Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 68 ) - Government Failing the People ( 政府辜負了老百姓 ) - April 6, 2011
As can be seen time and time again it is always the government that fails its people. The most recent natural disasters in Japan culminating in the unfolding nuclear disaster is a case in point. While the whole world marvels at the noble discipline of the Japanese people and their calmness and steadfastness in the face of tremendous adversities the Japanese government is dwarfed and put in a bad light for its feet dragging ( especially over the handling of the nuclear disaster ) and disorganized response in times of life threatening emergency. Not only are the rescue and life supporting efforts proven to be inadequate the Japanese government's less than hand on approach to the nuclear disaster may yet lead to the deepening of the crisis. According to the Japanese constitution the prime minister is supposed to set up a nuclear disaster coordinating department personally headed by him to take direct charge over the calamity. Instead, it was mostly up to the secretary of the cabinet to make sparse announcements on the ongoing crisis and the related disaster support efforts. Only once did the prime minister visit the disaster areas. This is obviously poor performance by any standard.
歷史中有着無數例子， 盡是政府辜負了老百姓。最近在日本發生的極大災難，地震，海嘯而引起核電工廠洩漏輻射事件，又再次證明，永遠都是政府辜負了老百 姓。當全世界都稱讚日本老百姓，展示了無比社會紀律和極度忍耐，卻將日本政府的混亂和缺乏應變能力比下去了。政府對核電危機的緩慢反應，優柔寡斷，都是一派低 效率的寫照。除了拯救和善後支援，都表現差勁外，對輻射洩漏的束手無策，更加使危機有惡化趨勢。日本憲法有規定，如果遇上原子能的意外事件，首相是必須成 立特別委員會，由他親自直接處理。至今，我們多看見內閣秘書，在電視前面發佈言論，首相只有到過災難現場一次吧了。這是十分差勁的工作表現，更談不上鮮明 領導了。
The belated request for international assistance and passive cooperation with the IAEA the UN body in charge of monitoring nuclear accidents all reflected badly on the Japanese government's less than satisfactory efficiency. Apart from the possible intention to conceal or at least delay bad news the naive tendency to avoid the so-called loss of face could be another factor. While all citizens of the world generally expect simply a decent livelihood including basic humans right from their governments all establishments ( to a greater or lesser extent ) are geared at monopoly of power and incumbency of office as long as possible. This is the eternal conflict between the government and the governed. Having regards to the fact that a government should only stay in power so long as the people's mandate is with them there is absolutely no valid reason for its continued existence. Just like the WWII Nazis, the military government of the past Japanese Empire, the Gang of Four in China, the money for votes political parties in Taiwan and even the corporations favouring tendency in some US governments they were or are all failing the people in some major or minor ways. I am not going to do them the courtesy in even mentioning some repressive regimes such as Burma, Cuba, North Korea, the Middle East and Africa. Some of these dictators and other single party governments are holding on to power under the pretext of being the father to their nation. The great physicist, Richard Feynman once said :- " It is easy to cheat people and you are the easiest person to cheat. " This is so true ! Yet we must not forget what some great statesmen ( they are definitely not politicians ) such as President Abraham Lincoln who said this :- " You can fool all the people some of the time or some of the people all the time but you can never fool all of the people all the time. " When you , one of the people, becomes part of the government machinery you must heed these two pieces of wise counsel.
日本政府延遲向外國提出援助的要求，以及其被動地和IAEA（國際原子能監管處 ）合作和協調，更顯示了其試圖隱瞞或延遲發佈壞消息，將它的低效率表現無遺。可能原因，除了是試圖報喜不報憂外，更有可能是幼稚的面子問題，希望自己可以 應付一切，直到不能處理為止。所有世界上的老百姓，都是希望擁有一般像樣的溫飽，以及基本的人權吧了，而所有政府都是以不同的程度，去試圖爭取獨自當權， 以及永遠延長統治權。這就是政府和老百姓的永恆矛盾。常理告訴我們，政府是老百姓授權的施政機構，如果沒有他們的同意，那政府實在是沒有存在的合法基礎， 應立即解散，重新經過公平和公開的選舉，再度贏得公民的合法授權，才可繼續執政。就有如二次大戰的德國納粹黨，以前日本帝國的軍事政府，中國六十年代的四 人幫，台灣黑金政治的政黨，甚至美國很多傾向支持大企業的政府，都是不同程度地辜負了老百姓。其他專制獨裁的政權，如緬甸，古巴，北韓，以及某些中東，非洲 軍事政府，更不值得一提。總而言之，一切不尊重個人基本權利的政權，都應受到強烈的指責。這些政權，往往以為老百姓謀幸福作口號，以國家救星自居。其實在這 世界上沒有無了任何人便不成這回事，全都是一派胡言吧了。偉大的物理學家，李察費應文（ Richard Feynman )說得對:「 人是十分容易被欺騙的，而你自己便是最容易被你自己欺騙的人了。」不過我們也應聽取林肯總統的名言:「你可以暫時欺騙所有人，或長期欺騙一些人，但是，你 不可能長期欺騙所有人的。」當你有機會成為政府機構的一員，請深深反省以上的智理名言。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 67 ) - April 2, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 67 ) - Self Reference Statement ( 自我參照的句子) - April 2, 2011
Language, logic and truth are all inter-connected like most natural or inter-personal phenomena in this world. In fact, language is the product of our consciousness which is in turn the basis and tool for our understanding of reality as we know it. According to the famous British scientist and mathematical physicist, Sir Roger Penrose who wrote the huge book The Road to Reality : A Complete guide to the Laws of the Universe there are, in fact, three separate sets of realities in this world - the physical world governed by invariant laws of nature ; our private mental world controlled by our own personal creative and imaginative rules and the perfect but theoretical mathematical world operated by rules of pure logic with absolute accuracy.
語言，邏輯和真理，都是互相關聯的事物，這就正如大多數自然界和人際關係的事情一般。其實，語言是我們意識下的產品，而意識又是我們接觸現實的基礎和工 具。根據英國數學物理學家，羅渣本諾斯 （ Sir Roger Penrose ) 在他的長達一千頁的巨著，The Road to Reality : A Complete Guide to the Laws of the Universe ( 到現實之路）中所詳述，現實是分為三個層面的。它們就是，被永不變易定律控制着的自然世界，擁有着個人的創造性和強大幻想力的精神世界，以及完美和純邏輯的精 確數學世界三者。
Let us talk about the language we must use to communicate with other living beings to get some insight into this important communication tool. Apart from the Ex-ante and Ex-post statements ( see my blog entry here :- http://jkhcforum.blogspot.com/2011/03/thoughts-to-you-from-yours-truly-65.html ) with predictive and simply historical contents respectively there are also some special cases of logically inconsistent statements in terms of their content. These are called self reference statements as discovered by the great British philosopher, Bertrand Russell. Although this is a very special case smart thinkers should also be aware of its existence to avoid getting into an illogical fallacy.
讓我們談談有關語言這種重要的溝通工具，希望藉機獲得一些深刻見解。除了以前提及的Ex-ante ( 前瞻句）和Ex-post (事後句），分別為預測性和歷史性的句語（ 在我這裡的部落格可重溫 http://jkhcforum.blogspot.com/2011/03/thoughts-to-you-from- yours-truly-65.html ）之外，也有些特殊句子，它們裡面是存在着一些邏輯上的謬誤，稱為self reference statement （自我參照句子），是偉大的英國哲學家，羅素（Bertrand Russell )所發現的。雖然它們只是極少數例子，但是作為一個有醒目思維的人，我們也應該認識到它們的性質和存在,以免墮入它們的邏輯謬誤中。
Take this question for example :- " This statement is wrong, true or false ? " If we say " true " then it would mean that the statement is wrong. On the other hand, if we say " false " it would mean that the statement is right. Either way, we end up with an illogical answer. The reason lies with the negative meaning of the word wrong and the positive and negative meanings of the other two words " true " and " false " respectively. Since the statement itself refers to nothing outside its own construction ( or some other fact apart from itself ) it is called a self reference statement. This will result in the combined effect of the word " wrong " ( a negative ) with the word " false " ( another negative ) to make the result positive ( implying the positive and opposite meaning of " right " ) - two negatives make a positive. If the other positive word " true " is applied then the resulting meaning will be of a negative meaning " wrong " ) - a negative and a positive makes a negative. This is interesting but shows that there exist inconsistencies in our language.
拿以下的問題為例:「這句子是錯的，是或否？」如果我們說是，那句子便是錯的了。反之，如果我們說否，那句子便是對的了。這樣一來，無論我們說是或否，都會產生邏輯上的謬誤。原 因在於那個錯字，是有負面的意思，而是與否兩者，卻分別帶着正面和負面的意思。由於這句子是自我參照句，即是說它只是針對自己，沒有涉及句子以外的事物。 這樣，如果我們說否，否字和錯字都是負面的意思，於是負負得正，便得到相反的正確那意思。假如我們說是字，這則有正面的意思，而錯字卻有負面意思，這樣一 來，正負便得負，所以句子便有錯的意思，這也正是其原本字面的意思。以上的情況，十分有趣，但比較罕見，卻證明了我們日常所用的語言，當中確是存在着一些 邏輯上的謬誤，切記為上策！
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Language, logic and truth are all inter-connected like most natural or inter-personal phenomena in this world. In fact, language is the product of our consciousness which is in turn the basis and tool for our understanding of reality as we know it. According to the famous British scientist and mathematical physicist, Sir Roger Penrose who wrote the huge book The Road to Reality : A Complete guide to the Laws of the Universe there are, in fact, three separate sets of realities in this world - the physical world governed by invariant laws of nature ; our private mental world controlled by our own personal creative and imaginative rules and the perfect but theoretical mathematical world operated by rules of pure logic with absolute accuracy.
語言，邏輯和真理，都是互相關聯的事物，這就正如大多數自然界和人際關係的事情一般。其實，語言是我們意識下的產品，而意識又是我們接觸現實的基礎和工 具。根據英國數學物理學家，羅渣本諾斯 （ Sir Roger Penrose ) 在他的長達一千頁的巨著，The Road to Reality : A Complete Guide to the Laws of the Universe ( 到現實之路）中所詳述，現實是分為三個層面的。它們就是，被永不變易定律控制着的自然世界，擁有着個人的創造性和強大幻想力的精神世界，以及完美和純邏輯的精 確數學世界三者。
Let us talk about the language we must use to communicate with other living beings to get some insight into this important communication tool. Apart from the Ex-ante and Ex-post statements ( see my blog entry here :- http://jkhcforum.blogspot.com/2011/03/thoughts-to-you-from-yours-truly-65.html ) with predictive and simply historical contents respectively there are also some special cases of logically inconsistent statements in terms of their content. These are called self reference statements as discovered by the great British philosopher, Bertrand Russell. Although this is a very special case smart thinkers should also be aware of its existence to avoid getting into an illogical fallacy.
讓我們談談有關語言這種重要的溝通工具，希望藉機獲得一些深刻見解。除了以前提及的Ex-ante ( 前瞻句）和Ex-post (事後句），分別為預測性和歷史性的句語（ 在我這裡的部落格可重溫 http://jkhcforum.blogspot.com/2011/03/thoughts-to-you-from- yours-truly-65.html ）之外，也有些特殊句子，它們裡面是存在着一些邏輯上的謬誤，稱為self reference statement （自我參照句子），是偉大的英國哲學家，羅素（Bertrand Russell )所發現的。雖然它們只是極少數例子，但是作為一個有醒目思維的人，我們也應該認識到它們的性質和存在,以免墮入它們的邏輯謬誤中。
Take this question for example :- " This statement is wrong, true or false ? " If we say " true " then it would mean that the statement is wrong. On the other hand, if we say " false " it would mean that the statement is right. Either way, we end up with an illogical answer. The reason lies with the negative meaning of the word wrong and the positive and negative meanings of the other two words " true " and " false " respectively. Since the statement itself refers to nothing outside its own construction ( or some other fact apart from itself ) it is called a self reference statement. This will result in the combined effect of the word " wrong " ( a negative ) with the word " false " ( another negative ) to make the result positive ( implying the positive and opposite meaning of " right " ) - two negatives make a positive. If the other positive word " true " is applied then the resulting meaning will be of a negative meaning " wrong " ) - a negative and a positive makes a negative. This is interesting but shows that there exist inconsistencies in our language.
拿以下的問題為例:「這句子是錯的，是或否？」如果我們說是，那句子便是錯的了。反之，如果我們說否，那句子便是對的了。這樣一來，無論我們說是或否，都會產生邏輯上的謬誤。原 因在於那個錯字，是有負面的意思，而是與否兩者，卻分別帶着正面和負面的意思。由於這句子是自我參照句，即是說它只是針對自己，沒有涉及句子以外的事物。 這樣，如果我們說否，否字和錯字都是負面的意思，於是負負得正，便得到相反的正確那意思。假如我們說是字，這則有正面的意思，而錯字卻有負面意思，這樣一 來，正負便得負，所以句子便有錯的意思，這也正是其原本字面的意思。以上的情況，十分有趣，但比較罕見，卻證明了我們日常所用的語言，當中確是存在着一些 邏輯上的謬誤，切記為上策！
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 66 ) - April 1, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 66 ) - Specialized and Inter-Disciplinary Knowledge ( 專門和跨專業的學識 ) - April 1, 2011
Nowadays, being an expert in your own field is not enough as the modern world with its information explosion is bringing everyone and everything closer to one another. In my humble opinion, there are two main reasons for the emergence of this new trend. Firstly, human affairs are so complicated that a simple one to one relationship is no longer the rule. Interactive dialogue giving rise to multilateral exchanges culminating in feed back loops and more than a simple sum total of the inputs are now the rule rather than the exception. Secondly, the world wide web has given rise to the information technology revolution and the resultant information explosion that has allowed the instant sharing of all relevant information across various related disciplines which could be real time if so required. There is just no time to go home after work and think about a particular issue when confronted with one at the office.
在現今資訊爆炸的世界中，人與人，和事與事的距離，日益緊密，單只擁有專門學識是不足夠的。以在下的愚見，這是有兩大原因。其一是人與人之間的交往緊密 了，也比從前複雜多了。因此，形成了更多相向性的回響，一加一不只是等於二那麼簡單。其二是國際互聯網的出現，令至資訊互通，達到前所未有迅速和全面。必要時更可以即時資訊傳遞，立即令各有關方面獲得所需資料。這樣，專業人士便不能像從前一樣，等待回到家裏再慢慢地考慮問題，要當場和即時面對它們。
Under such encouraging or intimidating circumstances ( depending on how one looks at it ) every professional person or competent working individual is expected to know all the basic tenets of all other disciplines related to one's own area of responsibility. That is why for my own accountancy profession the basic requirements for becoming a professional accountant include a minimum university first degree to ensure that the candidates possess a general educational background. This was adopted over two decades ago. Similar general educational standards have been adopted by nearly all professional bodies regulating all the major professions such as medical practitioners, architect & engineers, lawyers and other financial and social professionals.
在這種令人鼓舞或令人害怕（ 視乎你從那個角度看）的情況下，每個專業人員，都得明白和認識其他有關專業的基本操作原則。正就是這原因，我的老本行，會計專業，早已在二十多年前，便要 求準會計師，必須擁有起碼的大學學士或相等的教育程度，以確保他們擁有廣泛和普及性的教育訓練，以應付作為會計師必備的專業技能和重任。類似的要求和條件，在其他主要專業，如醫生，建築師，工程師， 律師，社會專業人士和金融專業工作者等，都有同樣規定
The practical consequences of such an inter-disciplinary approach are far reaching. It enables most of the responsible members of society to adopt a wider perspective in their judgment as well as to realize their proper place in the whole structure of society. In short, such an approach allows each of us to know more clearly about where we stand in society. It prevents us from being imprisoned in the ivory tower of our own profession possibly resulting in a " holier than thou " view of all other members of society. This is definitely good for society as a whole. Smart thinkers and prospective professionals should always adopt this approach even when they are not at work. It would be even better if we could extend our general knowledge to other basic areas such as philosophy, history, politics and economics, etc. For old timers like yours truly, we have the undeniable responsibility to pass it on to our younger generations.
