Brexit vote makes united Ireland suddenly thinkable - Reuters

Protestant unionists are queuing for Irish passports in Belfast and once quiet Catholic nationalists are openly campaigning for a united Ireland, signs of deep shifts in the United Kingdom's most troubled province since Britain voted to leave the EU. 

Eighteen years after a peace deal ended decades of fighting between mainly Catholic nationalists who favor a united Ireland and mainly Protestant unionists who favor remaining part of the United Kingdom, Britain's Brexit vote is making people on both sides of the divide in Northern Ireland think the unthinkable.

Northern Ireland, like neighboring Scotland, voted to stay in the European Union, with 56 percent in favor, even though Britain as a whole voted to leave the bloc.

"I was always a 'small u' unionist. But I could not in all good conscience say I could vote for Northern Ireland to remain a member of the United Kingdom," said Christopher Woodhouse, a 25-year-old from Belfast. 

"I am softening to the idea of Irish unity, purely on economic issues," he said. "I am a European."

For years, a firm majority of people in Northern Ireland -- many Catholics as well as nearly all Protestants -- have favored continuing as part of the United Kingdom, drawn to the status quo as a guarantee of stability and prosperity.

But that has been jeopardized at a stroke by the prospect that Britain could quit the European Union and Scotland break away from the United Kingdom.

The Brexit referendum suggests a new center ground could form of people from both faith communities who fear the economic uncertainty of leaving the EU.

"People are saying for the first time in their life they would vote for united Ireland, having never contemplated it before," said Steven Agnew, the leader of the Green Party in Northern Ireland.

CORNERSTONE OF PEACE

The membership of both Ireland and Britain in the European Union was a cornerstone of the 1998 agreement that ended the fighting over whether the predominately Protestant six counties of northeast Ireland should be British or Irish.

EU rules ensure free trade and travel, and allow British or Irish citizens to work, claim benefits and be treated in hospitals in either country. People living on either side of the border may hold either passport or both, with little practical effect on how they are treated by either state.

Although Northern Irish citizens are entitled to passports from Ireland, many unionists would not apply for them. But there were several unionists in a queue seeking Irish passport application forms at the main post office in Belfast this week.

One said she was shocked and disappointed by the Brexit vote, and saw an Irish passport as the only way to retain her EU citizenship. None would give their names, as applying for an Irish passport can be controversial among unionists.

COSTS OF LEAVING 

Quitting the EU would have direct costs on a poor province that relies on it more than other parts of the United Kingdom.

Northern Ireland's largest bank, Ulster Bank, said uncertainty around the terms for Britain's exit from the EU could make Northern Ireland a "no-go zone" for some foreign direct investment. Brexit could cause lower growth, higher unemployment and cutbacks in government spending.

"My stomach is churning at all that's happening," said Robert McClenaghan, an Irish Republican Army member turned community worker, describing the potential loss of hundreds of millions of euros of EU funds for former militants, victims groups, and cross-community youth work.

"We are in danger of a return to conflict - at a low intensity level - if those funds are taken away," he said.

Many believe the biggest threat to the peace would be the appearance of some kind of border checks. The huge military checkpoints that dotted the border were dismantled in the wake of the peace deal.

Pro-Brexit politicians have said the Irish frontier would remain open once Britain leaves the EU, but Remain supporters say this would be impossible if Britain wants to limit migration from EU countries whose nationals are free to enter Ireland.

"If they put a border up, the dissidents will blow it up," said Sid Johnson, a 68-year-old unionist Leave voter shopping on Belfast's Shankill Road. If the police are forced to send in armed men to defend the posts, he said, escalation could be swift.

Under the peace deal, the largest nationalist party, Sinn Fein, co-rules the province with the unionist DUP, which campaigned for Britain to leave the EU.

Sinn Fein's party chairman pounced on the Brexit vote, saying it meant Britain had "forfeited any mandate to represent the interests of people here".

The party later cooled its rhetoric, with Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness saying a united Ireland referendum should be held "at some stage in the future". The party this week held the first of a series of rallies for a united Ireland. 

A united Ireland has been the cherished dream of Irish nationalists since Northern Ireland was formed by Britain to protect the large Protestant community in the island's northeast from the Catholic dominated state formed to the south in 1921. 

More than 3,600 people died in fighting between the late 1960s and late 1990s, between Catholics who said they were denied basic human rights and wanted to join Ireland and Protestants defending the union with Britain. 

Under the 1998 peace deal, the British government was given the power to call a referendum if it appears likely a majority of those voting would seek to form part of a united Ireland.

While higher birth rates among Catholics suggest they will become the majority in Northern Ireland within a generation, opinion polls have consistently shown as many as half of Catholics still favored the stability of the United Kingdom.

But if Brexit makes that Catholic support for the union slip away, a future referendum on Irish unification could be "very, very tight" said Peter Shirlow, head of the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool.

"Unionists would have to rely on Catholics not wanting to be part of a united Ireland. That has been the trend up to last Friday," he said. "But I think that trend is now changing."

