Friday, November 3, 2017

Trump says he's "disappointed" in DOJ ahead of Asia trip - CBS News


CBS/AP November 3, 2017, 9:03 AM
Trump says he's "disappointed" in DOJ ahead of Asia trip
Last Updated Nov 3, 2017 9:38 AM EDT
President Trump stopped to talk with reporters as he prepared to depart for a 10-day trip to Asia Friday morning, calling the a meeting he had with former campaign aide George Papadopoulos in 2016 unimportant, and expressing his disappointment in his own Justice Department over a perceived failure to investigate the Democratic National Committee (DNC).
Mr. Trump called a 2016 meeting involving Papadopoulos, the former campaign aide who has pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about Russian contacts, unimportant.
"I don't remember much about that meeting. It was a very unimportant meeting, took place a long time — don't remember much about it," he said.
"All I can tell you is this. There was no collusion, there was no nothing. It's a disgrace, frankly, that they continue." Mr. Trump said.
Mr. Trump said instead people should be looking at the DNC, and a "lot of people," himself included, are "disappointed" in the DOJ.
"I don't know, I'm really not involved with the Justice Department," Mr. Trump said. "I 'd like to let it run itself. But honestly they should be looking at the Democrats, they should be looking at Podesta and all of that dishonesty. They should be looking at a lot of things, and a lot of people are disappointed in the Justice Department, including me."
Mr. Trump's comments came after a morning tweet storm in which he commented on former DNC chair Donna Brazile's new book alleging the DNC fixed the Democratic primary for Hillary Clinton. Mr. Trump said the public "deserves" a probe of Clinton and the DNC after Brazile's claims.
"This is real collusion and dishonesty. Major violation of Campaign Finance Laws and Money Laundering - where is our Justice Department?" he tweeted Friday morning.
On his first visit to the region, the president will stop in Japan, South Korea and China before attending regional summits in Vietnam and the Philippines.
Addressing the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear program is expected to be the dominant concern of Mr. Trump's overseas trip. The relationship between Mr. Trump and leader Kim Jong Un has lately been strained, characterized by an often surreal exchange of threats of annihilation. The North has conducted a number of nuclear and missile tests and has signaled that its nuclear program is making progress.
Some strain between the U.S. and South Korea has arisen in recent months. Mr. Tump has suggested that Seoul should pay the entire cost of a U.S. missile defense system in the South that many there don't even want. He also threatened to end a hard-won U.S.-South Korean free trade agreement that past American presidents had portrayed as an alliance bulwark. In China, Trump may push Beijing on trade barriers and better implementation of U.N. sanctions on North Korea. Tokyo has some concerns about Trump's tough talk on trade, as well as the possibility that U.S. military action against North Korea could endanger Japan.
The president said he thinks it will be a very "successful" trip, adding there is a lot of "goodwill" in those relationships.

