Wednesday, July 4, 2018

President Trump Pressed Aides About an Invasion of Venezuela, Says a U.S. Official - TIME

President Trump Pressed Aides About an Invasion of Venezuela, Says a U.S. Official

By JOSHUA GOODMAN / AP 5:34 AM EDT
(BOGOTA) — As a meeting last August in the Oval Office to discuss sanctions on Venezuela was concluding, President Donald Trump turned to his top aides and asked an unsettling question: With a fast unraveling Venezuela threatening regional security, why can’t the U.S. just simply invade the troubled country?

The suggestion stunned those present at the meeting, including U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and national security adviser H.R. McMaster, both of whom have since left the administration. This account of the previously undisclosed conversation comes from a senior administration official familiar with what was said.

In an exchange that lasted around five minutes, McMaster and others took turns explaining to Trump how military action could backfire and risk losing hard-won support among Latin American governments to punish President Nicolas Maduro for taking Venezuela down the path of dictatorship, according to the official. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the discussions.

But Trump pushed back. Although he gave no indication he was about to order up military plans, he pointed to what he considered past cases of successful gunboat diplomacy in the region, according to the official, like the invasions of Panama and Grenada in the 1980s.

The idea, despite his aides’ best attempts to shoot it down, would nonetheless persist in the president’s head.

The next day, Aug. 11, Trump alarmed friends and foes alike with talk of a “military option” to remove Maduro from power. The public remarks were initially dismissed in U.S. policy circles as the sort of martial bluster people have come to expect from the reality TV star turned commander in chief.

But shortly afterward, he raised the issue with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, according to the U.S. official. Two high-ranking Colombian officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid antagonizing Trump confirmed the report.

Then in September, on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, Trump discussed it again, this time at greater length, in a private dinner with leaders from four Latin American allies that included Santos, the same three people said and Politico reported in February.

The U.S. official said Trump was specifically briefed not to raise the issue and told it wouldn’t play well, but the first thing the president said at the dinner was, “My staff told me not to say this.” Trump then went around asking each leader if they were sure they didn’t want a military solution, according to the official, who added that each leader told Trump in clear terms they were sure.

Eventually, McMaster would pull aside the president and walk him through the dangers of an invasion, the official said.

Taken together, the behind-the-scenes talks, the extent and details of which have not been previously reported, highlight how Venezuela’s political and economic crisis has received top attention under Trump in a way that was unimaginable in the Obama administration. But critics say it also underscores how his “America First” foreign policy at times can seem outright reckless, providing ammunition to America’s adversaries.

The White House declined to comment on the private conversations. But a National Security Council spokesman reiterated that the U.S. will consider all options at its disposal to help restore Venezuela’s democracy and bring stability. Under Trump’s leadership, the U.S., Canada and European Union have levied sanctions on dozens of top Venezuelan officials, including Maduro himself, over allegations of corruption, drug trafficking and human rights abuses. The U.S. has also distributed more than $30 million to help Venezuela’s neighbors absorb an influx of more than 1 million migrants who have fled the country.

For Maduro, who has long claimed that the U.S. has military designs on Venezuela and its vast oil reserves, Trump’s bellicose talk provided the unpopular leader with an immediate if short-lived boost as he was trying to escape blame for widespread food shortages and hyperinflation. Within days of the president’s talk of a military option, Maduro filled the streets of Caracas with loyalists to condemn “Emperor” Trump’s belligerence, ordered up nationwide military exercises and threatened with arrest opponents he said were plotting his overthrow with the U.S.

“Mind your own business and solve your own problems, Mr. Trump!” thundered Nicolas Maduro, the president’s son, at the government-stacked constituent assembly. “If Venezuela were attacked, the rifles will arrive in New York, Mr. Trump,” the younger Maduro said. “We will take the White House.”

Even some of the staunchest U.S. allies were begrudgingly forced to side with Maduro in condemning Trump’s saber rattling. Santos, a big backer of U.S. attempts to isolate Maduro, said an invasion would have zero support in the region. The Mercosur trade bloc, which includes Brazil and Argentina, issued a statement saying “the only acceptable means of promoting democracy are dialogue and diplomacy” and repudiating “any option that implies the use of force.”

But among Venezuela’s beleaguered opposition movement, hostility to the idea of a military intervention has slowly eased.

A few weeks after Trump’s public comments, Harvard economics professor Ricardo Hausmann, a former Venezuelan planning minister, wrote a syndicated column titled “D Day Venezuela,” in which he called for a “coalition of the willing” made up of regional powers and the U.S. to step in and support militarily a government appointed by the opposition-led national assembly.