這些跨專業學識的規定，是有着很深遠影響的。這樣的安排，會令到每一位專業人員，擁有廣闊的視野和判斷力，以及令各人明瞭自己在社會上的正確方位。換言 之，擁有跨專業學識，使我們明白自己的社會崗位和責任。這安排會使我們，避免被鎖在各自專業的象牙塔中，而引至形成一種為我獨尊的自我態度。這趨勢對整個 社會，一定是一件好事。有醒目思維的人，以及專業工作者，有醒目思維的人，以及專業工作者，應經常採取這態度處事，不只限制在工作時應用。如果我們將跨專業學識領域，擴展到其他重要學科，如哲學，歷史，政治和經濟學上， 便更加有效力了。如在下這些老人家，更是有着不可推卸的責任，把這訊息推延到年輕的一代去。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Nowadays, being an expert in your own field is not enough as the modern world with its information explosion is bringing everyone and everything closer to one another. In my humble opinion, there are two main reasons for the emergence of this new trend. Firstly, human affairs are so complicated that a simple one to one relationship is no longer the rule. Interactive dialogue giving rise to multilateral exchanges culminating in feed back loops and more than a simple sum total of the inputs are now the rule rather than the exception. Secondly, the world wide web has given rise to the information technology revolution and the resultant information explosion that has allowed the instant sharing of all relevant information across various related disciplines which could be real time if so required. There is just no time to go home after work and think about a particular issue when confronted with one at the office.
在現今資訊爆炸的世界中，人與人，和事與事的距離，日益緊密，單只擁有專門學識是不足夠的。以在下的愚見，這是有兩大原因。其一是人與人之間的交往緊密 了，也比從前複雜多了。因此，形成了更多相向性的回響，一加一不只是等於二那麼簡單。其二是國際互聯網的出現，令至資訊互通，達到前所未有迅速和全面。必要時更可以即時資訊傳遞，立即令各有關方面獲得所需資料。這樣，專業人士便不能像從前一樣，等待回到家裏再慢慢地考慮問題，要當場和即時面對它們。
Under such encouraging or intimidating circumstances ( depending on how one looks at it ) every professional person or competent working individual is expected to know all the basic tenets of all other disciplines related to one's own area of responsibility. That is why for my own accountancy profession the basic requirements for becoming a professional accountant include a minimum university first degree to ensure that the candidates possess a general educational background. This was adopted over two decades ago. Similar general educational standards have been adopted by nearly all professional bodies regulating all the major professions such as medical practitioners, architect & engineers, lawyers and other financial and social professionals.
在這種令人鼓舞或令人害怕（ 視乎你從那個角度看）的情況下，每個專業人員，都得明白和認識其他有關專業的基本操作原則。正就是這原因，我的老本行，會計專業，早已在二十多年前，便要 求準會計師，必須擁有起碼的大學學士或相等的教育程度，以確保他們擁有廣泛和普及性的教育訓練，以應付作為會計師必備的專業技能和重任。類似的要求和條件，在其他主要專業，如醫生，建築師，工程師， 律師，社會專業人士和金融專業工作者等，都有同樣規定
The practical consequences of such an inter-disciplinary approach are far reaching. It enables most of the responsible members of society to adopt a wider perspective in their judgment as well as to realize their proper place in the whole structure of society. In short, such an approach allows each of us to know more clearly about where we stand in society. It prevents us from being imprisoned in the ivory tower of our own profession possibly resulting in a " holier than thou " view of all other members of society. This is definitely good for society as a whole. Smart thinkers and prospective professionals should always adopt this approach even when they are not at work. It would be even better if we could extend our general knowledge to other basic areas such as philosophy, history, politics and economics, etc. For old timers like yours truly, we have the undeniable responsibility to pass it on to our younger generations.
這些跨專業學識的規定，是有着很深遠影響的。這樣的安排，會令到每一位專業人員，擁有廣闊的視野和判斷力，以及令各人明瞭自己在社會上的正確方位。換言 之，擁有跨專業學識，使我們明白自己的社會崗位和責任。這安排會使我們，避免被鎖在各自專業的象牙塔中，而引至形成一種為我獨尊的自我態度。這趨勢對整個 社會，一定是一件好事。有醒目思維的人，以及專業工作者，有醒目思維的人，以及專業工作者，應經常採取這態度處事，不只限制在工作時應用。如果我們將跨專業學識領域，擴展到其他重要學科，如哲學，歷史，政治和經濟學上， 便更加有效力了。如在下這些老人家，更是有着不可推卸的責任，把這訊息推延到年輕的一代去。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 65 ) - March, 27, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 65 ) - Ex-ante and Ex-post Statements ( 前瞻句與事後句 ) - March 27, 2011
To think smart, we need to know what we are talking about. In terms of statement contents there are mainly two types of statements we can make. The contents may be predictive in nature which are known technically as Ex-ante statements or statement before the facts have occurred. Alternatively, the contents may be purely narrative or descriptive which are known technically as Ex-post statements or statements after the facts. It is of vital importance to distinguish the former from the latter. If we fail to do this we will most likely come to the wrong conclusion based on what we or other people say.
要有醒目的思維，我們先得了解，自己和他人講話的內容。以內容分類，句子可以主要分作前瞻句子和事後句子兩大類。第一種是有預測性的，叫作前瞻句 （ Ex-ante )，或是稱為事情未發生前的預料。第二種是事後的描述，叫作事後句 （ Ex-post )，或是稱為歷史性的描述。能分辨二者，是很重要的事。為因把它們混淆了，有可能會令我們達至錯誤的結論。
An example of an Ex-ante statement would be :- " I am going to work hard to pass my upcoming examination." Here, I am predicting some thing that is going to happen, namely, future hard work. On the other hand, if I say to my my wife that :- " It is destiny that has led to our chanced meeting and our happy marriage." Here, it is only a statement after the facts of our meeting and marriage. It is history so to speak. We usually have no problems with Ex-ante statements most of which we can easily understand. As regards Ex-post statements we may sometimes attribute to them predictive implications that they do not possess.
讓我舉一個前瞻句的例子，比如我說：「我會努力準備將會來臨的考試。」在這裡，我是預言某些事情的發生，即是說我將會用功。相反地，如果我對太太說：「 是命運安排，令我們相識和結婚。」在這裡，我只是指出這些既定的事實，只是歷史吧了，並無甚麼預測性的內容，這便是事後句子。我們通常很容易明白前瞻句 子，但是對事後句便會有疑難了。問題多出在，錯誤地給予事後句子，一些預測性的能力, 其實它們並沒有這些能耐。
Take my last statement to my wife about destiny for example, I have actually implied that destiny is a supernatural force that has caused us to meet and fall in love whereas it was our free will and personal choices that had caused our marriage to occur. Another example can be found in economics and other intellectual disciplines. When we say the demand for a certain commodity is elastic we are referring to the whole demand curve of that commodity reflecting quantities demanded at different prices when a more than proportional amount is demanded as that of the fall in price. It is an Ex-ante statement making a prediction on the behaviour of the quantities demanded at various prices. On the other hand, simply stating the quantity demanded at a certain price is an Ex-post statement which simply reflects a historic relation between the quantity demanded at a given price. It is history at a point in time. Please be smart thinkers and be able to distinguish between the two kinds of statements for clear thinking.
再次檢討我對太太說有關命運之言論，其實我是暗示了命運是有一種超自然力量，更加可以安排人的未來，當然這是不正確的，因為結婚是我們個人選擇，而相遇也 只是歷史事實。試想，在我們相遇的同一場合，也有其他人存在，為什麼又不說我們和他們有緣份呢？十分明確地，我們的個人選擇，決定了我們自己的將來。另外一個例子，可以在經濟學和其他類似學科尋找到。當我們說某種商品的需求是具有彈性的，這顯示商品被需求的數量增加，會比價格的跌幅比例為大。這是一種 前瞻句子，可以預測那商品在不同價格下，的不同被需求數量，是有預測性的。反之，我們如說，某一商品在某一價格的被需求數量是若干，這便是一種事後句子， 它只是一種歷史的描述。要有醒目的思維，我們必須把二者分辨出來，才可達到清晰的思考過程。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
To think smart, we need to know what we are talking about. In terms of statement contents there are mainly two types of statements we can make. The contents may be predictive in nature which are known technically as Ex-ante statements or statement before the facts have occurred. Alternatively, the contents may be purely narrative or descriptive which are known technically as Ex-post statements or statements after the facts. It is of vital importance to distinguish the former from the latter. If we fail to do this we will most likely come to the wrong conclusion based on what we or other people say.
要有醒目的思維，我們先得了解，自己和他人講話的內容。以內容分類，句子可以主要分作前瞻句子和事後句子兩大類。第一種是有預測性的，叫作前瞻句 （ Ex-ante )，或是稱為事情未發生前的預料。第二種是事後的描述，叫作事後句 （ Ex-post )，或是稱為歷史性的描述。能分辨二者，是很重要的事。為因把它們混淆了，有可能會令我們達至錯誤的結論。
An example of an Ex-ante statement would be :- " I am going to work hard to pass my upcoming examination." Here, I am predicting some thing that is going to happen, namely, future hard work. On the other hand, if I say to my my wife that :- " It is destiny that has led to our chanced meeting and our happy marriage." Here, it is only a statement after the facts of our meeting and marriage. It is history so to speak. We usually have no problems with Ex-ante statements most of which we can easily understand. As regards Ex-post statements we may sometimes attribute to them predictive implications that they do not possess.
讓我舉一個前瞻句的例子，比如我說：「我會努力準備將會來臨的考試。」在這裡，我是預言某些事情的發生，即是說我將會用功。相反地，如果我對太太說：「 是命運安排，令我們相識和結婚。」在這裡，我只是指出這些既定的事實，只是歷史吧了，並無甚麼預測性的內容，這便是事後句子。我們通常很容易明白前瞻句 子，但是對事後句便會有疑難了。問題多出在，錯誤地給予事後句子，一些預測性的能力, 其實它們並沒有這些能耐。
Take my last statement to my wife about destiny for example, I have actually implied that destiny is a supernatural force that has caused us to meet and fall in love whereas it was our free will and personal choices that had caused our marriage to occur. Another example can be found in economics and other intellectual disciplines. When we say the demand for a certain commodity is elastic we are referring to the whole demand curve of that commodity reflecting quantities demanded at different prices when a more than proportional amount is demanded as that of the fall in price. It is an Ex-ante statement making a prediction on the behaviour of the quantities demanded at various prices. On the other hand, simply stating the quantity demanded at a certain price is an Ex-post statement which simply reflects a historic relation between the quantity demanded at a given price. It is history at a point in time. Please be smart thinkers and be able to distinguish between the two kinds of statements for clear thinking.
再次檢討我對太太說有關命運之言論，其實我是暗示了命運是有一種超自然力量，更加可以安排人的未來，當然這是不正確的，因為結婚是我們個人選擇，而相遇也 只是歷史事實。試想，在我們相遇的同一場合，也有其他人存在，為什麼又不說我們和他們有緣份呢？十分明確地，我們的個人選擇，決定了我們自己的將來。另外一個例子，可以在經濟學和其他類似學科尋找到。當我們說某種商品的需求是具有彈性的，這顯示商品被需求的數量增加，會比價格的跌幅比例為大。這是一種 前瞻句子，可以預測那商品在不同價格下，的不同被需求數量，是有預測性的。反之，我們如說，某一商品在某一價格的被需求數量是若干，這便是一種事後句子， 它只是一種歷史的描述。要有醒目的思維，我們必須把二者分辨出來，才可達到清晰的思考過程。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 64 ) - March, 13, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 64 ) - Reductionist vs. Holistic Approach ( 歸納法和整體觀 ) - March 13, 2011
Behind all the monumental achievements of modern science and technology ( of course with the related threats to human lives and our environment as well ) there lies a very powerful tool in problem solving used since the birth of modern science in the Sixteenth Century at the times of Galileo, Newton and Descartes. This approach in problem solving is called the reductionist method whereby complicated things or problems are broken down into smaller individual parts. Then, we study how each small part works and put them back together again to understand the overall mode of operation. This method is so successful that most if not all scientists follow this method to the present day.
在我們現有空前成功的科技背面，是存在着一種十分強有力的工具。它便是起源於十六世紀，加里略，牛頓和狄格司等人那時代的，新科學紀元開始使用， 來解決問題的歸納法。這個方法，是將複雜的事物，化整為零，將每個小部分加以分析，了解它的操作情況，然後把它們整合起來，以確定整體的操作程式。由於這 方法極度成功，所以到了今天，絕大科學家都仍然樂於用它。
Then, the biological sciences including genetic and neuro sciences and most importantly the behavioural sciences come on the scene and scientists are greatly puzzled at the apparent failure of the reductionist approach to solve the important problems such as the causes of cancer and investor behaviour. Finally, some philosophers ( many of whom are scientists ) studying the working principles of the scientific method come up with an explanation. Among them the Nobel Laureate, Ilya Prigogine ( who is awarded the Nobel Prize for his profound discovery of complexity and the emergence of life ) discovers that in most bio-systems there are multi-feedback loops meaning individual factors in a system do not affect the system in one way traffic. The factors, in fact, interacts with one another in endless interactive-cycles to create endless ripple effects. In short, one plus one can be more than two. This is easily seen in the economy ( a social system ) as the " Multiplier Effect " that will give rise to vicious cycles making the end result much greater than the initial input such as an increase in consumer spending. To understand the multilateral interactions properly a holistic approach must be adopted. As opposed to the reductionist method, the holistic approach looks at the system as a whole to understand how the related parts interact with one another.
到了生物學和社會科學的面世，包括遺傳學, 神經系統研究，以及行為科學等更複雜的範疇要處理，歸納法便難以應付。科學家們感到十分困惑，為什麼這一向效的工具，不 能解釋有如投資者心態，以及癌症起因等問題呢。最後，一些科學上的哲學家，提出了答案。包括 諾貝爾獎得主柏力高堅( Ilya Prigogine )等人，提出了在複雜的生物學系統中，會出現很多相對互動的因素，影響不是單方面的，導致複雜和不可預料的結果，一加一是可以多於二的通常結果。 Prigogine 的得獎理論，是解釋生命是可能由複雜互動系統中演變出來的。生命的真正來源，到今天仍是神秘的謎。他的理論指出，相向互動的因素，會產生無止境的波浪效 應，互相影響，結果難測。就有如經濟學上的倍數效應( Multiplier Effect )，一些少量的消費可以造成大於原本數目的消費總和。要了解複雜的互動因素，我們必須以整體觀來分析這些因素，注意整體的效應，而不是個別因素的簡單總 和。
This is not new at all. It can be traced back some 5,000 years to the Chinese tradition and theories of the great philosophy book the famous I-Ching. We have heard so much about the great human genome project that has decoded the entire human genome of over 100,000 pairs of human genes. At first, scientists think we can proceed to discover all the genetic causes of all human diseases. Hold your horses because it is not that easy ! The reason is simple. While it has been discovered that the defects in certain genes are related to some diseases the combined effects of other genes have been found to counteract some defects to prevent occurrence of the related diseases. There is just no definite one to one relation. Therefore, the overall perspective has once again proven to be crucial.
