With a hung parliament arising from the August 21 Federal election the two main parties now have 73 seats for the Liberal / National Party coalition and 72 seats for the caretaker Labour government respectively. Just on the numbers the coalition seems to have the upper hand but I think otherwise.
The key for the successful formation of a new Australian government seems to rest in the 4 independents and 1 Green Party MP in the House of Representatives as well as the 9 Green senators in the Senate. Prior to the election Green and Labour had signed an agreement to allocate the Green votes under the party preference system over to Labour in constituency where the Green had become the second best party in terms of votes. This was done because Green and Labour have a more similar political philosophy compared to the coalition's more conservative or right wing thinking. This being the case Labour has achieved a marginal majority in terms of popular votes over the coalition. Although there has been reports that the coalition has now edged over Labour in this respect by a few thousand popular votes. The final position with regard to the distribution of the popular votes will be known when all counting is completed by September 3.
Despite this seeming catching up by the coalition which could be interpreted as having a marginally better people's mandate the practical result would still depend on the stance of the 4 independent MP and 1 Green who could safely be counted as a Labour supporter as with the preferential vote arrangement between the two parties as mentioned above.
Furthermore 3 out of 4 of the independents are break away members of the National Party ( a member party of the coalition ) which mainly represents rural interests. Each independent MP has his own axe to grind with the National Party. Therefore, the likelihood of a successful co-operation agreement between these independents and the coalition is very much in doubt.
In the Senate, the Green Party now has 9 senators. This commands a delicate balance of power in the upper house. Thus, if Labour can forged an alliance with 3 out of the 4 independents plus 1 Green MP the caretaker Labour government will achieve the required 76 seats in the lower house. Based on the above line of thinking a new Labour minority government in coalition with 1 Green and 3 other independents ( if these are agreeable ) could possibly be formed.
Constitutionally, two things can happen with a hung parliament. First, a minority government could be formed in coalition with the 4 independents or 1 Green MP with 3 of the 4 independent MPs. Second, the caretaker Labour could recommend to the Governor General to hold another general election in the immediate future if the Liberal / National Party coalition also fails to reach a minority government agreement with the 1 Green MP and any 3 of the 4 independent MPs as the Labour Party is trying to do.
The second scenario is unlikely due to the huge cost of another immediate election. Also, there is the paramount concern over voter fatigue.
Should the first scenario materialize the newly formed government could possibly be unstable. If any new legislation which has been initially passed in the Senate is rejected by the House of Representatives twice even after modification this will trigger a double dissolution of the legislature. Another general election must be held forthwith to obtain another voters mandate for the incumbent government ( be it a Labour minority or Liberal / National Party minority government ). This will become a make or break situation for the then incumbent government.
My humble prediction is that Labour has a better chance of forming a minority government but it will seek the earliest possible opportunity to call another election when the opinion polls show a substantial improvement in favour of Labour. Of course, the main obstacle to this cunning move could be prevented by the independents joining the new government to obtain an undertaking from Labour that an early election cannot be called without the independents' consent.
Australians just have to keep their fingers crossed to let the horse trading take its course. Whoever run the next Australian Federal government must learn their lesson from this hung parliament and clean up their acts. Good luck to all Australians. May you be blessed with a better government that the lucky country deserves.
JKHC ( 1/9/10 )
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
A short message to the so-called Australian Kingmakers - the newly elected independent MPs
With a hung parliament resulting from Australia's August 21 federal election the 4 confirmed independent MPs become the key to the formation of the next federal parliament. The election results clearly indicate that there is a trend for voters to shun the mainstream political parties. While democracy has delightfully prevailed in Australia we have also created another unhealthy political situation in which the successful formation of the next federal government will be left to the decision of the 4 independent MPs as to which main party they will support. This is supreme power in their hands. As power corrupts without any exception there could possibly be unreasonable demands from these so-called Kingmakers.