Mark Feierstein, who oversaw Latin America on the National Security Council during the Obama administration, said that strident U.S. action on Venezuela, however commendable, won’t loosen Maduro’s grip on power if it’s not accompanied by pressure from the streets. However, he thinks Venezuelans have largely been demoralized after a crackdown on protests last year triggered dozens of deaths, and the threat of more repression has forced dozens of opposition leaders into exile.

“People inside and outside the administration know they can ignore plenty of what Trump says,” Feierstein, who is now a senior adviser at the Albright Stonebridge Group, said of Trump’s talk of military invasion of Venezuela. “The concern is that it raised expectations among Venezuelans, many of whom are waiting for an external actor to save them.”

China to impose $34bn tariffs before the US as trade dispute escalates - Guardian

China to impose $34bn tariffs before the US as trade dispute escalates
Both sides made 6 July tariff threat but 12-hour time difference gives Chinese edge

Julia Kollewe

Wed 4 Jul 2018 19.37 AEST

 A Chinese flag in front of containers at the Yangshan Deep-Water Port
 There had been hopes that the US and China might step away from the measures but neither side has backed down. Photograph: Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images
China is poised to fire the opening salvo in an escalating trade dispute with the US by bringing in 25% tariffs on $34bn of US goods a day earlier than Washington.

Both sides have threatened to impose similarly sized tariffs on 6 July but because of the 12-hour time difference, the Chinese tariffs on US imports ranging from soybean to stainless steel pipes will take effect earlier.

Chinese officials are preparing to implement them from midnight Beijing time on 6 July, Reuters reported. That is noon on Thursday in Washington and 5pm UK time.

The US will implement a 25% tariff on $34bn of Chinese imports – on 818 product lines ranging from cars to vaporisers and “smart home” devices – on Friday.

There had been hopes that the US and China might step away from the measures but neither side has backed down. Economists have warned that the tariffs will damage economic growth and cost jobs, and could escalate into a full-blow trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Last month the Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler became the first major company to issue a profit warning on the back of the trade dispute. The German firm makes Mercedes SUVs in the US and ships them to China, its biggest market.

Donald Trump has threatened to escalate the conflict by imposing further tariffs on up to $200bn of Chinese goods, if Beijing retaliates on Friday.

China’s stock market fell sharply on Wednesday as traders worried about the escalating trade dispute. The benchmark Shanghai Composite index dropped 1% to finish the day at 2,759 points, its lowest closing point since March 2016.

US markets are closed for Independence Day following a move lower on Tuesday.

Michael Hewson, the chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: “In a holiday shortened US session before the 4 July holiday, US equity markets finished lower on the day as trade concerns kept investors cautious.

“Sharp moves in the Chinese currency prompted speculation that Chinese authorities were manipulating the rate in order to offset some of the worst effects of US tariffs.”

Is North Korea secretly continuing its nuclear programme? - BBC News

Is North Korea secretly continuing its nuclear programme?
By Andreas Illmer
BBC News
2 July 2018

Reports that North Korea is continuing its weapons programme, despite pledges to denuclearise, have cast doubt on its sincerity in peace talks.

The recent reports, based on US intelligence leaks, suggest the country is still upgrading its nuclear enrichment sites, among other activities. So what's actually going on?

What are the allegations?
Here's what has been reported across US media:

North Korea's only official nuclear enrichment site at Yongbyon is being upgraded.
The country is stepping up enrichment at two or more secret sites besides Yongbyon.
Pyongyang continues to produce more mobile launch vehicles for its ballistic missiles.
It has also expanded missile production of solid fuel engines which are more mobile and easier to launch.
How reliable are these reports? They are "only" reports but they are deemed accurate by respected North Korea watchers.

The information is based on multiple unnamed sources from the US intelligence community as well as the 38 North study of satellite images of the Yongbyon site.

Skip Twitter post by @nktpnd

Ankit Panda

@nktpnd
 In summary: centrifuges spin at Yongbyon, Kangson, and another facility; KN15 TELs continue to roll out; the Hamhung solid-fuel shop expands considerably.

We shouldn't be surprised; these are in line with Kim's New Year's Day directive on warhead/ballistic missile production.

10:29 AM - Jul 2, 2018

How serious are they?
"None of that activity is in violation of any agreements made at the Singapore summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un," explains Vipin Narang, MIT professor for political science and specialist on nuclear proliferation.

In the declaration wrapping up that summit, Pyongyang merely agreed to work towards denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, something it sees as a phased process.

Details of the process still remain to be worked out by the two sides.

"This was never going to be unilateral and immediate," says Mr Narang. "So Kim Jong-un is free to continue operating the existing sites."

To trust or not to trust, that is the question
Yet the reports that the North is continuing its nuclear activity is still seen as undermining the spirit of the summit and casts doubt on Pyongyang's sincerity to denuclearise.

