Sunday, February 4, 2018

Nuclear Posture Review: US wants smaller nukes to counter Russia - BBC News

Nuclear Posture Review: US wants smaller nukes to counter Russia
2 February 2018
The US nuclear force is based on land, sea and air-based weapons
The US military has proposed diversifying its nuclear arsenal and developing new, smaller atomic bombs, largely to counter Russia.
The latest thinking was revealed in a Pentagon policy statement known as the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR).
The US military is concerned Moscow sees US nuclear weapons as too big to be used - meaning they are no longer an effective deterrent.
Developing smaller nukes would challenge that assumption, it argues.
Low-yield weapons are smaller, less powerful bombs with a strength below 20 kilotons.
They are still devastating, however. The atomic bomb dropped on the Japanese city of Nagasaki at the end of World War Two had about the same explosive power, and killed more than 70,000 people.
Reality Check: Where are the world's nuclear weapons?
"Our strategy will ensure Russia understands that any use of nuclear weapons, however limited, is unacceptable," the document said.
US Deputy Secretary of Defence, Patrick Shanahan, said the country's nuclear arsenal had kept it safe for over 70 years.
"We cannot afford to let it become obsolete," he told a media briefing in Washington.
It is the first time since 2010 that the US military has outlined its perception of future nuclear threats.
The proposed "tactical" nukes would not increase America's arsenal, which is already considerable, but would repurpose existing warheads.
Nonetheless, critics have accused the Trump administration of challenging the spirit of non-proliferation agreements.
The NPR also highlights the White House's concerns about North Korea, China and Iran.
Good insurance, or a step towards nuclear war?
Analysis by Jonathan Marcus, BBC Defence and Diplomatic Correspondent
For the Trump Administration the goal of this review is to modernise and adapt the US nuclear arsenal for unsettled times.
The three main elements of America's nuclear forces - Land-based ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and air-delivered weapons - are to be extensively modernised.
These are programmes which actually began under the Obama Administration.
What is new is the perceived need for two new types of nuclear weapons to provide - in the words of US officials - "more flexible capabilities to give tailored deterrence".
These include the modification of some submarine-launched nuclear warheads to give a lower-yield or less powerful detonation, as well as bringing back sea-based nuclear cruise missiles.
US officials insist that this makes the US deterrent more credible and thus actually raises the nuclear threshold.
But critics worry that such weapons could blur the distinction between nuclear and non-nuclear systems, and actually make a nuclear war more likely.

Companies Are Losing Millions After #MeToo Allegations Like Kate Upton’s Claim Against Guess’ Paul Marciano - TIME Business

Posted: 02 Feb 2018 12:37 PM PST

Hours after Kate Upton used Twitter Thursday to accuse Guess co-founder Paul Marciano of using his power to “sexually and emotionally harass women,” the company’s shares dropped almost 18%.
Guess lost more than $250 million in market value in one day. Despite the company issuing a denial of Upton’s claims, shares continued to slide on Friday.
Upton’s allegations show that #metoo sexual misconduct claims can hurt company’s shares big time – even when those accused offer strenuous denials.
In the case of casino mogul Steve Wynn, the loss is in the billions.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Jan. 26 that Steve Wynn, the casino mogul and founder and CEO of Wynn Resorts, had been accused of sexual harassment and assault by several employees, including one allegation that lead to a $7.5 million settlement. In a statement to the Journal, Wynn denied the allegations.
A denial from Wynn didn’t stop the damage to his company. Shares for Wynn Resorts fell by 10% on the day that the Journal published its story and another 9% on Jan. 29, shaving off about $3.5 billion of the company’s value, according to FortuneWynn lost $412 million of his net worth.
Upton, who has modeled for the fashion brand, first made her claims against Marciano in a Twitter post on Thursday, writing: “It’s disappointing that such an iconic women’s brand @GUESS is still empowering Paul Marciano as their creative director #metoo.” She then posted a screenshot of her tweet on Instagram, adding the caption: “He shouldn’t be allowed to use his power in the industry to sexually and emotionally harass women #metoo.” Upton did not respond to TIME’s request for comment.
Marciano, who did not respond to TIME’s request for comment, denied the claims. He told TMZ that he didn’t know what Upton’s allegations were, and said that “if she has a claim, there’s one place to tell the truth and that’s in court or to the police.”
In an SEC filing on Thursday, the company said: “Mr. Marciano denies any misconduct toward Ms. Upton,” but said the company would investigate her allegations. It also said that it had investigated, with the help of outside counsel, claims from two other women, which were published on Jan. 31 on entertainment website The Blast. It said Marciano also denied those allegations and that the company was unable to substantiate the claims.
Steve Wynn Bloomberg – Bloomberg via Getty ImagesBillionaire Steve Wynn, chairman and chief executive officer of Wynn Resorts Ltd.Wynn, in responding to sexual misconduct claims in the Journal said in a statement: “The idea that I ever assaulted any woman is preposterous. We find ourselves in a world where people can make allegations, regardless of the truth, and a person is left with the choice of weathering insulting publicity or engaging in multi-year lawsuits. It is deplorable for anyone to find themselves in this situation.”
But some companies who have had prominent employees face allegations of sexual harassment haven’t seen their stock prices take a hit. Marketwatch noted that CBSNetflix and Amazon’s stock prices remained steady after prominent employees were accused of sexual misconduct.
Sexual harassment allegations have cost companies in other ways beyond share prices. In May 2017, Fox News said it had paid $45 million related to litigation costs related to sexual harassment allegations. Netflix reportedly lost $39 million for cutting ties with Kevin Spacey, who was accused of sexual misconduct by several men. (Spacey apologized and said he didn’t remember the first allegation, made by actor Anthony Rapp, but hasn’t commented on subsequent allegations.)

Trump using kind of 'racist language and terrifying expressions of popular nationalism' that helped start First World War, historian Dan Snow warns - Independent

2/2/2018
Trump using kind of 'racist language and terrifying expressions of popular nationalism' that helped start First World War, historian Dan Snow warns
Adam Lusher
The 39-year-old said the President might benefit from reading the works of soldier and poet Wilfred Owen Alamy
Donald Trump is using the same kind of “overtly racist language” and “terrifying expressions of popular nationalism” that helped start the First World War, a leading historian has warned.
Dan Snow, who has presented numerous history documentaries for the BBC, cautioned that Mr Trump was “talking again about great power conflict almost as if it was desirable, almost as a cleansing experience that would be good for American manhood”.
As he helped launch a poetry competition inspired by the poets who exposed the horrors of the First World War, Snow told The Independent: “When Trump merrily talks about nuking North Korea, when he threatens violence and talks about the size of his nuclear arsenal, we absolutely should remember the war poets.
“We should remember that those young men who marched away to war in 1914 suffered the most appalling things you could ever imagine – and they did so because morose old men were worried about national status.”
Trump's America First doctrine will destroy the United Nations
Snow also suggested that the US President might himself benefit from reading the works of war poets like Siegfried Sassoon and Wilfred Owen.
“Donald Trump,” said Snow, “Can benefit from sitting down and reading any book, but he can certainly benefit from reading Wilfred Owen.”
Snow also said that because of the way in which “the norms of democracy and rule of law are being eroded” in the US, Mr Trump presented a “huge problem” for Brexit.
Questioning the value of leaving the EU instead of working towards closer co-operation with Europe, the historian added: “When you read the war poets, you are not left with a huge affection for a world in which very powerful nation states quarrelled with each other for economic, political and social gain.”
Snow will chair the panel of judges for the new A Poem to Remember competition, which is inspired by the poets of the First World War and seeks to discover the next generation of poets who can reflect on humankind’s ability to triumph over adversity.
Open to anyone over 17, the competition will celebrate the opening of the new Defence and National Rehabilitation Centre for wounded Armed Forces personnel. The winning poem will be read out by Prince William at the opening of the new rehabilitation centre and will also receive £2,000.
It is being launched 100 years after the end of the 1914-18 conflict, but Snow said there were similarities between Mr Trump’s rhetoric and the late 19th and early 20th century nationalism that helped push the world into war in 1914.
