Americans
are more fearful about the likelihood of another terrorist attack than
at any other time since the weeks after Sept. 11, 2001, a gnawing sense
of dread that has helped lift Donald J. Trump to a new high among Republican primary voters, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
In the aftermath of attacks by Islamic extremists in Paris and in San Bernardino, Calif.,
a plurality of the public views the threat of terrorism as the top
issue facing the country. A month ago, only 4 percent of Americans said
terrorism was the most important problem; now, 19 percent say it is,
above any other issue.
Mr. Trump, who has called for monitoring mosques and even barring Muslims
from entering the United States, has been the clear beneficiary of this
moment of deep anxiety. More than four in 10 Republican primary voters
say the most important quality in a candidate is strong leadership,
which eclipses honesty, empathy, experience or electability. These
voters heavily favor Mr. Trump.
The survey was largely conducted before Mr. Trump’s proposal, announced Monday, to temporarily block Muslims from entering the country.
“He’ll
keep a sharp eye on those Muslims,” Bettina Norden, 60, a farmer in
Springfield, Ore., said in a follow-up interview. “He’ll keep the Patriot Act together. He’ll watch immigration. Stop the Muslims from immigrating.”
Republicans
expressed confidence in Mr. Trump’s ability to confront terrorism:
Seven in 10 voters who said they were likely to vote in a Republican
primary said he was well equipped to respond to the threat, with four in
10 “very confident” he could handle terrorism. Only Senator Ted Cruz of
Texas comes close to those numbers.
But
it is not only Republicans feeling renewed fear about terrorist strikes
on American soil. Forty-four percent of the public says an attack is
“very” likely to happen in the next few months, the most in Times or CBS
News polls since October 2001, just after the deadliest terrorist
assault in the country’s history. Seven in 10 Americans now call the
Islamic State extremist group a major threat to the United States’
security, the highest level since the Times/CBS News poll began asking
the question last year.
Concerns on Terrorism
Poll respondents give their opinions on the terrorism threat, and on their candidate’s ability to handle it.
AMERICANS’ CONCERNS ABOUT TERRORISM ARE HEIGHTENED
Percent of respondents saying
a terrorist attack is very or somewhat
likely in the next few months
How concerned are you about…
... the threat of terrorism against
Americans committed by terrorists entering
the U.S. from other countries?
Don’t
know/
no
answer
SEPT. 20 - 23, 2001
DEC. 4 - 8, 2015
78%
79%
Not
very
Not
at all
80
%
Very
Somewhat
59%
26
10
4
1
60
... the threat of terrorism against
Americans committed by people currently
living in the U.S. who are inspired
by foreign extremists?
Don’t
know/
no
answer
Not
very
Not
at all
40
Very
Somewhat
63%
26
7
4
1
Do you think the militant group
ISIS is a threat to the security
of the United States, or not?
20
Don’t
know/
no
answer
Yes,
major
Yes,
minor
Not a
threat
0
70%
16
11
3
’02
’04
’06
’08
’10
’12
’14
PRIMARY VOTERS RATE THEIR PARTY’S CANDIDATES ON TERRORISM
How confident are you in the candidate’s ability to handle the threat of terrorism?
Not
too
Not
at all
Not
too
Not
at all
No
opinion
No
opinion
Very
Somewhat
Very
Somewhat
40%
31
13
15
1
35%
43
12
9
2
DONALD J. TRUMP
HILLARY CLINTON
30
41
13
9
7
14
39
25
12
11
TED CRUZ
BERNIE SANDERS
20
39
19
12
10
MARCO RUBIO
17
36
22
22
3
JEB BUSH
16
43
21
16
4
BEN CARSON
The
public has little faith in President Obama’s handling of terrorism and
the threat from the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL.
Fifty-seven percent of Americans disapprove of his handling of
terrorism, and seven in 10 say the fight against the Islamic State is
going badly. There have been few foreign-directed terrorist attacks in
the United States in the past decade, and American officials have
repeatedly said that there is no credible evidence of planning for a
large-scale attack in the United States by the Islamic State or its
supporters.
