Where do Australians go from here ?

With a hung parliament arising from the August 21 Federal election the two main parties now have 73 seats for the Liberal / National Party coalition and 72 seats for the caretaker Labour government respectively. Just on the numbers the coalition seems to have the upper hand but I think otherwise.

The key for the successful formation of a new Australian government seems to rest in the 4 independents and 1 Green Party MP in the House of Representatives as well as the 9 Green senators in the Senate. Prior to the election Green and Labour had signed an agreement to allocate the Green votes under the party preference system over to Labour in constituency where the Green had become the second best party in terms of votes. This was done because Green and Labour have a more similar political philosophy compared to the coalition's more conservative or right wing thinking. This being the case Labour has achieved a marginal majority in terms of popular votes over the coalition. Although there has been reports that the coalition has now edged over Labour in this respect by a few thousand popular votes. The final position with regard to the distribution of the popular votes will be known when all counting is completed by September 3.

Despite this seeming catching up by the coalition which could be interpreted as having a marginally better people's mandate the practical result would still depend on the stance of the 4 independent MP and 1 Green who could safely be counted as a Labour supporter as with the preferential vote arrangement between the two parties as mentioned above.

Furthermore 3 out of 4 of the independents are break away members of the National Party ( a member party of the coalition ) which mainly represents rural interests. Each independent MP has his own axe to grind with the National Party. Therefore, the likelihood of a successful co-operation agreement between these independents and the coalition is very much in doubt.

In the Senate, the Green Party now has 9 senators. This commands a delicate balance of power in the upper house. Thus, if Labour can forged an alliance with 3 out of the 4 independents plus 1 Green MP the caretaker Labour government will achieve the required 76 seats in the lower house. Based on the above line of thinking a new Labour minority government in coalition with 1 Green and 3 other independents ( if these are agreeable ) could possibly be formed.

Constitutionally, two things can happen with a hung parliament. First, a minority government could be formed in coalition with the 4 independents or 1 Green MP with 3 of the 4 independent MPs. Second, the caretaker Labour could recommend to the Governor General to hold another general election in the immediate future if the Liberal / National Party coalition also fails to reach a minority government agreement with the 1 Green MP and any 3 of the 4 independent MPs as the Labour Party is trying to do.

The second scenario is unlikely due to the huge cost of another immediate election. Also, there is the paramount concern over voter fatigue.

Should the first scenario materialize the newly formed government could possibly be unstable. If any new legislation which has been initially passed in the Senate is rejected by the House of Representatives twice even after modification this will trigger a double dissolution of the legislature. Another general election must be held forthwith to obtain another voters mandate for the incumbent government ( be it a Labour minority or Liberal / National Party minority government ). This will become a make or break situation for the then incumbent government.

My humble prediction is that Labour has a better chance of forming a minority government but it will seek the earliest possible opportunity to call another election when the opinion polls show a substantial improvement in favour of Labour. Of course, the main obstacle to this cunning move could be prevented by the independents joining the new government to obtain an undertaking from Labour that an early election cannot be called without the independents' consent.

Australians just have to keep their fingers crossed to let the horse trading take its course. Whoever run the next Australian Federal government must learn their lesson from this hung parliament and clean up their acts. Good luck to all Australians. May you be blessed with a better government that the lucky country deserves.

JKHC ( 1/9/10 )