had been selling well and that the move was in response to pressure from advocacy groups. Nordstrom has denied that. 
Nordstrom stock ticked up a bit on Wednesday and Thursday. 
Norm Eisen, former special counsel on ethics for Obama, told MSNBC that Trump's tweet was an abuse of power. 
"He's putting the bully in the bully pulpit to attack this company on dubious factual assertions in order to promote his daughter," Eisen said. 
Eisen pointed out that it remains unclear if the president has any financial stake in his daughter's business, and that there are a number of questions about his links to other parts of his family's empire. 
"Literally everything he does has this miasma of conflict around it," Eisen said. 
Eisen also said Trump's tweet gave Nordstrom grounds to sue. 
"This is unfair business practices," he said. "There's a serious legal question. There are statutes across the country, including a very tough one in California." 
But lawyer Maxwell Blecher, who specializes in unfair competition and antitrust cases, said Nordstrom did not have basis to sue under the California law. 
"It's an expression of opinion," Blecher said. "It is not defamatory and it is not an unfair business act."
morning plug on Fox. 
Eisen returned to MSNBC to echo Lu's accusation of an ethical breach. 
"It is not allowed for a government employee to use your public office for private gain," he said. "And by doing this ad, I have never seen anything like it. It's a violation of the rule. Pure and simple." 
NBC News
Asked about Conway's comments during Thursday's White House press briefing, Sean Spicer said she "has been counseled on that subject, and that's all." 

Friday, February 10, 2017

The lesson from the Nordstrom incident - do business with the Trumps or else - New York Times

The lesson from the Nordstrom incident - do business with the Trumps or else

It is a clear violation of the ethics rules for White House staff members, or any other federal employees, to use their official positions for private gain. But what President Trump did on Wednesday in his Twitter attack on the Nordstrom department store chain, castigating it for dropping Ms. Trump’s line, was far worse.


In sum, Nordstrom made a business decision not to do business with the president’s daughter because
her
clothing line was not selling well
, and the president used his official position to attack the company for this decision.
The president’s tweet — posted on his personal account and then re-sent from his White House account — is an act of intimidation. Nordstrom interacts with many executive branch agencies: the Department of Labor, the Federal Trade Commission, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Internal Revenue Service and others. Each one of these agencies will be headed by Trump appointees. Most will be staffed with other political appointees as well. The president is telling all of these people that he is very angry with Nordstrom. The message is clear, and it won’t take much for a political appointee in some agency to conceive of an ingenious way of ingratiating himself with the White House by making life difficult for the store chain.

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Most important, regardless of whether such retaliation actually happens, Nordstrom and the handful of other companies that announced they, too, would drop the line have to live in fear of it for the rest of the Trump administration. And now every other department store knows that it had better not make a similar “business decision” that displeases the president. In other words, do business with the Trump family and help the Trump family promote its products, or else.

This is not the way free markets work, particularly in the United States. We fought a revolution in part against the mercantilism that prevailed in Britain, where the king and members of Parliament played favorites and people who wanted to ingratiate themselves with the government did business with companies in which powerful politicians had an interest (the South Sea Company and the East India Company were the two most notorious examples). Edmund Burke and Adam Smith railed against this type of corrupt relationship between business and government in Britain; similarly, the founders of our country did not want that type of abuse of power going on here.

The modern-day Tea Party movement arose in the aftermath of the Great Recession, a reaction to the perception that politicians were playing favorites in bailing out Wall Street banks and auto companies. The Republican Party for years has made a very strong case for an economy in which market actors make their own decisions free of government interference.

And now all of that — and indeed the bedrock principles of limited government power that go back to Thomas Jefferson — lies in shambles as a president seeks not only to use his official position to promote the business of the Trump family but also to retaliate against other businesses for the decisions they make in the marketplace.

Americans have worried about losing freedoms in the Trump administration, including freedom of religion and of the press, as well as the right to be heard by an independent judiciary. We learned this week that free markets are at risk as well.

Richard W. Painter (@RWPUSA), a professor at the University of Minnesota Law School, was the chief White House ethics lawyer from 2005 to 2007.

New York Times

Thursday, February 9, 2017

Connecting Trump's dots of unconnected campaign promises - Financial Times

Connecting Trump’s Dots - unconnected campaign promises based on incoherent world view
Every day, the president’s behavior becomes more worrying. One day he demeans a federal judge who challenges him; the next day, without evidence, he accuses the media of hiding illegal voting or acts of terrorism. His lack of respect for institutions and truth pours out so fast, you start to forget how crazy this behavior is for any adult, let alone a president, and just how ugly things will get when we have a real crisis. And crises are baked into this story because of the incoherence of President Trump’s worldview.

