Let's Start Taking Trump's Unpopularity Seriously - Bloomberg

Let's Start Taking Trump's Unpopularity Seriously

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

By Jonathan Bernstein

November 17, 2017,

The FiveThirtyEight polling aggregator tells us that Wednesday was Donald Trump's 300th day in office -- and he's still breaking records for unpopularity at this stage of his presidency.

The good news for Trump? It's hard to find any, but I suppose it's becoming fairly likely that he's plateaued at his current level. His approval is currently estimated at 38.1 percent, and it's been in the high 30s since dropping below 40 percent May 16. I don't think anyone at this point believes he's hit a hard floor, though it's at least plausible that it would take additional events to push him further down.

The bad news? He's the most unpopular president after 300 days during the polling era, about 9 points below Bill Clinton (who had already hit his all-time low and was rallying in November 1993). That's approval numbers. His net approval (that is, approval minus disapproval) is even uglier. Every previous president in the polling era (which starts with Harry Truman) was in positive territory at this point. With 55.6 percent saying they don't like the way Trump is handling his office, his net approval is -17.5, which is 21 percentage points lower than Clinton's was.

He's unlikely to catch any of the other presidents anytime soon. The next point any of the elected presidents fell below zero net approval was Ronald Reagan in mid-April 1982. The next time any of them were lower than where Trump is now was Reagan in February 1983. In other words, unless he becomes more popular, Trump will spend every day of the entire first two years of his presidency with the lowest net approval of any newly elected president (and he need only drop a bit more to get below Truman's low point within his first two years).

Yes, polls can be wrong. But there's no particular reason to believe these are any more than a few points off, and they could just as easily be wrong in either direction. No, the 2016 election didn't reveal major polling problems. The idea that national polls were wrong during the 2016 general election is simply a myth, although some state polls were off by several percentage points. And the polls predicted his nomination from early on; it was "experts" (such as myself) who were wrong. There's no reason beyond wishful thinking among those who do support the president to believe that he's actually popular and surveys are just missing it for some reason.

Don't trust me -- trust the election results. Democrats picked up yet another state legislative seat on Tuesday, this one in an Oklahoma district that Trump had carried by 40 percentage points a year ago. That's the 14th gain for Democrats in state legislative special elections so far this year, and (adding in Virginia and New Jersey regular elections) at least the 31st seat to go from Republican to Democrat. Or trust the politicians -- Republicans are retiring at a rapid rate and the party has had trouble finding strong candidates to run against some potentially vulnerable Democrats, while Democrats are breaking all sorts of recruiting records. In other words, everyone in the political system is behaving as if Trump is unusually unpopular.

As I've said before, there is still time for him to recover before 2020, although as the months go by it seems harder and harder to imagine. Most previous presidents have had impressive rallies of 15 percentage points of approval or more. It's just that all of them were recovering lost ground. Trump has never been popular, either during the campaign, in the electoral victory in which he lost the popular vote, or once he took office. Perhaps that doesn't affect his capacity for rallying; perhaps it does.

His chances for recovering in time to avoid an electoral disaster for the Republicans in 2018, however, are rapidly disappearing. Clinton's Democrats suffered in 1994 from his awful start in 1993; while a Trump recovery would surely help his party next November, a lot of what will happen is already either baked in now or will be soon, thanks to candidate matchups that will strongly favor Democrats.

I still think the story of Trump's unpopularity is badly underplayed by many in the media. It's such an out-of-proportion number that people just don't know what to make of it -- and, no doubt, the surprise of both Trump's nomination and election make people understandably gun-shy. It's time for people to accept that it's real, and it matters.

1. Dan Drezner on what to do about how women in national security are treated.

2. Mira Rapp-Hooper at the Monkey Cage on Trump's Asia trip.

3. Alvin Chang at Vox on Sean Hannity, leading conspiracy theorist.

4. Nate Cohn on the Alabama Senate contest.

5. And Nate Silver on the consequences of the Alabama Senate contest.

Trump to Pay His Own Legal Bills, Set Up Fund to Cover Staff - Bloomberg

Trump to Pay His Own Legal Bills, Set Up Fund to Cover Staff

By Shannon Pettypiece

November 18, 2017,

Plan raises questions on whether paying staff bills is ethical

President’s legal bills had previously been covered by RNC

Why Mueller Is Seen as the Perfect Man for the Job

Why Mueller Is Seen as the Perfect Man for the Job

President Donald Trump has started paying his own legal bills related to the Russia probe, rather than charging them to his campaign or the Republican National Committee, and is finalizing a plan to use personal funds to help current and former White House staff with their legal costs.