A Guide to the Diversity Visa Program That Trump Now Wants to End - Bloomberg

A Guide to the Diversity Visa Program That Trump Now Wants to End
By Laurence Arnold and Lisa Beyer
November 2, 2017,
Trump Calls NYC Terror Suspect an 'Animal'
As soon as authorities identified the assailant in a New York City vehicular attack on Oct. 31 that left eight people dead, political combat over immigration resumed in Washington. President Donald Trump, who was already seeking to cut legal immigration levels in half over 10 years, blamed current U.S. immigration policies and practices for the terrorist attack allegedly perpetrated by a 29-year-old native of Uzbekistan who entered the U.S. in 2010. Trump pledged to end a visa program that emphasizes geographic diversity and reiterated his determination to practice "extreme vetting" of foreigners.
1. What is a diversity visa?
It’s one way that non-Americans can enter the U.S. to live and work. What distinguishes the Diversity Immigrant Visa from other visas -- like those for the spouse of an American, or workers sponsored by an employer -- is that it’s reserved for people in countries "with historically low rates of immigration to the United States." The 50,000 diversity visas are distributed annually by lottery among six geographic regions, and no single country may receive more than 7 percent of them in a given year.
2. Why is Trump targeting diversity visas?
In a Twitter post, Trump said the alleged perpetrator of the New York attack, Sayfullo Saipov, was admitted to the U.S. on a diversity visa, a statement later confirmed by the Department of Homeland Security. Trump has sought to blame Democrats -- particularly their leader in the Senate, Chuck Schumer of New York -- for the existence of the visa lottery, which Trump says should be replaced by "merit-based immigration."
3. Did Democrats create the visa lottery systems?
The diversity visa program was created as part of the Immigration Act of 1990. The legislation was advanced by Democrats, including Schumer, who was then in the U.S. House, as well as Republicans. It passed with bipartisan support in both chambers of Congress. President George H.W. Bush, a Republican, signed it into law. Schumer was also part of a bipartisan group of senators who proposed ending the program as part of a larger immigration overhaul passed by the Senate in 2013 but then rejected by House Republicans.
4. What does Trump mean by ‘extreme vetting’?
That’s unclear. Since he was a candidate for the presidency, Trump has argued that the system of screening foreigners for entry to the U.S. is insufficiently rigorous. He issued an executive order on Sept. 24 that -- had it not been blocked by a U.S. district judge -- would have placed limits or a bar on entry by some people from Iran, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yemen, Chad, North Korea and Venezuela, saying those countries didn’t provide the U.S. with adequate information about applicants for U.S. visas. The order didn’t outline new vetting procedures for U.S. authorities; rather, it called on the secretary of Homeland Security and others to evaluate and strengthen current screening measures, "including through improved collection of biometric and biographic data."
5. Have those changes been enacted?
Again, that’s unclear. Vice President Mike Pence told Fox News on Sept. 21 that "extreme vetting measures" have been in place “at the president’s direction" since the beginning of the year. Testifying before the House Committee on Homeland Security on June 7, Trump’s chief of staff, John Kelly, struggled to provide specifics, other than to say consular officers have been issued “some additional questions" for visa applicants. (Under the established process for screening applicants, consular officers are required to use name-searching algorithms to check for information about an applicant in the records of other government agencies and to refer questionable cases to security officials for further review.) Trump, in one of his tweets after the New York attack, said he "just ordered Homeland Security to step up our already Extreme Vetting Program."

North Korea working on advanced version of missile that could reach US, source says - CNN News

