Trump presidency offers Opportunity to World’s Autocrats to world autocrats - New York Times

Trump Presidency Could Offer Opportunity to World’s Autocrats
By ROD NORDLAND
FEBRUARY 1, 2017
BEIRUT, Lebanon — Kim Jong-unmight seem an unlikely player in the global jockeying to get on the new American president’s good side, given the North Korean leader’s implied threats as recently as New Year’s Day to launch nuclear missiles at the United States.
But Mr. Kim apparently sees in President Trump “a good opportunity for him to open a kind of compromise with the new American administration,” North Korea’s highest-ranking defector, Thae Yong-ho, said in an interview with CNN last week.
The bromance between President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Mr. Trump is the most prominent example of a trend that has swept the world, instilling new hope for a strongman-friendly America in countries like the Philippines, Turkey or Egypt, and among nationalists in many other places who hope to follow in Mr. Trump’s footsteps and gain political power.
Many appear to see a Trump presidency as an opportunity to engage with a like-minded leader who has stated nationalist aims. Others may hope for respite from criticism over their human rights records or authoritarian tendencies. Some, like Mr. Kim and Mr. Putin, might see an opportunity to further their national aims in a new geopolitical order.
The historian Timothy Garton Ash, writing in The Guardian, called the Trump presidency “a new era of nationalism” in which “the nationalists are giving one another the Trumpian thumbs-up across the seas.”
The Philippine president, Rodrigo Duterte, who called former President Barack Obama a “son of a whore” for the Obama administration’s criticism of an officially sanctioned assassination campaign against drug dealers in the Philippines, was quick to congratulateMr. Trump on his election victory. The Philippine president said last week that Mr. Trump had sent him a message of support.
Mr. Duterte, who has threatened to break off relations with the United States, a longtime ally, and turn to China instead, made the announcement during an appearance at the Miss Universe pageant in Manila. (Like Mr. Trump, who owned Miss Universe until 2015, Mr. Duterte has long reveled in appearing in public with beauty queens.)
Mr. Duterte appeared unfazed by Mr. Trump’s order last week blocking refugees from the United States and curtailing immigration from some mainly Muslim countries, saying on Sunday that “I will not lift a finger” to help Filipinos facing deportation from the United States, according to The Philippine Daily Inquirer.
Even those who were contemptuous of Mr. Trump when he was a reality show star considered a long-shot to win the presidency have changed their tune.
In June, after Mr. Trump said he would bar Muslims from entering the United States, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey demanded that Mr. Trump’s name be removed from Trump Towers Istanbul. Mr. Erdogan, an Islamist, has arrested or fired 100,000 opponents and jailed 40,000 more after an unsuccessful military coup last summer.
After Mr. Trump’s election, Mr. Erdogan shifted his stance. “I believe we will reach a consensus with Mr. Trump, particularly on regional issues,” Mr. Erdogan said this month during a meeting with Turkish diplomats. Some cracks appeared to show after Mr. Trump’s immigration order Friday: Mr. Erdogan called the move “frankly disturbing.” But he said he would still meet with Mr. Trump at an unspecified date and raise the issue then.
And the name of Trump Towers remains unchanged.
In Egypt, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who has smarted from American criticism about the country’s human rights record and about the military coup that brought him to power, appears to be welcoming Mr. Trump’s leadership. In December, after a phone call from Mr. Trump, Mr. Sisi agreed to delay a vote in the United Nations Security Council on Israeli settlements.
Mr. Sisi’s silence in the face of the executive order on refugees was conspicuous, despite widespread sentiment in the region that it was anti-Muslim.
In Kazakhstan, the country’s “president for life,” Nursultan A. Nazarbayev, whose poor human rights record is well documented, said Mr. Trump had called him in December and complimented him on the “miracle” he had wrought in his country over its 25 years of independence. Mr. Trump was apparently not referring to Mr. Nazarbayev’s 2015 re-election, which the Kazakh leader won with 97.7 percent of the vote.
Mr. Trump has also been lauded by nationalists in Europe, where his anti-immigration messages resonate on a continent that has been swamped with refugees from wars in countries like Syria and with economic migrants. Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, has welcomed Mr. Trump’s victory, as have far-right leaders such as Marine Le Pen in France.
Some of the enthusiasm by authoritarian leaders for Mr. Trump’s presidency seems to be linked to his stated inclination to overturn the world order. That may include rethinking alliances like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or tackling long-running issues such as North Korea and its nuclear arms program — now overseen by Mr. Kim.
In reality, Mr. Kim is still a long way from becoming a friend of Mr. Trump, despite the assertions last week by Mr. Thae, the North Korean defector.
Mr. Kim’s anti-American statements have been belligerent even after the election of Mr. Trump, who responded to a supposed North Korean missile threat by posting on Twitter, “It won’t happen!” That led Jeffrey Lewis, a nonproliferation expert, to worry in the magazine Foreign Policy that “Donald Trump is already tweeting us into war with North Korea.”
However, Mr. Trump did suggest last year that if he were elected he might meet with Mr. Kim. The offer left the foreign policy establishment shuddering at what many would see as a serious breach of protocol, essentially acknowledging the leader of a state that the United States does not recognize.
“I would speak to him. I would have no problem speaking to him,” Mr. Trump said during an interview with Reuters in May.
The North Korean and American leaders may find other common ground. When Mr. Trump signed an executive order declaring Jan. 20, his inauguration day, as a “National Day of Patriotic Devotion,” social media feeds lit up withcomparisons to declarations from North Korea’s regime of similarly named occasions.
For leaders like Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Sisi, the Trump presidency could provide a respite from criticism of their increasingly repressive governments, and it might even validate their tactics.
Like other authoritarian leaders, Mr. Erdogan has been a firm ally of the United States and a prickly critic of it. Turkey hosts American military bases and is a member of NATO. But many of Mr. Erdogan’s supporters blamed the United States for the attempted military coup, and Mr. Erdogan has chafed under human rights criticism from Washington of its crackdown on opponents and the news media.
Turkish officials have said they are hopeful that the American military will end its cooperation with Kurdish fighters in eastern Turkey. The Pentagon considers the Kurds to be valuable allies, while the Turks see them as terrorist supporters of Kurdish PKK rebels inside Turkey.
Turkey has reason to be hopeful. Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn, published comments on Election Day calling for stronger support for the Turkish government. Mr. Flynn’s consulting company, Flynn Intel Group, had a contract at the time with a Turkish business association loosely affiliated with the Erdogan government.
Mr. Erdogan, who has jailed more journalists than any other leader in the past year, was almost gleeful after Mr. Trump shouted down the CNN reporterJim Acosta at a news conference in January, responding to CNN and BuzzFeed reports on intelligence briefings regarding unsubstantiated allegations of Russian efforts to blackmail Mr. Trump.
“Those who carried out that game back then in Turkey have done him wrong again during the news conference,” Mr. Erdogan said after the event, referring to CNN. “And Mr. Trump put the reporter of that group in his place.”
Even with all the friendly words, it is unclear whether Mr. Trump and thin-skinned leaders like Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Duterte will be able to maintain their warm relationships.
In Manila, for example, Mr. Duterte’s appreciation of Mr. Trump’s support was qualified. He said he sent a reply to Mr. Trump, via Miss Universe organizers, complaining about his apparent exclusion from Mr. Trump’s inauguration. “I said tell him, ‘Friend, I didn’t go to the inauguration because I wasn’t invited.’”
New York Times