The Office of Government Ethics and a tax firm are working on a mechanism for Trump to contribute to staffers’ legal bills that would meet regulatory and ethical standards, White House lawyer Ty Cobb said in an interview. The White House is hoping the issue will be resolved shortly, said Cobb, who declined to elaborate further on the details of the plan.

While there is no law barring a president from giving gifts to those who report to him, Trump’s case raises unique questions about whether his contributions could influence the testimony of staffers, said Walter Shaub, former head of the Office of Government Ethics who has criticized the president over other conflicts of interest.

Cobb said the White House is aware of the ethical questions and has been taking steps to address them in recent weeks.

"The president has assumed responsibility for his own legal fees and while he isn’t involved directly in the creation of a mechanism to take care of staffers, it is important to him that they be taken care of and whatever approach is agreed upon by OGE and relevant tax authorities be bulletproof," said Cobb.

It is possible, however, that the final plan ethics and tax officials come up with to cover White House staff legal costs wouldn’t allow for Trump to make a contribution, said a person familiar with the process.

Trump’s legal bills had previously been covered by the RNC, which paid out $131,250 to Trump’s attorney Jay Sekulow and $100,000 to attorney John Dowd.

The legal fees for Trump and White House officials could go much higher depending on how long Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation lasts and whether its scope expands. Cobb has said he expects Mueller to wrap up interviews with White House staff shortly after Thanksgiving and conclude his investigation early in 2018. But a U.S. official with knowledge of the investigations expects it to continue well into next year.

Financial Burden

For White House staff, the mounting legal bills have been putting some under a financial strain. One interview with a congressional committee or Mueller could exceed $30,000 in legal costs.

Among those who have been interviewed are former chief of staff Reince Priebus, former spokesman Sean Spicer, and National Security Council chief of staff Keith Kellogg, according to people familiar with the investigations. Mueller has also indicated he wants to speak with White House Counsel Don McGahn and communications director Hope Hicks, said another person close to the investigation.

Trump is only considering using is personal funds to pay for the legal bills of current and former White House aides, not people who served exclusively during the campaign. That would rule out some of the highest profile figures in the investigations, including former campaign manager Paul Manafort and his deputy, Richard Gates, both of whom were indicted on charges of money laundering last month. George Papadopoulos, a campaign foreign policy adviser who pleaded guilty to making false statements to the government, also wouldn’t be eligible.

It’s unclear whether Trump’s offer extends to Michael Flynn, who was fired from his role as Trump’s national security adviser early in the administration.

Flynn’s family has set up a fund to help raise money to cover his legal costs associated with Mueller’s investigation, but it won’t accept contributions from the Trump campaign or the Trump Organization, a person with knowledge of the fund said in September when the fund was established. Flynn’s lawyer Robert Kelner didn’t respond to a request for comment on whether Flynn would accept funds directly from Trump.

Ivanka Trump is in no position to lecture Roy Moore - Independent

Ivanka Trump is in no position to lecture Roy Moore

Whether or not Ivanka Trump knows better, she has put herself forth to validate her father's treatment of women and discredit accusers. My advice to her is to make herself scarce. Her voice only reminds us of her unforgivable complicity in selling Trump to the voters.

Jennifer Rubin

CNN reports:

“Ivanka Trump spoke out for the first time against embattled Alabama Senate Republican candidate Roy Moore, who has been accused of pursuing sexual relationships with teenagers when he was in his early thirties. Her father, President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has largely stayed mum on the issue.

“'There's a special place in hell for people who prey on children,' Ivanka Trump told the Associated Press in an interview otherwise focused on tax reform published Wednesday.

”'I've yet to see a valid explanation and I have no reason to doubt the victims' accounts,' the first daughter and presidential adviser said.“

Really, Ivanka? Next time a news outlet snags an interview with her, it might ask:

America shames democracy by allowing Roy Moore to stand

- Why can her father not bring himself to condemn Moore?