North Korea working on advanced version of missile that could reach US, source says
Barbara Starr-Profile-Image
By Barbara Starr, CNN Pentagon Correspondent
November 2, 2017
North Korea working on advanced missile
Why does North Korea hate the US?
President Donald Trump issued an apocalyptic warning to North Korea on Tuesday, saying it faces "fire and fury" over its missile program, after US media reported Pyongyang has successfully miniaturized a nuclear warhead.
Thousands of North Koreans attend anti-US rally
The North Korean national flag flutters at half mast at the North Korea embassy in Singapore on December 20, 2011. North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il has died aged 69 of a heart attack, state media announced, plunging the nuclear-armed and deeply isolated nation into a second dynastic succession.
Why does North Korea detain some US citizens?
North Korean university students carry balloons as they gather at the Ryomyong residential area, a collection of more than a dozen apartment buildings, to attend its official opening ceremony on Thursday, April 13, 2017, in Pyongyang, North Korea. (AP Photo/Wong Maye-E)
What it's really like to be inside North Korea
A photo taken on July 17, 2016 shows apartment buildings and the Monument to the Founding of the Workers Party (centre R) amongst the Pyongyang skyline, seen from a viewing deck of the landmark Tower of the Juche Idea.
North Korea's Workers' Party: A dominant force
taken on August 29, 2017 and released on August 30, 2017 shows North Korea's intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12 lifting off from the launching pad at an undisclosed location near Pyongyang.NOW
North Korea working on advanced missile
Moment North Korea fired missile over Japan
A military vehicle carries what is believed to be a Taepodong-class missile Intermediary Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM), about 20 meters long, during a military parade to mark the 100 birth of the country's founder Kim Il-Sung in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012. The commemorations came just two days after a satellite launch timed to mark the centenary fizzled out embarrassingly when the rocket apparently exploded within minutes of blastoff and plunged into the sea.
How far can a North Korean missile reach?
Why does North Korea keep launching ICBMs?
North Korea's regime has "succeeded in making a more developed nuke," according to state news agency KCNA. During a visit to the country's Nuclear Weapons Institute "he watched an H-bomb to be loaded into new ICBM," KCNA added.
The weapon that makes N. Korea more dangerous
How much damage can North Korea's weapons do?
How the Kim dynasty has shaped North Korea
Why does North Korea hate the US?
Wath: N. Korea performance shows US in flames
A man watches a television news programme showing US President Donald Trump at a railway station in Seoul on August 9, 2017.
President Donald Trump issued an apocalyptic warning to North Korea on Tuesday, saying it faces "fire and fury" over its missile program, after US media reported Pyongyang has successfully miniaturized a nuclear warhead.
Trump's weeks of bluster on North Korea
People wave banners and shout slogans as they attend a rally in support of North Korea's stance against the US, on Kim Il-Sung square in Pyongyang on August 9, 2017.
US President Donald Trump said the United States' nuclear arsenal was "more powerful than ever" in a fresh warning to North Korea over its repeated missile tests.
Thousands of North Koreans attend anti-US rally
The North Korean national flag flutters at half mast at the North Korea embassy in Singapore on December 20, 2011. North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il has died aged 69 of a heart attack, state media announced, plunging the nuclear-armed and deeply isolated nation into a second dynastic succession.
Why does North Korea detain some US citizens?
What it's really like to be inside North Korea
Inside a North Korean home
North Korea's Workers' Party: A dominant force
PLEASE NOTE FROM KCNA: This picture from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) taken on August 29, 2017 and released on August 30, 2017 shows North Korea's intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12 lifting off from the launching pad at an undisclosed location near Pyongyang.
North Korea working on advanced missile
Moment North Korea fired missile over Japan
A military vehicle carries what is believed to be a Taepodong-class missile Intermediary Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM), about 20 meters long, during a military parade to mark the 100 birth of the country's founder Kim Il-Sung in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012. The commemorations came just two days after a satellite launch timed to mark the centenary fizzled out embarrassingly when the rocket apparently exploded within minutes of blastoff and plunged into the sea. )
How far can a North Korean missile reach?
Why does North Korea keep launching ICBMs?
North Korea's regime has "succeeded in making a more developed nuke," according to state news agency KCNA. During a visit to the country's Nuclear Weapons Institute "he watched an H-bomb to be loaded into new ICBM," KCNA added.
The weapon that makes N. Korea more dangerous
How much damage can North Korea's weapons do?
How the Kim dynasty has shaped North Korea
Why does North Korea hate the US?
(CNN)North Korea is working on an advanced version of its existing KN-20 intercontinental ballistic missile that could potentially reach the United States, less than six months after it launched its first ICBM, a US official tells CNN.
Why does North Korea hate the US?
Why does North Korea hate the US? 01:53
This newly assessed ICBM is just one part of an accelerated effort by Kim Jong Un's regime to improve every part of its missile and nuclear weapons attack capability as quickly as possible, according to several US officials familiar with the North Korean program.
All of these improvements are forcing the US to recalculate the timing of the threat that a North Korean missile could pose to the US, and the need to continuously update US military response options.
Russia probe raises the stakes on Trump's Asia trip
Russia probe raises the stakes on Trump's Asia trip
The officials spoke to CNN on the basis of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, but all strongly emphasized that they were not discussing classified information.
Additional new improvements are underway to North Korea's nuclear fuel, missile launchers, guidance and targeting systems as well, officials say. All of this comes as President Donald Trump is about to travel to Asia, where North Korea's weapons will be a major topic of discussion.
The US continues to believe it may be possible that during 2018, North Korea will be able to take the critical step of putting a miniaturized warhead on top of an intercontinental missile, officials say.
With the new year just less than eight weeks away, the administration continues to look at fine-tuning military response options. While at the same time by the end of 2017, the Pentagon is expected to finish both a so-called Nuclear Posture Review and a Ballistic Missile Defense Review that will set the stage for billions of dollars and decades of new spending on modernized US weaponry to counter the type of threat North Korea poses.
White House says Trump will not visit DMZ
White House says Trump will not visit DMZ
The officials say the accelerated North Korean program is a major reason why so many senior Trump administration officials are publicly talking about a more worrisome threat even as they continue to pin hope on a diplomatic solution with the North. "In terms of a sense of urgency, today, North Korea certainly poses the greatest threat," Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently testified to Congress.
Defense Secretary James Mattis has also been sounding the alarm, noting recently, "North Korea has accelerated the threat that it poses to its neighbors and the world through its illegal and unnecessary missile and nuclear weapons programs," he added, emphasizing that the US "does not accept a nuclear North Korea."
But all the officials CNN spoke with acknowledge that the US is already confronting a nuclear North Korea, because they have carried out a number of nuclear and missile tests. Officials say the dilemma for US intelligence is to know if a North Korean missile is on a launcher and whether it is armed with a nuclear warhead, and is ready to fire.
Trump warns of 'devastating' military option as North Korea moves jets
Trump warns of 'devastating' military option as North Korea moves jets
Despite rhetoric from the White House, inside military and intelligence circles there is little appetite for a pre-emptive strike against North Korean weapons sites, although the US clearly retains that option. But there is a firm view that a nuclear-tipped missile launch would not be allowed to proceed. There will be likely be intelligence indicators from a launch site if that were about to happen, but the indicators may not be foolproof, officials say.
The improvements that North Korea is making that indicate the threat is more urgent include: improved solid rocket fuel with more stability that burns hotter and more evenly to help the missile achieve greater distances; improved rocket motors and engine components, and improved targeting and guidance systems.
North Korea also appears to have made critical progress in developing warheads that will be capable of re-entering the Earth's atmosphere and reaching a target at intercontinental ranges. At least two recent ballistic missile tests demonstrated a dummy warhead successfully re-entering the atmosphere at least in a limited fashion, by not shattering.
This means the dummy test warhead separated successfully from the body of the missile and largely survived the massive heat and friction stress of re-entering the atmosphere after being fired into high altitudes.
North Korea is also assumed by US intelligence to have a functioning warhead they have never tested. Any such test could be perceived as a threat.
Kim Jong Un: What we know about him
Kim Jong Un: What we know about him 01:43
One area where North Korea may be running into serious problems is at its underground nuclear test site at Punggye-ri. US officials are for now dismissing regional press reports that one tunnel completely collapsed, killing hundreds of North Korean workers.
But one US official said that US intelligence is watching the site closely to try to assess what damage may have recently occurred. North Korea conducted a massive underground nuclear test at the site in September and since then there have been several seismic events that geological experts have publicly said make further underground collapse likely due to the shock waves of the test.