Here is my short message to them. The NATION IS WATCHING closely at your actions and decisions. Remember that the outgoing government owes its downfall to getting out of touch with the citizens' needs and aspirations. Wasteful and rash spending decisions resulting from an obsession to become the only advanced economy to stay out of recession after the 2008 financial tsunami at the nation's expense. The evil and sinister move of the party power brokers to dethrone a prime minister who though has become egocentric Kevin 07 was nevertheless given a people's mandate in the 2007 election. The voters should decide their own prime minister in the then upcoming election and to hell with all power brokers who are nothing but shadowy instigators treating themselves as uncrowned kings of the nation.
While it is understandable that the newly elected independent MPs are obligated to get a better deal for their electorate out of the necessary horse-trading in the process of negotiating with the mainstream parties they must not hold the country at ransom for the purpose of achieving personal glory or selfish ends. The wider interests of the country at large must be equally served.
As most of the so-called Kingmakers represent Australian rural interest issues such as broadband coverage, irrigation and health services could be key issues on the negotiation table. Tough bargaining will be on the cards. Nevertheless, the ultimate Kingmakers are the voters so never attempt to disfranchise the small people by serving narrow group, party or personal interests. Voters have put the so-called Kingmakers where they are now and so can they remove them if the so-called Kingmakers are out of line.
Given the fact that independents usually have very specific reasons be they personal or policy issues to stand as independent candidates it is very easy for them to treat this Kingmaker opportunity as payback time. Mind you don't get intoxicated by your momentary crown of control but rather do the right thing and serve the wider interests of the people and you just might become kings of people's hearts.
I attach herewith a link to the press interview of one so-called Kingmakers as he arrived at the Australian capital city of Canberra. Do we have to worry about them being intoxicated by their momentary power and glory ? Make your own judgment :- http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/08/24/2992392.htm
JKHC ( 25/8/10 )
Here is my short message to them. The NATION IS WATCHING closely at your actions and decisions. Remember that the outgoing government owes its downfall to getting out of touch with the citizens' needs and aspirations. Wasteful and rash spending decisions resulting from an obsession to become the only advanced economy to stay out of recession after the 2008 financial tsunami at the nation's expense. The evil and sinister move of the party power brokers to dethrone a prime minister who though has become egocentric Kevin 07 was nevertheless given a people's mandate in the 2007 election. The voters should decide their own prime minister in the then upcoming election and to hell with all power brokers who are nothing but shadowy instigators treating themselves as uncrowned kings of the nation.
While it is understandable that the newly elected independent MPs are obligated to get a better deal for their electorate out of the necessary horse-trading in the process of negotiating with the mainstream parties they must not hold the country at ransom for the purpose of achieving personal glory or selfish ends. The wider interests of the country at large must be equally served.
As most of the so-called Kingmakers represent Australian rural interest issues such as broadband coverage, irrigation and health services could be key issues on the negotiation table. Tough bargaining will be on the cards. Nevertheless, the ultimate Kingmakers are the voters so never attempt to disfranchise the small people by serving narrow group, party or personal interests. Voters have put the so-called Kingmakers where they are now and so can they remove them if the so-called Kingmakers are out of line.
Given the fact that independents usually have very specific reasons be they personal or policy issues to stand as independent candidates it is very easy for them to treat this Kingmaker opportunity as payback time. Mind you don't get intoxicated by your momentary crown of control but rather do the right thing and serve the wider interests of the people and you just might become kings of people's hearts.
I attach herewith a link to the press interview of one so-called Kingmakers as he arrived at the Australian capital city of Canberra. Do we have to worry about them being intoxicated by their momentary power and glory ? Make your own judgment :- http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/08/24/2992392.htm
JKHC ( 25/8/10 )
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Lesson on democracy from the Australian federal elections 2010
I have just voted in the the Australian federal election 2010 which is currently underway. Based on the confirmed voting trend by the Electoral Commission it is most likely that there will be a hung federal parliament.
There are 150 seats in the House of Representatives so that an absolute majority is 76. The way things are going it would appear that the incumbent Labour government and the opposition Coalition ( between the Liberal and National Party ) will get 73 for Labour, 72 for the Coalition , 3 or 4 for independent candidates ( who are break-away members of the National Party mainly representing rural Queensland interest ) plus 1 or 2 for the Green Party ( the environmental protection party with international connection to all Green Parties worldwide ).