整體觀並不是新概念，我們可以將它追索到五千年前中國的易經裡面。我們聽說很多有關人類基因的分析計劃， 科學家把整個人類的超過十萬對基因排列出來了。起初，科學家雀躍不已，認為可以很快尋找出，所有疾病的基因來源。可惜這只是空歡喜一場，因為事情並沒有這 般簡單。他們雖然尋找出一些基因與某些疾病的聯繫性，但他們亦發現有其他基因，會作出對抗性的均衡作用，抵消了這些壞基因的影響，甚而數個基因互相控制一些病 因。結論是，一對一的關係，並不存在。這一再證明整體觀的重要性。
For example, while western medicine is effective in dealing with emergency medical conditions by surgery and radiation treatment Chinese medicine is more suited to treating long term ailments like rheumatism through the strengthening of the immunity system by the use of herbal medicine and acupuncture. The former directly attacks the part of the body where the trouble appears while the latter takes a wider perspective or holistic approach of treating the whole immune system. Western and oriental medicines were once seen as mutually exclusive but nowadays both are adopting the strength of the other. Western medicine has used acupuncture as alternative medicine while Chinese medicine has also adopted the scientific approach of quantifying the potency of herbal medicine. That is a very good sign as there is no single golden rule that can cure everything. We should adopt the same attitude to become smart thinkers.
再拿一個例子來說，西方醫學對緊急醫學情況，是特別有效的。它可以用外科手術和放射性治療，對付癌症和緊急症狀，但對於長期疾病，如風濕等，便不及中醫的治本了，中醫以草藥和針灸，給予徹底醫理。西方醫學，對點治療，但比不上中醫的針對免疫系統，固本培源， 那般轍底。從 前，中西醫學是被視為兩不相容的。到了現在，西方醫學，已開始使用，針灸等中醫療法，稱之另類療法。中醫也進行中藥科學化，以確定它的準確藥力。這都是十 分令人鼓勵的發展。解決事情，沒有唯一的金科玉律，以適當的方法，處理合適的難題，不管它是歸納法或整體觀也好，適當地使用便行。這樣，我們便可擁有醒目 的思維了。
( Note : Please see my other blog entry about - " The Three World We Experience " here :- http://jkhcforum.blogspot.com/2011/03/thoughts-to-you-from-yours-truly-61.html )
（ 有關我們體驗的三個不同世界和適用的分析原則，請參考我這BLOG 部落格:- http://jkhcforum.blogspot.com/2011/03/thoughts-to-you-from-yours-truly-61.html )
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Behind all the monumental achievements of modern science and technology ( of course with the related threats to human lives and our environment as well ) there lies a very powerful tool in problem solving used since the birth of modern science in the Sixteenth Century at the times of Galileo, Newton and Descartes. This approach in problem solving is called the reductionist method whereby complicated things or problems are broken down into smaller individual parts. Then, we study how each small part works and put them back together again to understand the overall mode of operation. This method is so successful that most if not all scientists follow this method to the present day.
在我們現有空前成功的科技背面，是存在着一種十分強有力的工具。它便是起源於十六世紀，加里略，牛頓和狄格司等人那時代的，新科學紀元開始使用， 來解決問題的歸納法。這個方法，是將複雜的事物，化整為零，將每個小部分加以分析，了解它的操作情況，然後把它們整合起來，以確定整體的操作程式。由於這 方法極度成功，所以到了今天，絕大科學家都仍然樂於用它。
Then, the biological sciences including genetic and neuro sciences and most importantly the behavioural sciences come on the scene and scientists are greatly puzzled at the apparent failure of the reductionist approach to solve the important problems such as the causes of cancer and investor behaviour. Finally, some philosophers ( many of whom are scientists ) studying the working principles of the scientific method come up with an explanation. Among them the Nobel Laureate, Ilya Prigogine ( who is awarded the Nobel Prize for his profound discovery of complexity and the emergence of life ) discovers that in most bio-systems there are multi-feedback loops meaning individual factors in a system do not affect the system in one way traffic. The factors, in fact, interacts with one another in endless interactive-cycles to create endless ripple effects. In short, one plus one can be more than two. This is easily seen in the economy ( a social system ) as the " Multiplier Effect " that will give rise to vicious cycles making the end result much greater than the initial input such as an increase in consumer spending. To understand the multilateral interactions properly a holistic approach must be adopted. As opposed to the reductionist method, the holistic approach looks at the system as a whole to understand how the related parts interact with one another.
到了生物學和社會科學的面世，包括遺傳學, 神經系統研究，以及行為科學等更複雜的範疇要處理，歸納法便難以應付。科學家們感到十分困惑，為什麼這一向效的工具，不 能解釋有如投資者心態，以及癌症起因等問題呢。最後，一些科學上的哲學家，提出了答案。包括 諾貝爾獎得主柏力高堅( Ilya Prigogine )等人，提出了在複雜的生物學系統中，會出現很多相對互動的因素，影響不是單方面的，導致複雜和不可預料的結果，一加一是可以多於二的通常結果。 Prigogine 的得獎理論，是解釋生命是可能由複雜互動系統中演變出來的。生命的真正來源，到今天仍是神秘的謎。他的理論指出，相向互動的因素，會產生無止境的波浪效 應，互相影響，結果難測。就有如經濟學上的倍數效應( Multiplier Effect )，一些少量的消費可以造成大於原本數目的消費總和。要了解複雜的互動因素，我們必須以整體觀來分析這些因素，注意整體的效應，而不是個別因素的簡單總 和。
This is not new at all. It can be traced back some 5,000 years to the Chinese tradition and theories of the great philosophy book the famous I-Ching. We have heard so much about the great human genome project that has decoded the entire human genome of over 100,000 pairs of human genes. At first, scientists think we can proceed to discover all the genetic causes of all human diseases. Hold your horses because it is not that easy ! The reason is simple. While it has been discovered that the defects in certain genes are related to some diseases the combined effects of other genes have been found to counteract some defects to prevent occurrence of the related diseases. There is just no definite one to one relation. Therefore, the overall perspective has once again proven to be crucial.
整體觀並不是新概念，我們可以將它追索到五千年前中國的易經裡面。我們聽說很多有關人類基因的分析計劃， 科學家把整個人類的超過十萬對基因排列出來了。起初，科學家雀躍不已，認為可以很快尋找出，所有疾病的基因來源。可惜這只是空歡喜一場，因為事情並沒有這 般簡單。他們雖然尋找出一些基因與某些疾病的聯繫性，但他們亦發現有其他基因，會作出對抗性的均衡作用，抵消了這些壞基因的影響，甚而數個基因互相控制一些病 因。結論是，一對一的關係，並不存在。這一再證明整體觀的重要性。
For example, while western medicine is effective in dealing with emergency medical conditions by surgery and radiation treatment Chinese medicine is more suited to treating long term ailments like rheumatism through the strengthening of the immunity system by the use of herbal medicine and acupuncture. The former directly attacks the part of the body where the trouble appears while the latter takes a wider perspective or holistic approach of treating the whole immune system. Western and oriental medicines were once seen as mutually exclusive but nowadays both are adopting the strength of the other. Western medicine has used acupuncture as alternative medicine while Chinese medicine has also adopted the scientific approach of quantifying the potency of herbal medicine. That is a very good sign as there is no single golden rule that can cure everything. We should adopt the same attitude to become smart thinkers.
再拿一個例子來說，西方醫學對緊急醫學情況，是特別有效的。它可以用外科手術和放射性治療，對付癌症和緊急症狀，但對於長期疾病，如風濕等，便不及中醫的治本了，中醫以草藥和針灸，給予徹底醫理。西方醫學，對點治療，但比不上中醫的針對免疫系統，固本培源， 那般轍底。從 前，中西醫學是被視為兩不相容的。到了現在，西方醫學，已開始使用，針灸等中醫療法，稱之另類療法。中醫也進行中藥科學化，以確定它的準確藥力。這都是十 分令人鼓勵的發展。解決事情，沒有唯一的金科玉律，以適當的方法，處理合適的難題，不管它是歸納法或整體觀也好，適當地使用便行。這樣，我們便可擁有醒目 的思維了。
( Note : Please see my other blog entry about - " The Three World We Experience " here :- http://jkhcforum.blogspot.com/2011/03/thoughts-to-you-from-yours-truly-61.html )
（ 有關我們體驗的三個不同世界和適用的分析原則，請參考我這BLOG 部落格:- http://jkhcforum.blogspot.com/2011/03/thoughts-to-you-from-yours-truly-61.html )
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 63 ) - March, 9, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 63 ) - Confronting this Chaotic World ( 面對這紊亂的世界 ) - March 9, 2011
I don't blame you if you are totally lost and confused in this chaotic world. All the world's troubles seem to have started at the 911 tragedy in 2001 in Manhattan, New York City. In fact, the chaos started long ago at different times for different people when we fail to find our goal in life and thus losing our orientation.
假若你已經被這個紊亂的世界，弄得迷惘和失落了，我絕不會責備你。這世界上所有的麻煩，都像是從2001年美國紐約曼哈頓的911慘劇開始的。其實，對每 一個人來說，煩惱是在不同的時間開始的。但都擁有一個共通點，就是這開始都是始源於沒法尋找到自己的人生目標那一刻。這樣一來，我們便迷失了方向。
When mariners embark on a seafaring trip the first thing they do is to bring out their sea charts and plot their course. Obviously, you cannot chart your course without a destination. So why is it that many people do not have their own goal in life when they navigate this most important and treacherous journey of all. Certainly, we will end up lost in life if we do not have a clear goal or destination. This is a great pity because we have only a single attempt in leading a meaningful life. So, why not make the best of it.
當航海者要開始一段旅程時，他們第一件要做的事，就是拿出他們的航海圖， 然後計劃出一條航線來。假若你沒有一個目的地，你又怎樣可以畫出一條航線呢。既然是這樣，為什麼有些人卻沒有人生目標，又如何可以安全和完滿地，航行這段 最重要又最崎嶇的人生路程呢。沒有人生目標的後果，必定是迷途與失落了。這是一件十分可惜的事情，因為我們只有一個機會，去活一個有意義的人生，錯過了良 機，無法可再度挽回。那麼我們為何不好好地去珍惜和把握，這個可一而不可再的機會。
The sixty-four dollar question is, of course, how to find our goal in life ? Well, it is a highly personal quest. To learn about reality which consists of the physical world, our own mental world and the interactive world with other people we call society seems to be a good start. Once you are fairly well informed about reality then you must find your proper place in it with respect to your own talents. Based on your talents and abilities you will be able to set a clear goal in life that will make a better world for tomorrow both for yourself and others. A good start is half way to success. Persevere in the pursuit of your goal with a dedicated mind and a compassionate heart as all living things are born out of the same humble beginning as star dust ( see my blog post here :- http://jkhcforum.blogspot.com/2010/11/thoughts-to-you-from-yours-truly-48.html ).
話得說回來，重要問題是如何尋找自己的人生目標呢？這是個極度個人的問題。但似乎一個好的開始， 是去了解這個現實世界。現實包含了三個層面，就是實際的物質世界，我們的內心思想世界，以及與別人交往的社會。當你對現實有了相當的認識後，你必須根據你 的天份，尋找到你的正確位置。然後你才可以開始尋找，一個會令世界更美好，而又可利己利人， 相得益彰的人生目標，這便是個好開始。一個好開始便是成功的一半了。堅持你的原則，努力不懈地向着目標，勇往直前。更加要以憐憫之心對待他人，因為眾生皆 由星塵而來 （ 請參考我的BLOG 部落格 http://jkhcforum.blogspot.com/2010/11/thoughts-to-you-from-yours-truly-48.html )。
When you are down be patient and increase your own value by learning more skill and knowledge. When you are successful be humble and keep working hard for your goal. Most important of all, be human and keep a balanced perspective to avoid falling victim to extremism both behaviorally and verbally. No man or woman is an island. Therefore, we must not be ashamed to talk to other people about our troubles and ask for help. Having done all of the above you will never be too far from leading a meaningful life. This is how success in life should be measured not by comparison with others but by gauging against your own set goals as everyone is different in background. To do the former is just as meaningless as comparing oranges with apples. In conclusion, the best way to confront this chaotic world is to stick to your guns which are your principles and your own goal in life. Good luck to you all in your quest for your own goals in life !
當你倒運時要忍耐振作，吸收更多知識與技能加以增值。當你成功時，要謙卑和加配努力。最重要的是，以中庸之道處理事情，避免以極端態度行事，言論和行為上 也要平和，這才是成功之道。沒有人是能夠永遠不求他人幫助的。所以應該不恥下問，有煩惱要尋求別人幫助。懂得以上道理，你已離開有意義人生不遠了。要量度 人生的成功與失敗，唯一的合理標準，便是以個人的既定人生目標作準。與別人比較，全無意義，因為人人背景不一樣，有如以蘋果和橙子相比一般。總而然之，要有效和成功地面對這紊亂的世界，我們必須有自己的鮮明人生目標，然後堅守原則，以中庸之道處世做人，便可活一個有意義的人生了。祝福各位，在追尋自己人生目標的路途上，一切順利如意。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
I don't blame you if you are totally lost and confused in this chaotic world. All the world's troubles seem to have started at the 911 tragedy in 2001 in Manhattan, New York City. In fact, the chaos started long ago at different times for different people when we fail to find our goal in life and thus losing our orientation.
假若你已經被這個紊亂的世界，弄得迷惘和失落了，我絕不會責備你。這世界上所有的麻煩，都像是從2001年美國紐約曼哈頓的911慘劇開始的。其實，對每 一個人來說，煩惱是在不同的時間開始的。但都擁有一個共通點，就是這開始都是始源於沒法尋找到自己的人生目標那一刻。這樣一來，我們便迷失了方向。
When mariners embark on a seafaring trip the first thing they do is to bring out their sea charts and plot their course. Obviously, you cannot chart your course without a destination. So why is it that many people do not have their own goal in life when they navigate this most important and treacherous journey of all. Certainly, we will end up lost in life if we do not have a clear goal or destination. This is a great pity because we have only a single attempt in leading a meaningful life. So, why not make the best of it.
當航海者要開始一段旅程時，他們第一件要做的事，就是拿出他們的航海圖， 然後計劃出一條航線來。假若你沒有一個目的地，你又怎樣可以畫出一條航線呢。既然是這樣，為什麼有些人卻沒有人生目標，又如何可以安全和完滿地，航行這段 最重要又最崎嶇的人生路程呢。沒有人生目標的後果，必定是迷途與失落了。這是一件十分可惜的事情，因為我們只有一個機會，去活一個有意義的人生，錯過了良 機，無法可再度挽回。那麼我們為何不好好地去珍惜和把握，這個可一而不可再的機會。
The sixty-four dollar question is, of course, how to find our goal in life ? Well, it is a highly personal quest. To learn about reality which consists of the physical world, our own mental world and the interactive world with other people we call society seems to be a good start. Once you are fairly well informed about reality then you must find your proper place in it with respect to your own talents. Based on your talents and abilities you will be able to set a clear goal in life that will make a better world for tomorrow both for yourself and others. A good start is half way to success. Persevere in the pursuit of your goal with a dedicated mind and a compassionate heart as all living things are born out of the same humble beginning as star dust ( see my blog post here :- http://jkhcforum.blogspot.com/2010/11/thoughts-to-you-from-yours-truly-48.html ).