How so? The world today is more interdependent than ever. The globalization of markets, the spread of cellphones, the accelerations in technology and biology, the new mass movements of migrants and the disruptions in the climate are all intertwined and impacting one another. As a result, we need a president who can connect all of these dots and navigate a path that gets the most out of them and cushions the worst.

But Trump is a dot exploiter, not connector. He made a series of reckless, unconnected promises, not much longer than tweets, to get elected, and now he’s just checking off each one, without thinking through the linkages among them or anticipating second-order effects.

It is a great way to make America weak — and overstretched — again.

Where do I start? Trump wants to get tougher with China on trade and security. That’s not crazy. But how would I do that? I’d organize an alliance of Pacific trading nations that surround China and enlist them in a trade pact that supports U.S.-style rule of law, greater market access for U.S. intellectual property and products and promotes U.S. values — as opposed to China’s. I’d call it the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP for short.

Oh wait, President Barack Obama did that, but Trump scrapped TPP on Day 1, without, I am sure, having read it. Now there is every reason to believe our Asian-Pacific allies will fall even more under China’s economic sway and trade “rules.” How smart is that?

And by the way, why is labor in Mexico cheaper than in America? One reason is that Mexico has weaker labor rights and environmental standards. Let’s see … what would TPP require of Mexico and other signatories? That they bring their labor rights and environmental standards closer to ours.

Instead, Trump is building a wall to keep out Mexican immigrants and force companies to move to the U.S. Let’s see … what happened after 9/11, when the border crossings with Mexico and Canada were severely constricted for security? It forced some assembly line shutdowns at U.S. auto companies, like Ford, because their supply chains stretched to Mexico and Canada. The lower-cost work is done in Mexico and then integrated with higher-value-added work in America, which enables our car companies to compete on price in Europe, Japan and China.



So what did the U.S., Canada and Mexico do after 9/11? They created a North American security envelope, explained Seth Stodder, Obama’s assistant secretary of homeland security, so if you fly into Mexico or Toronto from the Middle East, our Homeland Security Department now probably knows about it.

“Since 9/11, we and our Mexican and Canadian partners have worked to secure the North American perimeter by sharing information on people and goods coming to our countries, cross-referencing that information against terrorism databases and working collaboratively to identify potential bad actors trying to come to North America,” Stodder said. If we build a wall and demand that Mexico pay for it, how long will it go on cooperating with us?

And if Trump forces all these U.S.-based multinationals to move operations from Mexico back to the U.S., what will that do? Help tank the Mexican economy so more Mexicans will try to come north, and raise the costs for U.S. manufacturers. What will they do? Move their factories to the U.S. but replace as many humans as possible with robots to contain costs.

The U.N. says there’s a record 65 million displaced migrants and refugees, mostly from the developing world, trying to get into secure places like the U.S. or Europe. Why? A mix of civil wars, state failures, climate stresses and population explosions. What did Trump do his first week? Appoint climate deniers to key posts and ban U.S. aid to health groups that provide abortion as a family-planning option in developing nations.

Trump wants to partner with Vladimir Putin to defeat ISIS in Syria — a worthy goal. But Putin hasn’t been trying to defeat ISIS. He’s been trying to defeat democracy in Syria to keep the genocidal pro-Russian dictator there in power.

Will that be our goal, too? And who are Putin’s allies in Syria? Iran, Hezbollah and Shiite mercenaries from Pakistan and Afghanistan. Will they be our allies, too? No. We will enlist Iraqi and Syrian Sunnis to help us, says Trump. Really? But he just barred them from entering the U.S. How cooperative will they be?

And whom else might this ban keep out? Remember Steve Jobs? His biological father was Abdulfattah “John” Jandali. He came to America as a student in the 1950s and studied at the University of Wisconsin. He was from … Homs, Syria.

It’s amazing what a mess you can make when you only check boxes and don’t link them.

New York Times

Tim Cook Just Bought Himself More Time to Prove Apple Doubters Wrong - TIME Business