With no clear majority for either the incumbent Labour or the opposition Coalition parties either of them can only form a new government if the independent elected members agree to go into another ruling coalition with either major party. This will take a lot of horse trading because the Governor General will only swear in a coalition government after the minor members ( in this case the independents ) of that coalition have first entered into a charter with the main coalition party to ensure that the new government is a stable and workable governing team. So, the 3 or 4 independent elected members of parliament will have a decisive say to make a new ruling coalition a possibility. This could be a long drawn out process.
Political technicality aside, this election has already proven that the incumbent Labour government is suffering from a severe backlash from some failed policies as well as the dramatic and perhaps sinister circumstances surrounding the sudden change of the former Labour Party leader, Kevin Rudd in late June, 2010. Many voters see the last event as the result of Labour Party power brokers calling the shots by ousting the originally popular former Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd through internal party dirty politics. So much so that the press has dubbed Mr. Rudd's sudden resignation from office a political assassination of the former Prime Minister.
Out of this political high drama emerged the first woman Prime Minister of Australia Julia Gillard in late June. At first it was hailed by society as well as staunch supporters of the equality of the sexes as a great victory for Australian society which is still male dominant. This euphoria quickly died down and the press started talking about the present female Prime Minister, Julia Gillard's role in the political assassination. It transpired that when Kevin Rudd's popularity poll nose dived in May and June after a few failed policies ( to be discussed below ) culminating in the proposed introduction of the 65% super tax on Australian mining companies to fill in the incumbent Labour government's huge deficit black hole Julie Gilliard had made a personal undertaking to Kevin Rudd to support him in his imminent party leadership challenge. This highly confidential arrangement was probably exposed by the Rudd camp in retaliation of the so-called back-stabbing by Julia Gillard.
The allegation of political assassination is well supported by some hard circumstantial evidence. Just 3 days before Julia Gillard became the Labour Party leader upon Rudd's sudden departure she was publicly talking to the press that it was more likely for her to be going to Mars than becoming the next Australian Prime Minister implying that she was not going to challenge Rudd's leadership. It was further alleged that on the evening of the day before Mr. Rudd's sudden resignation Gillard had reassured Rudd again that she would not challenge Rudd at the Labour Party central committee meeting the next day. Within 2 hours of that pledge and after receiving several phone calls from Labour Party power brokers advising Gillard that she had enough committee member votes as canvassed by the brokers to replace Rudd , Gillard called Rudd to advise that she had enough votes to replace him. To avoid an open showdown and preserve the image of party unity in the face of a looming election Rudd was forced to resign forthwith.
This scenario has proved that the Labour Party power brokers can remove the incumbent Prime minister at will regardless of the Australian voters' choices that would have been manifested in the forthcoming election. Furthermore, the personal integrity of Gillard was called into question as she had openly expressed to the press that she would not become Prime Minister by challenging Rudd a few days before she got the job on the behest of the power brokers.
Kevin Rudd did have a lot to do with his own downfall. The final straw came with the proposed super tax on mining companies. Prior to this, the spending rot on the failed 10 billion plus roof insulation scheme and solar panels rebate project that had led to 5 under skilled roof insulation workers being electrocuted and numerous house fires resulting from improper installation work had taken their toll. How could it be possible to properly train enough skilled workers to install insulation properly in over 1.5 million homes in a few short months ? The blame was put on the former environment minister, Peter Gerrard, a past member of the pop music band Midnight Oil.
