Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 65 ) - March, 27, 2011

Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 65 ) - Ex-ante and Ex-post Statements ( 前瞻句與事後句 ) - March 27, 2011

To think smart, we need to know what we are talking about. In terms of statement contents there are mainly two types of statements we can make. The contents may be predictive in nature which are known technically as Ex-ante statements or statement before the facts have occurred. Alternatively, the contents may be purely narrative or descriptive which are known technically as Ex-post statements or statements after the facts. It is of vital importance to distinguish the former from the latter. If we fail to do this we will most likely come to the wrong conclusion based on what we or other people say.
要有醒目的思維，我們先得了解，自己和他人講話的內容。以內容分類，句子可以主要分作前瞻句子和事後句子兩大類。第一種是有預測性的，叫作前瞻句 （ Ex-ante )，或是稱為事情未發生前的預料。第二種是事後的描述，叫作事後句 （ Ex-post )，或是稱為歷史性的描述。能分辨二者，是很重要的事。為因把它們混淆了，有可能會令我們達至錯誤的結論。


An example of an Ex-ante statement would be :- " I am going to work hard to pass my upcoming examination." Here, I am predicting some thing that is going to happen, namely, future hard work. On the other hand, if I say to my my wife that :- " It is destiny that has led to our chanced meeting and our happy marriage." Here, it is only a statement after the facts of our meeting and marriage. It is history so to speak. We usually have no problems with Ex-ante statements most of which we can easily understand. As regards Ex-post statements we may sometimes attribute to them predictive implications that they do not possess.
讓我舉一個前瞻句的例子，比如我說：「我會努力準備將會來臨的考試。」在這裡，我是預言某些事情的發生，即是說我將會用功。相反地，如果我對太太說：「 是命運安排，令我們相識和結婚。」在這裡，我只是指出這些既定的事實，只是歷史吧了，並無甚麼預測性的內容，這便是事後句子。我們通常很容易明白前瞻句 子，但是對事後句便會有疑難了。問題多出在，錯誤地給予事後句子，一些預測性的能力, 其實它們並沒有這些能耐。


Take my last statement to my wife about destiny for example, I have actually implied that destiny is a supernatural force that has caused us to meet and fall in love whereas it was our free will and personal choices that had caused our marriage to occur. Another example can be found in economics and other intellectual disciplines. When we say the demand for a certain commodity is elastic we are referring to the whole demand curve of that commodity reflecting quantities demanded at different prices when a more than proportional amount is demanded as that of the fall in price. It is an Ex-ante statement making a prediction on the behaviour of the quantities demanded at various prices. On the other hand, simply stating the quantity demanded at a certain price is an Ex-post statement which simply reflects a historic relation between the quantity demanded at a given price. It is history at a point in time. Please be smart thinkers and be able to distinguish between the two kinds of statements for clear thinking.
再次檢討我對太太說有關命運之言論，其實我是暗示了命運是有一種超自然力量，更加可以安排人的未來，當然這是不正確的，因為結婚是我們個人選擇，而相遇也 只是歷史事實。試想，在我們相遇的同一場合，也有其他人存在，為什麼又不說我們和他們有緣份呢？十分明確地，我們的個人選擇，決定了我們自己的將來。另外一個例子，可以在經濟學和其他類似學科尋找到。當我們說某種商品的需求是具有彈性的，這顯示商品被需求的數量增加，會比價格的跌幅比例為大。這是一種 前瞻句子，可以預測那商品在不同價格下，的不同被需求數量，是有預測性的。反之，我們如說，某一商品在某一價格的被需求數量是若干，這便是一種事後句子， 它只是一種歷史的描述。要有醒目的思維，我們必須把二者分辨出來，才可達到清晰的思考過程。


JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )