Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Bitcoin Transaction Volume Is Puzzling Investors - Fortune

Bitcoin Transaction Volume Is Puzzling Investors
By BLOOMBERG March 2, 2018
Earlier this year, when Bitcoin’s price fell by more than 60% from its record close, a less-noticed Bitcoin figure also plunged: the number of daily transactions.
There are many explanations for the fall-off in trading, from software- to news-related. What’s less understood is why the level hasn’t recovered as Bitcoin’s price made a 50% comeback since Feb. 5. That’s left some investors wondering whether the cryptocurrency is waning in popularity.
The average number of trades recorded daily has roughly dropped in half from the December highs and touched its lowest in two years last month, even as Bitcoin became a household name and roared back above $10,000.
The transaction data may be bad news for Bitcoin bulls, according to Charles Morris, chief investment officer of Newscape Capital Group in London, who invests in cryptocurrencies. Trading and purchases on the Bitcoin network, which can be measured by metrics like transaction volume, is indicative of price direction, he said.
“We had a hype-cycle and now it’s cooling down,” Morris, who’s working on a project that will facilitate price discovery in various cryptocurrencies, said by phone from London. “We just may be entering a bear market” for Bitcoin.
Transactions plunged from a seven-day average of almost 400,000 in mid-December to about 200,000 this week, according to research firm Blockchain.info. The last time it was this low, the currency traded below $500.
Transactions waiting to be officially recognized by the Bitcoin network dropped from a seven-day average of 130 million bytes in early January to about 35 million now.
Average transaction confirmation times have tumbled — though that may be in part because the technology that underlies Bitcoin has already been adapted to address some of these delays. For example, a software enhancement known as the SegWit protocol, changing the way data is stored on the blockchain, was activated last week by Coinbase Inc., the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange.
Not everyone agrees that lower volumes signal trouble for Bitcoin. It may be a healthy return to normality and signs that the market is maturing.
Should prices start rallying again, traders may well be coaxed back, according to David Drake, whose New York-based family office has more than $10 million in cryptocurrency and blockchain investments. He sees the currency soaring to $35,000 by the end of the year.
“We have a legacy of transactions being too slow and expensive, and it will take some time for people to forget,” Drake said by phone. “But they’ll come back.”
The decline in prices may itself be to blame for lower trading volumes in Bitcoin. And websites that once only allowed payment in Bitcoin now accept a much wider range of digital currencies, according to Kyle Samani, managing partner at crypto hedge fund Multicoin Capital. That makes alternative currencies more appealing than the first-mover in the space. A year ago, bitcoin’s market capitalization was about 85% of the total sector. It’s now around 40%, according to website Coinmarketcap.com.
“Merchants, payment processors and online gambling are moving off of Bitcoin,” Samani, who has $50 million allocated to the space, said in an email. “Our Bitcoin position as a fund is small — I believe Bitcoin is in the process of failing.”

Former Trump aide says 'screw that' to Russia investigation subpoena - Telegraph

Former Trump aide says 'screw that' to Russia investigation subpoena
Robert Mueller is pursuing Trump campaign figures
Rob Crilly, new york
6 MARCH 2018 • 1:12AM
A former aide to Donald Trump declared on live television that he was refusing to co-operate with a subpoena requiring him to hand over campaign information to the investigation into Russian election meddling.
Sam Nunberg, who helped launch Mr Trump’s White House run before being fired when racist comments on his Facebook page were exposed, conducted a string of interviews in which he said he would refuse to help Robert Mueller’s probe of the 2016 election.
And he made a number of embarrassing claims – suggesting Mr Trump would have endorsed Hillary Clinton if he had not won the Republican nomination, and that Mr Mueller may have evidence of the president’s wrongdoing.
He said collecting emails other communications with key Trump advisers, including Steve Bannon and Roger Stone, would be too much effort.
“They want me over at the grand jury. Screw that. Why do I have to go?” he told CNN.
Roger Stone, whom Mr Nunberg described as a mentor
Roger Stone, whom Mr Nunberg described as a mentor
“I'm not going to build the case that they are trying to build.”
Refusing to comply with a summons could bring contempt of court or even obstruction of justice charges and a possible prison sentence.
“Let him arrest me,” Mr Nunberg told The Washington Post earlier in what turned out to be his first interview of a day filled with media appearances. He said he would not appear before the grand jury on Friday and would tear up court documents on Bloomberg TV.
@JoeNBC
I am worried for Sam Nunberg‘s well-being but if he ignores a federal subpoena, he should be sent to jail until Hell freezes over.
11:19 AM - Mar 6, 2018
Mr Nunberg reportedly began working for the Trump Organisation in 2011 before joining the property mogul’s election campaign when it launched in 2015. But he was sacked after only a few weeks amid media scrutiny of his Facebook posts.
Since then he has been a frequent critic of Mr Trump. Despite his criticisms, however, he said on Monday he would not comply with what had become a “witch hunt”.
He added that he had been interviewed by Mr Mueller’s team for more that five hours last month as it investigated possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Moscow. Since then, he said, he had been asked to turn over communications.
"I think it would be really, really funny if they wanted to arrest me because I don't want to spend 80 hours going over emails I had with Steve Bannon and Roger Stone," he told MSNBC.
"Roger is my mentor. Roger is like family to me. I'm not going to do it."
He also claimed on CNN that Mr Mueller likely had some kind of evidence about Mr Trump’s misbehaviour, “but I don't know about that for sure”.
The White House said it was co-operating with the investigation and dismissed Mr Nunberg’s concerns.
"I definitely think he doesn't know that for sure because he's incorrect," said Sarah Sanders, White House spokeswoman.

Mark Zuckerberg Has Lost $3 Billion This Week - TIME Business

Posted: 04 Mar 2018 01:02 PM PST

It’s been an expensive week for the world’s richest people.
Mark Zuckerberg is nursing the biggest fall after losing $3.2 billion as large cap stocks disappointed for a fourth straight day.
Losses for the Facebook Inc. chief executive officer topped those of Spain’s Amancio Ortega and Mexico’s Carlos Slim, who were both down $2.4 billion as of 1 p.m. in New York. The fortunes of Alphabet Inc.’s Larry Page and Sergey Brin each dwindled more than $2 billion on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index since markets opened on Monday.
The world’s 500 richest people have lost a combined $107 billion this week, more than the entire market capitalization of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. or Lockheed Martin Corp. The wealth of U.S. billionaires fell the most, declining a combined $34 billion. Chinese tycoons saw $16 billion erased.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has slid about 3.5% this week as President Donald Trump invited a trade war and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell fueled speculation the central bank plans to quicken the pace of monetary tightening.

Trump Says He’ll Only Cancel His Trade Tariffs If the U.S. Gets a New NAFTA Deal- TIME

Posted: 05 Mar 2018 04:47 AM PST
President Donald Trump has indicated on Twitter that his recently announced tariffs on steel and aluminum “will only come off” if an agreement is reached at the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) talks.
“We have large trade deficits with Mexico and Canada. NAFTA, which is under renegotiation right now, has been a bad deal for U.S.A. Massive relocation of companies & jobs,” Trump tweeted on Monday.
“Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum will only come off if new & fair NAFTA agreement is signed,” he added. He also criticized fellow NAFTA members Canada and Mexico.
The three countries will meet on Monday for the final round of negotiations, and the proposed duties are set to dominate talks, with both Mexico and Canada expected to press on whether they will be exempt from the tariffs.
“I expect [the tariffs]… to be front and centre,” said Kevin Brady, Republican chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, according to CNBC.
Trump announced that he would impose a 10% tariff on aluminum and a 25% tariff on steel during a Thursday White House meeting with the country’s biggest steel and aluminum manufacturers.

Blockchain is 'one of the most overhyped technologies ever,' Nouriel Roubini says - CNBC News

Blockchain is 'one of the most overhyped technologies ever,' Nouriel Roubini says
Blockchain, the technology behind cryptocurrencies, is "one of the most overhyped technologies ever," according to noted economist Nouriel Roubini.
In an opinion piece on Project Syndicate, he took apart some of the arguments blockchain proponents have put forward about the advantages of the technology.
Roubini said that blockchain was unlikely to remove the need for intermediaries in financial transactions and is unlikely to replace some of the existing systems used by banks.
Arjun Kharpal | @ArjunKharpal
Published 6 Mins Ago - 6/3/2018
CNBC.com
Nouriel Roubini at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
David A. Grogan | CNBC
Nouriel Roubini at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Blockchain, the technology behind cryptocurrencies, is "one of the most overhyped technologies ever," according to noted economist Nouriel Roubini.
Bitcoin was one of the first applications of the blockchain. It's a public ledger of bitcoin transactions that is tamperproof. Transactions on the bitcoin blockchain require verification from a number of different parties. The transactions are verified by so-called "miners" solving complex mathematical puzzles with high-powered computers.
There is no central authority on the bitcoin network which is why the blockchain is often called distributed ledger technology. Large financial institutions are exploring how it could be used.
Advocates have said that it could speed up processes such as legal contracts, cross-border money movement, and back-end processes in large firms.
What is Blockchain?
7:14 AM ET Thu, 14 Dec 2017 | 04:44
But Roubini, who is also known as "Dr Doom" for his pessimistic economic outlooks, is not convinced.
"In reality, blockchain is one of the most overhyped technologies ever," Roubini said in a column along with Preston Byrne, a fellow of the Adam Smith Institute, on the Project Syndicate website.
One of the promises of blockchain technology is that it could cut out large amounts of paperwork. For example, a contract between two or three parties could be executed on the blockchain. Instead of numerous paper copies being updated with the latest terms, a single document, which tracks all the changes made by different parties, would be possible. The contract would be executed once all parties had met certain conditions. This is one of the use cases touted by Ethereum, which has a corresponding cryptocurrency called ether.
Roubini said that many people are confusing what it means to run a blockchain application.
"For starters, blockchains are less efficient than existing databases. When someone says they are running something 'on a blockchain,' what they usually mean is that they are running one instance of a software application that is replicated across many other devices."
Not a 'new universal protocol'
The chairman of Roubini Macro Associates also took apart some of the arguments put forward by blockchain proponents. He said because blockchains require all transactions to be verified cryptographically, they are often slower than traditional processes.
Roubini also said it's unlikely that blockchain technology would be able to eliminate financial intermediaries, as many have claimed. Advocates of the technology have said that the decentralized nature of the way transactions are verified could wipe out people in the middle of the movement of money, something Roubini disagrees with.

"This is absurd for a simple reason: Every financial contract in existence today can either be modified or deliberately breached by the participating parties. Automating away these possibilities with rigid 'trustless' terms is commercially non-viable, not least because it would require all financial agreements to be cash collateralized at 100 percent, which is insane from a cost-of-capital perspective," Roubini said.

"Moreover, it turns out that many likely appropriate applications of blockchain in finance — such as in securitization or supply-chain monitoring — will require intermediaries after all, because there will inevitably be circumstances where unforeseen contingencies arise, demanding the exercise of discretion."
Roubini said that Ethereum is "vulnerable to manipulation by influential insiders" and Ripple's technology won't replace the current system from cross-border money transfers between financial institutions called SWIFT.
Here's what you need to know about the top 5 cryptocurrencies Here's what you need to know about the top 5 cryptocurrencies
11:22 AM ET Thu, 14 Dec 2017 | 01:30
Ripple and Ethereum were not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.
Roubini also said that blockchain would not become a "new universal protocol" similar to the likes of HTML on the internet.
'Railway mania'
However, Roubini did not completely trash the technology. He said that blockchains could make sense "in cases where the speed/verifiability tradeoff is actually worth it."
He is a well-known bear on cryptocurrencies and has, on numerous occasions, called bitcoin a bubble, recently tweeting that he thinks the price of the digital coin will go to zero.
He likened today's "coin mania" to the "railway mania" seen at the start of the industrial revolution in the mid-19th century.
"Ultimately, blockchain's uses will be limited to specific, well-defined, and complex applications that require transparency and tamper-resistance more than they require speed — for example, communication with self-driving cars or drones," Roubini said.
"As for most of the coins, they are little different from railway stocks in the 1840s, which went bust when that bubble — like most bubbles — burst."

'Cryptocurrency' Makes Its Merriam-Webster Dictionary Debut - Fortune

'Cryptocurrency' Makes Its Merriam-Webster Dictionary Debut
By NATASHA BACH March 5, 2018
Cryptocurrency might already be the rage of the day, but it just got a whole lot more legitimate.
Among more than 850 new words and definitions added to the Merriam-Webster dictionary this month, some cryptocurrency-related words are making their debut.
The online version of the dictionary will now feature blockchain, defined as “a digital database containing information (such as records of financial transactions) that can be simultaneously used and shared within a large decentralized, publicly accessible network.” The word cryptocurrency itself and the term “initial coin offering” will also be added.
“In order for a word to be added to the dictionary it must have widespread, sustained, and meaningful use,” explained Emily Brewster, associate editor at Merriam-Webster in a press release. “These new words have been added to the dictionary because they have become established members of the English language, and are terms people are likely to encounter.”
Unicorn, microcredit, and microfinance are also among the new additions to the dictionary.

Sri Lanka imposes state of emergency over communal violence - Al Jazeera

Sri Lanka imposes state of emergency over communal violence
Nation-wide state of emergency imposed to take 'stern action' following violence between Buddhist and Muslim groups.
6/3/2018
A local curfew was imposed on Monday in Kandy, after days of unrest between Buddhist and Muslim groups [File: AP]
A local curfew was imposed on Monday in Kandy, after days of unrest between Buddhist and Muslim groups [File: AP]
Sri Lanka's government has imposed a nation-wide state of emergency to "take stern action" against people instigating communal violence, a government spokesman has said.

The meassure comes after a local curfew was imposed on Monday in the central city Kandy, after days of unrest between religious communities with a Buddhist man killed and Muslim businesses set ablaze.

Mosque vandalised in Sri Lanka's Ampara
Police said on Monday there had been riots and arson attacks since the weekend in Kandy district, while sources told Al Jazeera the violence was spreading throughout the South Asian island nation.

In the past, religious and ethnic violence had turned deadly in Sri Lanka, where Muslims account for 10 percent of the 21 million population, and Buddhists Sinhalese make up nearly 75 percent. Another 13 percent of the population are Hindus.

Some observers blame the nationalist Buddhist organisation Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) group for the ongoing violence.

In February 2018, five people were wounded and several shops and a mosque were damaged during a clash between Buddhist and Muslim groups.

In June 2014, an anti-Muslim campaign was launched following the deadly Aluthgama riots.

Some hardline Buddhist groups have also accused Muslim groups of forcing people to convert to Islam and vandalising Buddhist archaeological sites.

President Maithripala Siresena had vowed to investigate anti-Muslim crimes after assuming power in 2015, but no significant progress has been reported.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA NEWS

Brexit: Michel Barnier's top advisor pours cold water on Theresa May's latest trade plan - Independent

Brexit: Michel Barnier's top advisor pours cold water on Theresa May's latest trade plan
PM thought 'mutual recognition' of standards should be enough

Jon Stone Europe Correspondent @joncstone - 6/3/2018
Stefaan de Rynck advises Michel Barnier (pictured), the EU's chief negotiator AFP/Getty Images
The EU’s chief negotiator’s office has poured cold water on Theresa May’s latest plan for a Brexit trade deal, warning that her suggestion of mutual recognition of standards is not enough to secure access to the single market.

Stefaan de Rynck, the main advisor to chief negotiator Michel Barnier, said the EU’s current approach to trade necessitated a “single EU rule book” – which would appear at odds with the PM’s latest idea.

In her Mansion House speech last week Ms May suggested that the EU and UK could negotiate a trade deal where the UK and EU mutually recognised each others’ rules and standards as obtaining the same “regulatory outcomes”, with a third-party independent court overseeing disputes.

Irish PM Varadkar rules out three-way Brexit talks
But Mr de Rynck said in a lecture at LSE on Monday: “The EU has moved away in the wake of the financial crisis from mutual recognition of national standards to a centralised approach with a single EU rule book and common enforcement structures and single supervisory structures.

“If you are in a very integrated market but you don't have the joint enforcement structures then you can see the potential for all kinds of difficulties.”

The EU’s chief advisor said the ECJ would be able to declare the mutual recognition of standards invalid if it undermined single market integrity, and that this was fundamental to the idea of what the single market was.

His comments are the most detailed response by the European Commission to the PM’s latest speech yet. Chief negotiator Michel Barnier gave a fairly muted reaction last week, saying he welcomed the address that he it would be taken into account when drawing up the EU’s draft trade guidelines, which are expected to be released on Wednesday.

Italy's centre cannot govern without the support of populist parties - Independent

Italy's centre cannot govern without the support of populist parties
The anti-establishment Five Star Movement, whose success is built on the Italian population’s anger over the country’s economic situation and a hardline stance on corruption, beat pre-vote expectations and will be the single biggest party. The darker anti-immigration La Lega also appears to have done better than expected

Chris Stevenson - posted on 5/3/2018
Five Star Movement founder, Beppe Grillo, has also said undocumented migrants should be expelled from Italy Getty
Italians wake up on Monday morning to find out that the future of their government is still as unclear as before their votes were counted.

It is obvious that there will be the need for a coalition, as polling had suggested for weeks, and the identity of the country’s next prime minister is still somewhat of a guessing game. It will probably be weeks before the political horse-trading is finally finished and whatever government is finally formed can get down to business.

However, some major changes have taken place. While Italy is no stranger to political uncertainty, the rise of the populist parties – which may have taken as much as nearly 50 per cent of the vote when all is said and done – is a shot across the bows for the traditional centre-left or centre-right parties that have formed the foundation for decades of Italian government.
Italian Elections 2018: Democratic Party concedes defeat
The anti-establishment Five Star Movement (5SM), whose success is built on the Italian population’s anger over the country’s economic situation and a hardline stance on corruption, beat pre-vote expectations and will be the single biggest party. The darker anti-immigration La Lega, or League – formally known as the Northern League – also appears to have done better than expected. Those two parties will ensure two things in the aftermath of the election. The first is that neither Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right Forza Italia or the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) of Matteo Renzi are likely to have enough support to create a government that reflects the election without support from at least one of the populist parties.

The second is that one of the major issues of the election – immigration – will still be front and centre. Both parties had called for hardline approaches on the issue. La Lega had called for mass deportations, something their coalition partner Forza had also called for, while the founder of 5SM, Beppe Grillo, has also said undocumented migrants should be expelled from Italy. The party’s current leader, Luigi Di Maio, has likened sea rescues of refugees and migrants as a “sea-taxi service” that must be stopped immediately. The fact that 5SM looks to have gained about 32 per cent of the vote, and La Lega around 18 per cent will only spread fear among the communities such measures would affect.


To Putin, Assad’s enemies are the same as Russia’s in Chechenya
Forza also looks to have garnered around 13 per cent, but with its right-wing coalition partners the far-right League and the Brothers of Italy, it will end up with around 37 per cent of the vote and will probably try to take the first stab at convincing others over to its side to form a government. In terms of other coalitions, 5SM would have the most options, but it is hobbled by the fact the party leadership has made so much noise about not wanting to be in a coalition.

If that position changes, they have issues in common with La Lega, not just immigration, but a healthy scepticism of the European project. But, many of their more left-leaning voters would hate a link-up with La Lega. 5SM could also reach out to the centre-left, but would the PD, previously the ruling party, agree to take a junior role in such a partnership? The PD will feel demoralised after a poor showing in the election, despite possibly being the second biggest single party overall, and such a deal might be a step too far.