Posted: 01 Feb 2017 06:39 AM PST

Steve Jobs is a tough act to follow. How tough? Six years after Tim Cook took control of operations at Apple from Jobs, he’s still trying to escape the long shadow of his predecessor.
Cook has led Apple since January 2011, when Jobs went on medical leave to battle pancreatic cancer. The following August, Cook formally assumed the title of CEO. Under his leadership, Apple’s market cap has risen 144%, besting the 104% gain in the Nasdaq Composite Index. During the previous six years – the last six of Jobs’ tenure – Apple’s stock rose 329%.
Those numbers underscore the dilemma Cook faces. On the one hand, he’s steered Apple into a success that surpasses that of most of its Silicon Valley peers. On the other, he’s not Steve Jobs. And that has left Cook in a position where, no matter how well Apple is doing, it never quite seems to be good enough.
In the last year alone, Apple’s stock has risen more than 25% – again outperforming the Nasdaq by a good margin. And yet in recent weeks, many observers have been questioning Cook’s leadership, prompted in good part by the 10-year anniversary of the iPhone’s now legendary introduction by Jobs.
Some observers feel Apple has been losing its focus. One entrepreneur compared Cook to Steve Ballmer, who while CEO of Microsoft missed opportunities in search and mobile. A Wall Street analyst complained that Apple “lacks the courage to lead the next generation of innovation.” A former Apple employee tweeted, “The very first thing Tim did as CEO was convert Apple from a dynamic change-maker into a boring operations company.” 
Of course, Cook has his defenders. But 2016 presented Apple with its share of challenges. In its fiscal year through September, Apple saw its revenue decline for the first time in 15 years. Upgrades to the iPad, the Apple Watch and the MacBook Pro were steady improvements enough, but lacked the panache of years past. The company was seen as lagging behind Google and Microsoft in artificial intelligence. Bold new products, long promised by Cook, didn’t arrive soon enough to placate Apple skeptics.
All of these developments tugged at a core concern: Apple is losing its innovative edge. It had become The iPhone Company – the device makes up 70% of company revenue – and smartphones are becoming a saturated market. Even if that wasn’t Cook’s fault, it remained a big problem for him. When The New York Times asked Peter Thiel if the age of Apple were over, he said yes. “It’s not the fault of Tim Cook, but it’s not an area where there will be any more innovation.”
On Tuesday, Cook had his chance to disagree with all these naysayers. Apple said it returned to year-over-year growth last quarter for the first time in four quarters. Cook was careful to enumerate all the financial records it set last quarter: iPhone revenue. Watch revenue. Mac revenue. Revenue from the App Store and other services. Overall, revenue rose 3% last quarter, while earnings per share rose to $3.36. (Not everything was a record: Net income fell 3% to $17.9 billion).
One bright spot was services like the App Store and Apple Music. Revenue there grew by 18% last quarter as the number of paid subscribers grew to 150 million and as the average spend per customer also increased. Cook said he expects services revenue to double to around $50 billion in four years.
But the better news concerned Apple’s core iPhone business. Apple sold 78.3 million iPhones last quarter, above the 77 million estimate analysts had been looking for. iPhone revenue was strong in all regions except China, and many sales were coming from both upgrades and people switching from other manufacturers – two important developments as the global market for smartphones grows saturated.
That’s crucial for Cook, because it gives him time to prepare for the next iPhone, Apple’s most anticipated release in years. Not only is the next iPhone arriving on the 10th anniversary of the first model, it’s rumored to have features like an OLED screen, a glass casing, a battery that charges wirelessly, and possibly augmented reality features that Cook has hinted at in recent months.
If the “iPhone 8,” or whatever it ends up being officially named, revives Apple’s sales the way the iPhone 6 did a few years ago, Cook will have more time to deliver on the longer-term products he keeps insisting are in the pipeline. Unlike many previous earnings calls, no analyst asked for an update on that pipeline. The focus right now is squarely on the next iPhone, the next version of the game-changer Jobs unveiled a decade ago. And for Cook, that’s enough. Unlike skeptics like Thiel, he sees plenty of life left in the smartphone.
“I think the smartphone is still in the early innings of the game. I think there’s lots more to do,” Cook said during Apple’s earnings call Tuesday. “We think different about a bunch of things,” he added, invoking an old Apple slogan. “This is just one more thing.”

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

DeVos sworn in as Seccretary of Edocation after marathon grilling where Pence used casting vote - ABC News

Michigan billionaire education activist Betsy DeVos was confirmed today to serve as the secretary of education in President Trump’s administration, after Vice President Mike Pence cast a tiebreaking vote in the Senate.
The Senate voted on DeVos’ highly contentious nomination this afternoon, and the tally was split evenly, requiring Pence to use his authority as president of the upper chamber of Congress to break the impasse. This was the first time that a vice president has broken a tie to confirm a Cabinet nominee.
Pence read the vote count 50-50 and then voted himself, rendering the tally 51-50.
The day before the vote, Democrats staged a 24-hour marathon of speeches, with more than 30 lawmakers taking to the floor to urge at least one additional Republican to vote against DeVos and block her confirmation.
“It is hard to imagine a worse choice,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., said before she read letters from constituents urging her to vote no.
DeVos stirred up vehement opposition from teachers’ unions and all 48 Senate Democrats. Many cited concerns about her support of school vouchers, which critics believe will weaken public schools, and her lack of experience, since she never attended or worked in the public education system. Others cited her lack of familiarity with a landmark law protecting the education needs of disabled children.
She was panned for a gaffe during her confirmation hearing, when she hedged on an answer about guns in schools by saying they might be needed in states like Wyoming to defend against “potential grizzlies.”
DeVos' nomination drew above-average negative reactions from the public, with voters flooding Senate phone lines and email accounts in recent weeks. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., said his office received 14,000 calls about DeVos.
In addition to the entire Democratic caucus, two moderate Republicans, Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowskiof Alaska announced they would not support DeVos.
During a speech announcing her opposition, Collins said DeVos’ focus on charters and vouchers “raises the question of whether or not she fully appreciates that the secretary of education’s primary focus must be on helping states and communities, parents, teachers, school board members and administrators strengthen our public schools.”
Before the confirmation vote, the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee voted along party lines, 12-11, to refer DeVos’ nomination to the full Senate.
ABC News’ Morgan Winsor contributed to this report.

Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Trump orders a dress code in the White House - Financial Times

Donald Trump is trying to implement some sartorial rigour within his administration. According to intelligence from the White House, the president believes his staff should “have a certain look” and aspire to “be sharply dressed”. Men should wear a tie. Female colleagues have been told to “dress like a woman”, whatever that means. Perhaps he wants them to swing through the White House on tree vines, wearing jungle pelts in the manner of Edgar Rice Burroughs’ Jane?
As with so many of his executive orders so far, it’s predictably disappointing. And possibly misguided. One of the few joys to find in this new world order is in observing just how uniformly shambolic and ill-matched it is. I assumed the administration’s chaotic deportment was in fact a marvellously choreographed campaign to deflect “the opposition party” from the fine details of the day.
What better way to disguise your flailing incompetence at a press briefing, for example, than by wearing a tie of such exceptional ugliness that no one will really hear what you’re trying to say? Sean Spicer knows how to make headlines. The White House press secretary’s clumsy attempts to explain the botched military operations that led to the death of civilians and a Navy seal following a raid on Yemen last week were overlooked as focus fell instead on the diagonally striped monstrosity in poison yellow and navy tied around his neck.

I just assumed the tie was sartorial spin. Call it Project Blind: dull the people to the ineptitude of your policymaking and practice by wearing an eye-wateringly unattractive wardrobe. Donald Trump’s ill-fitting suit, Fanta complexion and feathery comb-over are already well documented: but he looks almost suave compared to the unshaven Steve Bannon, with his livid red proboscis, stained T-shirts and straining shirt buttons. So slovenly is he, and so swollen with choler, he seems to ooze with an especially Chaucerian brand of humour. Watching him slumped in his flannel shirts in the Oval Office, I am reminded of The Nun’s Priest Tale: “For God’s love, as tak som laxatyf.”
Then there’s Mike Pence, who wears smarter white button-down shirts, electric-coloured ties and navy suits, with all the self-possession of a Weeble. Or secretary of defence James Mattis, cadaverous in camo. Attorney-general Jeff Sessions wears pocket-sized suits and ties in reflux yellow and spotted vermilion: he carries them both with the skittery, overly keen mien of a warm-up host.
For comic opportunities alone, I hope Trump has directed his female staffers to follow the lead of Kellyanne Conway in their efforts to look “like a woman”. The counsellor to the president is the undisputed star of this fashion circus: a feisty, former cheerleader who, to judge by the state of her inauguration ensemble, takes her style inspiration from the Peruvian refugee Paddington Bear.
; a muddle of lurid jackets and look-at-me ensembles in primary brights — citrine, vermilion, blood — that are every bit as jarring as her coarse rhetoric. She embraces the type of womanly power glamour observed by weather girls and newscasters: her sleeveless dresses testify to a woman’s right to bare arms or, in the case of the ruffled gold jacket she wore to canvass at Trump Tower last November, the right to resemble a gilded valance sheet. But time has been cruel to Conway. Where once she might have been described as perky, the first weeks in office have lent her sleep-starved, kohl-rimmed looks the ravaged expression of a raptor. I can’t wait to see what she’ll wear next.
Whatever about “dressing sharp”. It must take a concerted effort, a willingness even, to look so collectively dreadful. It’s also in keeping with the evolution (or should that be devolution?) of world-leader style. After years of slick homogeny on the political stage — slim, dark-suited, smug — we’re now seeing a return of the fashion maverick: think Yanis Varoufakis and his football manager leathers, or Nigel Farage in his Toad-of-Toad-Hall Crombie and tulip-pink ties.
Similarly, British prime minister Theresa May’s affection for a voluminous tartan suit by Vivienne Westwood has been much discussed in recent weeks. As with the fabled leopard-print shoes in which she strode to power, May has worn the suits in moments of political — and personal — vulnerability, to announce her determination to lead the Conservative party, for example, or lay down a challenging Brexit strategy. Like Spicer’s tie, the tartan suit has proven a nifty decoy: capable of sucking up headlines and loud enough to distract from the political business of the day.
It may look daft, but the wacky wardrobe is a formidable weapon: bad clothes stimulate alternative conversations, they’re diverting and normalising. Conway’s flowerpot hats are awful, Bannon’s flak jacket is filthy and Spicer’s ties are plain obnoxious, but they all throw light on the individual that wears them. They give the wearer personality. Even more significantly, the clothes are humanising: one could almost feel sorry for Spicer; while Bannon’s gorilla-like bearing has become as morbidly fascinating as his guerrilla-style of governance. It’s all quite stupefying to behold — which, presumably, is the point.
So rather than insist his aides smarten up, if I were Trump I’d order everyone to keep on clowning around: brighter ties, Hawaiian print shirts, lots of gold lamé. Dressing like a fool never seemed so wise.

