Monday, April 18, 2016

Crude oil prices still volatile - CNBC

Crude markets are poised to become more volatile as Saudi Arabia flexes its muscles in the region and seeks to turn the screws on U.S. and Iranian oil production, Again Capital partner John Kilduff said Monday.
Negotiations to freeze crude production at January levels fell apartover the weekend after Iran snubbed the gathering and top oil exporter Saudi Arabia refused to follow through with the deal without Tehran's participation.
Kilduff pinned the aggressive stand on Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Ahead of the Doha meeting, the 30-year-old prince said Saudi Arabia could increase production by 1 million barrels per day.

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"I think there's going to be one more beat down for prices that's really going to inflict the kind of pain the Saudis really want to [inflict] to the rest of the higher cost producers," Kilduff told CNBC's "Squawk Box."
OPEC's decision in 2014 to maintain high output levels rather than cut production to balance a market oversupplied by about 1.5 to 2 million bpd has been widely seen as a bid to pressure high-cost producers like U.S. shale oil drillers. U.S. production had surged through last year, contributing significantly to global oversupply.
The number of rigs in U.S. oil fields has fallen by nearly 80 percent from a peak of about 1,600 in October 2014 to roughly 350 last week. Oil production has fallen by about 600,000 bpd from a peak of nearly 9.7 million last year.
The Saudis are "not done with us yet. They are not done fixing our wagon yet," Kilduff said, referring to U.S. producers.

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The Saudis are also targeting its regional rival Iran, which has ramped up oil exports after sanctions on the country were lifted, he said.
While a strike among oil workers in Kuwait is temporarily supporting oil prices, the downward pressures on crude futures will be "intense" as the Saudis compete for market share with other producers, he added.
The last key to the further pressure on oil prices could be slowdown in crude demand following the International Monetary Fund's downward revision to its world growth forecast last week, Kilduff said.