話得說回來，重要問題是如何尋找自己的人生目標呢？這是個極度個人的問題。但似乎一個好的開始， 是去了解這個現實世界。現實包含了三個層面，就是實際的物質世界，我們的內心思想世界，以及與別人交往的社會。當你對現實有了相當的認識後，你必須根據你 的天份，尋找到你的正確位置。然後你才可以開始尋找，一個會令世界更美好，而又可利己利人， 相得益彰的人生目標，這便是個好開始。一個好開始便是成功的一半了。堅持你的原則，努力不懈地向着目標，勇往直前。更加要以憐憫之心對待他人，因為眾生皆 由星塵而來 （ 請參考我的BLOG 部落格 http://jkhcforum.blogspot.com/2010/11/thoughts-to-you-from-yours-truly-48.html )。
When you are down be patient and increase your own value by learning more skill and knowledge. When you are successful be humble and keep working hard for your goal. Most important of all, be human and keep a balanced perspective to avoid falling victim to extremism both behaviorally and verbally. No man or woman is an island. Therefore, we must not be ashamed to talk to other people about our troubles and ask for help. Having done all of the above you will never be too far from leading a meaningful life. This is how success in life should be measured not by comparison with others but by gauging against your own set goals as everyone is different in background. To do the former is just as meaningless as comparing oranges with apples. In conclusion, the best way to confront this chaotic world is to stick to your guns which are your principles and your own goal in life. Good luck to you all in your quest for your own goals in life !
當你倒運時要忍耐振作，吸收更多知識與技能加以增值。當你成功時，要謙卑和加配努力。最重要的是，以中庸之道處理事情，避免以極端態度行事，言論和行為上 也要平和，這才是成功之道。沒有人是能夠永遠不求他人幫助的。所以應該不恥下問，有煩惱要尋求別人幫助。懂得以上道理，你已離開有意義人生不遠了。要量度 人生的成功與失敗，唯一的合理標準，便是以個人的既定人生目標作準。與別人比較，全無意義，因為人人背景不一樣，有如以蘋果和橙子相比一般。總而然之，要有效和成功地面對這紊亂的世界，我們必須有自己的鮮明人生目標，然後堅守原則，以中庸之道處世做人，便可活一個有意義的人生了。祝福各位，在追尋自己人生目標的路途上，一切順利如意。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Friday, March 4, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 62 ) - March, 5, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 62 ) - Necessary, Sufficient & Final Conditions ( 必須，足夠和最後條件 ) - March 5, 2011
To achieve anything there are prerequisites or preconditions to be met before success can be assured. Formal logic calls these necessary and sufficient conditions. We encounter these on a daily basis without consciously acknowledging them. They are sometimes incorrectly or inappropriately used by us in our reasoning process. While both necessary and sufficient conditions are normally present to ensure success the existence of just the sufficient condition alone will also serve the purpose. On the other hand, the presence of only the necessary condition without a sufficient one is not good enough to achieve success on its own.
要一件事肯定成功，通常需要一些先決條件。正規邏輯叫這些條件為必須和足夠條件。我們在日常都隨時遇見它們，但多數只是潛意識地接受了其存在。甚至有時會 錯誤地使用了它們。通常要一件事成功，兩種條件都要具備，但只要單一的足夠條件存在，事情也可以成功的。相反來說，單有必須條件，事情便不一定會成事了。
For example, we usually praise successful people in business by complimenting them on their hard work. So much so that we simply conclude that the sole reason for their success is their diligence. However, hard work alone is not enough to ensure success as can be seen from the fact that there are many hard working but poor people. Thus, we say that hard work is only a necessary condition for success but the sufficient condition is a prevailing favourable economic condition in society at the right time or simply luck. We must distinguish between necessary and sufficient conditions in order to avoid falling victim to wrong reasoning. Never treat a necessary condition as if it were a sufficient condition or vice versa.
比例說，我們經常稱讚事業成功人士，多是努力的成果。其實，單靠努力是不足夠的。因為我們可以看見，有很多勤力但卻貧窮的人。因此，我們說勤勞只是成功的必須條件，要有一個良好的經濟環境，才可以做就成功的。由此可見，一些運氣是不可少的。我們應該小心分辨必須和足夠條件，以免犯了思維上的錯誤。
Furthermore, the necessary condition can be dispensed with on the path to success so long as the sufficient condition is present. For example, it is necessary to work hard to become rich but if you have luck ( such as having rich parents ) which is the sufficient condition you can still be rich without working hard although it is rare. Finally, there is always a slight chance for things to go wrong even in a given favourable environment. For example, you have thoroughly prepared for an examination and all goes well on your way to the examination hall. Most unfortunately, you suddenly develop stomach trouble which adversely affects your examination performance. This is the famous Uncertainty Principle in quantum mechanics which usually affects entities of subatomic size but in rare cases it can also manifest itself in the macro world especially in the form of weird accidents. We call this Murphy's Law which says that everything that can go wrong will go wrong. This is a pessimistic or cautious view of the world depending on how you look at it. Therefore, yours truly have added an extra condition to the generally accepted necessary and sufficient conditions for success and call it the Final Condition ( or technically called the absence of unfavourable quantum disposition ). Let us all be smart thinkers.
除此之外，我們應理解到，在往成功的路上，只要有足夠條件，便可把必須條件，置之不理。拿個例子， 你必須努力才可富有，但是如果你幸運，有富有的父母，你便擁有足夠條件，不用努力也自然成為富翁了。這當然是比較罕見的事。最後，就算在一個十分良好的環境下，仍然會出亂子的。比如，你十分充分地準備了應付考試，往試場途中一切順利，十分不幸地，你在考 試過程中拉肚子，大大影響了你的表現。這種情況，就是著名的量子力學上所謂無常原則（ Uncertainty Principle ), 通常只會影響小於原子大小的事物，但間中也會發生於相對較大的事物，多數會在古怪的意外中觀察得到。這些不幸事情，我們亦稱之為梅菲定律（ Murphy's Law ），它是說:「 一切最壞的情況，都會不幸地成為現實。」這是對現實的一種悲觀或小心的看法。因此，在下便稱之為最後條件 （ 或叫作良好的量子力學條件 ）。將它加於必須和足夠條件之上，以令我們的分析和預測能力加強。這樣會使我們有更醒目的思維。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
To achieve anything there are prerequisites or preconditions to be met before success can be assured. Formal logic calls these necessary and sufficient conditions. We encounter these on a daily basis without consciously acknowledging them. They are sometimes incorrectly or inappropriately used by us in our reasoning process. While both necessary and sufficient conditions are normally present to ensure success the existence of just the sufficient condition alone will also serve the purpose. On the other hand, the presence of only the necessary condition without a sufficient one is not good enough to achieve success on its own.
要一件事肯定成功，通常需要一些先決條件。正規邏輯叫這些條件為必須和足夠條件。我們在日常都隨時遇見它們，但多數只是潛意識地接受了其存在。甚至有時會 錯誤地使用了它們。通常要一件事成功，兩種條件都要具備，但只要單一的足夠條件存在，事情也可以成功的。相反來說，單有必須條件，事情便不一定會成事了。
For example, we usually praise successful people in business by complimenting them on their hard work. So much so that we simply conclude that the sole reason for their success is their diligence. However, hard work alone is not enough to ensure success as can be seen from the fact that there are many hard working but poor people. Thus, we say that hard work is only a necessary condition for success but the sufficient condition is a prevailing favourable economic condition in society at the right time or simply luck. We must distinguish between necessary and sufficient conditions in order to avoid falling victim to wrong reasoning. Never treat a necessary condition as if it were a sufficient condition or vice versa.
比例說，我們經常稱讚事業成功人士，多是努力的成果。其實，單靠努力是不足夠的。因為我們可以看見，有很多勤力但卻貧窮的人。因此，我們說勤勞只是成功的必須條件，要有一個良好的經濟環境，才可以做就成功的。由此可見，一些運氣是不可少的。我們應該小心分辨必須和足夠條件，以免犯了思維上的錯誤。
Furthermore, the necessary condition can be dispensed with on the path to success so long as the sufficient condition is present. For example, it is necessary to work hard to become rich but if you have luck ( such as having rich parents ) which is the sufficient condition you can still be rich without working hard although it is rare. Finally, there is always a slight chance for things to go wrong even in a given favourable environment. For example, you have thoroughly prepared for an examination and all goes well on your way to the examination hall. Most unfortunately, you suddenly develop stomach trouble which adversely affects your examination performance. This is the famous Uncertainty Principle in quantum mechanics which usually affects entities of subatomic size but in rare cases it can also manifest itself in the macro world especially in the form of weird accidents. We call this Murphy's Law which says that everything that can go wrong will go wrong. This is a pessimistic or cautious view of the world depending on how you look at it. Therefore, yours truly have added an extra condition to the generally accepted necessary and sufficient conditions for success and call it the Final Condition ( or technically called the absence of unfavourable quantum disposition ). Let us all be smart thinkers.
除此之外，我們應理解到，在往成功的路上，只要有足夠條件，便可把必須條件，置之不理。拿個例子， 你必須努力才可富有，但是如果你幸運，有富有的父母，你便擁有足夠條件，不用努力也自然成為富翁了。這當然是比較罕見的事。最後，就算在一個十分良好的環境下，仍然會出亂子的。比如，你十分充分地準備了應付考試，往試場途中一切順利，十分不幸地，你在考 試過程中拉肚子，大大影響了你的表現。這種情況，就是著名的量子力學上所謂無常原則（ Uncertainty Principle ), 通常只會影響小於原子大小的事物，但間中也會發生於相對較大的事物，多數會在古怪的意外中觀察得到。這些不幸事情，我們亦稱之為梅菲定律（ Murphy's Law ），它是說:「 一切最壞的情況，都會不幸地成為現實。」這是對現實的一種悲觀或小心的看法。因此，在下便稱之為最後條件 （ 或叫作良好的量子力學條件 ）。將它加於必須和足夠條件之上，以令我們的分析和預測能力加強。這樣會使我們有更醒目的思維。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 61 ) - March, 2, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 61 ) - The Three Worlds We Experience ( 我們體驗的三個世界 ) - March, 2, 2011
In his giant book of some 1,200 pages called " The Road to Reality - A Complete Guide to the Laws of the Universe ", famous Oxford theoretical and mathematical physicist Sir Roger Penrose made an observation that we actually live in three worlds all linked together through our consciousness. These three worlds are the " physical world " which obeys the invariant scientific laws of nature ; our complicated " mental world " of thoughts and ideas which follows complex rules and the perfect world of mathematics which follows pure logic and can very aptly describe our physical world. Furthermore, it seems that the physical world is governed or controlled by the mathematical world through mathematical rules. In turn, the mathematical world seems to be created or invented by our own mentality whereas our mental world is again governed by the invariant laws of nature of the physical world via our physiology such as our brain and other biological systems ( nervous, respiratory, digestive, circulatory systems, etc. )
著名的英國數學物理學家潘路斯爵士， 在他的一千二百頁巨著，「往現實的路」一書中，觀察到我們實際上是活在三個不同的世界中。而且這三者又由我們的意識連貫起來。這 三個世界便是，由不變易的大自然定律所控制的實際世界，神秘 錯綜複雜的思想世界，和由純邏輯主宰的完美數學世界組成。最後者更加能巧妙地和合適地描述現實的自然世界。除此之外，作者更發現到現實世界是由數學世界的 規則控制的。而數學世界卻由我們的思想世界所發明和操縱。繼之，我們的思想世界又由現實自然世界的系統 （ 如神經，消化，呼吸和循環等系統）所支配的。這就完成了數學規則控制實際自然世界操作。實際世界通過生理系統啟動我們的思想世界。我們的思想進一步創造和 發現數學規則，構成這一個單向的大循環了。
To be aware of which world we are dealing with is important insofar as we must apply the appropriate rules ( i.e. invariant scientific laws for the physical world, complex chaotic rules for our mental world and pure logic for the mathematical world ) to achieve maximum understanding and top efficiency in terms of our efforts and relative disposition.
要明白我們正在處理那個世界的問題，這是重要的事。因為不同的世界是服從不同的規則的，所以要把它們分辨出來，才可明白如何處理。實際世界要用不變易的科學定律，思想世界要用複雜的心理規條，而數學世界則要用純邏輯思維處理，便事半功倍了。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
In his giant book of some 1,200 pages called " The Road to Reality - A Complete Guide to the Laws of the Universe ", famous Oxford theoretical and mathematical physicist Sir Roger Penrose made an observation that we actually live in three worlds all linked together through our consciousness. These three worlds are the " physical world " which obeys the invariant scientific laws of nature ; our complicated " mental world " of thoughts and ideas which follows complex rules and the perfect world of mathematics which follows pure logic and can very aptly describe our physical world. Furthermore, it seems that the physical world is governed or controlled by the mathematical world through mathematical rules. In turn, the mathematical world seems to be created or invented by our own mentality whereas our mental world is again governed by the invariant laws of nature of the physical world via our physiology such as our brain and other biological systems ( nervous, respiratory, digestive, circulatory systems, etc. )
著名的英國數學物理學家潘路斯爵士， 在他的一千二百頁巨著，「往現實的路」一書中，觀察到我們實際上是活在三個不同的世界中。而且這三者又由我們的意識連貫起來。這 三個世界便是，由不變易的大自然定律所控制的實際世界，神秘 錯綜複雜的思想世界，和由純邏輯主宰的完美數學世界組成。最後者更加能巧妙地和合適地描述現實的自然世界。除此之外，作者更發現到現實世界是由數學世界的 規則控制的。而數學世界卻由我們的思想世界所發明和操縱。繼之，我們的思想世界又由現實自然世界的系統 （ 如神經，消化，呼吸和循環等系統）所支配的。這就完成了數學規則控制實際自然世界操作。實際世界通過生理系統啟動我們的思想世界。我們的思想進一步創造和 發現數學規則，構成這一個單向的大循環了。
To be aware of which world we are dealing with is important insofar as we must apply the appropriate rules ( i.e. invariant scientific laws for the physical world, complex chaotic rules for our mental world and pure logic for the mathematical world ) to achieve maximum understanding and top efficiency in terms of our efforts and relative disposition.
要明白我們正在處理那個世界的問題，這是重要的事。因為不同的世界是服從不同的規則的，所以要把它們分辨出來，才可明白如何處理。實際世界要用不變易的科學定律，思想世界要用複雜的心理規條，而數學世界則要用純邏輯思維處理，便事半功倍了。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Monday, February 28, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 60 ) - March, 1, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 60 ) - Language, Truth & Logic ( 語言，真理與邏輯 ) - March, 1, 2011
The brilliant British philosopher Sir Alfred J. Ayer ( who advocates logical positivism ) once created a very simple approach to classifying the nature of all our statements into just two main categories. The first type concerns " expression of ideas " that do not relate to our real life experience. These are called " analytical statements ". They deal with logic ( including mathematical logic ) and rationale and, therefore, concern " relations of ideas " that are abstracted from the real world. The second type concerns " matters of fact " which Ayer called " empirical statements ". The latter type can be proved or disproved through our observational evidence. For example, the statement - the sun rises in the east - is an empirical statement. On the other hand, the statement - one plus one equals two - is an analytical statement that can only be proven right or wrong through logic ( in this case, mathematical logic ) but not through empirical facts. One further word of caution on " analytical statements " must be mentioned here. The basic assumptions behind " analytical statements " must be known before we can decide on their validity. In the last example, we have already implied that we are using the normal scale of 10 as our basis because if we were using the binary ( 2 ) scale one plus one will equal 10.
