Democrats Mobilized by Anger at Trump Surge in Texas Primaries - Bloomberg

Democrats Mobilized by Anger at Trump Surge in Texas Primaries

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March 7, 2018, 5:59 PM GMT+11

Strong turnout recorded in first primary of 2018 campaign

Influx of women candidates reflected in state results

Rep. Beto O'Rourke, right. Photographer: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Texas Democrats surged to voting booths in the first primary of the 2018 election campaign, providing a clear demonstration of a fired-up party on pace to send a significant number of women to face Republican congressional candidates in November.

The Democratic turnout Tuesday was particularly strong in affluent suburban areas that are models for the kind of congressional districts the party is targeting in its quest to win control of the U.S. House in midterm elections that will be the first national referendum on Donald Trump’s presidency.

With 97 percent of precincts counted, the 1,027,160 votes tabulated in the Democratic Senate primary easily exceed the 2014 total, 510,009. The energy displayed by Democrats in a state that traditionally leans Republican may bode well for the minority party in Washington, if it can be sustained throughout the year and replicated in areas with competitive races.

In the U.S. Senate primary, incumbent Ted Cruz easily won the Republican nomination and will face Democratic Representative Beto O’Rourke in November. Cruz is favored to win re-election in a state where Trump won by 9 percentage points and the last Senate election Democrats won was in 1988. While Democrats cast significantly more ballots than they had in the last midterm, Republicans still outnumbered them statewide, casting 1.5 million votes in the Republican Senate primary.

Women on Ballots

The nation’s second-largest state will have at least 13 Democratic women on November’s ballot running for the House from its 36 districts. The total number of Democratic women on the ballot won’t be known until final vote tallies are complete and, in some cases, runoffs on May 22 that were triggered because no candidate secured a majority of the vote.

Democratic energy and the fact that at least eight Texans will leave the U.S. House before the next term swelled the number of primary candidates. For the first time in decades, the Democratic Party fielded at least one candidate in every Texas congressional district.

As Republicans nationally confront Democratic energy spurred by anger with Trump, they’re facing historical trends favoring the party out of power, retirements in their ranks, discouraging polling and a record of generally poor showings in local, state and special elections last year.

House Battle

A switch in House control is well within reach of Democrats when compared with historical averages. They need a net gain of 24 seats, and the party holding the White House has averaged a net loss of 26 in midterm elections since the end of World War II.

Although Democrats need just two seats to claim the Senate, they have a bigger challenge there because they’re defending 26 seats in the upper chamber, compared to just eight for Republicans.

The turnout strength among Democrats in Texas was on display in suburban districts that are the main targets of Democrats. The balloting in the 7th congressional district near Houston and the 32nd congressional district in the Dallas area were well ahead of totals recorded in the 2014 primary.

Both of those districts were won by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election and are among at least three in the state that Democrats hope to flip from Republican control in their efforts to win the House. Both of those districts will hold runoffs to pick the Democratic candidate.

In the 7th, Democratic candidate Laura Moser advanced, after the national committee that oversees the party’s House election efforts took the unusual step of trying to disparage her campaign because it fears she’s too liberal to win a general election. She’ll be joined by attorney Lizzie Fletcher in a runoff for the right to take on GOP Representative John Culberson in an affluent and highly educated area that Clinton narrowly won.

Democratic Fractures

In the Senate race, some of the Democratic Party’s fractures could be seen in the results, with Sema Hernandez, a self-described “progressive" and follower of 2016 presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders, recording a healthy share of the party’s vote.

Before the primary culled the field, there were 50 women running for the House in Texas, up from 13 in 2014 and 18 in 2016, according to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. Thirty-seven of them are Democrats, almost matching the total of 38 Democratic women who sought House seats in Texas in the three previous election cycles combined.

The primary election season won’t end until September, although the bulk of the state winnowing contests will be held in May and June.

Next up on the election calendar, on March 13, is a surprisingly competitive special election in a southwestern Pennsylvania congressional district. Trump plans to travel there on Saturday in hopes of saving the seat for his party.

— With assistance by Gregory Giroux