"The bigger picture here is that North Korea's nuclear programme continues as directed by Kim Jong-un in his speech in January, where he urged the continued production of warheads and ballistic missiles," explains Ankit Panda, editor at The Diplomat magazine.

What were the results of the Trump-Kim summit?
North Korean propaganda changes its tune
N Korea still poses major threat - Trump
What is the biggest news?
Solid fuel engines are more mobile and hence a big step for Pyongyang. Together with the mobile launchers, it means that North Korea can fire missiles from sites that can be quickly set up and not be detected ahead of time by South Korea or the US.

Yet the biggest revelation has been the details about North Korea's secret enrichment sites. So far, Pyongyang has only ever admitted to one enrichment site: Yongbyon.

Solid fuel and mobile launchers would be a major step for Pyongyang
It's been a longstanding suspicion though that there are more, secret sites. An exclusive NBC report based on US intelligence sources confirmed and named one such site and says there is at least one more secret enrichment site.

"You can imagine a North Korean strategy where - without a full disclosure of all their facilities - they can offer to shut down some of the known sites in order to get sanctions relief," explains Mr Narang.

"At the same time they would clandestinely push ahead at the secret sites."

A sacred mountain and other ideologies
On board the train to Korea's music festival for peace
Inside the North Korean place that ‘doesn’t exist’
Why is timing important?
The information coming from the US intelligence sources is presumably something they have known for quite some time. Mr Trump is likely to have been briefed about that very information in the run-up to the Singapore summit.

So why is it now being leaked to the media?

"The sheer number of leaks on nuclear activity makes it look like an authorised attempt to get that intel out into the public sphere," says Mr Abrahamian.

Experts believe there are two reasons why the US intelligence community might have chosen to disclose its information at this point in time.

Scenario one would be "to counter the narrative coming from the White House that it's 'mission accomplished' and that North Korea is no longer a nuclear threat," explains Mr Narang.

It may therefore "constrain Trump a bit so he can't claim successes that have not yet be reached", agrees Mr Abrahamian. "It gets the foreign policy community riled up and increases pressure on Trump not to be soft on the [North] Koreans."

The other scenario would be that it's in fact co-ordinated by the Trump administration to generate leverage. By revealing the extent of US intel, Washington can put pressure on North Korea to admit to its secret sites and operations.

The leaked intel could be a way to say 'Mr Kim, we're watching you'
"The assumption was always that we would let the North Koreans disclose their own sites and check that against the list the US intelligence community maintains," explains Mr Panda. "Immediately you would have a sense of whether or not the North Koreans are negotiating in good faith.

"Now that we have put out what we know about the covert enrichment sites, we can see if the North Koreans will choose to disclose those or not."

Will the pressure work?
What remains is the bigger question of whether post-Singapore summit, this kind of pressure will really be able to steer Pyongyang into line.

The flurry of recent reports of North Korea's continued nuclear and military efforts suggest the country is intent on maintaining its nuclear and ballistic capabilities and even to continuing to produce them.

"It could be that Pyongyang is calculating that no matter what, China is already off the maximum pressure campaign of sanctions against North Korea. And the US really can't sustain it without China," warns Mr Narang.

"Kim Jong-un might simply say 'I've done what I have to in order to break the maximum pressure campaign' - and I think he might be right."

FAA declines to regulate more legroom for airline passengers - NBC News

FAA declines to regulate more legroom for airline passengers
Group called FlyersRights says passenger space on flights is dangerously confined and could hinder emergency evacuations.
by Dennis Romero, Tom Costello and Associated Press / Jul.04.2018 / 11:01 AM ET / Updated 11:03 AM ET

FAA refuses to regulate plane seating
JUL.04.201801:13
The Federal Aviation Administration said Tuesday that even though America's collective waistline is expanding, airlines are free to keep putting passenger room on a diet.

The agency was responding to a legal challenge by the group FlyersRights, which argued that current seatback-to-seatback measurements could hinder passengers' evacuation during emergencies.

"The FAA has no evidence that there is an immediate safety issue necessitating rulemaking at this time," the agency wrote in a letter responding to the court challenge.

Speaking to NBC News, FlyersRights staff attorney Andrew Applebaum responded: "Over the last 20 years the average American passenger has grown taller and larger and that makes it more difficult for passengers to evacuate from the airplane."

The group seeks to "establish a moratorium on further seat size shrinkage" on passenger jets, Applebaum said. Economy class space from seatback to seatback has been reduced from 35 inches to 28 inches on some planes. Seat width has not seen similar reductions.

The FAA does not regulate these dimensions, but it has set a 90-second standard for emergency evacuation with half the exits blocked.

In response to FlyersRights' court challenge, plane manufacturers submitted to the court videos of evacuation drills that show packed planes being emptied within the 90-second limit. However, the travelers' group says some of those exercises were conducted decades ago, when the average American was smaller.

