What Slump? How Eurozone Growth is Bucking the Global Trend
Unusually, the eurozone is leading the way, strong first-quarter growth bodes well for the year
Economic growth in the eurozone in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter was 0.6%, or 2.2% annualized, exceeding estimates by analysts.
By RICHARD BARLEY
April 29, 2016 8:37 a.m. ET
The eurozone has provided investors with plenty of surprises in the past few years, most of them unpleasant. The economic data released Friday make for a refreshing change.
Eurozone growth in the first quarter versus the fourth came in at 0.6%, or 2.2% annualized. That was better than economists expected. It was also better than first-quarter growth in the U.S. and U.K., although the eurozone remains a laggard overall, with real gross domestic product only just above its precrisis peak. Meanwhile, unemployment continued to fall, reaching 10.2% in March, down 1 percentage point from a year ago. The only fly in the ointment was inflation, which dipped back into negative territory at an estimated minus 0.2% in April.
There is a caveat on growth: this is the first time Eurostat has released such an early estimate of first-quarter GDP, and as such it may be revised. Details are still missing, with no growth estimates publicly available for Germany and Italy in particular, which together account for 45% of the eurozone economy. However, the headline number does suggest decent performance. France and Spain posted strong numbers, with the former recording the biggest jump in household spending since the end of 2004. Domestic demand looks to be driving the recovery.,
The performance of the economy is in contrast to the nerves that infected European markets in the first quarter. The end of March saw the Stoxx Europe 600 down some 7.7% for the year, and 10-year German yields nearly half a percentage point lower than at the end of 2015. There was even a panic about eurozone banks, with violent swings in prices for subordinated bonds that count toward capital—although this was a crisis more about investors’ assumptions than the banks themselves.
True, growth may not be sustainable at the first quarter’s pace, as it appears to be well above trend. The European Commission, for instance, thinks potential annual growth is just 1% in 2016-2017. Even so, there could be upgrades of the eurozone’s prospects rather than downgrades: BNP Paribas, for instance, notes there are “upside risks” to its 1.3% full-year forecast.
The upshot should be a period of calm in monetary policy, too. The European Central Bank unveiled new measures in March and accompanied them with a plea to allow time for them to take effect. Friday’s data suggest that is the right approach to take. The eurozone, for now at least, is bucking the global gloom on growth.
Write to Richard Barley at richard.barley@wsj.c
Sunday, May 1, 2016
Here’s How Snapchat Might Be Beating Facebook - Fortune
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Posted: 29 Apr 2016 08:40 AM PDT
Snapchat users are gobbling up more and more new videos on the social media app every day, the company says. How many? Oh, just 10 billion a day, Snapchat tells Bloomberg. That’s an impressive growth streak for the company that started out as a simple way to share disappearing selfies with friends. Snapchat had less than half that video traffic a year ago: The company had about 4 billion video views a day in April of last year (as the Financial Timesreported), a number that jumped to 6 billion in November, and then 8 billion in February, matching Facebook’s latest video numbers. Apparently, the war for video-watching eyeballs is on. Facebook is also making a new push for more eyes-on-screens with its new livestreams, which debuted late last year. Snapchat is betting more on its “stories” feature to grab eyeballs. In stories, “snappers” can string a series of short 10-second-or-less video clips together. Stories can be watched for 24 hours on the app before they disappear (like most everything Snapchat). The company has also been using more of its video stories to publish short news bites: Snapchat debuted a new political show about this year’s presidential race, and the “discover” feature lets news outlets like CNN and Buzzfeed post their own short videos on the app. Though it certainly doesn’t have the more than a billion active users that Facebook does, Snapchat is arguably becoming the social media of choice for some of the youngest app users: The company says more than 60% of American smartphone users between the ages of 13 and 34 use the disappearing photo and video-sharing app. And among teenagers the app beats out every other social media, including Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
But Snapchat’s latest video boast may still be a bit of a brag: Snapchat considers a video “viewed” as soon as someone starts watching. Facebook, on the other hand, counts a video as “viewed” after it’s been watched for three seconds, still just a flash compared to the 30 seconds required for an old-school YouTube video view.
This article originally appeared on Fortune.com |
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