My personal assessment of the US election 2016 - JKHC

There are less than 48 hours before the polls are open for all voters in the 2016 US presidential election. Over 40 million voters have already cast their votes in early voting. This is roughly shy of one-third of the total electorate. Without doubt this is the most negative election campaign in US history. Also, the major parties candidates are the least popular in US history. The following are my personal views from the perspective of a non-US voter. At the end of this blog I also boldly venture to give my own predictions of the election result. I am personally interested in this particular US election as a global citizen. As USA is the second largest world economy her policies will directly impact the global economy and her foreign policies will directly affect world security and stability. To this extent every global citizen should be informed about this particular election which is also the most unpredictable election in US history.

General

(1) Opinion polls - They are just what they are which are sampled opinions based on a small statistically significant population of voters. They are not perfect or not even perfectly designed sometimes. Scientifically, there are also margins of errors to be taken into account of the results. Consequently, there could be up to something like 5% plus or minus margin. The latest polls generally put Clinton to be some 1.5% to 3% ahead of Trump which is well within the margin of error.

(2) Electoral votes - US presidential election is based on the electoral votes which usually means winner takes all electoral votes in a particular state and in some a proportional electoral votes are allocated to each candidate based on the popular votes they received. Therefore, even when a candidate gets a slightly more number of popular votes does not mean he ore she will win the presidency. This happened in the year 2000 when Al Gore won a small margin in popular votes over George Bush ( Junior ) but the latter won more electoral votes. Based on the population every state has a different number of electoral votes.

(3) Party mandate - In the past, the tradition is for most if not all party members ( be they Democrats or Republicans ) to support their own party nominee almost whole heartedly but this time around many Republican members are openly against Trump and declare their intention to vote for independent candidates ( such as Libertarians or even Hillary who is the opposing Democratic candidate ). This revolt will upset the boat in an unpredictable manner.

(4) Hillary Clinton's platform - Her campaign slogan is STRONGER TOGETHER. Her platform is mostly a continuation of the Obama administration with special emphasis on female voters ( especially young female voters ). She is pro-life and liberal towards the LGBT community. She is sympathetic to immigrants and refugees but seen to be tolerant of or even supportive of Wall Street which is unpopular with workers, employees and individual investors. She is for globalisation and protection of the environment. Her foreign policies are even stronger than Obama's - containment of China, stronger ties with NATO and other Asian allies. In short, she has clear and definite policy goals unlike the evasive Trump.

(5) Donald Trump's platform - His campaign slogan is MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. He mostly targets the disenfranchised, unemployed works whom he said :- " What have you got to lose ? " ( in taking a chance with him being president ). His only definite policy is to build a high wall  along the Mexican border and to force Mexico to pay for it ( But how ? He did not even discuss the details when he met the Mexican president who condemned his suggestion after the meeting ). He will deport up to 15 million illegally immigrants immediately ( How soon ? He said with the first 100 days of his taking up office ). He will ask NATO, Japan and South Korea to pay for their national defence which are all currently under the US military umbrella. He will impose tariff on Chinese steel but did not say what happens if China retaliates. He will increase US employment but did not say how specifically. In fact, he will resort to protectionism by cancelling the Trans Pacific Partnership free trade treaty and curb globalisation ( through protectionism and imposition of tariffs ). He will ban Muslims from entering USA immediately. He will withdraw from Paris Climate Agreement supported by all 197 nations on earth. He will also withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran. He will dismantle 70% of the red tape organisation in the US government but not mentioning how that is possible.

(6) Hillary Clinton's track records - Her 30 years experience in politics and public service is both an asset and liability. She had been involved in a number of scandals including the infamous private email server problem, Clinton Foundation conflict of interest issue, terrorist attack that killed the US ambassador in Benghazi, Libya and White Water financial scandal back in 1980s. Also, she is generally viewed as a dirty politician by the growing anti-establishment lobby group. This anti-establishment and anti-globalisation trend is growing fast worldwide.

(7) Donald Trump's track record - He has no public service record nor has he been in politics except being a celebrity TV personality ( most notably - Celebrity Apprentice ) and a businessman ( who said he was smart for avoiding payment of tax for 18 years ). On the other hand, no service record means no political scandal but he is now and has always been dogged by sex scandals. His supporters mostly  say they support him because he is a successful businessman who can fix the US unemployment situation and create jobs. This is obviously not supported by facts as Trump had been involved in a chain of bankruptcies relating to his casinos and the failed Trump University in which fraud was alleged. Anyway, he is perceived by his supporters to be a successful businessman.