Yet
while Mr. Trump may be benefiting among Republicans from a perceived
loss of safety, he remains a highly divisive figure with the broader
electorate. Sixty-four percent of voters said they would be concerned or
scared about what he would do if he became president. And while he
occupies a commanding position among Republican primary voters, with
more than twice the support of his nearest competitor, his backers are
still a minority of that relatively small population.
Even
as he leads the Republican field in support, he also has the most
Republican primary voters, 23 percent, who say they would be most
dissatisfied with him as the party’s nominee.
“It’s
the things he says and how he says them,” said Bill Rogers, 43, of
Xenia, Ohio, who supports John R. Kasich, the state’s Republican
governor. “He’s just too blunt and straightforward, and it’s scary. He
doesn’t hold anything back. Some people think the way he speaks is
offensive, and I’m one of them.”
Perceptions
about the likelihood of another attack are also carrying over into how
Americans feel about the state of the country over all.
Just
24 percent say the country is headed in the right direction, the lowest
figure in a Times or CBS News survey in more than two years. More than
half of the public, 53 percent, say they are dissatisfied with how
things are going in Washington; another 31 percent say they are angry.
This
profound discontent is animating the Republican presidential race. Mr.
Trump now has the support of 35 percent of Republican primary voters, a
substantial increase from late October, when he was the choice of 22
percent of Republicans and was edged out by Ben Carson.
Mr. Carson, who has struggled with foreign policy questions since the Paris attacks
last month, has fallen as much as Mr. Trump has gained since October
and is now winning 13 percent of Republican primary voters. Mr. Cruz has
increased his share of the vote to 16 percent from 4 percent in
October. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida takes 9 percent, and the rest of
the Republican contenders are below 5 percent each.
Document: A New York Times/CBS News Poll on Terrorism and the 2016 Race
Mr. Trump remains the focus of the race for many Republicans, for better or worse.
“He
stands up to people, and he tells what’s on his mind,” Philip Austin,
66, a retired insurance executive in Raleigh, N.C., said.
“Unfortunately, even though people don’t want to hear it because a lot
of what he says is inflammatory toward certain groups, it is the truth,
because we have a massive problem.”
What
has not changed from the last survey is the reliability of Mr. Trump’s
supporters, an indication that he has a durable floor of support. While
only a third of Republican primary voters expressing support for a
candidate said their minds were made up, Mr. Trump’s backing is far more
firm: 51 percent of his supporters say their minds are made up.
Twenty-six
percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters said Mr. Cruz was their second
choice, more than any other candidate. Mr. Cruz does well with
evangelicals and voters who describe themselves as “very conservative,”
running closely with Mr. Trump among each group.
But
many Republicans are filled with both fury and fear, and it is Mr.
Trump who is most effectively tapping into these boiling anxieties.
Forty-four percent of Republican primary voters say they are angry about
the way things are going in Washington, and of those voters, 43 percent
support Mr. Trump.
“I’m
mad about the Muslims coming in, I’m mad about the economy and I’m mad
because we got a stupid president, and that’s about it,” said Manuel
Hart, 71, a retired fire chief in Silver Springs, Fla., appending a
pungent three-letter word onto “stupid.”
Asked
whether it was more important for a candidate to agree with them on
issues or to have the best chance of winning the general election, 62
percent of Republican primary voters cited issues, while just 36 percent
said electability.
The
country’s trepidation about another act of terrorism is having less
effect on the Democratic contest, but Democratic voters expressed more
confidence in Hillary Clinton’s ability to respond to terrorism than
they did in Bernie Sanders’s. Mrs. Clinton has the support of 52 percent
of Democratic primary voters, while Mr. Sanders takes 32 percent, a
difference that has changed little in recent weeks.
What
has shifted notably are attitudes on gun control. Only 44 percent of
Americans favor a ban on assault weapons, 19 percentage points lower
than after the mass shooting in Tucson in 2011. And while 51 percent
favor stricter gun control in general, that is down from 58 percent in
October.
The
nationwide telephone poll was conducted Dec. 4 to 8 on cellphones and
landlines with 1,275 adults, including 431 Republican primary voters and
384 Democratic primary voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or
minus three percentage points for all adults, six percentage points for
Republican primary voters and six percentage points for Democratic
primary voters.
Megan Thee-Brenan, Giovanni Russonello and Marina Stefan contributed reporting.
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