The war poets, he said, had taught that “We should be very wary about answering the call from aged male politicians to hurl ourselves into battle. Frankly if we had seen more of that and less nationalism in Donald Trump’s recent State of the Union address, I would have been happy.
“Like his inauguration address, it was a terrifying expression of popular nationalism.”
Snow said that parts of Mr Trump’s State of the Union address were “straightforward 19th century nationalism”.
“I find that very worrying,” said Snow.
Donald Trump falsely links violent crime to immigration in State of the Union address
He added: “There are important similarities with 1914. One is [Mr Trump’s] use of overtly racist language. He has called Mexicans rapists. It was absolutely normal before the outbreak of World War One to regard Slavs and Teutons and these various groups made up by 19th century nationalists as inferior human beings.
“You have got Trump questioning the legitimacy of a judge because he is of Mexican descent. He is ‘othering’ Mexicans in a big way and people with brown skin: ‘s***hole countries’ and all that sort of stuff. That use of racist language is very similar to 1914.
“That doesn’t mean we are about to have another First World War, but it does mean we should be vigilant.”
Professional historians, he explained, may be devoted to studying the past, but they still had a duty to warn about what light it might shed on present concerns.
He said: “I think some historians have forgotten the purpose of why we study these things. We all sit around at these remembrance services. We all talk about the importance of remembering and making sure it never happens again.
“Part of that, presumably, is saying ‘I am a bit concerned about this’.”
While clarifying that Mr Trump was not a fascist, Snow compared the US President to Benito Mussolini, Italy’s dictator during the Second World War and said: “We need to talk about Trump within the context of right-wing populist supermen – and that means mentioning him in the same sentence as Mussolini.
“No-one is saying he is about to invade North Africa [as Mussolini did when he sent Italian troops into Abyssinia in 1935]. But there are concerning tropes there.”
Snow added: “It is grotesque that despite all the advances humankind has made, despite us having the ability to land a robot on a comet and communicate with it, our politics are still being conducted as they were 2,500 years ago.
“It is very easy to imagine Trump as a demagogue in the Athenian assembly, preying on people’s prejudices, appealing to their baser instincts, showing them a false vision.”
In a reference to Mr Trump’s avoidance of the draft for the Vietnam war, Snow added that when you heard the President talking about sacrifice, “remember that his family has never sacrificed anything at all. Despite being given ample opportunity to serve or go into battle, they have always declined”.
What Mr Trump was doing to the US, the historian said, also presented great difficulties for those trying to push through Brexit.
Snow said: “Trump is a huge problem for Brexit. An America First ethno-nationalist state in which the norms of democracy and rule of law are being eroded is a big problem [to] the whole idea that we would always have this Anglo-Saxon, liberal free-trade America to fall back on.
“It’s kind of embarrassing if, as it seems, we actually have more in common with [Angela] Merkel and [Emmanuel] Macron.”
Questioning the purpose of Brexit, Snow added: “Britain is – or was – the fifth largest economy in the world.
“What is the crushing problem that the very well-heeled and wealthy Brexiteers want to solve?
“It seems to me that in a very unconservative way they risk radical destabilisation of what is – from a historical point of view – an incredibly secure and stable society, and, even weirder, a society in which fantastically rich people have got total legitimacy. No-one goes down Jermyn Street in London firebombing shops.
“What do these fantastically wealthy people – on both sides of the Atlantic – want?”
Dan Snow: The TV historian on Scottish nationalism and why getting
Last night's viewing- A History of Syria with Dan Snow, BBC2;
Dan Snow: History boy
Donald Trump's immigration remarks met by huge backlash
To the suggestion that they were determined to secure British sovereignty, Snow replied: “If you are on a desert island, you have absolute sovereignty, but no ability to do anything with it at all.
“When you are a smaller player, albeit one that is sovereign, you have less power.
“We will be even more vulnerable to corporations and big lobbies. It comes down to the old classic: why does Rupert Murdoch hate the EU so much? Because they listen to him in London, but they don’t listen to him in Brussels.”
“British policy makers,” the historian added, “Have spent 2,000 years trying to interfere in Europe because they have realised that what happens in Europe affects us.