超卓的英國哲學家A.J. Ayer ( 埃雅 ），曾開創先河， 把我們所有言論，分為兩大類。第一類是有關主意和概念的言論，他稱之為純分析性的言論，是與現實無直接關係的， 只關乎邏輯和推理，是主意與概念之間的關係。第二類，是關乎現實的言論，他稱之為關乎事實的言論。這類言論可以用事實去證明其真偽。例如，太陽是從東方升起的。相反，一加一等於二，這是純分析性的言論，只可從邏輯 （ 數學邏輯 ）和推理證明其真偽。在這裡，我必須指出一點，有關純分析性的言論，我們要先弄清楚相關的明顯或背面的假定，才可正確判斷其真偽。以上述為例，我們已暗示使用十進制度，假若是二進制，一加一便等於十了。
Very often, we argue on crossed purposes because we fail to distinguish between the two types of statements thus applying the wrong reasoning method. Also, we may not have defined the terms we use properly or their underlying or implicit assumptions for that matter. The simple guide lines to avoid mixed up thinking or unnecessary arguments are two fold. Firstly, distinguish between the two types of statement. Secondly, apply the correct method of verifying them. That is to say applying the relevant facts to verify the truth or falsehood of " empirical statements " while applying the relevant logic to " analytical statements " after ascertaining all explicit and implicit assumptions. This will make us smart thinkers and a modern global citizen.
我們經常被捲入一些不必要的爭辯，多數是因為不能分辨二者，所以可能用了錯誤的分析方法。也許我們未清楚說明所用名詞或暗示式假設，引起無謂之爭論。其實 運用些簡單指引，便可化解問題。這些指引分為兩個層次，第一是把兩種言論分辨出來。第二是用相關的分析方法證明其真偽。前者用事實加以驗證，後者便用相關 邏輯推理，以定真假。這樣，我們便可以擁有醒目的思維，配為一個現代世界公民。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
The brilliant British philosopher Sir Alfred J. Ayer ( who advocates logical positivism ) once created a very simple approach to classifying the nature of all our statements into just two main categories. The first type concerns " expression of ideas " that do not relate to our real life experience. These are called " analytical statements ". They deal with logic ( including mathematical logic ) and rationale and, therefore, concern " relations of ideas " that are abstracted from the real world. The second type concerns " matters of fact " which Ayer called " empirical statements ". The latter type can be proved or disproved through our observational evidence. For example, the statement - the sun rises in the east - is an empirical statement. On the other hand, the statement - one plus one equals two - is an analytical statement that can only be proven right or wrong through logic ( in this case, mathematical logic ) but not through empirical facts. One further word of caution on " analytical statements " must be mentioned here. The basic assumptions behind " analytical statements " must be known before we can decide on their validity. In the last example, we have already implied that we are using the normal scale of 10 as our basis because if we were using the binary ( 2 ) scale one plus one will equal 10.
超卓的英國哲學家A.J. Ayer ( 埃雅 ），曾開創先河， 把我們所有言論，分為兩大類。第一類是有關主意和概念的言論，他稱之為純分析性的言論，是與現實無直接關係的， 只關乎邏輯和推理，是主意與概念之間的關係。第二類，是關乎現實的言論，他稱之為關乎事實的言論。這類言論可以用事實去證明其真偽。例如，太陽是從東方升起的。相反，一加一等於二，這是純分析性的言論，只可從邏輯 （ 數學邏輯 ）和推理證明其真偽。在這裡，我必須指出一點，有關純分析性的言論，我們要先弄清楚相關的明顯或背面的假定，才可正確判斷其真偽。以上述為例，我們已暗示使用十進制度，假若是二進制，一加一便等於十了。
Very often, we argue on crossed purposes because we fail to distinguish between the two types of statements thus applying the wrong reasoning method. Also, we may not have defined the terms we use properly or their underlying or implicit assumptions for that matter. The simple guide lines to avoid mixed up thinking or unnecessary arguments are two fold. Firstly, distinguish between the two types of statement. Secondly, apply the correct method of verifying them. That is to say applying the relevant facts to verify the truth or falsehood of " empirical statements " while applying the relevant logic to " analytical statements " after ascertaining all explicit and implicit assumptions. This will make us smart thinkers and a modern global citizen.
我們經常被捲入一些不必要的爭辯，多數是因為不能分辨二者，所以可能用了錯誤的分析方法。也許我們未清楚說明所用名詞或暗示式假設，引起無謂之爭論。其實 運用些簡單指引，便可化解問題。這些指引分為兩個層次，第一是把兩種言論分辨出來。第二是用相關的分析方法證明其真偽。前者用事實加以驗證，後者便用相關 邏輯推理，以定真假。這樣，我們便可以擁有醒目的思維，配為一個現代世界公民。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 59 ) - Feb., 27, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 59 ) - Static and Dynamic Thinking ( 靜態和動態思維 ) - Feb., 27, 2011
Analyzing facts and figures is part and parcel of our daily thinking process. To think smart which is a prerequisite for a modern global citizen we must know something about these two terms. Static means seeing the facts as they stand and dynamic means anticipating the impact of related factors on those facts. Also, static implies seeing the situation as a picture at a single moment while dynamic requires the realizing the relevant trend by projecting into the future. Most of our daily analysis proves to be less effective in terms of predictive power and efficiency because they are static rather than dynamic.
分析事實和統計數據，是我們日常思考的一部分。作為現代世界世公民，我們必須擁有醒目的思維，如要這樣，我們需要了解靜態和動態的思維的分別。靜態是表示 以事實的表面意義和單方面加以分析， 動態思維就是考慮和預計其他相關因素在內。再者，靜態亦表示只看某一定點時間的情形，動態卻要估計和預測將來走勢及動向，作全面評估。我們通常對事物的分 析，多缺乏可靠和準確預測，主要是因為它們多是靜態的分析和考慮。
All statistics are by nature historical facts. Reliance on history normally gives a fair prediction of future events if and only if past circumstances hold true till the projected future point in time. Furthermore, statistics are not precise description of reality. Take this for example, an average middle aged American as the statistics say has an average annual income of US$65,000, 2.5 cars and 1.2 children. Obviously, no one can have 2.5 cars and 1.2 children. Therefore, blindly using statistics will reduce us to mechanical robots.
所有統計數據，都是歷史塵蹟。倚賴它們去預測未來，必須有賴於舊事或過往因素的有效性，才有機會作出正確的預測和分析。例如，統計數字顯示，一個普通的美 國中年人，平均年薪為＄65000美元，擁有2.5部汽車和1.2個子女。明顯地，沒有人會能擁有2.5部汽車和1.2個子女的。明顯地，沒有人會可能擁有 2.5部汽車和1.2個子女的。盲目地跟隨數字，只會令人變成機械人，不能變通。
To give you a more tangible example of dynamic analysis or planning, I will cite my own experience in my past voluntary work in China. During 2002 or thereabout my friends and I operated some sort of cooperative arrangement in northern Guangdong besides teaching the children English. We donated some money to set up a fund to make $1,000 interest free loans to farmers to raise chickens to supplement their income. They must repay the loan within a fixed period and the fund will continue to assist other farmers in the same way. Statistics show that the majority are self sufficient in food but so short of cash that their children cannot afford to pay for bus fares to attend classes. Many have to walk 4 hours on a round trip to and from school daily. Rather than handing out charity which is a passive and static way of assistance we decided to take a more dynamic approach to invite their participation in their own financial assistance. This will also give them the dignity of self help as well. So, everyone is happy and proud. Therefore, it is always wiser to think in a dynamic rather than a static manner.
再次以一個確實的例子和本人的體驗，以作說明。在2002年間，我和朋友在中國廣東北部山區，進行一些志願教育工作，給貧困學生教授英文，其間也做些扶貧 工作。照數據顯示，多數農民衣食自足，但現金短缺，引至學童要每天花四小時步行上學。我們便捐款成立基金，貸款為數$1000, 給與貧窮戶，作為養雞幫助家計，並定時償還，再次幫助其他人，令他們自力更生。這樣一來，我們便不只被動和消極地施捨他人，更加顧及他們的自尊，皆大歡 喜。這便是考慮其他因素和效益，動態的思維和分析了。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Analyzing facts and figures is part and parcel of our daily thinking process. To think smart which is a prerequisite for a modern global citizen we must know something about these two terms. Static means seeing the facts as they stand and dynamic means anticipating the impact of related factors on those facts. Also, static implies seeing the situation as a picture at a single moment while dynamic requires the realizing the relevant trend by projecting into the future. Most of our daily analysis proves to be less effective in terms of predictive power and efficiency because they are static rather than dynamic.
分析事實和統計數據，是我們日常思考的一部分。作為現代世界世公民，我們必須擁有醒目的思維，如要這樣，我們需要了解靜態和動態的思維的分別。靜態是表示 以事實的表面意義和單方面加以分析， 動態思維就是考慮和預計其他相關因素在內。再者，靜態亦表示只看某一定點時間的情形，動態卻要估計和預測將來走勢及動向，作全面評估。我們通常對事物的分 析，多缺乏可靠和準確預測，主要是因為它們多是靜態的分析和考慮。
All statistics are by nature historical facts. Reliance on history normally gives a fair prediction of future events if and only if past circumstances hold true till the projected future point in time. Furthermore, statistics are not precise description of reality. Take this for example, an average middle aged American as the statistics say has an average annual income of US$65,000, 2.5 cars and 1.2 children. Obviously, no one can have 2.5 cars and 1.2 children. Therefore, blindly using statistics will reduce us to mechanical robots.
所有統計數據，都是歷史塵蹟。倚賴它們去預測未來，必須有賴於舊事或過往因素的有效性，才有機會作出正確的預測和分析。例如，統計數字顯示，一個普通的美 國中年人，平均年薪為＄65000美元，擁有2.5部汽車和1.2個子女。明顯地，沒有人會能擁有2.5部汽車和1.2個子女的。明顯地，沒有人會可能擁有 2.5部汽車和1.2個子女的。盲目地跟隨數字，只會令人變成機械人，不能變通。
To give you a more tangible example of dynamic analysis or planning, I will cite my own experience in my past voluntary work in China. During 2002 or thereabout my friends and I operated some sort of cooperative arrangement in northern Guangdong besides teaching the children English. We donated some money to set up a fund to make $1,000 interest free loans to farmers to raise chickens to supplement their income. They must repay the loan within a fixed period and the fund will continue to assist other farmers in the same way. Statistics show that the majority are self sufficient in food but so short of cash that their children cannot afford to pay for bus fares to attend classes. Many have to walk 4 hours on a round trip to and from school daily. Rather than handing out charity which is a passive and static way of assistance we decided to take a more dynamic approach to invite their participation in their own financial assistance. This will also give them the dignity of self help as well. So, everyone is happy and proud. Therefore, it is always wiser to think in a dynamic rather than a static manner.
再次以一個確實的例子和本人的體驗，以作說明。在2002年間，我和朋友在中國廣東北部山區，進行一些志願教育工作，給貧困學生教授英文，其間也做些扶貧 工作。照數據顯示，多數農民衣食自足，但現金短缺，引至學童要每天花四小時步行上學。我們便捐款成立基金，貸款為數$1000, 給與貧窮戶，作為養雞幫助家計，並定時償還，再次幫助其他人，令他們自力更生。這樣一來，我們便不只被動和消極地施捨他人，更加顧及他們的自尊，皆大歡 喜。這便是考慮其他因素和效益，動態的思維和分析了。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 58 ) - Feb., 25, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 58 ) - Micro and Macro View ( 微觀與宏觀 ) - Feb., 25, 2011
To be a smart thinker we must avoid all fatal pitfalls in our reasoning process. Normally, one plus one equals two. However, there are exceptions to the rule. The difference between micro and macro situations is a case in point. Micro view generally refers to the individual unit's perspective while macro means from the point of view of the whole environment or group like society at large. For example, psychology is the study of individual behaviour and sociology concerns behaviours as a group. Similarly, microeconomics is the study of behaviour of an individual economic entity and macroeconomics concerns the working of the whole economy.
要有醒目的思維，我們必須避免思想上的誤差。在普通情況，一加一是會等於二，但是也有例外的情況。微觀與宏觀的不同角度，便是屬於這種例外了。微觀是指以個人單位的看法，而宏觀就是以整體或者社會的角度看事物。例如，心理學是有關個人行為思想。而社會學就是群體或社會性的行為和反應。同樣地，微觀經濟是有關經濟個體的行為和反應，宏觀經濟是關乎整體或整個社會的研究。
There is a well known phenomenon in economics called the " paradox of thrift ". On the individual level, the more a person saves the richer he or she becomes. On the contrary, if society as a whole decreases its total spending the whole economy becomes poorer due to the multiplier effect. As you save $100 from your usual weekend dining the restaurant in question loses $100 business. If more people are doing just that the restaurant owner will have to reduce the number of staff and related food supply. The sagged staff will in turn have to reduce their spending due to their job loss by cutting say, their usual weekend movie. As more unemployed people do that the theatre may have to close down creating more unemployed people who must again reduce their usual spending in turn. So, the initial reduction of your $100 can add up to $100 plus the reduced spending of the sagged restaurant workers plus that of the unemployed theatre staff and so on. This is the negative multiplier effect. To prevent this disastrous scenario from happening, the government must increase public spending in infrastructure construction or use tax reduction to prop up consumption ( fiscal measures ) or reduce interest rates to encourage more private consumption ( monetary measures ) to avoid an economic recession.
在經濟學上，有一個出名的現象，名叫「節約的反效果」。在微觀層面，一個人儲蓄越多，個人便越富有。相反地，在社會層面，如果總消費減少，便會產生倍數的經 濟收縮。原因是這樣的，當你少花費$100去吃一個週末晚餐時， 餐館便失去$100生意，多了人節約，餐館老闆可能要裁員。失業的人或者要節省而不再看週末電影，這樣一來，戲院老闆又要裁員自保。這樣一來，整個社會便 損失了不止原本的$100,並且加上餐館和戲院失業員工的減少花費，形成惡性循環，消費倍數減少。要避免這種損害，政府必須增加公共開支 （ 財政措施），或者以減少稅收來刺激經濟增長。減低利息 （ 金融措施），也可以刺激消費。
The lesson to be learned here is that more is different due to complex human behaviour and interaction. Therefore, things must not be viewed in isolation but must be put in the proper perspective of the whole situation. One citizen throwing one piece of rubbish is not a big problem ( micro view ) but everyone doing that will cost society billions of dollars disposing of rubbish ( the macro view ). Thus, we must think smart as modern global citizens.
從以上例子，我們可以得到以下教訓，就是多了互動單位和因素，結果完全會與單一因素不同。因此，分析事物必須整體和全面作考慮。一個人拋一點垃圾不成大問 題（ 微觀看法），每一個人都是垃圾蟲，便要社會支付數以千萬的費用來處理了（ 宏觀看法）。因此，作為今天的世界公民，我們必須擁有醒目的思維。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
To be a smart thinker we must avoid all fatal pitfalls in our reasoning process. Normally, one plus one equals two. However, there are exceptions to the rule. The difference between micro and macro situations is a case in point. Micro view generally refers to the individual unit's perspective while macro means from the point of view of the whole environment or group like society at large. For example, psychology is the study of individual behaviour and sociology concerns behaviours as a group. Similarly, microeconomics is the study of behaviour of an individual economic entity and macroeconomics concerns the working of the whole economy.
