Europe’s Bad Boy Has a Fight on His Hands - Bloomberg

Europe’s Bad Boy Has a Fight on His Hands

The re-election of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban might not be a formality after all.

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March 7, 2018, 3:00 PM GMT+11

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the self-styled godfather of the European populist boom that’s now upended Italy, isn’t used to defeats.

So when voters in a small agricultural city overwhelmingly voted for an opponent for mayor for the first time in 20 years on Feb. 25, it sent shockwaves through the political establishment. No poll had predicted such a rebellion by voters complaining of rampant cronyism, much less in a stronghold of Orban’s party.

Viktor Orban during the 2017 Judo World Championships in Budapest, also attended by Vladimir Putin.Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg

The question is whether it marked a setback or sea change for Orban, a rare European ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, after dominating Hungary since returning to power eight years ago. It’s a month away from parliamentary elections that had been expected to be a formality. Defeat for Orban –- or even a narrow win –- would reverberate from Moscow to Brussels.

The opposition parties smell an upset if they can manage to work together, and politicians who have formerly ruled out cooperation are now huddling to bridge their differences. Orban is on the defensive, his Fidesz party playing up his economic achievements.

“The lesson is that Fidesz can be beaten anywhere if the opposition backs one candidate,” Peter Marki-Zay, the new mayor of the city of Hodmezovasarhely, said at his office days after his victory. “The dam burst here and for that to happen it had to happen in a place like Hodmezovasarhely where Fidesz seemed invincible.” He himself voted for Orban in 2010.

Europe’s Rogue

Orban, 54, has made a name in the European Union selling his “illiberal state” as an alternative to the mainstream.

He backed Donald Trump for the U.S. presidency and his efforts to shut out refugees won plaudits from populist parties in western Europe and political bedfellows in Poland and the Czech Republic. He endorsed Silvio Berlusconi and hosted Giorgia Meloni, the leader of Brothers of Italy, a party with fascist roots that’s part of Berlusconi’s alliance now jockeying to form a government.

With Russia and Turkey as models, Orban used a two-thirds majority in parliament to unilaterally rewrite laws and dismantle effective checks on his power over EU objections. He appointed friends and allies to run the courts, central bank and audit office. He opened the way for the enrichment of a new class of wealthy businessmen with political connections to the ruling party.

Orban built a steel fence along the border with Serbia to keep out refugees.Photographer: Atilla Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images

Few places had been more loyal to Orban than Hodmezovasarhely, whose 45,000 population religiously backed Fidesz. In the historic city built on agriculture, men and women of all ages, professionals and farmers, cited a climate of fear and intimidation.

“Corruption is out of control and people are afraid to speak out,” said Ferenc, 46, pushing a bike across the city’s snow-covered main square that’s dominated by the soaring neo-Renaissance tower of city hall.

Hungary has slipped down the rankings in Transparency International’s annual survey of corruption. It was 66th last year, above only Bulgaria in the EU and down from 48th in 2014 when Orban won his third term in power. The government in Budapest said the results reflected bias against the two EU countries that opposed immigration and had built fences on their borders.

Ferenc said he quit the state-owned company where he worked because of the cronyism he saw around him and was now looking for a job. He declined to give his full name, fearing retaliation for his views.

Whether the disparate opposition can harness that kind of sentiment is a big ask. Those needing to cooperate range from liberal parties to Jobbik, which is rebranding itself from a far-right group to a pro-EU party.

Orban knows better than anyone that polls showing his party with a hefty lead -- some put Fidesz’s support equal to the six biggest opposition parties combined -- may mean little if those opposed to him back a single candidate in the country’s 106 electoral districts.

That’s where the majority of seats in the 199-seat parliament will be decided, with the rest based on national party lists. Orban, a former student activist taking on the communist regime, became premier for the first time in 1998 after he convinced parties opposed to the former communists to withdraw their candidates, most of them in his favor.