Fifty-nine died in Las Vegas – yet Donald Trump had more to say when eight died in New York. Can you guess why? - Independent

Fifty-nine died in Las Vegas – yet Donald Trump had more to say when eight died in New York. Can you guess why?
Where was the President’s passion and leadership last month when America so desperately needed decisive action to combat acts of home-grown terror? Where were all of the angry GOP talking heads arguing for sweeping legislative measures to help protect innocent men, women and children?
Nash Riggins
Trump has vowed to step up vetting following the New York attack EPA
Terrorism has evolved over the course of the last decade. Sixteen years ago, terrorism involved meticulous plans and a network of evil geniuses. It involved lots and lots of money, advanced weaponry and scary foreign governments.
Nowadays, all it takes is a driver’s license, 20 bucks and a heart full of hate.
Yesterday, it happened again. Just like it did in Nice. Just like it did in Berlin and Stockholm. Just like London, Paris, Spain and Edmonton. A lone wolf with a warped sense of the world around him rented a truck, turned into a Manhattan bike path and ploughed into anyone and everyone he could find. At least eight people are dead. Eleven more have been left injured.
And thanks to racial profiling and that archaic concept of terrorism we all love tossing about so much, you can already picture the lunatic that did it. In fact, twenty-something Uzbek national Sayfullo Saipov is exactly the sort of guy Donald Trump is always warning us about (he’s a brown Muslim with a beard and a green card).
Footage shows New York terror suspect running through the streets following attack
It goes without saying Republicans are wasting no time politicising the murders.
Hawkish pundits immediately began banging the drums of war and pointing the finger at the globe’s Muslim community. And America’s fearless commander-in-chief took to the Twittersphere within hours, damning political correctness to hell, blaming Democrats and claiming there would be swift policy changes to strengthen our borders and keep bad people like Sayfullo Saipov out of America.
Say what you want about Trump, but that feels like some uncharacteristically decisive leadership with crystal-clear action items. It feels like he actually wants to get something done – and you know why? Because he’s on the hunt for a scapegoat.
There’s nothing wrong with vetting foreigners before they’re allowed to settle in America, and it’s okay to be wary of the unknown. Nobody’s going to argue we shouldn’t exercise due diligence when it comes to immigration. But right-wing America’s fiery calls for action in the wake of yesterday’s tragedy are so hypocritical it hurts.
Does anybody happen to remember the worst mass shooting in American history? It was only about a month ago, if that helps. Hundreds were injured and 58 people were gunned down in the middle of a Las Vegas concert by some psychopath who’d bought enough guns to take on an invading army. It’s impossible to describe the pain – those people didn’t stand a damn chance. It should have never happened. It was totally avoidable.
You see, America’s horribly relaxed relationship with the firearm has given birth to a whole new meaning of terror, and politicians like Donald Trump know exactly what it would take to eliminate the constant threat of getting shot and killed for no reason. Sweeping gun control measures; bans on assault rifles and high calibre weapons; shutting down disgustingly obvious loopholes on background checks – the list goes on and on.
It’s all pretty simple. So, where was Donald Trump’s passion and leadership last month when America so desperately needed decisive action to combat acts of home-grown terror? Where were all of the angry GOP talking-heads arguing for sweeping legislative measures to help protect innocent men, women and children?
There weren’t any – because white people committing crimes with legally acquired, miniature weapons of mass destruction aren’t an issue to conservatives. In Donald Trump’s dystopian, alternate universe, white people killing each other with guns is what America’s all about. Brown people renting pick-up trucks from DIY shops, on the other hand? That’s just not on.
These shameless, partisan attempts to steer American policy need to be shut down. Bumbling politicians like Donald Trump think they can buy our happiness by kicking immigrants to the kerb and actively discriminating against people based on the colour of their skin or how they’ve been raised to worship God. It doesn’t work that way.
Americans are living under constant threat. Terrorism has become a part of our daily lives. Getting rid of Uzbek outsiders won’t eliminate that threat at all – and if lawmakers spent just a fraction of the time they waste demonising foreigners on pursuing serious policy solutions that reduce acts of home-grown terror being committed by middle-aged white men, you can bet your bottom dollar America would be a whole lot safer.