(Writing by Conor Humphries; editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Peter Graff)

Brexit has exposed how ignorant the educated and cosmopolitan have become about modern Britain - Independent

The final verdict on 23 June 2016 will be pronounced a long way in the future. But future generations may ponder several issues.

The fact that the referendum was ever called will be a cause of bafflement. Conservative leader David Cameron pledged to hold the referendum to placate anti-EU sections of his own party and to out-flank a perceived challenge from Ukip. Given his frequent mention of the risks of Brexit, the wisdom of calling the referendum in the first place remains puzzling.

Cameron, who did much to make the Tories electable and won a famous victory, has gone, leaving behind a divided Conservative party. The Labour Party, too, is. The episode has also left behind a divided country, which will prove difficult to unite or even hold together.

The referendum debate was unedifying; The tone was shrill, lacking civility. The participation of respected analysts, commentators and supposedly non-political public officials brought them no credit. Facts were water-boarded to support partisan positions. A future of economic damnation and a revival of Empire outside the EU are equally illusory.

The response at the result among those who voted to remain is most interesting. The wilful ignorance of the affluent, educated and cosmopolitan on how divided and polarised British society has become is striking. The voting patterns mirrored divisions along the lines of class, economic standing, education, age, residence and ethnicity.

The debate was always between economics and sovereignty (in the guise of immigration and border control). Exaggerated claims of economic losses, based on macro-economic models which have failed repeatedly over recent years, to engender fear were rejected. Some UK regions reliant on exports to the EU voted strongly to leave. For the disenfranchised, the fruits of growth, investment and international trade remain unattainable. Threats – perceived or real – to jobs, and uncertainty about nationality, are powerful forces. The inconvenience of the non-EU line at immigration or the ability to own a holiday retreat on the continent does not concern those who have never had those opportunities.

READ MORE

In Europe, as in life, we cannot have everything we want

The failure of the economic arguments to sway the vote may spell the end of economic rationalism which began with Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.

It may be that the vote against the EU was, in part, a protest vote against the long-term changes in economic structure of the UK economy, which has destroyed many working and middle class lives. Insofar as the decision represents a retreat to economic nationalism and closed borders, it may highlight the diminishing appeal of globalisation.

Increasing scepticism about experts and expert advice may also be one longer term effect. The views of the governor of the Bank of England and the Archbishop of Canterbury were disregarded equally.

In a pivotal moment in the campaign, challenged to name a single expert who thought that Brexit would economically benefit Britain, Justice Secretary Michael Gove’s defiant response was that: “I think people in this country have had enough of experts.” The reality is that experts no longer relate to ordinary people.

Policy orthodoxy, such as free trade, de-industrialisation and, in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, austerity and unconventional monetary policy, have not benefitted large parts of the population. Ordinary people’s appetite for sacrifice in return for unquantified future benefits promised by experts has waned.

The gravitational pull of aspiration, central to Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan’s brand of conservatism, has faded as trickle-down economics has betrayed many people.

READ MORE

6 ways the Government can support the economy after Brexit

The immediate effects of the Brexit vote on currencies and interest rates were significant, but it will take time to see whether there are major casualties as a result of the usual highly leveraged bets. The decision to downgrade the UK’s credit rating to a (still very strong) AA will have little effect. The UK’s ability to meet its obligations has not changed.

The real economy and political effects will take time to emerge and is highly dependent on events not yet known. History will have to decide whether the vote was simply a mutiny on HMS Britannia or an influential decision on the shape of the modern world, the structure of society and values which resonate and lead to change in other countries.

If the latter proves correct, then the event will prove truly significant.

The Leave campaign may have won the vote but there is confusion about reshaping the UK’s relationship with the EU. Maintaining continued special access to European markets would require accepting many policies rejected by a majority of those who voted. The prospects of meaningful reform within the EU also seem remote.