If your opinion is against Trump it is fake - Huffington Post


Natalie Jackson
Senior Polling Editor, The Huffington Post
Bright and early Monday morning, President Donald Trump took to Twitter to express his frustration with polling numbers on his policies. He specifically compared “any negative polling” to the CNN, ABC and NBC election polls and labeled them all “fake news.”


This tactic seems to be Trump’s modus operandi for dealing with anything that casts him in a negative light ― publicly call it “fake” and claim he knows better. He’s trying to manipulate the public into not believing the polling numbers that we know he’s rabidly consuming.

Unfortunately for Trump, that’s not how polling works. Polls, when done right, represent the views of millions of Americans ― with some room for error, of course, since they’re based on samples of a few hundred or a thousand people. The specific polls Trump called out are very high quality and were actually very close to the national election outcome.

The ABC News poll, conducted in partnership with the Washington Post, showed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton up by 4 points in their final national poll, 47 percent to 43 percent. Clinton won the national popular vote, by a little more than 2 percentage points, 48 percent to 45.9 percent. The poll underestimated Clinton’s vote by 1 point and Trump’s vote by 2.9 points. That’s a pretty good performance, well within the poll’s margin of error.

The last NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll also had Clinton winning by 4 points. That poll showed higher third party and undecided vote proportions and had Clinton with only 44 percent and Trump at 40 percent. But the 4-point margin was within a reasonable range of the result.  CNN’s final election poll was conducted nearly 2 weeks prior to the election on Oct. 20-23, and had Clinton up by 5 points, a bit farther from the actual result, but not outrageous for 2 weeks prior to the election.
Trump’s problem with these polls isn’t that they weren’t true representations of Americans’ opinions. It’s that they didn’t show him winning the popular vote ― which he didn’t win, another fact he has sought to discredit by claiming 3-5 million people illegally voted. Now he’s doing the same thing with polling about his policies.

Technically he’s correct that “people want border security and extreme vetting.” Some people do. Trump’s immigration policies are popular with a segment of Americans, but how many support the policy depends on how pollsters ask about the policy. Only one poll shows a majority of Americans approving of Trump’s travel ban policy, but in several polls a majority disapproves.


However, Trump isn’t just trying to claim majority support. He clearly seeks to discredit all negative opinions with comments like “any negative polls are fake news.” This is unusual and alarming behavior from a president.

Plenty of presidents probably haven’t liked their polling numbers before. President Barack Obama probably wasn’t thrilled that his health care law has been mostly viewed unfavorably since 2010. President George W. Bush couldn’t have been satisfied with his job approval ratings, which steadily declined throughout his second term.

But neither Obama nor Bush tried to discredit American opinion. Trump seems to think he can ignore anything that isn’t favorable to him, and that we should just believe his decisions are best for the country based on his own “accumulation of data.”


We shouldn’t believe that from Trump or from anyone else. As I wrote last week, if the data aren’t cited and you can’t see the source, that’s the first indication that you shouldn’t believe it’s real. The same standard applies to the president.

Trump is smart: He’s attacking institutions that have public trust issues, and he gets a double whammy by hitting media polling. But even if you dislike polls, the claim that “any negative” information is fake is a dangerous one. If he uses it for polls, he’s likely to use it for other facts as well. That’s a very authoritarian tactic.

Don’t let Trump get away with labeling anything he doesn’t like “fake.” Keep making your voice heard in polls and in every way possible.



MORE: Donald Trump Political Opinion Polls
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Monday, February 6, 2017

Illegal immigrants from Mexico falling since 2009 - Pew Research

President Donald Trump appears to think building a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border will solve unauthorized immigration and other issues at the border. Stats from the last few years tell a completely different story. 
Trump signed two executive orders Wednesday that call for the immediate construction of a wall and issue directives to crack down on unauthorized immigration, increase security at the southern border and expand agencies’ deportation powers.
The order describes building the wall as a measure “to prevent illegal immigration, drug and human trafficking, and acts of terrorism.” Prioritizing a wall ― with an estimated cost in the billions ― has been widely condemned by Latino groups and lawmakers as a discriminatory attack on immigrants.
Building a wall to keep Mexicans out is also out of touch with the current realities of unauthorized immigration. Since the recession, more undocumented Mexican immigrants are actually leaving the country than entering it, according to the Pew Research Center.
And as the Mexican economy has improved, the number of people attempting to illegally cross into the U.S. from Mexico has dropped dramatically over the last 15 years, according to Quartz:
As of 2014, the majority of the 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. are from Mexico, according to Pew’s population estimates, but their numbers have been declining.  
At the same time, unauthorized immigration from other countries has risen, driven by people coming from Central America, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Pew notes that many of the people from those regions are entering the country legally and overstaying their visas ― something a wall won’t prevent.


