Brussels hopes for Ankara thaw after US-Turkey spat EU sees opportunity to woo Erdogan whose help it needs in Syria and over migration - Financial Times

August 20, 2018.

Brussels hopes for Ankara thaw after US-Turkey spat
EU sees opportunity to woo Erdogan whose help it needs in Syria and over migration

Mehreen Khan in Brussels, Laura Pitel in Istanbul and Tobias Buck in Berlin

As diplomatic relations between the US and Turkey slump to fresh lows, there is quiet optimism in Europe that Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s tussles with Donald Trump will help to strengthen Ankara’s strained ties with EU capitals.

“Erdogan is learning who his real enemies are — and it’s not Europe,” said one EU diplomat last week following a tumultuous period in which the Turkish government has traded tit-for-tat barbs with the White House and outlined emergency measures to stem a sharp slide in the lira.

Despite the financial turbulence in Ankara, EU officials point to a welcome thawing in tensions with Turkey, including the government's decision last week to release from prison two Greek soldiers suspected of espionage and the detained national head of Amnesty International.

That the release orders, long called for by the EU, came in the aftermath of Ankara’s spat with Washington was “no coincidence”, said one Brussels official.

It prompted Jean-Claude Juncker, EU commission president, to make some of the warmest remarks about Mr Erdogan’s government from Brussels in many months. “Turkey has nothing to fear from its European neighbours,” said Mr Juncker. “We want to see a democratic, stable and prosperous Turkey.”

Dimitris Avramopoulos, the EU’s Greek commissioner for migration, said the move was an “important step for the relations between Turkey and Greece, and the EU as a whole”.

Ankara’s ties with European capitals were thrown into turmoil in the wake of a violent coup attempt in 2016. European leaders voiced alarm over the vast purge that followed, which was accompanied by a crackdown on media, civil society and the Kurdish opposition.

Turkey’s EU accession process was consigned to the deep freeze, while plans to grant visa-free travel to Turkish citizens to the Schengen passport-free area and an upgrade of a customs union agreement have become bogged down.

Mr Erdogan also accused Germany’s government of behaving like Nazis, hit out at Austria’s coalition for anti-Muslim bigotry, and branded the EU hypocrites over its treatment of Turkey.

Yet, conscious of the risks to the economy of such disputes with a bloc that is Turkey’s biggest trading partner, Ankara has quietly launched a drive for a reset.

In Brussels, there is renewed hope that Mr Erdogan’s flare-up with Washington will bring Turkey closer to the EU and help repair strained relations with a Nato ally whose co-operation they require in Syria and over migration.

A senior EU official said that despite Europe’s spats with Mr Erdogan, the union had clear interests in aligning with Turkey against Mr Trump’s economic aggression. “The geostrategic interests will dominate,” said the official.

Signs of a detente have been underlined by a series of telephone calls last week between the Turkish president and EU capitals, including to Germany’s Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron of France.

Mevlut Cavusoglu, Turkey’s foreign minister, will also attend a gathering of his EU counterparts in Vienna at the end of August.

Top of Brussels’ concerns about Turkey’s stability is a landmark migration deal struck with Ankara that has helped staunch the flow of Syrian refugees into the continent since 2016.

Under the deal, EU governments have already committed to providing €3bn in aid, mostly to charities and non-governmental organisations working with nearly 4m Syrians in Turkey.

EU governments in June signed off on another €3bn commitment to be spread over 2019 and 2020. Diplomats say they are confident that Turkey’s economic troubles will not jeopardise the migrant accord.

“There is no incentive for Erdogan to complicate his relationship with Europe now, jeopardising visas, more cash and the refugee deal,” said Mujtaba Rahman, lead Europe analyst at Eurasia Group.

Turkey’s financial turmoil
A chance to reset Europe’s relations with Turkey
Europe’s main economic exposure to a financial collapse in Turkey is concentrated in pockets of its banking system. A German official said the spillover risks to Germany’s economy from Turkey were “manageable” but could become significant if the situation spiralled out of control.

“If you bear in mind how large their economy is, how close our trade relationship is and how many Turks live in Germany, it has the potential to become very dangerous,” he said.

But Brussels has limited financial tools to help a non-EU country in financial trouble.

The bloc’s main instrument of macro-financial assistance can only be activated in conjunction with an IMF bailout. Turkey has not yet made any request to the IMF for help. A senior EU official added that the EU was not yet exploring more “creative” ways to assist Turkey.

Although they have found common ground in their distaste for Mr Trump's actions, European officials also continue to be alarmed by erosion of the rule of law under Mr Erdogan’s watch.

At least seven German citizens remain behind bars in Turkey on charges that Berlin views as political. Diplomats stress that progress on accession talks or a customs union upgrade would still require a drastic change in the human rights situation.

Ministers in Berlin have also urged Turkey to release the US pastor Andrew Brunson, whose detention triggered the current row with the US administration. “That would make it considerably easier to solve the economic problems that exist,” said Heiko Maas, German foreign minister, last week.