Sunday, July 15, 2018

Intel chief Dan Coats says of cyberattacks, "We are at a critical point" - CBS News

July 13, 2018, 5:27 PM
Intel chief Dan Coats says of cyberattacks, "We are at a critical point"

Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats warned of an impending, potentially devastating cyberattack on U.S. systems, saying the country's digital infrastructure "is literally under attack" and warning that among state actors, Russia is the "worst offender."

Speaking at a scheduled event at the Hudson Institute, he adopted the language of former Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet who, in the months ahead of the 9/11 attacks, warned that the "system was blinking red." Coats, citing daily attacks from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, said, "Here we are, nearly two decades later, and I'm here to say the warning lights are blinking red again."

He said the aggressors' targets were diverse, and included businesses, federal, state and local governments, the U.S. military, academic and financial institutions, and critical infrastructure. The FBI and Department of Homeland Security had already detected Russian government actors exploring vulnerabilities in energy, nuclear, water, aviation and manufacturing sectors, he warned.

Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats  YURI GRIPAS / REUTERS
"All of these disparate efforts share a common purpose," he observed, "to exploit America's openness in order to undermine our long-term competitive advantage."

Coats also said there was "no question" that Russia was the "most aggressive foreign actor," and its efforts to undermine American democracy are ongoing, even if they appear to have abated from 2016 levels.

"We are not yet seeing the kind of electoral interference in specific states and in voter databases that we experienced," he said. "However, we realize we are just one click of the keyboard away from a similar situation repeating itself." Russian attempts to stoke social and political tensions on social media platforms, Coats said, were still "aggressive," with new fake accounts continually being created by the Internet Research Agency. Special counsel Robert Mueller indicted the IRA, along with thirteen Russian nationals it employed, in February.

"These actions are persistent, they're pervasive and they are meant to undermine America's democracy on a daily basis, regardless of whether it is election time or not," Coats said. "The warning signs are there. The system is blinking. And it is why I believe we are at a critical point."

As part of an ongoing restructuring process called "Intelligence Community 2025," Coats said, the 17 agencies of the intelligence community would make their own efforts to boost transparency and information-sharing, including by working to eliminate what he called "information silos" between the public and private sector. He also urged all consumers of information to be vigilant about its provenance.

"We need the American people to verify the credibility of the sources of information upon which they base their decisions," he said. "Whether those sources are social media reports, cable news or newspapers, it is essential that we all apply critical thinking to all sources of information."

Coats' stark warning was issued on the same day the Department of Justice announced an 11-count indictment against 12 Russian intelligence officers accused of hacking the Democratic National Committee and Clinton campaign – and just three days before President Trump is scheduled to hold a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Despite an outpouring of admonishments from Republican and Democratic lawmakers, who said the meeting should be cancelled in light of the DOJ's most recent indictments, the White House said it would proceed.

For its part, hours before the Mueller indictment was issued, the Kremlin again denied ever attempting to meddle. "The Russian state has never interfered and has no intention of interfering in the U.S. elections," said Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov.

Coats, asked by moderator Walter Russel Mead what message he would offer the Russian president, said, "My message would be, 'We know what you're doing," he said. "President Putin, the decisions are up to you...we know what you do and so you make the choice. But if you want to stay in this tit-for-tat, we're going to beat you." 

Bond markets signal early end to Fed rate rises - Financial Times

July 14, 2018

Bond markets signal early end to Fed rate rises
While the central bank hails strength of US economy, traders are not so sure

Fed chair Jay Powell

Joe Rennison in New York
Bond traders are anticipating that an end to the Federal Reserve’s cycle of monetary policy tightening could come as early as next year, facing down policymakers that expect to raise interest rates for longer.

While the Fed expects to raise rates into next year and potentially the year after — a point that could be reiterated by chair Jay Powell when he gives testimony this week to Congress — current prices in US interest rate markets suggest that the central bank will stop its hiking cycle sooner.

According to the median prediction by policymakers, the Fed policy rate will rise to 3.375 per cent in 2020. In contrast, eurodollar futures suggest rates may plateau in 2019.

The differences come as despite strong corporate earnings growth and positive economic data, investors are factoring in the risk of a slowdown in the economy.

“The markets are telling us that there is a pretty high risk of economic slowdown or recession at the end of 2019,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Capital Management.

The yield on futures expiring in December 2019 stood at 2.97 per cent on Friday, and on futures expiring in March 2020 it was an almost identical 2.975 per cent. The yield falls to 2.96 per cent for December 2020 eurodollar futures.

“The market is saying that the Fed is wrong,” said John Brady, managing director at RJ O’Brien.