- Would you urge Alabama voters to cast ballots for his opponent, Doug Jones?

- Is there a “special place in hell” for a man who reportedly “entered the Miss Teen USA changing room where girls as young as 15 were in various states of undress” and bragged about such situations (“I'll go backstage before a show, and everyone's getting dressed and ready and everything else”)?

- Does that spot in hell have a spot for men who discuss their teenage daughter in creepy sexualized terms?

- Would that spot in hell have room for a man who reportedly tells 14-year-olds that “in a couple of years I'll be dating you”?

Ivanka Trump: 'I leave the politics to other people'

Ivanka Trump knows that young women and men allegedly accosted and abused by powerful men in Hollywood (e.g. Harvey Weinstein, Louis C.K., Kevin Spacey) have come forward with detailed accounts. Criminal investigations have been launched, series and movies cancelled, and careers ruined. So:

- Is there also a special place in hell for powerful men who made crude sexual advances, grope women and use their status to quiet and defame their accusers?

- Should those women be believed if their stories are detailed, consistent with known facts and collectively portray a pattern of behaviour?

​Ivanka Trump doesn't like being called “complicit” in her father's policy agenda. But her great sin is helping to vouch for and normalize her father's character. His alleged predatory behaviour - just as Roy Moore's - should have disqualified him from office. And yet she helped convince voters that he was a terrific guy, a feminist even.

Ivanka Trump says 'there is a special place in hell' for child abusers

Indian city rounds up 200 beggars ahead of Ivanka Trump visit

Jared and Ivanka 'in a world of s***' after first year in Washington

Ivanka Trump calls for an end to sexual harassment

Ivanka Trump gives women's empowerment speech to 'half-empty room'

When The New York Times ran a report extensively documenting his treatment of women, Ivanka Trump was there to defend him:

“ 'Most of the time, when stories are inaccurate, they're not discredited and I will be frustrated by that. But in this case, I think they went so far,' Ivanka said.'... This is an article that is widely being discredited. The lead person who was interviewed - for the story and that the story opens up with - was all over the news yesterday, saying that they manipulated what she was saying. So you know, I don't find it that meaningful to comment on this particular story because I think the facts are starting to speak for themselves.'

“Ivanka also rejected a former colleague's claim that she had been groped by Donald Trump during a business meeting.

Trump: "Ivanka wanted to make the trip... she said 'Daddy, can I go with you?' I like that"

“ 'I'm not in every interaction my father has, but he's not a groper. It's not who he is,' she said. 'And I've known my father obviously my whole life and he has total respect for women. He was promoting women in development and construction at a time when it was unheard of. There was no trend towards equality in the real estate and construction industry back in the 1980s. And he was doing it because he believes ultimately in merit.' ”

Really.

In July 2016, she told The Sunday Times, “My father is a feminist. He's a big reason I am the woman I am today.”

And in April this year in Germany, boos rained down on her when she insisted, “I've certainly heard the criticism from the media and that's been perpetuated, but I know from personal experience, and I think the thousands of women who have worked with and for my father for decades are a testament to his belief and solid conviction in the potential of women... As an adviser and as a daughter, I can speak on a very personal level knowing that he encouraged me and enabled me to thrive.”

Whether or not Ivanka Trump knows better, she has put herself forth to validate her father's treatment of women and discredit accusers. She's in no position now to lecture us on Moore, although if she'd like now to come clean on her father's conduct and comment on his eternal punishment, she might recover some dignity and respect in the eyes of American women (and men, as well). Since that's not happening, my advice to her is to make herself scarce. Her voice only reminds us of her unforgivable complicity in selling Trump to the voters.

Empathy Is Crucial To Any Personal Or Professional Relationship -- Here's How To Cultivate It - Forbes

NOV 17, 2017 @ 03:26 AM 638 The Little Black Book of Billionaire Secrets

Empathy Is Crucial To Any Personal Or Professional Relationship -- Here's How To Cultivate It

Bhali Gill , CONTRIBUTOR

I write about achieving happiness and wellbeing in work and life.

Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

managers who showed more empathy were viewed as better performers.

Only by being present with the person you are with can you be empathetic

Shutterstock

Have you ever shared a painful or challenging experience with a friend, partner, colleague or boss and instead of feeling heard you left the conversation feeling worse off and misunderstood?

In that moment, the person whom you were speaking to was not empathetic. They may not have intentionally responded that way and were perhaps caught up in their own problems, were busy or lacked understanding of your situation. In truth, even the most empathetic of us do this. However, it’s important to remember that empathy can make or break relationships. It is a skill, which can reap many benefits in professional and personal relationships.

A study in a Korean hospital involving 550 outpatients found that patients who perceived their physicians to be more empathetic were more satisfied and compliant with their physicians. Organisations are also seeing the need of having leaders who are able to be empathetic.

Satya Nadella, Chief Executive Officer of Microsoft Corp., speaks at the Microsoft Annual Shareholders Meeting in Bellevue, Washington, on November 30, 2016.

Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, said during a recent interview with CBS Good Morning that “empathy is everything even in a business context… there was no way we could innovate without having a deeper sense of empathy.”

Furthermore, The Centre for Creative Leadership analyzed data from 6,731 managers from 38 countries (including Singapore, Hong Kong and China) and found that managers who showed more empathy were viewed as better performers.

Paul Ekman, an American psychologist, posits that there are three types of empathy. The first being “cognitive empathy” which is about knowing and understanding how someone else feels. The second is “emotional empathy” which is experiencing the feelings of the other person. The third is “compassionate empathy” which is feeling and understanding what another person is going through but moved to do something about the situation.

More on Forbes: Beanbags And Pingpong Tables Are Useless, Inner Playfulness Is The Key To A Healthy Workplace

Cognitive and emotional empathy alone each have their flaws. Thinking and not feeling about how someone feels has a level of detachment and complete feeling can overwhelm a person from taking productive action. Below are 5 tips that will help you develop compassionate empathy with those around you.

1. Be present

Upon analyzing data from 14,000 college students it was found that college kids are 40% less empathetic than people 20-30 years ago. 30 years ago the pace of our lives was slower, we didn’t have constant streams of distractions pulling us in all directions. To develop compassionate empathy, you’ll need to learn to cultivate “being present.” This means being aware of what is here and now, rather than reacting to what is happening and being said. Only by being present with the person you are with can you be empathetic . A simple technique to cultivate presence is to pay attention to your in and out breath every time you notice your mind wandering.

Shutterstock

2. Actively listen

Often we come to conversations with certain preconceived notions, thoughts, beliefs and ideas. This doesn’t enable us to listen and hear what someone else has to say. Hearing what someone is saying as if you’re hearing it for the first time will enable you to actively listen. This can be done by paraphrasing what the person has said and clarifying what they’ve said with questions.

3. Put yourself in another’s shoes

A study published in the Journal of Neuroscience found that the more time and attention participants spent thinking empathically, the more sensitive they became. Putting yourself in someone else’s shoes and understanding how they feel and think can help you to develop empathy. You can do this by taking 2-3 minutes to imagine what the other party is going through.

More on Forbes: Business Wisdom From Oprah, Sheryl Sandberg And Other Women Entrepreneurs

Sheryl Sandberg, Chief Operating Officer (COO) of Facebook, speaks during a session at the Congress center on the second day of the World Economic Forum, on January 18, 2017 in Davos. (Photo credit: FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images)

4. Take action

When Sheryl Sandberg, COO of Facebook, lost her partner, she often had people ask her “Is there anything I can do?” She says that “Instead of offering to do anything, just do something.” You are then taking away the burden from that person to think of something when they’ve got enough on their plate to deal with.

If you are afraid to take action you could instead offer 2-3 options of what you could do for them and ask the person to choose what they would prefer. This shows that you are committed to really making a difference.

5. Take good care of yourself

To be compassionate towards another you first have to start with yourself. There is a saying “How you treat others is a reflection of how you treat yourself.” Don’t leave yourself empty with trying to help others and not taking care of yourself. Take time every week to do something you enjoy and recharge your batteries.