“We got Protestantism, physics and the printing press from Europe.
“You have two choices with Europe: one is to get on the front foot and go into Europe and try to influence it, as Alfred the Great, Elizabeth Tudor, William Pitt the elder and Margaret Thatcher did.
“Or you sit and wait for Europe to resolve these things and they hit your shores whether you like it or not.”

When Two Tribes Go to War - To Trump’s supporters, even a Republican like Mueller is suddenly suspect - Intelligencer ( New York Magazine )


February 2, 2018
When Two Tribes Go to War
By
Andrew Sullivan
To Trump’s supporters, even a Republican like Mueller is suddenly suspect.
The problem with tribalism is that it knows no real limiting principle.
It triggers a deep and visceral response: a defense of the tribe before all other considerations. That means, in its modern manifestation, that the tribe comes before the country as a whole, before any neutral institutions that get in its way, before reason and empiricism, and before the rule of law. It means loyalty to the tribe — and its current chief — is enforced relentlessly. And this, it seems to me, is the underlying reason why the investigation into Russian interference in the last election is now under such attack and in such trouble. In a tribalized society, there can be no legitimacy for an independent inquiry, indifferent to tribal politics. In this fray, no one is allowed to be above it.
On the face of it, of course, no one even faintly patriotic should object to investigating how a foreign power tried to manipulate American democracy, as our intelligence agencies have reported. And yet one party is quite obviously doing all it can to undermine such a project — even when it is led by a Republican of previously unimpeachable integrity, Robert Mueller. Tribalism does not spare the FBI; it cannot tolerate an independent Department of Justice; it sees even a Republican like Mueller as suspect; and it sees members of another tribe as incapable of performing their jobs without bias.
The release of the Nunes memo is just the latest, deeply dangerous manifestation of this. Congressman Nunes saw his task, from the get-go, not as investigating the underlying issue as a congressman concerned with the integrity of elections, but as finding a way to protect his tribal chieftain, Donald Trump, from suspicions that his own campaign might have invited such intervention, or that he might have obstructed justice to stymie Mueller’s inquiry. The entire concept of digging fairly into the facts to discover exactly what relationship, if any, the Trump campaign had with agents of the Russian government is close to meaningless to Nunes. So is any cooperation with Democrats or waiting until the full investigation is finished. More to the point, all this is meaningless to the Republican base as well. Their tribal chief has said there was no Russian interference and no collusion, and that’s all they need to know.
And since they already know the truth, the only point of such an investigation must be an Establishment attack on their own tribe, right? Before too long, even Jeff Sessions was regarded as a traitor, by recusing himself from intervention in the matter. Ditto Rod Rosenstein, another Republican pressured to give Trump personal, and not institutional, loyalty at the DOJ. Mueller himself, of course, is now described by his fellow Republicans as an agent of the deep state, mired in liberal sabotage. James Comey was summarily fired, and even Trump’s handpicked FBI chief, Christopher Wray, is now suspect, because he believes the Nunes memo is deeply misleading and may even compromise national security. The FBI had to be intending to frame Trump, after all, when it surveilled Carter Page’s troubling contacts with Moscow. What other reason could there be? And the media’s reporting of any of these developments is, of course, “fake news” born out of a conspiracy so vast that, well, take it away, Newt: “The elite media group has survived by being in collusion with the senior bureaucracy, the city of Washington, the senior reporters, the senior bureaucrats, the senior lobbyists, they all hang out together, they all talk to each other, they all compare notes.”
Note the C-word. If Trump is accused of collusion, the gambit is to accuse the FBI, the media, and the DOJ of some sort of “collusion” as well. If Trump is exposed as evading the rule of law, so now must the Justice Department and the FBI be seen as undermining it. The logic here is pure Roy Cohn. Bret Stephens made a devastating and completely unanswerable point this week about how differently the GOP would react if these attempts to evade or obstruct justice had been made by a President Hillary Clinton — but to the tribal mind, none of that matters. And the tactics Cohn once deployed are now all around us: throw back the exact same charges you’re facing against those investigating you. Invent a conspiracy theory to rival a collusion theory. Throw sand in everyone’s eyes. Get your allegations out first, in as inflammatory and scandalous a way as possible. Ransack people’s private lives and communications to more effectively demonize them.