Climate change 'will create world's biggest refugee crisis' - Guardian

Climate change 'will create world's biggest refugee crisis'
Experts warn refugees could number tens of millions in the next decade, and call for a new legal framework to protect the most vulnerable
Successive droughts, like those seen in sub-Saharan Africa, could cause millions to migrate to cities.
Successive droughts, like those seen in sub-Saharan Africa, could cause millions to migrate to Europe.
Matthew Taylor
Thursday 2 November 2017 17.01 AEDT Last modified on Friday 3 November 2017 05.28 AEDT
Tens of millions of people will be forced from their homes by climate change in the next decade, creating the biggest refugee crisis the world has ever seen, according to a new report.
Senior US military and security experts have told the Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF) study that the number of climate refugees will dwarf those that have fled the Syrian conflict, bringing huge challenges to Europe.
“If Europe thinks they have a problem with migration today … wait 20 years,” said retired US military corps brigadier general Stephen Cheney. “See what happens when climate change drives people out of Africa – the Sahel [sub-Saharan area] especially – and we’re talking now not just one or two million, but 10 or 20 [million]. They are not going to south Africa, they are going across the Mediterranean.”
The study published on Thursday calls on governments to agree a new legal framework to protect climate refugees and, ahead of next week’s climate summit in Germany, urges leaders to do more to implement the targets set out in the Paris climate agreement.
Sir David King, the former chief scientific adviser to the UK government, told the EJF: “What we are talking about here is an existential threat to our civilisation in the longer term. In the short term, it carries all sorts of risks as well and it requires a human response on a scale that has never been achieved before.”
The report argues that climate change played a part in the build up to the Syrian war, with successive droughts causing 1.5 million people to migrate to the country’s cities between 2006 and 2011. Many of these people then had no reliable access to food, water or jobs.
“Climate change is the the unpredictable ingredient that, when added to existing social, economic and political tensions, has the potential to ignite violence and conflict with disastrous consequences,” said EJF executive director, Steve Trent.
“In our rapidly changing world climate change – and its potential to trigger both violent conflict and mass migration – needs to be considered as an urgent priority for policymakers and business leaders alike.”
Although the report highlights to growing impact of climate change on people in the Middle East and Africa, it says changing weather patterns – like the hurricanes that devastated parts of the US this year – prove richer nations are not immune from climate change.
But Trent said that although climate change undoubtedly posed an “existential threat to our world” it was not to late to take decisive action.
“By taking strong ambitious steps now to phase out greenhouse gas emissions and building an international legal mechanism to protect climate refugees we will protect the poorest and most vulnerable in our global society, build resilience, reap massive economic benefits and build a safe and secure future for our planet. Climate change will not wait. Neither can we. For climate refugees, tomorrow is too late.”