On Wednesday, Trump claimed the wall would also help Mexico prevent unauthorized immigration from countries to its south. He addressed the “unprecedented surge of illegal migrants” from Central America, many of whom are families seeking asylum from violence in their countries. 
Central Americans outnumbered Mexican immigrants apprehended at the United States’ southern border in 2016. The total number of apprehensions increased last yearcompared to 2015, but was still lower than in 2014 or 2013. The apprehension figures give a sense of trends in the larger number of total illegal border crossings, according to U.S. Border Control.
Building a wall is impractical for other reasons. It won’t address actual enforcement needs, officials in Texas borderlands told HuffPost’s Roque Planas. U.S. Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas) said a physical barrier isn’t an effective security measure for the area’s rough terrain and protected natural areas. Gilberto Hinojosa, chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, said the Rio Grande Valley area is heavily patrolled by authorities and that they’ve already “reached [their] maximum capacity in enforcement.”
What’s more, it’s not clear how the wall will be funded. Republican leaders said Thursday that Congress would front $12 billion or more for its construction, without clarifying if they’d offset the costs with other cuts. Trump has insisted Mexico will pay for the wall, but Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto has repeatedly refused: He reiterated his stance on Wednesday.
Nieto was scheduled to meet with Trump at the White House next week, but said on Thursday that he was canceling. Nieto’s decision followed Wednesday reports that he was considering whether to keep the meeting. Trump lashed out on Twitter earlier Thursday, threatening to cancel as well, but Nieto pulled the trigger first.
During his presidential campaign, Trump frequently targeted immigrants and blamed them for American job losses, criminal activity and terrorism. He claimed Mexico was purposely sending “the bad ones” to the U.S., suggesting Mexican immigrants are criminals and rapists.

Sunday, February 5, 2017

Trump has made China great again - New York Times

Trump has made China great again

America’s rivals and enemies have enjoyed a very good 10 days.

One clear beneficiary has been ISIS, which has spent years trying to persuade Muslims that the United States is at war with Islam. ISIS wants to eliminate the world’s “gray zone,”the places where Muslims, Christians, Hindus and Jews live in harmony.

No wonder that ISIS-affiliated social media gleefully posted President Trump’s executive order this weekend, as Rukmini Callimachi of The Times reported. Trump’s call for a Muslim ban, like his unsubtle attempt to implement one, plays right into ISIS’ desire to eliminate the gray zone. The president of the United States himself now seems to agree that Muslims and non-Muslims can’t live together.

Besides the immorality and apparent illegality of Trump’s order, it’s worth weighing the strategic effects as well. Yes, it is conceivable that barring visitors from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen would keep out a future terrorist. But it’s highly unlikely.

They are already intensely vetted, and previous attackers have generally come from other countries. “The end result of this ban will not be a drop in terror attacks,” as dozens of American diplomats wrote, in a dissenting draft memo that leaked. Instead, “it will be a drop in international good will towards Americans and” — because of the chilling effect on travel — “a threat towards our economy.”