This is only the fifth time since 1989 that there has been an inversion in the eurodollar futures yield curve, where longer-term rates are below shorter-dated rates. Each time it has been followed by the Fed pausing its policy tightening.

The Fed has been stressing the strength of the economy in its recent communications but trade concerns have amplified fears that companies may begin to slow capital expenditure, while some analysts say that the boost from tax reform will begin to erode in 2019 as year-over-year growth comparisons will be set at a higher bar.

A second market measure of interest rate expectations, fed funds futures, which are less heavily traded than eurodollar futures, is showing a similar plateau in 2019, although it is not inverted.

Global Economy
Fed sees more Americans returning to workforce
The pattern can also be seen in the difference between two and 10-year Treasury yields, with the 10-year struggling to sustain levels above 3 per cent. When shorter-dated yields rise above longer-dated yields it is seen by many investors as a sign of a coming recession. The spread on Friday between the two Treasury benchmarks stood at just 24 basis points, the lowest level since 2007.

A majority of Fed policymakers expect two more rate rises this year. With further moves early next year, that would put the Fed close to its median estimate of the neutral interest rate, at which monetary policy neither stimulates nor cools the economy. Policymakers are intensely debating whether to push beyond that level or call a halt there.

Complicating deliberations is the Fed’s balance sheet, which some officials think may be artificially flattening the yield curve and making it a less useful indicator than in previous economic cycles.

The size of the balance sheet is still holding down long-term rates, they suggest, but the programme to reduce its holdings, which began in October of last year, may be contributing to an upward drift in short-term rates as investors struggle to digest the increase in supply.

Additional reporting by Sam Fleming

Russians relied on bitcoin to finance election hacking, prosecutors say - CBS News

 July 13, 2018, 5:56 PM
Russians relied on bitcoin to finance election hacking, prosecutors say

The 12 Russians indicted on Friday for conspiracy to interfere in the 2016 presidential election used well-known tactics to penetrate computer systems. To finance the operation, they relied on bitcoin, federal prosecutors said.

The indictment, which stemmed from the investigation of special counsel Robert Mueller, described the activities in a section on money laundering. "The Defendants conspired to launder the equivalent of more than $95,000 through a web of transactions structured to capitalize on the perceived anonymity of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin," the government indictment claims.

Purchases with bitcoin included computer servers and domain registrations. Prosecutors allege they used bitcoin to help conceal their identity.

"The use of bitcoin allowed the Conspirators to avoid direct relationships with traditional financial institutions, allowing them to evade greater scrutiny of their identities and sources of funds," the indictment reads.

They used several "dedicated email accounts" to track the bitcoin transactions. One email account named "gfadel47," received bitcoin payment requests from approximately 100 different email accounts, prosecutors said.

The Russian officers allegedly used fake names, including "Ward DeClaur" and "Mike Long," when purchasing a Malaysian server used to plant malware on networks of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic National Committee.

"It cost very little money," CNET senior producer Dan Patterson said on CBSN. "What they really invested in was psychological warfare, making sure they could trick people into falling for these spear phishing type of attacks."

Patterson said it was essentially "a very simple attack" that tricked staffers into clicking on emails from rogue accounts. That enabled Russian operatives to steal usernames and passwords and eventually infiltrate the entire network by exploiting security holes in Microsoft Exchange.

He notes it wasn't the first time Russian hackers are believed to have used such tactics.

"They did the same thing in Ukraine," Patterson said, referring to a series of cyberattacks that wreaked havoc on that country's energy grid. "In fact, the Russians probably used Ukraine as a test bed for cyberattacks targeted at the U.S."






Trump: Low expectations for Putin talks - BBC News

July 15, 2018

Trump: Low expectations for Putin talks

The leaders will reportedly discuss US-Russia relations and national security issues on Monday
US President Trump has said he has "low expectations" for his meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin in Finland on Monday.

But he told CBS News that "nothing bad" and "maybe some good" would come out of the encounter.

He also said he would raise the subject of 12 Russians indicted for alleged hacking during the 2016 US election - but "hadn't thought" about asking for their extradition.

Russia denies the allegations.

There are no extradition arrangements between Russia and the US.

There have been calls in the US for Mr Trump to cancel his meeting with Mr Putin over the indictments, announced on Friday by US Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.

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Mr Trump told CBS News he "believed in meetings" and said his meetings with the North Korean and Chinese leaders had been a "very good thing".

"I think it's a good thing to meet. I do believe in meetings. I believe that having a meeting with Chairman Kim was a good thing. I think having meetings with the president of China was a very good thing. I believe it's really good. So having meetings with Russia, China, North Korea, I believe in it. Nothing bad is going to come out of it, and maybe some good will come out," he said.

"I can't tell you what's going to happen, but I can tell you what I'll be asking for. And we'll see if something comes of it," he added.