Orban called Hodmezovasarhely an “alarm bell” for Fidesz and predicted last week that opposition parties would overcome their differences to back a single candidate in all districts. A Bloomberg review of previous voting showed that Fidesz would have won just 20 districts in 2014 had all opposition votes gone to a joint candidate.

Still, an agreement to rally behind a single opponent of Orban everywhere is a long shot, according to Robert Laszlo, an analyst at Political Capital in Budapest. The government can also count on a resurgent economy to win over voters, with unemployment at a record low, economic growth at a three year-high and wages surging by double-digits thanks in part of a dire labor shortage.

Peter Marki-Zay in his office in city hall, Hodmezovasarhely.Photographer: Zoltan Simon/Bloomberg

But that didn’t seem to sway voters in Hodmezovasarhely, who complained of the difficulty in making ends meet and pointed to the spectacular wealth accumulation they saw around them.

In one of his first moves as mayor-elect, Marki-Zay uploaded the municipal contract of a lighting company where the EU reportedly found evidence of fraud.

The company, Elios, was previously owned by Orban’s son-in-law and it was signed under the mayorship of Janos Lazar, now the minister overseeing the disbursement of EU funds. Lazar, who also heads the spy services, is the district’s parliamentary representative and is running for another term. Elios and Lazar have denied any wrongdoing.

As Laszlo, the analyst, put it after the result in Hodmezovasarhely: “It's a whole new ballgame.”

— With assistance by Andras Gergely, and Samuel Dodge

Cohn's Exit Leaves Hard-Liners Ascendant in Trump White House - Bloomberg

Cohn's Exit Leaves Hard-Liners Ascendant in Trump White House

By , , and

March 7, 2018, 8:00 PM GMT+11

Economic adviser departing after a showdown over tariffs

Wilbur Ross, Peter Navarro expected to gain influence on trade

Gary Cohn’s departure from the White House is a victory for the protectionists and immigration hawks who have sought to push President Donald Trump to fully embrace their views.

The former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. president said Tuesday he would resign after what had become a bitter and personal dispute within the White House over Trump’s plan to slap steep tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. His departure is a victory for figures who have sought to expunge the Trump administration of advocates for free trade and globalization, principles that have long been a hallmark of the Washington establishment.

A registered Democrat, Cohn was regarded as one of the few political moderates close to the president. His absence will amplify voices like Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and trade adviser Peter Navarro who back the president’s impulses to buck convention and pick trade fights on a global stage.

Cohn also served as a counterbalance to figures like senior adviser Stephen Miller and chief of staff John Kelly, who have pushed Trump to the right on immigration -- and worked to keep him there -- and have encouraged the president’s forays into the culture wars.

The impact of Cohn’s departure was only magnified by the exceptional month of West Wing turnover and turmoil that preceded it.

Porter, Hicks

Rob Porter, the establishment Republican staff secretary who controlled the flow of paper to the Resolute Desk, left after his two ex-wives publicly accused him of abuse. Hope Hicks, the longtime Trump whisperer, resigned as communications director. National security adviser H.R. McMaster has held discussions about returning to the Pentagon. And son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner has seen his influence curtailed because of his inability to gain a permanent security clearance and the departure of top aides earlier this year.

Investors, spooked by Cohn’s exit, were seen bracing for the impact in after-hours trading. The greenback fell 0.4 percent against the yen, often a haven in turmoil, to 105.66 as of 7:48 a.m. in Tokyo trading. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF trust, linked to the S&P 500 Index of stocks, was down 1.2 percent.

Officials familiar with Cohn’s departure said his resignation was the culmination of his aggressive campaign to persuade Trump to abandon his proposed steel and aluminum tariffs, even after the president made his snap announcement last Thursday.

Canceled Meeting

Joined by McMaster, Cohn had argued repeatedly and passionately to Trump that the tariffs on imported metals would damage the relationship between the U.S. and its closest allies while threatening to erase some of the benefits of $1.5 trillion tax cut legislation the president signed into law late last year.

Cohn had organized a meeting at the White House later this week where he planned for the president to hear directly from executives of industries that consume the metals, such as automakers. The meeting was canceled after Cohn announced his resignation. The meeting will go forward, but with Vice President Mike Pence instead of Trump, according to a person familiar with the executives’ communications.

The gulf between the president and Cohn was made plain in a dramatic trade policy meeting on Tuesday in the Oval Office.

As aides discussed the logistics of making the president’s proposed 25 percent tariff on steel and 10 percent tariff on aluminum official, Trump sought confirmation from his advisers that he had their support.

According to two people with knowledge of the exchange, Trump specifically asked Cohn: We’re all on the same team, right? He then asked if Cohn supported the decision.

Cohn didn’t answer, the people said. A senior White House official disputed that Trump asked directly for Cohn’s support and didn’t recall Trump’s remark about being on the same team.

Cohn agreed with Trump that the U.S. should take a tougher stance toward China, but believed metals tariffs that also hit Canada, Mexico and the European Union are counterproductive, the official said.

The senior official said that Cohn had told the president in February that he felt underused and that he should have a larger role in the White House -- and if that wasn’t possible, he would consider leaving. Cohn plans to stay until the end of the month to help Trump choose a new economic adviser, and would consider returning to the administration for a larger role such as a Cabinet post, the official said.

On Tuesday evening, Trump wrote on Twitter that he would soon make a decision on a replacement. "Many people wanting the job -- choose wisely," he said.

Trump’s Frustrations

The episode is the latest indication that the president is frustrated by those in his administration whom he perceives as attempting to forestall or delay his aspirations.

Less than a week ago, Trump lashed out at Attorney General Jeff Sessions for asking the Justice Department inspector general to investigate claims of surveillance abuse that Trump regards as validation that the investigation into possible collusion between his campaign and Russia is politically motivated. Trump called the move “DISGRACEFUL!” on Twitter and questioned why Sessions hadn’t referred the case to criminal investigators.

The previous month, the president reacted sharply when Kelly said he had “changed his attitude” on whether Mexico would directly pay for a wall spanning the entirety of the southern U.S. border. A tentative deal with congressional Democrats to protect those who immigrated to the U.S. illegally as children -- called “Dreamers” by their advocates --collapsed after the president tacked on a string of conservative demands, at the urging of Kelly and Miller.

And Trump has been similarly frustrated when foreign policy aides have pushed him to embrace the NATO principle of collective defense, preserve the Iran nuclear deal, or tread lightly on decisions such as his announcement to move the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Nafta Talks

It won’t take long to see the impact of the rising nationalist tide within the West Wing. The U.S. is hoping to complete renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement before Mexico’s elections in July, and with major issues still outstanding, the president may be more inclined to walk away from the trilateral trade pact.

“Our time is running very short,” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said Monday.

Other crucial policy challenges loom on the horizon.

The deadline for a congressional deal to secure the fate of the young undocumented immigrants known Dreamers passed Monday, meaning only ongoing legal proceedings stand prevent their potential deportation.

At the same time, South Korea on Tuesday announced that North Korea had signaled a willingness to enter into high-stakes negotiations over its nuclear weapons program.

Lawmakers in both parties are also watching for Trump to retreat from his stated desire for Congress to pass substantial new gun-control legislation. Administration officials are already signaling Trump may adopt a less aggressive approach after intervention by the National Rifle Association.

The wave of departures in the West Wing is also likely to weigh heavily on a White House staff that has seen more than its fair share of tumult.

Shortly before Cohn’s departure was announced, Trump said in a news conference that he enjoys conflict in his administration, that work there could be “tough,” and that more departures could come.

“There will be people that change -- they always change,” Trump said. “Sometimes they want to go out and do something else.”

— With assistance by Joe Deaux

This much-needed fund will let Jo Cox’s ideas and values shine on - Guardian

This much-needed fund will let Jo Cox’s ideas and values shine on

Alison McGovern

Empowering women and building communities mattered to the brave campaigner. Today’s memorial grants are a fitting tribute

Wed 7 Mar 2018 20.04 AEDT Last modified on Wed 7 Mar 2018 20.07 AEDT

‘Jo Cox demonstrated that hearing women’s voices matters.’ Photograph: BBC/Amos Pictures

Grief doesn’t really leave us, ever. Yes, the death of a person truly loved is an event from which it is possible to carry on. But that is what it is. Carrying on. And as you carry on living, you carry with you the grief. You carry the lack of that loved person, and the hole they left in your supportive web. You carry on wondering about what they might have thought, what they might have said, the actions they may have taken.

I think about my friend Jo Cox a lot. Today, as the Department for International Development announces its Jo Cox memorial grants in support of women’s empowerment and the strengthening of communities to prevent and predict identity-based violence, I hope we take a step forward that she would have liked.

May appoints minister to tackle loneliness issues raised by Jo Cox

Any time I mention Syria, I think about Jo. In the year Jo spent in parliament, she put the devastating impact of the Syrian conflict on the agenda in the House of Commons. She never – not for a moment – allowed the government to forget our responsibility to civilians, who have done nothing to propagate war, but who bear the cost. She did not flinch from describing the brutality of Assad’s barrel bombs, nor did she hold back from spelling out the common humanity that we share with Syrian families. Jo had worked with women from Darfur and spent much time in post-conflict Bosnia. As she was no stranger to the impact of war, she used her voice to call for early interventions to try to stop conflicts before they escalate.

Every time I have grasped for the words to explain the grim devastation Syrian civilians face, I have felt Jo’s absence. The truth is, in the past year, it has been far too easy for us all to turn away from that conflict, when we should have been screaming to send help.

As the world has found it easier to ignore the suffering of Syrian civilians, I have thought more about Jo Cox.

I am furiously angry that she is not here to make her own case for the humanitarian principle, now so evidently lacking. It is a horrific truth that life can be so vibrant yet snatched away in a moment. But I know that the lesson of her life is that the only purpose to that anger is to create sufficient force for change. Jo was a practical person, and we must be practical too.

Jo Cox: ‘The sort of person you’d like to spend your life with’

“More in common”, Jo’s expression of pure humanity from her maiden speech, echoed around the wood panels of the House of Commons chamber as she said them. Since she died those words have been shared around the world, and then returned to the Commons chamber, where they are painted in gold underneath Jo’s coat of arms. At the time, Jo was describing her constituency – Batley and Spen – but since her death, those words have been an inspiration to people everywhere.

Jo demonstrated that hearing women’s voices matters. And in the case of the victims of war, we know that it is women who are most at risk, but also that their voices can be crucial in stopping conflict.

That is why I am glad that the government is creating grants in Jo’s name for women that can help prevent or stabilise conflict. Specifically they will empower women to tackle the complex political, social and economic disadvantages they face, and strengthen the ability of communities to predict and prevent identity-based violence including mass atrocity crimes.

Jo’s name truly lives on. And what’s more, her ideas and values live on

This may be a Conservative government that I will disagree with on almost every issue, but when it comes the value of British aid, they have been a force for good. And I learned from Jo how crucial it is that we work across tribal party lines if the chance for change is available. So, I thank Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, along with her predecessor, Priti Patel, for setting up this fund. We are all sisters in this.

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The day Jo was killed in Batley, I was in the House of Commons. As the news filtered through of Jo’s death, MPs and parliamentary staff gathered in the opposition whips office. I saw grim realisation creep up on the faces of all, and hearts break at the thought of who we had lost. Twenty months later, I know those hearts are still broken. Mine is. Life has turned out to be harder and crueller than I wanted it to be.

Despite this, the work, the effort and the campaigning that has gone on in Jo’s name has been a reminder of where love exists in life, too. New friendships – political and otherwise – have been made in her honour. New organisations exist to further the plans she made in life. New projects are well under way, be it in Batley and Spen, on loneliness, on the responsibility to protect, or on the role of women in public life. And in this new Department for International Development initiative, alongside every step to defend decent humanitarian values, Jo’s name truly lives on. And what’s more, her ideas and values live on in it too.

• Alison McGovern is the Labour MP for Wirral South