Dominate the news cycles. Do anything to muddy the conflict and to sow suspicion. Lie, if you have to. Exercise not the slightest concern for the stability of the system as a whole — because tribe comes first. Trump, to make things worse, sees no distinction between the tactics he deployed as a private citizen in lawsuits for decades and the tactics he is deploying as president, because he has no conception of a presidency committed first of all to the long-term maintenance of the system rather than the short-term pursuit of personal interest. He simply cannot see the value of institutions that might endure through time, under both parties, as a way to preserve objective fact-finding and the neutral enforcement of justice. All he sees is his own immediate interest, as filtered through his malignant narcissism. Some thought this might change when he became president and realized the gravity of the office. We know now how delusional that idea was.
Many commentators, of course, see all these various gambits at obstructing justice as endangering Trump, as Mueller closes in. Some believe that the public reaction to this overreach will be punishing, especially if serious wrongdoing emerges, and that impeachment could follow. I’m afraid I don’t see this. In fact, I see tribalism deepening and the constitutional crisis intensifying. It’s quite clear now that the GOP has thrown itself in completely with the Trump movement. (Paul Ryan is pledging to “cleanse” the FBI!) The tax bill has become proof, in their eyes, of the potential success of this strategy. They think they can hold back a Democratic wave in November by rallying the tribe behind their leader, and by giving an economy at peak employment a stimulus of over $1 trillion in tax cuts. And, for all their cynicism and fiscal irresponsibility, they may be right.
Since the tax law passed, the Democratic lead in the generic congressional polling has been more than halved from 13 points to a mere 6. Trump’s own approval ratings were negative 20 points in mid-December. Now they are negative 15. Still terrible, I know, but it’s the direction I’m concerned about. Pretty soon, most middle-class workers will also find their take-home pay slightly higher because of the tax law — while Democrats repeatedly told them they would get nothing. In December, according to the Monmouth poll, only 26 percent supported the GOP’s tax legislation. Now that number is 44 percent — a pretty staggering leap. As I recently noted, wages in manufacturing and construction are also finally moving upward. If you keep an eight-year recovery going artificially — through massive deregulation and tax cuts — the very bottom of the workforce is going to feel the dividends simply because of supply and demand. And they will react accordingly.
Check out this AP story on reactions to the slight pay gains: “Wayne Love, who works in managed care in Spring Hill, Florida, got an extra $200 in his paycheck last week, which he said will help offset a $300 increase in the cost of his health insurance. ‘I have heard time and again that the middle class is getting crumbs, but I’ll take it!’ Love said by email.” How many more people are going to feel the same way in the coming months?
There’s also a chance that the first-quarter numbers for growth this year could be dramatically higher than the last quarter: the Atlanta Fed just predicted a growth rate of 5.4 percent. Can you imagine how shamelessly Trump will tout that? I think these tax cuts are extraordinarily fiscally irresponsible, and are already creating a bubble. But if the bubble doesn’t burst before Election Day this year, whatever Mueller finds may well be moot. There isn’t a crime the Trump administration might have committed that will lead to any consequences in a Congress where either chamber has a Republican majority.
Meanwhile, the Democrats’ tribalism has also deepened. They picked an iconic tribal name to present their response to the SOTU, Joe Kennedy, and his speech had the failed theme that Hillary Clinton tried out last year: “stronger together.” Beneath that façade was the usual shout-out to the various identity groups who now dominate the Democratic discourse: He praised those pledging to “tear down” a future wall on the southern border; he endorsed Black Lives Matter; he cited the left-feminist women’s marches; he spoke directly in excellent Spanish, as if to taunt Republicans concerned about a changing culture; he invoked #MeToo (ballsy for a Kennedy, I know); he even gave a shout-out to the parents of transgender kids. The Rainbow Coalition is now ever more indistinguishable from mainstream Democratic politics, as the Dems find themselves defending more porous borders, and designating any position to the right of them on immigration as “racist.” Race in general is a theme that is deepening: “In 2011, Democrats agreed that generations of slavery and discrimination have made it difficult for black people to experience upward mobility by a net 15 points (i.e., 15 percent more Democrats agreed than disagreed with that statement). In 2016, that more than doubled to 38 points.” And this is happening as the GOP becomes ever more the party of whites and men.