New York Times

Saturday, February 4, 2017

The presidency is not for an amoral man - Economist

CAN a bad man be a good president? The potential urgency of this question took Lexington on a cross-country pilgrimage to the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in Yorba Linda, California. The museum, which reopened in October after an expensive overhaul, attempts to weigh the flaws of the 37th president against his undoubted merits, starting with his intelligence, daunting capacity for work and a poker-player’s willingness to take calculated risks in geopolitics.
Much thought has gone into burnishing the reputation of the only president to resign the office. A new display for the selfie generation allows visitors to photograph themselves on the Great Wall of China next to a life-size Nixon cut-out, recalling his history-making visit in 1972. Little-known moments of physical courage are remembered. Carefully preserved bullets and glass fragments testify to a nearly fatal mob attack on his car while visiting Venezuela in 1958 as Dwight Eisenhower’s vice-president—the display explains how Nixon prevented a bloodbath by ordering his Secret Service agent to hold fire.
The museum hails Nixon for rallying a “silent majority” of Americans who felt ignored and disdained by bossy, self-dealing elites. Captions suggest that Nixon balanced a conservative’s wariness of big government with a pragmatist’s willingness to wield federal authority to heal chronic ills, whether that involved desegregating schools in the South to an extent that had eluded his Democratic predecessors or creating the Environmental Protection Agency to clean up rivers so polluted that they caught fire. This empathy for America’s forgotten, damaged places was all the more remarkable because—as the museum admits via filmed interviews with aides and family members—Nixon was a brooding introvert, “suspicious” to the point of paranoia.
The Watergate scandal that felled Nixon is presented in a side-gallery filled with sombre black, red and grey panels bearing labels like “Dirty Tricks and Political Espionage” and “Obstruction of Justice”. In the brightly lit main halls an elegant display explains how Nixon recorded White House conversations with hidden microphones, to preserve his presidency for posterity. An old-fashioned telephone plays such recordings as “Daddy, Do You Want to Go Out to Dinner?” a 1973 call from Nixon’s daughter, Julie. Walk a few yards into the Watergate gallery and the taped recordings are of the president growling about Jews in his government, snarling, “Generally speaking, you can’t trust the bastards.” Blazered volunteers earnestly describe Nixon’s strong and weak points. They work hard, with one guide spending long minutes explaining Maoist China to two youngsters perched on the canary-yellow sofas in a replica of his Oval Office from around 1969.
Alas for keepers of the Nixon flame, the museum—whose historical displays have become more candid over the years, notably when the complex became part of the official presidential library system in 2007—is too honest for its own good. The museum would like visitors to judge Nixon the man, which is why it includes a sculpture of a favourite dog curled up in an armchair and tours of the modest cottage where he was born, back when Yorba Linda was a rural backwater. But it ends up telling a story larger than any one individual. It reveals how close America’s ship of state came to being wrecked by a particularly lethal sort of bad leader: one guided by a broken moral compass.
The museum quotes one eyewitness to Watergate saying of Nixon’s resignation: “The system worked.” It nearly didn’t, though. A pilgrimage to Yorba Linda offers several troubling lessons. First, Nixon employed in his cabinet and White House many clever men with brilliant CVs. They did little to rein in the thugs and glinty-eyed loyalists infesting his inner circle, though some grandees did resign out of principle—notably the attorney-general and deputy attorney-general, who both quit rather than obey Nixon’s orders to fire a special prosecutor closing in on him (in the end the solicitor-general did the deed). Second, and perhaps unintentionally, the museum suggests that if the Supreme Court had not forced Nixon to release White House tapes of his ordering illegal acts, many partisans might have continued to look the other way. A striking interview, filmed in 2008, shows Bob Dole, a young senator back in 1973 who later became a party leader and presidential candidate, conceding that he tried to convince himself that sinister aides were behind every misdeed. “I didn’t want to make myself believe Nixon did this, that he actually participated,” he explains in a telling tangle of words.
A piece of cake, until you get to the top
Next, the museum records Nixon fulminating against perceived tormentors in the press. But photographs also show him acknowledging its reach by speaking in a newly opened West Wing briefing room—a facility whose future is currently in doubt. Today, amid confected rows about “fake news”, reporters who unearthed a new Watergate would start with roughly half the country ready to disbelieve them. Finally, the Nixon museum shows how the symbolic power of the presidency can cow dissent, even in this sceptical age. Tours end with a peek into a lovingly restored Sea King helicopter used by four presidents. A reverential guide points out a chic white racing stripe along the dark green fuselage, painted at Jacqueline Kennedy’s suggestion. He adds, lightly, that the aircraft is the one that carried Nixon into enforced retirement, and museum-goers look no less impressed.
Indoors, a diorama recreates that departure from the South Lawn of the White House, portraying the former presidential couple in their helicopter seats and quoting Pat Nixon’s lament to her husband: “It’s so sad, it’s so sad.” The staging lends the scene dignity and pathos. But the moment was not sad, it was a merited disgrace. No political leader is an angel. Good men have been bad presidents (cf, Jimmy Carter). But the presidency is the wrong job for an amoral man.

Mexican wall is only one option to stop illegal immigrants - NBC News

NEWS FEB 2 2017, 6:34 AM ET
Trump’s Wall Is Only One Potential Option for Border

BUDAPEST, Hungary — From Donald Trump's promise to make Mexico pay for a wall to Kenya's planned 435-mile security barrier along its boundary with Somalia, borders are big business.
"There were more borders and barriers being built in the last 10 years than ever before," says Thomas Tass, the chairman of Borderpol — an organization of border security agents and officials.
The border security market was worth $15.6 billion in 2015, according to estimates from marketing firm Strategic Defense Intelligence (SDI). It is expected to grow to $23.7 billion by 2025.
Image: The border fence near the village of Asotthalom, Hungary