要有醒目的思維，我們必須避免思想上的誤差。在普通情況，一加一是會等於二，但是也有例外的情況。微觀與宏觀的不同角度，便是屬於這種例外了。微觀是指以個人單位的看法，而宏觀就是以整體或者社會的角度看事物。例如，心理學是有關個人行為思想。而社會學就是群體或社會性的行為和反應。同樣地，微觀經濟是有關經濟個體的行為和反應，宏觀經濟是關乎整體或整個社會的研究。
There is a well known phenomenon in economics called the " paradox of thrift ". On the individual level, the more a person saves the richer he or she becomes. On the contrary, if society as a whole decreases its total spending the whole economy becomes poorer due to the multiplier effect. As you save $100 from your usual weekend dining the restaurant in question loses $100 business. If more people are doing just that the restaurant owner will have to reduce the number of staff and related food supply. The sagged staff will in turn have to reduce their spending due to their job loss by cutting say, their usual weekend movie. As more unemployed people do that the theatre may have to close down creating more unemployed people who must again reduce their usual spending in turn. So, the initial reduction of your $100 can add up to $100 plus the reduced spending of the sagged restaurant workers plus that of the unemployed theatre staff and so on. This is the negative multiplier effect. To prevent this disastrous scenario from happening, the government must increase public spending in infrastructure construction or use tax reduction to prop up consumption ( fiscal measures ) or reduce interest rates to encourage more private consumption ( monetary measures ) to avoid an economic recession.
在經濟學上，有一個出名的現象，名叫「節約的反效果」。在微觀層面，一個人儲蓄越多，個人便越富有。相反地，在社會層面，如果總消費減少，便會產生倍數的經 濟收縮。原因是這樣的，當你少花費$100去吃一個週末晚餐時， 餐館便失去$100生意，多了人節約，餐館老闆可能要裁員。失業的人或者要節省而不再看週末電影，這樣一來，戲院老闆又要裁員自保。這樣一來，整個社會便 損失了不止原本的$100,並且加上餐館和戲院失業員工的減少花費，形成惡性循環，消費倍數減少。要避免這種損害，政府必須增加公共開支 （ 財政措施），或者以減少稅收來刺激經濟增長。減低利息 （ 金融措施），也可以刺激消費。
The lesson to be learned here is that more is different due to complex human behaviour and interaction. Therefore, things must not be viewed in isolation but must be put in the proper perspective of the whole situation. One citizen throwing one piece of rubbish is not a big problem ( micro view ) but everyone doing that will cost society billions of dollars disposing of rubbish ( the macro view ). Thus, we must think smart as modern global citizens.
從以上例子，我們可以得到以下教訓，就是多了互動單位和因素，結果完全會與單一因素不同。因此，分析事物必須整體和全面作考慮。一個人拋一點垃圾不成大問 題（ 微觀看法），每一個人都是垃圾蟲，便要社會支付數以千萬的費用來處理了（ 宏觀看法）。因此，作為今天的世界公民，我們必須擁有醒目的思維。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Financial Tsunami ( FT ) ( continued ) - ( 21 ) - Feb., 20, 2011
The Financial Tsunami ( FT ) ( continued ) - ( 21 ) - G20 in Paris ( ( 巴黎G20高峰會 ) - Feb., 20, 2011
( Report from BBC NEWS : http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12499214 )
First of all, I must express my deepest regret that the aftermath of the 2008 financial tsunami is still hindering the recovery of the world economy. This is my #21 blog post on the FT. Had there been better cooperation between the different economies in the world a full recovery should have been a reality by now.
首先，我想表達我的遺憾，因為2008年八月開始的金融海嘯餘波，到了兩年多的今天，仍現然持續，令世界經濟未能復元。這是我有關金融海嘯的第二十一篇部落格 （ BLOG ）文章。假若各國衷誠合作的話，世界經濟早已復甦了。
At the ongoing Paris meeting of G20 to deal with the aftermath of the 2008 financial tsunami members sadly failed to agree on targets to address economic imbalance. I list out below the various important issues under discussion :-
正在巴黎進行中的G20 峰會，可悲地又無法同意，如何調整經濟不平衡的目標。他們討論的主題如下:-
( 1 ) The exchange rate of the Yuan
人民幣的匯率
There is a continued call from the western countries to pressure China to revalue the Yuan. The RMB is by all standards undervalued but the true extent cannot be objectively determined unless it becomes a freely circulating currency which value could then be decided by supply and demand. This in turn would more fairly reflect the strength of a country's trading position. Despite the huge deficits accumulated by USA the dollar did not devalue accordingly because it is also a banker or reserve currency of most economies. Therefore, it is not solely China's fault that this is so. As numerous economic entities are holding assets in US dollars no one wants to see it fall drastically. If it really does this will again precipitate another financial tsunami. This is both a privileged and vulnerable position of a banker currency the advantage being higher purchasing power despite huge spending deficits and the disadvantage being less competitive in trade. As for the devaluation of the Yuan, there is not much room for devaluation without hurting her economy. This is so because China mainly depends on cheap labour to accumulate her surplus. The profit margin for such low value added production is but a few percentage points. Devaluing too much would completely wipe out her competitive edge over other developing economies. Anyway, by the current practice of money printing to finance her deficits USA is actually devaluing the dollar unilaterally. Mind you this is a fast track down to a third world country once people can find a replacement reserve currency. This is happening fast. Please see ( 2 ) below.
以西方國家為首的予會者，又再度要求人民幣貶值。確實地說， 人民幣的價值是偏低，沒有完全反映中國的經濟強化。至於確實低了多少，是十分難以確定，除非它是自由匯兌的貨幣，則可以由供應和需求決定其價值。這也可以 反映中國的貿易狀況。儘管美國累積了巨額赤字，但是美元仍沒有大幅貶值。這是因為它也擔當其他國家儲備貨幣的責任。因此，美元的偏高，不完全是中國的責 任。有很多經濟單位都擁有大量美元資產，沒有人希望它大幅貶值。如果這成為現實，更會導致全球災難性的金融大慘劇。作為儲備貨幣，有益處也有害處。益處在 巨大赤下也能夠保持購買力，害處在降低了競爭能力。就以人民幣貶值一事，其實它的貶值空間不大。原因是中國以廉價工資為優勢，高增值工業佔少數。邊際利潤只 有幾個百分比，大幅貶值會摧毀中國的競爭能力。其實，美國現行以印鈔票的方法去支付花費，已經是在單方面自行貶值美元了。可悲的是，這會令美國淪為第三世界國家，別人會更換其他貨幣為儲備，不再倚靠美元了。這會十分快成為事實的，請看以下（ 2 ）段。
( 2 ) Including the Yuan as a part of the IMF Special Drawing Rights ( SDR )
將人民幣加入為國際貨幣基金的特別提支權利中
This is a first step to using it as a reserve currency like the US Dollar. China may not like it at this point in time because her autocratic political system requires total control over everything. Anyway, it is not very feasible at this stage because it is not a freely circulating currency as yet. Special Drawing Rights are financial support provided by the International Monetary Fund to its members in case of financial emergency. Members contribute to the setting up of the reserve of SDR according to their agreed share. SDR are composed of various major currencies that are mostly freely circulating although this emergency asset is denominated in US dollars for accounting purposes. However, it is a good start to sideline the US dollar as the main reserve currency of the world which signifies a decline in the dominance of the US economy.
這是將人民幣變成一種儲備貨幣的第一步。中國在這個時刻，未必想這樣做。為因中國政府是要求在各個範疇都可加以控制的。而且，在人民幣未成為自由匯兌貨幣前，這做法意義不大。特別提付權，是國際貨幣基金給予成員國的緊急金融支援。富有成員各自提供金錢，以主要貨幣組成SDR。不過在原則上，這是降低美元在SDR 的比重， 是明智的做法。這也意味到美元地位的下降。
Apart from the discussion of revamp of the SDR some economists at the meeting have squarely put the blame on China for contributing to the 2008 financial tsunami by buying up US government bonds ( when bond prices are high the effective interest rate will be low because bonds are fixed monetary value debt instruments ) causing US interest rates to remain low thus culminating in the tsunami. While this is a contributing factor the root of the tsunami had actually originated from over spending in USA which was not in line with the corresponding increase in her productive efficiency. Excess speculation and more importantly illegal and unethical practices of some Wall Street gurus are the final straw that broke the camel's back. The evils of excessive speculation are now obvious in the drastic increase in food prices which is another looming catastrophe. Please see ( 3 ) below.
除將SDR改進外，有些經濟學家指控中國的大量購買美國政府債券，因而推低美國利息，是2008金融海嘯的懸凶。由於債券是固定價錢的債務，所以價錢越 高，回報利息便越低。雖然這是原因之一，但是更重要的因素是美國花費遠超過其生產效率，加以過分投機，和華爾街不良經紀的非法活動，才導致大災難。過度投機的禍害，可在飛漲的基本商品價格中看到。請看以下第（ 3 ）段。
( 3 ) The drastic increase in prices of basic commodities.
It is a good sign that G20 started to address the rapid increase in prices of basic commodities. While speculation is part and partial of a market or capitalistic economy it can be fatal at times. Speculation which involves buying and selling forward ( the futures market ) was originally meant to allowed consumers to cover their risk. For example, a Hong Kong citizen has bought a house in New York which he has to settle payment in six month. With the futures market in US dollars operating he or she can cover the exchange risk by booking the required amount of US dollars now. It is just like a kind of insurance. However, people can speculate purely on the future price without using the future US dollar contract for normal trading purpose. With the availability of financial leverage ( paying just a fraction of the total price of the future contract and paying interest on the balance owed ) and the prevailing low interest rate speculators can create what we call a lot of speculative demand on basic food commodities. That is the main reason for the sudden surge in food and petroleum prices apart from effects of natural disasters and political instability like the current crisis in the Middle East.
G20開始討論基本商品和食糧價格飛漲問題，這是一個好現象。雖然投機是市場經濟的一部分，但是在某種情況下，它是會致命的。投機是指買空賣空商品，本來是給 予消費者一個保險的安排。例如，一個香港人買了一所紐約的房子，要在六個月後付款。為了保險，他可以在期貨市場，以現在的匯率買下需要的美元，當然需要付 點費用，但可以保証不用將來付更高的匯率。不過有時，人們也可以為賺取利潤而投機的。如果利息低，人們更可以利用槓桿原理，或俗稱媽展(MARGIN)買 賣，只用價錢的少部分買更多的期貨。於是，這投機的需要，便構成了更多需求，引致基本商品價錢暴漲了。這便是近日，基本商品價錢飛升的主要原因。雖然，自 然災害和例如中東政治動蕩，都會影響物品價錢。
Although an ideal market should be totally free just like a full load of passengers on a cruise ship at sea ( who must be allowed to move around to enjoy their cruise ) there must , nevertheless, be some kind of safety precaution like asking passengers not to make a sudden rush to one side of the ship to avoid capsizing. Nothing is totally free in terms of action in this world. Therefore, some kind of restriction must be imposed on speculation of basic commodities that affect the lives of billions of global citizens. However, it must not be overdone to the point of creating artificially low prices which will not reflect the true demand needs and thus giving rise to short supply of a particular item. This will happen just like when governments are subsidizing the price of agricultural products for political reason leading to artificially low prices that will deter people from engaging in agricultural production. This will ultimately lead to a shortage of supply. We see this phenomenon in China where a lot of farm land is converted to real estate development thus leading to the need of more import of staple food items.
雖然一個理想的市場是應絕對自由的，但是在某些情況下，恰當控制是無可厚非的。例如，一艘滿載乘客的海上郵輪，乘客是必須自由活動，才可以享受旅程的。不過，某些安全指引，如乘客不可全部同一時間衝往船的一邊，以防發生意外，這是可以理解的限制。在 這世界裏，是沒有百份百的自由這回事的。例如關乎千百萬人的基本生活需要，便有需要加以恰當的監管了。話需要說回來，這些控制卻不能過量，引致有關商品價 錢過低，令到生產者卻步，最後會變成供應短缺，這便壞了大事。中國的農地，多變為地產項目，這都是因為國家補貼農產品所至。
Hopefully, common sense will prevail in the Paris G20 meeting. All countries must work hand in hand sincerely to put the world economy on the right path to a full recovery. Most importantly, a world food crisis cannot be allowed to materialize.
希望G20的予會國家保持理性的態度，拿出誠意來攜手合作，令世界經濟返回復甦之路。最重要的是不能容許食糧危機，成為事實。
JKHC. ( 鄭冠合 )
( Report from BBC NEWS : http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12499214 )
First of all, I must express my deepest regret that the aftermath of the 2008 financial tsunami is still hindering the recovery of the world economy. This is my #21 blog post on the FT. Had there been better cooperation between the different economies in the world a full recovery should have been a reality by now.
首先，我想表達我的遺憾，因為2008年八月開始的金融海嘯餘波，到了兩年多的今天，仍現然持續，令世界經濟未能復元。這是我有關金融海嘯的第二十一篇部落格 （ BLOG ）文章。假若各國衷誠合作的話，世界經濟早已復甦了。
At the ongoing Paris meeting of G20 to deal with the aftermath of the 2008 financial tsunami members sadly failed to agree on targets to address economic imbalance. I list out below the various important issues under discussion :-
正在巴黎進行中的G20 峰會，可悲地又無法同意，如何調整經濟不平衡的目標。他們討論的主題如下:-
( 1 ) The exchange rate of the Yuan
人民幣的匯率
There is a continued call from the western countries to pressure China to revalue the Yuan. The RMB is by all standards undervalued but the true extent cannot be objectively determined unless it becomes a freely circulating currency which value could then be decided by supply and demand. This in turn would more fairly reflect the strength of a country's trading position. Despite the huge deficits accumulated by USA the dollar did not devalue accordingly because it is also a banker or reserve currency of most economies. Therefore, it is not solely China's fault that this is so. As numerous economic entities are holding assets in US dollars no one wants to see it fall drastically. If it really does this will again precipitate another financial tsunami. This is both a privileged and vulnerable position of a banker currency the advantage being higher purchasing power despite huge spending deficits and the disadvantage being less competitive in trade. As for the devaluation of the Yuan, there is not much room for devaluation without hurting her economy. This is so because China mainly depends on cheap labour to accumulate her surplus. The profit margin for such low value added production is but a few percentage points. Devaluing too much would completely wipe out her competitive edge over other developing economies. Anyway, by the current practice of money printing to finance her deficits USA is actually devaluing the dollar unilaterally. Mind you this is a fast track down to a third world country once people can find a replacement reserve currency. This is happening fast. Please see ( 2 ) below.
以西方國家為首的予會者，又再度要求人民幣貶值。確實地說， 人民幣的價值是偏低，沒有完全反映中國的經濟強化。至於確實低了多少，是十分難以確定，除非它是自由匯兌的貨幣，則可以由供應和需求決定其價值。這也可以 反映中國的貿易狀況。儘管美國累積了巨額赤字，但是美元仍沒有大幅貶值。這是因為它也擔當其他國家儲備貨幣的責任。因此，美元的偏高，不完全是中國的責 任。有很多經濟單位都擁有大量美元資產，沒有人希望它大幅貶值。如果這成為現實，更會導致全球災難性的金融大慘劇。作為儲備貨幣，有益處也有害處。益處在 巨大赤下也能夠保持購買力，害處在降低了競爭能力。就以人民幣貶值一事，其實它的貶值空間不大。原因是中國以廉價工資為優勢，高增值工業佔少數。邊際利潤只 有幾個百分比，大幅貶值會摧毀中國的競爭能力。其實，美國現行以印鈔票的方法去支付花費，已經是在單方面自行貶值美元了。可悲的是，這會令美國淪為第三世界國家，別人會更換其他貨幣為儲備，不再倚靠美元了。這會十分快成為事實的，請看以下（ 2 ）段。
( 2 ) Including the Yuan as a part of the IMF Special Drawing Rights ( SDR )
將人民幣加入為國際貨幣基金的特別提支權利中
This is a first step to using it as a reserve currency like the US Dollar. China may not like it at this point in time because her autocratic political system requires total control over everything. Anyway, it is not very feasible at this stage because it is not a freely circulating currency as yet. Special Drawing Rights are financial support provided by the International Monetary Fund to its members in case of financial emergency. Members contribute to the setting up of the reserve of SDR according to their agreed share. SDR are composed of various major currencies that are mostly freely circulating although this emergency asset is denominated in US dollars for accounting purposes. However, it is a good start to sideline the US dollar as the main reserve currency of the world which signifies a decline in the dominance of the US economy.