Never underestimate the value of showing empathy to a friend, colleague, client or family member. Cultivate some of these habits, grow your compassionate empathy muscles and reap the benefits in your professional and personal life.

Bhali Gill is the Founder of Corporate Wellbeing and is a Psychologist (org), Coach and Trainer.

Mugabe clings to power: Zimbabwe's despot leader is thrown out of his party but remains president - Daily Mail

Mugabe clings to power: Zimbabwe's despot leader is thrown out of his party but remains president as thousands march on Harare chanting ‘remove the dictator’ demanding the end of his 37-year reign

During his 37-year reign any opposition to his rule was brutally crushed but crowds were defiant on streets

Crowd voiced support for sacked vice-president Emmanuel ‘Crocodile’ Mnangagwa, favourite to take over

Formerly loyal party members openly called Mr Mugabe a ‘dictator’ and war veterans gave him 24 hours to go

Mugabe himself remained defiant in his Blue Roof mansion, refusing to step down despite the pressure on him

BY MAILONLINE REPORTER

PUBLISHED: 20:19 AEDT, 18 November 2017

Thousands of people took to the streets of Harare today in a historic show of unity to demand an end to the 37-year reign of dictator Robert Mugabe.

Military helicopters flew low overhead as huge crowds marched into the centre of the city, waving Zimbabwean flags and chanting ‘remove the dictator’ and ‘Mugabe, our country is not your property’.

Some also shouted ‘Ngwena, Ngwena’, or ‘Crocodile, Crocodile’, in support of sacked vice-president Emmanuel ‘Crocodile’ Mnangagwa, the favourite to become the next leader.

Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets of Harare to demand the end of dictator Robert Mugabe's rule

Zimbabweans carried their country's flag and chanted ‘remove the dictator’ and ‘Mugabe, our country is not your property’ as they voiced their demand for him to leave office after 37 years in power

Some in the crowd also voiced their support for sacked vice-president Emmanuel ‘Crocodile’ Mnangagwa, the favourite to become the next leader, by shouting ‘Ngwena, Ngwena’, or ‘Crocodile, Crocodile’, in support of sacked vice-president Emmanuel ‘Crocodile’ Mnangagwa

Mugabe has been given an ultimatum of 24 hours to resign by the powerful National Liberation War Veterans Association

The protest is a turning point for the southern African state, where for four decades the public criticism of Mugabe has been brutally stamped out

The protest is a turning point for the southern African state, where for four decades the public criticism of Mugabe has been brutally stamped out

During Mugabe's rule, forced rallies were often staged to support him but there was not a single counter-protester coming out in support of him

During Mugabe's rule, forced rallies were often staged to support him but there was not a single counter-protester coming out in support of him

The mass show of defiance comes as Mugabe has been dramatically thrown out of his own party today after all 10 provinces of Zimbabwe passed a no-confidence motion in the dictator.

It makes it almost impossible for him to continue to cling to power. The decision will be ratified tomorrow and put into effect next week.

The 93-year-old will be removed as the head of ZANU-PF but technically remains as president. However, Emmerson ‘the Crocodile’ Mnangagwa, the sacked Vice President who returned to Zimbabwe on Wednesday, will be installed as the new party leader, it was confirmed today.

It was an unprecedented show of defiance and unity in this notoriously divided country, as ordinary Zimbabweans from across the political spectrum came together as one to oppose the dictator.

Zimbabweans from all party of society came together in a show of unity to demand the removal of President Robert Mugabe Zimbabweans from all party of society came together in a show of unity to demand the removal of President Robert Mugabe

Members of the powerful war veterans, traditionally a source of support for Mugabe, stand guard at the stage prior to the mass action protests

Members of the powerful war veterans, traditionally a source of support for Mugabe, stand guard at the stage prior to the mass action protests

There were fears the opposition rally would degenerate into violence, as happened in 2013 when crowds went on the rampage in Harare after an opposition rally +20

There were fears the opposition rally would degenerate into violence, as happened in 2013 when crowds went on the rampage in Harare after an opposition rally

There was spirit of harmony in the crowd the sense of liberation from the shackles of the dictator¿s secret police was tangible.

There was spirit of harmony in the crowd the sense of liberation from the shackles of the dictator’s secret police was tangible.