Then, there was the complete waste of another few billion dollars on rebuilding school facilities many of which are not yet due for redevelopment. It has been reported that some schools are forced to rebuild their facilities against their protest and some had to close classes early in the school year to enable reconstruction to start right away in line with the incumbent Labour government's crash plans to support the economy by creating numerous job in the face of the 2008 financial tsunami no matter what. This is a highly irresponsible attitude which is all geared to the empty fame of becoming the only economy in the developed world to avoid recession. This is so typical of politicians to get their names in the history book at the expense of the ordinary, honest & hard-working citizens. When I see single mothers at the supermarket check-outs returning candy bars meant for the kids and cutting their basic necessities due to the shortage of just one or two dollars I simply jump in anger for the tremendously irresponsible wastes such as the above spending rots not to mention the huge army of the entourage of some 130 members ( including a personal official photographer for Kevin Rudd ) at the Copenhagen World Environment Summit in 2009 bearing in mind that even the USA contingent was smaller than that of Australia. In the face of such sheer waste of taxpayers' dollars, Rudd's downfall ( most probably due to his easy win against John Howard of the former Coalition government back in November, 2007 that has gotten to his head ) is inevitable. Power corrupts and intoxicates. I see few exceptions in politics. Other examples of self-destructive egos can be seen in John Howard and even Margaret Thatcher.
Coming back to the working of the democratic process I am glad to say that it is alive and kicking in my adopted country which I reluctantly accepted due to the the June 4, Tiananmen Massacre and the totalitarian regime in my homeland. According to the latest reports there has been a swing of over 400,000 ( about 3% of voters ) of the primary votes from Labour to the Coalition. However, this should not be construed as the Coalition's success but rather a protest vote because the Coalition has no better offer in terms of policies. I originally plan to cast a blank ballot paper but on second thought that would be dodging my responsibility as a voter. So, I voted for the Green Party instead with the hope of getting a hung parliament which is the way things are heading. Whoever forms the next coalition government cannot have an absolute majority and absolute say in terms of their own party policies. That will be a check and balance on any ruling government run on inflated egos. Democracy means holding your government accountable and I am glad that citizens can still do that effectively in Australia. The great saying of President Abraham Lincoln still rings loud in our ears : - " No man is good enough to govern another man without that other's consent . "
The readers' comments and inputs are warmly welcome !
JKHC
( 22/8/10 at 12.45 a.m. Australian East Coast Standard Time )
There are 150 seats in the House of Representatives so that an absolute majority is 76. The way things are going it would appear that the incumbent Labour government and the opposition Coalition ( between the Liberal and National Party ) will get 73 for Labour, 72 for the Coalition , 3 or 4 for independent candidates ( who are break-away members of the National Party mainly representing rural Queensland interest ) plus 1 or 2 for the Green Party ( the environmental protection party with international connection to all Green Parties worldwide ).
With no clear majority for either the incumbent Labour or the opposition Coalition parties either of them can only form a new government if the independent elected members agree to go into another ruling coalition with either major party. This will take a lot of horse trading because the Governor General will only swear in a coalition government after the minor members ( in this case the independents ) of that coalition have first entered into a charter with the main coalition party to ensure that the new government is a stable and workable governing team. So, the 3 or 4 independent elected members of parliament will have a decisive say to make a new ruling coalition a possibility. This could be a long drawn out process.
Political technicality aside, this election has already proven that the incumbent Labour government is suffering from a severe backlash from some failed policies as well as the dramatic and perhaps sinister circumstances surrounding the sudden change of the former Labour Party leader, Kevin Rudd in late June, 2010. Many voters see the last event as the result of Labour Party power brokers calling the shots by ousting the originally popular former Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd through internal party dirty politics. So much so that the press has dubbed Mr. Rudd's sudden resignation from office a political assassination of the former Prime Minister.
Out of this political high drama emerged the first woman Prime Minister of Australia Julia Gillard in late June. At first it was hailed by society as well as staunch supporters of the equality of the sexes as a great victory for Australian society which is still male dominant. This euphoria quickly died down and the press started talking about the present female Prime Minister, Julia Gillard's role in the political assassination. It transpired that when Kevin Rudd's popularity poll nose dived in May and June after a few failed policies ( to be discussed below ) culminating in the proposed introduction of the 65% super tax on Australian mining companies to fill in the incumbent Labour government's huge deficit black hole Julie Gilliard had made a personal undertaking to Kevin Rudd to support him in his imminent party leadership challenge. This highly confidential arrangement was probably exposed by the Rudd camp in retaliation of the so-called back-stabbing by Julia Gillard.