The border fence on the Hungary-Serbia on Oct. 2, 2016. Reuters
Researchers from the University of Quebec say there are now at least 65 physical barriers along national borders around the world.
And while Trump's vow suggests there will be no sign of construction slowing, governments around the world are doing more than just putting up walls.
The big question for those watching the borders is how to keep criminals and terrorists out, without infringing on the rights and safety of legitimate travelers.
To accomplish this balancing act, border agencies — and the security companies that supply them — are deploying smarter technology as well.
"Border management programs are basically the biggest business for the security industry now," says Frank Doherty, the European operations director for border technology firm MSA.
The company offers "intelligent fences" that can detect intruders as well as ground sensors and expensive high-range security cameras that can see up to 15 miles away.
MSA has mainly focused on the Middle East, and is now seeing opportunities to increase its business in Europe. But Doherty says Europeans don't want highly visible, fortified barriers that are popular in countries such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia or Oman.
"In Europe they're more covert," he told NBC News. "They want to know the intruder is there but they don't necessarily want to show everybody that they're stopping them coming in."
The largest share of the market is expected to be maritime surveillance with which SID project manager Mainak Kar said is driven in part by demand for unarmed drones, helicopters and patrol vessels to monitor the number of migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea.
"Instead of active aggressive measures like armed patrol boats, electrical fences, a lot of equipment will be surveillance based just to know when and how people are coming in," Kar said.
Security agencies are also deploying a decidedly low-tech, but perhaps the most user-friendly method available: sniffer dogs.
"The dogs are still renowned as the best method of detecting a scene," says Colin Singer, managing director of Wagtail UK. His dogs are trained to sniff out a variety of scents ranging from drugs or tobacco to human beings.
"They're very accurate, so the use of the dogs is a favorite method by border agencies because of their accuracy and speed," he added.
Related: Here's What the U.S.-Mexico Border Looks Like Now
While public opinion may be aligning against globalization and the free movement of people, information sharing among security agencies remains a powerful tool in the fight against crime and terror.
Attila Freska, chief operating officer of Securiport, a company that provides security information management services to governments, says by better utilizing all the available data, security forces have something akin to "a crystal ball."
"Most people have a data footprint," he told NBC News. "But even if there is no data footprint, that's a flag. People buying expensive tickets for a flight with cash — that's a flag these days."
Interpol also makes freely available its extensive databases which include the red notices flagging arrest warrants for international suspects.
The organization also has a database of stolen and lost travel documents that lists some 70 million passports, according to Royce Walters, assistant director for terrorism and border security at Interpol.
He says it takes a fraction of second for a border agent to get information from the database, just by scanning a passport.
"Pretty much before you can finish swiping it, it's already hit the database and come back with information as to if there's a problem," he says.
Walters says another available database has millions of sets of fingerprints, "everything from small-time petty thieves, all the way up to terrorists that were identified during the war in Afghanistan and Iraq."
Despite such advances, sometimes a physical barrier is deemed necessary.
Hungary put up hundreds of miles of fencing along its borders with Serbia and Croatia in 2015 to stop waves of migrants who were crossing over to gain access to other European Union countries.
Hungarian Interior Ministry Deputy Secretary Matyas Hegyaljai told NBC News that the country, which typically received about 20,000 illegal migrant crossings each year, saw 400,000 crossings in 2015.
When border patrols and police were not enough to contain the influx, the country took action.
"We have an obligation to defend not only Hungary, but the European Union," Hegyaljai said.
Image: Migrants enter Hungary at border with Serbia in 2015

Migrants enter Hungary at the border with Serbia on Aug. 27, 2015. BERNADETT SZABO / Reuters
Hegyaljai suggested the fence could come down if the situation improves. "This is not a wall, forever, like on some other border lines," he added.
Tass, with Borderpol, says the challenges faced by Hungary provided a "litmus test of what the border management community will encounter in the months and years ahead."
ISIS has also changed the equation, and put pressure on the so-called Schengen system — which allows travelers free passage to other EU countries without passport checks.
The Islamist group has urged its fighters to use migrant routes to enter Europe. That includes two suicide bombers who had trained in Syria before taking part in the attacks Paris in November 2015.
"The real challenge for the entire civilized global community is the foreign fighters," says Peter Vincent, an assistant director for international policy at Borderpol.
But Vincent, who is a former official in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and Department of Justice, says it is "unfortunate" to see European countries building fences and worries that strict controls put in place to stop terrorists will instead impact on lawful travelers.
"The trick for all of us is to have the proper safeguards in place to detect and capture that very small minority of committed terrorists, while the same time providing asylum and refugee status … to those that are truly fleeing terrorism, not committing acts of terrorism," he added.
According to Securiport's Freska, different legal structures between countries and privacy concerns mean there is no perfect solution to border security.
"You look at water and how it flows," he said. "You may build a dam in one area, it will flow around as we see over and over again."
NBC News