Why the Federal Reserve Could Look Totally Different Next Year - NBC News

Why the Federal Reserve Could Look Totally Different Next Year
by MARTHA C. WHITE
President Donald Trump's nomination of Jerome "Jay" Powell as the next Federal Reserve chair is predicted to bring little change to the central bank’s incremental rate increases and unwinding of recession-era quantitative easing, although the multimillionaire and former investment banker brings a Wall Street-friendly skepticism of regulation.
Powell, 64, has served on the Fed’s Board of Governors since 2012, after a career spanning law, private equity and the Treasury Department under George H.W. Bush. Although a Republican, he has a history of dovish monetary policy-making decisions in the vein of current Fed chair Janet Yellen.
“He’s a consensus builder. I would not expect the Fed to get more aggressive,” said Brian Rehling, co-head of global fixed income strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “There’s a pretty significant body of evidence on his views and how he’s likely to proceed.”
With a long-running bull market and steady — if slower than ideal — economic growth, Powell is unlikely to change the Fed’s interest-raising trajectory, with most experts anticipating two or three increases in 2018.
“From a continuity standpoint, it’s definitely a positive for the market,” Myles Clouston, senior director of Nasdaq Advisory Services, told NBC News. “The market hates surprises."
A shake-up might not come from the top
If most experts agree that Powell is unlikely to shake up monetary policy, though, his impact on financial regulation could be more significant.
“There’s the potential for a shift from the regulatory standpoint,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.com. “Jerome Powell has been more vocal about the need for a lighter regulatory touch and that the current level of regulation has hindered economic growth. Those comments foreshadow a change in stance.”
Related: Trump Nominates Jerome Powell as New Chair of the Federal Reserve
Last month, the Senate confirmed Randal Quarles — a lawyer and private equity firm founder who served in George W. Bush’s Treasury Department and favors less regulation in financial markets — to fill one of the vacant seats on the Fed board and oversee bank supervision.
Karen Shaw Petrou, managing partner of Federal Financial Analytics, a consulting firm that specializes in financial regulation, predicted that the one-two punch of Powell and Quarles could lead to a relaxation of regulations like bank liquidity requirements.
“It’s important to note, in general, that the monetary policy under a Powell Fed will still be made by the same Federal Open Market Committee that he sat on, and that’s much more of a consensus-driven process, but regulatory policy is really made by the board,” she said. “I think you’re going to see, in time, a significant restructuring of some of the post-crisis rules,” she said, adding that she didn’t expect a wide-ranging repeal of the landmark 2010 legislation.
Dan North, chief economist at Euler Hermes North America, voiced a similar sentiment. “I doubt you’ll see a wholesale change or wholesale dismantling of Dodd-Frank. I just don’t think you’ll see a ramp-up,” he said.
What's next for Yellen?
Although Yellen has vociferously made the case for a strong regulatory framework to prevent another financial meltdown, most observers think she is unlikely to remain on the board after stepping down as chair and will leave before her term ends in 2024.
“She probably has many opportunities outside of the Fed that would probably be more appealing than taking a step back,” Rehling said — even though this would hand Trump the opportunity to fill another vacant seat.
Even if Yellen were to remain, Trump still has three seats to fill on the seven-member board, giving him broad latitude to reshape the central bank in his image. Two names reportedly under consideration for the chair position were Stanford University economist John Taylor and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, both of whom take markedly more hawkish positions on monetary policy.
“With this many open seats at the table, you could see a diametrical shift in the Fed’s stance on both monetary policy and regulation going forward. The Fed 12 months from now could look a whole lot different,” McBride said.
“Having a lawyer rather than an economist at the controls of the world’s largest economy could lead to some interesting times.”
This could leave Powell in the unenviable position of trying to build consensus among a sharply divided board, making it more difficult to stay the course on monetary policy.
“Overall, he’s got a big job in front of him,” Clouston said. “We live in a global economy now, and his main job to make sure the markets and the economy are firing on all cylinders.”
Staying ahead of the curve on inflation will be Powell’s greatest imperative, he said. “That will be a big challenge.”
McBride said Powell’s lack of a doctorate in economics could be an impediment if rapidly rising inflation, a geopolitical crisis or other shock strikes the economy. “Having a lawyer rather than an economist at the controls of the world’s largest economy could lead to some interesting times, particularly because the Fed is at a critical phase both raising short-term interest rates and the unprecedented move of downsizing the balance sheet,” he said. “If things go wrong, who do you want at the controls?”