All 10 provinces controlled by the Zanu-PF also passed no confidence motions in the leader, heaping further pressure on him to step down

All 10 provinces controlled by the Zanu-PF also passed no confidence motions in the leader, heaping further pressure on him to step down

Mugabe was mocked for his record in the war background that led to the foundation of Zimbabwe with one ware veteran saying: 'He only came to the Front once. The closest Mugabe ever was to the fighting was 400km away.¿ +20

Mugabe was mocked for his record in the war background that led to the foundation of Zimbabwe with one ware veteran saying: 'He only came to the Front once. The closest Mugabe ever was to the fighting was 400km away.’

Ordinary Zimbabweans said they felt like they were dreaming after the 37-year-old dictatorship crumbled before their eyes

Ordinary Zimbabweans said they felt like they were dreaming after the 37-year-old dictatorship crumbled before their eyes

Even formerly loyal party members openly called Mr Mugabe a ¿dictator¿ and united their efforts in trying to force him to stand down

Even formerly loyal party members openly called Mr Mugabe a ‘dictator’ and united their efforts in trying to force him to stand down

Ecstatic crowds marched through central Harare, cheering and hugging soldiers, honking horns, dancing, and singing: ‘Bob, you have sold out the country, remember we are the ones who put you there and we are now removing you.’

Ordinary Zimbabweans said they felt like they were dreaming after the 37-year-old dictatorship crumbled before their eyes.

Today’s protest represented a turning point for the southern African state, where for four decades the public criticism of Mr Mugabe has been met with brutal punishment and even death.

It came as Mr Mugabe was given an ultimatum of 24 hours to resign by the powerful National Liberation War Veterans Association. In a press conference, a spokesman for the group mocked the elderly dictator, saying: ‘Mugabe has no war background. He only came to the Front once. The closest Mugabe ever was to the fighting was 400km away.’

During the dictator’s rule, forced rallies were often staged to support him. By comparison, everybody attended today’s march of their own free will and there was not a single counter-protestor coming out in support of Mr Mugabe.

There were fears that today’s event may degenerate into violence, as happened in 2013 when crowds went on the rampage in Harare after an opposition rally.

The march began in a spirit of harmony, however, and the sense of liberation from the shackles of the dictator’s secret police was tangible.

Crowds gathered at football pitches close to the city centre and marched towards Freedom Square, formerly known as the Robert Mugabe Square, where a number of political leaders from all parties were to address demonstrators.

The security forces stood by as the demonstration, in contrast to previous year when protests were brutally quashed

The security forces stood by as the demonstration, in contrast to previous year when protests were brutally quashed

Buses were laid on by the Zanu-PF to ferry thousands of people to the capital to take part in the protest +20

Buses were laid on by the Zanu-PF to ferry thousands of people to the capital to take part in the protest

A woman holds picture of General Constantino Chiwenga, who led the coup against Robert Mugabe +20

A woman holds picture of General Constantino Chiwenga, who led the coup against Robert Mugabe

Some of the money for mobilising demonstrators was provided by the army, which spearheaded the attempt to remove Mugabe

Some of the money for mobilising demonstrators was provided by the army, which spearheaded the attempt to remove Mugabe

The historic rally was all the more remarkable for having been organised by Mr Mugabe’s own party, the Zanu-PF, which until Tuesday had treated the despot like a god.

All that changed today as formerly loyal party members openly called Mr Mugabe a ‘dictator’ and united their efforts in trying to force him to stand down.

Last night, activists armed with megaphones toured towns and villages all over the country in Zanu-PF branded vehicles, calling for as many people to attend the demonstration as possible.

Opposition parties followed the Zanu-PF’s lead, mobilising their grassroots network to ensure a major turnout amongst their own supporters.

It is thought that some of the money for mobilising demonstrators was provided by the army, which spearheaded the dramatic attempt to remove Mr Mugabe.

Buses were laid on by the Zanu-PF to ferry thousands of people to the capital to take part in the protest, thought to be the biggest demonstration of its kind in Zimbabwean history.

Mr Mugabe, meanwhile, remained defiant in his Blue Roof mansion, refusing to step down despite the massive pressure heaped upon him by his political rivals, foreign leaders and now his own people.

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