Why the Tesla Crash Shouldn’t Put the Brakes On Driverless Cars - TIME

Why the Tesla Crash Shouldn’t Put the Brakes On Driverless Cars Posted: 01 Jul 2016 10:57 AM PDT Electric automaker Tesla is under investigation after what the company says is the first death of a driver using its “Autopilot” mode. That mode offers a limited form of autonomous driving, but requires drivers to remain attentive at the wheel in case they need to take over. The driver (or was he a “passenger”?–such are the many questions ahead as companies from Ford to Google race to deliver driverless technology) was Joshua D. Brown, who died May 7 after his Tesla Model S failed to spot a turning white truck against a bright sky, according to documents reviewed by the Associated Press. (The AP reported Friday that Brown had received eight speeding tickets over the past six years, though it’s unclear if excessive speed played a role in the incident.) Brown’s death is sure to exacerbate fears over driverless vehicles. But tragically, Brown was likely one of the somewhere around 90 people who died on roads that day and every day in the U.S. It does not have to be this way. To be sure, we are still far from having enough data to conclusively prove the relative safety of driverless cars versus those piloted by humans. But early estimates hold that tens of thousands of lives might be saved thanks to driverless technology. Why? Because computers have the potential to be far safer drivers than we are, as a TIME cover story earlier this year argued: [Driverless cars are] superior drivers. These words may grate in the sunburned left ears of car-loving Americans. But the computer is simply a better driver than a human. Better at keeping its eyes on other drivers; better at maintaining a steady cruising speed and thereby maximizing fuel efficiency; better at parsing GPS data, weather data, traffic data–any and all kinds of data, really–and better at making rapid-fire adjustments. The computer doesn’t get distracted by a spouse, kids or the jerk who just made an illegal lane change. It doesn’t sneak a glimpse at Snapchat, or fumble with a leaky burrito, or steer with its knees while playing air guitar. The computer couldn’t blink even if it wanted to. It never says yes to a fourth chardonnay, never convinces itself that weed improves its driving. Asking directions is a computer’s favorite activity, and unless ordered to, the computer never falls asleep. Driverless cars have a long way to go in terms of technology and policy alike. Many struggle in bad weather, for instance, and it’s unclear how they will be insured. But the potential payoff in terms of lives saved down the road means this is not a technology we should walk away from.

The Worst of the Brexit Fallout Is Still to Hit the U.K. - TIME

The Worst of the Brexit Fallout Is Still to Hit the U.K. Posted: 01 Jul 2016 09:38 AM PDT British Treasury Secretary George Osborne warned on Friday that the United Kingdom economy was exhibiting “clear signs of economic shock” in the wake of a majority of voters advocating to leave the European Union, signalling that the fallout from Brexit has begun in earnest. Clear signs of economic shock in aftermath of Leave vote. Will require supreme national effort but we can come through this challenge — George Osborne (@George_Osborne) July 1, 2016 There is indeed clear evidence for some of the shocks. The value of the pound has fallen from $1.49 to $1.33 since the vote, and the FTSE 250 group of U.K.-focused companies fell by more than 7% before staging a slight recovery. But it is not yet clear when the impact will filter down to ordinary people. One clear disadvantage for Britons already apparent is that buying dollars and euros is much more expensive, which will make holidays more costly. The devaluation of the pound will also increase the price of imported goods and anything made from them. John Van Reenen, head of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, said that Britain’s Brexit decision will have both short-term and long-term consequences. “There is a lot of uncertainty about the new arrangements, which will lead to less investment, slower growth, lower pay and higher unemployment. In the long run, we will not have the same access to the European single market, which will mean lower exports, less foreign investments. It will mean that we are all poorer.” Some effects will take months but others will be noticed in days, he said. “The effect on the pound is noticeable now and this will quickly be seen in the price of fruit and vegetables for example. Prices of goods that use foreign components will take longer to increase,” says Van Reenen. There are signs that property prices are set to fall. Singapore-based United Overseas Bank suspended loan applications for London residential properties because of fears that investors could lose money and find it difficult to repay loans. Major developers are also reviewing residential and commercial projects. Mark Farmer, chief executive of Cast, a real estate consultancy, told the Financial Times that most London real estate deals would be reexamined. “The centre of the storm is going to be commercial property and speculative residential for sale,” he said. “Anything that has planning consent that hasn’t been committed, or anything that [has construction ongoing] on site but is a phased project, is in harm’s way at the moment.” Falling property prices are unlikely to benefit ordinary homebuyers in a stuttering economy, Van Reenen says. “A lot of people might say that a fall in property prices is a good thing but the prices will be falling for a bad reason; because there is less money around, property will still be as unaffordable.” U.K. unemployment, which currently stands at 5.1%, is also expected to rise. Soon after the result of the referendum was announced, Siemens suspended plans to export wind turbine blades from a new factory in in the northeastern city of Hull. Juergen Maier, the Siemens UK chief executive, told the BBC that any investment decisions, especially relating to exporting to the E.U. would be “put on ice.” There were also reports of companies such as easyjet, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan moving headquarters or large numbers of staff from Britain to the E.U. The loss of such jobs combined with a reduction in economic activity, could lead to a decrease in government revenue and force it to cut spending, further depressing the economy. Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, said that many people would feel poorer and less secure. In a speech on Thursday, he said: “Today, uncertainty has meant an inchoate sense of economic insecurity for many people, despite generalised economic prosperity. Across the advanced economies, employment appears less secure, wages more subdued and inequality more pronounced.” The fallout from Brexit could also have a cumulative effect, leading to a vicious circle of consumers reacting to an economic slowdown by consuming less and thus exacerbating the slowdown. Van Reenen concluded: “With the pound falling, this will lead to higher import prices and the cost of living will go up. As our trade goes down this will lead to lower productivity and higher prices. When faced with a crisis, people cut down on demand, which has a multiplier effect leading to greater unemployment, and further pressure on demand.” Osborne said that overcoming the worst of the economic fallout would take a “supreme national effort.” Britain had better hope that whoever takes over from Prime Minister David Cameron in the autumn can rise to the challenge.