The allegation of political assassination is well supported by some hard circumstantial evidence. Just 3 days before Julia Gillard became the Labour Party leader upon Rudd's sudden departure she was publicly talking to the press that it was more likely for her to be going to Mars than becoming the next Australian Prime Minister implying that she was not going to challenge Rudd's leadership. It was further alleged that on the evening of the day before Mr. Rudd's sudden resignation Gillard had reassured Rudd again that she would not challenge Rudd at the Labour Party central committee meeting the next day. Within 2 hours of that pledge and after receiving several phone calls from Labour Party power brokers advising Gillard that she had enough committee member votes as canvassed by the brokers to replace Rudd , Gillard called Rudd to advise that she had enough votes to replace him. To avoid an open showdown and preserve the image of party unity in the face of a looming election Rudd was forced to resign forthwith.
This scenario has proved that the Labour Party power brokers can remove the incumbent Prime minister at will regardless of the Australian voters' choices that would have been manifested in the forthcoming election. Furthermore, the personal integrity of Gillard was called into question as she had openly expressed to the press that she would not become Prime Minister by challenging Rudd a few days before she got the job on the behest of the power brokers.
Kevin Rudd did have a lot to do with his own downfall. The final straw came with the proposed super tax on mining companies. Prior to this, the spending rot on the failed 10 billion plus roof insulation scheme and solar panels rebate project that had led to 5 under skilled roof insulation workers being electrocuted and numerous house fires resulting from improper installation work had taken their toll. How could it be possible to properly train enough skilled workers to install insulation properly in over 1.5 million homes in a few short months ? The blame was put on the former environment minister, Peter Gerrard, a past member of the pop music band Midnight Oil.
Then, there was the complete waste of another few billion dollars on rebuilding school facilities many of which are not yet due for redevelopment. It has been reported that some schools are forced to rebuild their facilities against their protest and some had to close classes early in the school year to enable reconstruction to start right away in line with the incumbent Labour government's crash plans to support the economy by creating numerous job in the face of the 2008 financial tsunami no matter what. This is a highly irresponsible attitude which is all geared to the empty fame of becoming the only economy in the developed world to avoid recession. This is so typical of politicians to get their names in the history book at the expense of the ordinary, honest & hard-working citizens. When I see single mothers at the supermarket check-outs returning candy bars meant for the kids and cutting their basic necessities due to the shortage of just one or two dollars I simply jump in anger for the tremendously irresponsible wastes such as the above spending rots not to mention the huge army of the entourage of some 130 members ( including a personal official photographer for Kevin Rudd ) at the Copenhagen World Environment Summit in 2009 bearing in mind that even the USA contingent was smaller than that of Australia. In the face of such sheer waste of taxpayers' dollars, Rudd's downfall ( most probably due to his easy win against John Howard of the former Coalition government back in November, 2007 that has gotten to his head ) is inevitable. Power corrupts and intoxicates. I see few exceptions in politics. Other examples of self-destructive egos can be seen in John Howard and even Margaret Thatcher.
Coming back to the working of the democratic process I am glad to say that it is alive and kicking in my adopted country which I reluctantly accepted due to the the June 4, Tiananmen Massacre and the totalitarian regime in my homeland. According to the latest reports there has been a swing of over 400,000 ( about 3% of voters ) of the primary votes from Labour to the Coalition. However, this should not be construed as the Coalition's success but rather a protest vote because the Coalition has no better offer in terms of policies. I originally plan to cast a blank ballot paper but on second thought that would be dodging my responsibility as a voter. So, I voted for the Green Party instead with the hope of getting a hung parliament which is the way things are heading. Whoever forms the next coalition government cannot have an absolute majority and absolute say in terms of their own party policies. That will be a check and balance on any ruling government run on inflated egos. Democracy means holding your government accountable and I am glad that citizens can still do that effectively in Australia. The great saying of President Abraham Lincoln still rings loud in our ears : - " No man is good enough to govern another man without that other's consent . "
The readers' comments and inputs are warmly welcome !
JKHC
( 22/8/10 at 12.45 a.m. Australian East Coast Standard Time )
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