Campaign resources and support base

(8) Hillary Clinton - She has over 200 campaign offices nation wide supported by thousands of volunteers and her campaign donations are estimated to be more than double Trump's. She has famous supporters including President Obama and the very popular First Lady ( Michelle Obama ) not to mention endorsement from most newspapers and celebrities.

(9) Donald Trump - His campaign resources including donations and personnel are estimated to be less than half of Hillary's. He has no endorsement from any major newspapers and just a few minor celebrities.

(10) Hillary Clinton - Her support base is formed by white female middle class voters, middle class working black voters ( but not to the extent commanded by President Obama ), Hispanics and the LGBT community and better educated liberal white male voters. She is yet to win over the majority of younger female voters.

(11) Donald Trump - His support base is mainly formed by conservative white male ( especially white supremacists ) and unemployed black voters who feel betrayed by the establishment. White male and some white female voters who detest the Clintons.

Personality issues

(12) Hillary Clinton - She is generally perceived to be cold and lacks compassion towards the disenfranchised and deprived sector of society ( her comment on Trump supporters as " a basket of deplorables " strengthens this view ). She has integrity issues and is thought to be using her public position to amass wealth for herself and her family. The Clinton Foundation provides lots of ammunition for her opponents on this claim. She is seen to be careless in executing her public duties as evidenced by her private email server scandal and the terrorist attack on the Benghazi US embassy that killed the US ambassador. She is generally viewed as a black sheep of the establishment and a bit pro-Wall Street which is hated by most voters after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

(13) Donald Trump - He has proven himself as having very low EQ and being a sociopath, racist, and an egocentric in the campaign. So much so that even his own election team protested numerous times. He has alienated the Mexicans ( by calling them criminals and rapists ), Muslims ( by blending them terrorists ), military veterans ( by saying that captured solders are no heroes ), the Hispanics ( by calling for immediate deportation of 15 million illegal immigrants many of whom have US citizens as their children and relatives ), most US allied countries like NATO, Japan and South Korea. Worst of all, Trump called upon Russia to hack into the Democratic website to help defeat Hillary Clinton. He also openly declared war on the democratic system by saying that he will never accept the election results if he loses - a basic violation of the democratic process. He also made fun of a disabled reporter which is the worst mistake one can make to highlight the dark side of one's character.

My assessments

 Taking all the above factors into consideration I have the following predictions although they are purely my personal opinion in the face of the most unpredictable US election ever :-

(14) The key states to watch by order of importance are :- Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Trump must win Florida to have any chance of winning the presidency. Latest estimates put Hillary Clinton at 273 electoral college votes while Trump 265. It is this close at this point in time. The magic number for becoming US president is 270.

(15) For Clinton the higher the voter turnout the better it is for her. This is because most Trump supporters are die hards and will surely vote for him. Many of them are unemployed anyway. For Hillary she must have more young female voters support and black voters support to ensure her success. In view of the close opinion polls of down to 1.5 % lead by Hillary I think voter turnout is vital for Hillary Clinton.

(16) From the early voting signs Hispanic voters turnout is higher than 2012 in Florida. This is good for Clinton but overall black voters turnout is down from 2012 when black voters came out en mass to support Obama. Black voters turnout is currently not good for Clinton. The call from Obama to black voters to support his legacy may help to increase black voters turnout on November 8. This is crucial for Clinton success.

(17) Frankly, I think voters have already make up their minds by now. It is just a matter of coming out to vote. The independent candidates such as the Libertarians could have an adverse impact for Clinton as they currently commands 5% to 7% of voter support according to the polls.

(18) Trump runs his campaign on hate and fear similar to Adolf Hitler. I do not think this will work under the current US economic environment. Firstly, his slogan of no more 4 years of Obama is counter productive as Obama has reduced the national debt and improved employment ( current unemployment rate in USA is 5.6% ) during his 8 years in office despite great hindrance from the Republican majority Senate. Furthermore, President Obama is the third all time most popular president. It would not be bad to have 4 more years.

(19) I boldly estimate the popular votes to be some 65 millions for Clinton and perhaps 61 millions for Trump. As regards the most important electoral college votes, I predict 302 for Clinton and 236 for Trump.

(20) If Trump wins not only the USA but the whole world economy will suffer from his protectionist trade policy and his unstable character bringing the risk of nuclear holocaust not to mention that US citizens will also suffer from his impulsive decisions. On the other hand, even if Clinton defeats Trump she will definitely have a very hard time fighting against greater hindrance from Republicans in the US Congress. I also confidently predict that Trump will incite his supporters into violence against the voting results if he loses.

Let us all keep our fingers crossed on November 8. God save us all if Trump wins !

JKHC

November 7, 2016.