"We observed that the passengers, the test subjects, were younger and smaller than the the average American," Applebaum said.

The Centers for Disease Control has recently said that 70 percent of adults in the United States are now overweight or obese.

Hollywood actor maimed in kidnapping, ransom plot, indictment says
The manufacturers' imagery, FlyersRights claims, is unrealistic, doesn't show the entire evacuation procedure, and does not depict anyone reaching for carry-on bags, which have increased in number as baggage fees have swept the industry.

In an affidavit submitted to the court, FAA safety engineer Jeffrey Gardlin countered that real-world crash- and emergency landings from the last three years also prove that passengers — overweight and otherwise —can escape safely.

The "Miracle on the Hudson," U.S. Airways Flight 1549 in January 2009 — immortalized by Hollywood in the Tom Hanks movie "Sully" — was held up as a modern example of "an effective and timely evacuation," according to a conclusion by the National Transportation and Safety Board. All 155 people on board escaped to safety.

Exit door size, which is regulated, is one reason passengers usually make it out during modern emergencies, Gardlin stated. But he also argued that the size of a passenger doesn't make a crucial difference in exit times.

The FAA decision was a response to the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, which had ordered the agency to take a second look at regulating seat size and passenger room. The court challenge had taken the form of a rule-making petition by FlyersRights, which says it might appeal the FAA's decision.

In the meantime the advocacy group says it is drafting a letter in response to the FAA's stance.

A bill passed by the House of Representatives in April would force the FAA to establish some minimum passenger room measurements, but it would leave the specific numbers up to the agency. It's currently being weighed by the Senate.

"Lives are at stake here," said Applebaum. "We need to make sure that the FAA and the manufacturers are actually testing full scale demonstrations."

Amesbury: Two collapse near Russian spy poisoning site - BBC News

July 4, 2018

Amesbury: Two collapse near Russian spy poisoning site

Police have cordoned off a number of areas including Muggleton Road in Amesbury
A man and woman feared to have been exposed to an unknown substance are in a critical condition, prompting police to declare a major incident.

The pair, in their 40s, were found unconscious in what was thought to be in a drugs-related incident in Amesbury, Wiltshire, on Saturday.

Further tests on the substance are being carried out to identify it.

Amesbury is about 10 miles from Salisbury, where a former Russian spy and his daughter were poisoned.

Sergei Skripal and daughter Yulia were poisoned with Novichok, a suspected military nerve agent, in March.

Police said they are "open-minded" about the cause after a couple were found at a house in Muggleton Road, Amesbury.

Image caption
Queen Elizabeth Gardens in Salisbury was one of a number of areas cordoned off overnight
While it was not clear whether a crime had been committed, the force said, a number of places in Amesbury and Salisbury known to have been frequented by the couple had been cordoned off.

Russian spy: What happened to the Skripals?
"It was initially believed that the two patients fell ill after using possibly heroin or crack cocaine from a contaminated batch of drugs," Wiltshire Police said.

"They are both currently receiving treatment for suspected exposure to an unknown substance at Salisbury District Hospital," it added.

The couple are believe to have attended a family fun day at Amesbury Baptist Church on Saturday afternoon before they were found unconscious in the property.

Roy Collins, church secretary, said "nobody else has suffered any ill-effects" from attending the community event and "there was nothing going on that was nefarious".

"There have been no reports of any other incidents," he said.

"We are all quite puzzled and shocked - naturally the connection with Salisbury and recent events there mean there is a heightened public interest."

Parked outside the red brick Amesbury Baptist Centre are three police cars and four or five officers standing around with one jotting something down in a notepad.

There are no forensic tents, and it all feels like a very low key operation.

It doesn't feel like a Hazchem or Hazardous Chemical incident. It's not Skripal part two.

It does seem like an incredible coincidence for another incident like this to occur, it may just be the police being cautious or there could be something more to it.

Local resident Jake Murphy said he was watching the football on Tuesday night when "all these police cars appeared".

"I didn't know what was happening," he said.

Justin Doughty, who lives opposite the police cordon, said none of the residents have been "told anything by the police".

"We would have thought the police would have been more forthcoming and keep us in the loop."

A government spokesman said ministers were "being kept up to date about the incident in Amesbury".

Wiltshire's Police and Crime Commissioner Angus Macpherson said the police had worked hard at "containing any risk that might be there".

"There's no reason to think it's connected with matters of last month," he said.

"I haven't seen anything in this incident yet that I would consider to be an overreaction in terms of previous incidents, it all seems fairly textbook."

Public Health England said it did not believe there was a "significant health risk" to the wider public, although its advice was being continually assessed.

The hospital was "open as usual" and advised patients to attend routine appointments unless contacted and advised to do otherwise.