這是將人民幣變成一種儲備貨幣的第一步。中國在這個時刻，未必想這樣做。為因中國政府是要求在各個範疇都可加以控制的。而且，在人民幣未成為自由匯兌貨幣前，這做法意義不大。特別提付權，是國際貨幣基金給予成員國的緊急金融支援。富有成員各自提供金錢，以主要貨幣組成SDR。不過在原則上，這是降低美元在SDR 的比重， 是明智的做法。這也意味到美元地位的下降。
Apart from the discussion of revamp of the SDR some economists at the meeting have squarely put the blame on China for contributing to the 2008 financial tsunami by buying up US government bonds ( when bond prices are high the effective interest rate will be low because bonds are fixed monetary value debt instruments ) causing US interest rates to remain low thus culminating in the tsunami. While this is a contributing factor the root of the tsunami had actually originated from over spending in USA which was not in line with the corresponding increase in her productive efficiency. Excess speculation and more importantly illegal and unethical practices of some Wall Street gurus are the final straw that broke the camel's back. The evils of excessive speculation are now obvious in the drastic increase in food prices which is another looming catastrophe. Please see ( 3 ) below.
除將SDR改進外，有些經濟學家指控中國的大量購買美國政府債券，因而推低美國利息，是2008金融海嘯的懸凶。由於債券是固定價錢的債務，所以價錢越 高，回報利息便越低。雖然這是原因之一，但是更重要的因素是美國花費遠超過其生產效率，加以過分投機，和華爾街不良經紀的非法活動，才導致大災難。過度投機的禍害，可在飛漲的基本商品價格中看到。請看以下第（ 3 ）段。
( 3 ) The drastic increase in prices of basic commodities.
It is a good sign that G20 started to address the rapid increase in prices of basic commodities. While speculation is part and partial of a market or capitalistic economy it can be fatal at times. Speculation which involves buying and selling forward ( the futures market ) was originally meant to allowed consumers to cover their risk. For example, a Hong Kong citizen has bought a house in New York which he has to settle payment in six month. With the futures market in US dollars operating he or she can cover the exchange risk by booking the required amount of US dollars now. It is just like a kind of insurance. However, people can speculate purely on the future price without using the future US dollar contract for normal trading purpose. With the availability of financial leverage ( paying just a fraction of the total price of the future contract and paying interest on the balance owed ) and the prevailing low interest rate speculators can create what we call a lot of speculative demand on basic food commodities. That is the main reason for the sudden surge in food and petroleum prices apart from effects of natural disasters and political instability like the current crisis in the Middle East.
G20開始討論基本商品和食糧價格飛漲問題，這是一個好現象。雖然投機是市場經濟的一部分，但是在某種情況下，它是會致命的。投機是指買空賣空商品，本來是給 予消費者一個保險的安排。例如，一個香港人買了一所紐約的房子，要在六個月後付款。為了保險，他可以在期貨市場，以現在的匯率買下需要的美元，當然需要付 點費用，但可以保証不用將來付更高的匯率。不過有時，人們也可以為賺取利潤而投機的。如果利息低，人們更可以利用槓桿原理，或俗稱媽展(MARGIN)買 賣，只用價錢的少部分買更多的期貨。於是，這投機的需要，便構成了更多需求，引致基本商品價錢暴漲了。這便是近日，基本商品價錢飛升的主要原因。雖然，自 然災害和例如中東政治動蕩，都會影響物品價錢。
Although an ideal market should be totally free just like a full load of passengers on a cruise ship at sea ( who must be allowed to move around to enjoy their cruise ) there must , nevertheless, be some kind of safety precaution like asking passengers not to make a sudden rush to one side of the ship to avoid capsizing. Nothing is totally free in terms of action in this world. Therefore, some kind of restriction must be imposed on speculation of basic commodities that affect the lives of billions of global citizens. However, it must not be overdone to the point of creating artificially low prices which will not reflect the true demand needs and thus giving rise to short supply of a particular item. This will happen just like when governments are subsidizing the price of agricultural products for political reason leading to artificially low prices that will deter people from engaging in agricultural production. This will ultimately lead to a shortage of supply. We see this phenomenon in China where a lot of farm land is converted to real estate development thus leading to the need of more import of staple food items.
雖然一個理想的市場是應絕對自由的，但是在某些情況下，恰當控制是無可厚非的。例如，一艘滿載乘客的海上郵輪，乘客是必須自由活動，才可以享受旅程的。不過，某些安全指引，如乘客不可全部同一時間衝往船的一邊，以防發生意外，這是可以理解的限制。在 這世界裏，是沒有百份百的自由這回事的。例如關乎千百萬人的基本生活需要，便有需要加以恰當的監管了。話需要說回來，這些控制卻不能過量，引致有關商品價 錢過低，令到生產者卻步，最後會變成供應短缺，這便壞了大事。中國的農地，多變為地產項目，這都是因為國家補貼農產品所至。
Hopefully, common sense will prevail in the Paris G20 meeting. All countries must work hand in hand sincerely to put the world economy on the right path to a full recovery. Most importantly, a world food crisis cannot be allowed to materialize.
希望G20的予會國家保持理性的態度，拿出誠意來攜手合作，令世界經濟返回復甦之路。最重要的是不能容許食糧危機，成為事實。
JKHC. ( 鄭冠合 )
Friday, February 18, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 57 ) - Feb., 19, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 57 ) - Selection Effect ( 選擇效應 ) - Feb., 19, 2011
Selection effect is the single most powerful factor that shapes our behaviour and human society at large. It is so overpowering and yet extremely subtle that we are influenced by it without our conscious knowledge. A simple example will illustrate my point. The most generally accepted idea in human society is the mystical concept of destiny ( although a small percentage of the population like yours truly do not abide by it ). I respectfully submit that this is the result of the selection effect. Say, a teenage girl meets a boy to whom she is instantly attracted in a subway train one day while getting to work. Let us say they strike up a conversation and become friends thus starting a romance. More likely than not, the girl will be completely convinced that destiny has a hand in their chanced meeting. What about other passengers on the same train ? Are they not equally arranged by destiny to be there with the girl ? Why doesn't the girl feel that destiny has also tied her to the other people on the train ? The short answer is that she chooses to like her boy. She has, in fact, " chosen her own destiny ". That is the subconscious working of the selection effect or the exercise of her free will. I am not against believing in destiny despite my own rejection of the concept but I am suggesting that there could be other factors at work. Blindly following the destiny concept could possibly result in self fulfilling prophecies or degenerate into superstition that could be harmful.
Besides the example of destiny, there are other harmful phenomena such as double standards, prejudice, extremism and numerous other human shortcomings that have to do with seeing things only from one's own perspective. They are all mainly the result of the selection effect. To avoid falling victim to this devastatingly harmful selection effect, it is advisable to look at things from different angles and not just from your own point of view.
選擇效應，是影響我們行為最強的單一因素。它甚至會影響整個社會的動向。它是十分強有力和極端含蓄的力量，令我們暗地裏受它影響而不自知。我可以用一個簡 單的例子加以說明。在人類社會中，最廣泛被接受的玄妙概念，就是有命運存在的說法（ 雖然有少部份人，包括本人在內, 不相信命運）。我沒有存心不敬地認為，命運之說，是選擇效應的結果。比例說，某天有一位少女，在上班時，在地鐵上和她一位鍾情的少年相遇。兩人互相傾慕而 交談起來，於是一段戀情便展開。在那位少女的角度看，她大多數都會認為是命運的安排。那麼她和其他同車的乘客，又是否有命運安排呢？為什麼她不會以命運之 說，來形容其他乘客呀！其實，她是對那位少年，作了她的個人選擇，認定了他是生命的一部分，亦即是說，那位女孩自己選擇了這般命運，不是命運安排她的生 命, 這是她自由意志的發揮才對。我並不反對別人相信命運，只不過認為有其他因素，推動所為命運之說。盲目地迷信命運，可能會導致有害的自行成真預言，那便十分 不幸了。
除了以上有關命運的例子，另外選擇效應的壞效果實在數不清，它們包括雙重標準，各色各樣的偏見，極端主義等，不勝枚舉。它們都是因為以自己和單一的角度看事物 所做成的惡果。而且都是由選擇效應所導致的。為避免受到它的禍害，我們必須從多方面分析事物，不要坐井觀天，卻要推己及人，便可享受海闊天空。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Selection effect is the single most powerful factor that shapes our behaviour and human society at large. It is so overpowering and yet extremely subtle that we are influenced by it without our conscious knowledge. A simple example will illustrate my point. The most generally accepted idea in human society is the mystical concept of destiny ( although a small percentage of the population like yours truly do not abide by it ). I respectfully submit that this is the result of the selection effect. Say, a teenage girl meets a boy to whom she is instantly attracted in a subway train one day while getting to work. Let us say they strike up a conversation and become friends thus starting a romance. More likely than not, the girl will be completely convinced that destiny has a hand in their chanced meeting. What about other passengers on the same train ? Are they not equally arranged by destiny to be there with the girl ? Why doesn't the girl feel that destiny has also tied her to the other people on the train ? The short answer is that she chooses to like her boy. She has, in fact, " chosen her own destiny ". That is the subconscious working of the selection effect or the exercise of her free will. I am not against believing in destiny despite my own rejection of the concept but I am suggesting that there could be other factors at work. Blindly following the destiny concept could possibly result in self fulfilling prophecies or degenerate into superstition that could be harmful.
Besides the example of destiny, there are other harmful phenomena such as double standards, prejudice, extremism and numerous other human shortcomings that have to do with seeing things only from one's own perspective. They are all mainly the result of the selection effect. To avoid falling victim to this devastatingly harmful selection effect, it is advisable to look at things from different angles and not just from your own point of view.
選擇效應，是影響我們行為最強的單一因素。它甚至會影響整個社會的動向。它是十分強有力和極端含蓄的力量，令我們暗地裏受它影響而不自知。我可以用一個簡 單的例子加以說明。在人類社會中，最廣泛被接受的玄妙概念，就是有命運存在的說法（ 雖然有少部份人，包括本人在內, 不相信命運）。我沒有存心不敬地認為，命運之說，是選擇效應的結果。比例說，某天有一位少女，在上班時，在地鐵上和她一位鍾情的少年相遇。兩人互相傾慕而 交談起來，於是一段戀情便展開。在那位少女的角度看，她大多數都會認為是命運的安排。那麼她和其他同車的乘客，又是否有命運安排呢？為什麼她不會以命運之 說，來形容其他乘客呀！其實，她是對那位少年，作了她的個人選擇，認定了他是生命的一部分，亦即是說，那位女孩自己選擇了這般命運，不是命運安排她的生 命, 這是她自由意志的發揮才對。我並不反對別人相信命運，只不過認為有其他因素，推動所為命運之說。盲目地迷信命運，可能會導致有害的自行成真預言，那便十分 不幸了。
除了以上有關命運的例子，另外選擇效應的壞效果實在數不清，它們包括雙重標準，各色各樣的偏見，極端主義等，不勝枚舉。它們都是因為以自己和單一的角度看事物 所做成的惡果。而且都是由選擇效應所導致的。為避免受到它的禍害，我們必須從多方面分析事物，不要坐井觀天，卻要推己及人，便可享受海闊天空。
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Poem - Ode to Chinese Valentine's Day - Feb, 17, 2011
Poem - Ode to Chinese Valentine's Day ( 頌元宵 ) - Poetry & Prose - ( 5 ) - Feb., 17 , 2011
元宵佳節慶團圓
Chinese Valentine means love and happiness forever.
緣份天賜喜鳳鑾
Destiny is gifted by heaven so blessed be all lovers.
鑾鳳和鳴共嬋娟
May they always be as one and stay true to each other.
眷顧萬家福壽全
Longevity, fortune and unity too, to all our brothers & sisters !
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
元宵佳節慶團圓
Chinese Valentine means love and happiness forever.
緣份天賜喜鳳鑾
Destiny is gifted by heaven so blessed be all lovers.
鑾鳳和鳴共嬋娟
May they always be as one and stay true to each other.
眷顧萬家福壽全
Longevity, fortune and unity too, to all our brothers & sisters !
JKHC ( 鄭冠合 )
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 56 ) - Feb., 17, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 56 ) - The Fallacy of Assumed Mutual Exclusivity ( 假定互相排斥的謬誤 ) - Feb., 17, 2011
This is a very common fallacy that affects most of our decisions. Ever so often we find ourselves opposing a proposal, say to allocate a portion of the public budget to the welfare of animals on the ground that we still have many poor citizens that need attention. Behind all such seemingly reasonable arguments there is the implicit assumption that the choices in question are mutually exclusive. This is called the fallacy of assumed mutual exclusivity meaning that we can only have one without the other or that things are all mutually exclusive when we are faced with a choice. This fallacy can lead to excuses that justify inaction while we are morally obligated to do something in the face of injustice. For example, we may feel that we are excused from helping others when we still have some unsolved problems of our own or that we need not help those worse off than us when we are not well off ourselves. This cannot be farther from the truth. It is just an excuse to dodge our moral responsibilities. Next time when we are faced with a choice beware of this very common fallacy that can lead us to wrong conclusions or the shunning of our moral responsibilities.
這是一種十分常見的思維謬誤。我們時常作出類似的決定，例如反對以公帑來改善動物福利。原因在認為仍然有很多貧困的公民需要照顧。在類似的決定後面，都包 含着假定兩者是不能共存的。即是說，我們假定只能在這兩個目標中二選其一。這樣的思維會給我們藉口去逃避道德上的責任，不去申張正義。比如，我們可能會認 為，未解決自己所有個人問題前，便沒有幫助其他人的責任。又或者，在自己未成為富翁前，不用幫助比較貧困的人。其實，這是離開真理十分遠的看法。這只會成 為令我們逃避道德責任的藉口吧了。下次我們要作出抉擇時，請小心提防和避免犯了這種謬誤。
JKHC
This is a very common fallacy that affects most of our decisions. Ever so often we find ourselves opposing a proposal, say to allocate a portion of the public budget to the welfare of animals on the ground that we still have many poor citizens that need attention. Behind all such seemingly reasonable arguments there is the implicit assumption that the choices in question are mutually exclusive. This is called the fallacy of assumed mutual exclusivity meaning that we can only have one without the other or that things are all mutually exclusive when we are faced with a choice. This fallacy can lead to excuses that justify inaction while we are morally obligated to do something in the face of injustice. For example, we may feel that we are excused from helping others when we still have some unsolved problems of our own or that we need not help those worse off than us when we are not well off ourselves. This cannot be farther from the truth. It is just an excuse to dodge our moral responsibilities. Next time when we are faced with a choice beware of this very common fallacy that can lead us to wrong conclusions or the shunning of our moral responsibilities.