We are in a different zero-sum political world. This is a tribal scorched-earth war, underpinned by racial and gender divides, thriving regardless of the consequences for our democratic institutions, discourse, and way of life. And if we once thought with confidence that one tribe would come back in the midterms, and somehow moderate this, we may be forced soon to reconsider. I know my pessimism is deep. I just long for evidence that it is misplaced.
Guilty Until Proven Innocent
It was interesting to see last week that the political journalist Ryan Lizza, formerly of The New Yorker, was reinstated by CNN as a commentator after a six-week investigation of a charge of sexual misconduct against him. I mention this because it appears to be the first case in which someone summarily fired and disgraced in the sex panic of last year has subsequently been cleared of all charges by a cautious news organization with absolutely no interest in getting on the wrong side of the workplace-harassment debate.
So what exactly happened? It seems we’ll never know. Lizza (a former colleague and friend) was first impugned by the anonymous spreadsheet, the Shitty Media Men list, as the purveyor of “creepy DMs.” But we still have no idea what those DMs might have contained. We also don’t know what Lizza was actually charged with at The New Yorker; who made the accusation; and how The New Yorker was able to conclude that Lizza had to be dismissed within days, while a six-week investigation by CNN found nothing incriminating. All of this remains in a haze. I’ll just note that the coverage of Lizza’s sacking was massive; his reinstatement barely got a mention in Erik Wemple’s Washington Post blog. A cloud still therefore hangs over his reputation, fairly or unfairly. Guilty until proven innocent seems to be the guiding principle here. For anyone concerned with simple due process — and the prevention of real sexual harassment — this should be worrying.
The Delinquent President
A while back, as so many on the right pooh-poohed the idea that Trump was a threat to the Constitution, I asked if there were circumstances in which he might simply refuse to enforce the law as written by the Congress, if the margin were veto-proof. He had largely obeyed various court rulings, which was a relief, even if he routinely demonized individual judges and courts. But we had only one instance of the Congress passing a measure by such a huge margin that he had no wiggle room but to do something he didn’t want to do. That instance was a renewed tightening of sanctions against Russia that passed the Congress by veto-proof margins in the wake of the unprecedented attack on our democracy by the Russian government in 2016. The law passed by a majority of 98–2 in the Senate and by 419–3 in the House. Trump grumpily signed it.
Then, we found out this week, the president did nothing to follow through. He simply ignored the law, as I suspected he would. Senator McCaskill called it a constitutional crisis. Strictly speaking, it isn’t, because the law included a provision that the president could make exceptions at his discretion if he believed national security was at stake. So technically, Trump is in the clear. But more broadly? The intent of the law could not have been clearer: a near-unanimous congressional signal that the U.S. took Russian meddling in its own elections to be a major breach that would lead to serious consequences. The Trump administration subsequently simply refused to perform this constitutional duty. Trump is characterologically incapable of taking instructions from anyone, including Congress. His White House even made a mockery of the intent of the law by hurriedly publishing a list of oligarchs it might sanction — by cribbing it off a Forbes magazine article! And this all came to light immediately after the CIA director, Mike Pompeo, announced that Russia was once again gearing up to intervene in the midterm elections as well. Is Trump taking this threat seriously — or is he quietly hoping the Russians will help the GOP?
This may seem a minor matter. Except it isn’t. A massive attack on our democracy took place in the last election. Nothing, so far as we can see, has been done by this administration to prevent this in the future. The Congress’s bid to punish Moscow has now been sidelined by a president unwilling to perform his constitutional duties. When the president is already suspected of having had ties with the Russian government during an election when that government tried to tilt the results to Trump, his refusal to obey Congress’s specific intent to punish Moscow is more than troubling. Can we truly expect this presidency to exist within the framework the Founders constructed? Can we trust our elections anymore? Or is tribalism getting closer and closer to something we used to call treason?