Mr Trump also repeated his earlier criticism of the Obama administration, which was in power when the alleged hacking of Democratic party officials took place.

"This was during the Obama administration. They were doing whatever it was during the Obama administration," he said.

"The DNC should be ashamed of themselves for allowing themselves to be hacked. They had bad defences and they were able to be hacked," he added.

He said he had been told "by a number of people" that hackers had also targeted the Republican party but "we had much better defences", although he added that "this may be wrong".

The US president has taken in a Nato summit and a visit to the UK ahead of his meeting with Mr Putin.

Putin laughs at political chaos in US
Russia has said it is looking forward to the talks.

"We consider Trump a negotiating partner," said Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov. "The state of bilateral relations is very bad. We have to start to set them right."

Russia's foreign ministry has said there was no evidence linking any of the dozen officials named in the US indictments to hacking or military intelligence.

What are the allegations?
The 11-count indictment names the Russians defendants, alleging they began cyber-attacks in March 2016 on the email accounts of staff for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign.

They are accused of using keystroke reading software to spy on the chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and hack into the party's computers.

Who has called for talks to be cancelled?
Top Democrats including party chairman Tom Perez have urged Mr Trump to abandon the talks, saying Mr Putin was "not a friend of the United States".

On the Republican side, Senator John McCain said the summit "should not move forward" unless the president "is prepared to hold Putin accountable".

What's the big picture?
Special Counsel Robert Mueller is investigating US intelligence findings that Russians conspired to sway the 2016 election in Mr Trump's favour.

As of Friday, the inquiry has indicted 32 people - mostly Russian nationals in absentia - as well as three companies and four former Trump advisers.

None of the charges allege Trump advisers colluded with Russia to interfere with the presidential campaign.

Why US fears Russia is hacking election
Former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and George Papadopoulos, a former foreign policy adviser, have pleaded guilty to making false statements about their contacts with Russians.

Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his deputy Rick Gates were charged with money laundering relating to their political consultancy work in Ukraine.

Theresa May: Trump told me to sue the EU - BBC News

July 15, 2018

Theresa May: Trump told me to sue the EU

Theresa May reveals the advice President Trump gave her over Brexit
Donald Trump told Theresa May she should sue the EU rather than negotiate over Brexit, she has told the BBC.

The US president said on Friday at a joint press conference that he had given her a suggestion but she had found it too "brutal".

Asked by the BBC's Andrew Marr what it was he had said, she replied: "He told me I should sue the EU - not go into negotiations."

She defended her blueprint for Brexit and urged her critics to back it.

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She said it would allow the UK to strike trade deals with other nations, end free movement of people and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

A White Paper published on Thursday fleshed out details of her plan, which advocates close links with the EU on trade in goods, but not services.

Before the paper was published, Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resigned, saying it would not deliver the Brexit people voted for in the 2016 EU referendum.

Prime Minister Theresa May and U.S. President Donald Trump hold a joint press conference at Chequers.
Mrs May laughed off the president's legal action suggestion, saying she would carry on with negotiations, but added: "Interestingly, what the president also said at that press conference was 'don't walk away'.

"Don't walk away from those negotiations because then you'll be stuck. So I want us to be able to sit down to negotiate the best deal for Britain.

Leading Tory Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg has called the White Paper a "bad deal for Britain". He says it would lead to the UK having to follow EU rules with no say in how they are made.

Donald Trump told the Sun newspaper Mrs May's proposals would "probably kill" a trade deal with his country.

Hours later, however, he said a US-UK trade deal would "absolutely be possible"

Eyes on the prize
Mrs May urged Brexiteers in her own party to "keep their eye on the prize" of Brexit - and said her plan was the only workable way to deliver it.

Her message comes ahead of crucial Commons votes on trade and customs policy in the coming week. with Tory Brexiteers tabling a series of amendments to the legislation.

"Some people are saying they want to vote in the Trade Bill to keep us in the customs union. I say that's not acceptable, " Mrs May told Andrew Marr.

"That's not what the British people voted for.

"Others are saying that perhaps we cannot have the bill at all. That would be damaging to our 'no deal' preparations.

"So let's just keep our eyes on the prize here. The prize is delivering leaving the European Union in a way that's in our national interest."

Mrs May insists her plans would allow the UK to strike its own trade deals, despite agreeing a "common rulebook" with the EU on cross-border trade.

She said such rules were needed to protect jobs in firms with supply chains that crossed borders and deal with the Irish border issue.

Labour Party chairman Ian Lavery said Mrs May's "so-called plan" did not "stand up to scrutiny".

"No-one - not the public, Parliament or the Conservative party - is happy with Theresa May's offer. This has descended into a shambles," he added.