這是一種十分常見的思維謬誤。我們時常作出類似的決定，例如反對以公帑來改善動物福利。原因在認為仍然有很多貧困的公民需要照顧。在類似的決定後面，都包 含着假定兩者是不能共存的。即是說，我們假定只能在這兩個目標中二選其一。這樣的思維會給我們藉口去逃避道德上的責任，不去申張正義。比如，我們可能會認 為，未解決自己所有個人問題前，便沒有幫助其他人的責任。又或者，在自己未成為富翁前，不用幫助比較貧困的人。其實，這是離開真理十分遠的看法。這只會成 為令我們逃避道德責任的藉口吧了。下次我們要作出抉擇時，請小心提防和避免犯了這種謬誤。
JKHC
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 55 ) - Feb., 16, 2011
Thoughts to You From Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 55 ) - Two Cheers for Democracy ! ( 為民主作兩次歡呼！) - Feb., 16, 2011
Democracy deserves only two cheers as the British author E.M. Forster rightly said. There is still something to be desired, namely, the assurance that each vote is conscientiously cast by the fully informed voter not under any pressure in the voting process. The first part of this worry concerns the individual while the second part is the result of external factors. Ultimately, all political and moral issues are dependent on the conscience of the individual. Not until each human being has learned to be fair and compassionate to everyone else can democracy earn the third and final cheer. To this end, an effective and unbiased education system seems to be the ultimate solution given sufficient time.
英國作家福斯特說得對:「為民主作兩次歡呼吧！」為因民主制度仍有不完善之處。即是說投票者有沒有憑良心和足夠資訊及知識去自由投票，不受到任何壓力下行使其投票權。前者是個人問題，而後者則是外來因素。最終而言，所有政治和道德問題，都是繫於個人的良知。直到每一個人都懂得以公平和憐憫心對待他人，民主才會贏得第三和最後的歡呼。為達到這目的，似乎需要一個有效和不偏不倚的教育制度，以及足夠的時間才成。
Democracy deserves only two cheers as the British author E.M. Forster rightly said. There is still something to be desired, namely, the assurance that each vote is conscientiously cast by the fully informed voter not under any pressure in the voting process. The first part of this worry concerns the individual while the second part is the result of external factors. Ultimately, all political and moral issues are dependent on the conscience of the individual. Not until each human being has learned to be fair and compassionate to everyone else can democracy earn the third and final cheer. To this end, an effective and unbiased education system seems to be the ultimate solution given sufficient time.
英國作家福斯特說得對:「為民主作兩次歡呼吧！」為因民主制度仍有不完善之處。即是說投票者有沒有憑良心和足夠資訊及知識去自由投票，不受到任何壓力下行使其投票權。前者是個人問題，而後者則是外來因素。最終而言，所有政治和道德問題，都是繫於個人的良知。直到每一個人都懂得以公平和憐憫心對待他人，民主才會贏得第三和最後的歡呼。為達到這目的，似乎需要一個有效和不偏不倚的教育制度，以及足夠的時間才成。
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Poem - Be My Valentine ! - Poetry & Prose - ( 4 ) - Feb., 14,2011
Poem ( 詩 ) - Be my Valentine ! 成為我的情人吧！ - Poetry & Prose - ( 4 ) - Feb., 14, 2011
Be my Valentine my friendly folks one and all
from today on and forever more.
請成為我的情人吧，我一群友善的朋輩，從今天起直到永遠！
Through thick and thin we'll march hand in hand
past life's challenging doors.
讓我們攜手同渡人生痛苦與厄困， 齊步衝破生命的挑戰吧。
Love me always as a friend or simply a human kind
never with apathy but compassion strong.
像朋友一般愛護着我，或許就像對每一個人應有的慈悲，卻不可對我冷漠呀！
Especially on Valentine's Day when the whole world is in love
so that nothing can go wrong.
特別是在情人節今天，世界總是充滿着愛，一切夢想都會成為現實之時。
( May all lovers be happy together and forever more ! )
( 但願天下有情人終成眷屬！)
Joseph K.H. Cheng
( 鄭冠合 )
Be my Valentine my friendly folks one and all
from today on and forever more.
請成為我的情人吧，我一群友善的朋輩，從今天起直到永遠！
Through thick and thin we'll march hand in hand
past life's challenging doors.
讓我們攜手同渡人生痛苦與厄困， 齊步衝破生命的挑戰吧。
Love me always as a friend or simply a human kind
never with apathy but compassion strong.
像朋友一般愛護着我，或許就像對每一個人應有的慈悲，卻不可對我冷漠呀！
Especially on Valentine's Day when the whole world is in love
so that nothing can go wrong.
特別是在情人節今天，世界總是充滿着愛，一切夢想都會成為現實之時。
( May all lovers be happy together and forever more ! )
( 但願天下有情人終成眷屬！)
Joseph K.H. Cheng
( 鄭冠合 )
Friday, January 7, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 54 ) - Jan., 8, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 54 ) - Kicks ( 刺激 ) - Jan., 8, 2011
Everyone needs kicks or stimulus to feel alive because life is only interesting when there are ups and downs along the way. Having said that I must hasten to add that only the benign kicks are preferred. Benign kicks are those that provide one with the excitement to make life worth living but at the same time they must not be addictive to the extent of overshadowing all other important and healthy aspects of one's life especially one's responsibility with regard to work, study, family and society.
On my part my kicks come mostly from meeting challenges presented by the big questions in life and the satisfaction I derive from solving bits and pieces of the puzzle which allow the slowly taking of shape of my own answers to those questions. In my humble opinion, slowly elevating one's level of demand for the higher order of such questions will provide never ending food for thought and so the related kicks can last for a life time. Nor is this the only available benign kick. Go find your own according to your talents be it a healthy sport or an artistic pursuit the main aim being adopting a healthy hobby to feel life as it should be for you. The only precaution is to refrain from letting one thing dominate all aspects of your daily routines.
每個人都需要一點兒刺激，才會感覺自己活着。因為沒有起落的生命，是沒有什麼趣味的。話雖如此，但是良性的刺激，才是尚佳的選擇。良性的刺激，是指那些不 會令人上癮的活動。任何事情，如果上了癮，便會令人忘記自己對學業，作品，家庭和社會的一切承擔。
以我而言，我喜歡接受思考人生大問題的挑戰。我所得的滿足感， 是來自看到點滴的困惑，慢慢地型成有意義的答案。愚見認為，把問題的難度慢慢提升到更高層次，會帶來無止境的挑戰。這樣一來，你一生都可擁有一個玩不完的 嗜好。其實，這並不是唯一的良性刺激。只要根據自己的天賦，然後去尋找適合自己的良性刺激便行，比如，某項運動或藝術創作等。總而言之，尋找到某種能你感到生命是有意義的活動，便會令你無盡地受益 一生。唯一要小心的， 是不要讓任何一件事物，蓋過你一切生活的節奏和目標便成。
JKHC ( Jan., 8, 2011 )
Everyone needs kicks or stimulus to feel alive because life is only interesting when there are ups and downs along the way. Having said that I must hasten to add that only the benign kicks are preferred. Benign kicks are those that provide one with the excitement to make life worth living but at the same time they must not be addictive to the extent of overshadowing all other important and healthy aspects of one's life especially one's responsibility with regard to work, study, family and society.
On my part my kicks come mostly from meeting challenges presented by the big questions in life and the satisfaction I derive from solving bits and pieces of the puzzle which allow the slowly taking of shape of my own answers to those questions. In my humble opinion, slowly elevating one's level of demand for the higher order of such questions will provide never ending food for thought and so the related kicks can last for a life time. Nor is this the only available benign kick. Go find your own according to your talents be it a healthy sport or an artistic pursuit the main aim being adopting a healthy hobby to feel life as it should be for you. The only precaution is to refrain from letting one thing dominate all aspects of your daily routines.
每個人都需要一點兒刺激，才會感覺自己活着。因為沒有起落的生命，是沒有什麼趣味的。話雖如此，但是良性的刺激，才是尚佳的選擇。良性的刺激，是指那些不 會令人上癮的活動。任何事情，如果上了癮，便會令人忘記自己對學業，作品，家庭和社會的一切承擔。
以我而言，我喜歡接受思考人生大問題的挑戰。我所得的滿足感， 是來自看到點滴的困惑，慢慢地型成有意義的答案。愚見認為，把問題的難度慢慢提升到更高層次，會帶來無止境的挑戰。這樣一來，你一生都可擁有一個玩不完的 嗜好。其實，這並不是唯一的良性刺激。只要根據自己的天賦，然後去尋找適合自己的良性刺激便行，比如，某項運動或藝術創作等。總而言之，尋找到某種能你感到生命是有意義的活動，便會令你無盡地受益 一生。唯一要小心的， 是不要讓任何一件事物，蓋過你一切生活的節奏和目標便成。
JKHC ( Jan., 8, 2011 )
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 53 ) - Jan., 6, 2011
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 53 ) - New Year Resolutions 2011 ( 新一年的自我承諾 ) - Jan., 6, 2011
I hope it is not too late to set out my resolutions for the new year. Well, better late than never so here goes :-
( 1 ) I undertake to reflect on myself daily and to rectify any misdeeds I have done.
( 2 ) I promise to engage in healthy exercise for at least 20 minutes every other day if not daily.
( 3 ) I will spend less time on my computer and use the time so saved on communicating more with my loved ones.
( 4 ) I reaffirm my pledge to uphold righteousness by word and deed to the best of my ability.
( 5 ) I will not relent on my goal to pass on my knowledge and experience to the younger generation.
( 6 ) I guarantee that anything I write or say is true to my beliefs and the relevant facts as I know them.
( 7 ) I have always deplored double standards and I hereby commit myself to fighting this source of all evils wholeheartedly.
( 8 ) I will continue my quest to find my own answers to the big questions in life.
( 9 ) I must keep being aware of my own insignificance in the grand design of the universe and always conduct myself with humility.
( 10 ) I resolve to utilize my natural capabilities to the limits set by my physical and mental endowment.
May I wish everyone a happy, healthy and rewarding 2011 !
我希望現在才列舉我的2011新年承諾，不會太遲吧！盡管晚了，也比不作承諾為佳。因此，我將本年度的承諾，列舉如下：
( 1 ) 我必定會每天反省，有錯誤便加以補救。
( 2 ) 我承諾每天或隔天，運動20分鐘。
( 3 ) 我會在電腦上花少一些時間，把省下的時間和家人多些溝通。
( 4 ) 我重新承諾，我會以言論和行動，維護正義。
( 5 ) 我不會從我的教育下一代目標，有所退縮。
( 6 ) 我保證我的寫作或言論，一切都符合我的原則信念，並與事實相符。
( 7 ) 我一向憎恨雙重標準，我承諾要經常和繼續對抗這萬惡來源。
( 8 ) 我會繼續研究生命中的大問題，直到得到自己的答案。
( 9) 我會經常提醒自己的渺小，以謙遜處事和待人接物。
( 10 ) 我承諾盡我所能，把自己的天賦能力，盡量發揮，不可懶散。
讓我祝願各位，有一個快樂，健康和豐收的2011年。
JKHC ( Jan., 6, 2011 )
I hope it is not too late to set out my resolutions for the new year. Well, better late than never so here goes :-
( 1 ) I undertake to reflect on myself daily and to rectify any misdeeds I have done.
( 2 ) I promise to engage in healthy exercise for at least 20 minutes every other day if not daily.
( 3 ) I will spend less time on my computer and use the time so saved on communicating more with my loved ones.
( 4 ) I reaffirm my pledge to uphold righteousness by word and deed to the best of my ability.
( 5 ) I will not relent on my goal to pass on my knowledge and experience to the younger generation.
( 6 ) I guarantee that anything I write or say is true to my beliefs and the relevant facts as I know them.
( 7 ) I have always deplored double standards and I hereby commit myself to fighting this source of all evils wholeheartedly.
( 8 ) I will continue my quest to find my own answers to the big questions in life.
( 9 ) I must keep being aware of my own insignificance in the grand design of the universe and always conduct myself with humility.
( 10 ) I resolve to utilize my natural capabilities to the limits set by my physical and mental endowment.
May I wish everyone a happy, healthy and rewarding 2011 !
我希望現在才列舉我的2011新年承諾，不會太遲吧！盡管晚了，也比不作承諾為佳。因此，我將本年度的承諾，列舉如下：
( 1 ) 我必定會每天反省，有錯誤便加以補救。
( 2 ) 我承諾每天或隔天，運動20分鐘。
( 3 ) 我會在電腦上花少一些時間，把省下的時間和家人多些溝通。
( 4 ) 我重新承諾，我會以言論和行動，維護正義。
( 5 ) 我不會從我的教育下一代目標，有所退縮。
( 6 ) 我保證我的寫作或言論，一切都符合我的原則信念，並與事實相符。
( 7 ) 我一向憎恨雙重標準，我承諾要經常和繼續對抗這萬惡來源。
( 8 ) 我會繼續研究生命中的大問題，直到得到自己的答案。
( 9) 我會經常提醒自己的渺小，以謙遜處事和待人接物。
( 10 ) 我承諾盡我所能，把自己的天賦能力，盡量發揮，不可懶散。
讓我祝願各位，有一個快樂，健康和豐收的2011年。
JKHC ( Jan., 6, 2011 )
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Thoughts to you from yours truly - ( 52 ) - November 29, 2010
Thoughts to You from Yours Truly - ( TYYT ) - ( 52 ) - Gratitude ( 感恩 ) - Nov., 29, 2010
Gratitude is the corner stone of happiness as an ungrateful person will never be satisfied with what he or she already possesses. Being ungrateful will lead to an insatiable desire to covet everything one does not have. It will easily turn into greed. Because there are always more good things that one doesn't have than those that one has ( by definition good things must be scarce otherwise they would become average things if they can be found anywhere at any time ) the logical inference of this scenario is very straight forward. Ungrateful people will keep asking for more and this unreasonable expectation is the cause of endless unhappiness for themselves and for all those around them. On the contrary, if you are content with what you have any slight increase in your possession will be a cause for celebration and hence holding such a positive attitude will actually increase your potential for happiness.
感恩是幸福的基石，因為一個不識感恩的人，是永遠不會滿足於自己所擁有的一切。不識感恩，會使人孕育出一種無盡的慾望，去渴求自己未得到的東西。這也是貪 婪的開始。道理十分簡單，因為每一個人所擁有的美好東西，一定比其所擁有的不好東西為少的 （ 物以罕為貴，好的一定比壞的為少，因為這是好的定義 ）。由此推理，會得到簡單的邏輯結論。就是不感恩的人，必然貪得無厭，而因此令到自己和身邊的人，感到無盡的苦惱。相反，如果你對現在所擁有的一切，感到 滿足，那麼你得到少許收穫，便會感到雀躍不已。因此，持這種正面態度的人，無形中便增加了自己會得到幸福和快樂的機會了。
JKHC.
Gratitude is the corner stone of happiness as an ungrateful person will never be satisfied with what he or she already possesses. Being ungrateful will lead to an insatiable desire to covet everything one does not have. It will easily turn into greed. Because there are always more good things that one doesn't have than those that one has ( by definition good things must be scarce otherwise they would become average things if they can be found anywhere at any time ) the logical inference of this scenario is very straight forward. Ungrateful people will keep asking for more and this unreasonable expectation is the cause of endless unhappiness for themselves and for all those around them. On the contrary, if you are content with what you have any slight increase in your possession will be a cause for celebration and hence holding such a positive attitude will actually increase your potential for happiness.
感恩是幸福的基石，因為一個不識感恩的人，是永遠不會滿足於自己所擁有的一切。不識感恩，會使人孕育出一種無盡的慾望，去渴求自己未得到的東西。這也是貪 婪的開始。道理十分簡單，因為每一個人所擁有的美好東西，一定比其所擁有的不好東西為少的 （ 物以罕為貴，好的一定比壞的為少，因為這是好的定義 ）。由此推理，會得到簡單的邏輯結論。就是不感恩的人，必然貪得無厭，而因此令到自己和身邊的人，感到無盡的苦惱。相反，如果你對現在所擁有的一切，感到 滿足，那麼你得到少許收穫，便會感到雀躍不已。因此，持這種正面態度的人，無形中便增加了自己會得到幸福和快樂的機會了。
JKHC.
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