Tuesday, February 3, 2009

The Financial Tsunami ( FT ) - The Way Forward ( 7 ) - Don't put your wrong foot forward.

Somethings you do not ever want them to come true. In the majorities of cases, the worst scenario will materialize out of all our fears. This is known as Murphy's Law in science. I was talking about the P word or Protectionism in The Way Forward ( 5 ) and the dark clouds have already gathered on the horizon of international trade fast. Apart from the currency manipulation accusation against China the US Government FT rescue package due to be put to the US Congress will specify that all government aided enterprises must buy from local US suppliers for the purposes of their trade. This is an undisguised act of protection. Already the EU has threatened to bring the US Government to the WTO for arbitration on the issue. A serious international trade dispute is in the making. Should a full blown international trade conflict occur the anticipated world economic recovery period could be stretched to a decade or even longer. This is unthinkable !

The US conditional FT rescue package will certainly win the hearts of US voters but is it really a good strategy in the long run ? It is an unqualified NO ! If every country falls back upon the P word to protect employment in their our country at the expense of free trade and economic efficiency the world economy will become a shrinking loaf of bread as a result of multilateral trade retaliations. This is the worst possible scenario that could come to pass. You see, being a world leader will come at a cost, sometimes a painful one. It means exactly what the term LEADER implies. There are obligations attached to the honour of being the world's leading nation. She must take the lead to do the right thing with the related sacrifices not just rhetoric. It can hardly be disputed that the origin of the FT can be traced back to the dubious behaviour of the black sheep on Wall Street. It is high time and a good chance to show the world that USA means what she has committed herself to do in Obama's inaugural speech :- " USA is a friend to everyone in the world." Taking a step towards the P word can hardly be seen as world friendly. So, think twice before you leap. Your tarnished image is already in dire need of a good polishing. Please do not start the FT rescue mission by putting your wrong foot forward. To push ahead in this wrong direction will be tantamount to creating another disaster on top of the already devastating FT. It will be the same as throwing petrol into an open furnace. Common sense must prevail !

JKHC.

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