Kim Jong Un’s weapons milestones have shifted balance of power in east Asia - Financial Times

Trump-Kim barbs obscure new reality for South Korea

Kim Jong Un’s weapons milestones have shifted balance of power in east Asia.

In recent weeks a nervous world has watched on as Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un trade recriminations and threats of annihilation.

But for many in Seoul, the brinkmanship from the US and North Korean leaders has obscured a more profound development: Pyongyang has already succeeded in changing the balance of power in the region.

The reclusive nation’s recent success in bolstering its military capability has not only made it a more formidable potential foe; it has also deepened tensions among the US and its allies by changing the facts on the ground and the strategic calculations based on them.

North Korea has achieved twin milestones this year, successfully testing long-range ballistic missiles and its most powerful nuclear weapon — a device the regime claims was a hydrogen bomb. Analysts and former officials in South Korea say the developments amount to “game-changers” that can fundamentally undermine Washington’s longstanding security commitment to north-east Asia and could spark a nuclear arms race in the region.

“North Korea’s intention is very aggressive. They want to rewrite the regional order to their liking,” says Kim Jae-chun, a professor at Sogang University and a former South Korean government adviser.

“The objective of North Korea is to dismantle the US-Republic of Korea partnership. In this regard, the intercontinental ballistic missile is a game-changer.”

Events this year have aided the goal of sowing dissension among the US and its allies and stoked worries about the escalation of a crisis in which South Korea could be first in the line of fire.

Fears of a rift between a dovish Seoul and a more aggressive Washington gained ground after the nuclear test at the start of September. Mr Trump used the occasion to accuse Moon Jae-in, South Korea’s president, of appeasement.

Seoul has also been unnerved by Mr Trump’s combative response to North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests — including his threat in a UN speech to “totally destroy” the country.

But at the same time South Korea and Japan are also highly aware of Mr Trump’s unpredictability — and the possibility that he might water down longstanding US guarantees to the region.

Analysts say North Korea’s technological advances mean it could now launch military action against South Korea or Japan, while holding US forces at bay with the threat of a nuclear attack on its mainland.

Since the most recent tests, a growing chorus of voices has asked the same question: in a future conflict, would the US be willing to risk one of its own cities to protect Seoul?

Pyongyang could also use dialogue — potentially proposing a freeze in testing in exchange for US withdrawal or reduction of its 30,000 US troops in South Korea — to weaken the alliance between Seoul and Washington.

“In this way Trump can announce victory, saying he has achieved peace on the peninsula, which for him is politically feasible, says Kim Byoung-joo, a professor of international relations at the KDI School of Public Policy. “But the problem is, a freeze now means nothing [since North Korea has increased its nuclear and missile capability so much]. It will be a win-lose game [for South Korea].”

Prof Kim adds that such an outcome would also be a “winning scenario” for China and Russia, “whose top priority is limiting the US presence in the region. They are winning the game of balancing against the US.”

Like most analysts on the peninsula, Bob Kelly, a professor at Busan National University, does not believe war is likely or that North Korea will attack the US — a move that would entail massive retaliation and the destruction of the Kim Jong Un regime.

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Instead, he argues, Pyongyang will use its nuclear weapons to “shake down” Seoul and Tokyo for concessions and aid: “Coercive nuclear bullying — not war — is the real threat.”

Prof Kelly also maintains that the crisis could spark a wider regional arms race — which many think is already happening. 

Both Tokyo and Seoul are attempting to boost their missile defences, with South Korea this year deploying an advanced US-operated missile shield. There are also growing calls in South Korea to redeploy US tactical nuclear weapons or even develop the country’s own.

“In order to avoid real danger, we have to arm ourselves with nuclear weapons. But it would be nuclear armament for the sake of nuclear disarmament. It would allow us talk evenly with Pyongyang,” says Prof Kim of KDI

Mr Moon has rejected such calls — but he in his turn has been attacked by South Korean hawks for limiting the country’s policy options and weakening its negotiating leverage.

“The only way to ensure survival is to have more power,” adds Prof Kim. the former South Korean government adviser. “This is a really critical time. Everything should be on the table, including South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons.”